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beefy1

***Official College Football Wagering Thread*** 11/7

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I am trying to put together a solid night, and Dallas decided to sh!t the bed. I guess they don't want to win their first game of the year. Fockers. <_< :thumbsup:

 

I think most of the veterans on this board knows I'm one of the biggest Mavs homers and been giving them props since I've been on this board. That being said, I've never been more disappointed in this team ever. They are nowhere near the same team they were last year. I don't know if it's hangover or what, but they aren't showing any hunger. Right now is the time to go against Dallas as the lines will be low, IMO. They might pull off the win tonight, but I don't see it happening. I'd say whatever the line is going to be tomorrow night against Phoenix (I'm guessing around 5) I'd take the Suns and run. Next week is probably the time to load up on the Mavs as the line will be moving in their favor. They have to win sooner or later, but these next two nights won't be those nights.

 

Like I said, I hope I'm right about tonight, but as I watch this game in the 4th, I don't see it happening.

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Did anyone win some money tonight? I took a beating!

 

But, all of my NBA plays tonight ($5 per play) don't come to half of my bet on Louisville tomorrow night.

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Did anyone win some money tonight? I took a beating!

 

But, all of my NBA plays tonight ($5 per play) don't come to half of my bet on Louisville tomorrow night.

 

 

Going with UL to cover Ditka??

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Did anyone win some money tonight? I took a beating!

 

But, all of my NBA plays tonight ($5 per play) don't come to half of my bet on Louisville tomorrow night.

 

I know it's not a popular thing to do on this board, but I went against my favorite team tonight. I took the Clippers and didn't hesitate. If the line tomorrow night is 5 or under against Phoenix I'm loading up on the Suns. This Mavs team has zero confidence right now. None.

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I just saw the early line for the Mavs/Suns game tomorrow night and it's Suns -4.5. I'm going with the Suns even though they lost a tough overtime game tonight to the Spurs. Yes, they have to travel back home, but they want revenge from last year's playoff loss to the Mavs. Given the state of the Mavs pysche I look for the Suns to win by double digits.

 

And an early college hoops pick for the weekend.... take Arizona against Virginia. If I were to bet, I'd say Arizona will be favored by 2. The Hoos are opening up their new arena this weekend, but Arizona has a ton of talent and Chase Budinger is going to be an outstanding freshman.

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Alright, Alright Fellas....enough of the NBA talk on the CFB thread.....appreciated, but this is going to be tough to filter later.

 

Rutgers/Louisville tonight!

 

Rutgers currently seeing 12% of Public!!!!!!

Undefeated!

At Home!

Getting 6.5!

 

FADE THE PUBLIC as always.....

Someone tell me why in the world I should not roll HARD with Rutgers tonight!!!

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Alright, Alright Fellas....enough of the NBA talk on the CFB thread.....appreciated, but this is going to be tough to filter later.

 

Rutgers/Louisville tonight!

 

Rutgers currently seeing 12% of Public!!!!!!

Undefeated!

At Home!

Getting 6.5!

 

FADE THE PUBLIC as always.....

Someone tell me why in the world I should not roll HARD with Rutgers tonight!!!

I'm on Rutgers - week's worth of lunch money

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Where are you getting your percentages from? Just curious because I looked at covers.com and louisville is getting 56% of the bets. I would also like to know where to see the over/under percentages, bc someone said that the over was like 85%.

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I got too greedy last night. Stupid. Lost my discipline.

 

I swear, these football games the next two nights don't do much for me. Nothing looks all that great at first glance. I'll probably force a small play or two, but really, nothing looks all that interesting. Maybe it's the lines, maybe it's the matchup. :dunno:

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Where are you getting your percentages from? Just curious because I looked at covers.com and louisville is getting 56% of the bets. I would also like to know where to see the over/under percentages, bc someone said that the over was like 85%.

 

I check out Sports.com. They track betting trends in Vegas. Right now the % on the Over is 59% and the % on Louisville is listed as 87%.

 

Incidentally, Bodog now has Rutgers +7.5 (-115). By far the best line I have seen.

