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davebg

Why I like LT over SA this year.

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OK, so most (every?) draft board I've seen has LJ #1, SA #2 and LT #3.

 

Based upon what he did in the amount of playing time he got last year, LJ is clearly the #1 overall pick. Whether you think the Chiefs O will tak a hit due to the line getting old/losing palyers or the fact that Herm Edwards makes a much better cheerleader than coach (especiall on O), it doesn't matter. On potential and upside alone, LJ has to be #1.

 

This leads us to the #2 and #3 picks. So, let me make my case for LT over SA.

 

Why I don't like SA this year:

 

First, he has no upside. Last year was a monster season. Does anyone really think that he will put up better numbers this year than he did last year? I don't. I think best case scenario is that he duplicates his numbers from last year...and that's best case. It is even more likely that his numbers will drop from last year. That is the very definition of buying high.

 

Now, let's discuss why I think it's even more likely that his numbers will slide. Big loss on the O line when Hutchinson left. Seattle then compensated for the loss on the O side of the ball by getting Burleson. So, to sum up, decreased talent for running the ball, while increasing talent to throw the ball. That equals less opportunities for the running game and SA.

 

Finally, SA is and always has been a selfish pr|ck. He finally got his big contract. I just don't think SA has the character to continue to produce at the level he did last year w/out that chip on his shoulder and a contract year to motivate him.

 

Why I like LT this year:

 

Again, the first thing I look at is upside. LT has it. Even after what was considered an off year for LT, he's considered top 3. There is room for improvement. There is motivation (on the part of LT) for improvement, as I'm sure he would like to reclaim his spot as the top RB in the NFL.

 

Many people will point to the inexperience that SD has at the QB position this year as a reason why LT might struggle a bit this year. That is a valid point. I think anyone who drafts LT this year can expect to have a few promising drives end in a turn-over, rather than a TD. However, last season, one of the biggest reasons for LT's drop in numbers was his absence from the passing game. This is where having a QB w/no NFL starts will actually be a benefit for LT (from a FF perspective.) A sure-handed RB out of the backfield is a young QB's best friend and I predict we will see LT take a 1 yard dump-off from Rivers and turn it into a long gain on numerous occasions.

 

Now, this is not to say that LJ, LT and SA will finish 1, 2 and 3 in the league as far as RBs go. In fact, it's rather unlikely, as from year to year the top 10 (FF players) tends to have a decent amount of upheaval...roughly half of the top 10 in one year weren't part of the previous year's top 10. It would not suprise me to see a guy like Portis put up better numbers than 1 or 2 (maybe even all?) of the guys discussed above. In fact, my personal rankings have LJ #1, LT #2a, Portis #2b as the top 3 players to draft, but that's just my own opinion.

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I'm with you. I'd take LT over SA. LT was awesome pre-Brees and Gates and he'll continue to be post-Brees.

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I agree with much of the assessment here, though not the Portis ranking at #2b, but continue to be worried about an unproven Rivers at QB. If he stumbles early, defenses are gonna crowd the line and make it difficult for LT2 to get going. Just my $0.02.....

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OK, so most (every?) draft board I've seen has LJ #1, SA #2 and LT #3.

 

Based upon what he did in the amount of playing time he got last year, LJ is clearly the #1 overall pick. Whether you think the Chiefs O will tak a hit due to the line getting old/losing palyers or the fact that Herm Edwards makes a much better cheerleader than coach (especiall on O), it doesn't matter. On potential and upside alone, LJ has to be #1.

 

This leads us to the #2 and #3 picks. So, let me make my case for LT over SA.

 

Why I don't like SA this year:

 

First, he has no upside. Last year was a monster season. Does anyone really think that he will put up better numbers this year than he did last year? I don't. I think best case scenario is that he duplicates his numbers from last year...and that's best case. It is even more likely that his numbers will drop from last year. That is the very definition of buying high.

 

Now, let's discuss why I think it's even more likely that his numbers will slide. Big loss on the O line when Hutchinson left. Seattle then compensated for the loss on the O side of the ball by getting Burleson. So, to sum up, decreased talent for running the ball, while increasing talent to throw the ball. That equals less opportunities for the running game and SA.

