Derrick Henry

[gcmmidwest 99]

Anybody think he comes out banging in Baltimore or is he on a downward spiral...which tends to happen when rb's hit 30

[polecatt 404]

It will be interesting to see. I think he will be pretty good this season but probably not his peak level.

Lamar Jackson is sure to take away some numbers.

[weepaws 2,488]

He’s going to fall into the end zone at least a dozen times.  He’s not what he once was, But he’s on a team that will help him with positive production.  I’m ranking him inside my top ten 14 team non ppr.  Thanks. 

[IGotWorms 3,363]

He’s still been pretty darn good the last few years. Not quite like the peak of his heyday but also not in precipitous decline.

I like him if you don’t have to pay a premium. RB15 or so sounds good for most leagues 

[weepaws 2,488]

21 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

He’s still been pretty darn good the last few years. Not quite like the peak of his heyday but also not in precipitous decline.

I like him if you don’t have to pay a premium. RB15 or so sounds good for most leagues 

I don’t know why you would knock him down from last season, why? 

He was #7 non ppr on a horrible team, now he’s on a much more explosive offense, he’s going to be a top ten rb easy.  

But I'm still wondering why you seem being lower than he was last season.  Thanks. 

[IGotWorms 3,363]

49 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I don’t know why you would knock him down from last season, why? 

He was #7 non ppr on a horrible team, now he’s on a much more explosive offense, he’s going to be a top ten rb easy.  

But I'm still wondering why you seem being lower than he was last season.  Thanks. 

He’s a year older but also I was talking more PPR or .5ppr

[weepaws 2,488]

2 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

He’s a year older but also I was talking more PPR or .5ppr

He was #10 ppr, #8 half ppr.  Now he’s going to a much better offense.    Thanks. 

[IGotWorms 3,363]

17 minutes ago, weepaws said:

He was #10 ppr, #8 half ppr.  Now he’s going to a much better offense.    Thanks. 

Yeah but he’s got a QB that may snake some yards and especially TDs and he’s a year older. Thanks

[weepaws 2,488]

41 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Yeah but he’s got a QB that may snake some yards and especially TDs and he’s a year older. Thanks

Edwards had 13 rushing tds with the same snake.  Henry will at least match last season numbers.  1100 plus rush yards, 12 plus rushing tds, 25 plus rec.  He’s a top ten rb.   

Anyway just wondering your thoughts, you answered them.  Thanks. 

[Ray_T 597]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

He was #10 ppr, #8 half ppr.  Now he’s going to a much better offense.    Thanks. 

I agree.  he is in a far better offense.

and a better team.

but he is a year older.   but the two will roughly offset each other.

I think he does about what he did last year.  maybe slightly better because the caliber of the team is that much higher than the one he departed from. 

I do think this is likely the last or second last year for Henry as a premium back but I do think hes draftable.   just dont overpay.   when RB's are at his age you do not overpay.

[weepaws 2,488]

I think Henry knows he’s near the end , And so do the Ravens, Great placement for both parties, going out with a Super Bowl.  

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,146]

Baltimore's offense is substantially more efficient and productive than Tennessee's, so I can see Henry getting about 60 to 70 yards rushing a game, with at least (yes, at least), 1 rushing TD a game.  I think there's a legit shot that he has about 1100 yards (1200 ceiling), but well over 20 TD's (yup... like 24).  I think they get into the green zone a lot and use Henry a lot, to keep Jackson from doing it.  I think the addition of Henry hurts Jackson a touch.  Jackson, per 17 games played, averages just over 1,000 yards rushing and 6 TD's.  I think with Henry, that drops to about 600 and 3.

[TBayXXXVII 2,146]

9 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Yeah but he’s got a QB that may snake some yards and especially TDs and he’s a year older. Thanks

I think the opposite happens.  I think they added Henry to not just replace Gus Edwards, but a slight uptick in production.  Edwards can't handle the workload and get the production that Henry can.  Edwards is best at 10 carries per game, Henry can get 15.  Plus, they still have Justice Hill and I think they still bring in someone else to tally a handful of touches a game.  I think the addition of Henry is to reduce the rushing workload of Jackson.