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I check out Sports.com. They track betting trends in Vegas. Right now the % on the Over is 59% and the % on Louisville is listed as 87%.

 

Incidentally, Bodog now has Rutgers +7.5 (-115). By far the best line I have seen.

 

Take it.

 

Rutgers does all the thnings you need to make sure you have a shot to win every game. They run the ball well, and are not dependent on just one guy to do so. They defend well, ranking among the nation's leaders in every defensive category (run, pass, total, scoring). They excel in the kicking game, with All American candidates at PK and punter. They have multiple big time playmakers on offense at RB & TE. Their weaknesses are in the passing game. Teel is inexperienced, and the young corps of WR has been inconsistent, with too many drops. They've beaten two 2005 bowl teams on the road (So Florida, Navy), Pitt (who will bowl this year), and have given up three TD in 4 home games against admittedly weak competition.

 

Louisville is a good football team, and Brohm is a great young QB. They have big, fast WR's. Their RB are servicable, the O-line is solid. Defensively they're ok. They never stopped the WVU running game; it stopped itself with turnovers and Slaton's injury. Their passing game can score fast and often. They've played two legitimate D1 teAms on the road and didn't look overly impressive (28-13 @ Syracuse, 24-6 @ Kan St). Their other two road opponents (Mid Tenn St & Temple) were stat padders.

 

Rutgers hasn't shown a tendency to turn the ball over like WVU did last week; they're also a top team in turnover margin. Louisville will get some big plays in the passing game, but Rutgers will be able to control the clock with Rice, Leonard and opportunistic passing. They can't afford to get into a position where they have to throw to keep up with L'Ville. Their best defense is their offense keeping Brohm on the sidelines.

 

Louisville won last week because they took advantage of a great home field advantage and some good fortune. I expect the Scarlet Knights to be able to do the same thing tonight. Take Rutgers and the points, in what I expect to be an outright RU win.

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Take it.

 

Rutgers does all the thnings you need to make sure you have a shot to win every game. They run the ball well, and are not dependent on just one guy to do so. They defend well, ranking among the nation's leaders in every defensive category (run, pass, total, scoring). They excel in the kicking game, with All American candidates at PK and punter. They have multiple big time playmakers on offense at RB & TE. Their weaknesses are in the passing game. Teel is inexperienced, and the young corps of WR has been inconsistent, with too many drops. They've beaten two 2005 bowl teams on the road (So Florida, Navy), Pitt (who will bowl this year), and have given up three TD in 4 home games against admittedly weak competition.

 

Louisville is a good football team, and Brohm is a great young QB. They have big, fast WR's. Their RB are servicable, the O-line is solid. Defensively they're ok. They never stopped the WVU running game; it stopped itself with turnovers and Slaton's injury. Their passing game can score fast and often. They've played two legitimate D1 teAms on the road and didn't look overly impressive (28-13 @ Syracuse, 24-6 @ Kan St). Their other two road opponents (Mid Tenn St & Temple) were stat padders.

 

Rutgers hasn't shown a tendency to turn the ball over like WVU did last week; they're also a top team in turnover margin. Louisville will get some big plays in the passing game, but Rutgers will be able to control the clock with Rice, Leonard and opportunistic passing. They can't afford to get into a position where they have to throw to keep up with L'Ville. Their best defense is their offense keeping Brohm on the sidelines.

 

Louisville won last week because they took advantage of a great home field advantage and some good fortune. I expect the Scarlet Knights to be able to do the same thing tonight. Take Rutgers and the points, in what I expect to be an outright RU win.

 

JT - Well put. I am on Rutgers as well. Also like the under, although it has been bet down to 51.5 from the opening # of 55. This game could come down to special teams, which is one of Rutgers' strengths; not to say that Lville is bad in that area either.

 

I think the home field will be a factor and the fact that Schiano has had 5 extra days to prepare.

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I do not think tonights game will be close. I think Louisville will come out and blow out Rutgers. Rutgers is having a really good season and deserves some credit for that. But the program has not had national spotlight like this and normally that means some sh!t will roll down their legs. Louisville should have much of a hangover from West Virginia since they know that work is still out there for national title game hopes.

