Why Drafting / Ranking / Tiers are ridiculous

[Keyser Sose 0]

After 2 weeks' results, here's who you SHOULD have drafted.

 

QB: Donovan McNabb should have gone before Manning, and Rex Grossman should have been the 4th QB picked.

 

RB: Instead of LJ, LT, and SA it should have gone Frank Gore, LT, Rudi, and Westbrook.

 

WR: Of course DONTE STALLWORTH is the #1 WR this year. Forget Steve Smith and Torry Holt. You should have grabbed Plax 2nd, Laverneus 3rd, Antonio Bryant 4th, and JERRICHO COTCHERY 5th!

 

OF COURSE! It's so obvious- didn't everyone have cheat sheets that had these guys in the 1st tier?

[Busted by the Feds 9]

After 2 weeks' results

 

You said it best.

[sharkie22 0]

After 2 weeks' results, here's who you SHOULD have drafted.

 

QB: Donovan McNabb should have gone before Manning, and Rex Grossman should have been the 4th QB picked.

 

RB: Instead of LJ, LT, and SA it should have gone Frank Gore, LT, Rudi, and Westbrook.

 

WR: Of course DONTE STALLWORTH is the #1 WR this year. Forget Steve Smith and Torry Holt. You should have grabbed Plax 2nd, Laverneus 3rd, Antonio Bryant 4th, and JERRICHO COTCHERY 5th!

 

OF COURSE! It's so obvious- didn't everyone have cheat sheets that had these guys in the 1st tier?

 

Don't forget TE Desmond Clark on his way to 80/ 1200/ 8 and taking over for Gates at the top of the list.

 

To answer your question my cheat sheets did have McNabb as the #3 QB and I had Coles between 15 and 20 for WR's and Gore finishing around #15 assuming he plays in 14 games. It was nice to wait on drafting these guys while I stuffed my roster with all the useless early round picks.

[FlaHawker 24]

After 2 weeks' results,

 

 

next...

[Dick Cheney 1]

next...

 

[Patsfan39 0]

After 2 weeks' results, here's who you SHOULD have drafted.

 

QB: Donovan McNabb should have gone before Manning, and Rex Grossman should have been the 4th QB picked.

 

RB: Instead of LJ, LT, and SA it should have gone Frank Gore, LT, Rudi, and Westbrook.

 

WR: Of course DONTE STALLWORTH is the #1 WR this year. Forget Steve Smith and Torry Holt. You should have grabbed Plax 2nd, Laverneus 3rd, Antonio Bryant 4th, and JERRICHO COTCHERY 5th!

 

OF COURSE! It's so obvious- didn't everyone have cheat sheets that had these guys in the 1st tier?

 

 

FF isn't won in the first two weeks of the season.

[joefry 0]

The tiers actually worked out beautifully for me. The purpose of them is not to predict the future, as no one can do that, but to recognize when value is to be had in the later rounds. In two years using them I have made some awesome late round picks that I may have glossed over in favor of the flavor of the month defense/kicker/TE/qb(all positions for which studs that can be had on the cheap). Last year LJ in the 6th, Fitz in the 9th. This year Gore in the 5th and Bryant in the 15th.

[Phurfur 70]

After 2 weeks' results,

 

It is stupid to analyse an entire Football season.

[Gepetto 1,469]

After 2 weeks' results, here's who you SHOULD have drafted.

 

QB: Donovan McNabb

 

I was targeting Donovan McNabb with pick 4.07, but he was taken at 4.01.

[ravenmad22 0]

This post confuses me. Are you saying I should just pick names out of a hat instead of drafting a team according to my projections?

[WR Guru 31]

Your overall premise is correct. Even the best preseason rankings will be substantailly wrong. It's a proven historical fact that there will be about a 50% turnover in the top 50 players from year to year. Good luck trying to figure out who's on the way up and who's on the way down. Hey, if it was easy it wouldn't be fun.

[cubbie5150 0]

FF isn't won in the first two weeks of the season.

 

Nor is it typically won solely b/c of early Rd picks... Every league I've ever won was b/c of the middle Rds, and getting late Rd value... Anyone counting solely on their first 2 -3 picks is asking for failure, IMO..

[L_O_D 1]

One phrase comes to mind when I read this post...

 

Ass Pirate

[gold_finger 0]

FF isn't won in the first two weeks of the season.

 

In one of my leagues, I picked Gore off the waiver wire.

[norseman 0]

This post confuses me. Are you saying I should just pick names out of a hat instead of drafting a team according to my projections?

No. What I think he's saying is that we should wait until after the NFL games have been played to select our rosters. Then we'll know which players are going to score the most points. Because, when we draft before the NFL season begins, we really don't know exactly how many points each player will actually score.

