1st Round Commentary (Jetdoc's Mock)

[Clash of the Titans 1]

hay remote i think you should trade me gore for the fabulous one since you lambasted me all of last year's ibl draft for taking the frank gore in the 6th round- it was the SOD baby! \

 

be back with analysis later tonight

 

 

slight edge here for me for westy over someone that probably goes next!

[Da Bomb 0]

surprised to see westy, i was thinking he was someone id probably have to consider (and pass on) at #9. last year was his best year by far, and i had him in a PPR league. some weeks he was absolutely phenomenal, but about 10 weeks of the year were just crossing your fingers and hoping hed even take the field. sometimes he didnt, sometimes he did and it didnt matter. considering that was his career year AND this isnt ppr, hes not a guy id get too excited about. certainly someone i'd have taken as my #2 RB at 2.4, or before that, but i had him as my #1 RB last year in his career year and i just know i was never too excited or satisfied with that.

[remote controller 143]

hey rc, i just noticed we have the same birthday

 

Guess who shares that date with us????

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The wacko who shot up VaTech!!!!

[Da Bomb 0]

that said, my quick projections for westbrook have him at 1600 combined and 10 TDs, which is right in the midst of this next tier of about 5 guys. i just think hes got the biggest downside AND the biggest inconsistency problem.

 

not a bad pick, just not one i would have done myself, theres a handful of others id feel much better about.

[remote controller 143]

hay remote i think you should trade me gore for the fabulous one since you lambasted me all of last year's ibl draft for taking the frank gore in the 6th round- it was the SOD baby! \

 

be back with analysis later tonight

slight edge here for me for westy over someone that probably goes next!

Sure turned out that way, thanks to the trade of Barlow about 2 days after your pick. It was the suprise story of the year for me last season..............that and Westy playing all but 1 game.

[NAn 39]

My take echoes Bomb's <shudder>....PPR Westy's gold and did put up real nice numbers, but yet to play full season/injury concerns loom.

[Jetdoc 20]

Interesting RB choices here. Westbrook's coming off his best year, and Willie Parker isn't too shabby in PIT.

 

I personally had to go with upside (unusual for me), and I think Addai has the makings of the next Edgerrin James in the Indianapolis system, especially without Rhodes there to vulture carries.

 

I really didn't even consider Westbrook or Parker with my pick...but I did wrestle with someone else.

 

...and Bombo took the guy I was wrestling with. Rudi's a proven commodity, and a very nice anchor to any squad.

[Da Bomb 0]

wouldve liked to get addai, a guy i really really love and think he could explode on the scene with 18-2000 yards combined and 12-15 TDs. i knew hed be gone though.

 

i was quite happy to see fwp was the other pick before me, so i could take rudi. if rudi wouldve been gone too, i wouldve had a tough choice taking someone i didnt particularly want between fwp and about 2 or 3 others, one of whom i will take at my next pick im sure. too early for any of them here, for me at least.

 

im never ecstatic about rudi as a #1 RB, but you just know exactly what youre going to get with him. it'll be about 1500 yards and 12 TDs, and a lot of consistency. cinci's OL was decimated last year and should be healthy again now (even with steinbach gone), so rudi's ypc should be back up over 4 easily again. add in possibly a couple more TDs with cincy lacking some WR power, and rudi is a really nice #9 pick imo. big drop after him to whoevers left, a buch of guys with fairly major ?s. rudi was the last one in this tier of safe to relatively safe #1 RBs imo.

[remote controller 143]

Interesting RB choices here. Westbrook's coming off his best year, and Willie Parker isn't too shabby in PIT.

 

I personally had to go with upside (unusual for me), and I think Addai has the makings of the next Edgerrin James in the Indianapolis system, especially without Rhodes there to vulture carries.

 

I really didn't even consider Westbrook or Parker with my pick...but I did wrestle with someone else.

 

...and Bombo took the guy I was wrestling with. Rudi's a proven commodity, and a very nice anchor to any squad.

I have Rudi at #6 currently and feel he is in the minority of SAFE round 1 backs this season. Nice pick!

