Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall

[G-String 0]

Where do you draft Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall? And would you dare draft both on them on your tem with them being out for the 2 games each.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

im not sure id be able to draft both of them...

 

if you ignore smith's concussion concerns, i wouldnt take either of them much later than normal due to suspension. When they return they will still be Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall and should play accordingly.

 

obviously if you have them ranked closely with some other players they may fall to the back of those tiers due to missing 2 and 3 games respectively but I don't think i would start drafting guys from a lower tier.

[FlaHawker 24]

I'm not changing my projections and I am not moving them down my draft board. My reason is simple. If I were to draft both, I lose them for the first two games. Hopefully, I can draft a few Bernard Berrian types later and survive those first two weeks. After that, you have two monster WRs avaialble for the rest of the year (assuming no injury or off-field problems). I'd risk the first two weeks to benefit later.

[Ricky's Swami 0]

im not sure id be able to draft both of them...

 

if you ignore smith's concussion concerns, i wouldnt take either of them much later than normal due to suspension. When they return they will still be Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall and should play accordingly.

 

obviously if you have them ranked closely with some other players they may fall to the back of those tiers due to missing 2 and 3 games respectively but I don't think i would start drafting guys from a lower tier.

 

 

Has anyone heard anything about Brandon Marshall getting his suspension reduced to just 2 games by going to counseling or whatever was required?

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Has anyone heard anything about Brandon Marshall getting his suspension reduced to just 2 games by going to counseling or whatever was required?

 

he can have it reduced to 2 and i would hope he does but for now im just assuming its 3

[jocstrap 8]

I'm not changing my projections and I am not moving them down my draft board. My reason is simple. If I were to draft both, I lose them for the first two games. Hopefully, I can draft a few Bernard Berrian types later and survive those first two weeks. After that, you have two monster WRs avaialble for the rest of the year (assuming no injury or off-field problems). I'd risk the first two weeks to benefit later.

 

 

Now add Denver's bye week - 8

Now add Panther's bye week - 9

 

Fantasy Football goes to week 13

 

Marshall misses 4 out of 13 = 30.77 % of Fantasy Football Season - - 8th round for me - I need production - our bench points also is the decider if there is a tie. 4 games is a turn off

 

Smith misses 3 out of 13 = 23.77 % of Fantasy Football Season, not as bad as Marshall and at least you could have him going 3rd week if he's not concussed . 3 guaranteed misses is still substantial. I'm saying late 4th then it would be hard not to. He'll be gone by then if I were a betting man.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Now add Denver's bye week - 8

Now add Panther's bye week - 9

 

Fantasy Football goes to week 13

 

Marshall misses 4 out of 13 = 30.77 % of Fantasy Football Season - - 8th round for me - I need production - our bench points also is the decider if there is a tie. 4 games is a turn off

 

Smith misses 3 out of 13 = 23.77 % of Fantasy Football Season, not as bad as Marshall and at least you could have him going 3rd week if he's not concussed . 3 guaranteed misses is still substantial. I'm saying late 4th then it would be hard not to. He'll be gone by then if I were a betting man.

 

bye weeks are relative. you cant tack an extra game on to them missing time because of bye weeks. every other player has a bye week so its still only 2 weeks for smith and 3 for marshall that we are concerned with.

 

also many seasons go 14 weeks with championship in week 16.

 

the basic fact i point to is that once both are on the field they should be back to themselves fantasy production wise. and youll have them for the bulk of your season and your playoffs.

[timozbuck 4]

Now add Denver's bye week - 8

Now add Panther's bye week - 9

 

Fantasy Football goes to week 13

 

Marshall misses 4 out of 13 = 30.77 % of Fantasy Football Season - - 8th round for me - I need production - our bench points also is the decider if there is a tie. 4 games is a turn off

 

Smith misses 3 out of 13 = 23.77 % of Fantasy Football Season, not as bad as Marshall and at least you could have him going 3rd week if he's not concussed . 3 guaranteed misses is still substantial. I'm saying late 4th then it would be hard not to. He'll be gone by then if I were a betting man.

 

 

 

[jocstrap 8]

bye weeks are relative. you cant tack an extra game on to them missing time because of bye weeks. every other player has a bye week so its still only 2 weeks for smith and 3 for marshall that we are concerned with.

 

also many seasons go 14 weeks with championship in week 16.

 

the basic fact i point to is that once both are on the field they should be back to themselves fantasy production wise. and youll have them for the bulk of your season and your playoffs.

