*** '07 Player Projections By NFL Team ***

[NAn 39]

To prepare FFTodayers for the upcoming ’07 season, starting 5/14 will post threads listing offensive players by NFL team and invite posters to attach projections to each offensive player.

Posting of just commentary on one or mutliple players, instead of projections is welcomed and encouraged as well.

 

Will post 3 team threads per week (2 during 4th of July week) alphabetically by team city, so will have all 32 NFL teams posted before August 1st.

Through beginning of FF season will hopefully have this thread pinned as an ‘Archives’ thread, so will have opportunity to post replies for any previous team at any time.

 

Player Projections By NFL Team: Archives Thread Link

New England Patriots: Team/Player Statistical History Link

Randy Moss: Statistical History Link

Donte Stallworth: Statistical History Link

 

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

 

’06 Statistics

 

|---------- PASSING -----------||----- RUSHING -----|  TOTAL 
		  CMP  ATT   YD	YPA   TD INT  ATT   YD	YPA  TD	 YD   
		  326  526  3590   6.83  25  12  499  1969  3.95  20   5559
NFL rank --->  10   12   11	 15	7   6	6   12	18	4	 12
QB
| Name				 |  G | CMP ATT   PCT YARD  Y/A TD IN | RSH YARD TD |
| Tom Brady			| 16 | 319 516  61.8 3529  6.8 24 12 |  49  102  0 |
RB
| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |
| Laurence Maroney	 | 14 |  175   745   4.3   6  |   22   194   8.8   1 |
WR
| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |
| Randy Moss		   | 13 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   42   553  13.2   3 |
| Donte Stallworth	 | 12 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   38   725  19.1   5 |

 

Notes:

RB LMaroney: 2nd year

WR RMoss: Will be 10th season, 1st with Patriots

WR DStallworth: Will be 6th season, 1st with Patriots

 

Key Questions For '07 Season:

Will TBrady have elite season with much improved WR corp?

Will LMaroney be productive ‘carrying the load’? injury a concern?

Will RMoss return to elite status or more of what we’ve seen in recent years?

Will DStallworth be able to stay healthy? Be productive?

Will RCaldwell, WWelker, CJackson, KWashington contribute significantly?

[NAn 39]

bump

[dogbert 0]

Does that seem like a high yards per catch average for Maroney?

[NAn 39]

My own question for Pats homers.

 

I made pt to mention the other WRs b/c of Stallworth/Moss's recent history of injury/missing time.

 

If either were to miss significant time, which other WR would benefit the most?

 

I'm thinking Caldwell, but curious to homer takes.

[GobbleDog 1,017]

Top New England WRs for the past five years:

 

2006: Reche Caldwell 61 rec, 760 yards, 4 TDs

2005: Deion Branch 78 rec, 998 yards, 5 TDs

2004: David Givens 56 rec, 874 yards, 3 TDs

2003: Deion Branch 57 rec, 803 yards, 3 TDs

2002: Troy Brown 97 rec, 870 yards, 3 TDs

 

Note - during those five years, the highest number of receiving TDs by any Patriot WR or TE was 7 which happened only 3 times.

 

Randy Moss past two years:

 

2006: 13 GS, 42 rec, 553 yards, 3 TDs

2005: 15 GS, 60 rec, 1005 yards, 8 TDs

 

.....................................................................................................................

 

Randy Moss 2007: ????? realistically.... 65 rec, 850 yards, 6 TDs

[Ruphus 0]

To prepare FFTodayers for the upcoming ’07 season, starting 5/14 will post threads listing offensive players by NFL team and invite posters to attach projections to each offensive player.

Posting of just commentary on one or mutliple players, instead of projections is welcomed and encouraged as well.

 

Will post 3 team threads per week (2 during 4th of July week) alphabetically by team city, so will have all 32 NFL teams posted before August 1st.

Through beginning of FF season will hopefully have this thread pinned as an ‘Archives’ thread, so will have opportunity to post replies for any previous team at any time.

