Round 1 Commentary

[NAn 39]

Let's hear it boys (let's keep this simple title format too please).

[remote controller 143]

That was a horrible pick!!!

[thedanzone 2]

nan, you should put the drafting order in the 1st post of the selections thread.

[Fumbleweed 543]

Which one?

[remote controller 143]

I was really hoping LJ or SA would fall to me at pick #10, but I'll regroup

[NAn 39]

nan, you should put the drafting order in the 1st post of the selections thread.

 

And you should just back off!

 

good call...done

[FantasyKing 4]

I was really hoping LJ or SA would fall to me at pick #10, but I'll regroup

 

Well I decided to go against the norm, and make a bold pick and go with Shaun Alexander. I know it's between him and Ricky Watters this year but I feel he overtakes the starting role and has a great season.

[Da Bomb 0]

well it was a tough choice between tomlinson, culpepper, and moss at #3, but i decided to go with tomlinson this time.

 

in all seriousness, tomlinson was the obvious pick here, and wouldve easily been my choice at 2, and possibly but probably not 1.

 

however, as i was looking a little at tomlinson's numbers and situation, and i know this is essentially fantasy football blasphemy, but i wonder if we ought to be concerned about LT2.

 

*hes averaged over 400 touches a season the last five years, ie his entire nfl career. that is a RIDICULOUS work load, one that i doubt is matched in nfl history. he gets a lot of carries as it is, and then you add in 50+ catches a year and his body is taking a beating each year.

 

*hes showed it the last two years. hes only missed one game, but hes played hurt and slowed down toward the end of the year. last year in the last 5 games, against mediocre defenses, tomlinson averaged about 75 or 80 yards total, and he had just one TD the entire last five weeks. thats not even RB2 caliber.

 

*in fact, last year tomlinson rushed for 100+ yards only 5 times all season. i see all the time people pointing out that they are concerned with guys like dunn and parker doing that only 5 times, but what about tomlinson? also, tomlinson scored 14 TDs in those 5 games, but only 6 TDs in the entire other 11 games. so in 5 games, tomlinson had about 900 combined yards and 14 TDs... and in the other 11, he had about 950 yards and 6 TDs. yikes.

 

*his ypc has dropped from 4.5 and 5.3 in 02 and 03, to just 3.9 and 4.3 the last two years. and after having an average of 431 touches each of those two years, he dropped to just 391 touches each of the last two years. that means hes getting the ball 40+ times less over the season, and hes getting about a half yard less each time on top of it.

 

*he has a new QB in town, and still a team that is lacking a good OL or any good options at WR. why wouldnt teams stack the box, double team gates, and let rivers try to beat them? sure teams did it against brees, but he was good enough at times to make them pay. are we sure rivers will step in without missing a beat? and yes, i realize that a new QB may mean a few more dropoff passes. hey, i took tomlinson for a reason. hes still a star. but is he the #1 pick?

 

probably the first time ive made a pick in a draft and then gone on to bash myself afterward. im not really bashing the pick, and i wont blame anyone who takes tomlinson in the top 3, or even at #1. hard to be upset with a guy who has an off year and scores 20 TDs. but are there warning signs for this guy that are just getting conveniently ignored? last year if your team had tomlinson, you probably won huge those 5 good weeks, made the playoffs, and then got completely swept while he was exhausted/injured and nearly worthless down the stretch -- and remember that was during the chargers' playoff push too.

 

a bit of an off year? or a warning sign of things to come?

[FantasyKing 4]

Yeah tough choice for me between Shaun and LT, the main thing of what you mentioned that scares me about LT is Rivers. Stop Tomlinson - Stop Gates - that's all that defenses have to worry about right now. LT is going to get his, but again this year the load of the offense (and bulk of the touches) are going to fall on his shoulders. You are right, how long can he keep up this punishment.

