Experts Mock Draft Ongoing

[Mike MacGregor 20]

And before you bash on the word "experts", I'm just calling it that because that is the name it has been given.

 

FF Toolbox is running the mock draft involving a bunch of websites, ours included, and we'll do a draft for each of June, July and August. June is underway and we are in the 4th round currently.

 

I was randomly assigned the 8th overall pick. This is WCOFF format - performance + 1 PPR, 4 points per pass TD, starting lineup 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex RB/WR/TE, 1 K, 1 DEF

 

Results so far (image from the 2010 Draft Buddy):

 

 

 

 

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Draft Report (includes commentary on some picks)

 

Here is the commentary on my picks:

 

1.08 RB Rashard Mendenhall, PIT

 

Rashard Mendenhall, come on down with the 8th overall pick in the draft. Now I am not entirely buying into this "Steelers are going to become a smash-mouth running team" theory which a lot of people are peddling these days, but of the available RB options - and with Andre Johnson off the board, I'm not jumping up to take the second WR - Mendenhall looks the part of a solid, talented plus heavy workload back. Of key importance, he had 25 catches last year. Those had to be the quietest 25 catches by a RB in recent memory, but shows he is an all-around threat. Further, Mike Tomlin loves this guy. He's been transparent about that since early last season. With Willie Parker out of the picture and no real competition for carries, the Steelers will need to lean on Mendy, and he should be in line for a big season.

 

2.05 WR Miles Austin, DAL

 

Miles Austin bust onto the scene last year in a big way. Virtually unused through the first three games, Austin finished with a regular season line of 81-1,320-11 to earn the undisputed #1 WR role in Big D, and he showed enough for me to feel confident it wasn't a fluke. While Austin doesn't have the body of work to compare to some of the WR drafted in front of him, I'd say he has less red flags too - a more reliable QB than Fitz or CJ, and much younger legs than Moss or Wayne. Dez Bryant isn't a threat to Austin's production in the short-term. Austin is set up to have great campaign in 2010.

 

 

3.08 RB Shonn Greene, NYJ

 

I thought Greene might go in the 1st. I really thought he would go in the 2nd. Apparently everyone is scared off from his lack of pass catching prowess, and it does have to be considered in this scoring, but to get the feature RB on one of the best rushing and defensive teams in the league looks like he's been slightly discounted here to the mid-3rd. Whether you believe LT is on his last legs or not, Greene is still the feature guy with lots of touches to go around for him to have an excellent fantasy year, even if it comes without a lot of catches.

[RLLD 3,505]

Round 1:

Pretty much unfolded as one might expect, William at #10 is a bit high for him, Johnson at 11 is also a bit high given what else was available.

 

Round 2:

CBS goes WR-WR to great effect....

 

FBG is taking some chances, first by making Calvin his #1 and then addind a rookie RB as his #1...

 

FFtrader is also taking chances, making Williams and Wells his RB-RB selections, he is going to need to back them up later

 

FansFantasy go with Charles at 2.11? With Bree's, Manning and Rice still there? He already had CJ from round one.... Words defy me.....

 

Round 3:

Fans got LUCKY to grab Bree's, he didn't deserve him after passing to take....Charles....

 

Benson at 3.12? how about ....no....

 

 

 

In so far as your approach

I like the Mendy pick, you know for certain he is going to be a beast for at least six games, and you augment him VERY nicely by getting Greene. The tandem is solid, two young - yet proven- quantities with the very good potential to last the season, and perform strong during a playoff run too. The Austin pick was a good call, nice value there. I am interested to see how to approach and handle 4.05, this is a pivotal pick for your team...

[PackYourNut 47]

So Far, I'm diggin DraftAnalyzers team.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Thanks RLLD. I'm not that bullish on Greene, but I'm a value guy, and it just seemed like he had fallen far enough his situation and what we know of his talent he in fact became a mild value in the mid-3rd. I think Tomlinson's contribution to the Jets is going to decent, but still plenty of touches to go around there the way they run their offense. And they were confident enough letting Jones walk - perhaps arrogance on their part - but it says something to their belief in Greene.

 

As for the next pick, I had narrowed it to Steve Smith (Giants) and Mike Sims-Walker. Don't want to take the first TE, and also with all of Brady, Romo, Schaub, Favre still available, I was going to wait on QB. Three of the teams to my left (looking at the serpentine draft board) already have a QB. Happy to be convinced otherwise if you can manage it though

[Mike MacGregor 20]

So Far, I'm diggin DraftAnalyzers team.

