The case against the top WRs

[IGotWorms 4,057]

You gotta nail these top picks because there’s usually a pretty decent drop off between the cream of the crop and that next tier. Last year if you had CeeDee or Tyreek that was a huge advantage, if you had Amon Ra that wasn’t quite as great but still a significant leg up.

So here are the top 10 this year by ADP (half PPR) and the case against each:

1. CeeDee Lamb: QB Dak Prescott may come back to earth a bit after career year. Both he and Prescott have contract issues at the moment.

2. Tyreek Hill: Turned 30. Jaylen Waddle resurgence on the horizon. 

3. Justin Jefferson: QB, QB, QB. Whether it’s McCarthy or Darnold, they may not be good, and they’re probably not going to be pass happy. Tough schedule too, with bad QB.

4. Jamarr Chase: Joe Burrow health concerns. Presence of Tee Higgins.

5. Amon-Ra St Brown: Run first team. Loaded offense with other dynamic playmakers in Gibbs and LaPorta. Those two were rookies last year and figure to be even more involved this year.

6. AJ Brown: Presence of Devonta Smith (who out produced Brown down the stretch last year). 

7. Puka Nacua: Not much of a track record. Would face more competition from Kupp if Kupp plays a full season. Stafford isn’t getting any younger.

8. Garrett Wilson: Rodgers coming back but he’s nearly 41, coming off major injury and hasn’t played in a full year.

9. Marvin Harrison Jr: Rookie. Could be a run heavy offense. Bit of a question mark with Kyler Murray

10. Devante Adams: 31. May be on downswing. QB play remains poor to atrocious 

[Maximum Overkill 1,739]

Amon Ra is the safest pick in the entire draft, WR or RB. He's consistently money every week. 

I think CeeDee will get the volume whether Dak sucks or not. Jamarr Chase will also get his. 

I agree on the others, wildcards at this point. 

[Ray_T 740]

3 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Amon Ra is the safest pick in the entire draft, WR or RB. He's consistently money every week. 

I think CeeDee will get the volume whether Dak sucks or not. Jamarr Chase will also get his. 

I agree on the others, wildcards at this point. 

I think AJ brown is pretty safe too.   Hes produced everywhere he goes.

biggest risk is injury to his QB or to himself.

Ditto for Tyreek.  higher upside but higher risk of injury to his QB who has had concussion issues.   I value them pretty close to the same but give the edge to Tyreek who has the higher upside (assuming good health)

 

[Maximum Overkill 1,739]

Just now, Ray_T said:

Ditto for Tyreek.  higher upside but higher risk of injury to his QB who has had concussion issues.   I value them pretty close to the same but give the edge to Tyreek who has the higher upside (assuming good health)

Agree. Tyreek can win you a League or lose you a League. It all depends on Tua's availability. That's too risky for me. Amon Ra is going to give you exactly what you need every week. 

[GobbleDog 981]

I'm not a big "tier guy" ... just like who I like. But I do consider Hill, Chase, Lamb and St. Brown to be the best-of-the-best picks of this draft. After that I'd be happy with Wilson, Brown Jefferson, and Nacua. It's the final two on that list that scare me... Adams and Harrison. I've flip flopped between Adams, London and Ayuik in mocks in the 2nd rd... not really loving any. Not sure where I'll end up on that ranking.

But Harrison - I'm not willing to be among the first in ff history to draft a rookie Wr top 10, particularly on a sub-par Cards team. Even when your early Wr fails to live up to expectation, it's rarely as disastrous as with Rbs. They usually still finish inside top 20+-. But the Harrison pick feels like he could badly disappoint. This is uncharted territory - no rookie Wr has ever been drafted this high. Might prove me wrong, but feels risky. I don't like to gamble with my early picks.

[weepaws 3,152]

I like Harrison in the 2nd rd.   Hill, St Brown, Lamb , would like to draft any of those three.  