 

Finally, SA is and always has been a selfish pr|ck. He finally got his big contract. I just don't think SA has the character to continue to produce at the level he did last year w/out that chip on his shoulder and a contract year to motivate him.

 

Why I like LT this year:

 

Again, the first thing I look at is upside. LT has it. Even after what was considered an off year for LT, he's considered top 3. There is room for improvement. There is motivation (on the part of LT) for improvement, as I'm sure he would like to reclaim his spot as the top RB in the NFL.

 

Many people will point to the inexperience that SD has at the QB position this year as a reason why LT might struggle a bit this year. That is a valid point. I think anyone who drafts LT this year can expect to have a few promising drives end in a turn-over, rather than a TD. However, last season, one of the biggest reasons for LT's drop in numbers was his absence from the passing game. This is where having a QB w/no NFL starts will actually be a benefit for LT (from a FF perspective.) A sure-handed RB out of the backfield is a young QB's best friend and I predict we will see LT take a 1 yard dump-off from Rivers and turn it into a long gain on numerous occasions.

 

Now, this is not to say that LJ, LT and SA will finish 1, 2 and 3 in the league as far as RBs go. In fact, it's rather unlikely, as from year to year the top 10 (FF players) tends to have a decent amount of upheaval...roughly half of the top 10 in one year weren't part of the previous year's top 10. It would not suprise me to see a guy like Portis put up better numbers than 1 or 2 (maybe even all?) of the guys discussed above. In fact, my personal rankings have LJ #1, LT #2a, Portis #2b as the top 3 players to draft, but that's just my own opinion.

 

:(

 

 

 

Why I don't like SA this year:

 

First, he has no upside

 

Dude 28 focking TD's even if he goes for 22 TD's this year thats still better than LT has ever done !

 

So, to sum up, decreased talent for running the ball, while increasing talent to throw the ball. That equals less opportunities for the running game and SA.

:banana:

 

I just don't think SA has the character to continue to produce at the level he did last year

 

:wacko: other than ###### about Holgren taking him out to have hasselbeck take a 2 yard plunge in 04 when he was 1 yard from the rushing title ( MANY OTHER LESS CHARACTER PLAYERS woulda reacted much more angry ) - tell me when has he been a selfish ###### ? he was the greatest RB last year and wanted #1 Money - never has he been a problem off the field . Other than alot of self confindence for a RB he is pretty much as " high character " as you can get.. ( unless of course I am totally missing something :mad: ) .

 

As for LT maybe he will have a great year. But try an take a look at LT's Number to end last season ! Kinda average . W/O brees it might be tougher on him especially since the man has carried a million carries the last 3 years.

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Pretty sure LT's not going to throw for 3 TDs again this year so you can pretty much knock 20 points off his total from last year right there.

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Why LT could be the best: I think he actually is the best running back in the league.

Why he may not be: Football is a team sport, and his OLine is nothing spectacular and a QB with virtually no experience is taking the snaps.

 

Why LJ Could be the best: He simply was the best fantasy producer I have ever seen when he got the carries.

Why he may not: His team has gone through a lot of changes, losing his HC, OC, LT, and FB... all more than solid at what they do.

 

Why SA may do the best: On the best team with the best complimentary passing game, in a weaker division.

Why he may not. Lost Hutch, is on the cover of Madden, and is in danger of the Superbowl hangover.

 

 

My analysis:

 

LJ - Highest ceiling, but also the most ???'s - more of a gamble

 

LT - in the middle of risk/reward

 

SA - Probably the safest bet, but IMO doesn't have the ceiling that LT and LJ have.

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OK, so most (every?) draft board I've seen has LJ #1, SA #2 and LT #3.

 

Based upon what he did in the amount of playing time he got last year, LJ is clearly the #1 overall pick. Whether you think the Chiefs O will tak a hit due to the line getting old/losing palyers or the fact that Herm Edwards makes a much better cheerleader than coach (especiall on O), it doesn't matter. On potential and upside alone, LJ has to be #1.

 

This leads us to the #2 and #3 picks. So, let me make my case for LT over SA.

 

Why I don't like SA this year:

 

First, he has no upside. Last year was a monster season. Does anyone really think that he will put up better numbers this year than he did last year? I don't. I think best case scenario is that he duplicates his numbers from last year...and that's best case. It is even more likely that his numbers will drop from last year. That is the very definition of buying high.