 

 

Well, they won't be on the field that week + they had their respective suspensions -- I still add them up as 3 and 4 over the course of a season.

 

It's a FACT Steve Smith will not be on the field for 3 weeks

It's a FACT Brandon Marshall will not be on the field 3/4 weeks

Bye's have to count.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Well, they won't be on the field that week + they had their respective suspensions -- I still add them up as 3 and 4 over the course of a season.

 

It's a FACT Steve Smith will not be on the field for 3 weeks

It's a FACT Brandon Marshall will not be on the field 3/4 weeks

Bye's have to count.

 

i will explain it in a different way... the poster is asking where you draft smith and marshall NOW, based on the concerns surrounding them... AKA their suspensions.

 

Without these suspensions both smith and marshall miss a week due to bye just like any other player.

 

the only added games they miss that would warrant dropping them in the rankings are the games they will miss due to suspension.

 

sure its a fact they miss 3 and 3/4 weeks when you add in bye weeks. Its just not a relevant fact.

[cavern 70]

for whatever it's worth - with no suspension i would have viewed these guys as ~3rd rounders. this year (yes we drafted early) i took marshall in the 4th after getting r moss and c johnson in the 1st 3 rounds.

 

we start 2 wr and a flex. my thoughts are that i'll go with moss, johnson, and a rb in the first few and then marshalll should be a flex spot/bye week monster for me after that

[cavern 70]

for whatever it's worth - with no suspension i would have viewed these guys as ~3rd rounders. this year (yes we drafted early) i took marshall in the 4th after getting r moss and c johnson in the 1st 3 rounds.

 

we start 2 wr and a flex. my thoughts are that i'll go with moss, johnson, and a rb in the first few and then marshalll should be a flex spot/bye week monster for me after that

[KSB2424 3,083]

Well, they won't be on the field that week + they had their respective suspensions -- I still add them up as 3 and 4 over the course of a season.

 

It's a FACT Steve Smith will not be on the field for 3 weeks

It's a FACT Brandon Marshall will not be on the field 3/4 weeks

Bye's have to count.

This dumb. All the players will miss one week so you can't count that. Therefore there are 12 available weeks for every NFL player in the FF regular season. S.Smith misses 2 of them so he will miss 16.7% of the games and Marshall misses 3 out of 12 which is 25%. Just sayin'.

[Apollo Creed 9]

 

 

 

Marshall misses 4 out of 13 = 30.77 % of Fantasy Football Season - - 8th round for me - I need production - our bench points also is the decider if there is a tie. 4 games is a turn off

 

Smith misses 3 out of 13 = 23.77 % of Fantasy Football Season, not as bad as Marshall and at least you could have him going 3rd week if he's not concussed . 3 guaranteed misses is still substantial. I'm saying late 4th then it would be hard not to. He'll be gone by then if I were a betting man.

 

 

i wouldnt draft smith till 4th round, marshall 5-6... this dude cant stay outta trouble.. i dont trust him..

[mobb_deep 917]

I think it really just comes down to projected production. It's not really rocket science guys.

 

Lets say pre-suspension you had Brandon Marshall projected out to 100 catches for 1300 yards and 8's TD (278 FF points in PPR). That works out to approximately 6 catches for 81 yards and 1/2 TD per game. Now subtract those two weeks away from your projections and you end up with 88 catches for 1140 and 7 (244 FF points in PPR).

 

For myself personally, using those projections that would move him from the tier of guys I've similarly projected like Fitz and Housh down with guys like Plax (72/1050/10 = 237 FFP's) and Roy Will (80/1200/7 = 242).

 

Take your projections, average them out, subtract the two games, and insert him back in. Rinse and repeat for Steve Smith.

 

I swear it's like some of you just look at a list of guys and move them all around depending on what other people say.

[KSB2424 3,083]

I think it really just comes down to projected production. It's not really rocket science guys.

 

Lets say pre-suspension you had Brandon Marshall projected out to 100 catches for 1300 yards and 8's TD (278 FF points in PPR). That works out to approximately 6 catches for 81 yards and 1/2 TD per game. Now subtract those two weeks away from your projections and you end up with 88 catches for 1140 and 7 (244 FF points in PPR).

 

For myself personally, using those projections that would move him from the tier of guys I've similarly projected like Fitz and Housh down with guys like Plax and Roy Will.

 

Take your projections, average them out, subtract the two games, and insert him back in. Rinse and repeat for Steve Smith.

