Mid & late Rb ideas

[JagFan 157]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

Don't know if adding Chubb means the Texans are concerned about Mixon, their backups, or both. Chubb will get some goal lines, but his metrics last year .... oof. Surprised he even got signed. 

Mixon slumped badly down the stretch.  Ypc, yac, broken tackles all declined. Lot of millage on him.  

Yea, at first glance you have two power back studs on the decline…and they don’t decline gracefully.  If you don’t believe me just ask FruitLoops.  Nothing to see here…move on from this situation come draft day.  I hear the Giants have a young stud that is about to set the FF world on fire that I’ll be overdrafting a bit early to avoid situations like this.

[GobbleDog 991]

25 minutes ago, JagFan said:

Nothing to see here…move on from this situation come draft day. 

Might be the wise move. I already thought Mixon's adp was inflated just based on the age, mileage, and declining metrics down the stretch. Now ya have to worry about Chubb vulturing Tds too.  Many are gonna over-draft Mixon just based on last year's total stats and pure name recognition.  Won't be me.

[weepaws 3,167]

Before  today I liked Mixon adp, mid rb2.  

But if Chubb starts to show any positive sign , Mixon adp will go down, but by the time my two leagues draft which is late August, is adp might be even more valuable.   

[Ray_T 752]

11 hours ago, weepaws said:

Before  today I liked Mixon adp, mid rb2.  

But if Chubb starts to show any positive sign , Mixon adp will go down, but by the time my two leagues draft which is late August, is adp might be even more valuable.   

I dont know.... with multiple ACL surgeries for Chubb, and 29 years old.    I'm not sure hes gonna start.   they only signed him for like 2.2 or 2.3 mil I think.   thats not starter money.   My guess is hes gonna be the short yardage back and mixon will be the every down guy.

 

I suppose there is always the chance Chubb blows the doors off but I'd honestly bet against that.   it hasnt even been 12 months since the surgery.   I'd put my money on Mixon to have a similar year to last year minus a couple  TD which Chubb will vulture.

[GobbleDog 991]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

I dont know.... with multiple ACL surgeries for Chubb, and 29 years old.   

Chubb is cooked. Among Rbs with 100+ carries...

Dead last in yds-after-contact;  2nd worst in ypc; 3rd worst in missed tackles/attempt;  4th worst in explosive run rate ... among many other ugly metrics. 

[weepaws 3,167]

15 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Might be the wise move. I already thought Mixon's adp was inflated just based on the age, mileage, and declining metrics down the stretch. Now ya have to worry about Chubb vulturing Tds too.  Many are gonna over-draft Mixon just based on last year's total stats and pure name recognition.  Won't be me.

His last four regular season games where awful, but , he did have two good playoff games.  

[weepaws 3,167]

2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I dont know.... with multiple ACL surgeries for Chubb, and 29 years old.    I'm not sure hes gonna start.   they only signed him for like 2.2 or 2.3 mil I think.   thats not starter money.   My guess is hes gonna be the short yardage back and mixon will be the every down guy.

 

I suppose there is always the chance Chubb blows the doors off but I'd honestly bet against that.   it hasnt even been 12 months since the surgery.   I'd put my money on Mixon to have a similar year to last year minus a couple  TD which Chubb will vulture.

Chubb every down rb, I wouldn’t count on that.   But a short yardage rushing thief I can see.  

Mixon just barley reached 1000 rush yards season, despite getting all the work, His 11 rushing tds is what vaulted him into #9 in non ppr of course.  

If Chubb is healthy enough to take some of those away, Mixon would need to fall into the mid rb three range for me.   

I don’t expect any kind of lead work load for Chubb, but he won’t need that type of load to be a torn to Mixon owners.  Imo. 

[nobody 2,646]

On 5/14/2025 at 8:06 AM, Ray_T said:

yeah, the speed makes him an interesting prospect.  but there are plenty of speedsters that dont seem to be able to cut it in the NFL.   NFL loves the speed because of the home run ability.   but the speed only matters once you get into the open field and it becomes a footrace.     but if he figures out how to read the play, read his blocks and break into the open field, THEN he becomes VERY dangerous.

Great thread here.

For runningbacks, speed should be treated as pass/fail.  You're either fast enough to hit an edge if you have to or you're not.  That equates to like 4.57 or something in that range.  Any more speed is icing on the cake.  That's why guys like Emmett Smith and not the fastest guy are always the best runningbacks.

