Trump talk only- no Eagles talk allowed (Steelers talk is OK though)

[Horseman 2,466]

October Surprise:

"Touchdown Timmy"

[F1erce 88]

5 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

You seem to dummy.

Tilt

[The Real timschochet 6,779]

57 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

My point is merely that, for someone like @The Real timschochetwho might put value in Nate Silver, the fact that he is advising Polymarket lends credibility to them.

I have no opinion about Polymarket and I didn’t discount them, I only pointed out that their shift towards Trump seems to be almost completely based on one or two polls from Pennsylvania that show him ahead by a couple of points, within the margin of error. The majority of polls from Pennsylvania still show Harris ahead, or tied there. That was the only reason for my skepticism. But who knows? Whoever wins Pennsylvania is very likely to win the Presidency, I think we can all agree on that. 
 

Last month, based on trends, I was probably getting a little too overconfident about Kamala Harris’ chances. I predicted her success would be in 3 stages: first she would catch up to Trump. Then she would overtake him slightly. Then she would jump out to a commanding lead. The first two happened. The third one didn’t. After she slightly overtook him, he didn’t fall back as I anticipated. Instead he has stayed right with her, neck and neck, each day a different one in front. Now- guys like @Horseman and @Jon_mx seem confident that actually her momentum has completely died and Trump has taken the lead to stay, and that there is a hidden Trump vote ala 2016. Meanwhile there are liberals here and elsewhere who believe that Kamala is actually way more ahead than we think due to young people not being considered strongly enough by the pollsters- there is a hidden Harris vote ala 2022. 
 

Me? I dunno anymore. Obviously I really really want her to win and my views are probably shaded by that. I hope for the best. But if you’re asking me to project my thoughts remain defined by the thread title: dead heat. 

[thegeneral 3,218]

4 minutes ago, F1erce said:

Tilt

I’m going crazy!

[The Real timschochet 6,779]

This is a good article reflecting the race at the moment: 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/polls-kamala-harris-trump-honeymoon-b2627499.html

The headline might be a little too negative for Harris (IMO) but the article itself seems dead on: it’s just too close to call. 
 

One thing that looks likely now: the Senate is going to go Republican because Tester is going to lose. If you listen to MSNBC they’ve basically written Tester off and are pinning their hopes on Texas. But I simply do not buy that Ted Cruz is going to lose that race. I’d love it if he did but I just do not believe in Democratic victories in the Lone Star state until they actually happen. 

[EternalShinyAndChrome 4,111]

4 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

I’m going crazy!

Going? 

You arrived at crazy years ago.

[thegeneral 3,218]

4 minutes ago, EternalShinyAndChrome said:

Going? 

You arrived at crazy years ago.

There’s the rapier wit!

In any case…if you have a friend who says California may flip red, I think you can disregard their hunches.

[TimHauck 2,879]

31 minutes ago, jonmx said:

Please do, and promise me you will bump it when it nails the outcome.  

Sure, and when it doesn’t you’ll say the Dems cheated.  Win win for you!

[The Real timschochet 6,779]

And…Kamala retakes the lead in Michigan. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/10/11/michigan-2024-trump-harris-polls-harris-leads-in-latest-survey/

Back and forth we go…

[BrahmaBulls 767]

38 minutes ago, F1erce said:

No one cares what you think. HTH

Except his circle jerk.  

[EternalShinyAndChrome 4,111]

45 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

There’s the rapier wit!

In any case…if you have a friend who says California may flip red, I think you can disregard their hunches.

okay, crazy.   

[Gepetto 1,368]

Donald Trump today at rally in Aurora, Colorado said: 

“We will send elite squads of Ice, Border Patrol and federal law enforcement officers to arrest and deport every last illegal alien gang member until there is not a single one left in this country,”  

He also called for the death penalty to be used for any migrant that kills an American citizen or a law enforcement officer. 

[TimHauck 2,879]

4 hours ago, Strike said:

I know, right?  He sounds just like Tim!!

Do you think Trump has any chance of winning CA?

[The Real timschochet 6,779]

30 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

Donald Trump today at rally in Aurora, Colorado said: 

“We will send elite squads of Ice, Border Patrol and federal law enforcement officers to arrest and deport every last illegal alien gang member until there is not a single one left in this country,”  

He also called for the death penalty to be used for any migrant that kills an American citizen or a law enforcement officer. 

Right. And they’re not going to distinguish between actual gang members (who are few and far between) and anyone with brown skin. It’s focking scary. This is fascism 101. 
 

Here is General Milley, a guy who knows Trump well: 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-fascist-general-woodward-book-b2627972.html

Milley is a student of history, he knows fascism. He called Trump the most dangerous guy ever. How can you and others ignore this? 

