Drafting from the 4 Spot

[capmeo 0]

I am picking from the 4 spot this year. Gore seems to be the consensus pick at 4--I believe there is a chance that LJ will drop to me and I am also considering Addai here. I would like to hear some opinions.

 

My concerns:

 

Gore- Lost Norv Turner

LJ- Possible Holdout, 400+ carries last year

Addai- Seems like a safe pick, hate to waste a 4 pick on him though, seems too high

 

Standard Scoring- PPR League

[49ER MAN 0]

I am picking from the 4 spot this year. Gore seems to be the consensus pick at 4--I believe there is a chance that LJ will drop to me and I am also considering Addai here. I would like to hear some opinions.

 

My concerns:

 

Gore- Lost Norv Turner

LJ- Possible Holdout, 400+ carries last year

Addai- Seems like a safe pick, hate to waste a 4 pick on him though, seems too high

 

Standard Scoring- PPR League

 

If LJ does not hold out and is available at 4, I'd take him. Yeah, Croyle or Huard will be the starter and yes, he did lose another good o-lineman to retirement, but I believe he'll still put up 1300 yards and 12-15 TD's.

 

Gore did lose Turner, but the offense will basically be the same as last year. Sure he's had some knee injuries in the past, but to me the only concern I have about Gore being a top 5 RB is will he score enough TD's? If you think he will produce double digits, then he should be considered, but if not then I'd pass on him at 4.

 

With Addai, you wonder if Dungy will have another RB give Addai some breathers and therefore cut into his numbers.

 

Tough decision. Good luck.

[LittleGiants78 0]

I am picking from the 4 spot this year. Gore seems to be the consensus pick at 4--I believe there is a chance that LJ will drop to me and I am also considering Addai here. I would like to hear some opinions.

 

My concerns:

 

Gore- Lost Norv Turner

LJ- Possible Holdout, 400+ carries last year

Addai- Seems like a safe pick, hate to waste a 4 pick on him though, seems too high

 

Standard Scoring- PPR League

 

 

Honestly- I think you gotta go Gore-- I have been reading on these boards that Gore will not produce like at the #4 spot like most people are hoping for.. I think he will be just fine-- Nolan is a hell of a coach- they added Staley at the OT position-- They have other weapons in which to get the ball to-Not just Gore. But then again- if LJ does not hold out- he could be really inspired to have a hell of year- even though beseides Gonzalez- is the only true weapon they have on O.. You have to see how the preseason plays out-- Right now- vote goes to Franklin Gore.. I see 1500+yrds-250+rec-10+TD's

[49ER MAN 0]

Honestly- I think you gotta go Gore-- I have been reading on these boards that Gore will not produce like at the #4 spot like most people are hoping for.. I think he will be just fine-- Nolan is a hell of a coach- they added Staley at the OT position-- They have other weapons in which to get the ball to-Not just Gore. But then again- if LJ does not hold out- he could be really inspired to have a hell of year- even though beseides Gonzalez- is the only true weapon they have on O.. You have to see how the preseason plays out-- Right now- vote goes to Franklin Gore.. I see 1500+yrds-250+rec-10+TD's

 

You think Gore will hit double digit TD's? Interesting...

 

If Smith doesn't improve, Gore's TD's stay about the same from last year.

[Gepetto 1,001]

Gore and LJ are better Running Backs then Adaii, so why the he!! would you take Adaii at 4? I'd take Westbrook ahead of Adaii too.

[Big_Pete 0]

trade out of the #4 spot and into the 5th or 6th spot, where you'll be able to grab Addai anyways (probably) and if not, you'll have people who are pretty much on-par with him in Westy(possibly), SA, Henry, Rudi etc....

Plus you may be able to pick up an additional pick, or swap 3rds with the dude as payment

[Me_2006 14]

Gore and LJ are better Running Backs then Adaii, so why the he!! would you take Adaii at 4? I'd take Westbrook ahead of Adaii too.

 

 

Well, it's not completely about the player, as football is a team game. If it were simply a game of talent, how many people would have Kitna on their draft radar? Is he a valuable pick-up in the mid rounds because of his immense talent and athletic ability? Or is it more the fact that Martz is calling the plays and he has two (3 counting Furrey) more than capable WRs in a pass-heavy offense, that skyrockets his potential value?

 

The same can be said in this situation. Obviously LJ is a physical beast, and a Frank Gore that was never injured has a talent potential that is incredibly rare. Either of these RBs in that Indy offense would spark a heavy debate concerning LT2 and his spot atop all draft boards.