 

I agree. Things have fallen well for him. Early take is I like that 4th-5th pick in the draft. 4th is better I'd say since I'm more confident in the top 4 than Gore, but I do like Gore as a solid 5th selection.

 

I would have had Brandon Marshall ahead of Wells, Mathews myself, so he may not have gotten the king of receptions there is some drafts.

 

If drafting 4th/5th though, have RB + WR and you don't really want a QB in the 3rd, any of Greene/Moreno/Thomas were there for a solid RB2 option. Yep, all in all that is a good draft spot.

 

I liked the RotoWorld Greg Jennings-Sidney Rice 2.12/3.01 selections.

[RLLD 3,505]

Thanks RLLD. I'm not that bullish on Greene, but I'm a value guy, and it just seemed like he had fallen far enough his situation and what we know of his talent he in fact became a mild value in the mid-3rd. I think Tomlinson's contribution to the Jets is going to decent, but still plenty of touches to go around there the way they run their offense. And they were confident enough letting Jones walk - perhaps arrogance on their part - but it says something to their belief in Greene.

 

As for the next pick, I had narrowed it to Steve Smith (Giants) and Mike Sims-Walker. Don't want to take the first TE, and also with all of Brady, Romo, Schaub, Favre still available, I was going to wait on QB. Three of the teams to my left (looking at the serpentine draft board) already have a QB. Happy to be convinced otherwise if you can manage it though

 

Agree.

 

The QB position can be nicely filled later, as can the TE spot....no need to jump on them with value at RB and WR still profound.

[Kitsnow 0]

Greene was a steal, I would consider McCoy over S.S. or M.S.W because there are people in the 5th like nicks I would be fine with getting. I'm feeling deeper at WR this year anyway. I like Benn, Tate, Demaryious the rookies this year. Horrible I know. But it seems they are getting starting chances greater then almost any year before.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Greene was a steal, I would consider McCoy over S.S. or M.S.W because there are people in the 5th like nicks I would be fine with getting. I'm feeling deeper at WR this year anyway. I like Benn, Tate, Demaryious the rookies this year. Horrible I know. But it seems they are getting starting chances greater then almost any year before.

 

Do you mean Maclin?

 

I know people are on Nicks' jock bigtime this year, and it isn't that I necessarily disagree. He looked really good last year for a rookie. I still think SS is much safer and will be the top target and reception leader on the Giants this season.

 

Plus, SS for a 4th vs. Nicks for a 5th, I probably still go SS. If Nicks was a 6th it would be a tougher call. Even still, I probably won't be in a position to take Nicks the next round. WR is the value play here and that sets me up to likely take QB/TE or TE/QB the next two rounds.

[RLLD 3,505]

Greene was a steal, I would consider McCoy over S.S. or M.S.W because there are people in the 5th like nicks I would be fine with getting. I'm feeling deeper at WR this year anyway. I like Benn, Tate, Demaryious the rookies this year. Horrible I know. But it seems they are getting starting chances greater then almost any year before.

 

I think you are right on the rook's, I see a host of opportunities for this years rookie class, and Tate is very intriguing, but then again, so is Hardesty as well....though he is much higher risk.

 

I think McCoy is being undervalued right now, but I do not expect that to prevail, and come August we are all going to be looking at him as an early second rounder at the very least, with him perhaps entering round 1 as drafts and preseason progresses.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

I don't really have much of an opinion on McCoy. He's got a great opportunity, no doubt.

 

For this particular draft and league format, 3 RB in the first 4 picks is a no-no.

[KSB2424 3,086]

If you just have to pass on LeSean, I would rank the remaining WR's as follows:

 

1. Crabtree

2. Nicks

3. Sims-Walker

.

.

6. Steve Smith (NYG)

 

However, first read my disclaimer below. You know more than me.

[kmbryant09 1]

 

FansFantasy go with Charles at 2.11? With Bree's, Manning and Rice still there? He already had CJ from round one.... Words defy me.....

