Marvin Harrison Jr.

[weepaws 3,152]

11 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Harrison is in that WR5 range on talent alone. 

I have no room for Harrison in my top five rankings, in my non, or ppr league.  

[jrokh 608]

17 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Harrison is in that WR5 range on talent alone. 

You must be smoking something mighty fine…

[IGotWorms 4,057]

1 hour ago, jerryskids said:

Cards homer here.  Two things lead me to think that MHJ will NOT be a top-10 WR.

One, he is the 1B receiver IMO; McBride is 1A

Two, the Cards have made it clear that they are going to pound the ball this year.  Last year they were #2 in YPC:

https://www.nfl.com/stats/team-stats/offense/rushing/2023/reg/all

HC Gannon wants to pound more, and they drafted a steamroller TE in the 3rd (Tip Reiman) who basically said he lives to pancake people.  Plus an OG in the 3rd.  The question being discussed locally is how good Murray can be taking snaps under center.

This is not to say that the running game can't open up the passing game, but the Cards are not building to be the "greatest show on... sod that rolls into the stadium."  

I still like MHJ, and think he will be a very good if not great WR in his career.  I may take a shot at him in my deep keeper $$$ league.  But not in the 2nd round.

No

[Maximum Overkill 1,739]

9 hours ago, jrokh said:

You must be smoking something mighty fine…

Yup, and just wait till the pre-season hype train starts. 

[WhiteWonder 2,675]

I don't really care where a receivers QB is rated for fantasy purposes. I think MHJ is in a position to be a target monster in Arizona this season. 

No one would have rated any Raiders QB very highly during 2023 but Davante Adams amassed 175 targets.  I am not suggesting MHJ will get this many targets but the rationale for his fantasy draft capital is similar.  Minshew and Pittman... Carr and Olave....  Fields/Baget and DJ Moore    .... etc.

It's all about opportunity. The guy throwing the ball just needs to be capable of feeding a #1, they don't need to be capable of supporting an elite offense overall. 

 

As for would I draft MHJ and where?  As evidence in the June mock, I would and I would do it early to mid round 3. I do not consider him a must have, a good bit depends on how my first two rounds shake out, but he is definitely up there on my radar.

[Ray_T 739]

6 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

I don't really care where a receivers QB is rated for fantasy purposes. I think MHJ is in a position to be a target monster in Arizona this season. 

No one would have rated any Raiders QB very highly during 2023 but Davante Adams amassed 175 targets.  I am not suggesting MHJ will get this many targets but the rationale for his fantasy draft capital is similar.  Minshew and Pittman... Carr and Olave....  Fields/Baget and DJ Moore    .... etc.

It's all about opportunity. The guy throwing the ball just needs to be capable of feeding a #1, they don't need to be capable of supporting an elite offense overall. 

 

As for would I draft MHJ and where?  As evidence in the June mock, I would and I would do it early to mid round 3. I do not consider him a must have, a good bit depends on how my first two rounds shake out, but he is definitely up there on my radar.

I get that.   you dont care where they are rated, but the QB needs to be good enough to feed a #1.

My point is that some QB are not that good.   and it also depends on which player you evaluate.

in the Raiders offense Adams got 175 targets and 1144 yards which seems good, but when you are used to getting 1500 yards its a bit of a haircut.   so clearly the QB change made the difference there.   most of that is likely efficiency due to having less throws on target. 

so yeah it does make a difference.    Adams is still a #1 WR.  but not an elite #1 like he was before.   but then again I dont know that. O'Connell is the type of QB that fully meets the threshold of a starting calibre QB.   dont get me wrong, I think its amazing that any WR performed that well with him at QB.    But in the end, hes not the QB they need him to be.   Granted, things may change next year, the kid is young.     but he had some ups and downs as young players will have.

[GobbleDog 976]

If Harrison finishes as #10+- wr it would be an absolutely incredible year. So where’s the upside? Nobody really believes he could do much better than that. And where’s the floor…. 25th or so? Lower?  A late 2nd/early 3rd rd pick? 

We’re in uncharted territory here. No rookie wr has ever been drafted this high. I believe Harrison is as good as hyped, but he’s got a lot to overcome - rookie wr, Kyler Murray’s unimpressive passing stats, and a bad Cards team. There’s much safer options at that adp range. 

[Maximum Overkill 1,739]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

If Harrison finishes as #10+- wr it would be an absolutely incredible year. So where’s the upside? Nobody really believes he could do much better than that. And where’s the floor…. 25th or so? Lower?  A late 2nd/early 3rd rd pick? 

We’re in uncharted territory here. No rookie wr has ever been drafted this high. I believe Harrison is as good as hyped, but he’s got a lot to overcome - rookie wr, Kyler Murray’s unimpressive passing stats, and a bad Cards team. There’s much safer options at that adp range. 

McBride caught 81 balls from a hodge podge QB duo. There's no reason why Harrison can't catch 110 without breaking a sweat. Have you seen him play?? 

