Any good systems or process for ranking players expected to miss games?

[cmh6476 1,045]

I've traditionally just projected them for the 8-12 games or whatever I think their ceiling is to play (guys with known suspensions, likely to start the year on IR, etc.).

But that feels like a flawed system to me.  Because a guy like Rashee Rice or Chris Godwin might end up being a WR4 or WR5 for your team, but in the games they end up playing they could give you a distinct advantage of play similar to a WR2 or even better for your team.

Does anyone do anything weird like going ahead and projecting stats for them over the course of a 17 game season (knowing they'll miss time) so they kind of stand out when you start looking at WRs 25-40?

[Sandy Loam 248]

My process involves not frafting oft-injured players.

HTH.

[cmh6476 1,045]

5 minutes ago, Sandy Loam said:

My process involves not frafting oft-injured players.

HTH.

Diggs?  Aiyuk? Najee?  You aren't buying any shares of these guys?

[Sandy Loam 248]

4 minutes ago, cmh6476 said:

Diggs?  Aiyuk? Najee?  You aren't buying any shares of these guys?

I don't consider Najee as "oft injured."

 

[Super Cubs 154]

For me it goes by need and value at the time of the draft.  We have 2 IR spots so I can stash an injured player.  I try not to reach for an injured player, but if one falls to me and I feel like there is no better options  I'll take a swing. 

[weepaws 3,233]

All players could miss games.   Silly thread. 

[cmh6476 1,045]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

All players could miss games.   Silly thread. 

true, but some players go into the season without the ability to play in 17 games from the get-go, separating players who might.

[nobody 2,736]

You should rank players by what you think their projected points per game to be. 

Then if they don't have a good handcuff that you can get, make sure you focus on bolstering your bench.  If you can't backfill them for the expected time out, that's when you lower them in the rankings.  For instance when Rashee Rice's suspension got moved to mid season, that might become problematic since it'll be harder to backfill during bye weeks.

We know who the injury risk players are.  Gotta have a plan.

[cmh6476 1,045]

3 hours ago, nobody said:

You should rank players by what you think their projected points per game to be. 

Then if they don't have a good handcuff that you can get, make sure you focus on bolstering your bench.  If you can't backfill them for the expected time out, that's when you lower them in the rankings.  For instance when Rashee Rice's suspension got moved to mid season, that might become problematic since it'll be harder to backfill during bye weeks.

We know who the injury risk players are.  Gotta have a plan.

In that sense, you're saying I should project stats for 17 games played for all players and just be mindful of many games you know or expect some players to miss. 

[Ray_T 763]

12 hours ago, cmh6476 said:

I've traditionally just projected them for the 8-12 games or whatever I think their ceiling is to play (guys with known suspensions, likely to start the year on IR, etc.).

But that feels like a flawed system to me.  Because a guy like Rashee Rice or Chris Godwin might end up being a WR4 or WR5 for your team, but in the games they end up playing they could give you a distinct advantage of play similar to a WR2 or even better for your team.

Does anyone do anything weird like going ahead and projecting stats for them over the course of a 17 game season (knowing they'll miss time) so they kind of stand out when you start looking at WRs 25-40?

how I approach it depends on how many games are expected to be missed.

if its one or two I dont typically adjust my ranking all that much.  maybe one or two spots.  any more than 2 games then I look at pro rating based on expected games played.

if you know when the games missed are likely to be that can be helpful.     for example there is a certain player who will have his suspension hearing about a month into the season.   meaning he could play the first 4 or 5 games without being suspended.   but then if he appeals he could stretch that out another week or two (maybe more if you get lucky) but then if its a reasonably lengthy suspension it could get to a point where it affects playoff games if the suspension is long enough.   that is a tough pill to swallow.  so in that case I'd devalue that player quite a bit.  perhaps more than normal.

I have also found that if guys miss time due to injury (ie they miss trainiing camp and the first couple of games).     those players who miss camp have some problems when they return:

1) not on the same page as the rest of the offense. 