[Jetdoc 20]

Maroney - wow. Does anyone else have him this high?

 

A trade just went down in my dynasty league - Tomlinson for Maroney/Javon Walker.

 

At first I was shocked, but seeing Maroney go this high in a redraft...

[remote controller 143]

wouldve liked to get addai, a guy i really really love and think he could explode on the scene with 18-2000 yards combined and 12-15 TDs. i knew hed be gone though.

 

i was quite happy to see fwp was the other pick before me, so i could take rudi. if rudi wouldve been gone too, i wouldve had a tough choice taking someone i didnt particularly want between fwp and about 2 or 3 others, one of whom i will take at my next pick im sure. too early for any of them here, for me at least.

 

im never ecstatic about rudi as a #1 RB, but you just know exactly what youre going to get with him. it'll be about 1500 yards and 12 TDs, and a lot of consistency. cinci's OL was decimated last year and should be healthy again now (even with steinbach gone), so rudi's ypc should be back up over 4 easily again. add in possibly a couple more TDs with cincy lacking some WR power, and rudi is a really nice #9 pick imo. big drop after him to whoevers left, a buch of guys with fairly major ?s. rudi was the last one in this tier of safe to relatively safe #1 RBs imo.

I like the Addai pick too, but am not near as high on his TD totals as you. I think 10 max. Rhodes might be gone but I am confident they are going to replace him in the game plan.

 

Maroney is a pick with tons of UP, and was a good choice here.

 

Maroney - wow. Does anyone else have him this high?

 

A trade just went down in my dynasty league - Tomlinson for Maroney/Javon Walker.

 

At first I was shocked, but seeing Maroney go this high in a redraft...

I had him as a corner pick, but feel he has the upside to pull this off. I would have preferred him in round 2 but that goes without saying.

[Miller_Time_21 0]

Marroney would have likely been my pick at 1.11 if he was still there, but not sure. I have him and Willis very close.

 

As far as my pick, can't say I'm thrilled, more like :sigh:....but the value was just not very good. I can get other positions on my way back so I felt I needed to take the RB here. I'm still a believer in Willis, and think in the Baltimore system he will shine so I will roll the dice on just that.

 

To chime in on Westy, I'm a bit suprised someone with his injury history is going this high. I would not want to spend a first on him, I know what he did last year, and I also know how valuable he is while in the line-up, I also know all too well how much he can crush you when he's hurt. Just too much risk for the reward there IMO.

[NAn 39]

Turned out Bomb was right, as Westy was one guy I didn’t expect to go before my pick so I still got one of my guys.

 

So here’s where not being as up on ff as I have in past my show…am I missing something?

 

Dillon/Maroney combined for 1900totyds/19tds.

 

With Dillon gone even with 300-320 carries/25-35recs (times Maroney’s ypc/ypr), you’d be looking at 1500-1700totyds/and I could see 12-15 tds.

 

Yes, the passing game will be improved, but they weren’t bad last year and think it’ll only help run game overall and also give up some gimmee gl tds.

 

Are those numbers unrealistic? B/c if not then I have him as a top8 in my rankings right now and happy to get him at 10 spot.

[Fumbleweed 543]

...and Bombo took the guy I was wrestling with. Rudi's a proven commodity, and a very nice anchor to any squad.

 

I have a signifcant disagreement with this. I don't want Rudi Johnson "anchoring" my squad. I tried that last year and my ship sunk. Because Rudi sucked? Of course not. His numbers have been almost identical now for three years.

 

Rudi Johnson is as consistent as they come. But, he's also completely unexplosive. He doesn't put up huge numbers.....just solid ones. The kind you dream about getting from your #2 RB. But, relying on Rudi is not going to win anybody any FF titles.

 

Can a team with Rudi on it win a title? Sure. But, you need an excellent supporting cast. Rudi is a complimentary piece....but he's no anchor. JMO.

 

Maroney - wow. Does anyone else have him this high?

 

A trade just went down in my dynasty league - Tomlinson for Maroney/Javon Walker.

 

At first I was shocked, but seeing Maroney go this high in a redraft...

