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The Moz

Just challenged for 1000 dollars !

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I guy I talk FF alot with challenged me to a 2 team league of sorts. We would snake draft and start a line up every week of 1 QB, 2 RB , 2 WR , 1 flex , 1 TE , 1 K and 1 D/ST -- whoever after week 17 had the most points would win the 1000 dollars !

 

He even offered me my choice of picks ! since I am thinking about doing this I am just wondering would it be better to have the 1st and 4th picks - Likley LT and Rudi or picks 2 and 3 likley LJ and Alexander ( even having a slow ass start they gotta be the selections here IMO ) ).

 

Essentially this would be a 2 team league which I would normally laugh at but 1 K is a decent payout if you win or a horrific loss if ya lose !

 

The guy is a FF player for as long as I have played and is usually pretty decent.

 

question is if a person offered you choice of draft position would you take a 1K here ? Even though the wifey might shoot my ass if I do it it is really tempting !

 

thoughts ( other than " wrong bored jackass ! ) I am posting here becasue it would get lostt on the other boared and this is a large money decision.

 

eta --

scoring is stardard decibel scoring. .1 for yards rec and running and 1 point per 25 yards passing. no PPR . no bonus for scoring distance , no Minus points for turnovers

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I guy I talk FF alot with challenged me to a 2 team league of sorts. We would snake draft and start a line up every week of 1 QB, 2 RB , 2 WR , 1 flex , 1 TE , 1 K and 1 D/ST -- whoever after week 17 had the most points would win the 1000 dollars !

 

He even offered me my choice of picks ! since I am thinking about doing this I am just wondering would it be better to have the 1st and 4th picks - Likley LT and Rudi or picks 2 and 3 likley LJ and Alexander ( even having a slow ass start they gotta be the selections here IMO ) ).

 

Essentially this would be a 2 team league which I would normally laugh at but 1 K is a decent payout if you win or a horrific loss if ya lose !

 

The guy is a FF player for as long as I have played and is usually pretty decent.

 

question is if a person offered you choice of draft position would you take a 1K here ? Even though the wifey might shoot my ass if I do it it is really tempting !

 

thoughts ( other than " wrong bored jackass ! ) I am posting here becasue it would get lostt on the other boared and this is a large money decision.eta -- scoring is stardard WCOFF

 

your odds are 50/50..better than any casino odds.

 

just put $100 aside for 10 weeks in case you lose.

 

Good Luck

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your odds are 50/50..better than any casino odds.

You need to learn how to play Blackjack.

 

:)

 

I probably wouldn't do something like this after the season is two weeks old. However... I don't think it really matters where you pick. I mean... is there a clear cut-all powerful-can't miss-superstar that's so much better than the second pick?

 

Possibly LT... but I don't even think he is. Frank Gore maybe?

 

Ha ha...

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thinking of taking 1st

 

LT - then Rudi / Peyton :shocking:

 

In my mind you have to do this just to get Peyton as well as the best WR in the league which is.......?

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id take the 1st and 4th picks.

 

 

Without a doubt, assure yourself LT. Denver at some point will bounce back and LT will likely play all 16 games. LT is the clear #1 rb this year and Rudi may be playing all 16 as well since Balt and Pit is in division.

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Without a doubt, assure yourself LT. Denver at some point will bounce back and LT will likely play all 16 games. LT is the clear #1 rb this year and Rudi may be playing all 16 as well since Balt and Pit is in division.

What does Denver bouncing back have to do with LT?

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i figure selecting 1st I can start my first 3 players being - LT , Rudi , Peyton

 

as for WRs I got no idea !

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You need to learn how to play Blackjack.

 

;)

 

I probably wouldn't do something like this after the season is two weeks old. However... I don't think it really matters where you pick. I mean... is there a clear cut-all powerful-can't miss-superstar that's so much better than the second pick?

 

Possibly LT... but I don't even think he is. Frank Gore maybe?

 

Ha ha...

 

Please BlackJack is for fools. The house wins like 75% of the time. Maybe more. His chances of winning here are much greater.

