Way Too Early DND’s

[JagFan 157]

The draft, free agency, and hold-outs will dramatically change the landscape for a lot of skill players.  Who do you have right now as a DND?

Mine is Jayden Daniels.  Love this kid, and drafted him everywhere I could last year.  But I could see a sophomore regression that won’t payoff his ADP.

[Maximum Overkill 1,891]

49 minutes ago, JagFan said:

The draft, free agency, and hold-outs will dramatically change the landscape for a lot of skill players.  Who do you have right now as a DND?

Mine is Jayden Daniels.  Love this kid, and drafted him everywhere I could last year.  But I could see a sophomore regression that won’t payoff his ADP.

There's also great opportunity with second year players, especially WRs. I'm loading up on Rome Odunze this year, I even traded twice for him in Dynasty. He's going to be a monster in Ben Johnson's system. Caleb Williams falls into that as well. 

But yes, I do believe Jayden Daniels will regress. I really worry about his health. He needs to stop playing hero ball and taking so many chances. It's going to eventually catch up with him. And having Debo there is a QBs worst enemy. He's a cancer. 

I'm not touching McCaffrey, at any ADP. I'm out on Justin Herbert, Tyreek, DK Metcalf (or any Steeler), any Brown who's not a RB, any Saint who's not a RB. 

Watch out for the Jaguars, that can be an explosive offense, especially if they get Jeanty or Warren. 

 

[weepaws 3,165]

After the draft it will be more clear.  

[JagFan 157]

5 hours ago, weepaws said:

After the draft it will be more clear.  

Come on Paws, you always have a good opinion…the title is “way too early”.

[gcmmidwest 149]

Jayden Daniels is the real deal and if you think he's regressing ur nuts dude didn't win rookie of the year by accident he plants the ball picture perfect .... Monster/Killer in the making 

[JagFan 157]

Ok y’all, we are post draft…who you got?  Obviously ADP is the criteria for DND.  Anyone got thoughts now?  N Harris is interesting to me.  Harbaugh will pound the ball, there will be a RB to have here…just as an example of a situation that will be discussed through the summer.  Is he a DND in the to 20 RBs now.  He likely would’ve been drafted in the top 10-15 RBs before the draft, if not higher.

[polecatt 478]

On 4/17/2025 at 7:09 AM, Maximum Overkill said:

I'm not touching McCaffrey,

 

I completely agree. He was the first person to come to mind here...

I'm a little bit skeptical of anyone on the 49ers this season

[LaChup 233]

I'm not touching Tyreek, but I will bet dimes to donuts he will touch his girlfriend before the season is over.

[Maximum Overkill 1,891]

6 hours ago, LaChup said:

I'm not touching Tyreek, but I will bet dimes to donuts he will touch his girlfriend before the season is over.

Facts 

[Mufaletta 75]

On 5/1/2025 at 10:02 PM, LaChup said:

I'm not touching Tyreek, but I will bet dimes to donuts he will touch his girlfriend before the season is over.

https://x.com/NFL_DovKleiman/status/1706725874341421215?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1706725874341421215|twgr^652fe2dad1dc712d7420cd024dce4721fc786167|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.menshealth.com%2Fentertainment%2Fa45334170%2Ftyreek-hill-porn-star-nfl-retirement%2F

[JagFan 157]

This will be much easier once ADPs come out and there are players clearly ranked too high like Breece Hall last year with a top 3 ADP.  That was a clear example of “hope isn’t a strategy”.

[weepaws 3,165]

Qbs and TEs single digit rounds, I’ll pass.   Thanks. 

[Super Cubs 154]

Anchane, CMC, Aaron Jones, Travis Etienne - DND unless they fall

[weepaws 3,165]

Etienne is being drafted in the tenth rd, a rb 4, how much farther would he need to fall? 

[JagFan 157]

3 hours ago, weepaws said:

Etienne is being drafted in the tenth rd, a rb 4, how much farther would he need to fall? 

That’s a crowded RB room.  I’m not sure I’d want anything to do with it.

[weepaws 3,165]

6 hours ago, JagFan said:

That’s a crowded RB room.  I’m not sure I’d want anything to do with it.

I would agree, it’s way to busy, I’m passing, so I was wondering the value the other poster might have in mind.  But I’m not interested,  And at his current adp, I should be done drafting Rbs by then.  

[GobbleDog 990]

7 hours ago, JagFan said:

That’s a crowded RB room.  I’m not sure I’d want anything to do with it.

After some research... I'm warming up to Tank Bigsby.

Youtube "Tank Bigsby 2024" and just pick a few random weeks.... gritty runner. Head first gaining tough yards. Also apparent how bad the Jags run-block was, rarely creating holes - Tank's horrible 1.8 yds-before-contact / attempt is a testament. Made the most of what was given - impressive he finished with 4.6 ypc. The few times he did get a hole, he popped through and shook tackles. Interestingly, Tank tied Derrick Henry with the best yds-AFTER-contact / attempt at 2.8. Playerprofiler ranked his juke rate at #6 in the league. His broken tackle / attempt tied for 12th best in the league. Solid runner.

Only had 16 targets, catching 12... two drops (16.7%). His scouting report out of college even mentioned his 11.6% drop rate. Be nice if he could fix that part of his game, but currently doesn't seem like he'll get too many targets - probably more than last year, but not much.

The former 2nd rounder out of Auburn (good stock) was solid and likely continues improving into his 3rd season. Jags invested some in that o-line so they should have better run-blocking (who knows). Many are hoping Tuten with his size and speed has a huge impact, but he's a rookie - don't know yet if he can match Tank's skill.

As for Etienne... 3.7 ypc. Unsurprisingly 1.9 yds-before-contact (again o-line), but after contact... 1.8 (oof).  Bet Jags regret picking up that 5th yr option now.  He'll get a few receptions, but I wouldn't expect much else. 

Tank's adp ... Rb 40.  Won't take much to meet that adp. Based on where things stand now, I'd ballpark him to finish around Rb 25. Though we'll see where things stand in pre-season. Have a feeling his adp is gonna shoot up once it's apparent he's the lead dog. 

[weepaws 3,165]

If I was going to target any rb from that group, it would rookie Tuten.  

[JagFan 157]

58 minutes ago, weepaws said:

If I was going to target any rb from that group, it would rookie Tuten.  

I think it’s going to be a 3 headed monster barring an injury, and a whole lot of passing out of that offense.

[LaChup 233]

I'm rootin' for Tuten.

[GobbleDog 990]

I didn't know what to make of the Jags backfield and was sorta leaning toward Tuten like everyone else ... just being the huge fast rookie (everyone loves a hyped rookie). But after I took an unbiased look at the film and metrics, I realized how good Tank actually was. The ypc, yac, broken tackle rate, and homerun ability. Last year, he lived up to the 2nd rd draft equity the Jags invested. 

Etienne is still there (man he stunk), and now they have the rookie - but Tank is the best Rb on the roster and I think he'll prove it in training camp. Rb 40.!. Feel like I've found hidden gold that nobody sees because Etienne and the rookie are clouding up the situation. Watch some film - look at the stats/metrics... ya might come to the same conclusion. 

[weepaws 3,165]

I don’t think you will find a true rb one on the Jags, it will be a RBBC, and even worse, the hot hand effect. 

All of them have a very good adp, but I’ll pass.  

But by the time I draft in late August one of those Rbs might emerge as the their big dog.