I Guaranteed a Win Over the Defending Champ

[RSersen 0]

So, after being the only team in the league to start 3-0, I decided to go balls to the wall and guarantee a 4-0 start on the league homepage - against the highest scoring team in the league. Even put an extra $100 on the line.

 

Can I back it up?

 

MY TEAM (3-0):

QB: Brady (vs BAL)

RB: Parker (vs SD)

RB: Slaton (vs OAK)

WR: Jennings (@ MIN)

WR: Holmes (vs SD)

TE: Daniels (vs OAK)

K: Tynes (@ KC)

DEF: Giants (@ KC)

 

HIS TEAM (2-1):

QB: Schaub (vs OAK)

RB: ADP (vs GB)

RB: Pierre Thomas (vs NYJ)

WR: Andre Johnson (vs OAK)

WR: Santana Moss (vs TB)

TE: Carlson (vs IND)

K: Longwell (vs GB)

DEF: Eagles (BYE - assuming he'll get a WW fill-in)

 

This is a standard scoring league (PPR for WR/TE only). So, here's how I'm seeing it.

 

-I like the Oakland pass defense to limit his Johnson and Schaub. That'll force more balls to Daniels (advantage me), and more running by Slaton (advantage me).

-Giants defense should get me a good number of points.

-Jets have a pretty stingy run defense, I don't see Pierre duplicating last week.

-I read today that Parker has turf-toe, but if he starts, I like him against San Diego. If he doesn't play, I'm going with Barber (@ DEN).

-I see myself having a decent lead going into Monday night, and hoping that Jennings can help offset the late surge by ADP and Longwell.

 

Who's got the edge, in your opinion? No, this isn't a team management question. I know who I'm starting. I'm not looking for line-up advice.

[Eddie George 0]

I'd put 100 bucks on his team

[Bones40 0]

I'd put 500 on his team. How the hell are you 3-0?

[Jags_win_this_year 0]

Your only hope is that Oakland can stifle the Shaub to AJ connection, the only thing they stifle normally is their fans.

 

I put your odds at about 20% at best.

[RSersen 0]

How the hell are you 3-0?

 

Week 1 - 23 points from Jennings - came from behind, 95.5 - 81.5

Week 2 - 21 points from Barber, 15 from Tynes, and 13 from the NYG DEF - came from behind again, 88.5 - 81

Week 3 - Demolished opponent, who had Brees (lucky I got him on a bad week) - 92.5 - 65.5

 

As for this week, here's how I see it. Tell me where I'm wrong:

 

QB:

His Schaub goes up against the best shut-down corner in the league. Oakland's run defense is horrible, so I'm thinking Kubiak uses this game to get Slaton going.

My Brady goes up against a Ravens defense that allowed over 400 yards to Phillip Rivers. Baltimore will take away the run, forcing Brady to throw another 40-50 times. If Welker is back, even better.

Advantage: Me

 

RB:

His ADP - no comment needed.

His Thomas - tough matchup. The Jets are in the top 10 against the run. Allowed 38 yards to Houston. Allowed 83 yards to the Pats. Got gouged by CJ3 (97), but Pierre is no Johnson.

My Slaton - Again, Oakland is bad. They couldn't even stop Larry Johnson from getting 120 total yards. Moreno/Buckhalter put up 200 last week. Slaton showed some life last week, and should get a ton of touches.

My Parker - Last time he played SD, he put up 146 yards and 2 TD. Looked good against Cincy. Turf-toe is an issue...may play Barber @ DEN, or Bradshaw @ KC in his place.

Advantage: Him but it's not a landslide

 

WR:

His AJ - AJ vs Nmadi, in two games (06 and 08) - 3 rec, 26 yards. He will be more or less shut down.

His S Moss - Good game last week, but Moss is known for his inconsistency. Anyone trusting the Redskins offense?