[Gepetto 1,368]

7 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Right. And they’re not going to distinguish between actual gang members (who are few and far between) and anyone with brown skin. It’s focking scary. This is fascism 101. 
 

Here is General Milley, a guy who knows Trump well: 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-fascist-general-woodward-book-b2627972.html

Milley is a student of history, he knows fascism. He called Trump the most dangerous guy ever. How can you and others ignore this? 

We will see what the majority of the electorate feels about it on or soon after November 5th.

[The Real timschochet 6,779]

Just now, Gepetto said:

We will see what the majority of the electorate feels about it on or soon after November 5th.

No we won’t. Most people really don’t understand what Trump intends to do here. I can tell you don’t. 

[BrahmaBulls 767]

10 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Right. And they’re not going to distinguish between actual gang members (who are few and far between) and anyone with brown skin. It’s focking scary. This is fascism 101. 
 

Here is General Milley, a guy who knows Trump well: 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-fascist-general-woodward-book-b2627972.html

Milley is a student of history, he knows fascism. He called Trump the most dangerous guy ever. How can you and others ignore this? 

I'm all for throwing out illegal gang members.  You can find an illegal not in a gang to paint and mow grass for you.

[The Real timschochet 6,779]

12 minutes ago, BrahmaBulls said:

I'm all for throwing out illegal gang members.  You can find an illegal not in a gang to paint and mow grass for you.

How do you determine which is which? 

[Gepetto 1,368]

28 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

No we won’t. Most people really don’t understand what Trump intends to do here. I can tell you don’t. 

Your using fear tactics just like the rest of the Left does. There is serious Venezeulan illegals that are gangs controlling segments of cities using MOB type force and scare tactics. That needs to be fixed. Don't you care about the violent people committing heinous crimes and controlling living of others that are in our country illegally?

[Gepetto 1,368]

17 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

How do you determine which is which? 

Same way you determine any criminal. Make a case, make an arrest, have a trial. If not sure, just send them back to the country they came from. They certainly don't belong here.

[IGotWorms 4,058]

3 hours ago, Horseman said:

 

WI and MI are next.

Can you read your own fockin map?

[IGotWorms 4,058]

3 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

This is a good article reflecting the race at the moment: 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/polls-kamala-harris-trump-honeymoon-b2627499.html

The headline might be a little too negative for Harris (IMO) but the article itself seems dead on: it’s just too close to call. 
 

One thing that looks likely now: the Senate is going to go Republican because Tester is going to lose. If you listen to MSNBC they’ve basically written Tester off and are pinning their hopes on Texas. But I simply do not buy that Ted Cruz is going to lose that race. I’d love it if he did but I just do not believe in Democratic victories in the Lone Star state until they actually happen. 

I don’t know how Tester has survived as long as he has. Montana has gone full retard. Virtually indistinguishable from Idaho now 

[The Real timschochet 6,779]

6 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

Your using fear tactics just like the rest of the Left does. There is serious Venezeulan illegals that are gangs controlling segments of cities using MOB type force and scare tactics. That needs to be fixed. Don't you care about the violent people committing heinous crimes and controlling living of others that are in our country illegally?

Of course I do. Find them and deport them. But again I don’t believe Trump cares to distinguish. Fascists don’t distinguish. 

[The Real timschochet 6,779]

7 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

Same way you determine any criminal. Make a case, make an arrest, have a trial. If not sure, just send them back to the country they came from. They certainly don't belong here.

Agreed. That is NOT what Trump is proposing. 

[BrahmaBulls 767]

Just now, The Real timschochet said:

Of course I do. Find them and deport them. But again I don’t believe Trump cares to distinguish. Fascists don’t distinguish. 

Fear mongerer.  You're desperate.

[Gepetto 1,368]

1 minute ago, The Real timschochet said:

Of course I do. Find them and deport them. But again I don’t believe Trump cares to distinguish. Fascists don’t distinguish. 

Trump won't be making the decision in local areas. He isn't a fascist in the least. Every illegal should be removed from the country and that's not fascism, that's upholding the law.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,450]

51 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Right. And they’re not going to distinguish between actual gang members (who are few and far between) and anyone with brown skin. It’s focking scary. This is fascism 101. 
 

Here is General Milley, a guy who knows Trump well: 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-fascist-general-woodward-book-b2627972.html

Milley is a student of history, he knows fascism. He called Trump the most dangerous guy ever. How can you and others ignore this? 

How did Miley’s white supremacists in the ranks witch hunt go? As if he’s one to talk. 

[The Real timschochet 6,779]

1 minute ago, Gepetto said:

Trump won't be making the decision in local areas. He isn't a fascist in the least. Every illegal should be removed from the country and that's not fascism, that's upholding the law.