 

I swear it's like some of you just look at a list of guys and move them all around depending on what other people say.

I don't really like that. You also need to take into account Marshalls sub for those 2 weeks if you are going to rank him against everyone else. These guys are gonna be weekly starters for 90% of owners. So what you really should do is project Brandon Marhalls 6rec 81yards and 1/2TD and add in a projected WR4's stats that you would have to start in his place for those 2 games. Maybe some thing like 3rec for 50 yards and 1/3TD's.

 

Over the course of the season you are projecting that one of your WR starting positions if you draft Marshall will be 94 rec for 1240 and 7.67 TD's. Plug that number into your WR rankings and see if he falls any.

[mobb_deep 917]

I don't really like that. You also need to take into account Marshalls sub for those 2 weeks if you are going to rank him against everyone else. These guys are gonna be weekly starters for 90% of owners. So what you really should do is project Brandon Marhalls 6rec 81yards and 1/2TD and add in a projected WR4's stats that you would have to start in his place for those 2 games. Maybe some thing like 3rec for 50 yards and 1/3TD's.

 

Over the course of the season you are projecting that one of your WR starting positions if you draft Marshall will be 94 rec for 1240 and 8TD's. Plug that number into your WR rankings and see if he falls any.

 

That's a good point. In reality you're just taking what I said a step further. Orfcourse there's tons of other factors to consider too. Would you need to spend an earlier pick on what you thought was a more consistent WR4. Or maybe you play in a league that only starts 2 WR / 2 RB / and FLEX. In that case it would be easier to pick up a 3RD WR for fill that spot for those 2 weeks.

 

I'm just trying to explain how this can all be done with simple math and common sense. You don't need to say "Oh I won't draft this or that player until X round or Y round" without really understanding how the suspension affects him in relation to other players.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

I think it really just comes down to projected production. It's not really rocket science guys.

 

Lets say pre-suspension you had Brandon Marshall projected out to 100 catches for 1300 yards and 8's TD (278 FF points in PPR). That works out to approximately 6 catches for 81 yards and 1/2 TD per game. Now subtract those two weeks away from your projections and you end up with 88 catches for 1140 and 7 (244 FF points in PPR).

 

For myself personally, using those projections that would move him from the tier of guys I've similarly projected like Fitz and Housh down with guys like Plax (72/1050/10 = 237 FFP's) and Roy Will (80/1200/7 = 242).

 

Take your projections, average them out, subtract the two games, and insert him back in. Rinse and repeat for Steve Smith.

 

I swear it's like some of you just look at a list of guys and move them all around depending on what other people say.

 

read what i bolded. now tell me how his per game production changes..

 

per game brandon marshall plays he will score as much as he was projected to score per game before the suspension. His total season output will be less but if you think your team can survive for 2 weeks without him, once he returns you will have the same value.

[mrgymrat 0]

Most certainly if you can get Smith in the 3rd or 4th round as a #2 wr then it's worth it. Same with Marshall if he's available in the 6th-8th rounds.

 

As your #1 wr... No.

[KSB2424 3,083]

That's a good point. In reality you're just taking what I said a step further. Orfcourse there's tons of other factors to consider too. Would you need to spend an earlier pick on what you thought was a more consistent WR4. Or maybe you play in a league that only starts 2 WR / 2 RB / and FLEX. In that case it would be easier to pick up a 3RD WR for fill that spot for those 2 weeks.

 

I'm just trying to explain how this can all be done with simple math and common sense. You don't need to say "Oh I won't draft this or that player until X round or Y round" without really understanding how the suspension affects him in relation to other players.

 

Pretty much. I don't really don't drop these two guys missing 2 games THAT much. Essentially what you are missing is the difference as to what Steve Smith would score in an average week to what a WR4 would score. While it may be the difference in a win or not, the differential is fairly minimal. In fact it is entirely possible that your WR4 blows up that week, which is one of the beauties of fantasy football. Plus, as long as they are there for the playoffs when I desperatly need them I' good with it.

 

The extra two weeks actually gives Smith more time to recover fully from his concussion.

[jocstrap 8]

This dumb. All the players will miss one week so you can't count that. Therefore there are 12 available weeks for every NFL player in the FF regular season. S.Smith misses 2 of them so he will miss 16.7% of the games and Marshall misses 3 out of 12 which is 25%. Just sayin'.