[defectivesupport 8]

Marvin Harrison just feels like a media/nostalgia bait pick.  There is no data to show he will be dominant. The cardinals last year did not show they could support a top WR - especially alongside a TE.  Murray in his time back was only at 224.9 yards per game - and in those games(8) only once did a WR break 40 yards and that was brown with a 6-88 line. Harrison also only had a 57% catch rate last year.  Sure, brown leaving opens up targets, but with similar catch rate Harrison would finish around the same stats as brown did: 60-600.  It's not like the cardinal's division has gotten any easier.  The second round seems way too rich for my taste -  I think my comparison from last year would be Zay Flowers - 108 targets, 77 catches 858 yards.  And Flowers was on a good team.  I think I would start feeling comfortable with Harrison around the point where George Pickens, Zay Flowers, and D Hopkins are going... not anywhere near the second round.  I'm not willing to bet my 2nd on chasing an upside inflated/blinded by namesake - this isn't a JJ or chase situation he's coming into. 

[IGotWorms 4,057]

11 minutes ago, defectivesupport said:

Marvin Harrison just feels like a media/nostalgia bait pick.  There is no data to show he will be dominant. The cardinals last year did not show they could support a top WR - especially alongside a TE.  Murray in his time back was only at 224.9 yards per game - and in those games(8) only once did a WR break 40 yards and that was brown with a 6-88 line. Harrison also only had a 57% catch rate last year.  Sure, brown leaving opens up targets, but with similar catch rate Harrison would finish around the same stats as brown did: 60-600.  It's not like the cardinal's division has gotten any easier.  The second round seems way too rich for my taste -  I think my comparison from last year would be Zay Flowers - 108 targets, 77 catches 858 yards.  And Flowers was on a good team.  I think I would start feeling comfortable with Harrison around the point where George Pickens, Zay Flowers, and D Hopkins are going... not anywhere near the second round.  I'm not willing to bet my 2nd on chasing an upside inflated/blinded by namesake - this isn't a JJ or chase situation he's coming into. 

I am not as down on Harrison as you but I do think he is tremendously overvalued.

There is basically no upside whatsoever at where he’s being drafted. You have to assume that he’ll have one of the most successful rookie WR seasons ever, and then even if he does, you get no reward for it.

He’s a hard pass for me at where he’s going.

[defectivesupport 8]

1 minute ago, IGotWorms said:

I am not as down on Harrison as you but I do think he is tremendously overvalued.

There is basically no upside whatsoever at where he’s being drafted. You have to assume that he’ll have one of the most successful rookie WR seasons ever, and then even if he does, you get no reward for it.

He’s a hard pass for me at where he’s going.

Yea, that's more my point.  I don't think that he doesn't have upside at all, its just the current draft ADP is assuming he hits his ceiling. I'd rather draft guys in the second that I know will produce that still have a chance to break into the top 5.

[Maximum Overkill 1,739]

33 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

am not as down on Harrison as you but I do think he is tremendously overvalued.

I agree about the ADP being a little high but keep in mind that he's all they got. If Puka can put up insane numbers as a rookie then so can arguably the best WR to ever come out of the draft. 

Don't forget how good he is, he's going to demand targets, especially if they're playing catch-up every week. 

I don't love the ADP but I get it, he could break leagues if all goes well. 

[defectivesupport 8]

3 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I agree about the ADP being a little high but keep in mind that he's all they got. If Puka can put up insane numbers as a rookie then so can arguably the best WR to ever come out of the draft. 

Don't forget how good he is, he's going to demand targets, especially if they're playing catch-up every week. 

I don't love the ADP but I get it, he could break leagues if all goes well. 

He won't break leagues whatsoever though....you are paying for him to literally reproduce Murry's best year ever with Hopkins - 115 rec-1400 yards - anything less than that would be a loss at current ADP.  Puka played with one of the most well known QB's to feed their favorite target, and an offense that competes.  Harrison is playing with Murray who barely did better than hobbs passing wise in his 8 games last year.  "Don't forget how good he is" - is just a cop out.  We saw him put up good stats at OSU but we also saw him disappear in games, give up on plays, and lose to CB's that ended up getting drafted early.  Garbage time only can pad stats so much.  I am not saying never draft the guy - he will probably be top 25 WR.  But 2nd round is paying for career years from Murray and Harrison on a team that won 4 games last year - with Murray having yet to show that he is back to top 10 passing form everyone seems to fully expect out of him.  Remember, Murray was only avg 211 yards passing in 2022 before he got hurt and only 224 yards last year.

