Keeper League trade (Thoughts)

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

I'm in a 10-team 2-QB Salary cap keeper league.  I'm not restricted on the number of players I can keep, but am restricted on price... $28 (keeping it simple).  Here's my roster (and costs):

QB's
Joe Burrow    $7.88
Baker Mayfield    $7.63
C.J. Stroud    $5.83
Michael Penix    $0.84

RB's
Saquon Barkley    $8.67
Jonathan Taylor    $8.05
Rachaad White    $5.34
Tyrone Tracy    $3.24
Blake Corum    $1.35

WR's
Ja'Marr Chase    $9.60
Courtland Sutton    $5.59
Jaxon Smith-Njigba    $5.17
Chris Godwin    $3.85
Rome Odunze    $3.77
Rashee Rice    $3.37
Khalil Shakir    $2.92
Brandon Aiyuk    $1.13
 

I can keep Burrow, Penix, Barkley, and Chase for $27.  Thing is, Barkley tallied 482 touches (including the playoffs), last year and I'd prefer to sell a year too early than a year too late.

I have a buyer for Barkley, and keeping Taylor gives me financial flexibility.  But a trade offer I'm thinking of offering is to the McCaffrey owner.... Mayfield + Taylor for McCaffrey.  Here's that owner's roster.

QB's
Tua Tagovailoa    $5.18
Sam Darnold    $4.62
Mason Rudolph    $1.63
Trey Lance    $0.39

RB's
Joe Mixon    $6.37
James Conner    $6.20
Christian McCaffrey    $4.80
Brian Robinson    $2.87
Jerome Ford    $2.41

WR's
Malik Nabers    $6.27
Mike Evans    $6.18
Tee Higgins    $4.22
Chris Olave    $4.16
Puka Nacua    $3.38
Andrei Iosivas    $1.99
Ja'Lynn Polk    $0.69

 

Do you think that deal is even or lopsided based on the parameters (2 QB league, $28 cap)?

His keepers could be Mayfield, Taylor, Nabers, Higgins, & Nacua for $27.98

[Ray_T 753]

I was gonna ask why you want to make this deal, but I guess that is obvious.

what I dont like about CMC is his injury history.   but then again Taylor also has been injured a fair bit.

JT has also been injured a bit.    playing 11, 10 and 14 games the last 3 years.

both players have been injured though When CMC gets injured the year tends to be a writeoff.

he is the ultimate boom bust player.

But CMC is 29.   This is likely his last kick at the can in terms of putting up elite numbers.   JT is 26.  so you are giving up potentially a lot of futures...... but if you think this trade gives you a championship you should consider it.

I wouldnt be inclined to veto this.  the other guy is giving up some present value but gaining an awful lot of future values.   This is truly one of those trades that could burn you as easily as crown you king of the league.   its a coin flip.

but in a years time he will still have a Jonathan Taylor and a solid second QB and CMC will be 30.   At that point he could be untradeable.

anyhow, I'd definitely say no to the Veto.   I just put forward an argument that there is a legit chance you may not actually win the trade.   That should be enough unless you are in a veto happy league.

 

[Showboat 256]

It also kind of depends on if there are escalators on keeper values.  In that case, it might not be worth keeping JT more than one year.  I'd rather take my chances on CMC (and his lower keeper cost) and a fairly decent set of receivers.  Whether the other guy accepts the trade probably depends on his chances to draft a QB.

[nobody 2,672]

I think it's a fair deal.  

[weepaws 3,191]

I think it’s a very good deal for both teams, team one could have a dynamite backfield, and team inherits a Qb, and loses some going from CMC to Taylor , but not much.   

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

Our league doesn't veto trades, no one is trying to rip anyone off, plus just because some has an opinion about a player it doesn't mean they're right.  The NFL and the future, are finicky things.

 

My thinking on this is that I can't (and am not), keeping Mayfield.  I don't think that Taylor + his cost is enough to get McCaffrey, so my theory was to include Mayfield since it upgrades him at the QB position.  Both RB's carry an injury risk, so I figured we'd exchange injury risk RB's, but the cost for me is to throw in another player because his guy has more upside and is cheaper.

