#1 pick this year

[DamageIncVacc 6]

Last night my league picked cards and I got the ACE. so I got #1 this year. Most years it was a slam dunk LT. This year lots of choices.

 

I got it down to consideration " LT . Peterson , S Jackson , Westbrook , Addai

 

Seriously considering LT, Peterson, Jackson, Westbrook

 

Probally decding between LT and Peterson

 

And picking .....

 

ANyone else who already know that they are picking #1 , whats your thioughts so far. I know things can change .

 

My pros for LT are hes the best, pass catching and in my league the LT owner has been to the superbowl all 6 years and the LT Owner has won the championship 5 of them. I actually was the LT owner 2002-2003-2004-2005 and went to the championship all 4 years and won 4 champinships in a row so I have a incredible history with him. The only con is that in all 4 of my championship I couldnt use LT in the champinship as he didnt play much in week 16-17 the last few years . even last year he was out of the game (week 16 ) by half time.

 

Pros with Peterson is that he is simply amazing and can brak 200 yards and 3 TD's at any point. and theres always the chance of him having the greatest season a running back has ever had and riding that to the championship. cons we all know. injuries , chester etc.

 

Thought from other #1 ( and even #2) pick owners.

[coyote-kid 0]

Last night my league picked cards and I got the ACE. so I got #1 this year. Most years it was a slam dunk LT. This year lots of choices.

 

I got it down to consideration " LT . Peterson , S Jackson , Westbrook , Addai

 

Seriously considering LT, Peterson, Jackson, Westbrook

 

Probally decding between LT and Peterson

 

And picking .....

 

ANyone else who already know that they are picking #1 , whats your thioughts so far. I know things can change .

 

My pros for LT are hes the best, pass catching and in my league the LT owner has been to the superbowl all 6 years and the LT Owner has won the championship 5 of them. I actually was the LT owner 2002-2003-2004-2005 and went to the championship all 4 years and won 4 champinships in a row so I have a incredible history with him. The only con is that in all 4 of my championship I couldnt use LT in the champinship as he didnt play much in week 16-17 the last few years . even last year he was out of the game (week 16 ) by half time.

 

Pros with Peterson is that he is simply amazing and can brak 200 yards and 3 TD's at any point. and theres always the chance of him having the greatest season a running back has ever had and riding that to the championship. cons we all know. injuries , chester etc.

 

Thought from other #1 ( and even #2) pick owners.

 

Wow!! You really need to ask this question??

[DamageIncVacc 6]

Well yeah . LOL. Im torn between LT and Peterson. The potential of Peterson VS the Greatness of LT. not as easy I I first thought when I turned over the ACE.

[WhiteWonder 2,248]

never schedule a fantasy championship game in week 17. everything should be wrapped up by week 16 to try and avoid teams resting players. i know it can still happen in week 16 but its at least a little less likely.

 

in any case go with LT. he is better in a PPR league. honestly so is westbrook and its a tossup between jackson and ADP depending on how you think the STL offense will rebound and if Jacksons holdout wont be an issue.

[Manifest Destiny 0]

The added combination of experience and proven durability make Tomlinson the safer choice.

[martyj13 1]

I have the #1 pick and I'm going LT. He's proven. AP is not. AP is a big risk with a high ceiling. But is his ceiling going to be that much more than LT's if all works out? It's basically a gamble to take AP as proven last year. I'm not willing to gamble the # 1 pick.

[throttlers 0]

I just got the #1 pick in a league. I traded it. I believe the 1st 2 rounds you really need to avoid risk. That puts LT definitely ahead of ADP in my opinion. Remeber, your 1st 2 picks don;t usually win it for you, but they can lose it for you. ADP hasn;t staid healthy a full season in college or in the pros. Is there a chance he could put up better #s than LT? Sure there is, but how much better? Enough to take a risk that he will only play 8-12 games? LT is bound to eventually start seeing a decline in production and more injuries. Wiull it be this year after 7 300+ carrie seasons? There are no signs to indicate any problems with LT aand if I were picking #1 I would take him. However, I chose a safer route and dropped down to #6. I got an extra 2nd round pick, where I think there is great value this year, for my end of the 4th round pick. I will get a pick at 6 that is a bit safer than LT or ADP. I know all the guys in this leangue and I am pretty sure our draft is going to go LT, ADP, S-Jax, Westy, Gore. This leaves me with probably drafting Addai although I have considered Barber or Brady. I think any of these 3 are safer picks than LT or ADP. With the 2 2nd round picks, I will go best player available.