 

I've got him about this high as long as they don't sign Chris Brown to spell him some and keep him thus at about a 250 carry a season level.

[remote controller 143]

His numbers have been almost identical now for three years.

 

Rudi Johnson is as consistent as they come. But, relying on Rudi is not going to win anybody any FF titles.

 

Can a team with Rudi on it win a title? Sure. But, you need an excellent supporting cast. Rudi is a complimentary piece....but he's no anchor.

I feel just the opposite. Having his consistancy gives you the freedom to search for this years Gore. I understand what you are saying, but we both know it comes down to the difference in our drafting styles.

[NAn 39]

Mcaghee and likely the group of RBs to come in next 3-7 picks is why I was happy with Maroney in 10spot...just see a signficant drop off in potential production and confidence.

 

Many said prior to last year that Mcaghee had talent to overcome an average team, I disagreed...he then went on to show me he is indeed not that type of player.

 

And now, yes his supporting cast is better at the skill positions but IMO that OL is average at best.

 

Mcaghee, good as pick as any here...just a pick I hope I don't have to make come draft day.

[Miller_Time_21 0]

I feel just the opposite. Having his consistancy gives you the freedom to search for this years Gore. I understand what you are saying, but we both know it comes down to the difference in our drafting styles.

Took the words out fo my mouth. Get your solid, week in and week out guy in the first, then as the draft wears on, you have the ability to swing for the fences without leaving huge holes in your team if you miss.

[Fumbleweed 543]

Took the words out fo my mouth. Get your solid, week in and week out guy in the first, then as the draft wears on, you have the ability to swing for the fences without leaving huge holes in your team if you miss.

 

Sounds good in theory. But, I've never seen a team with Rudi Johnson go far. He'll lead you to a 7-7 record unless you do find something special (Gore last year for example) later on.

 

He has a ceiling. And, he won't surpass it.

[remote controller 143]

Sounds good in theory. But, I've never seen a team with Rudi Johnson go far. He'll lead you to a 7-7 record unless you do find something special (Gore last year for example) later on.

 

He has a ceiling. And, he won't surpass it.

Rudi and Westy were good to me last year. 2 seconds in 2 redraft leagues and top tier in the IBL.

[Fumbleweed 543]

Rudi and Westy were good to me last year. 2 seconds in 2 redraft leagues and top tier in the IBL.

 

Westbrook surpassed his draft status. Rudi was good to you as an ideal #2 in terms of his consistency of production. But, your teams would have sunk with him as the #1.

[remote controller 143]

Westbrook surpassed his draft status. Rudi was good to you as an ideal #2 in terms of his consistency of production. But, your teams would have sunk with him as the #1.

That was my point.........kind of. Rudi allowed me to pick Westy. The fact that I earmarked McNabb and Driver also helped. I feel Rudi is the prototypical SAFE first rounder. Not the world beater, or the king of UPs, but a great first piece. I have always been very conservative however.

[Fumbleweed 543]

That was my point.........kind of. Rudi allowed me to pick Westy. The fact that I earmarked McNabb and Driver also helped. I feel Rudi is the prototypical SAFE first rounder. Not the world beater, or the king of UPs, but a great first piece. I have always been very conservative however.

 

And, my point was that Westbrook surpassed his draft status. Somebody had to. Rudi's ceiling makes him less than what we call a "stud" in this business. Your team's success was based on Westbrook and Rudi being that solid #2. If Westbrook had merely lived up to his draft status, you would likely have had a middle of the road team.

[remote controller 143]

And, my point was that Westbrook surpassed his draft status. Somebody had to. Rudi's ceiling makes him less than what we call a "stud" in this business. Your team's success was based on Westbrook and Rudi being that solid #2. If Westbrook had merely lived up to his draft status, you would likely have had a middle of the road team.

Fumble

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Fumbleweed 543]

We're just debating this. I understand your point. I'm not overlooking it.........

 

Just to show that I've been consistent on my view on this for quite some time, here's a thread on the subject from several weeks ago. My position now is exactly what it was then.

