Mid & late Rb ideas

[JagFan 164]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

Don't know if adding Chubb means the Texans are concerned about Mixon, their backups, or both. Chubb will get some goal lines, but his metrics last year .... oof. Surprised he even got signed. 

Mixon slumped badly down the stretch.  Ypc, yac, broken tackles all declined. Lot of millage on him.  

Yea, at first glance you have two power back studs on the decline…and they don’t decline gracefully.  If you don’t believe me just ask FruitLoops.  Nothing to see here…move on from this situation come draft day.  I hear the Giants have a young stud that is about to set the FF world on fire that I’ll be overdrafting a bit early to avoid situations like this.

[GobbleDog 996]

25 minutes ago, JagFan said:

Nothing to see here…move on from this situation come draft day. 

Might be the wise move. I already thought Mixon's adp was inflated just based on the age, mileage, and declining metrics down the stretch. Now ya have to worry about Chubb vulturing Tds too.  Many are gonna over-draft Mixon just based on last year's total stats and pure name recognition.  Won't be me.

[weepaws 3,191]

Before  today I liked Mixon adp, mid rb2.  

But if Chubb starts to show any positive sign , Mixon adp will go down, but by the time my two leagues draft which is late August, is adp might be even more valuable.   

[Ray_T 753]

11 hours ago, weepaws said:

Before  today I liked Mixon adp, mid rb2.  

But if Chubb starts to show any positive sign , Mixon adp will go down, but by the time my two leagues draft which is late August, is adp might be even more valuable.   

I dont know.... with multiple ACL surgeries for Chubb, and 29 years old.    I'm not sure hes gonna start.   they only signed him for like 2.2 or 2.3 mil I think.   thats not starter money.   My guess is hes gonna be the short yardage back and mixon will be the every down guy.

 

I suppose there is always the chance Chubb blows the doors off but I'd honestly bet against that.   it hasnt even been 12 months since the surgery.   I'd put my money on Mixon to have a similar year to last year minus a couple  TD which Chubb will vulture.

[GobbleDog 996]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

I dont know.... with multiple ACL surgeries for Chubb, and 29 years old.   

Chubb is cooked. Among Rbs with 100+ carries...

Dead last in yds-after-contact;  2nd worst in ypc; 3rd worst in missed tackles/attempt;  4th worst in explosive run rate ... among many other ugly metrics. 

[weepaws 3,191]

15 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Might be the wise move. I already thought Mixon's adp was inflated just based on the age, mileage, and declining metrics down the stretch. Now ya have to worry about Chubb vulturing Tds too.  Many are gonna over-draft Mixon just based on last year's total stats and pure name recognition.  Won't be me.

His last four regular season games where awful, but , he did have two good playoff games.  

[weepaws 3,191]

2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I dont know.... with multiple ACL surgeries for Chubb, and 29 years old.    I'm not sure hes gonna start.   they only signed him for like 2.2 or 2.3 mil I think.   thats not starter money.   My guess is hes gonna be the short yardage back and mixon will be the every down guy.

 

I suppose there is always the chance Chubb blows the doors off but I'd honestly bet against that.   it hasnt even been 12 months since the surgery.   I'd put my money on Mixon to have a similar year to last year minus a couple  TD which Chubb will vulture.

Chubb every down rb, I wouldn’t count on that.   But a short yardage rushing thief I can see.  

Mixon just barley reached 1000 rush yards season, despite getting all the work, His 11 rushing tds is what vaulted him into #9 in non ppr of course.  

If Chubb is healthy enough to take some of those away, Mixon would need to fall into the mid rb three range for me.   

I don’t expect any kind of lead work load for Chubb, but he won’t need that type of load to be a torn to Mixon owners.  Imo. 

[nobody 2,672]

On 5/14/2025 at 8:06 AM, Ray_T said:

yeah, the speed makes him an interesting prospect.  but there are plenty of speedsters that dont seem to be able to cut it in the NFL.   NFL loves the speed because of the home run ability.   but the speed only matters once you get into the open field and it becomes a footrace.     but if he figures out how to read the play, read his blocks and break into the open field, THEN he becomes VERY dangerous.

Great thread here.

For runningbacks, speed should be treated as pass/fail.  You're either fast enough to hit an edge if you have to or you're not.  That equates to like 4.57 or something in that range.  Any more speed is icing on the cake.  That's why guys like Emmett Smith and not the fastest guy are always the best runningbacks.