My Jennings - Can't run on the Vikings. Gotta pass on them - and you can pass on them. Jennings has two 100-yard outings this year (along with his WK2 dud against Cincy)

My Holmes - Came back down to earth last week. Should rebound against a SD defense that has given up nice games to nobodies like L. Murphy (4-87-1) and Kelly Washington (4-58-1)

Advantage: Me, slightly

 

TE:

His Carlson - Trending downwards since his big week 1 performance. Losing Hasselbeck hasn't helped.

My Daniels - Trending upwards. Yardage going up, and he's starting to find the endzone consistently. With AJ shut down, Schaub will look his way a lot.

Advantage: Me

 

I'm now realizing that absolutely no one is reading this wall of text, so I'll skip kickers and defenses. But to sum it up - this isn't as lopsided as you're thinking. Again, tell me if I'm wrong.

 

It's in the bag!

[Eddie George 0]

Week 1 - 23 points from Jennings - came from behind, 95.5 - 81.5

Week 2 - 21 points from Barber, 15 from Tynes, and 13 from the NYG DEF - came from behind again, 88.5 - 81

Week 3 - Demolished opponent, who had Brees (lucky I got him on a bad week) - 92.5 - 65.5

 

As for this week, here's how I see it. Tell me where I'm wrong:

 

QB:

His Schaub goes up against the best shut-down corner in the league. Oakland's run defense is horrible, so I'm thinking Kubiak uses this game to get Slaton going.

My Brady goes up against a Ravens defense that allowed over 400 yards to Phillip Rivers. Baltimore will take away the run, forcing Brady to throw another 40-50 times. If Welker is back, even better.

Advantage: Me

 

RB:

His ADP - no comment needed.

His Thomas - tough matchup. The Jets are in the top 10 against the run. Allowed 38 yards to Houston. Allowed 83 yards to the Pats. Got gouged by CJ3 (97), but Pierre is no Johnson.

My Slaton - Again, Oakland is bad. They couldn't even stop Larry Johnson from getting 120 total yards. Moreno/Buckhalter put up 200 last week. Slaton showed some life last week, and should get a ton of touches.

My Parker - Last time he played SD, he put up 146 yards and 2 TD. Looked good against Cincy. Turf-toe is an issue...may play Barber @ DEN, or Bradshaw @ KC in his place.

Advantage: Him but it's not a landslide

 

WR:

His AJ - AJ vs Nmadi, in two games (06 and 08) - 3 rec, 26 yards. He will be more or less shut down.

His S Moss - Good game last week, but Moss is known for his inconsistency. Anyone trusting the Redskins offense?

My Jennings - Can't run on the Vikings. Gotta pass on them - and you can pass on them. Jennings has two 100-yard outings this year (along with his WK2 dud against Cincy)

My Holmes - Came back down to earth last week. Should rebound against a SD defense that has given up nice games to nobodies like L. Murphy (4-87-1) and Kelly Washington (4-58-1)

Advantage: Me, slightly

 

TE:

His Carlson - Trending downwards since his big week 1 performance. Losing Hasselbeck hasn't helped.

My Daniels - Trending upwards. Yardage going up, and he's starting to find the endzone consistently. With AJ shut down, Schaub will look his way a lot.

Advantage: Me

 

I'm now realizing that absolutely no one is reading this wall of text, so I'll skip kickers and defenses. But to sum it up - this isn't as lopsided as you're thinking. Again, tell me if I'm wrong.

 

It's in the bag!

 

QB

Is this your first year watching football? Why the hell would you try to stop the pats run and force Brady to throw? Thank god you are not the Balt coach.

Sure they gave up a freak amount to Rivers, but gave up only a 260 yards combined the other 2 weeks.

 

RB

As you said, cannot compare ADP and Pierre to a slumping Slaton and Parker, regardless their matchups

 

WR

You think my Pack will pass on Minn bc they can't run on them? Minn is 2nd best in giving up ff points to WR's. Combine that with Rogers lack of looking in his direction and you have another game under 40 yards. Although AJ has been shut down by them before, he and Schaub have proved they can beat even the stingiest of defenses.

