On Bryce Young (he might be good)

[nobody 2,671]

Obviously not a hot take.  Plenty of hype has been built around young, but I have a different spin on it.

So we all are supposed to believe that since he was NFL caliber last 8 or so games, then he'll be great now, and then most importantly all the media members who rode his jock will be vindicated.

The hardest part of predicting a player's success to me is figuring out their head space.  Are they a head case?  For qbs, are they leaders?  Will people follow?  For instance, for whatever reason players seem to hate Russell Wilson, and for whatever reason Darnold will crack when it's time to play a big game.  

Well something came out last year about Bryce Young that gave me hope that he might be good, and get ready to scoff.  Here it is ... It came to light that at some point his girl dumped him to chase that NBA clout.  Now I know.  I can hear it already.  "OMG these guys are pros.  Some girl isn't going to effect his game.  OMG." 

But I'm hear to tell you these guys are human beings.  They are not robots.  Getting dumped can shake a guy.  Pau Gasol got dumped by his chick and was about 85% of himself for a year and a half.  

Now with Bryce it's tough.  Is he a Darnold type that can only play well in low pressure games?  Ie, getting benched and then coming back in is a lot less pressure than being the franchise savior.  OR.... Did he just need to get his mind right after his chick bounced?  

Hard to say.  He didn't completely lay an egg against Georgia in the national championship, but I wouldn't say he bathed himself in glory either, but that was also Georgia's defense with future NFL talent all over it.  Me?  Touch much in the mentals for me to mess with him, but he can probably be league average starter next year.  And with that terrible defense, he's going to be slinging it.  League average plus high volume is probably going to equal a fantasy qb1.  

[LaChup 233]

Imagine how hard Travis is going to fall when Rat Face dumps him? He sucked twice as bad when he got her, now he's going to suck four times as bad when she dumps him? Maybe it's time to retire.

Before some of you start hating me because I called her Rat Face, just know that it's not necessarily a bad thing. Look up rat face celebrities and you will see that they are pretty popular with the youth these days. It would be so much easier to understand if Travis played for the Packers.

[nobody 2,671]

Who is Travis?  Travis Hunter?  

Oh wait.  You're talking Kelce.  That's a love for the ages.

[JagFan 164]

2 hours ago, LaChup said:

Imagine how hard Travis is going to fall when Rat Face dumps him? He sucked twice as bad when he got her, now he's going to suck four times as bad when she dumps him? Maybe it's time to retire.

Before some of you start hating me because I called her Rat Face, just know that it's not necessarily a bad thing. Look up rat face celebrities and you will see that they are pretty popular with the youth these days. It would be so much easier to understand if Travis played for the Packers.

You should be ASHAMED!  How dare you degrade rats like that!  You know they have feelings too…

[GobbleDog 996]

On 5/23/2025 at 4:50 PM, nobody said:

And with that terrible defense, he's going to be slinging it.

And with that terrible defense, the Panthers had the 2nd lowest time-of-possession in the NFL last year. 

Bad defense ain't always great for fantasy Qb stats.

[Ray_T 753]

18 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

And with that terrible defense, the Panthers had the 2nd lowest time-of-possession in the NFL last year. 

Bad defense ain't always great for fantasy Qb stats.

no, it generally means the offense doesnt get much time on the field.   no time for them to REALLY get in a groove either.   and if the other defense can get a 3 and out after their team scores a TD.   a second long drive can really kill the opposing offense causing them to get cold.

its definitely a balancing act and the Panthers have a lot of holes to fill in that lineup on both sides of the ball.

[polecatt 478]

I think the jury is still out on him, but he did make some big improvements from his rookie season to year 2.

Mostly, the amount of times he was sacked went way down, from a horrific 62 in his rookie season, to a respectable 29 in his 2nd. If he is learning to get rid of the ball that much quicker, it's a good sign. He had 6 rushing TDs too, that's a sign he knows when to tuck and run perhaps.

Of course as the Panthers continue to improve, hopefully, on offense, it will help him out a bit as well.

For fantasy purposes, he's depth with potential for a bit more.

[Ray_T 753]

On 5/26/2025 at 11:27 AM, polecatt said:

I think the jury is still out on him, but he did make some big improvements from his rookie season to year 2.

Mostly, the amount of times he was sacked went way down, from a horrific 62 in his rookie season, to a respectable 29 in his 2nd. If he is learning to get rid of the ball that much quicker, it's a good sign. He had 6 rushing TDs too, that's a sign he knows when to tuck and run perhaps.

Of course as the Panthers continue to improve, hopefully, on offense, it will help him out a bit as well.

For fantasy purposes, he's depth with potential for a bit more.

yeah, and this is one of those situations where his stats can improve in 2 ways.

1) (the obvious one)   bring in players to improve the offense.

2) the not so obvious one, bring in players to help the defense.   while this seems to be not as important I fully disagree.  if the other team is constantly putting together long, sustained drives, the offense does not get enough time on the field.    so when the D gets better, your time of possession and the number of plays you can run on offense gets larger.   and if the D gets some turnovers the short field means more of their offensive drives end in points (hopefully TD's)

in my mind the D was pretty bad last year, so any improvement there helps the offense too.   

[weepaws 3,191]

Streamer.  

[JagFan 164]

On 5/31/2025 at 5:19 PM, Ray_T said:

yeah, and this is one of those situations where his stats can improve in 2 ways.

1) (the obvious one)   bring in players to improve the offense.