[GobbleDog 981]

I know this is a "Top Wr thread" and this guy isn't flashy or fun to talk about, but screw it:

Adp Wr 49) J Meyers 16 games, 71 rec, 807 yds, 8 Tds.... finished Wr 31 with 197.0 pts (ppr wk 1-17)

That was with really bad qb play from rookie O'Connell / Garoppolo, not to mention missing a game. Yes, Tds can be fluky. What if he hypothetically had no Tds last year? 149 pts or Wr 45.  He's Wr 49 going in double-digit rounds. You'd be hard pressed to find better Wr value in the 11th+ rounds. I expect much improved Qb play from 2nd year O'Connell and Minshew who flashed in several games last year.

Food for thought.

[jrokh 608]

2 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

so can arguably the best WR to ever come out of the draft. 

Where did you get this from? Calvin Johnson was a better prospect, so was Julio Jones. Harrison might not even be the best prospect in his draft class...

[kcBlitzkrieg 29]

18 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Agree. Tyreek can win you a League or lose you a League. It all depends on Tua's availability. That's too risky for me. Amon Ra is going to give you exactly what you need every week. 

Tua played all 17 games last year.  He has reportedly slimmed down 25 pounds for this season to be "more mobile".  This is contrary to the previous offseason when he "bulked up" to help avoid injuries.  We will have to wait and see. 

Also....There are worse backup QB's to be throwing Tyreek the ball than Mike White.   

[kcBlitzkrieg 29]

Puka averaged 8 ff points more per game playing Kupp's role in McVay's offense.  That is 15 ppg with Kupp vs. 23 ppg without....Good for that 12th to 15th slot in overall WRs ppg in ppr.  

Unless you know Kupp is going to miss time due to injury this year, Puka is overvalued at #7 overall WR.  

His floor is great, the highest WR2 out there.  No Kupp and he will put up top 3 wr numbers.  Someone going WR/WR to start could pair with someone like Wilson and should feel good.  

[Maximum Overkill 1,739]

57 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

Tua played all 17 games last year.  He has reportedly slimmed down 25 pounds for this season to be "more mobile".  This is contrary to the previous offseason when he "bulked up" to help avoid injuries.  We will have to wait and see. 

Also....There are worse backup QB's to be throwing Tyreek the ball than Mike White.   

I'm more worried about Tua's eggshell head than his weight. Tua is seriously one headshot away from Joe Biden territory. 

[Ray_T 740]

8 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I'm more worried about Tua's eggshell head than his weight. Tua is seriously one headshot away from Joe Biden territory. 

a legitimate concern.

There is significant risk here.   lots of people dont see it that way because Tua was healthy last year, but the effects of a concussion are cumulative.  that doesnt go away.   Not completely anyways.

and this is a risk many are not taking into account when taking Miami guys.   I just took Waddle in the July Mock.   his ADP in the source I checked was at #20 overall but I took him at #37.  at that point I felt the risk was more in line with the reward.    And given how many good drafters passed him over up to that point, I have to think many of them felt the same about his risks.

[TBayXXXVII 2,482]

21 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

You gotta nail these top picks because there’s usually a pretty decent drop off between the cream of the crop and that next tier. Last year if you had CeeDee or Tyreek that was a huge advantage, if you had Amon Ra that wasn’t quite as great but still a significant leg up.

So here are the top 10 this year by ADP (half PPR) and the case against each:

1. CeeDee Lamb: QB Dak Prescott may come back to earth a bit after career year. Both he and Prescott have contract issues at the moment.

2. Tyreek Hill: Turned 30. Jaylen Waddle resurgence on the horizon. 

3. Justin Jefferson: QB, QB, QB. Whether it’s McCarthy or Darnold, they may not be good, and they’re probably not going to be pass happy. Tough schedule too, with bad QB.

4. Jamarr Chase: Joe Burrow health concerns. Presence of Tee Higgins.

5. Amon-Ra St Brown: Run first team. Loaded offense with other dynamic playmakers in Gibbs and LaPorta. Those two were rookies last year and figure to be even more involved this year.

6. AJ Brown: Presence of Devonta Smith (who out produced Brown down the stretch last year). 

7. Puka Nacua: Not much of a track record. Would face more competition from Kupp if Kupp plays a full season. Stafford isn’t getting any younger.