 

Every player who's drafted after R10, their draft value increases 3 rounds... so R11 this year will be R8 next year.  For players drafted in the first 10 round, they increase by 2, so R10 player will be R8 next year.  Draft rounds for the 3 involved are Mayfield - 9, Taylor & McCaffrey - 1

[LaChup 233]

I wouldn't do it. I would rather watch his team come in dead last. That team is atrocious.

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

7 hours ago, LaChup said:

I wouldn't do it. I would rather watch his team come in dead last. That team is atrocious.

That team won the championship last year.

[weepaws 3,191]

Never would have guessed that. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Never would have guessed that. 

HIS team: 182.2 
Sam Darnold    25.78
Mason Rudolph    13.02
James Conner    2.8
Tee Higgins    41.1
Mike Evans    29.7
Puka Nacua    22.9
Malik Nabers    36.1
T.J. Hockenson    11.8
Cowboys    -4
Chad Ryland    3

    
MY team:  175.84
Joe Burrow    36.98
Baker Mayfield    34.56
Saquon Barkley    18.9
Jonathan Taylor    27.6
Ja'Marr Chase    19.2
Jaxon Smith-Njigba    6.2
Courtland Sutton    16.5
Chig Okonkwo    10.9
Colts    -4
Joshua Karty    9

[LaChup 233]

I'll use the proverbial....."I wanna play in your league" here. 

[Showboat 256]

That provides a bit more info.  If it is only required to start 1 RB, not sure why the other team would do the trade.  They can keep a solid WR group with CMC and focus their draft on QB and RB/WR depth.  

[Ray_T 753]

10 minutes ago, Showboat said:

That provides a bit more info.  If it is only required to start 1 RB, not sure why the other team would do the trade.  They can keep a solid WR group with CMC and focus their draft on QB and RB/WR depth.  

a good RB who puts up yardage both rushing and receiving should be about to put up more fantasy points than a WR2 in most formats.   in his case Taylor (or CMC if he makes the trade) is his RB2.  and I see no reason why you would bench either to play any WR2 out there.

clearly this is why hes looking at the CMC deal.  I get it.

if the guy is healthy, that puts him over the top for the year.   I'm just not sure he is healthy.

Btw:  I do like the team you've put together.  Nice job.

[Showboat 256]

55 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

a good RB who puts up yardage both rushing and receiving should be about to put up more fantasy points than a WR2 in most formats.   in his case Taylor (or CMC if he makes the trade) is his RB2.  and I see no reason why you would bench either to play any WR2 out there.

Hmmmm.  I didn't think he would be able to keep both Barkley and CMC (or Taylor).  My understanding was that Barkley was being traded in some other deal and he'd be keeping CMC and some other lower cost player.  My response was from the other team's perspective. 

[Super Cubs 154]

Way too much thinking for me.  If I'm the other owner I would  tell you thanks for the offer but I'm good with what I got. Keeping Mixon, CMC, Robinson, Nabers, Puka, Higgins.  It seems like a lot of good players will be dropped back into the draft pool.  Plus you have the rookies.  Again way too much thinking for me. I have a hard enough time figuring out which 6 players to keep with out any restrictions.

[weepaws 3,191]

I would take the deal if I was team b.  

[Ray_T 753]

either way, the important thing is I dont think anybody here would be onboard with a veto.

and normally when I look at whether to veto a deal I dont just look at present value.  I look at futures too.   and taking that into account the deal makes sense for both sides.

unfortunately some leagues will veto a deal just because they dont like it and it gives someone a very good chance at winning it all.  but in my opinion that is not a reason to veto a trade.

 

the deal needs to be one where you cannot understand why one party would make that trade.

and

the deal needs to reek of collusion.

I honestly dont think either applies here.  I can actually see why he would want to make a deal like this.   I can also see why TBay would too.

for those reasons, I would not veto under any circumstance unless you can prove some sort of collusion.   even then.... the trade looks fair taking both present value and future value into account.

so my answer TBay..... I dont think you need to concern yourself with this one.

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

On 7/18/2025 at 8:01 PM, Super Cubs said:

Way too much thinking for me.  If I'm the other owner I would  tell you thanks for the offer but I'm good with what I got. Keeping Mixon, CMC, Robinson, Nabers, Puka, Higgins.  It seems like a lot of good players will be dropped back into the draft pool.  Plus you have the rookies.  Again way too much thinking for me. I have a hard enough time figuring out which 6 players to keep with out any restrictions.