 

HTH

[madd futher mucker 36]

Your over-all premise is only slightly correct. As one who has NEVER had a team not make the playoffs in the last 4 years (8 for 8 teams including 2 championships), I can say that winning in fantasy football involves at least 5 components:

 

1. Good drafting - a. - Study the preseason games and TARGET certain players, not based on absolute stats, but based on how they looked when they were on the field, Pay attention to who gets hurt, who is moving up the depth chart, etc. Since most of us have time to watch very few pre-season games, use sites like this to provide 'scouting reports' for you. Use average draft positon analysis - there are 2 great sources - to figure out where your targets are likely to be selected. You don't want to 'reach' but you want to pull the trigger a little before they are likely to go. DO NOT JUST DRAFT PLAYERS IN THE ORDER OF THE AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION. Even worse, almost every league I've been in, whether money league or not - has a couple, sometimes more "magazine drafters". Magazine drafters never win fantasy leagues.

 

2. Good free agent and waiver wire management - be smart and quick to the wire and free agent pick-ups - know who is worth picking up. Don't fall in love with ANY of your players. So far this year, I've dropped Evans, Reg, Brown, and C Brown, in favor of Colston, Favre, and Dez Clark. Often a fast hook is better than dying with a big name non-producer. Analyze why he isn't producing and whether the conditions are likely to change anytime soon. Chambers is a stud, but Cpepp has got to get the ball to him - If you can trade for a steady B+ with a better situation (think Driver), perhaps you shoud do it - just an example. Use waiver wire rotation wisely. Only a few times per year does a stud hit the waiver wire. You want to be first up when it does. On the otherhand, know exactly when your waiver wire opens up. I've often gotten up at 4 am (yahoo league) to get the top pickups that cleared waivers before players in an earlier time zone got ot work and looked at who was left.

 

3. Good weekly roster management. Use average weekly cheat sheets as a guide as to who to start, but understand what the reasoning behind the recommendation is. For instance, this week in one league I played 4 players from 1 game (Favre, who was dropped after wk 1 and I picked up, Driver, McAllister, and Colston - another free agent pick-up). I just KNEW that game was gonna be a shoot-out.

 

4. Good trading skills. Be a proactive trader. Think uo and offer LOTS of trades - make them 'fair' - not extremely lopsided ones either - but ones that you feel will help your team. Only about 1 in 8 will be accepted, but NONE will be accepted if you get a reputation of screwing the other owner.

 

5. And lastly there is the luck factor. which is why, even though my playoff percentage is 100%, my championship percentage is only 25%. Good luck!

[norseman 0]

Your over-all premise is only slightly correct. As one who has NEVER had a team not make the playoffs in the last 4 years (8 for 8 teams including 2 championships), I can say that winning in fantasy football involves at least 5 components:

 

1. Good drafting - a. - Study the preseason games and TARGET certain players, not based on absolute stats, but based on how they looked when they were on the field, Pay attention to who gets hurt, who is moving up the depth chart, etc. Since most of us have time to watch very few pre-season games, use sites like this to provide 'scouting reports' for you. Use average draft positon analysis - there are 2 great sources - to figure out where your targets are likely to be selected. You don't want to 'reach' but you want to pull the trigger a little before they are likely to go. DO NOT JUST DRAFT PLAYERS IN THE ORDER OF THE AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION. Even worse, almost every league I've been in, whether money league or not - has a couple, sometimes more "magazine drafters". Magazine drafters never win fantasy leagues.

 

2. Good free agent and waiver wire management - be smart and quick to the wire and free agent pick-ups - know who is worth picking up. Don't fall in love with ANY of your players. So far this year, I've dropped Evans, Reg, Brown, and C Brown, in favor of Colston, Favre, and Dez Clark. Often a fast hook is better than dying with a big name non-producer. Analyze why he isn't producing and whether the conditions are likely to change anytime soon. Chambers is a stud, but Cpepp has got to get the ball to him - If you can trade for a steady B+ with a better situation (think Driver), perhaps you shoud do it - just an example. Use waiver wire rotation wisely. Only a few times per year does a stud hit the waiver wire. You want to be first up when it does. On the otherhand, know exactly when your waiver wire opens up. I've often gotten up at 4 am (yahoo league) to get the top pickups that cleared waivers before players in an earlier time zone got ot work and looked at who was left.

 

3. Good weekly roster management. Use average weekly cheat sheets as a guide as to who to start, but understand what the reasoning behind the recommendation is. For instance, this week in one league I played 4 players from 1 game (Favre, who was dropped after wk 1 and I picked up, Driver, McAllister, and Colston - another free agent pick-up). I just KNEW that game was gonna be a shoot-out.

 

4. Good trading skills. Be a proactive trader. Think uo and offer LOTS of trades - make them 'fair' - not extremely lopsided ones either - but ones that you feel will help your team. Only about 1 in 8 will be accepted, but NONE will be accepted if you get a reputation of screwing the other owner.

 

5. And lastly there is the luck factor. which is why, even though my playoff percentage is 100%, my championship percentage is only 25%. Good luck!

Don't forget:

 

6. Know which players are going to score the most points.