[WhiteWonder 2,675]

3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I get that.   you dont care where they are rated, but the QB needs to be good enough to feed a #1.

My point is that some QB are not that good.   and it also depends on which player you evaluate.

in the Raiders offense Adams got 175 targets and 1144 yards which seems good, but when you are used to getting 1500 yards its a bit of a haircut.   so clearly the QB change made the difference there.   most of that is likely efficiency due to having less throws on target. 

so yeah it does make a difference.    Adams is still a #1 WR.  but not an elite #1 like he was before.   but then again I dont know that. O'Connell is the type of QB that fully meets the threshold of a starting calibre QB.   dont get me wrong, I think its amazing that any WR performed that well with him at QB.    But in the end, hes not the QB they need him to be.   Granted, things may change next year, the kid is young.     but he had some ups and downs as young players will have.

It was just a quick comparison. In MHJs case I think Murray is better than what Adams was working with last year. 
 

my main point was you don’t have to be a top 10 NFL QB to support a top season for one receiver 

[Ray_T 739]

1 hour ago, WhiteWonder said:

It was just a quick comparison. In MHJs case I think Murray is better than what Adams was working with last year. 
 

my main point was you don’t have to be a top 10 NFL QB to support a top season for one receiver 

Thats fair.   and I guess the question is where to draw the line.

my guess is top 20.    and most of the lower ones on that list can support a #1 but cannot also support a decent #2(fantasy wise)

there are qb in the top 20 that dont feed their #1 enough but those guys typically lose their starting gig within a year if they cannot form a connection with their #1 WR

[weepaws 3,152]

Adams avg was 17th last season in ppr, I’m not certain he’s still a wr1 in ff.  Don’t like the Qb or team situation.  

[GobbleDog 976]

14 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

McBride caught 81 balls from a hodge podge QB duo. There’s no reason why Harrison can’t catch 110

110 receptions would be a rookie record. McBride was force fed targets partly out of necessity with Wr injuries and finished with an ADOT of just 6 yds. Harrison runs deeper routes which requires qb skills.

Murray’s passer rating was 20th last year and 23rd the year prior - he’s never eclipsed 4,000 yds (not much nowadays) - not even on pace in shortened seasons. No Murray Wr has ever had double digit Tds… most was 8 by Hopkins in ‘21. 

[weepaws 3,152]

20 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

110 receptions would be a rookie record. McBride was force fed targets partly out of necessity with Wr injuries and finished with an ADOT of just 6 yds. Harrison runs deeper routes which requires qb skills.

Murray’s passer rating was 20th last year and 23rd the year prior - he’s never eclipsed 4,000 yds (not much nowadays) - not even on pace in shortened seasons. No Murray Wr has ever had double digit Tds… most was 8 by Hopkins in ‘21. 

Hopkins only played 10 games that season, 8 tds in ten games is pretty good imo 

[WhiteWonder 2,675]

instead of using Adams and his QB situation as a comp... you could use Pittman and Minshew.    

Minshew is not someone who would be considered a top 10 fantasy QB but he was good enough to feed Michael Pittman to a WR18 finish (ppg) on only 136 targets. I view Harrison as more talented than Pittman and I think Murray is better than Minshew. 

The other comp would be DJ Moore at WR9 with Tyson Fields at QB

[GobbleDog 976]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Hopkins only played 10 games that season, 8 tds in ten games is pretty good imo 

Yeah, but that seems like the outlier, not the norm. Murray started 19 total games over the past two years…24 passing Tds to show for it. Terrible ratio and consistent with his poor passer rating. Coincidentally he signed his ridiculous contract prior to the ‘22 season.

We’re talking about the guy who had a no playing video games while watching film clause put in his contract and once said “I was blessed with the cognitive skills to just go out there and just see it before it happens. I’m not one of those guys that’s going to sit there and kill myself watching film. I don’t sit there for 24 hours and break down this team and that team and watch every game because, in my head, I see so much.”

Shorty doesn’t seem to see much over the middle and rarely ever checks to his third read. 

[weepaws 3,152]

5 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Yeah, but that seems like the outlier, not the norm. Murray started 19 total games over the past two years…24 passing Tds to show for it. Terrible ratio and consistent with his poor passer rating. Coincidentally he signed his ridiculous contract prior to the ‘22 season.

We’re talking about the guy who had a no playing video games while watching film clause put in his contract and once said “I was blessed with the cognitive skills to just go out there and just see it before it happens. I’m not one of those guys that’s going to sit there and kill myself watching film. I don’t sit there for 24 hours and break down this team and that team and watch every game because, in my head, I see so much.”

Shorty doesn’t seem to see much over the middle and rarely ever checks to his third read. 

 

Just saying.  Thanks 

[Super Cubs 153]

On 6/30/2024 at 11:31 AM, IGotWorms said:

That’s a rather bold statement on redraft. Odunze is behind two very good veteran receivers, they’ve also got a pretty good pass catching TE, and you’ve got the unknown of a rookie QB.

Do you think Harrison Jr sucks or that Murray will kill his value, or what?

just a gut feeling