 

After the performance the Cards put on against West Virginia I don't see how anyone can bet against them.

 

I got Louisville -6.5 for 8 units.

 

Take it.

 

Rutgers does all the thnings you need to make sure you have a shot to win every game. They run the ball well, and are not dependent on just one guy to do so. They defend well, ranking among the nation's leaders in every defensive category (run, pass, total, scoring). They excel in the kicking game, with All American candidates at PK and punter. They have multiple big time playmakers on offense at RB & TE. Their weaknesses are in the passing game. Teel is inexperienced, and the young corps of WR has been inconsistent, with too many drops. They've beaten two 2005 bowl teams on the road (So Florida, Navy), Pitt (who will bowl this year), and have given up three TD in 4 home games against admittedly weak competition.

 

Louisville is a good football team, and Brohm is a great young QB. They have big, fast WR's. Their RB are servicable, the O-line is solid. Defensively they're ok. They never stopped the WVU running game; it stopped itself with turnovers and Slaton's injury. Their passing game can score fast and often. They've played two legitimate D1 teAms on the road and didn't look overly impressive (28-13 @ Syracuse, 24-6 @ Kan St). Their other two road opponents (Mid Tenn St & Temple) were stat padders.

 

Rutgers hasn't shown a tendency to turn the ball over like WVU did last week; they're also a top team in turnover margin. Louisville will get some big plays in the passing game, but Rutgers will be able to control the clock with Rice, Leonard and opportunistic passing. They can't afford to get into a position where they have to throw to keep up with L'Ville. Their best defense is their offense keeping Brohm on the sidelines.

 

Louisville won last week because they took advantage of a great home field advantage and some good fortune. I expect the Scarlet Knights to be able to do the same thing tonight. Take Rutgers and the points, in what I expect to be an outright RU win.

Not so fast my friend. You should throw out a few Louisville games because they lost Bush and Brohm and had to adjust. Given that they still went on the road and won.

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Hey Ditka. When do you plan on having your weekend college picks available for posting? I have been losing money the last couple weeks "on my own". Needless to say, I suck at this with the exception of a few plays here and there.

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My .02

 

Theres no chance I would take Louisville aside from the points Philly made above. Huge emotional win last week for Louisville now going on the road to a team that plays great D and runs the ball well, thats a recipe for a close game or even a loss. Also, keep in mind that if Slaton doesnt fumble that ball in the red zone and Louisville didnt get that kick return for a TD, they could have lost the game outright or at the very least they may have only won by a field goal!

 

No need to put a ton of stock into what I am saying...but my play is Rutgers without question. Im hoping the line gets to +7, or I may just buy the half a point since the line is at 6.5 right now...

 

Good Luck!! ;)

 

 

Heres my story and im stickin to it. The line thankfully got to +7, now im buying the half a point to get +7.5! Feelin good about it....excited to see the outcome....

 

Good Luck!! :banana:

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I'm gonna play Louisville for a unit. Rutgers hasn't played anybody yet and I can see Louisville handing it to them like they did last year.

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Yo Fellas,

 

Someone asked why anyone wouldn't take Rutgers and the points.

 

Here's my main reason. 56-5. Thats last seasons score. Sorry but you don't get throttled like that one year and come back and win the next. I like the way Rutgers plays and what their team is built on... but... I don't think they have enough to hang with L'ville. I'll take the better team all day.

 

 

Better still. I'm all over BYU tonight. They are my Utah of a couple years ago. They are a cover machine. Averaging 46.5 per game and giving up only 10. Wyoming doesn't have much a chance.

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Yo Fellas,

 

Someone asked why anyone wouldn't take Rutgers and the points.

 

Here's my main reason. 56-5. Thats last seasons score. Sorry but you don't get throttled like that one year and come back and win the next. I like the way Rutgers plays and what their team is built on... but... I don't think they have enough to hang with L'ville. I'll take the better team all day.

Better still. I'm all over BYU tonight. They are my Utah of a couple years ago. They are a cover machine. Averaging 46.5 per game and giving up only 10. Wyoming doesn't have much a chance.