[Showboat 145]

It all makes sense to project that Henry should have a good season and score a lot of TDs, but the cliff usually comes up abruptly for 30+ year old RBs.  I'm really torn of on if he will have a season pushing 20 TDs or just be ineffective or spend most of his time in the training room.

[TBayXXXVII 2,146]

44 minutes ago, Showboat said:

It all makes sense to project that Henry should have a good season and score a lot of TDs, but the cliff usually comes up abruptly for 30+ year old RBs.  I'm really torn of on if he will have a season pushing 20 TDs or just be ineffective or spend most of his time in the training room.

I don't disagree really.  Henry is a different kind of player and going from a crap team to a Super Bowl contender and that usually can invigorate a player.  I think that even though he'll be 30, he still averaged over 4 ypc and still rushed for over 1100 yards and 12 td's on a team where he was the only weapon.  Also, it was the least amount of touches he had in the last 4 seasons where he played a full season.  He averaged 16.5 carries per game last year.  Even if he drops to 12, I think with that team and OLine, he could average over 4.5 ypc.  I think 13.5 for 4.7 is reasonable.  The lighter workload will still yield him similar production and fresher legs.  I think they all but eliminate his usage in the passing game for that reason.  I don't think he gets many breakaway TD's, like he's done in the past, but I think he could quite literally have a dozen td runs of 5 yards and less.

Now, in 2025?  That may be a completely different story... but this year, if people are allowing him to fall, I have no problems in taking him.

 

[gridiron whirlwinds 2]

IMO Henry is gold in Baltimore

[weepaws 2,488]

Ravens bought Henry for this season only, This is there run for the title.  Henry isn’t going to be what he once was, but he’ll be a top ten rb for this season.  I think he has one more 1000 plus and a bunch of tds.  He’s a steal in the second.  In my non ppr 14 team I would gladly make him my first rb if the others studs are taking before my pick.  

[IGotWorms 3,363]

7 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think the opposite happens.  I think they added Henry to not just replace Gus Edwards, but a slight uptick in production.  Edwards can't handle the workload and get the production that Henry can.  Edwards is best at 10 carries per game, Henry can get 15.  Plus, they still have Justice Hill and I think they still bring in someone else to tally a handful of touches a game.  I think the addition of Henry is to reduce the rushing workload of Jackson.

I’m sure that’s the idea in theory, but when you’re four yards out and Jackson is basically guaranteed to score on an option run vs having Henry jam it up the middle for one yard or no gain… it’s still gonna be Jackson.

Don’t get me wrong, like Henry as a pick especially in non PPR leagues, but when the rubber meets the road Jackson is still getting his 

[TBayXXXVII 2,146]

6 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

I’m sure that’s the idea in theory, but when you’re four yards out and Jackson is basically guaranteed to score on an option run vs having Henry jam it up the middle for one yard or no gain… it’s still gonna be Jackson.

Don’t get me wrong, like Henry as a pick especially in non PPR leagues, but when the rubber meets the road Jackson is still getting his 

I do think that's possible, and likely at some point... but I think the hand off to Henry is 'Plan A' and possibly 'Plan B', and the contingency plan will be to go with Jackson.

With Jackson's new deal, I think preserving him is Baltimore's main objective.  I think that's why they brought Henry in.  I think they call more run plays (hand offs), to limit Jackson's adlibbing to the run and at the goal line is where I think a lot of that will take place.

Last year Jackson had only 1 rushing TD from inside 7 yards and 1 the year before.  I think that remains the plan in place.

[Ray_T 597]

5 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

but I think he could quite literally have a dozen td runs of 5 yards and less.

yeah, I think the value in Henry goes up in terms of TD.    likely declines elsewhere.

but TD's are where the fantasy points are.

[TBayXXXVII 2,146]

26 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

yeah, I think the value in Henry goes up in terms of TD.    likely declines elsewhere.

but TD's are where the fantasy points are.

Yup.