 

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...hl=Rudi+Johnson

[remote controller 143]

We're just debating this. I understand your point. I'm not overlooking it.........

 

Just to show that I've been consistent on my view on this for quite some time, here's a thread on the subject from several weeks ago. My position now is exactly what it was then.

 

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...hl=Rudi+Johnson

............and the same as last year and the year before that. I will never doubt your consistency on views. I will point out that we discuss differences in drafting styles every year, and that is what this is. It's kinda like the debate on glass 1/2 full, or 1/2 empty. Hell, it's exactly like that. It's always fun Fumble!

[Da Bomb 0]

fumble, normally i would be arguing everything as you are saying, but my opinion has changed. look at the guys who went after me in the first... i cant believe any of the 3 are first round picks honestly. wow. would you rather have rudi's boring 1500/12 (which is 222 points, or about 12-16 every week), or be going boom or bust with guys like maroney, henry, etc? at least you know what youre getting with rudi. with maroney you could get 1500 and 12, but you could also get 800 and 6 pretty easily. i was shocked to see him so high but i'll comment more on that later on. the old adage comes true here. you cant win the draft in the first round (unless you took tomlinson last year), but you CAN lose it. ask the people who took cadillac and ronnie before rudi last year. rudi might not have won anyone a league, but he certainly didnt kill anyone either like those two. if you drafted one of them, your season was effectively shot. if this was me drafting, id take rudi's points each week and go out and find higher upside later on with the riskier picks.

 

youre one of the guys that normally likes to take a particular QB early on, if i am remembering right. im up right now at 2.4 and hes available and would be a good pick. i might take him actually. but hes the same thing as rudi. hes not going to explode and win me the league (except in 05 or whenever it was), but he'll completely cover one of my spots and make me not even have to consider starting/benching anything from week to week. i'll just plug him in and get the points, and worry about the rest of my team.

[Fumbleweed 543]

It's always fun Fumble!

 

Agreed.

 

fumble, normally i would be arguing everything as you are saying, but my opinion has changed. look at the guys who went after me in the first... i cant believe any of the 3 are first round picks honestly. wow. would you rather have rudi's boring 1500/12 (which is 222 points, or about 12-16 every week), or be going boom or bust with guys like maroney, henry, etc? at least you know what youre getting with rudi. with maroney you could get 1500 and 12, but you could also get 800 and 6 pretty easily. i was shocked to see him so high but i'll comment more on that later on. the old adage comes true here. you cant win the draft in the first round (unless you took tomlinson last year), but you CAN lose it. ask the people who took cadillac and ronnie before rudi last year. rudi might not have won anyone a league, but he certainly didnt kill anyone either like those two. if you drafted one of them, your season was effectively shot. if this was me drafting, id take rudi's points each week and go out and find higher upside later on with the riskier picks.

 

youre one of the guys that normally likes to take a particular QB early on, if i am remembering right. im up right now at 2.4 and hes available and would be a good pick. i might take him actually. but hes the same thing as rudi. hes not going to explode and win me the league (except in 05 or whenever it was), but he'll completely cover one of my spots and make me not even have to consider starting/benching anything from week to week. i'll just plug him in and get the points, and worry about the rest of my team.

 

It's worth noting that I don't think Rudi is a bad pick. My argument was only that I don't think he "anchors" a squad. It's not like he's ranked way down on my list of RBs or anything. But, I do have Maroney and Henry ahead of him currently. They have significant upside. He does not.

 

It was a solid pick. I'm not suggesting it wasn't. Just don't see him as a stud and I think you'll need some good drafting in the next few rounds to really "anchor" a solid team.

[Da Bomb 0]

so you wouldve taken maroney and henry ahead of him, i assume. do i assume you wouldnt consider him until the 2nd round?

[Fumbleweed 543]

so you wouldve taken maroney and henry ahead of him, i assume. do i assume you wouldnt consider him until the 2nd round?

 

Yes, I would've taken them both ahead of him. I had Rudi valued as my #11 RB....12th player overall. So, for me, his value is at the end of the first........