 

However, they aren't. LJ is running behind a makeshift O-line with no WR help out wide and a QB who will be starting his first full season regardless of which mediocre guy they choose to put under center in KC. Additionally, Gore plays in San Fran, and while they are undoubtedly better, the evidence that they will score enough points to allow Gore the TD's to warrant a selection in that spot, is still hard to consider concrete.

 

Therefore, a versatile running back who put up very good numbers while splitting carries last year as a rookie, in the most explosive offense in football, with an O-line good enough to embarrass the heralded Bear's D in the most grand stage in football, and a QB who could arguably be the best to ever put on a helmet when he is done, with no immediate threat behind him on the depth chart to do anything more than give him an occasional breather, and who is yet to hit his groove and fully learn the in's and out's of the NFL game seems to be a worth candidate to at least garner consideration at a draft position that is full of questions.

 

That's why the hell I'd consider Addai at 4.

[FlaHawker 24]

I am picking from the 4 spot this year. Gore seems to be the consensus pick at 4--I believe there is a chance that LJ will drop to me and I am also considering Addai here. I would like to hear some opinions.

 

My concerns:

 

Gore- Lost Norv Turner

LJ- Possible Holdout, 400+ carries last year

Addai- Seems like a safe pick, hate to waste a 4 pick on him though, seems too high

 

Standard Scoring- PPR League

I am also picking 4th in a PPR league. Right now, this is my thinking: Brian Westbrook/Joseph Addai/Frank Gore.

 

LJ and SA are not on my radar as of July 8th. That could change a month from now, but in a PPR Westbrook is a beast. Gore and Addai? Well, I like Addai better but neither has Westy's track record of production.

 

trade out of the #4 spot and into the 5th or 6th spot, where you'll be able to grab Addai anyways (probably) and if not, you'll have people who are pretty much on-par with him in Westy(possibly), SA, Henry, Rudi etc....

Plus you may be able to pick up an additional pick, or swap 3rds with the dude as payment

If the 4 spot is so murky, why would someone want to trade up? I get laughed at when I talk trade with owners below me.

[Big_Pete 0]

If the 4 spot is so murky, why would someone want to trade up? I get laughed at when I talk trade with owners below me.

what may be murky to someone, might not be to someone else.

The thing with trading picks, is not to use a jimmy johnson draft value chart.

Don't think that just cause you are giving up the 4th overall to go back 2 spots, that that means you get the dudes 2nd/4th/6th round picks, and swap the 3rd (speculation). THAT will get you laughed at.

However, if you ask the dude to swap places in the 1st and 3rd rounds, then maybe you won't get laughed at.

[jrokh 569]

the 4 spot seems pretty simple to me. If LJ is slips it is reasonable to assume gore would have been the # 3 pick,if so you grab Lj, if not take gore. Anything else right now seems like over-anylization

[Gepetto 1,001]

Well, it's not completely about the player, as football is a team game. If it were simply a game of talent, how many people would have Kitna on their draft radar? Is he a valuable pick-up in the mid rounds because of his immense talent and athletic ability? Or is it more the fact that Martz is calling the plays and he has two (3 counting Furrey) more than capable WRs in a pass-heavy offense, that skyrockets his potential value?

 

The same can be said in this situation. Obviously LJ is a physical beast, and a Frank Gore that was never injured has a talent potential that is incredibly rare. Either of these RBs in that Indy offense would spark a heavy debate concerning LT2 and his spot atop all draft boards.

 

However, they aren't. LJ is running behind a makeshift O-line with no WR help out wide and a QB who will be starting his first full season regardless of which mediocre guy they choose to put under center in KC. Additionally, Gore plays in San Fran, and while they are undoubtedly better, the evidence that they will score enough points to allow Gore the TD's to warrant a selection in that spot, is still hard to consider concrete.

 

Therefore, a versatile running back who put up very good numbers while splitting carries last year as a rookie, in the most explosive offense in football, with an O-line good enough to embarrass the heralded Bear's D in the most grand stage in football, and a QB who could arguably be the best to ever put on a helmet when he is done, with no immediate threat behind him on the depth chart to do anything more than give him an occasional breather, and who is yet to hit his groove and fully learn the in's and out's of the NFL game seems to be a worth candidate to at least garner consideration at a draft position that is full of questions.

