Round 11-12 Commentary

[FantasyKing 4]

Discuss.

[Fumbleweed 422]

Unless Braylon Edwards gets healthy in a hurry, I think Jurevicius could surprise. Northcutt certainly won't be a high reception guy and Winslow is pretty green, so somebody's gotta catch those passes...........

[FantasyKing 4]

Unless Braylon Edwards gets healthy in a hurry, I think Jurevicius could surprise. Northcutt certainly won't be a high reception guy and Winslow is pretty green, so somebody's gotta catch those passes...........

 

I definitely slept on JJ and forgot that Braylon might not start the year.

 

As for my pick - LJ Smith

 

Time to punish those sitting back and waiting on a TE to fall to them cheaply. MUAHAHHAHAHAHA

[ShaneFalco 0]

I definitely slept on JJ and forgot that Braylon might not start the year.

 

As for my pick - LJ Smith

 

Time to punish those sitting back and waiting on a TE to fall to them cheaply. MUAHAHHAHAHAHA

 

 

[Da Bomb 0]

yeah, i strongly considered lj smith. honestly if i had known i could get him at 10.10, i like him enough that i wouldve skipped shockey altogether in the 5th. hes my sleeper TE this year and i have him as the real #1 "receiver" in philly with a good shot for over 700 yards and 6 TDs -- only a couple ppg worse than shockey for me. great pickup.

 

the WR i mentioned is still available, and that surprises me. but i hate him, and i should probably back up chester taylor just in case. besides, we all know how i like to take mewelde moore, wait until he has one or two good starts, and then trade him for a stud WR like torry holt. he rounds out my RBs quite nicely.

[Da Bomb 0]

guys - nan sent me his pick last time and it just struck me that he may not be in for awhile. i'll be up another 2-3 hours tonight, so if youre one of the next few and want to leave me a short list, that would be fine.

 

[Fumbleweed 422]

I'm big on handcuffs, so the Mewelde pick makes good sense.......

[Da Bomb 0]

wonder where nan went... he sticked the posts and didnt make his pick.

[NAn 39]

wonder where nan went... he sticked the posts and didnt make his pick.

 

Sorry, had to put the little girl to sleep, pick made.

 

I did some analysis (that's still being taken into account in Waldman's recent '3rd Year Wr' Theory article), where 71% of WRs who had 50-59recs/700-799yds, 'broke out' the following year for approx 150 ff pts (1000/7).

 

Formula predicted Walker, AJ, Fitz prior to their breakout years.

 

Candidates this year include: Parker/Curtis/Givens

 

With all that said, if we hold true to the 71% more or less, feel Curtis has best chance (why I like him alot this year), with Parker/Givens being a toss up.

Parker has proven reliable but has Rivers throwing to him and at best is likely 3rd option on the team.

Givens is switching teams, unless a very good/elite wr usually not a good thing.

 

Still, even if he can do say 65/850/5 I'd be fine with him and if he breakous all the better.

[Da Bomb 0]

i had been wondering about said formula. whats it got to say about roy williams or particularly lee evans?

 

and im a little confused about the other 2. david givens has been in the league 4 years now and hasnt ever done much, plus hes on a totally new team this year, so its hard to foresee a breakout there. and kevin curtis, i think you may have missed the boat on him breaking out -- that was last year. he was a top 10 or 15 WR most of the year before trailing off the last few weeks. if you remember, i traded out-for-the-season priest holmes for him in IBL last year.

 

like the parker pick btw.

[Da Bomb 0]

looks like we're back in action!!!

 

[ShaneFalco 0]

Going out for a run, should be back in less than an hour. If danzone gets back and you really need my pick, take..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(1) Dallas Clark

(2) Vernon Davis

[remote controller 133]

I'll be out for just over an hour. Doesn't look to be a problem.

[NAn 39]

Bomb, you around?

 

Thought you may be out for a bit?

 

No prob, just want to let everyone know where they can send lists to: me or you.

[Da Bomb 0]

Bomb, you around?

 

Thought you may be out for a bit?

 

No prob, just want to let everyone know where they can send lists to: me or you.

 

im back now, lists are fine.

[Erb047 0]

Bout time these are back up...