Teams fall in love with speed at runningback, but acceleration/deceleration, vision, change of direction, contact balance, and pressing the hole are more important once a runningback meets the minimum speed requirement.  

I'll elaborate on pressing the hole.  It's essentially what gobbledog praised from kaleb.  Great runningbacks have a way of making linebackers commit to one running lane and then they can cut to another hole getting the defender caught up in traffic. Frank Gore was a master at this.

[nobody 2,672]

Oh and I like Corey Kiner undrafted free agent runningback for the 49ers out of Cincinnati via LSU transfer.

He has elite contact balance.  I mean elite.  I've never seen anyone like this guy when it comes to contact balance.  He can catch.  Great zone scheme runner.  He fell in the draft because his athletic scores were trash, but I don't know what to tell you.  I watch him play and he looks quick and fast enough to me.  

Of course you don't even need to draft him.  You can get him for free, but I have a feeling he's going to be a preseason star so keep the name in mind if mccaffery doesn't look right heading into the season.

[Ray_T 753]

3 hours ago, nobody said:

Teams fall in love with speed at runningback, but acceleration/deceleration, vision, change of direction, contact balance, and pressing the hole are more important once a runningback meets the minimum speed requirement.  

100%.    acceleration, start stop and change of direction are far better indicators for a RB.    Cone drill helps there.   pure speed by itself is nothing without those other abilities.

as well as the ability to read the blocks.   I've seen RB with slightly subpar speed perform decently because they are so good at reading the blocks that they see the hole is about to open up and they head that direction before the hole opens up and they are through the moment that hole opens up.

elusiveness and/or ability to break a tackle are huge too.   I dont care how a RB gets through the line.  by being elusive so its hard to get to them or if they power through the tackle.   the important thing is that they can get through the line and gain their 4-6 yards.  after that everything they earn is gravy.

 

[listen2me 23 1,873]

Lets remember Cook is disgruntled and in a mini holdout.  He actually showed up today and stood around.  He will play and be good.  16 rush TDs was a bit of an outlier tho.  But they do score a bunch so perhaps he can do something close in that department again.  

They drafted Ray Davis last year and like him.  Not sure if they will give him more run this year or not.  Cook gets the bulk but they do use 3 backs.  He often comes out on 3rd downs.  

Will be interesting if he takes a lower deal than he wants or ends up playing his deal out.   If he doesnt get a contract look out for the phantom injury to look out for himself heading into FA.  

[weepaws 3,191]

Now Dobbins signs with the Broncos , I thought Harvey was a great bargain.  

[GobbleDog 996]

42 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

They drafted Ray Davis last year and like him.  Not sure if they will give him more run this year or not. 

They can't even afford Cook unless they make some drastic roster moves... currently $1.7 mil cap space.

Sadly...  Curtis Samuel is the 8th highest paid player on the team with a cap hit of $9.1 mil.  Dude had 31 rec last year. I'd forgotten they even signed him. 

[GobbleDog 996]

3 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Now Dobbins signs with the Broncos , I thought Harvey was a great bargain.  

Not sure how I feel about that quite yet.  I'm still in the grieving process.   

[Super Cubs 154]

Chubb is toast. He was a great player, but his best days are behind him.  As a Texans fan I don't mind the them taking a chance with him. He's a lottery ticket. He might payoff, but as a Mixon owner I aint scared. I view him more as a threat to Dameon Pierce.  

[listen2me 23 1,873]

19 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

They can't even afford Cook unless they make some drastic roster moves... currently $1.7 mil cap space.

Sadly...  Curtis Samuel is the 8th highest paid player on the team with a cap hit of $9.1 mil.  Dude had 31 rec last year. I'd forgotten they even signed him. 

They can afford him.  It would obviously just be alloted different ways/different years.  They just dont want to pay him what he was demanding.  They could work something out at a lower number than 15 mill a year he wanted.  

[Ray_T 753]

15 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

They drafted Ray Davis last year and like him.  Not sure if they will give him more run this year or not.  Cook gets the bulk but they do use 3 backs.  He often comes out on 3rd downs. 

I really liked Ray davis when I saw him play.  I'd like to see what this kid could do with more playing time

[weepaws 3,191]

K Walker of the Hawks is quickly becoming a pass for me, he’s already injured.  