 

That's why the hell I'd consider Addai at 4.

 

 

I am aware of all of that, however the talent of LJ and Gore will result in more fantasy points than Addai even with Addai's team advantages. It's just my opinion. I put more weight on talent than situation. Look what LJ did last year with Damon Huard and the loss of Roaf. And look what Gore was able to do with Alex Smith as QB who threw 1 td and 11 ints the prior year. I think it could be argued that the talent alone of LJ and Gore elevated every player on their offensive teams, and will do so again.

 

People let Edge fall to the end of round 1 in fantasy drafts 2 and 3 years ago as they were afraid that he wasn't going to score enough touchdowns b/c Peyton throwing for TDs, although it did seem that Manning was more willing to let the offense run the ball at the goalline. Still, the Chiefs converted in 3rd, 4th, and goalline situation from 1-2 yards out at at 77% success rate, while Indy was succesful 60% of the time. Both teams did have the same amount of success though due to Indy having more attempts in this area. So the goalline is about a wash. Now the total yardage, LJ has proven himself for two years now and Gore for one. Sure, Addai may break out this year, but how will he possibly match the 20+ potential (even likely) touchdowns that LJ will put up. All 3 rbs catch the ball well and should all be very productive in that area. I just think that LJ and Gore have a much higher ceiling and would not want someone drafting below me to pick them up either.

[FlaHawker 24]

what may be murky to someone, might not be to someone else.

The thing with trading picks, is not to use a jimmy johnson draft value chart.

Don't think that just cause you are giving up the 4th overall to go back 2 spots, that that means you get the dudes 2nd/4th/6th round picks, and swap the 3rd (speculation). THAT will get you laughed at.

However, if you ask the dude to swap places in the 1st and 3rd rounds, then maybe you won't get laughed at.

 

The above post is pure sepculation (and incorrect to boot) on your part.

[mdm_1971 0]

Gore..... he will produce and if you think back to last year he had a fumble thing the first half of the season that cut into his tds but he fixed the problem and he has even taken pointers from Lt to drop a few pounds....he will get double digit Tds and ppr he will get you about 50+ catches Gore hands down

[FlaHawker 24]

the 4 spot seems pretty simple to me. If LJ is slips it is reasonable to assume gore would have been the # 3 pick,if so you grab Lj, if not take gore. Anything else right now seems like over-anylization

LJ--has Croyle for a QB, has Herm for a coach; is threatening to holdout; is missing another lineman; is coming off 400+ carries. Just because the guy has an ADP of 3/4, doesnt mean he HAS to be taken there.

[Me_2006 14]

I am aware of all of that, however the talent of LJ and Gore will result in more fantasy points than Addai even with Addai's team advantages. It's just my opinion. I put more weight on talent than situation. Look what LJ did last year with Damon Huard and the loss of Roaf. And look what Gore was able to do with Alex Smith as QB who threw 1 td and 11 ints the prior year. I think it could be argued that the talent alone of LJ and Gore elevated every player on their offensive teams, and will do so again.

 

People let Edge fall to the end of round 1 in fantasy drafts 2 and 3 years ago as they were afraid that he wasn't going to score enough touchdowns b/c Peyton throwing for TDs, although it did seem that Manning was more willing to let the offense run the ball at the goalline. Still, the Chiefs converted in 3rd, 4th, and goalline situation from 1-2 yards out at at 77% success rate, while Indy was succesful 60% of the time. Both teams did have the same amount of success though due to Indy having more attempts in this area. So the goalline is about a wash. Now the total yardage, LJ has proven himself for two years now and Gore for one. Sure, Addai may break out this year, but how will he possibly match the 20+ potential (even likely) touchdowns that LJ will put up. All 3 rbs catch the ball well and should all be very productive in that area. I just think that LJ and Gore have a much higher ceiling and would not want someone drafting below me to pick them up either.

 

 

Fair point. It's just a matter of personal preference really. I was just saying that it's not as simple as dismissing the possibility of Addai being worthy of that spot (or even higher) as you seemed to be doing.

 

Also, I don't see you having to worry about LJ at 4. Regardless of situation, very few owners will have the balls not to take him at the 3 spot.

 

Personally I'd find someone who was high on Alexander, Gore, etc at that 4 spot and trade down and just take Rudi (who gets NO love at all) and just ask for a swap of 2nd round picks or something in return as you would then be left with Rudi and another solid RB or a top 2-3 WR instead of reaching for a pick at 4 and losing out on a top tier #2 RB or one of the elite WRs.