2) not in game shape.

this can sometimes take 3-4 games missed at the start of the season  and the player may be unproductive an extra 3-4 games while they get in sync with the offense.    some players (usually veterans)can overcome this quickly but first or second year starters (or if their QB is a first or second year starter) that can take some time.

so I penalize a bit more for those situations in my rankings.   so I do it on a case by case basis.   sorry no tried and true formula.

[weepaws 3,233]

7 hours ago, cmh6476 said:

true, but some players go into the season without the ability to play in 17 games from the get-go, separating players who might.

Which ones? 

[cmh6476 1,045]

I think I already called out guys like rashee rice and Chris godwin.  Brandon aiyuk? Christian Watson?

I'm not debating specific players, I'm going through teams on my own.   I'm asking overall strategy, which some here actually responded to

[LaChup 233]

I will usually use the following metrics for determining value on oft injured and/or troubled players.....V=mc²

Value = Masseuses x Concussions Squared

Example: If Deshaun Watson makes 45 trips to the massage parlor and has 2 concussions in a season, his value is 49. That is usually a no draft for me.

[JagFan 177]

22 hours ago, Sandy Loam said:

I don't consider Najee as "oft injured."

 

I don’t either…but he seems to be at the moment.  And he’s not the back to own in that offense.  So I’m not considering him at all.

[JagFan 177]

17 minutes ago, LaChup said:

I will usually use the following metrics for determining value on oft injured and/or troubled players.....V=mc²

Value = Masseuses x Concussions Squared

Example: If Deshaun Watson makes 45 trips to the massage parlor and has 2 concussions in a season, his value is 49. That is usually a no draft for me.

Not a “happy ending” to his career…

[nobody 2,736]

10 hours ago, cmh6476 said:

I think I already called out guys like rashee rice and Chris godwin.  Brandon aiyuk? Christian Watson?

I'm not debating specific players, I'm going through teams on my own.   I'm asking overall strategy, which some here actually responded to

You should take my drafting 501 class.  If you think you can get value in specific rounds of the draft, you can potentially take risks on injured/suspended players.

In general, I think players get devalued too much for missing games.  You shouldn't just straight pro-rate for missed games. 

There is a difference between knowing a player will be out and a player underperforming.  Drafting a player and he just underperforms is much worse because you're taking up a valuable starting roster stop.  

If you know you someone isn't playing and you have the depth to backfill him, it's not as big of a deal.  It's really more the murkiness of how many games the guy will miss.  Maybe that evens out the foreknowledge he isn't playing.  

[LaChup 233]

Najee's injury (20% vision impairment) to his left eye will force him to cut right 80% of the time. Defensive coordinators are going to key in on this, which will most likely force Najee into a clockwise rotational turn which will guide him over to the left side of the field. He'll need to be careful not to get to close to the sideline, which will appear in double vision for the first half of the season, and will improve to "pretty blurry" for the second half of the season.

[cmh6476 1,045]

On 8/24/2025 at 10:23 AM, Sandy Loam said:

I don't consider Najee as "oft injured."

 

How about Joe Mixon?

[nobody 2,736]

19 hours ago, cmh6476 said:

How about Joe Mixon?

I wouldn't touch Mixon with a 10 foot pole, but if you are this is a great example on the thought process to mitigate the risk.  

Let's say you have an IR slot and you happen to think Mixon comes back by week 5-6.  You are wrong, but if you want to die on that hill then there is potential value.  You could draft Mixon, and then draft Chubb and maybe even Woody Marks. 

However, my take is that backfield will be a mess all season and there is no clear handcuff to mitigate the Mixon risk.  Chubb will probably start.  Marks will probably play 3rd down, and then there is the risk Chubb is washed, so Damien Pierce now becomes a problem.  Couple that with the threat that Mixon could (and probably will) miss far more than 4 games and there's no telling how long it'll take him to get right even when he does come back, and Mixon needs to be significantly derated.

Counter example: Let's say you're worried about CMC and his paper-mache achilles tendons .  Well, you can easily mitigate that risk by drafting Brian Robinson late and if CMC goes down, you have a work horse RB1 ready to step in, so you don't need to really derate CMC draft stock that much.  You just need to be damn sure you get Robinson if you draft CMC.

 

[Gepetto 1,390]

I may consider drafting after my starters are drafted, even then, preferably a 2nd bench player at their position.