A moment ago you were for deporting violent criminals and gang members. I’m with you there. Now you’re for deporting 15-25 million people. I’m not with you there and it’s never going to happen anyhow. But even to try is fascism. 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,450]

6 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Of course I do. Find them and deport them. But again I don’t believe Trump cares to distinguish. Fascists don’t distinguish. 

Trump says he’s sending in the professionals to distinguish. Perhaps listen to what the man says instead of twisting his words into your fantasy? 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,450]

1 minute ago, The Real timschochet said:

A moment ago you were for deporting violent criminals and gang members. I’m with you there. Now you’re for deporting 15-25 million people. I’m not with you there and it’s never going to happen anyhow. But even to try is fascism. 

Eisenhower was a fascist? 

[Gepetto 1,368]

1 minute ago, The Real timschochet said:

A moment ago you were for deporting violent criminals and gang members. I’m with you there. Now you’re for deporting 15-25 million people. I’m not with you there and it’s never going to happen anyhow. But even to try is fascism. 

I'm for both enforcing harsh penalties on violent criminals (legal or illegal), and I'm pro US Law regarding immigration.

[The Real timschochet 6,779]

3 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Eisenhower was a fascist? 

His deportation of Mexican Americans was illegal and a fascist act, yes. A black stain on what was otherwise a great Presidency. Trump plans to repeat Ike’s mistake x100. Trump is a bad person. 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,450]

7 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

His deportation of Mexican Americans was illegal and a fascist act, yes. A black stain on what was otherwise a great Presidency. Trump plans to repeat Ike’s mistake x100. Trump is a bad person. 

So just clarifying, Eisenhower, the man that defeated real fascism, was himself a fascist. That’s your claim? He deported American citizens, on purpose? 

[The Real timschochet 6,779]

1 minute ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

So just clarifying, Eisenhower, the man that defeated real fascism, was himself a fascist. That’s your claim? He deported American citizens, on purpose? 

No. He was not a fascist. He committed a wrongful act which was partly fascist. I don’t believe he intended to deport American citizens or legal people. Your hero does. That’s the difference. 

[Horseman 2,466]

3 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

I have no opinion about Polymarket and I didn’t discount them, I only pointed out that their shift towards Trump seems to be almost completely based on one or two polls from Pennsylvania that show him ahead by a couple of points, within the margin of error. The majority of polls from Pennsylvania still show Harris ahead, or tied there. That was the only reason for my skepticism. But who knows? Whoever wins Pennsylvania is very likely to win the Presidency, I think we can all agree on that. 
 

Last month, based on trends, I was probably getting a little too overconfident about Kamala Harris’ chances. I predicted her success would be in 3 stages: first she would catch up to Trump. Then she would overtake him slightly. Then she would jump out to a commanding lead. The first two happened. The third one didn’t. After she slightly overtook him, he didn’t fall back as I anticipated. Instead he has stayed right with her, neck and neck, each day a different one in front. Now- guys like @Horseman and @Jon_mx seem confident that actually her momentum has completely died and Trump has taken the lead to stay, and that there is a hidden Trump vote ala 2016. Meanwhile there are liberals here and elsewhere who believe that Kamala is actually way more ahead than we think due to young people not being considered strongly enough by the pollsters- there is a hidden Harris vote ala 2022. 
 

Me? I dunno anymore. Obviously I really really want her to win and my views are probably shaded by that. I hope for the best. But if you’re asking me to project my thoughts remain defined by the thread title: dead heat. 

Polymarket doesn't use polls to determine its movements FFS. So that shows how little you know wtf you're taking about.  

We'd all be better off if you just stopped pretending to know anything. And stopped lying all the time. 

[Horseman 2,466]

33 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Can you read your own fockin map?

Yes.  You don't understand the word "next"?  And its not my map, that's from Real Clear Politics.  A non biased aggregate polling organization.  

Boy you really did fall off the turnip truck didn't you. Try reading a book or something.  

[Hardcore troubadour 15,450]

6 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

No. He was not a fascist. He committed a wrongful act which was partly fascist. I don’t believe he intended to deport American citizens or legal people. Your hero does. That’s the difference. 

Just because your hero rubber stamped millions of migrants and gave them temporary refugee status doesn’t mean they are entitled to remain. I have learned how much the left believes in the rule of law these last four years. Why not in this case? 

[Horseman 2,466]

Polymarket seems to be based on one or two polls!!

HFS how can someone be so clueless.  

[The Real timschochet 6,779]

 

 

5 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Polymarket seems to be based on one or two polls!!

HFS how can someone be so clueless.  

No idea but you demonstrate it on a daily basis. 

[The Real timschochet 6,779]

The difference between the reality of undocumented immigrants and the sheer fantasy that conservatives and Trump have created is wide enough to fill the Grand Canyon.