 

As Mike pointed out, Brees, Rivers, Romo, Schaub, Brady still are on board, so there is tremendous value in drafting a QB in the 3rd-5th rounds. With Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles, he could have two top5 RB's, both of which catch a good amount of passes. Remember, this is the same Jamaal Charles who put up 968 rushing yards, 23 catches/160 receiving yards, and 8 TD's in the last 8 games last year...The team added Ryan Lilja, a solid run-blocking guard. I seriously doubt Thomas Jones is going to factor in HEAVILY into the mix. I'm sure he'll give 8-12 touches per game, but this won't be a 50/50 timeshare. NYJ decided to let Jones go because they realized Greene was the better/more talented/younger/fresher RB. The Chiefs will quickly figure the same thing out with Charles, who should get 20+ touches week in and week out.

 

1,300 rush yards, 400 receiving (45 catches), 13 TD's for Charles

[WhiteWonder 2,200]

pretty sure the expert mock is called the June Mock.

 

 

would have picked Marshall over Austin.

 

Romo in round 4 perhaps?

[KSB2424 3,086]

Thanks for keeping us in the loop, it's always fun to see how people who pay attention drafts pan out.

 

Whatever you do, do not listen to any of us.

[Kitsnow 0]

Hmm forgot about Crabtree. I like SF's offense this year more than Jacksonvilles.

 

Crabtree, Romo I'd go with before MSW. I don't like the Offense, the Double teams, and his injury record.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Well, the two I had pegged went just like that. I suppose I did control the second one.

 

KFFL took Steve Smith (Giants). I took Mike Sims-Walker.

 

4.05 WR Mike Sims-Walker, JAC

 

Sims-Walker had some clunkers last year, including a late season swoon and the infamous scratch Week 5 for missing curfew while he was playing Sleepless in Seattle. On the flipside when Walker was on, he performed great scoring a TD and/or exceeding 80 yards in 8 games. For a young, first year starter, Walker looked the part of an emerging fantasy WR1. The Jags are sure to continue their conservative offensive approach, but without much competition for catches either, Walker will still command the bulk of David Garrard's attention.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

pretty sure the expert mock is called the June Mock.

 

 

would have picked Marshall over Austin.

 

Romo in round 4 perhaps?

 

If you want to get technical, the official name is "FFToolbox - Experts Mock Draft (June) Draft"

 

No, I took Austin first ahead of Marshall. Think Marshall will be fine, but why risk the transition to a new team in case there are any bumps with him and Henne?

 

Too early for a QB. I like Romo and might even rank him next amongst the available QBs, but one of the ones I listed should, playing the odds, come back to me next round. Since I just made my 4th round pick, 7 teams pick before me again, but 3 already have a QB. It is possible all of the other 4 take a QB but I doubt it, and they may not even take my top 4.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Thanks for keeping us in the loop, it's always fun to see how people who pay attention drafts pan out.

 

Whatever you do, do not listen to any of us.

 

Ha. Don't agree with that.

 

I like Crabtree, but not as much as Walker for just this year. He could have a similar season to what Walker had last year. Flashes of brilliance, and games where he disappears.

[Chronic Husker 85]

You must have a plan for TE. 4th round would have been a great spot to grab Gates or Dallas Clark.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

I just took Chad Ochocinco in the 5th, but in doing that I'm really testing something else. I'll explain after it comes back to my pick in the 6th.

[KSB2424 3,086]

Austin, Sims-Walker, and 85 is a pretty stout WR core.

 

Ocho-Cinco had a great season last year. He was uber consistent. A lot of folks are down on him this year for some reason. Maybe becuase the last game they saw was when Revis shut him down. But Revis shuts everybody down. All the other games Chad was dynamite.

 

 

And no, Felix Jones will not be there for you in the 6th round.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Austin, Sims-Walker, and 85 is a pretty stout WR core.

 

Ocho-Cinco had a great season last year. He was uber consistent. A lot of folks are down on him this year for some reason. Maybe becuase the last game they saw was when Revis shut him down. But Revis shuts everybody down. All the other games Chad was dynamite.

 

 

And no, Felix Jones will not be there for you in the 6th round.

 

Thanks KSB. I am with you 100% on the last point. Felix was already drafted - 3.11 - way too early for my taste.

[PackYourNut 47]

Mike,

 

Update the image, so we can see who is being drafted.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Right, sorry. Just did it.

[Gepetto 997]

Nice. I have Sims-Walker and the Chad 85 at the end of the tier just ahead of Nicks and Crabtree. I actually have Steve Smith NYG after that (probably lower than he deserves but I'm biased and rank more explosive players higher when they're close).

 

I have Mendenhall as my 9th rated RB and Shonn Greene as my 10th in ppr, so I really like what you've done so far.