[Da Bomb 0]

rivers is actually one of my lesser concerns. anyone who watched san diego much last season saw that drew brees was struggling for most of the year. QBs have a good history when they are drafted and have a chance to sit and learn for awhile first. see chad pennington (pre injury), carson palmer, daunte culpepper, eli manning, and others im sure. i dont think rivers will be a top nfl qb, but i dont think brees was either. i dont see much of a dropoff, after rivers adjusts his first 2-4 games.

 

can we get rid of all this jerry porter league crap? ive seen enough of this on the mange bored already!

 

[Erb047 0]

Hey NAn check your emails bro, for some reason it wont allow me to PM you

[thedanzone 2]

I was hoping nan would take Portis and not Barber. I like Barber a lot. He's been very consistent and healthy over the last couple of years. He did touch the ball a lot more last year compared to any other year, which brings some concern, but I still think he has a couple years left in the tank.

 

If nan would have taken Barber I would have had a tough time choosing between three different backs.

[FantasyKing 4]

can we get rid of all this jerry porter league crap? ive seen enough of this on the mange bored already!

 

 

 

6 days and 4 rounds? Time to let it go.

[ShaneFalco 0]

I went with Jackson at the 6 spot. I really like his chances of moving into the "elite" status of RBs this year. Last year for the first half of the season he was the #2 RB behind Alexander. Then Bulger got hurt and his numbers went down. Martz is gone, and Linehan is in, and with him comes a more run-oriented offensive philosophy. And with almost no competition, Jackson should see plenty of carries. And when he gets them he is solid.

[NAn 39]

This pecking order of the Big3: LJ/SA/LT2 is becoming more and more the norm in recent mocks.

 

Curious to hear the thinking of fumble/king on why they went with who they did.

 

I have it just like that on my board, but to be honest the diff between LJ/SA is nominal...as things move along, for many of the reasons bomb mentions, particularly the workload, I'm almost to pt of putting LT2 in second tier by himself.

[FantasyKing 4]

This pecking order of the Big3: LJ/SA/LT2 is becoming more and more the norm in recent mocks.

 

Curious to hear the thinking of fumble/king on why they went with who they did.

 

I have it just like that on my board, but to be honest the diff between LJ/SA is nominal...as things move along, for many of the reasons bomb mentions, particularly the workload, I'm almost to pt of putting LT2 in second tier by himself.

 

 

If this were a PPR league like mine, I'd take Tomlinson. But here I go with Alexander - really with the top 3, I do not think you can go wrong with any of them - I think Tomlinson actually has the biggest question mark of the 3 due to his slowdown at the end of last year and other issues Bomb brought up - still though, he is a stud.

[football_scooter 0]

 

6 days and 4 rounds? Time to let it go.

 

Eat me!

 

It's a slow draft. Not time-wise, but "rides the short bus" kind.

 

So give us "special" kids a break.

[Miller_Time_21 0]

Eat me!

 

It's a slow draft. Not time-wise, but "rides the short bus" kind.

 

So give us "special" kids a break.

WTF are you sticking your nose into this for??? Kindly STFU and stay out of our mock, TIA, HTH

 

Man it felt good to revert to the old days for a second.

[football_scooter 0]

WTF are you sticking your nose into this for??? Kindly STFU and stay out of our mock, TIA, HTH

 

Man it felt good to revert to the old days for a second.

 

lmao

 

well, I was just gonna browse the commentary, but then your boyz started trashing our league, so I felt I had to defend them....uh, by putting us all down.

 

And you didn't really revert, because you forgot to call me a d0uche.

 

lol

[NAn 39]

KING

yes, in PPR diff animal and agree LT2 bumped up a bit

 

V4E

thanks for the 'pick' threads!

 

ERB

got your email and returned it...how about access today?

 

SHANE

not that I don't like the pick, but that's about as high as I've seen SJax go...your thinking?

BTW, try to answer WITHOUT actually naming any player not picked yet....kid of an unwritten rule.