 

Now, let's discuss why I think it's even more likely that his numbers will slide. Big loss on the O line when Hutchinson left. Seattle then compensated for the loss on the O side of the ball by getting Burleson. So, to sum up, decreased talent for running the ball, while increasing talent to throw the ball. That equals less opportunities for the running game and SA.

 

Finally, SA is and always has been a selfish pr|ck. He finally got his big contract. I just don't think SA has the character to continue to produce at the level he did last year w/out that chip on his shoulder and a contract year to motivate him.

 

Why I like LT this year:

 

Again, the first thing I look at is upside. LT has it. Even after what was considered an off year for LT, he's considered top 3. There is room for improvement. There is motivation (on the part of LT) for improvement, as I'm sure he would like to reclaim his spot as the top RB in the NFL.

 

Many people will point to the inexperience that SD has at the QB position this year as a reason why LT might struggle a bit this year. That is a valid point. I think anyone who drafts LT this year can expect to have a few promising drives end in a turn-over, rather than a TD. However, last season, one of the biggest reasons for LT's drop in numbers was his absence from the passing game. This is where having a QB w/no NFL starts will actually be a benefit for LT (from a FF perspective.) A sure-handed RB out of the backfield is a young QB's best friend and I predict we will see LT take a 1 yard dump-off from Rivers and turn it into a long gain on numerous occasions.

 

Now, this is not to say that LJ, LT and SA will finish 1, 2 and 3 in the league as far as RBs go. In fact, it's rather unlikely, as from year to year the top 10 (FF players) tends to have a decent amount of upheaval...roughly half of the top 10 in one year weren't part of the previous year's top 10. It would not suprise me to see a guy like Portis put up better numbers than 1 or 2 (maybe even all?) of the guys discussed above. In fact, my personal rankings have LJ #1, LT #2a, Portis #2b as the top 3 players to draft, but that's just my own opinion.

 

In ppr leagues LT is the pick. However, your Seahawk analysis shows you really don't follow the team. You think they will throw more just because of Burleson? While Holmgren does indeed use the pass to set up the run, he has done this forever and the fact that Burleson is coming on board will in no way decrease work for Alexander. As for losing Hutch, yeah that stings but the team has very good young depth along the OL and so I think replacing a guard, even an all pro guard, will not be that difficult, especially with Walter Jones cleaning up next to whoimever is starting in Hutch's place. LT may still be the better pick to some (in PPR leagues only IMO), but not for the reasons you give.

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but that's just my own opinion.

 

interesting how you're own opinion exactly mirrors that of the guy on NFL network last night who explained why he'd take LT2 1st overall instead of LJ.

 

so eerily similar that I think you watched it, then posted this.

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interesting how you're own opinion exactly mirrors that of the guy on NFL network last night who explained why he'd take LT2 1st overall instead of LJ.

 

so eerily similar that I think you watched it, then posted this.

Really? That's funny b/c I called and emailed my cable company this morning b/c they don't carry NFL Network yet and I wanted to see if they are going to add it before the season starts. :thumbsup:

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Really? That's funny b/c I called and emailed my cable company this morning b/c they don't carry NFL Network yet and I wanted to see if they are going to add it before the season starts. :wall:

 

coincedence then...you should be working for them! (and hey, then you'd get a free subscription, so everyone wins!)

:thumbsdown:

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Finally, SA is and always has been a selfish pr|ck. He finally got his big contract. I just don't think SA has the character to continue to produce at the level he did last year w/out that chip on his shoulder and a contract year to motivate him.

 

This is some slanderous untrue sh!+. Every interview I have ever read or seen on tape with Alexander, he is constantly talking team, and not self. He is the most humble NFL player I have ever seen speak. He never says it's all about him like TO does, but it's about his team. If you don't think he will not produce numbers wise, fine. But to slander a good man's name like Alexander has established for himself through his team first attitude is just wrong. And by the way, Alexander will score 5-6 more total TD's than LT will.

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:wall:

Dude 28 focking TD's even if he goes for 22 TD's this year thats still better than LT has ever done !