 

Geez, look who emerged from the dead? Welcome back OGAR!

 

I might put a few bucks on the BYU team over when I get home (anyone have this line handy?) As of now, I only have L'ville-Rutgers Under 52 (-120). Definitely nervous, especially considering how totals have treated me mid-week. But it's the bet I'm most confident in given the two teams, and it's also the easiest to hedge in live in-game betting (even with a scoring barrage, a slight lull can get the total back to 52).

 

Good luck to all!

 

:banana:

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Yo Fellas,

 

Someone asked why anyone wouldn't take Rutgers and the points.

 

Here's my main reason. 56-5. Thats last seasons score. Sorry but you don't get throttled like that one year and come back and win the next. I like the way Rutgers plays and what their team is built on... but... I don't think they have enough to hang with L'ville. I'll take the better team all day.

Better still. I'm all over BYU tonight. They are my Utah of a couple years ago. They are a cover machine. Averaging 46.5 per game and giving up only 10. Wyoming doesn't have much a chance.

 

BYU is a great pick. They have been overlooked this year by the media. I'm hoping it stays that way through their bowl game.

 

I understand your take on last year's L'vl-RU matchup, but I think Rutgers is vastly improved on both sides of the ball, while L'ville is not nearly as good defensively. If Bush were healthy I'm sure I'd be going the other way, but I think the Cards are going to be one-dimensional tonight. It's a heck of a dimension, but I like Rutger's balance on both sides of the ball. We'll see tonight.

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BYU is a great pick. They have been overlooked this year by the media. I'm hoping it stays that way through their bowl game.

 

I understand your take on last year's L'vl-RU matchup, but I think Rutgers is vastly improved on both sides of the ball, while L'ville is not nearly as good defensively. If Bush were healthy I'm sure I'd be going the other way, but I think the Cards are going to be one-dimensional tonight. It's a heck of a dimension, but I like Rutger's balance on both sides of the ball. We'll see tonight.

 

Louisville homer here. Sure, I'm concerned about this Rutgers team. Brian Brohm was hurt in the Miami game, was out for two games and then came back for SYR and CIN, before his thumb was healed. He is clearly 100% now. Louisville's DEF is NOT worse this year, its better. WVU made UL look bad, but RU's run offense is just the kind that UofL does well defending.

 

See some UofL offensive highlights below from the WVU game. They can run and pass. They are not one-dimensional. UofL by 17 tonight. Bank it.

 

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3...16935&hl=en

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Hate to give so many points, but I may go with what you guys are saying with BYU -18.

 

Thinking about playing Louisville/BYU

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Hey Ditka. When do you plan on having your weekend college picks available for posting? I have been losing money the last couple weeks "on my own". Needless to say, I suck at this with the exception of a few plays here and there.

Friday

 

Yo Fellas,

 

Someone asked why anyone wouldn't take Rutgers and the points.

 

Here's my main reason. 56-5. Thats last seasons score. Sorry but you don't get throttled like that one year and come back and win the next. I like the way Rutgers plays and what their team is built on... but... I don't think they have enough to hang with L'ville. I'll take the better team all day.

Better still. I'm all over BYU tonight. They are my Utah of a couple years ago. They are a cover machine. Averaging 46.5 per game and giving up only 10. Wyoming doesn't have much a chance.

Who asked you?

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I love all of the stats, probabilities, trends, strengths, weaknesses, weather forecasts that we share on this board as a team, to me it is such fun stuff. I also like that we have a fairly even sided board here on tonights game so at least some of us can win. Having said that im going to spew my .02 prediction about tonights game....

 

Throw all stats out the window on this one I think, it comes down to who wants it more, and heres what I see. A "fly under the radar" home team begging for respect. The analysts i've heard talk about this game say that even with a Rutgers win and a sweep of the board for the rest of the season they wont get a shot at the National Title....I agree, im sure most of you do as well for fairly obvious reasons (Schedule, Program credibility).

 

I will be the first to come back and chow down on that crow if mistaken.....I think UL runs into a buzzsaw tonight...