 

I think the only fair game in the casinos is Roulette...I always win there.... :banana:

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Whoever wins this will have won, not because they are better at FF, but because they got lucky. Your teams will both be loaded with studs at all positions, and neither of you really know what to expect. There's no skill involved here, I guess is what I'm trying to say. I wouldn't do it, it doesn't matter where you draft. Whoever mentioned blackjack...that's your best bet right there

 

 

Please BlackJack is for fools. The house wins like 75% of the time. Maybe more. His chances of winning here are much greater.

 

Dude, you've been playing blackjack wrong. It's not that complicated.

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thinking of taking 1st

 

LT - then Rudi / Peyton :banana:

 

hmmmmm.. 2/3/6/7/10 vs 1/4/5/8/9

thinking a little more, w/only 6 rb's eligible i'd actually take peyton at least by the 2/3 slot.

 

so i'd expect

1. LT

2. LJ/SA

3. Peyton

4. SA/LJ

5. Rudi

6. Tiki

 

starting lineups would probably turn out something like this. so would you rather start..

 

TEAM 2/3/6

Peyton

SA

Tiki

S-Jax/Westy

 

TEAM 1/4/5

Palmer

LT

LJ

Rudi

 

altho i would actually take peyton w/the #1. you'd likely end up w/peyton, LJ, Rudi while your opp gets LT, SA and Tiki. there's a drop off in value at #6 imo, so 1/4/5 looks better regardless imo.

 

also, in this type of league a lot of strategy will be dependent on how deep your roster is. ie. do you make a blocking pick of palmer if you already have peyton? if your opp has peyton how early do you take palmer (do you hope you can take him 8-9 picks later since your opp doesn't need another QB?)

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Dude, you've been playing blackjack wrong. It's not that complicated.

 

 

I love how people seem to think you have such a great chance in blackjack. Its the same odds as every god damn game in the casino. The casino has something like an 7-8% edge on you which is enough to kick the crap out of u over a couple hours. Unless of course ur playing in Vegas where it is about a 4-5% edge because of the rule changes. These casino edges are only like this if you play by the book 100% (which I do). If your an idiot and stand on 16's against 10's the casino edge is like 13-14%.

 

The best bet- Dont gamble. I ended up self-banning myself from every casino in Ontario... So if I do walk in, I get charged :thumbsdown:

 

Football betting is the way to go... Screw casinos.

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I love how people seem to think you have such a great chance in blackjack. Its the same odds as every god damn game in the casino. The casino has something like an 7-8% edge on you which is enough to kick the crap out of u over a couple hours. Unless of course ur playing in Vegas where it is about a 4-5% edge because of the rule changes. These casino edges are only like this if you play by the book 100% (which I do). If your an idiot and stand on 16's against 10's the casino edge is like 13-14%.

 

The best bet- Dont gamble. I ended up self-banning myself from every casino in Ontario... So if I do walk in, I get charged :blink:

 

Football betting is the way to go... Screw casinos.

 

 

if anyone was wondering this post is completely wrong. the typical vegas game (8 deck shoe where dealer stands on soft 17) has a house edge as low as .36% (less than 1%) against basic strategy. dealer error/counting/ace tracking /other can easily get this in a players favor. most players use far from correct basic strategy of course so the actual casino take is much larger than .36% of course.

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I would prefer the 2/3/6/7 picks. You are guarenteed either manning or LT. Manning is key because he is far above the other qbs. Is LT that far ahead of the rest?

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I would prefer the 2/3/6/7 picks. You are guarenteed either manning or LT. Manning is key because he is far above the other qbs.

 

exactly. which means that if his opp is smart manning may get taken w/the #1. if you consider SA/LJ equivalent it makes sense to take 1/4 (because picks 3 and 4 are essentially equivalent.) draft manning #1, know that LT and either SA/LJ gets taken next and take the other at 4. then you have the added bonus of getting the choice at #5.

