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Feel like I got cheated or learned a lesson..

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Well it was my first year playing and I came on here asking questions. I played in a league where passing tds were 6 points and basically everyone said its all relative so dont draft the qbs any higher. Well I sat back and watched the teams with arod,rivers,brady,vick,ect..dominate..I dont no if i was unlucky or what but next year I will definatly target a top qb sooner.

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Well it was my first year playing and I came on here asking questions. I played in a league where passing tds were 6 points and basically everyone said its all relative so dont draft the qbs any higher. Well I sat back and watched the teams with arod,rivers,brady,vick,ect..dominate..I dont no if i was unlucky or what but next year I will definatly target a top qb sooner.

 

The top QB's coming into the season were Rodgers, Rivers, Brees, Manning, Brady.

 

Vick wasn't even on the list.

 

Feel free to chase the top QB early, but there are different ways to pull together a solid team.

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The top QB's coming into the season were Rodgers, Rivers, Brees, Manning, Brady.

 

Vick wasn't even on the list.

 

Feel free to chase the top QB early, but there are different ways to pull together a solid team.

 

 

 

I agree now that I have played a full season...So you are still saying even with 6 points a td to sit tight and scoop one later?

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I agree now that I have played a full season...So you are still saying even with 6 points a td to sit tight and scoop one later?

That's all relative to your draft position, who's available, and your opponents already picked players.

Unfortunately, FF is not a science.

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I agree now that I have played a full season...So you are still saying even with 6 points a td to sit tight and scoop one later?

 

I play in several leagues that have 6 points for QB TD's. It makes the total points higher for QB's so that they are usually the highest scorers. However, you want to base your choices on the difference between players of the same position and not across positions.

 

Whether you choose a QB early should not be based on just choosing the position, but it should be based on the value of the player at that spot. Let's say that there is a run on QB's early in the draft and you are going to get a QB who is still going to be there in a later round, then you skip him and go for a higher value at a different position. You want to be at the beginning of a run on players and not at the end.

 

The key is that you are building a team that gives you the most points and not just getting the most points at one position.

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Well it was my first year playing and I came on here asking questions. I played in a league where passing tds were 6 points and basically everyone said its all relative so dont draft the qbs any higher. Well I sat back and watched the teams with arod,rivers,brady,vick,ect..dominate..I dont no if i was unlucky or what but next year I will definatly target a top qb sooner.

 

My league gives 6 pts. for pass TDs, and I still never draft a QB before the 5th or 6th round -- after I at least have 2 starting RBs and two starting WRs. I'm about to wrap up the championship tonight, and I started the season with Kolb as my QB, and then picked up Orton when he got hurt. Rode Orton all the way until the semifinal game (Week 15), when I picked up Kerry Collins for his matchup against the Texans. And played the matchup with Grossman this week in the finals. That didn't work out as well, but good enough to keep me in the game.

 

There's certainly nothing wrong with targeting one of the top QBs in the draft. But I'd rather spend the first 5-6 rounds loading up on other positions and then roll with Sam Bradford or similar at QB.

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I play in a 6-TD league. Last year I did what you did and ended up playing QB shuffle all year and just missed the playoffs. This year in the 7-spot I decided I didn't like the skill players available so I went for Rodgers as the first QB off the board. I wanted to minimize my chances of getting a first-round bust and it worked out well. Also TBH I was tired of playing musical chairs with my QB and just wanted a guy I could set and forget.

 

I ended up winning it all with Rodgers' monster game last week. But really, it can work both ways, the guy I played in the championship game basically waited and took 3 QBs in the flyer rounds, and made the QB shuffle work well enough to get to the championship game. Sadly, he started Kitna and his fate was sealed. :cheers:

 

As others have said, the one thing you can't do is jump in on the end of a run.

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top qbs score 30-40 tds a year, top rbs less than half of that, so even in a less than 6 pts/passing td, qbs will score higher...

 

I've run some analysis of this year, and here's what I found...

 

 

Based on ADP, the top ranked qbs produced far more consistently than the top ranked rbs...

 

QBS:

 

top tier qbs were basically Rodgers, Brees, Peyton, Brady, Schaub and Rivers. With Romo on the 2nd tier. Outside of Schaub, the rest of the guys grouped pretty damn tightly...