[NAn 39]

RE: PORTIS

Looked at Gibbs career as an HC and found the following:

 

RUSH ATTS

6 of 13 seasons top5

9 of 13 top10

12 of 13 top15

Tells me Gibbs will run the ball

 

RUSH TDS

5 of 13 seasons top5

7 of 13 top10

9 of 13 top15

Tells me he likes to score on the ground

 

10 of 13 seasons, ONE rb got lion share of carries/tds

Tells me he'll give it to one guy, if that's his workhorse

 

SCORING

4 of 13 seasons top5

7 of 13 top10

9 of 13 top15

Tells me his teams score pts

 

Also looking at Portis himself, compared to other 'workhorse' rbs at this stage of his career...trend is for his carries to go up even more, likely to the 380+ range.

 

Overall, that tells me Gibbs/Portis first year back in WAS was more an aberration as far as pts scored as a team/Portis td totals.

 

And that this year Portis in for a big year.

[Da Bomb 0]

hey erb... 1, youre up. 2, id be happy to take a pick list for you tomorrow. that goes for anyone else too, i should be around all day with the possible exception of the cup game.

 

ETA: thats world, not lord stanley's, that im speaking of.

 

nan - did you get ahold of jb? what are we doing with that?

[remote controller 143]

hey erb... 1, youre up. 2, id be happy to take a pick list for you tomorrow. that goes for anyone else too, i should be around all day with the possible exception of the cup game.

 

ETA: thats world, not lord stanley's, that im speaking of.

 

nan - did you get ahold of jb? what are we doing with that?

Damn Grass fires. Glad I didn't hold things up. It will take me about 30 Minutes to cleanup the fire truck. I'll be right back

[Fumbleweed 543]

Guys....I'm not going to be around much today...just checking in briefly, but I'll have some commentary over the weekend........

[Clash of the Titans 1]

ii should be around all day with thepossible exception of the cup game.

 

ETA: thats world, not lord stanley's, that im speaking of.

 

nan - did you get ahold of jb? what are we doing with that?

 

 

please turn in your forearm membership and exit to the left

 

don't tell me you actually watch that crap...like a longtime buddy of mine says...soccer= football for poosays

 

seriously i ain't gonna be around after the next 20 minutes or so...so i'll e-mail my list under your name if that's cool

[FantasyKing 4]

Thanks for killin the flow of the draft newbie.

[Clash of the Titans 1]

ahh the heck with it..not to hold things up........a simple predraft list for my 1.9

 

1- lamont's jordan

2- ronnie's brown

 

layter

[Da Bomb 0]

just to give everyone a heads up... i dont think hellotehre will be particpating this year. ive been proxy-pickign for him in his 2 dynasty rookie drafts this week. hes doing a job where he moves a lot, and he currently doesnt really have net access, but for a dollar a minute. he hoped to do the mock, but esp with the early start, i think hes out.

 

the last post i see from -jb- (our alternate) said he was golfing today til 1 PT. i assume that means 3 central, ie in about a half hour. we'll wait awhile and see if he can take the reins. jb, if youre reading this, go ahead and make a pick. if we dont hear anything by 330 central (in an hour), then i'll make a proxy pick. we have clash's pick at 9, so you three guys at 10-12 try to stick around and we can hopefully nail your corner picks late this afternoon.

 

[football_scooter 0]

hey, could you guys speed it up a little? Clash is in the real draft below, and it'd sure be nice to see who he picks in the next few rounds.

[ShaneFalco 0]

SHANE

not that I don't like the pick, but that's about as high as I've seen SJax go...your thinking?

BTW, try to answer WITHOUT actually naming any player not picked yet....kid of an unwritten rule.

 

I see good things this season for Jackson. Some of my reasoning is outlined in my comments a couple of posts above. I don't think Edge is going to have the same numbers in Arizona as he did in Indy. He came to a team with a much worse offensive line. I think the trend we have seen with older RBs changing teams is a general decline in numbers, especially the first year, with a few exceptions. Some of my other options included RBs who are less proven, as well as another who I think has less potential than Jackson. I had someone else in mind who I really want on my team, but 6 is too high for him and I think Jackson will out performs him.