[Turcaso 1]

I just got the #1 pick in a league. I traded it. I believe the 1st 2 rounds you really need to avoid risk. That puts LT definitely ahead of ADP in my opinion. Remeber, your 1st 2 picks don;t usually win it for you, but they can lose it for you. ADP hasn;t staid healthy a full season in college or in the pros. Is there a chance he could put up better #s than LT? Sure there is, but how much better? Enough to take a risk that he will only play 8-12 games? LT is bound to eventually start seeing a decline in production and more injuries. Wiull it be this year after 7 300+ carrie seasons? There are no signs to indicate any problems with LT aand if I were picking #1 I would take him. However, I chose a safer route and dropped down to #6. I got an extra 2nd round pick, where I think there is great value this year, for my end of the 4th round pick. I will get a pick at 6 that is a bit safer than LT or ADP. I know all the guys in this leangue and I am pretty sure our draft is going to go LT, ADP, S-Jax, Westy, Gore. This leaves me with probably drafting Addai although I have considered Barber or Brady. I think any of these 3 are safer picks than LT or ADP. With the 2 2nd round picks, I will go best player available.

 

Getting the second pick in round 2 is one thing. Saying the 6th pick is safer than LT or ADP is rediculous.

[throttlers 0]

Getting the second pick in round 2 is one thing. Saying the 6th pick is safer than LT or ADP is rediculous.

 

So you believe that LT or ADP are the safest picks in the 1st round? I wouldn't call you rediculous, but I would strongly disagree that they are the safest picks. They may have the highest upside, but they are certainly not the picks with the least amount of risk.

[DamageIncVacc 6]

Way I see it is there a risk in every pick. Jackson could do terrible behind that line, gore could get so few carries in Martz system , portis was over worked last year . Westbrooks knee or whatever could finally give. Peterson could te hurt again etc but I agree that if you have the #1 pick and a player like LT with his history OR a player like Peterson is ther with his potential ( look what numbers he put up in so few games and yes that does mean he was injured for a few) that its is the safer play . I mean if you drop last year and say draft Jackson or LJ insteadof LT . ( IT was done in my league , dude took jackson isntead of LT ) its the bigger risk than taking the 1 sure thing or the 1 possible new superstar. I definelt y are not saying you are ridiculous but I think dropping from the #1 spot is not a great route.. Not with LT or peterson there. and I am talking about dropping past 4. Sure if you like jackson so much so drop 1-3 and draft him thats cool but to go pass the top 3-4 guys is not a safer play in my opinion.

[Zackattack 0]

L.T.

 

I have the number one and I will take him. Don't think about it too much.

[9-Route 0]

another way to look at it:

 

unlike reality, where you don't wanna be the guy that selected sam bouie ahead of olajuwon and jordan, this is fantasy: sure, you could select tomlinson, but why not try to be the guy who selected peterson and the greatest/most special run season ever? it's not like calling out 'thomas jones' at 1.1 and getting ridiculed....

[DamageIncVacc 6]

I am leaning to Peterson and I agree . At our draft order meeting there were votes for LT , Peterson and Westbrook as #1 so you cant be ridiculed if you select 1 of them 4 . Now if I said I was taking Maurice Drew Jones at #1 ( hes my favoite back and I will be wearing his jersey at this years draft ) then I would be ridiculed. Thats the only bad thing for me at #1 . I want him as my #2 back with LT or Peterson and cant get him , will be gone by the time it gets back to me.

[martyj13 1]

another way to look at it:

 

unlike reality, where you don't wanna be the guy that selected sam bouie ahead of olajuwon and jordan, this is fantasy: sure, you could select tomlinson, but why not try to be the guy who selected peterson and the greatest/most special run season ever? it's not like calling out 'thomas jones' at 1.1 and getting ridiculed....

 

That's why they call is gambling.

[9-Route 0]

That's why they call is gambling.

 

bingo!

[Joey Gladstone 33]

another way to look at it:

 

unlike reality, where you don't wanna be the guy that selected sam bouie ahead of olajuwon and jordan, this is fantasy: sure, you could select tomlinson, but why not try to be the guy who selected peterson and the greatest/most special run season ever? it's not like calling out 'thomas jones' at 1.1 and getting ridiculed....

 

Sam Bowie was only selected ahead of Jordan. Hakeem was the 1st pick that year.

[Little Big Head 6]

I took Sjax #1 in a redraft league this year based on the strength of Al Saunders history and Jacksons talent. The holdout just means no injury. Hes going to rip up the league this season

[49ers_suck 0]

imo, you gotta take LT #1. he is the #1 RB in the NFL. if you wanna get cute with the first pick and go with ADP or SJAX or Westy, go for it. the guy at #2 will be thanking you.