 

Here's what I have in my 6 pts for all tds and 1 pt/50 yards passing, 1 pt/20 yards receiving, no fractions...

 

 

Player 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Avg Total

Brees, Drew QB NO 10 17 27 11 17 23 21 20 17 0 33 15 20 22 23 14 19.3 290

Brady, Tom QB NE 23 16 23 9 0 11 9 10 16 33 15 32 32 21 15 20 19 285

Manning, Peyton QB IND 30 23 26 21 4 20 0 17 11 3 33 17 21 20 16 22 18.9 284

Rodgers, Aaron QB GB 15 24 21 22 12 20 17 3 25 0 33 22 24 1 0 37 19.7 276

Rivers, Philip QB SD 17 26 27 16 24 10 14 20 29 0 28 3 11 16 23 11 18.3 275

 

 

now lets look at RBS:

 

Here are the top scorers:

 

 

Player 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Avg Total

Foster, Arian RB HOU 31 6 7 21 1 16 0 15 22 8 18 11 17 7 2 12 12.9 194

Hillis, Peyton RB CLE 9 8 15 12 9 4 9 0 23 11 12 28 3 6 3 1 10.2 153

Peterson, Adrian RB MIN 4 16 22 0 5 9 15 12 19 3 3 8 24 1 0 0 10.8 141

Johnson, Chris RB TEN 20 1 19 2 19 13 3 9 0 12 7 0 2 15 13 2 9.1 137

McFadden, Darren RB OAK 12 8 12 6 0 0 34 7 5 0 0 3 11 29 7 3 10.5 137

Turner, Michael RB ATL 2 3 12 3 8 2 20 0 18 1 13 12 10 24 4 2 8.9 134

McCoy, LeSean RB PHI 9 25 2 9 12 4 4 0 4 10 13 5 18 8 3 0 9 126

Mendenhall, Rashard RB PIT 13 3 14 15 0 10 1 9 11 2 8 14 2 3 12 9 8.4 126

Charles, Jamaal RB KC 10 3 6 0 4 5 9 12 4 12 5 15 7 2 14 17 8.3 125

 

 

Of those, only 3 were 1st rounders, 4 if you consider mendy, and the top 2 were off the charts as far as drafting early is concerned...

 

 

The receivers are a bit more consistent, with a majority of the 2nd/3rd rounders paying off, however guys like reggie wayne and andre johnson didn't quite pay their ADP, and Randy Moss is not worth mentioning here because of external circumstances...

 

 

What does this say??? It actually says that grabbing a qb early on will give you consistency! Now if you have the chance to grab rbs that have CONSISTENTLY proven their worth, you grab them. ADP and MJD fall into that category. CJ is kinda getting there. SJAX used to be there, and kinda is still. But what did grabbing 1 year wonder Rice do for most teams. Gore? Deangelo??? 0 year wonder Ryan matthews??? 1/4 year wonder Shonn greene??? Ced benson??? Ryan Grant??? ronnie brown??? Addai???

 

Point being, it's not bad to grab a qb early. Because even based on relativity within each position, which is a model I subscribe to, QB bunching at the top is a lot more consistent, and has a significant falloff after a certain number. And there just aren't as many Vick's popping up every year as there are the Fosters, or the Hillis', or the bradshaws.

 

And receivers there are even more unknowns that pop up every year to have solid years, like stevie johnson, and nicks, and mike williams, and maclin...

 

People also have this belief that waiting on a TE IS THE MOVE! Same people believe that waiting on a qb is the move. Both are wrong IMO. I always grab one of the top tier TEs early. Just take a look at this year. If clark would have stayed healthy, the gap between him/gates and the rest of the field would validate a 2nd round pick on either! That's right 2nd round. Gates in the 3rd was the best pick of my draft this year, and that includes grabbing foster in all 3 of my leagues...

 

So before you go about ignorantly following the rb-rb-wr-qb-wr-te or whatever other rigid system you're stuck on, analyze the numbers. Year after year, there is consistency in qbs(granted they stay healthy) and year after year rbs that went nuts the year past go in the early 1st round only to fizzle out. Do you think it's feasible that foster is a shell of himself next year??? The odds are far greater than brees or brady or manning shittin the bed, thats for sure...