 

TE

Who cares, neither have Clarke

[RSersen 0]

Is this your first year watching football? Why the hell would you try to stop the pats run and force Brady to throw? Thank god you are not the Balt coach.

 

So do you suggest they not try to stop the run? Taylor gashed the Falcons...but you just can't run on Baltimore. If the Pats want to move the ball, it'll have to be through the air. Unless you think the Ravens front 7 should just take a knee and let Taylor get 4-5 yards a clip so Brady doesn't throw as much. Wth?

 

Sure they gave up a freak amount to Rivers, but gave up only a 260 yards combined the other 2 weeks.

 

The other two weeks were against Brodie Croyle, and the Cleveland trainwreck of Quinn/Anderson. Brady won't put up 400 yards like Rivers, but he'll do much better than KC or Cleveland.

 

As you said, cannot compare ADP and Pierre to a slumping Slaton and Parker, regardless their matchups

 

The thing about slumps - they end eventually. Oakland couldn't even stop the anemic KC o-line and old man Johnson from putting up 78 yards (and 41 rec). Moreno and Buckhalter put up 200 combined last week. Slaton will run wild on them.

 

You think my Pack will pass on Minn bc they can't run on them? Minn is 2nd best in giving up ff points to WR's. Combine that with Rogers lack of looking in his direction and you have another game under 40 yards.

 

Minnesota has shut down Quinn to Edwards, and Shaun Hill to...Josh Morgan? Although Vernon Davis was able to grab 96 yards. Not very impressive. Even Stafford to CJ netted 5 for 51 and a TD - 13.5 points in my league. I think Jennings can do better than that.

 

AJ and Schaub have proved they can beat even the stingiest of defenses.

 

Like they beat the Jets in Week 1? Where Schaub had an amazing 166 yards, and Johnson a craptacular 35? Schaub is a very good QB, but not matchup-proof. Even if Schaub is putting up good numbers, it's going to be to Walter/Daniels/Slaton (two of which only help me). Johnson has been shut down twice by Oakland, and will be again.

 

If you're going to say it's my first year watching football, you have to come at me with something better than this.

[shovelheadt 71]

Baltimore is going to smack down your best player, while Oakland is going to allow his two best players to go nuts. You're done.

[Filthy Fernadez 2,696]

I'd lay my money on his team. He's got the better matchups and a couple of your starters are off to a SLOOOOW start.

 

In fact, isn't W. Parker out with turf toe this week?

[RSersen 0]

I'd lay my money on his team. He's got the better matchups and a couple of your starters are off to a SLOOOOW start.

 

In fact, isn't W. Parker out with turf toe this week?

 

From what I've heard, Parker will miss some practice time, but no one has said anything about the game itself. If it looks iffy, I'll go with Bradshaw against the Chiefs. Barber at Denver is a possibility too - particulary if Felix is out.

 

Baltimore is going to smack down your best player, while Oakland is going to allow his two best players to go nuts. You're done.

 

The same Baltimore team that let Rivers go off for 430 yards is going to smack down Brady.

 

And the same Oakland pass defense that has shut down Andre Johnson every time he's played them will allow him to go nuts.

 

Gotcha.

[larrybird 0]

Sorry dude, hate to bust your bubble but come sunday the champ wil be having a nice brunch of your a$$

[PATSSOX 22]

I'd put 500 on his team. How the hell are you 3-0?

 

+1

 

the other fella has the better team

 

you better hope Brady finally plays the way he is supposed to this week or your $100 poorer

[Sho Nuff 720]

in the immortal words of Chet Donnelly "you're stewed buttwad".

[Darth Fumble 0]

You've got a lot of eggs in the Pit and NYG basket. Good luck, you'll need it.