[nobody 2,672]

I like Ray Davis too.  I think he would be good with more volume.

[GobbleDog 996]

Beat writer Mike Fisher on Cowboys OTA's last month... "Miles Sanders did it again today. He's got burst, all the things that I said about him when he was with the Eagles, you're watching Miles Sanders, and you're on the edge of your seat holding your breath every time he touches the ball. He does that at practice. He did it last week, and he did it again today.” 

Cowboys training camp starts in a couple weeks and that'll give a better indication of the situation with pads on. Both Sanders and Williams took first team snaps at OTA's, but considering how atrocious Williams metrics were the last two years, I starting to wonder if Sanders might shock the world and make somewhat of a comeback. 

Something to monitor over the next couple months. 

[weepaws 3,191]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

Beat writer Mike Fisher on Cowboys OTA's last month... "Miles Sanders did it again today. He's got burst, all the things that I said about him when he was with the Eagles, you're watching Miles Sanders, and you're on the edge of your seat holding your breath every time he touches the ball. He does that at practice. He did it last week, and he did it again today.” 

Cowboys training camp starts in a couple weeks and that'll give a better indication of the situation with pads on. Both Sanders and Williams took first team snaps at OTA's, but considering how atrocious Williams metrics were the last two years, I starting to wonder if Sanders might shock the world and make somewhat of a comeback. 

Something to monitor over the next couple months. 

Very much so, both of them have Great late rd value right now.  But this news destroys any of their value  

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

Beat writer Mike Fisher on Cowboys OTA's last month... "Miles Sanders did it again today. He's got burst, all the things that I said about him when he was with the Eagles, you're watching Miles Sanders, and you're on the edge of your seat holding your breath every time he touches the ball. He does that at practice. He did it last week, and he did it again today.” 

Cowboys training camp starts in a couple weeks and that'll give a better indication of the situation with pads on. Both Sanders and Williams took first team snaps at OTA's, but considering how atrocious Williams metrics were the last two years, I starting to wonder if Sanders might shock the world and make somewhat of a comeback. 

Something to monitor over the next couple months. 

He wasn't even all that good in Philly.  In his best fantasy season, he only played 12 games and he was RB20 at 14 fpg.  His best full season was 2022 when he played all 17 games and finished as RB22 (in terms of fpg at 12.7), total points-wise, he was RB15.

He's most likely a mid-to-low tier RB3, at best.

[GobbleDog 996]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

He wasn't even all that good in Philly.  In his best fantasy season, he only played 12 games and he was RB20 at 14 fpg.  His best full season was 2022 when he played all 17 games and finished as RB22 (in terms of fpg at 12.7), total points-wise, he was RB15.

He's most likely a mid-to-low tier RB3, at best.

Yeah, when I first saw Sanders on the Dallas depth chart I wasn't excited - surprised they even signed him. But we know what Williams did the past couple years (talk about sad metrics), so maybe Sanders still has enough juice to win the starting job and produce. 

Cowboys new coach Shottenheimer said right after become head coach "I'm proud to say at two different times in my career as a coordinator, we led the league in rushing. The running game and the action pass game go hand in hand."  Last season they ranked 27th in run/pass ratio, so it sounds like the Cowboys want to do a lot more rushing.

Be nice to have whoever owns that job - especially at a dirt cheap price.  Be it Sanders or whoever. It's a situation to monitor, but encouraging to hear beat reporters talking up Sanders at OTA's. We'll see what they say once the pads are on in training camp.

[GobbleDog 996]

I started this thread back in early May and Breece Hall looked decent at his adp then... fast-forward to mid-July and think I'm out.

Talented player and had respectable (not great - not bad) metrics last year. Probably gets a ton of receptions again so even if he stinks, he shouldn't be that bad.  But ... Justin Fields.  I foresee a lot of stacked 8 man-fronts eyeing Hall every play. Last year with Rodgers, Hall only faced stacked fronts 6.2% of the time (extremely low).  Fields only played 10 games in Pitt, but Najee finished with 13.7% stacked fronts.  Go back to '23 when Fields was in Chicago... Khalil Herbert faced 31.1%. 