 

And based on your starting requirements, having filled your 2 RB and 3 WRs, if real good QB/TE can be had in the 6 and 7 rounds, I like that too.

[Mike FF Today 611]

I'm diggin' MM's team here. Two solid young running backs on what we're expecting to be run-first offenses and a solid 3-deep receiving corps after five rounds. I've got a guess as to who he's targeting in the 6th, but don't want to give away any secrets...

[Chronic Husker 85]

I've got a guess as to who he's targeting in the 6th, but don't want to give away any secrets...

It's a QB. I'm guessing Favre.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

It was Jermichael Finley. I had him all queued up to take in the 5th, had my commentary mostly written, and then realized, "Hey, this is a mock draft. Let's see if he lasts until the 6th round where he would be a super value." Didn't happen.

 

Still a couple more picks until my 6th now. I'll update again after that.

[Chronic Husker 85]

It was Jermichael Finley. I had him all queued up to take in the 5th, had my commentary mostly written, and then realized, "Hey, this is a mock draft. Let's see if he lasts until the 6th round where he would be a super value." Didn't happen.

 

Still a couple more picks until my 6th now. I'll update again after that.

So, I was wrong about Favre but right about you having a plan for TE!

 

Now that your plan is fuxored, let's see how you draft. The next few rounds will determine the success or failure of your draft.

[Kitsnow 0]

I can guess who will be next. If the pick before you isn't him, due to drop off at the position.

[Kitsnow 0]

Brent Celek!

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Brent Celek!

 

Brent Celek it is! I can wait another round for QB, because now even though I'm in the long turn, 6 of the 7 teams in this stretch already have a QB. I do have a drop-off at TE. Celek is 7th but still in the same tier (within 20 points) of #1. After Celek, another 15-30 point drop to a tier 2 of Winslow-Zach Miller-Carlson.

 

Here are my comments from the last two picks:

 

WR Chad Ochocinco, CIN

 

The drop-off is coming at WR, and while I don't see a return to Ochocinco's 90+ catch, 1,400 yard days, a more conservative 80-1,000-8 season is still very achievable and a welcome addition as my WR3. Sure, there have been some questions about his priorities recently directed from his QB, but after the antics and showboating this is one of the harder working players in the league. Oh, and he even appears to be on a solid all-around team all of a sudden. Chalk it up as a lower ceiling, but also higher floor pick, at a good price in the middle of the 5th round.

 

TE Brent Celek, PHI

 

Adding to my stable of young players who made a name for themselves last year and I expect the trend to continue, I give you Brent Celek. It was supposed to be Jermichael Finley, who I had queued up and commented on before I decided to test if he might actually last until this pick. Nice selection, Trader. Celek is a good consolation prize though, who hauled in almost 1,000 yards and 8 TD last year in 2009. Funny enough, Celek's two highest reception games came with Kevin Kolb at QB. Based on my numbers there is a drop-off at TE after the now top 7 are off the board. Short of nabbing a top 4 pick in the draft, I'm beginning to like this middle of the pack spot.

[remote controller 136]

Celek and Kolb being bestest buddies bodes very well for staedy production for you at TE, week in and week out!

[Kitsnow 0]

He's higher on ****** at QB but his next pick will be Kolb if ****** isn't there.

[Kitsnow 0]

Jay Cutler!

[Gepetto 997]

There's a running back available I would definitely take here.

 

Jerome Harrison

[Kitsnow 0]

There is one I would take too, but considering how many empty qb slots are between him if he wants cutler or kolb he has to take him now or just tough it. I also feel RB he has 3-4 ok options and one great one. Mostly it is a question of who you want in round 8. A lesser RB or lesser QB.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Jay Cutler!

 

Perhaps I should have this over to you Kitsnow since you know what I'm doing before I do

 

Who is the RB you guys are referring to? Bradshaw? He would be a good addition as a flex option, but felt QB was more important here.

 

It was between Cutler and Kolb. The Martz factor throws things in Cutler's favor for me, plus I diversify a little already leaning on Kolb to help Celek to a good year.

[Kitsnow 0]

Ricky Williams, currently the one leading the pack. doubt he'll make it around back. Jackson, Forsett, Bradshaw, Bush, Hightower. Harrison or Hardesty I prefer Hardesty though your projections have Harrison.

 

All can be serviceable though some have more potential than others. I'd probably pick the one I feel would be most stable as my 3rd back.