:wall:

 

 

 

:wacko: other than ###### about Holgren taking him out to have hasselbeck take a 2 yard plunge in 04 when he was 1 yard from the rushing title ( MANY OTHER LESS CHARACTER PLAYERS woulda reacted much more angry ) - tell me when has he been a selfish ###### ? he was the greatest RB last year and wanted #1 Money - never has he been a problem off the field . Other than alot of self confindence for a RB he is pretty much as " high character " as you can get.. ( unless of course I am totally missing something :thumbsdown: ) .

 

 

Don't listen to Moz, he forgot to add the disclaimer "He's awesome because I own him in my keeper league"

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This is some slanderous untrue sh!+. Every interview I have ever read or seen on tape with Alexander, he is constantly talking team, and not self. He is the most humble NFL player I have ever seen speak. He never says it's all about him like TO does, but it's about his team. If you don't think he will not produce numbers wise, fine. But to slander a good man's name like Alexander has established for himself through his team first attitude is just wrong. And by the way, Alexander will score 5-6 more total TD's than LT will.

 

 

agreed -- why he said that I got no clue -- Alexander is one of the greatest High character guys in the league.

 

If a coach focked you out of 2 yards to lead the league in rushing you be irrate too ! ! Damn Alexanders reaction to it was really mild compared to say majority of RBs out there.

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Don't listen to Moz, he forgot to add the disclaimer "He's awesome because I own him in my keeper league"

 

you ought to see the rat's arse deal he pulled to get him, too. :P

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agreed -- why he said that I got no clue -- Alexander is one of the greatest High character guys in the league.

 

If a coach focked you out of 2 yards to lead the league in rushing you be irrate too ! ! Damn Alexanders reaction to it was really mild compared to say majority of RBs out there.

 

True. And all you have to do is look at Alexander's career numbers to understand why he should be one of the highest, if not the highest paid RB in the league. His production on the field of play speaks for itself, so Alexander doesn't have to.

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Don't listen to Moz, he forgot to add the disclaimer "He's awesome because I own him in my keeper league"

 

 

:P

 

you ought to see the rat's arse deal he pulled to get him, too. :P

 

isn't there a statue of limitations in effect here ? :ninja:

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:lol:

Dude 28 focking TD's even if he goes for 22 TD's this year thats still better than LT has ever done !

:wacko:

 

 

 

:wacko: other than ###### about Holgren taking him out to have hasselbeck take a 2 yard plunge in 04 when he was 1 yard from the rushing title ( MANY OTHER LESS CHARACTER PLAYERS woulda reacted much more angry ) - tell me when has he been a selfish ###### ? he was the greatest RB last year and wanted #1 Money - never has he been a problem off the field . Other than alot of self confindence for a RB he is pretty much as " high character " as you can get.. ( unless of course I am totally missing something :cheers: ) .

 

As for LT maybe he will have a great year. But try an take a look at LT's Number to end last season ! Kinda average . W/O brees it might be tougher on him especially since the man has carried a million carries the last 3 years.

 

 

Thank you.

My thoughts exactly. :banana:

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This is some slanderous untrue sh!+. Every interview I have ever read or seen on tape with Alexander, he is constantly talking team, and not self. He is the most humble NFL player I have ever seen speak. He never says it's all about him like TO does, but it's about his team. If you don't think he will not produce numbers wise, fine. But to slander a good man's name like Alexander has established for himself through his team first attitude is just wrong. And by the way, Alexander will score 5-6 more total TD's than LT will.

 

Yeah, let's ignore him throwing a huge hissy when he didn't get the TD carry that Hasselbeck did 2 years ago. Nevermind the fact Hasselbeck actually scored, but Alexander wanted his individual rushing title and made sure the media knew about it. That's definitely a team-first attitude. I'm not sure how he's "constantly talking team" when he did crap like that just one offseason ago.

 

Sure he talks team now...he finally got paid.

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agreed -- why he said that I got no clue -- Alexander is one of the greatest High character guys in the league.

 

If a coach focked you out of 2 yards to lead the league in rushing you be irrate too ! ! Damn Alexanders reaction to it was really mild compared to say majority of RBs out there.