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League 1: Went WR WR WR WR based on value at the pick and didn't draft a QB until the 9th round (start 3 WR and a RB/WR Flex). Destroyed the league.

 

League 2: RB WR WR WR with a QB in the 8th. Destroyed the league

 

League 3: WR at 11 and then Peyton with the 14th pick. Came in 6th out of 12.

 

 

I very rarely take a QB early and I always seem to do well. You will almost always have a few QBs that are the 13th-20th QBs picked that finish top 10. It's about identifying what players are going to give you value at the position. You say you see teams with the good QBs destroying week after week but I almost guarantee if you post their rosters, it's the value at other positions (Foster, White, Bowe, McCoy, Bradshaw) that carried the team.

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So before you go about ignorantly following the rb-rb-wr-qb-wr-te or whatever other rigid system you're stuck on, analyze the numbers. Year after year, there is consistency in qbs(granted they stay healthy) and year after year rbs that went nuts the year past go in the early 1st round only to fizzle out. Do you think it's feasible that foster is a shell of himself next year??? The odds are far greater than brees or brady or manning shittin the bed, thats for sure...

 

Nice numbers, and I see what you're saying, but you're not taking into account the roster factor. Thing is, most leagues require you to start at least 2 RBs and 2 WRs, plus some combination of WR/RB Flex spots every week. While most leagues only require you to start 1 QB with no QB option at flex.

 

Obviously, some leagues are different, but in standard formats, you have to have at least 3-4 starter-quality WRs and 2-3 starter-quality RBs on your roster just to compete. And you only need 1 starter-quality QB. Point being, there are more likely to be serviceable QBs later in the draft -- the Josh Freemans of the world. Just because teams don't need to draft multiple QBs. That's why it generally makes sense to load up on RBs and WRs early, but it's certainly not a hard-and-fast rule if Rodgers somehow falls in your lap at the 11th pick or whatever.

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Using standard scoring (25 yards passing, 10 yards rushing) with 6 point TD's and -2 interceptions...here are the QB rankings on a per game basis:

 

1. Michael Vick- 29.95

2. Aaron Rodgers- 24.80

3. Tom Brady- 23.54

4. Philip Rivers- 22.47

5. Peyton Manning- 22.08

6. Drew Brees- 21.78

7. Ben Roethlisberger- 20.36

8. Matt Cassel- 20.32

9. Kyle Orton- 19.84

10. David Garrard- 19.66

11. Ryan Fitzpatrick- 19.32

12. Josh Freeman- 19.28

13. Matt Ryan- 19.22

14. Eli Manning- 19.22

15. Joe Flacco- 19.08

 

That's FIFTEEN QB's that averaged at least 19 fantasy points per game, and doesn't even include Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler, or Tony Romo who were drafted as top 10 QB's this season. Vick is obviously the outlier. But he was undrafted in every league. Even if you took Peyton Manning or Drew Brees in the 1st or 2nd round, you only gained 1-2 points per week on guys like Orton, Garrard, Fitzpatrick, Freeman, etc. These guys were undrafted or late round selections in most leagues. While the top guys may be more predictable, I just don't think the advantage you gain by drafting a QB early is enough VALUE. I think you can find greater value on a first or second round RB or WR. Just my opinion. If I played matchups correctly with any 2 of the guys ranked 10-15th on that list, I probably could of improved my per game output enough to equal a Manning or Brees. Heck, I just won a championship with Jon Kitna as my QB, and I used Eli Manning most of the year, a guy I got in the 10th round.

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Well it was my first year playing and I came on here asking questions. I played in a league where passing tds were 6 points and basically everyone said its all relative so dont draft the qbs any higher. Well I sat back and watched the teams with arod,rivers,brady,vick,ect..dominate..I dont no if i was unlucky or what but next year I will definatly target a top qb sooner.

 

I was the last one to draft a qb in my league and I just won the championship. The thing is that if you wait then you are going to get first crack at the waiver wire qbs. If someone drafts manning, brady, brees, or rodgers then they are unlikely to take a flier on a Vick like I did.