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I just took the fokcing wager ! :dunno:

 

I selected 2/3 instead of 1/4 thinking i would get Peyton and SA

 

this is our "draft" so far

 

 

1.1 -- P. Manning - focking bastard <_< :wall: :wall: - him

1.2 - LT - me

 

2.1 - L. Johnson - me

2.2 - Rudi - him

 

3.1 - Tiki - him

3.2 - S. Alexander - Me

 

4.1 - C. Johnson - me

4.2 - C. Palmer -- Focking bastard - took him to block me ! : - him

 

5.1 - B. Westbrook - him

5.2 - D. McNabb - couldn't risk him focking me again - me

 

6.1 - T. Holt - me

6.2 - TO - him

 

7.1 - A. Gates - him

7.2 - R. Brown - me

 

8.1 - Fitzgerald - me

8.2 - M. Harrison - him

 

 

 

 

we stopped for now -- to continue tonight

 

 

16 rounds total -- start QB, RB,RB.WR,WR,Flex,TE,K,D/ST

 

 

Thoughts ??? my team

 

McNabb

 

Tomlinson

L. Johnson

Alexander

 

C. Johnson

T. Holt

Fitz

 

 

 

R. Brown - bench 1

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your team looks good, but if you had followed my posts advice you would be in better shape.

 

exactly. which means that if his opp is smart manning may get taken w/the #1. if you consider SA/LJ equivalent it makes sense to take 1/4 (because picks 3 and 4 are essentially equivalent.) draft manning #1, know that LT and either SA/LJ gets taken next and take the other at 4. then you have the added bonus of getting the choice at #5.

 

also

 

in this type of league a lot of strategy will be dependent on how deep your roster is. ie. do you make a blocking pick of palmer if you already have peyton? if your opp has peyton how early do you take palmer (do you hope you can take him 8-9 picks later since your opp doesn't need another QB?)

 

but instead of getting desperate after carson was gone you should have realized that it would be much more difficult for your opponent to take a 3rd QB before you selected one. you could have safely waited at least 4 picks (and probably 12) before picking mcnabb. but despite your butchering of this format you're in decent shape because your opponent has overvalued both TO and Gates significantly imo.

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i'd consider taking chicago w/your next pick (unless you equate someone w/chicago, then wait til the very end). you're essentially choosing your 2nd bench spots at RB and WR now and i'd prefer having the #1 Def. also, for future RB/WR selections i'd be looking for good players WITH good matchups when your other guys have tough matchups/byes)

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I love how people seem to think you have such a great chance in blackjack. Its the same odds as every god damn game in the casino. The casino has something like an 7-8% edge on you which is enough to kick the crap out of u over a couple hours. Unless of course ur playing in Vegas where it is about a 4-5% edge because of the rule changes. These casino edges are only like this if you play by the book 100% (which I do). If your an idiot and stand on 16's against 10's the casino edge is like 13-14%.

 

The best bet- Dont gamble. I ended up self-banning myself from every casino in Ontario... So if I do walk in, I get charged :banana:

 

Football betting is the way to go... Screw casinos.

 

Good for you. You did the right thing by stopping... because you're obviously too stupid to know how to gamble. :banana:

 

I know basic strategy, count and shuffle track. Haven't left Vegas (or Laughlin) without the gambling money I brought in in many years. With lots of practice and finding a good single deck table (with good rules, Ceasars is one of the best in Vegas!) most experts say the player can turn the advantage around 1% in thier favor. That's a pretty huge edge.

 

Stopped playing for large amounts because I was getting backed off in a lot of places... The bastards.

 

But hey... it's fine with me if you don't wanna play. One less guy at the table standing on soft 17 is better for me.

 

BTW... if there's a game where the house has a 7% edge (not to mention the 50% edge the other idiot said), I don't know what it is. Even slot machines pay out 95-99%. Possibly keno... or that stupid wheel of fortune... I don't know the house edge on them.

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so you have LT, Alexander and LJ vs. his Tiki, Westbrook and Rudi. How you gonna spend that $1000?

Actually he has LT/Alexander/LJ/Ronnie vs Tiki/Rudi/Westbrook

 

I think your team looks better cause RBs is where fantasy games are won everyone knows that and you clearly have the edge there, plus your WRs CJ/Fitz/Holt vs TO/Harrison/Gates, I'd probably take your trio there as well. Only place he gots you is QB. I would probably go with Bears Defense next assuming you get points for shutouts/ints/fumbs/sacks cause they are the clear cut #1 there IMO. You sure got some balls, I don't know if I could do that but I sure would if i knew I could afford to lose 1 K. Good Luck

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One thing to keep in mind here. Drafting is easy. Who you start and who you bench every week is where the $$$ will be made.

 

Is it a PPR league?