Teams fall in love with speed at runningback, but acceleration/deceleration, vision, change of direction, contact balance, and pressing the hole are more important once a runningback meets the minimum speed requirement.  

I'll elaborate on pressing the hole.  It's essentially what gobbledog praised from kaleb.  Great runningbacks have a way of making linebackers commit to one running lane and then they can cut to another hole getting the defender caught up in traffic. Frank Gore was a master at this.

[nobody 2,646]

Oh and I like Corey Kiner undrafted free agent runningback for the 49ers out of Cincinnati via LSU transfer.

He has elite contact balance.  I mean elite.  I've never seen anyone like this guy when it comes to contact balance.  He can catch.  Great zone scheme runner.  He fell in the draft because his athletic scores were trash, but I don't know what to tell you.  I watch him play and he looks quick and fast enough to me.  

Of course you don't even need to draft him.  You can get him for free, but I have a feeling he's going to be a preseason star so keep the name in mind if mccaffery doesn't look right heading into the season.

[Ray_T 752]

3 hours ago, nobody said:

Teams fall in love with speed at runningback, but acceleration/deceleration, vision, change of direction, contact balance, and pressing the hole are more important once a runningback meets the minimum speed requirement.  

100%.    acceleration, start stop and change of direction are far better indicators for a RB.    Cone drill helps there.   pure speed by itself is nothing without those other abilities.

as well as the ability to read the blocks.   I've seen RB with slightly subpar speed perform decently because they are so good at reading the blocks that they see the hole is about to open up and they head that direction before the hole opens up and they are through the moment that hole opens up.

elusiveness and/or ability to break a tackle are huge too.   I dont care how a RB gets through the line.  by being elusive so its hard to get to them or if they power through the tackle.   the important thing is that they can get through the line and gain their 4-6 yards.  after that everything they earn is gravy.

 

[listen2me 23 1,846]

Lets remember Cook is disgruntled and in a mini holdout.  He actually showed up today and stood around.  He will play and be good.  16 rush TDs was a bit of an outlier tho.  But they do score a bunch so perhaps he can do something close in that department again.  

They drafted Ray Davis last year and like him.  Not sure if they will give him more run this year or not.  Cook gets the bulk but they do use 3 backs.  He often comes out on 3rd downs.  

Will be interesting if he takes a lower deal than he wants or ends up playing his deal out.   If he doesnt get a contract look out for the phantom injury to look out for himself heading into FA.  

[weepaws 3,167]

Now Dobbins signs with the Broncos , I thought Harvey was a great bargain.  

[GobbleDog 991]

42 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

They drafted Ray Davis last year and like him.  Not sure if they will give him more run this year or not. 

They can't even afford Cook unless they make some drastic roster moves... currently $1.7 mil cap space.

Sadly...  Curtis Samuel is the 8th highest paid player on the team with a cap hit of $9.1 mil.  Dude had 31 rec last year. I'd forgotten they even signed him. 

[GobbleDog 991]

3 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Now Dobbins signs with the Broncos , I thought Harvey was a great bargain.  

Not sure how I feel about that quite yet.  I'm still in the grieving process.   

[Super Cubs 154]

Chubb is toast. He was a great player, but his best days are behind him.  As a Texans fan I don't mind the them taking a chance with him. He's a lottery ticket. He might payoff, but as a Mixon owner I aint scared. I view him more as a threat to Dameon Pierce.  

[listen2me 23 1,846]

19 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

They can't even afford Cook unless they make some drastic roster moves... currently $1.7 mil cap space.

Sadly...  Curtis Samuel is the 8th highest paid player on the team with a cap hit of $9.1 mil.  Dude had 31 rec last year. I'd forgotten they even signed him. 

They can afford him.  It would obviously just be alloted different ways/different years.  They just dont want to pay him what he was demanding.  They could work something out at a lower number than 15 mill a year he wanted.  

[Ray_T 752]

15 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

They drafted Ray Davis last year and like him.  Not sure if they will give him more run this year or not.  Cook gets the bulk but they do use 3 backs.  He often comes out on 3rd downs. 

I really liked Ray davis when I saw him play.  I'd like to see what this kid could do with more playing time

[weepaws 3,167]

K Walker of the Hawks is quickly becoming a pass for me, he’s already injured.  

[nobody 2,646]

I like Ray Davis too.  I think he would be good with more volume.