 

 

As far as Jurevicius goes, I strongly considered him with my 10th pick but went with Curtis instead. Bottom line for me was that Bulger is throwing to Curtis, and Frye to JJ. Last year JJ had 10 TDs, but Darrell JAckson was out and Hasslebeck trusted JJ. I am not sure how Frye and JJ will go, and prior to last season, JJs numbers aren't stellar.

 

 

Went with Meshawn here. I think he's a solid pick, didn't think he would last this long. Thought he would go in the 10th.

 

 

I love that LJ smith pick. He and Cooley were the two TEs I wanted if I skipped out on Heap.

[Da Bomb 0]

do we wait on jb, or make a pick and hope to get moving here?

[Fumbleweed 422]

Need to fix the picks thread for one so that jb knows it's his turn..........

[-jb- 0]

do we wait on jb, or make a pick and hope to get moving here?

 

i'm here.

[Fumbleweed 422]

Hey, NAn, you might fix the picks thread so that Clash will know he's up...............

[NAn 39]

i had been wondering about said formula. whats it got to say about roy williams or particularly lee evans?

 

I was trying to get some definitive answer to the ff urban legend of the '3rd Year WR Theory'.

 

It was involved (went back 20yrs), but here's the key stats:

 

Breakout WRs from 1983-2003 
Year  Percent 
2nd 25% 
3rd 27% 
4th 23% 
5th 10% 
6th 3% 
7th 5% 
8th 4% 
9th 0% 
10th 2% 
11th 0 
12th 1%

 

52% of the receivers broke out between years 2 or 3.

75% of the receivers broke out between years 2-4.

85% of the receivers broke out between years 2-5.

 

So, technically the theory is true but not by much over years 2 or 4.

Obvious key stats is if wr hasn't broke out by yr5, only 15% they ever will, if hasn't broke out by yr8 only 3% they ever will.

 

The benchmarks and data were as follows as far as predicting:

70.1% of WRs 'broke out' (140-150+ ff pts) year after they had 50-59recs/700-799yds

 

That 70.1% includes hits/misses last couple years:

Hits: Fitz/Walker/AJ/Houzmanzadah/Stallworth/Wayne

Misses: RWilliams/Porter/Givens/Northcutt

 

So to answer your questions Bomb:

-My bad on Givens, he was suppose to break out last year

-RWilliams was a miss

-Evans actually missed both parts of my criteria...he had yardage but only 48recs each year so not part of my sample (I know, just 2recs but I had to make cutoff on my sample at some pt over 20+yrs)

 

Candidates this year include:

Eric Parker

Joe Jurvicious (though already had 129pts last year)

David Givens ('missed' previously)

 

Candidates just outside sample, but close this year include:

Kevin Curtis

Lee Evans ('missed' previously)

Roy Williams ('missed' previously)

 

 

 

Hey, NAn, you might fix the picks thread so that Clash will know he's up...............

 

sorry, late on this...thanks bomb.

[remote controller 133]

I'm back. Give me a minute.

[Da Bomb 0]

nan - doesnt that mean that evans was 2 extra receptions away from being the perfect breakout candidate in each of the last two years?

 

evans is just a guy im super high on this year. i dont understand why people are sleeping on him. hes every bit as talented as roy williams, he has less competition for passes, and hes had just as many TDs and more yardage both seasons so far. im trying to see if theres any merit to me being so high, or if i need to be more careful moving forward with him.

 

re: jurevicius - doesnt it bode poorly for him that 0% of receivers in the last 20 years have broken out in their 9th season?

 

re: givens - im wondering if you have the list of breakout players from the last 20 years, if any of them have ever been in their first year on a new team?

[Fumbleweed 422]

nan - doesnt that mean that evans was 2 extra receptions away from being the perfect breakout candidate in each of the last two years?

 

evans is just a guy im super high on this year. i dont understand why people are sleeping on him. hes every bit as talented as roy williams, he has less competition for passes, and hes had just as many TDs and more yardage both seasons so far. im trying to see if theres any merit to me being so high, or if i need to be more careful moving forward with him.

 

re: jurevicius - doesnt it bode poorly for him that 0% of receivers in the last 20 years have broken out in their 9th season?

 

re: givens - im wondering if you have the list of breakout players from the last 20 years, if any of them have ever been in their first year on a new team?

 

Joe Horn "broke out" his first year with a new team.......when he went from the Chiefs to the Saints. There are probably others, too, but Horn is the no-brainer in that category.

