Which WR is 1st Round Worthy?

[ggroovy17 0]

I'm in a heavy TD league and after the first 3 RB's (SA, LJ, LT) it is crapshoot to pick which RB's will get over 10 TD's. Do you think Terrell Owens, Steve Smith, or Larry Fitzgerald will get over 12 TD's this year making them worth first round draft picks? If not those 3 who else could get over 12 TD's in the wideout postition?

[ellisonb11 0]

i dont think selecting a WR in the first round is a very good idea, but i dont know the point system in your league. maybe steve smith late in the first if you want to, but i like to stick with a RB choice in the first.

[akareckas 0]

I'm in a heavy TD league and after the first 3 RB's (SA, LJ, LT) it is crapshoot to pick which RB's will get over 10 TD's. Do you think Terrell Owens, Steve Smith, or Larry Fitzgerald will get over 12 TD's this year making them worth first round draft picks? If not those 3 who else could get over 12 TD's in the wideout postition?

 

TO is certainly a TD machine at WR, and historically so is Randy Moss. Personally I wouldn't go this route unless I were drafting very late though...you don't want to miss out on the backs altogether. WIth the number of question marks and committee situations in backfields right now, participants in early drafts would do well to nab at least one unquestioned starter in a good fantasy situation.

[gunnergip 0]

I agree with the other responses and in addition you gotta think about which position will be deeper and easier to fill come rounds 3 4 5. RBs, as usual, will be hard to fit into your starting lineup come those round and thus you should try and get a top wr in the second or just take the best possible player. I guess this is an advantage for guys who have a late pick in the first round because they will get a crack at a decent RB and a top tier WR.

[remote controller 133]

A wr in the first, takes me out of my comfort zone. I would consider any of the ones mentioned, on the first corner, after securing the back. (would still much rather have the second back)

[Super Cubs 132]

If you think taking a WR in the 1st round gives you the best chance at winning your league then do it. I would go with TO, S Smith, Harrison, Holt, Fitz, and R Moss.

[Peens 0]

If you think taking a WR in the 1st round gives you the best chance at winning your league then do it. I would go with TO, S Smith, Harrison, Holt, Fitz, and R Moss.

 

Smith is the only WR worthy of a 1st round pick imo. TO has too many questions to even be considered that high. New Dallas O, Attitude and possible suspension from team when he acts like a jackass is enough for me to bypass him. Maybe late 2nd for TO IMO.

[gatorbait7391 0]

wouldnt take a wr but if I did id take SS

[FlaHawker 24]

if I am picking near the bottom of the first round and my best option was a WR, of those three I would take Steve Smith

[Super Cubs 132]

Smith is the only WR worthy of a 1st round pick imo. TO has too many questions to even be considered that high. New Dallas O, Attitude and possible suspension from team when he acts like a jackass is enough for me to bypass him. Maybe late 2nd for TO IMO.

The Tuna maybe the coach but its still Jerry's team and there is no way he suspends TO. He does have a additude but he also has the skills to back it up.

[mgs316 14]

Harrison is still the safest WR bet in the league. Guaranteed 1100 yards and 10-12 td's, with some upside potential.

 

Next safest I would say Steve Smith thanks to consistancy with the QB position but he has potentional to do more then Harrison, but also could do less if defenses don't have to watch KJ too much and roll eveything his way.

 

The most potential is Owens. He is the #1 talent between these three, and could turn in a 17 TD season if healthy and the ego doesn't get in the way. Bledsoe is the type of QB who can get him the ball where he likes. Plus it's year one for TO so he'll be on his best behavior.

 

I would take them Harrison first, Owens second, Smith third factoring in: potential, upside, downside, consistancy, and situation.

 

Fitzgerald is great, but one sprained thumb away by Warner and you get the rook in there, who I like but it would take a while to get up to speed with the offense. C. Johnson, could lose 1/4 of a season with Carson's status. Holt has never been a big TD producer, so count him out. Moss' hammies might cost him the later half of his career, so buyer beware.

 

In a 12-14 team draft i wouldn't touch a WR until LJ, SA, LT, EDGE, Portis, Barber, Manning, Jordan, Jackson are off the board at a minimum. Wait till 10-14 and take one of those 3, then team up with a Brown, Caddy, McGahee and hope they have big years.

[JoeRedneck 3]

Never pick a WR with your first round pick,period.

[9-Route 0]

on tds alone, there are only 3 wrs deserving of 1st rd consideration: moss, TO, harrison. NONE of the others are proven td monsters with 80+% chance of delivering 13+tds. [these guys have had 4+ seasons with 12+tds, and 3 seasons with 14+tds]

 

ssmith, fitz, boldin, cjohnson, and even holt are all awesome rec/yds guys, but not bonafide td machines like the above trio.

[ellisonb11 0]

Never pick a WR with your first round pick,period.

 

took the words out of my mouth

[HawgWild 0]

I have never taken a WR in the first round... It would make me sick to my stomach if I did... JMHO

[mozzy84 0]

on tds alone, there are only 3 wrs deserving of 1st rd consideration: moss, TO, harrison. NONE of the others are proven td monsters with 80+% chance of delivering 13+tds. [these guys have had 4+ seasons with 12+tds, and 3 seasons with 14+tds]

 

ssmith, fitz, boldin, cjohnson, and even holt are all awesome rec/yds guys, but not bonafide td machines like the above trio.

 

this was going to be my answer, we are talking about tds here.