Defenses don't respect Fields and neither do I. Some wonder if the Jets are in tank for Manning mode.  Vegas has their o/u wins at ... 5.5.  Gonna be a long year for the J-E-T-S and I'm not going down with that ship. Think I'll look elsewhere at that adp. 

[weepaws 3,191]

B Allen is another problem for Hall owners. 

[JagFan 164]

14 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

I started this thread back in early May and Breece Hall looked decent at his adp then... fast-forward to mid-July and think I'm out.

Talented player and had respectable (not great - not bad) metrics last year. Probably gets a ton of receptions again so even if he stinks, he shouldn't be that bad.  But ... Justin Fields.  I foresee a lot of stacked 8 man-fronts eyeing Hall every play. Last year with Rodgers, Hall only faced stacked fronts 6.2% of the time (extremely low).  Fields only played 10 games in Pitt, but Najee finished with 13.7% stacked fronts.  Go back to '23 when Fields was in Chicago... Khalil Herbert faced 31.1%. 

Defenses don't respect Fields and neither do I. Some wonder if the Jets are in tank for Manning mode.  Vegas has their o/u wins at ... 5.5.  Gonna be a long year for the J-E-T-S and I'm not going down with that ship. Think I'll look elsewhere at that adp. 

And you know the Jets are gonna Jets 

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

23 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

I started this thread back in early May and Breece Hall looked decent at his adp then... fast-forward to mid-July and think I'm out.

Talented player and had respectable (not great - not bad) metrics last year. Probably gets a ton of receptions again so even if he stinks, he shouldn't be that bad.  But ... Justin Fields.  I foresee a lot of stacked 8 man-fronts eyeing Hall every play. Last year with Rodgers, Hall only faced stacked fronts 6.2% of the time (extremely low).  Fields only played 10 games in Pitt, but Najee finished with 13.7% stacked fronts.  Go back to '23 when Fields was in Chicago... Khalil Herbert faced 31.1%. 

Defenses don't respect Fields and neither do I. Some wonder if the Jets are in tank for Manning mode.  Vegas has their o/u wins at ... 5.5.  Gonna be a long year for the J-E-T-S and I'm not going down with that ship. Think I'll look elsewhere at that adp. 

Khalil Herbert also rushed for 4.9 yards per attempts.  In the 3 years with Fields in Chicago, Herbert had 364 carries for 1775 yards.  Last year, Saquon had 345 carries for 2005 yards.  I point that out not to say that Herbert in similar to Barkely.  It's to say that maybe it's more of a RB & usage issue than a QB issue.  Jalen Hurts only threw the ball 361 times last year.  Is not really all that good of a passing QB.  Do you really think teams were trying to stop the pass last year?  In contrast, David Montgomery in his 2 years sharing the backfield with Herbert and Fields as his QB, averaged 3.9 yards per carry, but in Detroit, he's averaging 4.4.

Just a side note, Fields played in 10 games, but he really only played in the first 6.  In the other 4 games, he took 13 snaps.  Of the 10, he ran 7 times and threw once.  I don't think Najee was really affected that much in those other 6 snaps.  We don't even know if he was on the field.  Odds are, I'd expect Harris to have seen more stacked fronts vs Fields than Harris.

[GobbleDog 996]

4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Khalil Herbert also rushed for 4.9 yards per attempts.  In the 3 years with Fields in Chicago, Herbert had 364 carries for 1775 yards. 

It's to say that maybe it's more of a RB & usage issue than a QB issue. 

Herbert got all that usage and racked up all those yards - never better than Rb 41 ppg ('23). 

Everyone suffers from bad Qb play.  That's a Qb issue. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

12 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Herbert got all that usage and racked up all those yards - never better than Rb 41 ppg ('23). 

Everyone suffers from bad Qb play.  That's a Qb issue. 

That's because he was splitting carries with Montgomery (or D'Onta Forman).  That's not a QB issue, that's a team/usage issue.

In 2023, Fields had 124 rush attempts... Hurts had 150 (averages 168 per season).  Lamar averages 167 per season.  QB's can run a lot and their RB's can produce.  Yes, the QB does matter, but I think the bigger issue is the system and supporting cast than the QB - in terms of how (fantasy), relevant a RB can be.