 

See:

 

1996 kan | 10 | 1 8 8.0 0 | 2 30 15.0 0 |

| 1997 kan | 8 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 2 65 32.5 0 |

| 1998 kan | 16 | 1 0 0.0 0 | 14 198 14.1 1 |

| 1999 kan | 16 | 2 15 7.5 0 | 35 586 16.7 6 |

| 2000 nor | 16 | 6 18 3.0 0 | 94 1340 14.3 8 |

| 2001 nor | 16 | 1 4 4.0 0 | 83 1265 15.2 9 |

| 2002 nor | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 88 1312 14.9 7 |

| 2003 nor | 15 | 2 15 7.5 0 | 78 973 12.5 10 |

| 2004 nor | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 94 1399 14.9 11 |

| 2005 nor | 13 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 49 654 13.3 1 |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| TOTAL | 142 | 13 60 4.6 0 | 539 7822 14.5 53 |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

[Da Bomb 0]

wow, yeah id say horn qualifies.

[NAn 39]

nan - doesnt that mean that evans was 2 extra receptions away from being the perfect breakout candidate in each of the last two years?

 

evans is just a guy im super high on this year. i dont understand why people are sleeping on him. hes every bit as talented as roy williams, he has less competition for passes, and hes had just as many TDs and more yardage both seasons so far. im trying to see if theres any merit to me being so high, or if i need to be more careful moving forward with him.

 

re: jurevicius - doesnt it bode poorly for him that 0% of receivers in the last 20 years have broken out in their 9th season?

 

re: givens - im wondering if you have the list of breakout players from the last 20 years, if any of them have ever been in their first year on a new team?

 

you're killing me by tempting me to go back and look at the new team thing.

 

and LOL, I was just thinking...how long has Jurvicious been in the league?

 

I think Evans and Curtis have very good chances of 'breaking out' this year, with RWilliams/Parker outside shots.

 

What I may go back and look at is if a player did 'miss' after my rec/ydage critieria...did they ever breakout and when.

 

Dammit, I was trying to go easy on the ff this year.

[Fumbleweed 422]

Go back and look at the career of Ed McCaffrey. Jurevicius's career so far mirrors that of McCaffrey somewhat. McCaffrey had his "breakout" in his NINTH season. He went on to have 3 or 4 more after that before the famous pre-9/11 breaking of the leg on MNF.

 

The obvious comparison between the two receivers would be their size, skin color, and style of play. Do I think Jurevicius could be the next McCaffrey as such. Sure.....but I wish he had John Elway throwing to him instead of Charlie Frye.

[Erb047 0]

Go back and look at the career of Ed McCaffrey. Jurevicius's career so far mirrors that of McCaffrey somewhat. McCaffrey had his "breakout" in his NINTH season. He went on to have 3 or 4 more after that before the famous pre-9/11 breaking of the leg on MNF.

*shudders* still remember watching that McCaffrey break happen....*shudders again*

The obvious comparison between the two receivers would be their size, skin color, and style of play. Do I think Jurevicius could be the next McCaffrey as such. Sure.....but I wish he had John Elway throwing to him instead of Charlie Frye.

 

 

I love JJ, and he's got great hands and just manages to get open, but I dont trust Frye....which is why I took Curtis. Here's hoping the formula is right

[Vikings4ever 496]

Heading out for about an hour, sent my picks to Bomb.

[NAn 39]

Go back and look at the career of Ed McCaffrey. Jurevicius's career so far mirrors that of McCaffrey somewhat. McCaffrey had his "breakout" in his NINTH season.

 

You had me double guessing my research there fumble, actually was his 8th season.

(not nitpicking just thought I screwed up on my research)

 

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 1991 nyg | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 16 146 9.1 0 |

| 1992 nyg | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 49 610 12.4 5 |

| 1993 nyg | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 27 335 12.4 2 |

| 1994 sfo | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 11 131 11.9 2 |

| 1995 den | 16 | 1 -1 -1.0 0 | 39 477 12.2 2 |

| 1996 den | 15 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 48 553 11.5 7 |

| 1997 den | 15 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 45 590 13.1 8 |

| 1998 den | 15 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 64 1053 16.5 10 |

| 1999 den | 15 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 71 1018 14.3 7 |

| 2000 den | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 101 1317 13.0 9 |

| 2001 den | 1 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 6 94 15.7 1 |

| 2002 den | 16 | 2 22 11.0 0 | 69 903 13.1 2 |

| 2003 den | 12 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 19 195 10.3 0 |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| TOTAL | 185 | 3 21 7.0 0 | 565 7422 13.1 55 |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

[Da Bomb 0]

Dammit, I was trying to go easy on the ff this year.