[da_mane_man 1]

i'll put 500 on his team

[nordwave 2]

I like HIS TEAM way better.

Anything can happen though.

To win, you'll need several of his players to take a dump on the field Sunday.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

your assessment of the positional advantages is at best.

 

 

you can win but id put my money on his team. You are lucky to be 3-0

[RSersen 0]

You've got a lot of eggs in the Pit and NYG basket. Good luck, you'll need it.

 

The only thing I've got riding on NYG-KC is the defense and kicker. Defense should get a good number of sacks/turnovers, and maybe even another shut-out. I may start Bradshaw if Parker doesn't look like he's gonna go, but that's it.

 

Most of the eggs are in Raiders vs Texans. His Schaub/AJ vs my Slaton/Daniels. That game decides the match-up.

[Tony_Romo_Domination 0]

Your starting Rbs are willie parker and slaton and you are 3-0. I smell a lie. YOu have an underperforming Brady and Jennings and you are 3-0?

 

I think you are more than due for a 3-4 game losing streak and you probably just threw away that money.

[FrankRizzo 0]

So, after being the only team in the league to start 3-0, I decided to go balls to the wall and guarantee a 4-0 start on the league homepage - against the highest scoring team in the league. Even put an extra $100 on the line.

 

Can I back it up?

 

MY TEAM (3-0):

QB: Brady (vs BAL)

RB: Parker (vs SD)

RB: Slaton (vs OAK)

WR: Jennings (@ MIN)

WR: Holmes (vs SD)

TE: Daniels (vs OAK)

 

HIS TEAM (2-1):

QB: Schaub (vs OAK)

RB: ADP (vs GB)

RB: Pierre Thomas (vs NYJ)

WR: Andre Johnson (vs OAK)

WR: Santana Moss (vs TB)

TE: Carlson (vs IND)

 

 

Brady vs Schaub

This could go either way ... It's really up to Brady if he wants to get his head out of his ass and play like the Brady of old, if so then advantage you, otherwise I would play Schaub. I think they will have similar numbers by the end of the day.

DRAW

 

Parker/Slaton/Bradshaw/Barber vs ADP/PThomas

I like the latter ... by a LOT.

HIM in a LANDSLIDE

 

Jennings/Holmes vs AJ/SMoss

Another one that could go either way ... his WRs will get the targets so I like them better (altho chances of SMoss going off 2 weeks in a row not likely, WRs just don't do that). Personally, I would be happy with either group this week.

DRAW

 

Carlson/Daniels

I like Daniels ... solid solid TE no doubt. Carlson could be good, but Colts allow fewest points to TEs.

YOU

 

Overall, I like his team and matchups ... mainly the RBs are just sooo much better. You need to stop looking through rose colored glasses and see the other side of the coin. Your matchup with him will be close (because of all the intertwined pieces - you guys live in Texas or something??) but again, HIM is the team I would throw my money at ....

 

Please come back on Monday night and bump this up ....

[RSersen 0]

Your starting Rbs are willie parker and slaton and you are 3-0. I smell a lie. YOu have an underperforming Brady and Jennings and you are 3-0?

 

I think you are more than due for a 3-4 game losing streak and you probably just threw away that money.

 

Slaton and Barber, actually. Rode Parker last week with Barber out, and was going to do it again before this turf-toe BS came up.

 

No lie.

 

Screenshot

[cyeaser 3]

sorry man but i have to agree with everyone else....i like his team more then yours..you will probally lose and find an excuse, but either way i like his team to win..

[RSersen 0]

sorry man but i have to agree with everyone else....i like his team more then yours..you will probally lose and find an excuse, but either way i like his team to win..

 

No excuses. This is all for fun. If he has more points than me at the end of the week, he won, and it means I was wrong on one or more of my predictions. End of story.

 

Win or lose I'll be back to bump this up on Monday night (or Sunday, if the outcome is decided by then).