8. Garrett Wilson: Rodgers coming back but he’s nearly 41, coming off major injury and hasn’t played in a full year.

9. Marvin Harrison Jr: Rookie. Could be a run heavy offense. Bit of a question mark with Kyler Murray

10. Devante Adams: 31. May be on downswing. QB play remains poor to atrocious 

I would lower my expectations for:

• Justin Jefferson: With their QB situation, I don't think their inclination would be to throw the ball enough to get Jefferson double digit targets per game, like the prior 2 seasons... plus, during his absence, Addison performed at a level to where he's going to command targets.  On top of that, they brought in Tonyan to be an option until (if), Hockenson gets back.  Not sure what Hock will bring, but assuming he comes back, it could be around fantasy playoff time.  I think he's a top 7 guy, but unlikely to be top 3... a shot at top 5.
• AJ Brown:  The Eagles OLine will still be top tier, but there's definitely going to be a drop off with Kelce retiring.  I believe the Eagles brought in Barkley with the main focus to give him the ball more often and have Hurts run and throw less.  They did bring in Kellen Moore to run the offense, so I do expect Brown to play the Cee Dee Lamb role on the team, but I believe the Eagles have more talented skill position players to spread the ball around.  I think he ends up between 8 and 12, by season's end.
• Puka Nacua:  Last year, when Kupp came back, Nacua was kinda boom or bust.  In the final 12 games, half were under 11 points... 5 were single digits.  I think things will probably smooth out, but I think he'll be more of a low-end 1/high end 2... somewhere in the 10-15 range.

 

I'd increase my expectations for:

• Amon-Ra St. Brown:  I think the Lions will just feed him the ball incessantly.  Assuming he stays healthy, he's got a legit shot at WR1.
• Garrett Wilson:  I like him, I don't love him, but I think he'll get a ton of volume.  I believe he gets into the top 7, a decent shot at top 5.
• Marvin Harrison Jr:  I think this kid is a stud.  I think he shows himself to be a force and could end up in the top 3.

 

Of the guys I noted that I think fall, I don't think they fall far.  I still think they'll be in WR1 range, but I'd know them down a few pegs.  Some guys not listed that I think could get into the top 10 are Drake London, Nico Collins, and Mike Evans. 

• Both London and Evans are going to be the go-to guy of their teams with limited offensive weapons to eat into their production.  I think Pitts and Robinson would be compliments to London, as I do Godwin and White... just like every team has.  After those guys, I don't think their respective teams will really have too many plays to spread the ball around.
• Nico Collins looks to be the best of that corp in Houston.  Sorry, but I think Diggs is not a high end WR anymore and nothing more than a complimentary play... a great one, but  still, complimentary.  I like Tank Dell and think he'll produce, but not quite well enough to be in WR1 consideration.

[Ray_T 740]

3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Marvin Harrison Jr:  I think this kid is a stud.  I think he shows himself to be a force and could end up in the top 3.

I think you are right.   I rarely endorse rookies, but I saw him on a crossing route, ball was thrown behind him.  looked like an INT and Harrison contorted his body, reached out his hand and pulled it in one handed and kept running.  didnt even need to slow down.   it was quite impressive.   for that reason I actually think he scores more TD than fftoday is currently projecting in their rankings.    anyone with a catch radius that wide is gonna be an awesome red zone target.

[weepaws 3,152]

A very good late rd pick up, D Mooney.   I think he could even register more ff points than London.  

 

[kcBlitzkrieg 29]

"I would lower my expectations for:

• Justin Jefferson: With their QB situation, I don't think their inclination would be to throw the ball enough to get Jefferson double digit targets per game, like the prior 2 seasons... plus, during his absence, Addison performed at a level to where he's going to command targets.  On top of that, they brought in Tonyan to be an option until (if), Hockenson gets back.  Not sure what Hock will bring, but assuming he comes back, it could be around fantasy playoff time.  I think he's a top 7 guy, but unlikely to be top 3... a shot at top 5."

 

10, 10, 10, 14.  

Jefferson's targets post injury comeback with Nick Mullens as QB.  