[Rye & Leaf 0]

none are first round worthy, in fact i wouldn't select a WR until after the 15th pick, and if I do pick one, I have my sights set on Holt. I think he has better numbers than steve smith this season, not that he would be a distant second.

 

Of course, if you start 3 Wr and 2 Rb with no flex, sneaking a Wr into the first round isn't the worst thing you could do, in fact if you have a late round pick in the first round, you should take a WR with the first or second pick because the premier talent won't be there for your third round pick.

[ggroovy17 0]

I have Shaun Alexander as my franchise and our first 3 rounds are an auction. With only Portis and Rudi being the noteworthy running backs available i'm considering spending all my money on 3 quality receivers without taking a running back. If I had Shaun Alexander, Torry Holt, Larry Fitzgerald, and Chris Chambers (just as an example) i'd be very happy.

[Let Da Big Dog Eat 37]

Never pick a WR with your first round pick,period.

 

Yeah, what he said. Especially in a TD heavy league.

[9-Route 0]

Yeah, what he said. Especially in a TD heavy league.

 

i just dont see how this can be said with such conviction/certainty.

 

besides the hbs taken at 1-2-3, show me a hb with as comparable a td track record as moss/TO/harrison:

 

portis hit 17 and 15tds in denver; in wash, he has had 7 and 11.

 

edge has had 11,9,and 14 the past 3 seasons.

 

tiki has a 4yr run of 11, 3, 15, and 11.

 

rudi is competitive with tallies of 9,12, and 12.

 

no other hb merited research.

 

these still are not boasts at the levels i previously posted about the 3 super wrs.

[Ace08 11]

In the original post in this thread....it referred to the league as "TD heavy". Just how heavy? I'm in a big money league that, by my standards, is REALLY TD heavy. We award 20 points for all rushing/receiving TD's and 10 for passing TD's. Yardage however is standard (1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving). If you're league is THAT heavy....I might have some good advice for you.

 

I've won the league 3 out of the 4 years I've been in it. When TD's are this heavy conventional fantasy drafting is thrown out the window. You want TD's, period.....everything else is secondary. Unless you can get LT, LJ, or SA who you know are locks for between 14-18 TD's your best best is to grab 2 studly WR's (Steve Smith and Terrell Owens come to mind, maybe even Fitz) early and then simply look for goal line backs later on. I've used this strategy in the past and it's worked like a charm. Portis can run for 150 yards and would be outscored by Bettis who had 3 carries for 8 yards but 1 TD. Meanwhile my wide receivers are lighting it up. Last year I actually went WR-WR-TE (Antonio Gates) and then took 3 goal line back later in the draft.......I was getting TD's from all my starters on a weekly basis.

 

Keep in mind....this only works for this type of league. I am the biggest proponent of RB-RB drafting in the world in a normal league......

[Parja 0]

besides the hbs taken at 1-2-3, show me a hb with as comparable a td track record as moss/TO/harrison:

 

Making apples to apples comparisons between two different positions is an early sign of dementia. Today's word is depth. With all the RBBCs and situations like Denver, Minny, and Indy that are still pretty up in the air, RBs are more valuable than ever.

[Fumbleweed 426]

Never pick a WR with your first round pick,period.

 

I kind of agree with this.....but only in terms of this year.

 

Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, and Marvin Harrison have all commanded first round picks in recent years and for good reason. They dominated the position and were in a tier all their own.

 

Every FF principle for me goes on a year-to-year basis. To pass on Moss, Harrison, or Rice in their primes at the end of a first round would have been a crazy thing to do.

[mtammen 0]

Never pick a WR with your first round pick,period.

 

You obviously haven't played in a 14 or 16 team league and drafted at the end. We need to know how many ppl are in his league.

[Junkie 0]

I kind of agree with this.....but only in terms of this year.

 

Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, and Marvin Harrison have all commanded first round picks in recent years and for good reason. They dominated the position and were in a tier all their own.

 

Every FF principle for me goes on a year-to-year basis. To pass on Moss, Harrison, or Rice in their primes at the end of a first round would have been a crazy thing to do.

 

 

I was going to say the same thing. This year there are two many question marks with the top WRs. I like Steve Smith, but you have to figure that teams will eventually learn to shut him down. Maybe last year's NFC Championship was the beginning of that. I could go on about the others, but if you're reading this site in May you already know their situations. Unless things change between now and draft day, I'll stick with a RB in the first round in my 10 team league. In the 12 teamer if I land the 12th pick, Smith, Harrison, Owens or Moss will be tempting at the turn if I can also get a RB in my top 10 with the next pick.

[9-Route 0]

Making apples to apples comparisons between two different positions is an early sign of dementia. Today's word is depth. With all the RBBCs and situations like Denver, Minny, and Indy that are still pretty up in the air, RBs are more valuable than ever.

 

i disagree. lj and super-shaun are definitely 20+td capable, and lt is a close 18-20td capable.

 

the rest of the hb group is always maligned and out of position---they always end up ranked differently at year end; furthermore, there are still very few, if any, that surely post top end td totals.

 

these 3 wrs are among the top6-7 'consistent' threats (80+% chance) to post high end td totals. besides, there are more goalline hbs to pluck late than there are goalline wrs. i dont feel the marginal utility argument holds as much weight here.

[mdubz 0]

10 teamer, definitely none. 12 teamer, probably still none. 14 teamer, probably 1 and maybe two (smith and TO). 16 teamer, 2 or 3.