 

your other option would be to try and trade down. you might get someone in your league who is willing to give you a nice trade. is this a 10 teamer or 12 teamer?sorry if you already said, i cant remember

[TheBlade 3]

imo, you gotta take LT #1. he is the #1 RB in the NFL. if you wanna get cute with the first pick and go with ADP or SJAX or Westy, go for it. the guy at #2 will be thanking you.

I don't think he is the clear-cut #1 draft choice this year, nor do I think the guy sitting at #2 will be "thanking you" if you choose to pass on LT2. Granted, LT2 has been the most consistent RB over the last 6-7 years, and has been remarkably injury-free over that time frame. But, his streak of dominance has to end sometime, and history dictates that it's coming up very soon. I already talked about some of LT2's risk factors in another thread. Highlights: 1) currently there are a handful of RBs in the league that have four years of over 300 carries. Eddie George is the only back to have 8 seasons of 300+ carries, which LT2 is trying to match this year, and George definitely declined due to that workload.

 

I'm not saying that LT2 falls out of the top-10 this year, nor that he's a lock to miss extended time due to injury (which you can't predict anyways) because he very easily could be the one the defies the odds, but to say that he doesn't have risk attached to him as the lock-down #1 pick just flies in the face of common sense and ignores the realities of toting the rock in the NFL for extended periods of time.

 

If you take the risk-factors of all of the potential top picks into consideration, and then decide that LT2 still provides the best opportunity to be successful compared to the other candidates based on your league, then go with him and hope next year or the year after that reality catches up to him.

[49ers_suck 0]

I don't think he is the clear-cut #1 draft choice this year, nor do I think the guy sitting at #2 will be "thanking you" if you choose to pass on LT2. Granted, LT2 has been the most consistent RB over the last 6-7 years, and has been remarkably injury-free over that time frame. But, his streak of dominance has to end sometime, and history dictates that it's coming up very soon. I already talked about some of LT2's risk factors in another thread. Highlights: 1) currently there are a handful of RBs in the league that have four years of over 300 carries. Eddie George is the only back to have 8 seasons of 300+ carries, which LT2 is trying to match this year, and George definitely declined due to that workload.

 

I'm not saying that LT2 falls out of the top-10 this year, nor that he's a lock to miss extended time due to injury (which you can't predict anyways) because he very easily could be the one the defies the odds, but to say that he doesn't have risk attached to him as the lock-down #1 pick just flies in the face of common sense and ignores the realities of toting the rock in the NFL for extended periods of time.

 

If you take the risk-factors of all of the potential top picks into consideration, and then decide that LT2 still provides the best opportunity to be successful compared to the other candidates based on your league, then go with him and hope next year or the year after that reality catches up to him.

fair enough, but with all due respect, E.George is no LT2.

 

LT is bound to break down soon, but i'm not thinkin this yr. reasons? SD is a fave for the SB. i'm thinkin LT has a big yr. he wants the ring. remember he set the TD record only 2 yrs ago. SD has a top notch defense, and their offense is no slouch. Rivers a yr older. Chambers, Gates, V.Jackson catching his passes.

 

AP is an injury waiting to happen. and while a stud, no doubt, his points came is spurts. high risk, high reward, imo. SJAX, who i am pretty high on, has a ton of questions. varying from injuries, to overall offensive output. Westy is a stud, but he's perpetually questionable to start. is this the yr that westy breaks down?

[jrdaman 0]

I say pick who you like to watch the most, who is the most exciting! If it was me, I would take Mr Purple Jesus. This is like the old Emmitt Smith vs Barry Sanders debate, and I would take Sanders over Emmitt every year no doubt!

 

LT is closing in on 30---uh ohh!

ADP is young and fresh to def! (I don't care about injury risk, everyone has that!)

 

I'm not saying LT sucks, I just think that he is on the downside of his career and could fall out of the top five RB's this year, whereas ADP is on the upside of his career!

[coyote-kid 0]

L.T.

 

I have the number one and I will take him. Don't think about it too much.

 

Zack,

 

I can't believe this thread is still going and being debated.

Oh my god!!!!!