 

A couple of years ago I ended up with Rodgers in his break out season and Warner in his super bowl season and I waited very late to take a qb. There are sure to be new breakout QB's next year available on the waiver wire and most of the other players in your league will already be set at QB depending on the size of the league. I am in a 10 team league so most of the other guys already are set at QB making it easy for me to take a chance on waiver wire qb's because they ignore them.

 

I ended up drafting Kolb and Eli Manning late and picking up Vick when Kolb got dinged up in week 1. Rivers is another QB who was not going very high in most drafts who produced well.

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I think, as others have said here, you can build a team many ways. Even if QB is going to greatly outscore any other position, you can still find a gem late and build a solid team. However you've got to be pretty confident you can get a good QB late and that means being prepared with your player ratings.

 

In our first round, Rogers, Rivers, Brady, Manning, and Brees were all taken. As I had the last pick of 12 in that round I could have selected a lower tier QB or started building my other skill positions. I opted to pass on the next tier of QB's, knowing that any of the next 4 or 5 would be roughly equal and now that only 7 other teams needed QB's I was likely to get one of the one's I had targeted later in the draft. Wound up with Matt Ryan in the 5th round and was able to build a team that made it to the final game.

 

However if I could have selected any of those top 5 QB's in the first round I would have. It mitigates a lot of risk by locking down the highest scoring position with a player who is highly likely to be a top 5 scorer at that position.

 

So it doesn't really change how you draft that dramatically. As others have said, you don't want to chase a position. You need to be cognizant of your player tiers by position, and how many teams still need to draft a player from that position and you can pretty quickly gauge when you need to select a player at that position. If I had chased a QB in the first round I'd have probably wound up with Romo, however I felt that there wasn't enough difference in Romo and Ryan to justify going up 4 rounds to get a QB.

 

Now if only I hadn't used that first round pick on Randy Moss....

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I waited to draft a QB this year because I got burned by Peyton Manning sitting out the second half of Week 16 last year (in our Superbowl!).

 

I ended up drafting Orton and then Roethlisberger. The other guys in my league gave me a hard time about my QB "weakness". Orton was great early on and I managed to pick up Vick in Week 2, so I had three top tier QBs by Week 6 when Big Ben finally hit the field.

 

Instead of trading any of them I held them so that nobody else in the league would have them.

 

I also got ripped for my weak WR draft: Bowe, Wallace, and Owens (Roddy White, they said, was my only sure-fire WR). And I got ripped for drafting Arian Foster in Round 3 (Way too early, they told me...) But that was my plan with the 3rd pick - RB, WR, RB (MJD, White, Foster)

 

The "sure-fire" players are not the only guys scoring points. You just need a plan going into your draft.

 

There is value all over the board, but you have to find it.

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Well it was my first year playing [...]

 

And you want sympathy from some grizzled vets? Lesson learned, youngsta!

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Nice numbers, and I see what you're saying, but you're not taking into account the roster factor. Thing is, most leagues require you to start at least 2 RBs and 2 WRs, plus some combination of WR/RB Flex spots every week. While most leagues only require you to start 1 QB with no QB option at flex.

 

Obviously, some leagues are different, but in standard formats, you have to have at least 3-4 starter-quality WRs and 2-3 starter-quality RBs on your roster just to compete. And you only need 1 starter-quality QB. Point being, there are more likely to be serviceable QBs later in the draft -- the Josh Freemans of the world. Just because teams don't need to draft multiple QBs. That's why it generally makes sense to load up on RBs and WRs early, but it's certainly not a hard-and-fast rule if Rodgers somehow falls in your lap at the 11th pick or whatever.

 

 

fully agree. There are other variables involved as well, as far as what kind of runs are happening, what you already have on your roster, etc. Only point my analysis makes, and it is consistent every year, is that top qbs are consistent. Top rbs not so much. So its not just a case of, 'I got rogers so my team is gonna be steady!' It's a combo of 'I got rogers, and also avoided Ray Rice, or Ryan matthews, or Frank Gore' Thats why I also say that IF you can grab a PROVEN COMMODITY RB in the first, go with that. Guys that blindly grab the next best available rb on the board will consistently fare worse than people that don't get stuck on the RB-RB-WR-WR-QB or whatever rigid system they stick to...