[Ruphus 0]

Boy this subject has been beat up to hell and back the last month or 2.

 

If your in the 4 spot, and you don't feel comfortable making a choice between RB's like LJ, Gore, Addai, SA, Westy.... then trade back to 8-10, take whatever is available of those or FWP, Rudi, Maroney.

 

By trading back that far, you should be able to get at least a 4th round pick from someone that covets a player that high.

 

Otherwise, enjoy that your at the 4 spot, find out which of the RB situations you like most, and take that guy.

 

Me personally, I would rather have the 4 pick and take my choice out of guys like LJ, Gore, Addai, SA and Westbrook. If your back at 8-11, those guys are gone and your looking at FWP, Maroney, Henry and such.

 

Even at 4, if you think Rudi is still the guy to go, take him there, you know what production you will get out of him.

 

But really, just take the guy you feel best about. I would go with Addai, others might take LJ, some will take SA, some will take Gore, and I bet a few might even grab Westbrook and Rudi here as well.

[Portis26 0]

Addai is the 'sexy' pick at #4... but I rather have Gore or LJ.

[capmeo 0]

Boy this subject has been beat up to hell and back the last month or 2.

 

If your in the 4 spot, and you don't feel comfortable making a choice between RB's like LJ, Gore, Addai, SA, Westy.... then trade back to 8-10, take whatever is available of those or FWP, Rudi, Maroney.

 

By trading back that far, you should be able to get at least a 4th round pick from someone that covets a player that high.

 

Otherwise, enjoy that your at the 4 spot, find out which of the RB situations you like most, and take that guy.

 

Me personally, I would rather have the 4 pick and take my choice out of guys like LJ, Gore, Addai, SA and Westbrook. If your back at 8-11, those guys are gone and your looking at FWP, Maroney, Henry and such.

 

Even at 4, if you think Rudi is still the guy to go, take him there, you know what production you will get out of him.

 

But really, just take the guy you feel best about. I would go with Addai, others might take LJ, some will take SA, some will take Gore, and I bet a few might even grab Westbrook and Rudi here as well.

 

 

 

I agree--I like the 4 pick better than trading all the way back. Great input as usual on this board it definitely helps hearing from the experts here.

I am sure this will continue to the subject of debate for weeks to come. Right now I am leaning Gore.

[yodaday 0]

I'll take SA along with his 20+ TDs

[listen2me 23 1,569]

the 4 spot seems pretty simple to me. If LJ is slips it is reasonable to assume gore would have been the # 3 pick,if so you grab Lj, if not take gore. Anything else right now seems like over-anylization

 

Good point.

 

I don't worry about the 4th pick because I have the 1st pick this year!!! (runner up of last season gets to pick where he drafts.)

 

LJ--has Croyle for a QB, has Herm for a coach; is threatening to holdout; is missing another lineman; is coming off 400+ carries. Just because the guy has an ADP of 3/4, doesnt mean he HAS to be taken there.

 

He had Huard last season...who is on the team again and in a QB battle. If he is threatening to holdout still by draft time (late August) then its a problem. Assuming everything is well and good by August he is the pick.

[FlaHawker 24]

Good point.

 

I don't worry about the 4th pick because I have the 1st pick this year!!! (runner up of last season gets to pick where he drafts.)

He had Huard last season...who is on the team again and in a QB battle. If he is threatening to holdout still by draft time (late August) then its a problem. Assuming everything is well and good by August he is the pick.

Things could go really badly for LJ this year. You've been warned. He's not my pick.

[listen2me 23 1,569]

Things could go really badly for LJ this year. You've been warned. He's not my pick.

 

Like last year when he lost O-Linemen.

[Fozzy4 0]

Things could go really badly for LJ this year. You've been warned. He's not my pick.

 

I completely agree. He had a whopping 416 attempts last year, and additionally 41 receptions. That makes 436 FCarries, which is considerably past the point found to be a significant risk for the following season. Expect lower than usual production from him and an increased chance of missing time due to injury since he was so overused in 06. I will be trying hard to avoid him this year, and consider him poor as the 3rd overall pick, most notably from a benefit-risk standpoint.