 

Good Luck!! :blink:

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Friday

Who asked you?

 

 

 

I'm Rick James- B!tch!!!

 

I love all of the stats, probabilities, trends, strengths, weaknesses, weather forecasts that we share on this board as a team, to me it is such fun stuff. I also like that we have a fairly even sided board here on tonights game so at least some of us can win. Having said that im going to spew my .02 prediction about tonights game....

 

Throw all stats out the window on this one I think, it comes down to who wants it more, and heres what I see. A "fly under the radar" home team begging for respect. The analysts i've heard talk about this game say that even with a Rutgers win and a sweep of the board for the rest of the season they wont get a shot at the National Title....I agree, im sure most of you do as well for fairly obvious reasons (Schedule, Program credibility).

 

I will be the first to come back and chow down on that crow if mistaken.....I think UL runs into a buzzsaw tonight...

 

Good Luck!! :blink:

 

 

 

Almost seems like tonight is Rutgers National Championship. I'm sure the Campus is crazy. I'm sure they'll play with a ton of emotion.

 

I'll most likely lay the lumber on BYU and make a small play on L'ville for kicks. Still I'd like Rutgers to win.

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I think that I am taking all three dogs tonight, for 1 unit each. I'll try to do a writeup in a little while.

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OGAR's back, p00h's back (although born-again). Where the heck is Bouve?

 

Long time reader, seldom poster. My handle pays homage to the days of GiantsRule and Bouve going toe-to-toe over how many points the Dolphins will win by. It's to bad the demands of high school have limited Bouve's opportunity to post his picks.

 

For what it's worth, I think Louisville wins and covers tonight. Talent mismatch with Louisville having too much to gain with a convincing win. Rutgers is a nice little story but it ends tonight.

 

I may be the most tenured rookie on the board...........YES!!

 

- BR

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Not so fast my friend. You should throw out a few Louisville games because they lost Bush and Brohm and had to adjust. Given that they still went on the road and won.

 

Brohm did play at Syracuse and in the 23-17 home win over Cincy prior to the West Va game. But ultimately, a win is a win.

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Changed my mind, gonna play Louisville and Akron both giving points. Playing Akron based on some information I read.

 

What is the information that you read? Spill it. :D

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Overall College YTD: 198-168-4; +35.97 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 94-69; +48.72 units

CFL: 21-13; +15.95 units

Overall NBA: 20-17-1; +2.75 units

NCAA baskets: 1-0; +1.0 units

NHL: 3-4; -3.0 units

NFL (Reset, last two weeks): 22-20-1; +.75 units

 

Thursday

 

NCAA Basketball

 

St Bonaventure (-3.5) for 1 unit LOSER

Alcorn St (+28.5) for 1 unit LOSER

 

NHL

 

Under TB/Pitt (6)@105 for 1 unit LOSER

Dallas (-1.5)@+165 for 1 unit LOSER

Columbus M/L@+115 for 1 unit WINNER

 

NBA

 

Golden St 1st H (-1) for 2 units PUSH

Golden St (-1.5) for 2 units WINNER!!

Gold St 2nd H (-1) for 3 units WINNER!!!!!

Phoenix 2nd H for 3 units LOSER!!!!!

 

NCAA Football

 

Buffalo (+17.5) for 1 unit WINNER

Rutgers (+6.5) for 2 units WINNER!!

Wyoming(+17.5) for 2 units LOSER!!

Wyoming (+7) 2nd H for 3 units LOSER!!!!!

 

Parlay 2 units to win 12.0 units:

Central Mich (-6)

UTEP (+2)

Gold St (-1) 2nd H WINNER

Busy day at work, so I will give some quick thoughts. Sorry. Can’t do long writeups tonight, but they are small plays, as of now. Who knows? I might upgrade when I get home from work. Since Louisville and Rutgers has been discussed, I will focus on the other two games.