 

 

Also, points like this are always thrown around this board and others: 'there are always servicable......later in the draft'

 

Same applies for qbs, rbs, wrs, and any other position. Foster and Hillis this year are prime examples of not just servicable, but more than. I think that is a fairly illogical perspective though. For example with qbs, sure freeman was servicable, but for every freeman that is servicable, there are the mcnabbs, and hennes and vys and alex smiths. Sure many people will be able to weed out 3 out of those 5 and then have a 50-50 chance of the guy they grabbed being servicable, however there's no guarantee you're going to hit that one. It is a crap shoot to a certain extent. And that applies for any position, not just qb, but again brings up back to the point of consistency. If you ran up on 1.05 this year, you had choice of Rice, Turner AJ o4 Gore, depending on who went at 1.04. Assuming you went rice there, you got royally screwed with your 1st rounder. If you went Gore you did as well. IF you went Turner you kinda got your money's worth, but in a very inconsistent, feast or famine, way. Either way, you have a 25% hitrate for consistent stud performance there, regardless of who you chose. And there were zero people in all the world that took a foster or hillis there, so we can assume you're locked into one of those 4 there in standard scoring format. Not look at a rogers, or a brees. You know what you're getting there. Consistent STUD production. Not consistent freeman production, consistent, 'top 5 overall prodution in the league year after year' production. So something to think about.

 

I'll give you an example. In my very qb heavy league, where 6 of top 12 picks are qbs every year, I took brees at 1.04. first qb off the board behind the top 3 rbs. I then proceeded to go wayne/jennings rounds 2 and 3. Ended up with mccoy in the 4th, foster in the 5th, and bradshaw in the 6th, with hillis in like the 14th. Now I'm not making the point to pat myself on the back, and I most certainly didn't expect the production out of foster or hillis that they've produced. The only point I'm trying to make is that even though you need 2rbs to start, and they are at a mich greater premium than all other positions, you can end up with solid rbs even if you bypass them the first 3 rounds. And in doing so, more importantly than who I ended up with, I bypassed a lot of the duds that transpired in the first 3 rounds at rb. So the short of it really is 2 things. 1)Never get stuck on a single drafting strategy. And 2) Stud QBs provide the most consistent stud production of any other player/position in FF. YEAR AFTER YEAR. Book it, zero doubt. Factor in teh fact that rbs tend to get hurt a lot more than qbs, and you have a solid case for starting your team with a stud qb right off the bat, UNLESS a rock solid proven rb is staring you in the face. Rookies, or 1 year wonders, not so much...

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Using standard scoring (25 yards passing, 10 yards rushing) with 6 point TD's and -2 interceptions...here are the QB rankings on a per game basis:

 

1. Michael Vick- 29.95

2. Aaron Rodgers- 24.80

3. Tom Brady- 23.54

4. Philip Rivers- 22.47

5. Peyton Manning- 22.08

6. Drew Brees- 21.78

7. Ben Roethlisberger- 20.36

8. Matt Cassel- 20.32

9. Kyle Orton- 19.84

10. David Garrard- 19.66

11. Ryan Fitzpatrick- 19.32

12. Josh Freeman- 19.28

13. Matt Ryan- 19.22

14. Eli Manning- 19.22

15. Joe Flacco- 19.08

 

That's FIFTEEN QB's that averaged at least 19 fantasy points per game, and doesn't even include Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler, or Tony Romo who were drafted as top 10 QB's this season. Vick is obviously the outlier. But he was undrafted in every league. Even if you took Peyton Manning or Drew Brees in the 1st or 2nd round, you only gained 1-2 points per week on guys like Orton, Garrard, Fitzpatrick, Freeman, etc. These guys were undrafted or late round selections in most leagues. While the top guys may be more predictable, I just don't think the advantage you gain by drafting a QB early is enough VALUE. I think you can find greater value on a first or second round RB or WR. Just my opinion. If I played matchups correctly with any 2 of the guys ranked 10-15th on that list, I probably could of improved my per game output enough to equal a Manning or Brees. Heck, I just won a championship with Jon Kitna as my QB, and I used Eli Manning most of the year, a guy I got in the 10th round.