 

Player Projections By NFL Team: Archives Thread Link

New England Patriots: Team/Player Statistical History Link

Randy Moss: Statistical History Link

Donte Stallworth: Statistical History Link

 

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

 

’06 Statistics

 

|---------- PASSING -----------||----- RUSHING -----|  TOTAL 
		  CMP  ATT   YD	YPA   TD INT  ATT   YD	YPA  TD	 YD   
		  326  526  3590   6.83  25  12  499  1969  3.95  20   5559
NFL rank --->  10   12   11	 15	7   6	6   12	18	4	 12
QB
| Name				 |  G | CMP ATT   PCT YARD  Y/A TD IN | RSH YARD TD |
| Tom Brady			| 16 | 319 516  61.8 3529  6.8 24 12 |  49  102  0 |
RB
| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |
| Laurence Maroney	 | 14 |  175   745   4.3   6  |   22   194   8.8   1 |
WR
| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |
| Randy Moss		   | 13 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   42   553  13.2   3 |
| Donte Stallworth	 | 12 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   38   725  19.1   5 |

 

Notes:

RB LMaroney: 2nd year

WR RMoss: Will be 10th season, 1st with Patriots

WR DStallworth: Will be 6th season, 1st with Patriots

 

Key Questions For '07 Season:

Will TBrady have elite season with much improved WR corp?

Will LMaroney be productive ‘carrying the load’? injury a concern?

Will RMoss return to elite status or more of what we’ve seen in recent years?

Will DStallworth be able to stay healthy? Be productive?

Will RCaldwell, WWelker, CJackson, KWashington contribute significantly?

 

 

Hmm.... Not a homer, just an avid football fan....

 

Brady... I think he see's a 10-15% increase this year.... so roughly 4000 yds, 28 TDs

Moss.... Eh, shot in the dark here.... 65 - 1100 - 8

Maroney... nother shot in the dark.... 1200 rush yds, 10 tds.... 250 rec yds, 2 TDs

Stallworth... 40-700-5

Welker... my dark horse, sleeper pick for the team.... 55-800-4... though nothing spectacular

Caldwell.... eh... 35-500-3

 

mostly guesses heh

[Raider 84 29]

Moss 70 1150 11

[TD Ryan2 316]

here's a copy of my post from when you started this project Nan:

(Link to original thread/post)

 

Nan,

 

here's a Pat's history:

2001 - 2006 History

(6 year averages)

Passing Yards- 3,734 (best: '05, 4322 yards)

Passing Completions - 319 (best: '02, 373 completions)

Passing TDs - 25.6 (best: '04, 29 TDs)

 

Rushing Yards - 1753 (best: '04, 2134 yards)

Rushing TDs - 14 (best: '06, 20TDs)

2007 Team Projections

(New England Patriots

Total Pass Yards: 4200

Total Pass TDs: 28

Total Pass Completions: 340

Total Rush Yards: 1750

Total Rush TDs: 15

QB Tom Brady

4200 yards pass

28 TDs

14 Ints

340 completions

 

RB L Maroney:

1300 yards rush, 10 rush TDs

30 catch, 300 yards, 1 TD

 

RB S Morris / Kevin Faulk/H Evans

450 yards rush

5 rush TDs

30 catch, 300 yards, 1 TD

 

WR R Moss

70 catch, 1100 yards, 9TDs

 

WR D Stallworth

50 catch, 700 yards, 4 TDs

 

WR W Welker

70 catch, 700 yards, 4 TDs

 

WR R Caldwell/J Gaffney/K Washington

30 catch, 300 yards, 2 TDs

 

TE B Watson

45 catch, 650 yards, 5 TDs

 

TE D Thomas/K Brady/G Mills

20 catch, 150 yards, 2 TDs

I guess.

[Boston 0]

I think TD Ryan is right in the ballpark of how the #'s will end up. I think I'd give Brady 2-4 more TDs and sprinkle them around (I bet Stallworth gets a few more long ones) but overall that's a very realistic breakdown.