 

In Fields' first 6 starts, he was 4-2, completed 65.8% of his passes had 5 TD's and 1 Int, had a 93 passer rating and 50+ QBR.  In those 6 games, Najee Harris averaged 2 receptions and 85 total yards (had 1 TD), per game.  With Wilson, Harris averaged 2 receptions and 74 total yards (had 5 TD), per game.  The usage/production, despite the lesser amount of stacked boxes didn't really change... only the TD's, because my guess is the goal line carries.  In looking, the 5 TD's he scored with Wilson, 3 were 1 yard carries and the other 2 were 10 yards.  The one with Fields was 36 yards.  Harris averaged 11.5 fpg with Fields and 12 with Wilson in the end, so the stacked boxes really meant nothing.

If Fields played all year, like he did those 6 games, his final numbers would have been 66.3%/3134/13/4... Jalen Hurts was 68.7/2903/18/5.  Are you going to tell me that's a huge difference in favor of Hurts?  If so, then does one QB having AJ Brown & Devonta Smith and the other having George Pickens & some guy named Austin have anything to do with that difference?

[GobbleDog 996]

3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

If Fields played all year, like he did those 6 games, his final numbers would have been 66.3%/3134/13/4... Jalen Hurts was 68.7/2903/18/5.  Are you going to tell me that's a huge difference in favor of Hurts?  If so, then does one QB having AJ Brown & Devonta Smith and the other having George Pickens & some guy named Austin have anything to do with that difference?

Fair enough. Fields actually did better than I remembered... 10 Tds in 6 games is 28.3 for a full season - though half were rushing which ain't good news for Hall.  Obviously, all the Eagles players thrived because they're good all around (including Qb) - led league in possession time, 7th in first downs & offensive scoring, etc. 

So at the end of the day... are you buying Hall at adp (Rb15+-)?  In spite of stacked fronts (which apparently mean nothing), an offense that probably won't score much, get few 1st downs, and a team projected to win 5.5 games? Not to mention Fields probably vultures 100 carries and some of the few scoring chances they do get.?.

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

12 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Fair enough. Fields actually did better than I remembered... 10 Tds in 6 games is 28.3 for a full season - though half were rushing which ain't good news for Hall.  Obviously, all the Eagles players thrived because they're good all around (including Qb) - led league in possession time, 7th in first downs & offensive scoring, etc. 

So at the end of the day... are you buying Hall at adp (Rb15+-)?  In spite of stacked fronts (which apparently mean nothing), an offense that probably won't score much, get few 1st downs, and a team projected to win 5.5 games? Not to mention Fields probably vultures 100 carries and some of the few scoring chances they do get.?.

I'm rather curious about the approach the Jets plan on taking with the offense.  Both Glenn and Engstrand came from the Lions.  Are they going to try and recreate the Lions offense with Fields who's the complete opposite Jared Goff?  That'll be interesting.  I can certainly understand the reservations from that perspective.

Fields doesn't move the needle for me on whether I draft Hall or not... if it did, it probably would sling me more in Hall's favor than against.  Like I said, I'm not sure what kind of offense the Jets plan on running.  I like Garrett Wilson, but Josh Reynolds(?), Allen Lazard(?), Tyler Johnson(?)... I don't know about that.  They certainly don't really have any TE's to worry about either.  I think their offense is similar, but better than the Steelers last year.  The Steelers OLine, was about league average.  From what I've read, the Jets are expected to be the in back end of the top 10... so slightly better.  I think Hall is a better RB, overall than Harris, by a decent margin.  I think Garrett Wilson is a lot better than Pickens.  According to this, the Jets have a rather easy schedule.  Last year, Hall was RB15.  I don't see why he can't do just as well, maybe even better... because I think the Jets were a hot mess under Saleh.

Looking at the adp, of the guys taken after him, I'm not sure how many of them over Hall.  I'd take Cook.  I might take Hampton with the upside of being in LA.  Maybe another rookie or 2... maybe.  I think 12 to 15 is about right.  If I'm getting him #34 overall, that implies pick 10 in a 12-teamer, right.  If my first 2 picks are Nico Collins and Derrick Henry, I think I'd be ok with him as my RB2.  That said, if I can get a receiver like Mike Evans at #34 then Hampton at #39 (or Cook), I'd probably do that.  But, I wouldn't be upset with Hall and then DJ Moore.

[weepaws 3,191]

Low rb 2 , but I would rather have him as a rb3.  But 14 team league, he’s a rb2.