2) the not so obvious one, bring in players to help the defense.   while this seems to be not as important I fully disagree.  if the other team is constantly putting together long, sustained drives, the offense does not get enough time on the field.    so when the D gets better, your time of possession and the number of plays you can run on offense gets larger.   and if the D gets some turnovers the short field means more of their offensive drives end in points (hopefully TD's)

in my mind the D was pretty bad last year, so any improvement there helps the offense too.   

I prefer QBs on teams that have horrible def’s.  The quicker they get down, and by a lot…gets the offense passing early and often!

[Ray_T 753]

5 hours ago, JagFan said:

I prefer QBs on teams that have horrible def’s.  The quicker they get down, and by a lot…gets the offense passing early and often!

for fantasy yes. 

But the team is also trying to develop a QB.    The extra pressure of not having a defense that can perform may not necessarily be good for the development of the player.

there is also a point where the bad defense really does hinder the QB numbers.    if its a bad run D the other team can run the ball all the way down the field and kill off a good chunk of the quarter. 

so you want a D that defends the run well and gives up plays in the pass game. (for fantasy purposes)  that is the sweet spot for fantasy if you have a very good QB running the offense

[weepaws 3,191]

I think that can backfire on a ff owner, the Qb might be the reason the team is way behind, or in trying to play catch that can lead into turn overs by the Qb trying to rally, unless its Brady.   But he’s not available 

[JagFan 164]

10 hours ago, Ray_T said:

for fantasy yes. 

But the team is also trying to develop a QB.    The extra pressure of not having a defense that can perform may not necessarily be good for the development of the player.

there is also a point where the bad defense really does hinder the QB numbers.    if its a bad run D the other team can run the ball all the way down the field and kill off a good chunk of the quarter. 

so you want a D that defends the run well and gives up plays in the pass game. (for fantasy purposes)  that is the sweet spot for fantasy if you have a very good QB running the offense

Totally agree.  Guys like Young are at a huge disadvantage coming into the league because he played for a college coaching staff known for not developing QBs for the next level. 

[nobody 2,671]

I heard something on a podcast that piqued some thought.

The gist was that during his late season run, Young hit a bunch of deep shots at an unsustainable rate implying the run was good luck.

I haven't seen the stats personally, and these guys say stuff just to say stuff all the time, so take it with a grain of salt, but it might be worth consideration.

[weepaws 3,191]

He’s not worthy of a draft pick, he’s a streamer.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

14 hours ago, nobody said:

I heard something on a podcast that piqued some thought.

The gist was that during his late season run, Young hit a bunch of deep shots at an unsustainable rate bad implying the run was good luck.

I haven't seen the stats personally, and these guys say stuff just to say stuff all the time, so take it with a grain of salt, but it might be worth consideration.

At quick glance, I'm thinking this might be cherry picking.  I looked at the box scores of his last 7 games, and I'm not seeing anything that stands out.  I don't have a Fantasy Pros account, but their preview of QB plays over 20, 30, 40, and 50 yards... Young didn't rank in the top 8 of any of those categories.

[JagFan 164]

10 hours ago, weepaws said:

He’s not worthy of a draft pick, he’s a streamer.  

This is correct

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

If you're in a 1 QB league, very few QB's are worth drafting.  Well, it depends on where you think the drop off or value is.  Meaning, at what point is the difference nominal?  Last year, 12 QB's averaged over 17 fpg.  If you don't think there's a draftable difference between 15 and 18 point guys and view them all as streamers, then only 7 QB's averaged 19 fpg.  The number increases to 10 QB's if you reduce the range to 17 instead of 18.  So, if you're in a 12-team league and you don't have a top 6 (20 or more fpg), there's not really much of a point in drafting a QB.  In 2023, there were only 4 (the next 10 had a maximum gap of 1.8 fpg).

Obviously, the top 5/10/15 change every year and the we don't know the results ahead of time.  For that reason, we draft QB's in the hope that find one of those top end guys.  Let's say the top end "draftable" QB is at 19 fpg.  FFToday's QB projections only has 4 QB's hitting that number (323 total points - standard scoring).  ESPN has 6.  One website I looked at, has 5... yes, all 5 are the same: Allen, Burrow, Jackson, Hurts, and Daniels (Mahomes was #6 on ESPN). 

Between #7 (Mayfield) & #17 (Lawrence), ESPN is projecting a 1.8 fpg difference.
Between #6 (Mayfield) & #15 (Herbert), FFToday is projecting a 1.9 fpg difference.
Between #6 (Mayfield) & #21 (Tua), a website I looked at is projecting a 2.2 fpg difference.

All 3 of those sources seem to agree that Young will be around 15 fpg.  What's "Draftable" to you?

[weepaws 3,191]

Sixteen qbs avg more than nineteen points per game last season, those qbs are the ones to draft, 15 points per game from a Qb, isn’t even worthy of streaming.   

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Sixteen qbs avg more than nineteen points per game last season, those qbs are the ones to draft, 15 points per game from a Qb, isn’t even worthy of streaming.   

In what scoring system is that?  There was 9, if you count Joe Milton and Garoppolo who only played in 1 game.

[weepaws 3,191]

Use pretty much the one used my ff today. These qbs are listed as avg 19 plus points last season. 

Jackson

Burrow

Mayfield

Allen

Daniels

Goff

Darnold

Nix

Hurts

Murray

Mahomes

G Smith

Purdy

Herbert

Tags

Wilson

Richardson

Dak

Flacco

All of those qbs played eight or more games, and I did miss count it was nineteen.  But not all of them would I draft going into this next season.  Richardson being one of them, I think D Jones takes that job, or will once Richardson gets hurt.  Wouldn’t count on Darnold who is leaving a great job for a lower level one.