 

 

ahhh, well all I know is that Marshall will not play week 1,2,3(maybe),and week 8

Smith will not play week 1,2, and 9

 

Everbody has their drafting point - some will take these guys earlier, it won't hurt my feelings when they don't land on my team this year. Just another couple of names like this on Jocstrap's cheat sheet - - Smith, Marshall

 

Steve Smith is 4th round for me

Marshall is 8th round for me

 

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

ahhh, well all I know is that Marshall will not play week 1,2,3(maybe),and week 8

Smith will not play week 1,2, and 9

 

Everbody has their drafting point - some will take these guys earlier, it won't hurt my feelings when they don't land on my team this year. Just another couple of names like this on Jocstrap's cheat sheet - - Smith, Marshall

 

Steve Smith is 4th round for me

Marshall is 8th round for me

 

 

i dont think anyone is disputing the fact that they may or may not fall on some peoples draft boards.

 

The problem I had was adding their bye week on to the time they are missing due to suspension as an argument. Since each player has a bye week, them missing that game should have no bearing on their value in relation to other players.

[jocstrap 8]

i dont think anyone is disputing the fact that they may or may not fall on some peoples draft boards.

 

The problem I had was adding their bye week on to the time they are missing due to suspension as an argument. Since each player has a bye week, them missing that game should have no bearing on their value in relation to other players.

 

 

I'll just be tired of Marshall's 4th bye week and Smith's 3rd bye week

[SMath3333 10]

This is a marathon, not a sprint. It's all about making the Playoffs, and peaking at that time. Just ask the NY Football Giants!

 

Going into the Playoffs, I'd rather have a Steve Smith or Brandon Marshall on my team than be facing an opponent with one of those two studs.

 

While it is possible that having to substitute a Mushin Muhammed or Bernard Berrian in for two weeks might possibly cost you a game or two due to the differential in production between Smith/Marshall versus Berrian/Muhammed, it is less likely than you think. There are usually 16-18 "players" on the FF "field" at once. Here are some possibilities, of which one is very likely to happen in any given week;

 

1. The rest of your team kicks arse anyway, and you beat your opponent even with Smith or Marshall on the bench.

2. Your team sux that week, and having Smith or Marshall in the line-up wouldn;t have helped anyway.

3. Your opponent has a monster week, and would have beat you even with Smith or Marshall in the line-up.

4. Your opponent has a really bad week, and you kick his arse anyway.

 

.. and then there is always the possibility that you play the match-ups and the WR4 that you plug in goes off

 

My point is, having to bench Smith or Marshall for two games (... not including bye week) will only cost you if the score that week is really, really close and the differential between a WR1 and WR4 production ends up costing you. Even if it does hurt you, all I can say is if that game costs your team getting into the Playoffs, then your team sucked anyway.

 

I may move Smith or Marshall down a slot or two on my draft board, but I am actually targetting getting one of these studs (but not both!).

[akareckas 0]

This is a marathon, not a sprint. It's all about making the Playoffs, and peaking at that time. Just ask the NY Football Giants!

 

Going into the Playoffs, I'd rather have a Steve Smith or Brandon Marshall on my team than be facing an opponent with one of those two studs.

 

While it is possible that having to substitute a Mushin Muhammed or Bernard Berrian in for two weeks might possibly cost you a game or two due to the differential in production between Smith/Marshall versus Berrian/Muhammed, it is less likely than you think. There are usuall 16-18 "players" on the FF "field" at once. Here are some possibilities, of which one is very likely to happen in any given week;

 

1. The rest of your team kicks arse anyway, and you beat your opponent even with Smith or Marshall on the bench.

2. Your team sux that week, and having Smith or Marshall in the line-up wouldn;t have helped anyway.

3. Your opponent has a monster week, and would have beat you even with Smith or Marshall in the line-up.

4. Your opponent has a really bad week, and you kick his arse anyway.

 

.. and then there is always the possibility that you play the match-ups and the WR4 that you plug in goes off

 

My point is, having to bench Smith or Marshall for two games (... not including bye week) will only cost you if the score that week is really, really close and the differential between a WR1 and WR4 production ends up costing you. Even if it does hurt you, all I can say is if that game costs your team getting into the Playoffs, then your team sucked anyway.

 

I may move Smith or Marshall down a slot or two on my draft board, but I am actually targetting getting one of these studs (but not both!).

 

This makes a lot of sense to me. In all 4 of my leagues I'm pretty confident of making the playoffs. Drafting what I perceive to be the best team down the road makes a lot more sense than worrying about my starting lineup in week 1 and 2.