 

Here are a few general thoughts on the Pats:

 

*Expect Welker to take over the role of Troy Brown circa 2001. He was one of the stars of the recent mini-camp and it's no fluke the Pats were willing to give up a #2 and #7 to get him. They love the guy. He will become Brady's favorite target and the fact he will be going against #3 corners and safeties all year long is nothing but a plus. He won't have as many catches as Brown did in 01 because this team has far more weapons but I expect him to sustain a high level of play longer than Troy because Brown didn't really hit his stride until later in his career. I'd be careful of him in fantasy because I believe he's a more valuable real player than fantasy player.

 

*The only thing that will hold Maroney back is the potential for injury. Right now that's a legit concern but if he plays 16 I'd be shocked if he doesn't finish in the top 10. With Moss, Stallworth and Welker onboard teams can no longer cheat up like they could when Caldwell, Gaffney and Gabriel were the starters. Due to a poor WR unit safeties like Bob Sanders and Kerry Rhodes were able to play like D-linemen last year and were really able to disrupt the Pats running game. If they try that this year they will be in danger of giving up a quick six with the weapons/speed the Pats now have. The bottomline is Maroney is going to have a lot more breathing room than both he and Dillon had last year. The fact the Pats bring back their entire starting line and key backups is another plus.

 

*The x-factor is Moss. Until you really know what he's all about it's tough to predict the numbers for everyone else. I've said it before but no one will know what he has left (be it good or bad) until the games start. If he's 85-90% of what he was this offense will be scary. It will be a matchup nightmare for defenses. If Moss is that type of player look for him to have by far the best year a WR has had during the BB era. To compare Moss to Troy Brown, Deion Branch or David Givens does not make sense. He's much bigger, faster and talented than those guys ever were. Due to that I'd be very careful looking at past history when figuring out his production. The guy I would look to when trying to figure him out is Corey Dillon in 2004. While he played a different position once he proved he was a stud BB ran him into the ground. If Moss proves he can play at a high level I look for him to be used early and often as Dillon was in 2004.

 

*Unless Ben Watson proves he can be more reliable catching the ball and securing it after the catch I would not look at him as anything more than a bye week fill in. Even if he does improve it still maybe tough for him to put up big numbers, especially if David Thomas is healthy.

 

*The Pats D looks to be a solid fantasy unit. The addition of Adalius Thomas was by far the biggest addition of their offseason. Look for BB to really utilize him and I expect that to translate into more team sacks and turnovers. They have the potential to be a rock solid, top 5 fantasy unit.

 

*Gostkowski should be a solid, starting level fantasy kicker this year. The Pats brought him along slowly last year but showed a ton of confidence in him as the year went along and especially in the playoffs. For leagues with a yardage bonus he should have more value as he has a big leg and I'm willing to bet the Pats will be more comfortable letting him attempt some of those this year.

 

Overall here's where I see Patriot players ending up:

 

Brady-Starting fantasy QB who should finsish somewhere between 3-7.

 

Maroney-It's all about the durability. If he can handle a full workload he's a top 10 RB. If not than it really throws a wrench into this situation. They really don't have a RB that will put up big numbers. Faulk and Morris would probably be a RBBC and I don't see either being a RB you could count on on a weekly basis. If Maroney goes down there's a good chance they will be forced to pass more which will definetly have a trickle down effect fantasywise.

 

Moss-I view him as a #2 fantasy WR. I'm pretty confident about the TDs (9-11) but the yardage is more of a guessing game.

 

Stallworth-His best fit is as a #4. When Moss came onboard it really effected Stallworth the most. I think he'll have some real big games as they will use him deep but I'm not sure he will be consistent enough on a weekly basis to rely on him.

 

Welker-Backup fantasy WR who will have more value in a PPR league. He's never been a TD guy and due to that his value will always be limited.

 

Watson-#2 TE unless the lightbulb really goes off. Even than he's still competing with a lot of talent for his share.

 

D/ST-Starting level unit.

 

Gostkowski-Top 10 kicker.

[NAn 39]

bump

[Angry White Male 0]

Great team with great offense, but I don't see any of the players aside from Brady and Maroney providing consistent points. The projections for Randy will tend to be high due to his past performances, but I do not see him getting 1000 yards in the Patriots' system. Belichick will use Moss as a decoy and I expect Maroney, Welker and Watson to benefit from the attention paid to the outside WRs.