 

Also, I agree with what someone else said. Draft not only the Bears D but also the Ravens D immediately. Play match ups and get the advantage on the D front.

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BTW... if there's a game where the house has a 7% edge (not to mention the 50% edge the other idiot said), I don't know what it is. Even slot machines pay out 95-99%. Possibly keno... or that stupid wheel of fortune... I don't know the house edge on them.

 

That Wheel of Fortune game eats your money like a garbage disposal. What is it with women and the damn wheel of fortune?

 

This might sound odd, but there is one money wheel wheel in vegas that pays out nicely. Head to the Monte Carlo, in the back they have that big wheel the spin and you bet on what numbers the spinner stops on. I NEVER lose money on that. Hit the jackpot twice in a row once :dunno:

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If you really have some time on your hands, look at QB's strength of schedule and just run with the matchups for a while. I think ELI is the next best available QB here after mcneeezy...... also, since there are only 2 of you, obviously you want the BEST available at every position, so you should really draft Chicago D within your next 3 picks and block him at RB becuase his RB's are looking weeak...if I were you,

 

I would go Gore...Sjax....chicago....eli my next 4 picks......

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This is the part in the story where 2 big black guys come hunt you down at the train station for not paying up front....

 

 

Why was I not notified of this wager? Surely you needed a third team and a hetero....

 

Fun little bet there Moz. I like your draft so far, with the exception of Fitz before Harrison.. (if we're basing anything off the first 2 weeks...)

 

I also agree with the masses here in going Chicago Baltimore at the next available turn...

 

Whoever wins this will have won, not because they are better at FF, but because they got lucky. Your teams will both be loaded with studs at all positions, and neither of you really know what to expect. There's no skill involved here, I guess is what I'm trying to say.

 

Couldn't disagree more. With all the talent on the rosters, one is forced to use a deeper knowledge base than just nevah benching Stephen Davis.. I'd try to look down the season a little here Moz... Good passing teams that get to play Houston are who I'd start targeting.. (they've given up like 750 in the air so far?)

 

Not sure what to do about TE here, I'd want TGonz on my bench somewhere, but do you really have the roster space to carry 2D's, 2TE's and all those stud backs?

 

GL

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With this format why not draft like 20 rounds and start: 2QB's 3RB's 3WR's 2TE's 1K and 1D? Now that would have been fun, and a true measure of the best team. :pointstosky:

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I think you beat him so far. He made a good move going P Manning 1st but then blew it by allowing you to get all 3 of the big 3.

 

Nice. Good luck man. You have large huevos!

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I think you beat him so far. He made a good move going P Manning 1st but then blew it by allowing you to get all 3 of the big 3.

 

Nice. Good luck man. You have large huevos!

I was shocked when he didn't take Alexander but He said Alexander has looked awful "madden Curse " and wanted guys that have been looking good now i guess - maybe he had a decent point too.. The one thing that hurts is Manning and Palmer on his sqaud as its 6 points all touchdowns.

 

No PPR

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1.1 -- P. Manning - focking bastard - him

1.2 - LT - me

 

2.1 - L. Johnson - me

2.2 - Rudi - him

 

3.1 - Tiki - him

3.2 - S. Alexander - Me

 

4.1 - C. Johnson - me

4.2 - C. Palmer -- Focking bastard - took him to block me ! : - him

 

5.1 - B. Westbrook - him

5.2 - D. McNabb - couldn't risk him focking me again - me

 

6.1 - T. Holt - me

6.2 - TO - him

 

7.1 - A. Gates - him

7.2 - R. Brown - me

 

8.1 - Fitzgerald - me

8.2 - M. Harrison - him

 

9.1 - Baltimore D - him

9.2 - S. Smith - me

 

10.1 - S. Jackson - me

10.2 - Chicago D - him

 

 

11.1 - A. Vinaterni - him

11.2 - Pittsburgh D - me

 

12.1 - LJ Smith - me

12.2 - T. Gonzolez - him

 

13.1 - A. Boldin - him

13.2 - M. Vick - me

 

14.1 - Carolina D - me

14.2 - N. Rackers - him

 

15.1 - L. Jordan - him

15.2 - D. Akers - me

 

16.1 - R. Wayne - me

16.2 - R. Moss - him

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