Something to keep in mind, it's a 2 QB league, so a lot of QB's are kept.  Talking to people, here's a list of QB's that are probably going to be kept.

Bo Nix
Brock Purdy
Drake Maye
J.J. McCarthy
Jalen Hurts
Jared Goff
Jayden Daniels
Joe Burrow
Jordan Love
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Matthew Stafford
Michael Penix
 

Odds are, at least guys like Mahomes, Herbert, & Mahomes will be drafted in the first 9 picks... probably one or two more.  At best, this guys best QB may be:
Sam Darnold
Kyler Murray
Geno Smith
Aaron Rodgers
Caleb Williams
Bryce Young
Kirk Cousins
Tua Tagovailoa
Russell Wilson

 

He'll probably have to draft 2 at the wrap around.  If he really wanted Mixon, I think he'd have no problems getting him at his #10/#11 wrap around as well as getting Robinson even later.  Now, if he thinks that one of those guys will equal Mayfield this coming season, then I'd agree, it makes no sense to do this deal.

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

11 hours ago, Ray_T said:

either way, the important thing is I dont think anybody here would be onboard with a veto.

and normally when I look at whether to veto a deal I dont just look at present value.  I look at futures too.   and taking that into account the deal makes sense for both sides.

unfortunately some leagues will veto a deal just because they dont like it and it gives someone a very good chance at winning it all.  but in my opinion that is not a reason to veto a trade.

 

the deal needs to be one where you cannot understand why one party would make that trade.

and

the deal needs to reek of collusion.

I honestly dont think either applies here.  I can actually see why he would want to make a deal like this.   I can also see why TBay would too.

for those reasons, I would not veto under any circumstance unless you can prove some sort of collusion.   even then.... the trade looks fair taking both present value and future value into account.

so my answer TBay..... I dont think you need to concern yourself with this one.

Yeah, I wasn't worried about the collusion/veto aspect, I was just curious if people thought the offer was absurd or reasonable given the circumstances.

[Showboat 256]

5 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Something to keep in mind, it's a 2 QB league, so a lot of QB's are kept.  Talking to people, here's a list of QB's that are probably going to be kept.

Bo Nix
Brock Purdy
Drake Maye
J.J. McCarthy
Jalen Hurts
Jared Goff
Jayden Daniels
Joe Burrow
Jordan Love
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Matthew Stafford
Michael Penix
 

Odds are, at least guys like Mahomes, Herbert, & Mahomes will be drafted in the first 9 picks... probably one or two more.  At best, this guys best QB may be:
Sam Darnold
Kyler Murray
Geno Smith
Aaron Rodgers
Caleb Williams
Bryce Young
Kirk Cousins
Tua Tagovailoa
Russell Wilson

 

He'll probably have to draft 2 at the wrap around.  If he really wanted Mixon, I think he'd have no problems getting him at his #10/#11 wrap around as well as getting Robinson even later.  Now, if he thinks that one of those guys will equal Mayfield this coming season, then I'd agree, it makes no sense to do this deal.

The offer is certainly reasonable, but I'll stand by my original response - acceptance by the other team depends on what they think they can get in the draft at the QB position (as well as their opinion of Mayfield).  Some (and I think at one time you were one) have suggested that Mayfield is just a mediocre QB.  The crystal ball question being: was last season Mayfield's career year that he will never again equal or will he be able to build upon it becoming an elite (or at least borderline elite) franchise QB from here on out.

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

29 minutes ago, Showboat said:

The offer is certainly reasonable, but I'll stand by my original response - acceptance by the other team depends on what they think they can get in the draft at the QB position (as well as their opinion of Mayfield).  Some (and I think at one time you were one) have suggested that Mayfield is just a mediocre QB.  The crystal ball question being: was last season Mayfield's career year that he will never again equal or will he be able to build upon it becoming an elite (or at least borderline elite) franchise QB from here on out.

Yes, that's fair.  I'm ok with that.  Everyone's opinions are different... all good.