[stonewall 647]

From what I've heard, Parker will miss some practice time, but no one has said anything about the game itself. If it looks iffy, I'll go with Bradshaw against the Chiefs. Barber at Denver is a possibility too - particulary if Felix is out.

 

Bad Plan......Bradshaw and Barber are very iffy plays this week due to injury.

[RSersen 0]

Bad Plan......Bradshaw and Barber are very iffy plays this week due to injury.

 

Bradshaw's not that bad. Per rotoworld:

 

Ahmad Bradshaw (ankle/foot) was surprisingly on the Giants' injury report Wednesday, but coach Tom Coughlin "fully expects" him to play Sunday against the Chiefs.

Bradshaw will not practice Wednesday and is wearing a protective boot. It's an old injury that he tweaked against the Bucs Sunday. It doesn't sound like there's too much concern here, but let's see Bradshaw gets back into practice later this week.

 

Despite missing practice, Ahmad Bradshaw (ankle) said Wednesday that he fully expects to play Sunday against Kansas City.

Bradshaw is in a protective boot, but both he and the team are confident that he'll play in Week 4. Bradshaw leads the Giants with a 5.7 YPC average.

 

Not loving Barber as a 4 pm likely game-time decision, so I'm ruling him out as an option.

 

I'll see what happens. NYG/KC is a 1 pm start, so I have to make decision before then. If Parker is looking like a game-time 8pm decision, I'll just roll with Bradshaw, as long as he practices Thursday and Friday.

[thePRO 78]

I'm thinking he's going to win too. It should be close though. 87-76 him.

[RSersen 0]

Please come back on Monday night and bump this up ....

 

I'll do it now, since it's pretty much over, barring something crazy on Monday night.

 

HIS TEAM:

QB Schaub - 224 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT - 13 FP

RB P. Thomas - 86 rush yds, 1 TD - 46 rec yds - 18 FP

RB Peterson - did not play yet

WR A. Johnson - 2 rec, 66 yds - 7 FP

WR S. Moss - 2 rec, 74 yds, 1 TD - 16 FP

TE Winslow - 2 rec, 21 yards - 3 FP

K Longwell - did not play yet

DEF San Fran - 5 sacks, 1 int, 0 points allowed, 3 defensive TD - 38 FP

TOTAL: 95 FP

 

MY TEAM:

QB Brady - 258 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT - 11 rush yards, 1 TD - 23 FP

RB Slaton - 65 rush yards, 1 TD - 24 rec yards, 1 TD - 20 FP

RB Barber - 41 rush yards, 1 TD - 27 rec yards - 12 FP

WR Jennings - did not play yet

WR Holmes - 4 rec, 52 yards - 7 FP

TE Daniels - 2 rec, 48 yards - 5 FP

K Tynes - 3 PAT, 2 FG (25,40) - 10 FP

DEF NY Giants - 5 sacks, 1 fumble, 16 points allowed - 11 FP

TOTAL: 88 FP

 

So, barring some kind of Monday night miracle, I'll be paying him the money on Tuesday morning. Oh well - nothing ventured, nothing gained.

 

Still, I felt I predicted most of the matchups pretty well - just didn't see St. Louis self-destructing as badly as they did. A hex on the entire Rams franchise.

[Spec7ral 6]

just didn't see St. Louis self-destructing as badly as they did.

 

 

Do they have a blackout on STL scores and stats the last year and a half in your city?

 

Edit: Good on ya for putting your money where your mouth, even if it's writing cheques to Ron Mexico.

[RSersen 0]

Do they have a blackout on STL scores and stats the last year and a half in your city?

 

Edit: Good on ya for putting your money where your mouth, even if it's writing cheques to Ron Mexico.

 

I expected the 9ers D to do well. Hell, I wouldn't have been surprised with a shut-out. But 3 defensive scores?

 

Then again, this is Kyle Boller we're talking about. And living in Baltimore, I've certainly seen my fair share of Boller implosions. Should have known better.