KOC is still the head coach.   This is still the Cooper Kupp X role in a Shannahan / McVay offense.  They move him all over the field.  They just paid him over $100 mill guaranteed.  

Why would "their inclination" be "not to throw him the ball 10 plus times a game" ??  

Robert Tonyan ??  Why is this name even mentioned in a breakdown of why or why not JJ will get 10 plus targets a game??  When was the last time, if ever, the name "Robert Tonyan" was relevant in a FF discussion....  

If he plays a healthy 15-17 games he will have 1500 yards receiving.  Pencil him in for 6-8 tuddies and he's the 4/5th overall WR.  

[GobbleDog 981]

9 hours ago, weepaws said:

A very good late rd pick up, D Mooney.   I think he could even register more ff points than London. 

Did a little Mooney research. Here's what I found:

Supposed was personally recruited by Cousins who knew him from playing the Bears twice a year, so that's a good sign. Cousins signed March 11 and Mooney the next day... 3-yr $39 mil with $26 mil guaranteed. Rather high supposedly due to a shallow pool of free agent Wrs, but also shows Atlanta's belief and commitment. With the addition of DJ Moore, Mooney played more slot last year which wasn't his bag as he's been more of a mid/deep threat. He won't play slot in Atlanta, as Falcons signed Rondale Moore for that. Mooney had his best year in '21 as a softmore with rookie Fields and Andy Dalton - not surprisingly his best games were nearly always with Dalton who only started 7 games. In '22 Mooney didn't do much - missed 5 games (grd 3 ankle tear) and Fields was hot garbage. in '23 DJ signed and got most targets, followed by Kmet, with just a sad 61 targets to Mooney who also missed 2 games (concussion). Fields was lackluster as well. 

So one can excuse Mooney's stats to some extent. He's now in Atlanta as the #2 banana...  clearly not the alpha with London commanding the bulk, Bijan will get his, so will Pitts, and some scraps to Rondale Moore. Looking at how Cousins spread the ball in Minnesota and given the target competition in Atlanta, I think the best one can expect from Mooney is about 4 receptions per game. That's 68 receptions and roughly 950 yds.... let's take a wild (optimistic) guess and say 6 Tds. That's 199 points, good for 34th last year.  FFMike's projection isn't quite as optimistic... (52 rec, 732 yds, 3 Tds) or 143 pts, good for 50th last year. Either way, decent value for adp Wr 73.

As for "he could even register more ff points than London".... pass the bong.

[TBayXXXVII 2,482]

21 hours ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

"I would lower my expectations for:

• Justin Jefferson: With their QB situation, I don't think their inclination would be to throw the ball enough to get Jefferson double digit targets per game, like the prior 2 seasons... plus, during his absence, Addison performed at a level to where he's going to command targets.  On top of that, they brought in Tonyan to be an option until (if), Hockenson gets back.  Not sure what Hock will bring, but assuming he comes back, it could be around fantasy playoff time.  I think he's a top 7 guy, but unlikely to be top 3... a shot at top 5."

 

10, 10, 10, 14.  

Jefferson's targets post injury comeback with Nick Mullens as QB.  

KOC is still the head coach.   This is still the Cooper Kupp X role in a Shannahan / McVay offense.  They move him all over the field.  They just paid him over $100 mill guaranteed.  

Why would "their inclination" be "not to throw him the ball 10 plus times a game" ??  

Robert Tonyan ??  Why is this name even mentioned in a breakdown of why or why not JJ will get 10 plus targets a game??  When was the last time, if ever, the name "Robert Tonyan" was relevant in a FF discussion....  

If he plays a healthy 15-17 games he will have 1500 yards receiving.  Pencil him in for 6-8 tuddies and he's the 4/5th overall WR.  

LOL, you come across as someone like my cousin.  One night, a few of us were talking about basketball and my cousin said that LeBron James was the best player of all-time.  I said, "I don't know, I'd think I'd put Jordan, Russell, & Wilt ahead of him."  His response... "Oh, yeah, so LeBron sucks?".  LOL, I basically said he was the 4th best player of all time and he's claiming I think he sucks.

 

OP's list has him #3... I think he falls up #6 or #7.  That "drop" might literally be 1 target less per game. Hahaha... heaven forbid I think he gets around 9 targets per game!