 

I also think people are too down on SA this year, especially given his FF record in seasons prior to 06. He was 6th RB in 03, and the very best one in both 04 and 05. I would be cautious and see what news (if any) comes out about his foot troubles, but if they can't find any traces of the injury remaining, then for me he would be a lock at #4. He's a proven runner with more elite seasons under his belt than any of the ones being discussed for the #4 pick, and I think if his health looks clear, he should be the hands down favorite here. Addai is an upside pick at #4 being unproven as the lone back, and Gore is not yet in the same league as LT2, SJax, and LJ - a league that Alexander consistently demonstrated he is not only in, but the master of. I expect him to largely return to form, which should mean he places somewhere among the top 4 proven elites, likely displacing Gore.

[FlaHawker 24]

Like last year when he lost O-Linemen.

I don't have a crystal ball, but I am not paying for LJ at 4 (should he slide to me) to find out.

[Zackattack 0]

I am picking 4 in one of my $$ drafts in a month. I think Gore or Addai are my first 2 options right now.

 

Maybe if L.J. signs and there is good news out of K.C I may change my mind.

 

 

S.A. worries me a little with the foot.

 

Addai had a high average per carry too. Like 4.9 or so. That is more than the Edge had ever i believe. Remember 10 catches in the superbowl too.

[TD Ryan2 315]

LJ recorded 2199 total yards and 19 TDs in 2006.

 

Even a 40% reduction in production would put him at 1319 total yards and 12TDs... still a top 10 fantasy RB.

It is mainly LJ's potential hold out that worries me and hopefully we'll know how that plays out long before any real draft.

 

As for the 400 carries and possible injury... IS LJ really any more of an injury risk than SA, Westy, or Gore? I don't think so.

 

 

IMO, if LJ is there at #4, you've got to take him. As long as he isn't holding out, he really isn't any more of a risk than the other 3 guys you'd consider there.

[FlaHawker 24]

S.A. worries me a little with the foot.

Seattle

Shaun Alexander: Never has something the size of a hair gotten so much media attention. The tiny crack in Alexander's foot kept him off the field for six games last season, but he came back with a fury, racking up 201 yards against Green Bay on a Monday night under messy conditions. Is he truly healthy? You bet. The foot is no longer an issue and the time off last year means less overall wear and tear on the body. Alexander has fresh legs (and feet) in 2007 and remains a top-flight back.

 

Stephania Bell is a physical therapist who is an orthopedic clinical specialist and a certified strength and conditioning specialist.

[FlaHawker 24]

LJ recorded 2199 total yards and 19 TDs in 2006.

 

Even a 40% reduction in production would put him at 1319 total yards and 12TDs... still a top 10 fantasy RB.

It is mainly LJ's potential hold out that worries me and hopefully we'll know how that plays out long before any real draft.

 

As for the 400 carries and possible injury... IS LJ really any more of an injury risk than SA, Westy, or Gore? I don't think so.

IMO, if LJ is there at #4, you've got to take him. As long as he isn't holding out, he really isn't any more of a risk than the other 3 guys you'd consider there.

Personally, I try never to draft based on the assumption a player can get injured--all NFL players are an injury risk. However, there are too many other peripherals that suggest buying LJ at # 4 may be too high such as his QB situation, his HC, his contract situation, and his OLINE. My draft isn't until Sept 2, so we'll see how things play out during August.

[Henwah 1]

I am picking from the 4 spot this year. Gore seems to be the consensus pick at 4--I believe there is a chance that LJ will drop to me and I am also considering Addai here. I would like to hear some opinions.

 

My concerns:

 

Gore- Lost Norv Turner

LJ- Possible Holdout, 400+ carries last year

Addai- Seems like a safe pick, hate to waste a 4 pick on him though, seems too high

 

Standard Scoring- PPR League

 

In a PPR, I'd take Addai in a heartbeat! In fact, I'd take him at third this year. With Rhodes gone, an even more potent offense this year, and a worse defense... they are going to be scoring like crazy, and Manning has relealized the importance of dinking and dunking as exemplified in the Superbowl. I think that they'll be using a spread the field, pass oriented offense to keep that defense off the field as much as possible.

[HawgWild 0]

I am not as sold on Gore as most people.. SA and Westy scare me a little with the injury concerns.. I like Addai but 4 seems a little high for him... I guess if I had to pick I would say Addai.. Man that pick is scary!! Hope I don't get a 4 but of course that means I will!!!

[FlaHawker 24]

I am not as sold on Gore as most people.. SA and Westy scare me a little with the injury concerns.. I like Addai but 4 seems a little high for him... I guess if I had to pick I would say Addai.. Man that pick is scary!! Hope I don't get a 4 but of course that means I will!!!