 

 

Actually Alexander should have been ticked off at the Seahawk D that day. Holmgren took the shite for the 2 yards and Alexander got labeled as selfish but if the Seahaw D could have gotten the Matt Schaub led Falcon offense off the field in the final 6 minutes of the game Alexander would have won the rushing title. Blame the D. Holmy doidn't fock Alexander and Alexander isn't a selfish player.

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I'm with you. I'd take LT over SA. LT was awesome pre-Brees and Gates and he'll continue to be post-Brees.

 

I will have to go with the LT over SA. I just think last season was too good for Alexander. This will be one of those seasons that puts the universe back in balance for SA (what goes up...) Given, my reasoning isn't very scientific, but I think I am onto something.

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Dude 28 focking TD's even if he goes for 22 TD's this year thats still better than LT has ever done !

:ninja:

 

Tomlinson was good for 23 total TDs last year.

 

The last two years, Alexander's numbers have been awesome, but he was in a contract year both years, and now he's not. I don't see him approaching last year's numbers, especially without Hutch. I see more passing for Seattle this year than last, and more running for San Diego than last. I like LT #1 overall.

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This arguement is dumb. Just like how Football_Scooter think Vick is a scrub...DUMB!

The truth is, any of the top 3 guys wouldn't make that big of a difference on your team. Most leagues are won in round 3 to 7.

 

examples:

 

LJ in round 4 or 5 last year

LJ, Gates, Tiki or McGhaee in 04

Portis in 03

 

See my point.

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I'll be the odd one here and draft Alexander and his minimum of 20 tds.

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I'll be the odd one here and draft Alexander and his minimum of 20 tds.

 

And that will be a great pick!

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This arguement is dumb. Just like how Football_Scooter think Vick is a scrub...DUMB!

 

On the one hand I'm a bit flattered that my constant pwnage of you has gotten under your skin tot he point that you've now mentioned me twice in your first two posts back.

 

you got some mad man :rolleyes: going for me there.

 

On the other hand, you're a dolt, becaus I never said Vick was a scrub. I said he was a bad QB with an inaccurate arm and not a lot of touch. That he's a better RB and ill-suited for the position he's in.

 

the next time you feel like misquoting me, try the search feature - it's a tip.

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...402&hl=vick

 

arsehole => o

Map => [M]

 

Good luck!

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This is some slanderous untrue sh!+. Every interview I have ever read or seen on tape with Alexander, he is constantly talking team, and not self. He is the most humble NFL player I have ever seen speak. He never says it's all about him like TO does, but it's about his team. If you don't think he will not produce numbers wise, fine. But to slander a good man's name like Alexander has established for himself through his team first attitude is just wrong. And by the way, Alexander will score 5-6 more total TD's than LT will.

 

QFT. I went to school with SA. He was a model player in college, upstanding guy, and he is still that same guy in Seattle. Articulate, hard worker, no off-the-field problems to speak of. Didn't Vermeil call LJ out for his acting like a baby a year or two ago?

 

Given this and the fact that he bemoans Seattle's loss of Hutch while ignoring the Chiefs' loss of Willie Roaf AND John Welborn on its OL, it is clear that the OP doesn't know wtf he's talking about.

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On the one hand I'm a bit flattered that my constant pwnage of you has gotten under your skin tot he point that you've now mentioned me twice in your first two posts back.

 

you got some mad man :blink: going for me there.

 

On the other hand, you're a dolt, becaus I never said Vick was a scrub. I said he was a bad QB with an inaccurate arm and not a lot of touch. That he's a better RB and ill-suited for the position he's in.

 

the next time you feel like misquoting me, try the search feature - it's a tip.

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...402&hl=vick

 

arsehole => o

Map => [M]

 

Good luck!

 

:huh: Just a bit of fun to kick off the season!

I'm just playing with you scooter! Looking for a close relationship with you this season. Have a wonderfull weekend my man.

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I'd be very happy with either LT or SA but I'm wondering what SA's motivation will be like with the sweetheart $ deal. On the other hand, I've had LT the past 2 years in a redraft league & I'm worried the qb situation will hurt him. O.K., give me LJ & I'll stop whining.

