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Matt Mueller

Players you think are underrated at ADP

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On 8/21/2025 at 8:27 PM, Ray_T said:

underrated:  how bout Cade Otton in Tampa.   solid numbers last year.  

When I saw that Otton's snap count over the past two years was among the highest among all Te's, I was intrigued.  Thought maybe I'd found some hidden gold. Then closer examination...

Those "solid numbers last year"... came from three games.  Wk 7 (Evans injured early), Wk 8 (Evans out), Wk 9 (Evans out).  The other 11 games Otton averaged 6.5 ppg which last year would've been Te 32. According to some articles, the deal with Otton is he's just not a very talented receiver, as partly indicated by his 8 drops last year (highest among Te's).  He flashed in those three games because the Bucs were desperate for receiving options and fluke games happen. But you don't want to rely on Otton on a weekly basis. 

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29 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

When I saw that Otton's snap count over the past two years was among the highest among all Te's, I was intrigued.  Thought maybe I'd found some hidden gold. Then closer examination...

Those "solid numbers last year"... came from three games.  Wk 7 (Evans injured early), Wk 8 (Evans out), Wk 9 (Evans out).  The other 11 games Otton averaged 6.5 ppg which last year would've been Te 32. According to some articles, the deal with Otton is he's just not a very talented receiver, as partly indicated by his 8 drops last year (highest among Te's).  He flashed in those three games because the Bucs were desperate for receiving options and fluke games happen. But you don't want to rely on Otton on a weekly basis. 

yep.   but 2 of the starting WR are out for at least the first 3 or 4 games.

I think he gets a lot of work at least in those games.    once the starting WR leave he will transition from TE1 to TE2 and that process may take 2-4 weeks or may happen instantly. but still.... at his ADP hes great value.

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I took Otton with my last draft pick in round 16.  With Godwin out and not knowing what expect with Egbuka I think he could have a good few weeks to start the season. If not I need someone to drop anyways. 

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Otton might not have a very good start, I’ve been seeing on injury reports he’s questionable for week one. 

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9 hours ago, Super Cubs said:

I took Otton with my last draft

That's amazing value 

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On 8/21/2025 at 6:59 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

That was my thought when he was hired.  After their offseason, I'm not so sure.  Tampa had substantially more talent than the Jags have.

This discussion & the Fields thread were echoing in my ears Sunday.

Thomas could’ve had 120 yards, but Lawrence is still Lawrence.

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8 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

This discussion & the Fields thread were echoing in my ears Sunday.

Thomas could’ve had 120 yards, but Lawrence is still Lawrence.

Yeah, Lawrence isn't good.  That whole offense went from a target to DND for me.  The only Jag I drafted this year was the kicker.  How does a guy get 8(?), targets in a game and come away with 1 catch for 10 yards against a below average defense?

 

Personally, I thought Carolina was going to win.  I think they're going to be better than last year, but like 20+ other teams in Week 1, they played like crap.  We'll see though.

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31 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Yeah, Lawrence isn't good.  That whole offense went from a target to DND for me.  The only Jag I drafted this year was the kicker.  How does a guy get 8(?), targets in a game and come away with 1 catch for 10 yards against a below average defense?

 

Personally, I thought Carolina was going to win.  I think they're going to be better than last year, but like 20+ other teams in Week 1, they played like crap.  We'll see though.

yeah the shortened pre season definitely hurts the quality of the game the first week or so.   This happened in the CFL when they shortened the pre season to 2 games and moved to an 18 week schedule.

 

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14 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

yeah the shortened pre season definitely hurts the quality of the game the first week or so.   This happened in the CFL when they shortened the pre season to 2 games and moved to an 18 week schedule.

 

I have a feeling that's going to be the NFL in a couple years.  I think they want to push for an 18-game season.

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6 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I have a feeling that's going to be the NFL in a couple years.  I think they want to push for an 18-game season.

of course they do.  its all about making money.  and more football games mean more money for everyone

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7 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Yeah, Lawrence isn't good.  That whole offense went from a target to DND for me.  The only Jag I drafted this year was the kicker.  How does a guy get 8(?), targets in a game and come away with 1 catch for 10 yards against a below average defense?

 

Personally, I thought Carolina was going to win.  I think they're going to be better than last year, but like 20+ other teams in Week 1, they played like crap.  We'll see though.

Totally agree that Lawrence isn’t good.  Especially looking at his week one stats:  61.29% completion rate for 178 yards and 1 TD.  I have to admit that I didn’t realize how bad that was until I found the next closest week 1 passing stats to his stats.  61.54% completion rate for only 80 yards more, and 1 TD.  I’d prefer not to call out another overrated QB by name because I don’t think that would be fair to Patrick Mahomes.

OOPS, did I just accidentally say his name?

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46 minutes ago, JagFan said:

Totally agree that Lawrence isn’t good.  Especially looking at his week one stats:  61.29% completion rate for 178 yards and 1 TD.  I have to admit that I didn’t realize how bad that was until I found the next closest week 1 passing stats to his stats.  61.54% completion rate for only 80 yards more, and 1 TD.  I’d prefer not to call out another overrated QB by name because I don’t think that would be fair to Patrick Mahomes.

OOPS, did I just accidentally say his name?

🤣

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