My opinion hasn't changed on Mayfield.  He's on one of the most talented offenses in football.  I think there's about 25 other QB's in this league who could put up the numbers he can (or better).  I don't think there's many teams that have a top 2 WR corp better than Evans and Godwin.  McMillan came along well with more playing time and with the addition of top tier draft talent in Egbuka, I think the Bucs have the #1 WR corp in the NFL.  With Irving and White, I don't think there's too many teams that provide a 1-2 punch like the Bucs.  Do teams like the Eagles, Ravens, Falcons,  San Fran, and Lions have an RB1 better than Irving?  Sure... but I'll take White over all of their #2's, with the exception of Detroit.  They also have a top 10 OLine vs the run and the pass.  I think PFF ranked both of them in the top 7 last year.  Cade Otton is a perfectly acceptable TE in the NFL.  Are there guys better than him?  Of course, but he's a legit starter in the league.

Mayfield's fantasy production is much like Rachaad White's from 2023.  He was RB6 I believe.  Why?  Opportunity and volume.  That's no different for Mayfield.  They'll throw the ball 560 to 580 times this year.  He's got WR's to where he should compete 65% for at least 7.5 ypa.  I don't think I could name 10 QB's who couldn't do that in Tampa.  The baseline for passing yards by any QB who plays in Tampa should start with 4000 yards and 30 TD's.

To note, I didn't draft Mayfield last year in my keeper league, I drafted Trevor Lawrence.  I only traded him for Mayfield because of bye weeks.  Jacksonville had the same bye week as Cincy (or Houston - can't remember).  When I offered him to the guy who had Mayfield, he jumped at the offer.

[weepaws 3,191]

I think Mayfield is going to have another very good season, maybe, maybe not matching last season, but he’s going to be in the top seven at the Qb slot.  I would take the deal. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

3 hours ago, weepaws said:

I think Mayfield is going to have another very good season, maybe, maybe not matching last season, but he’s going to be in the top seven at the Qb slot.  I would take the deal. 

Yeah, I don't see why he wouldn't. 

[WhiteWonder 2,737]

other owner has a good team if this is PPR and has some flex. Nabers, Higgins, Evans and Puka? even without CMC last year still had Conner and Mixon and Darnold didn't pumpkin until after the FF playoffs right?

it's a fair trade, I'm just not totally sure why the other owner would do it. Mayfield and Taylor will eat up almost $16 of his $28 cap.... 

 

As for your team, there is definitely a world in which I keep Burrow, Penix, Chase, JSN and Rice.  That world being one where this league is PPR and starts 3 WR or 2 WR 1 FLX

 

 

edit: my math was off on who he could keep right now. Looks like he can't keep both QB's, CMC and still have Nabers, Higgins and Puka

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

9 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

other owner has a good team if this is PPR and has some flex. Nabers, Higgins, Evans and Puka? even without CMC last year still had Conner and Mixon and Darnold didn't pumpkin until after the FF playoffs right?

it's a fair trade, I'm just not totally sure why the other owner would do it. Mayfield and Taylor will eat up almost $16 of his $28 cap.... 

 

As for your team, there is definitely a world in which I keep Burrow, Penix, Chase, JSN and Rice.  That world being one where this league is PPR and starts 3 WR or 2 WR 1 FLX

 

 

edit: my math was off on who he could keep right now. Looks like he can't keep both QB's, CMC and still have Nabers, Higgins and Puka

We start 2QB, 1 RB, 1 RB/WR flex, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE flex.  So, we could start 4 WR's and 1 RB.

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

So, to give an update....

I made 2 trades... Barkley and Mayfield.

To the guy picking 2nd overall... we're flipflopping 1st and 3rd round picks.  I get pick #2 & #22, he's getting Barkley, pick #9 & 29.

To the guy picking 10th (this thread)... he gave me pick #11 for Mayfield.

 

So, as we stand, I think my keepers are Burrow, Penix, Chase, JSN, and Odunze and I'll have picks 2, 11, 12, 22, & 32 in the first 4 rounds.  With that, I'll throw Taylor back and give me a chance to get him back (or Jeanty).

[WhiteWonder 2,737]

Why odunze over rice?

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

1 hour ago, WhiteWonder said:

Why odunze over rice?

With Rice coming off and ACL and the court ruling possibly resulting in a suspension, my guess is that this year his ceiling won't be high.  He has a somewhat high draft value (9th round - which will become a 7th next year if I keep him),  but I think with what I just mentioned, I could get a him back somewhere later in the draft.