 

Much like taking Air Force over Army last week, because I hated that Army team, I really hate this underachieving Akron team. They entered this year as the defending MAC champions, had a decent core of players back including QB Luke Getsy, and were expected to challenge for the MAC title again this year. They even upset NC St on the road the second game of the year. But they have been wildly inconsistent, their defense has been much worse than last year. They are 4-5, and need to win two games. But since they play Ohio U and West Mich in their last two games, I suspect Akron realizes that they are cooked, and their season is officially dead. Meanwhile Buffalo is a back door kind of team, trying hard in every game, and moving the ball up and down the field in second halves of games. They would have more points in the first halves of games, but they have had some issues with turnovers. Last week, they ended a 7 games losing streak by forcing 5 Kent turnovers in a stunning blow out win, and they certainly enter this game with more momentum, as Akron blew a double digit lead late to Bowling Green, fresh off a loss to Temple, and BG had a chance to tie the game as time ran out. Buffalo has covered their first four games, then played up and down based on turnovers. They had a couple of blow out losses mixed in to Ball St, Ohio U, and Boston College. Make no mistake, Buffalo could lose this game by 50. But they could also win this game outright. This is the first national TV game for Buffalo in some time, and they will have more enthusiasm, despite having less talent. Will it be enough? I have been fading Akron for weeks now. I’ll do it again.

 

Wyoming has one of the best defenses in the nation, but their offense has let them down for the most part. After pounding Utah St at the start of the season, they dropped 4 in a row vs solid teams in Virginia, Boise St, Air Force, and Syracuse, outgaining all but Air Force, losing to Virg and Syracuse on the road in OT; just a series of bad luck. They have reeled off 4 wins in their last 5 games, and come into this game needing to win, as they are only 5-5 on the season, and need 2 wins to get bowl eligible. 6-6 probably won’t be good enough. BYU has covered or pushed every spread so far this year, and are asked to cover ridiculously inflated numbers. There is no doubt that BYU is a very good team that could be undefeated right now if not for losses in the final minutes to Arizona and in OT to Boston College. I have been on BYU bandwagon at times this year, but went against them last week without success as they covered the 15 points vs Colorado St. But BYU simply cannot blow out every single team and cover every single week. We saw this same exact thing with Central Mich last week, as they failed to cover a big line vs Temple. The last few meeting vs Wyoming, BYU has won by 11 and 14 points. Now, they have to cover an extra TD tonight. I can’t see Wyoming’s defense being shredded like that. Wyoming has lost only one game this year by more than 7 points, against TCU, in a game they repeatedly blew chances in the red zone. Wyoming to stay within single digits.

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Hard to argue with mid-week under play. I have to believe that Rutgers will come out extremely conservative tonight and try to keep Louisville off the field. Ball control and decent defense = Under.

 

That being said, betting 'Unders' takes all the fun out of the game for me. Cheering for punts and cringing when guys run out of bounds is no way to watch a game this big. That's my 2 cents.

 

I'm playing Louisville with confidence and staying away from the total.

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Why did the line in the Rutgers game drop so much?

 

 

I can get Lou at -6 right now

 

Anyone else taking Buffalo at +17.5?

 

Ahh i see the post above philly has buff also

Straight Wager 11/09/06 15:44 ET

5.00/4.55 Result: Pending

BuffaloU

Akron 11/09/06 (18:05 ET)

BuffaloU +17.5

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Predict tonights score everyone and let's see who comes the closest tomorrow. Since we all have been living in this thread every week.

 

Louisville- 36

Rutgers- 17

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Why did the line in the Rutgers game drop so much?

 

A buddy of mine just emailed me and said Dr Bob is on Rutgers. And the line is in motion again.

 

Fock. Last night, my line was +6.5. Now, I'll be lucky to get +4 or so, I would imagine.

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phillybear, who are some of the respectable cappers on covers.com? if you dont mind could you list a couple off the top of your head?

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A buddy of mine just emailed me and said Dr Bob is on Rutgers. And the line is in motion again.

 

Fock. Last night, my line was +6.5. Now, I'll be lucky to get +4 or so, I would imagine.

If Doctor Knob is on Rutgers than my money is bet in the right place, with Louisville. I am still waiting for him to come here and post with the big boys!

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