Unfortunately, once LT and SJAX go off the board, there is no player that seems equal to the value at picks 3 and 4. In other words, there is no real "safe" pick. LJ, Gore, Addai, SA, and Westbrook seem to be the consenus choices at that spot. I am not going to look at a player, say an Addai, and not draft him because # 4 is too high for him. It may or may not be. Last year I took Ronnie Brown at 9. In hindsight, that was too high. Take the guy in the best offensive situation. Everyone is going to have a different opinion on this but for me, sitting here in July and playing in a PPR league, my choices are Westy, Gore, and Addai. SA doesn't catch enough balls anymore and LJ is not in a good offensive situation. Barring injury, Westy, Gore, and Addai should all be top 10 in points so while there may be no sure thing at 4, I don't think the choices are too terrible either.

[0021 0]

LJ then Westbrook......

[fantasymasterWalker 0]

I am not as sold on Gore as most people.. SA and Westy scare me a little with the injury concerns.. I like Addai but 4 seems a little high for him... I guess if I had to pick I would say Addai.. Man that pick is scary!! Hope I don't get a 4 but of course that means I will!!!

 

I couldn't have said it better myself. I feel the same way about Westy and SA and I like Addai, but he is unproven. Right now I can pick anywhere from 4-12 in a 12 team redraft league. Spots 1-3 are already taken. I can't decide what pick to take. I want Addai and I think I can get him later in the 1st but if he got snatched up before it got to me at 6 or later I would be mad.

[Dr. Octopus 0]

Personally, I try never to draft based on the assumption a player can get injured--all NFL players are an injury risk. However, there are too many other peripherals that suggest buying LJ at # 4 may be too high such as his QB situation, his HC, his contract situation, and his OLINE. My draft isn't until Sept 2, so we'll see how things play out during August.

 

His HC (although not a great NFL coach) is a factor in LJ's favor. He's not a RBBC guy and is conservative by nature meaning he will run, run and pass if he has to. Herm Edwards certainly didn't hurt LJ last season from a FFB approach at least; whether he did him permanent damage from all those carries is another story.

[HawgWild 0]

I couldn't have said it better myself. I feel the same way about Westy and SA and I like Addai, but he is unproven. Right now I can pick anywhere from 4-12 in a 12 team redraft league. Spots 1-3 are already taken. I can't decide what pick to take. I want Addai and I think I can get him later in the 1st but if he got snatched up before it got to me a 6 or later I would be mad.

[/quot

 

I agree.. I would lean towards picking 6 but I would also be pissed if Addai went at 5!! I say go with 4 and grab Addai.. I really look for him to put up some great numbers in that offense... Good luck!!

[Fozzy4 0]

Where does all this stuff about not being sold on Gore come from? Gore was 4th last year, in spite of having less carries than 6 of the top 10 RBs. He's part of an offense that is obviously on an upswing too. If someone wants to tell me how that translates into him being worse off somehow this year, feel free... but I don't really think you can successfully argue that. He also had a fumbling problem last year, which was something they fixed during the course of the season, so that should be an advantage this year too. So I have to ask, how can anyone in their right mind put him anywhere past the same performance he had last year, unless it is to suggest that SA will recover enough to push Gore to 5? That an inexperienced Addai under full workload for the first time could break the expected LT2, SJAX, LJ, SA, and Gore out of the top 5 sounds utterly ridiculous to me. I say don't bet on a horse in a mile race if all you've seen it run is a quarter mile, and clearly Adddai is a such a quarter-mile horse. OTOH we saw Gore run his mile, and he came in 4th. The highest Addai got was 11th, and that was in a situation totally different than the one he'll see this year. Gore's situation is largely unchanged, which is another plus. With such a high pick, I think it's your duty to select a proven performer, since spending the pick on an unproven RB can backfire so hard - you don't have any idea what you're actually getting. Addai requires a lot of upside to get to the value of a 3rd or 4th pick during this season, where all Gore has to do is run exactly like we already saw him run for a full season. That should make all the difference.

 

@ the guy who has to pick 4th or later: I would probably go 6th, and take whichever of LJ, Gore, SA, and Addai drops to me there. There shouldn't be too many pts separating any of those 4 guys this year (theoretically), so you are likely getting the most value in the six-spot, esp since your 2nd rd pick improves.