[Da Bomb 0]

fair enough. out of curiosity, where would you take the top QB on your board... you know... whoever that player might be.

[remote controller 143]

fair enough. out of curiosity, where would you take the top QB on your board... you know... whoever that player might be.

my guess is #11

[Fumbleweed 543]

fair enough. out of curiosity, where would you take the top QB on your board... you know... whoever that player might be.

 

1.06.

[Da Bomb 0]

thats what i thought... i just dont understand the big difference between "that qb" and rudi. "that qb" will end up having around 4000 and 28-30, just like probably 2 or 3 other qbs who have the upside to be there. so if rudi has 1500/12 just like several other rbs who have the upside to be there. important difference definitely is that a couple of those said RBs could exceed rudi, whereas you probably dont expect any QBs to exceed "that qb" by much or any. but even so, seems like the same "concept" of a safe player to me.

[Fumbleweed 543]

thats what i thought... i just dont understand the big difference between "that qb" and rudi. "that qb" will end up having around 4000 and 28-30, just like probably 2 or 3 other qbs who have the upside to be there. so if rudi has 1500/12 just like several other rbs who have the upside to be there. important difference definitely is that a couple of those said RBs could exceed rudi, whereas you probably dont expect any QBs to exceed "that qb" by much or any. but even so, seems like the same "concept" of a safe player to me.

 

That QB doesn't have the relatively low ceiling that Rudi has. He could easily go for 35-40 TDs this year if games dictate the need for that kind of production.

 

Rudi is consistent and thus safe. The QB you speak of is consistently the BEST at his position year in and year out. And, he has the potential to carry a team on his back for stretches during a season. In that sense, he's both safe AND explosive. Rudi is safe, but not really explosive. He won't carry anybody's team. But, he's a terrific #2 RB......even a terrific 1b. But, he's not 1A.

 

I mostly go by my projections and I've got "that QB" comfortably ahead of everybody else at the position in terms of production.

[remote controller 143]

That QB doesn't have the relatively low ceiling that Rudi has. He could easily go for 35-40 TDs this year if games dictate the need for that kind of production.

 

Rudi is consistent and thus safe. The QB you speak of is consistently the BEST at his position year in and year out. And, he has the potential to carry a team on his back for stretches during a season. In that sense, he's both safe AND explosive. Rudi is safe, but not really explosive. He won't carry anybody's team. But, he's a terrific #2 RB......even a terrific 1b. But, he's not 1A.

 

I mostly go by my projections and I've got "that QB" comfortably ahead of everybody else at the position in terms of production.

I don't think Kitna warrants such lofty figures.

[Da Bomb 0]

thats the thing though. every year you see people figuring 40 or 50 TDs for "that qb." but "that qb" has only thrown for more than 30 tds THREE times in his career. and more than 33 only that one magical record breaking year.

 

so it seems to me that he doesnt really have much more crazy upside than rudi does. in fact, having already had his huge career year, the chance is much better than "that qb" never gets close to matching those numbers while rudi, in theory at least, could still have his career year.

 

i dont have a problem with "that qb" pick, and i know you dont with rudi. i just dont think theres as big of a difference as you suggest. "that qb" has been in the league 9 years. and in most of those years, people in fantasy sports project him a ways ahead of everyone else. but guess how many of those years he led the league in TD passes? just twice, and tied one other time. im officially selling on investing a high pick into him, especially that high. its a copout pick, and the assumed upside just isnt really there. it was once in 9 years. he averages 30.5 TDs a year, and thats including the one huge year. averaging 28 in the other years. not too shabby, not at all. but is the steady 4000/28 really that much more special than the steady 1500/12 rb? im just not sure of it.

[Fumbleweed 543]

I don't think Kitna warrants such lofty figures.

 

I thought we were discussing Jason Campbell all this time???

[remote controller 143]

I thought we were discussing Jason Campbell all this time???

Oh, uh.........Sorry.............carry on chap!

[RLLD 4,207]

Looking over round 1, i think Westbrook should have gone before SA.

 

Swap those two picks and it looks alot better to me~ JMHO