 

haha so was i nan... so was i...

[remote controller 133]

Sorry for the wait. I got called out right after I said I was back, but it was a false alarm. Anyway, I was certainly eying Stevens and was hoping Troupe would fall first. Not a mind blowing pick by any means, but if you pull one of them off at this point in the draft ,you are a genius. He was the best backup TE I had left on my board.

 

I was kicking around Clayton, a Qb, and a Rb also.

[Da Bomb 0]

btw, whoever took keyshawn, nice backup WR pick this late. he was the other guy i considered with antonio bryant. have keyshawn for a solid 900/6. nothing great, but a very solid WR4 to have and a guy you can plug in for 5-7 points any given week.

[Erb047 0]

btw, whoever took keyshawn, nice backup WR pick this late. he was the other guy i considered with antonio bryant. have keyshawn for a solid 900/6. nothing great, but a very solid WR4 to have and a guy you can plug in for 5-7 points any given week.

 

 

That was yours truly. Thanks for the cred. I believe the same....

 

 

Anyways Bomb I emailed you my picks for the next round and explained my situation for this weekend. YGM bro, thanks again.

[thedanzone 2]

I was hoping to nab Clayton in the 12th round and was thinking about him in the 11th, but passed. His ADP is 13th round so I thought I had a chance in the 12th.

 

[Miller_Time_21 0]

Sorry guys, we just had a tornado warning here and got sent to the basement, just got back to my desk and have 800 things to sort out. Will try to find time before I leave to make a couple picks. Thanks for you patience.

[Fumbleweed 422]

You had me double guessing my research there fumble, actually was his 8th season.

(not nitpicking just thought I screwed up on my research)

 

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 1991 nyg | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 16 146 9.1 0 |

| 1992 nyg | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 49 610 12.4 5 |

| 1993 nyg | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 27 335 12.4 2 |

| 1994 sfo | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 11 131 11.9 2 |

| 1995 den | 16 | 1 -1 -1.0 0 | 39 477 12.2 2 |

| 1996 den | 15 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 48 553 11.5 7 |

| 1997 den | 15 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 45 590 13.1 8 |

| 1998 den | 15 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 64 1053 16.5 10 |

| 1999 den | 15 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 71 1018 14.3 7 |

| 2000 den | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 101 1317 13.0 9 |

| 2001 den | 1 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 6 94 15.7 1 |

| 2002 den | 16 | 2 22 11.0 0 | 69 903 13.1 2 |

| 2003 den | 12 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 19 195 10.3 0 |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| TOTAL | 185 | 3 21 7.0 0 | 565 7422 13.1 55 |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

 

So it was...so it was.

[thedanzone 2]

My wife's grandma just passed away and the next couple of days will be focused on that. I should be alright for the rest of the night and tommorrow morning, but after that who knows until Sunday.

 

I'll post another message late tommorrow morning to give an update on my schedule at which time you guys could make a consensus pick for me.

[Miller_Time_21 0]

My wife's grandma just passed away and the next couple of days will be focused on that. I should be alright for the rest of the night and tommorrow morning, but after that who knows until Sunday.

 

I'll post another message late tommorrow morning to give an update on my schedule at which time you guys could make a consensus pick for me.

My thoughts are with you and your family TDZ, take care.

[Da Bomb 0]

My wife's grandma just passed away and the next couple of days will be focused on that. I should be alright for the rest of the night and tommorrow morning, but after that who knows until Sunday.

 

I'll post another message late tommorrow morning to give an update on my schedule at which time you guys could make a consensus pick for me.

 

take care of your stuff, dz. let us know how we can help. i speak for us all, i know, when i say that your family is in our prayers.

 

on a more practical note... erb is going to be busy this weekend, and i will be busy saturday for part and unavailable after that... but we only have 4 and a half rounds left. lets just finish this thing before the work day ends tomorrow. its just spare RB/WR parts at this point, so everyone just try to send lists or stay on top of it and we can blitzkreig the rest of this.