 

 

ETA: I'll be gone tonight from around 7 until 11. I don't know if I'll get to pick by then, but I'll be back tonight to check in. Just to let you guys know.

[Da Bomb 0]

hey, could you guys speed it up a little? Clash is in the real draft below, and it'd sure be nice to see who he picks in the next few rounds.

 

for the second time, please mind your own business and stay out of our threads, or risk the threat of us going through and tearing apart your draft below, because there are a lot of BRUTAL picks in there. you may comment in the thread at the main board, otherwise please respect our privacy just as you have expected for your draft.

 

TIA.

[NAn 39]

just to give everyone a heads up... i dont think hellotehre will be particpating this year. ive been proxy-pickign for him in his 2 dynasty rookie drafts this week. hes doing a job where he moves a lot, and he currently doesnt really have net access, but for a dollar a minute. he hoped to do the mock, but esp with the early start, i think hes out.

 

the last post i see from -jb- (our alternate) said he was golfing today til 1 PT. i assume that means 3 central, ie in about a half hour. we'll wait awhile and see if he can take the reins. jb, if youre reading this, go ahead and make a pick. if we dont hear anything by 330 central (in an hour), then i'll make a proxy pick. we have clash's pick at 9, so you three guys at 10-12 try to stick around and we can hopefully nail your corner picks late this afternoon.

 

 

What bomb said.

 

jb's been real good about checking in, so expect him here soon to make a pick...then we have clash's pick, so we should be on to RC, V4E, Miller soon, then on to round 2!

[football_scooter 0]

for the second time, please mind your own business and stay out of our threads, or risk the threat of us going through and tearing apart your draft below, because there are a lot of BRUTAL picks in there. you may comment in the thread at the main board, otherwise please respect our privacy just as you have expected for your draft.

 

TIA.

 

 

Actually, we welcome outside commentary - that's why it's posted below. We just frown upon

1. naming players not yet picked

2. giving advice to a guy on the clock (e.g. "you ought to take so-and-so here, I think he's a steal")

 

I haven't disrespected your draft or picks once, so lighten up, Francis.

 

 

Seriously though - if this is a closed mock draft commentary, please let me know and I will be happy to respect your privacy.

[Da Bomb 0]

well... i guess we put in a pick for him? seems to me lamont jordan is the consensus next guy off the board.

 

Seriously though - if this is a closed mock draft commentary, please let me know and I will be happy to respect your privacy.

 

just like with the june mock, we welcome all sorts of commentary, just do it in the post on the main board. the threads in here should be just for the 12 participants. thanks!

[remote controller 143]

well... i guess we put in a pick for him? seems to me lamont jordan is the consensus next guy off the board.

 

 

Fire away with the Jordan pick.

[Da Bomb 0]

remote, can you put his pick in as jordan then? then i'll put in clash's pick and you can pick.

[remote controller 143]

remote, can you put his pick in as jordan then? then i'll put in clash's pick and you can pick.

give me a sec and I will

 

 

Is it okay by NAn?

[Da Bomb 0]

give me a sec and I will

Is it okay by NAn?

 

it will be alright, jb can take over after this pick. we need to get moving so those of you at the end who have been waiting all day can get your picks in. because of the hellothere mishap, jb ddnt know til last minute about this pick. im sure he'll be happy to start up in the 2nd at this spot.

[NAn 39]

again, what bomb said.

 

so let's post clash's pick RBrown from his 'list' here in this thread, then RC.

 

V4E, Miller usually jump in pretty quick so we could be back to Clash in next couple hours.

[remote controller 143]

I actually flipped a coin on Rudi and Caddy. I really did enjoy the show on Gruden last night on the football channell, and feel that caddy will perform well this year. Rudi was a safer pick, given a healthy Palmer though.