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I'd be very happy with either LT or SA but I'm wondering what SA's motivation will be like with the sweetheart $ deal. On the other hand, I've had LT the past 2 years in a redraft league & I'm worried the qb situation will hurt him. O.K., give me LJ & I'll stop whining.

 

SA is all business on the football field. He always has been, from his record-breaking 294 yd performance against LSU in college until the last game of last season. If anyone can handle the pressure that his contract will likely bring, it's him.

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saying SA has te loweest ceiling is ridiculous. He defined ceiling last year. LJ has done ###### all over a full season so far, now no roaf as well i would take edge and other before LJ i cant believe his hype

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If anyone can handle the pressure that his contract will likely bring, it's him.

 

It's not about pressure, it's about desire. Did he still want it bad enough to do the extra work this offseason, and will he still want it bad enough to take the extra hits during the season? I'm not convinced.

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I'm just playing with you scooter! Looking for a close relationship with you this season. Have a wonderfull weekend my man.

 

 

 

Waaaaay too much mad man :rolleyes:

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Waaaaay too much mad man :cry:

 

2 Frisco guys talking about Mad Man :mad:

 

coincidence ? :o

 

 

:P

 

:thumbsdown:

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It's not about pressure, it's about desire. Did he still want it bad enough to do the extra work this offseason, and will he still want it bad enough to take the extra hits during the season? I'm not convinced.

 

What else does the guy have to do to "convince" you, since setting the rushing TD record obviously wasn't enough? Should he play linebacker? Coach special teams? Win an Academy Award?

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What else does the guy have to do to "convince" you, since setting the rushing TD record obviously wasn't enough? Should he play linebacker? Coach special teams? Win an Academy Award?

 

Great point. :thumbsdown:

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Hey don't get me wrong, I've seen more than a few guys go soft once they got their payday. I just don't think this guy is one of them. Do I think he's going to score another 28 TD's this season? No. Do I think he'll score 20+ and is worthy of top pick status? Absolutely. I base my opinion on what he's done, not what he has thus far failed to do.

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Hey don't get me wrong, I've seen more than a few guys go soft once they got their payday. I just don't think this guy is one of them.

 

Not only does he have his payday, but he has his rushing title and a bonus TD record to boot. Living in Seattle and hearing a lot of his interviews, he has never struck me as a guy who will give it his all regardless of the circumstances. Maybe I'm mostly just down on the guy after his ridiculous pouting about the rushing title last year, but it's more than that. I don't expect him to dramatically change into a soft runner, but I think there will be a subtle difference that will add up. I don't know how the offseason was but I'd bet he didn't prepare as rigorously. Might not take much to be the difference between healthy or hurt. And on gameday I don't see what could possibly motivate him as much as he was motivated last year. Unless losing the Super Bowl just made him want it that much more badly. Before the 2004 season I heard about how CMart had really set his mind to going the extra mile and worked harder than ever and we saw how that paid off for him. Since then it really made me think about the impact of whether guys just do what they need to do, or whether they step it up to that rare level.

 

Combine the motivation factor with everything else (aging, change in teammates, change in schedule) and his results could be dramatically different, as they often are for NFL players coming off a career year.

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I have Tomlinson as my #1 over Alexander and Johnson. Seattle and KC had arguable the best offensive lines last season, and there is no question that played a big role in the success their backs had last season. From my experience, aside from injury, an offensive line taking a step back is the biggest concern for a running back. AS and LJ each had significant losses on their respective lines this offseason, and I can't see that not having some impact this year.

 

In LJs case, the loss of Roaf is compounded by the loss of Al Saunders, his former offensive coordinator. I find it suprising that you hear virtually everyone sighting the addition of Saunders as a reason to be high on Clinton Portis, however rarely do you hear this mentioned as a knock on LJ. Well now you have.

 

I still have these guys as my top 3, but if we're talking about the #1 pick, I'm going to play it safe. LT has been the most consistent producer at the position over the past several years. He proves year after year that he is an elete back catching the ball out of the backfield as well as on the goalline. The only knock against him this year is having an inexperienced QB take over. But keep in mind, Rivers is not a rookie -this will be his 3rd year in the league. Additionally, this will likely force the staff to rely more heavily on the run, which could offset any potential setback due to the QB change. This is still a very good offense and it still runs through LT.

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