 

So in sum I'm high on:

Brady - but don't see the value in drafting him as every draft seems to have a Pats homer snapping him up too early

Maroney - i expect him to benefit the most from the WR additions. more room to run, and likely more opportunities late in games as the Pats put away opponents early and try to run the clock down.

Watson - should be money in the endzone with all the attention on Moss. great draft value here.

 

Overvalued IMO:

Moss

Stallworth

[cblue 0]

Top New England WRs for the past five years:

 

2006: Reche Caldwell 61 rec, 760 yards, 4 TDs

2005: Deion Branch 78 rec, 998 yards, 5 TDs

2004: David Givens 56 rec, 874 yards, 3 TDs

2003: Deion Branch 57 rec, 803 yards, 3 TDs

2002: Troy Brown 97 rec, 870 yards, 3 TDs

 

Note - during those five years, the highest number of receiving TDs by any Patriot WR or TE was 7 which happened only 3 times.

 

Randy Moss past two years:

 

2006: 13 GS, 42 rec, 553 yards, 3 TDs

2005: 15 GS, 60 rec, 1005 yards, 8 TDs

 

.....................................................................................................................

 

Randy Moss 2007: ????? realistically.... 65 rec, 850 yards, 6 TDs

 

This is a great point....Brady does not play favorites.

[DBZFan2K 0]

I'm not going to project numbers but here is how I think each player will do.

 

Tom Brady (QB) He's as dependable as they come. Managed to rank 7th last season despite having a less-than-impressive arsenal of receivers. The additions of Moss, Stallworth, and Welker plus the late emergence of Gaffney should translate to better numbers. Good bet to finish among the top 5 fantasy QB's.

 

Laurence Maroney (RB) As everyone has said, his durability is a concern. But don't be afraid to take chances. There were many concerns about Frank Gore's durability and he answered his critics with a stellar second season. That's not to say Maroney will have a Gore-type season, but it goes to show that perception isn't everything. If we're still talking about Maroney's injury problems 3 years from now then there is reason to shy away. Until then, he has stud written all over him. The Patriots o-line will be tailored to Maroney's running style and he should benefit. He's been a late 1st rounder in mock drafts which looks just about right.

 

Sammy Morris/Kevin Faulk (RB) In the event that Maroney has to miss some time, these two would be the benefactors. Morris is the handcuff, but you'd be better off using the roster space on a better player. Faulk you should ignore entirely.

 

Randy Moss (WR) First let's make one thing clear: he will not light the NFL on fire like he did in his rookie season. He had a lot less mileage and the benefit of playing most of his games on the Minny turf. Plus he was a major disappointment in Oakland. Having said that, he's in a much better situation playing for New England. Brady typically doesn't pick favorites, but he's never had a WR as good as Moss at his disposal. If Moss is open, Brady will get the ball to him. There will be no Randy Ratio here though, as there are other useful receiving options. Many great NFL WR's play at a high level in their 30's, and Moss just turned 30 himself five months ago. I'm optimistic but I'm not sure what to expect. I'll say he finishes among the top 15 fantasy WR's and leave it at that.

 

Donte' Stallworth (WR) He is what he is. A blazing downfield threat who should find himself motivated at a big contract push. He certainly showed some stud potential early last season before getting hurt. That's where we get the other side of Stallworth. He's a week-to-week headache due to injury concerns, has questionable hands, and has yet to live up to his billing as the top WR prospect of his 2002 class with no 1000+ yard season on his resume. Don't expect that to change this year. A top fantasy reserve but not someone I'd want to depend on as a weekly starter. Should finish somewhere in the top 40.

 

Wes Welker (WR) A fan favorite as a Dolphin and should definitely become one among Patriots fans. His speed and hands will be utilized heavily both on offense and special teams. Not enough to really be a fantasy contributor though, especially considering he has only 1 touchdown in 2 pro seasons. I find it hard to believe that Stallworth will play all 16 games (though he has done it, twice in a row with the Saints in 04 and 05), so Welker will spot start on occasion. Someone to keep an eye on especially if Stallworth misses significant time but otherwise he's not going to help your fantasy squad enough.