 

here you are going under the assumption that the rbs and wrs you grabbed early while waiting on a qb are ALWAYS going to produce proportionately to where you drafted them. And that is the point I'm trying to make. year after year, the top rbs do not produce with any consistency. AT ALL. It's the nature of the position. This year was no different. More than half the 1-2 round rbs ###### the bed. Top rated qbs, not so much. They ALL outproduced based on their ADP, so taking them a bit earlier than others is actually highly advantageous...

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I think with 6 pts for QBs that you MUST have a solid QB. IF you target one later, you MUST choose wisely and get a very good bargain QB that is solid. Schaub (2008/9), Warner last year. Thing is, there are usually only one or two of those guys available, so you have to get the right guy.

 

I waited and targeted Kolb this year. Luckily, I backed him up w/Vick and BOOM....right choice. No idea what would have happened with Kolb as my starter all year, but it wouldn't have been near this good.

 

So...sure, you CAN wait, but it's a risky proposition. Choose wisely, and it's BOOM. Choose poorly, and it's BUST.

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here you are going under the assumption that the rbs and wrs you grabbed early while waiting on a qb are ALWAYS going to produce proportionately to where you drafted them. And that is the point I'm trying to make. year after year, the top rbs do not produce with any consistency. AT ALL. It's the nature of the position. This year was no different. More than half the 1-2 round rbs ###### the bed. Top rated qbs, not so much. They ALL outproduced based on their ADP, so taking them a bit earlier than others is actually highly advantageous...

 

 

Obviously it always comes down to picking the right guys, and then still making the right waiver wire adds. I just don't put a lot of value in gaining 2-3 points per week at the QB position by drafting one in the 1st or 2nd round. It would of been pretty difficult to not end up with a serviceable QB this season either late in the draft or through the waiver wire. The same can't be said about the other positions where you have to start 2 RB's and 3 WR's. Again, I will never knock someone who drafts a QB early. In this game there are a million different ways to build a championship team.

 

My personal strategy is just to never take a QB before the 5th round or so at the earliest...and usually more like the 8th or 9th round. I think I can make up those 2-3 points per week and probably more by stocking up on RB's and WR's in the early rounds, and giving myself a greater chance to find the Lesean McCoy's, Arian Foster's, Jamaal Charles, Hakeem Nicks, Dwayne Bowe, Mike Wallace, etc. These guys went in the 3rd-7th round in a lot of leagues. While my opponents who took a QB early are playing catch up at RB and WR, I'm already grabbing depth at the position, giving me what I feel is a greater chance to find the guys who jump from the middle rounds to 1st round producers. I don't care if my 1st rounder producers like a 5th rounder, as long as my 5th rounder produces like a 1st rounder. Just my opinion.

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It's all about relative value and identifying talent. I almost always draft a top tier QB in the 1st or 2nd round and I almost always draft a top flight TE in the 3rd to 6th round. These strategies work for me, because I'm not good at identifying the next 10th round superstar QB. So, I go QB early, load up on RBs throughout the draft, take my TE in the 4th or 5th, and take 3 or 4 high upside WRs between the 6th and 15th rounds.

 

This strategy works for me, but all the pieces have to fit together. If I sucked at drafting WRs, I couldn't get as many RBs early, which means I couldn't take a QB and TE early in the draft.

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The top QB's coming into the season were Rodgers, Rivers, Brees, Manning, Brady.

 

Vick wasn't even on the list.

 

Feel free to chase the top QB early, but there are different ways to pull together a solid team.

 

Yeah, what he said. I drafted 2nd in a 10 team league and got Peterson. The league is also 6 pts all TDs (including passing), so most of the league is QB happy, and by the time it came to my 2nd pick, the real big names were all gone and Rivers was best available QB. So I passed and decided to wait until later rounds to get a QB. Drafted Eli in like round 7 or 8, and later dropped him. Got Mike Vick, and tonight will win my league.

 

All hope is not lost if you don't grab a QB in the first 2 rounds, 6 pt TDs or not.

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Hopefully, if nothing else, you have learned this year the proper time utilize the cancel out theory.

It's a tried and true strategy that only us hardcore playas' know about. :bandana:

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I have a top 3 QB every year in all my leagues (6 points for passing touchdowns) but I never draft one in the first six rounds. Just like the advice I give every off season. This year I picked up Vick in one league and traded for A Rodgers in the other. It doesn't work for everyone.

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