[rjfras 0]

I'm considering Westy at number 1 in my ppr league, even missing one game last year, he still finished the year as the number one RB (not by much, but still finished #1 with only 15 games). I was worried about LT last year and more so this year. I was also looking at S-Jax, but his holdout is reminding me too much of LJ last year... AP i'm not buying yet, too many big hit and big miss games along with Chester there and injuries. Like someone else said, they all have current injuries or past injuries to worry about.. LT, Westy, S-Jax, ADP, even Addai and Portis if you are looking at top 5.

 

Last year in our scoring system the top 5 RBs were:

 

Westy 373

LT 371

Addai 279

Portis 277

ADP 254

 

 

Even if Westy and LT drop a bit this year, ADP still has to make up close to 100 points to be even with them...

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

I see it every year. Too many FFballers spend TOO much time thinking about their 1st round pick when the MOST important picks are from round 3-7...that's when leagues are really won or lost.

 

As for your question...

LT - Safe Pick

ADP - Alot of risk but there's a chance he might do something 'special' this year

[rjfras 0]

I see it every year. Too many FFballers spend TOO much time thinking about their 1st round pick when the MOST important picks are from round 3-7...that's when leagues are really won or lost.

 

As for your question...

LT - Safe Pick

ADP - Alot of risk but there's a chance he might do something 'special' this year

I'm well aware of where the leagues are won or lost, but it doesn't mean you don't spend some time on the early rounds.. though that is one reason why i prefer the number 3 or 4 hole, taking who is left and not spending as much time on it.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

I'm well aware of where the leagues are won or lost, but it doesn't mean you don't spend some time on the early rounds.. though that is one reason why i prefer the number 3 or 4 hole, taking who is left and not spending as much time on it.

 

What is there to think about?

Is there anyone really worth taking ahead of LT or ADP?

Just take LT and start game planning the rest of your draft.

[rjfras 0]

What is there to think about?

Is there anyone really worth taking ahead of LT or ADP?

Just take LT and start game planning the rest of your draft.

Dude, if your just gonna be an *#% and not contribute to the actual topic, please take your posts somewhere else. First, my draft isn't until September. Second, I've been working on my draft plan for a while now, I just found out my draft position. Sorry to burst your geeky bubble (that's what happens when the keep track of post count, people with large post counts, think they are know-it-alls, when alot of it is just putting people down to make themselves feel better, but there are other options besides LT and ADP depending on your scoring system, whether your in a keeper league, what your gut is telling you about certain players....

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

What is there to contribute!!

This ranks as one of the dumbest questions every year in these forums. "#1 PICK, WHO DO I TAKE?"

 

First off, this should be in the "HELP" board. 2nd, do you really NEED someone to analyze and debate WHO to take at number 1 in YOUR OWN scoring system?

You didn't post your scoring system, so EVERYONE would assume it's the standard scoring system...right?

 

I already summarize it in 2 short sentence. It's the same summary in 20 fantasy football magazine out there.

 

LT - The safe Pick

ADP - The skies the limit

[rjfras 0]

What is there to contribute!!

This ranks as one of the dumbest questions every year in these forums. "#1 PICK, WHO DO I TAKE?"

 

First off, this should be in the "HELP" board. 2nd, do you really NEED someone to analyze and debate WHO to take at number 1 in YOUR OWN scoring system?

You didn't post your scoring system, so EVERYONE would assume it's the standard scoring system...right?

 

I already summarize it in 2 short sentence. It's the same summary in 20 fantasy football magazine out there.

 

LT - The safe Pick

ADP - The skies the limit

lol.. who reads outdated fantasy football magazines?

 

btw, this wasn't even my thread, I was responding to the OP, giving him my thoughts that he asked for from others who were in the #1 or #2 slot... I never asked for help in who to take, I was telling him who I was considering and why..

 

"Reading comprehension for the win!"

[BoltAddiction 0]

I got first pick and I haven't been struggling with this one despite popular sentiment to the contrary. Its made easier for me since its a new dynasty league and a young Peterson has more longevity than an aging LT. I'm also a Charger fan, so its easier for me to watch the game when I'm not worrying about how my RB is doing as opposed to the team.

 

But for all of those who say that this is a no brainer, give me a break! Every year turns out to be a brainer. Two years ago Shaun Alexander was the no-brainer over LT - who had the better year? Just in this decade, Marshall Faulk was the only guy in Tier 1 and Priest Holmes smoked him. Priest Holmes turns out to be the only guy in Tier 1 and Ricky Williams outrushed him. Nearly every year, the pre-season number one guy doesn't perform as the No.1 guy. Of course, they generally will be in the top 5 and I don't expect anything less from LT this year, but there is never a no-brainer which could put an end to this topic.

 

I agree with jrdaman : just pick who you want to watch the most!