 

Reche Caldwell/Jabar Gaffney/Kelley Washington/Troy Brown/Chad Jackson (WR) Forget about these guys. They are all too low on the peking order, and even if a series of disastrous injuries moved them up to prominent roles, they aren't good enough to count on for fantasy purposes. Jackson has the most potential of this group but it's a stretch to expect anything out of him in 2007.

 

Ben Watson (TE) He's got the physical tools to be the best TE the Patriots have had since Ben Coates. But his hands are suspect and he didn't take advantage of his opportunity to be Brady's go-to guy last year. Should be a once-in-a-while contributor ala Dallas Clark, but as is with most TE's, he'll be inconsistent. Will probably finish just outside of the top 10 among fantasy TE.

 

Kyle Brady/David Thomas (TE) The other Brady. Once a first round draft pick by the Jets, he's among the NFL's elite blocking TE's, but is a non-factor as a receiver. Consider him a better blocking Christian Fauria. As for Thomas, he showed flashes of brilliance in limited time last year as a rookie. Considered to have a better overall game than Watson, but still 3rd on the team depth chart. Keep his name in mind in case Watson gets hurt.

 

Stephen Gostkowski (K) Has killer leg strength and improved on his accuracy throughout the second half of the season, and was flawless in the playoffs. With the offseason additions, the Patriots can be expected to have better field position, which will open up more opportunities for Gostkowski. Fantasy kickers are a dime a dozen though and hard to predict. Worth a final round flier.

[listen2me 23 1,964]

Brady will be Brady

 

Moroney will be great...1250 10 TDs 30 rec. 250 yds 1 TD

 

Moss- virtually overvalued in every league....63 rec. 840yds 7 TDs while missing about 2 games.

 

Everyone likes to live in the past and think Moss is still close to Moss of old. He's not close and on a team who will not plan an Off. around him.

[hardball 0]

New England will simply be New England. Tom Brady is not about to have the great increase in yardage and touchdowns that everyone in the fantasy world is predicting. New England plays run first and throws out of necessity. They will have leads in the majority of games and will keep the ball on the ground late. It is a system that has produced 3 super bowls and I doubt Bill changes anything regardless if Randy Moss and Stallworth are around or not. I think a lot of the projections on this thread are accurate. Maroney benefits the most and Brady will have fewer than 30 TD passes getting a few extra 40 yard plus bombs. Everything else should be business as usual.

 

Just my opinion

[IGotWorms 4,063]

Brady - Will definitely see an increase in production with the addition of three great receiving weapons.

 

Maroney - If he is healthy, he will be top 10 easy and probably more like top 5 or 6. But he is a big injury concern. I would not take him until late in the first, when I knew I could get a very good RB2 so that I would not be up sh!t creek without a paddle if Maroney missed a bunch of games.

 

Sammy Morris - If Maroney should go down, I think Sammy would step in and see a considerable number of carries. For that reason, he is pretty value as a late round RB, but most everyone knows this already. Absolute necessity as a handcuff for Maroney owners, IMO.

 

Moss - Way overvalued. He will be a big target in the red zone, but I don't see him getting massive yardage simply because of the way the Pats spread the ball around.

 

Stallworth - I think he is pretty well valued at the moment. He could end up being a nice find in later rounds if he should happen to gel really well with Brady, but its more reasonable to expect a handful of long scores and not a lot else.

 

Welker - Good pick as a deep sleeper, because Brady and McDaniels (OC) will love him and use him often. His yards per catch will be low, though. So I think he has good value in a PPR, but otherwise, he is a bench guy. Don't expect him to field kick returns full-time either (but will probably do punt returns).

 

Watson - I like him this year. All those extra weapons outside should open up the underneath stuff for him. He proved last year that he is not very reliable as the #1 target, but I think he could really shine as a role player in the offense. I think he is very good value for where he is being drafted this year.