Please explain to me. WHY WHY WHY do people draft a kicker/defense before the last 2 rounds?

[edjr 6,898]

Guy that drafted the Chargers in the 6th in my league...record is 1-1 but 9th of 10 in pts scores, only victory was against the 10th of 10 guy who lost Tom Brady the opening week. I drafted 8th of 10 and have scored 143 more pts than him...more proof positive me thinks Ed.

 

I think people smart enough to not pick a defense or kicker too early, are probably just better at fantasy football and just have a better knowledge

[WhiteWonder 2,927]

I think people smart enough to not pick a defense or kicker too early, are probably just better at fantasy football and just have a better knowledge

 

i don't often agree with you but amen to that

[donhaas 19]

Knowing you're on the side of drafting defenses early, just soldifies how bad of an idea it is.

 

Notice how I said for a FACT I drafted Philip Rivers this year in a spot people were drafting defenses? he's using James Jones?

 

 

I didn't read the whole thing; I just read where you drafted a defense 15th and a kicker 16th.... That's what I'm going on.... If the stupid-asses in your Married With Children FF league draft defenses early, then yes, they are dumbasses.... Just like you are a dumbass for drafting back-ups to back-ups over a starting position (defenses) in the 11-14th rounds.

 

HTH!!!!!

[cubbie5150 0]

If you're in $$ leagues & have fellow owners stupid enough to do stuff like this, just shut your mouth & collect your money every year. I am in 2 relatively "large" (amount) of $$ leagues. I WISH other owners would some of the stuff I see you guys posting about.

[gocolts 300]

tastes greta less filling

[edjr 6,898]

tastes greta less filling

 

I never understood that argument.

 

if they are both true that's one thing.

 

what were talking about, only 1 can be correct.

[gocolts 300]

I never understood that argument.

 

if they are both true that's one thing.

 

what were talking about, only 1 can be correct.

 

I almost always wait till the last two rounds. Never have I reached for a D in the middle of the draft, let alone even earlier like some seem to think is a good idea.

[De Novo 0]

Know? hah, right. cause the "experts" said so?

 

I had the 4th pick and Jackson was on the board.

 

I traded the pick packaged with my 11th rounder, for another guys 2nd and 3rd rounder.

 

he had 2 1st round picks... SJAX and Manning

Congrats on taking the opportunity to ignore his point and brag only moments after pointing out this was an actual intelligent discussion.

[De Novo 0]

Again, it's about value...it's why I undervalue QB's vs RB's and WR's and why I'd rather stock up on 3 RB's and 3 WR's and research/guess/gamble that I can hit a QB or two late to make up for it. Here's an example...and a good contrast...

 

TEAM A - #1 Pick - 10 Team Draft:

Adrian Peterson (MIN)

Reggie Bush

Carson Palmer

Calvin Johnson

Torry Holt

San Diego Chargers

Lee Evans

Maurice Morris

Roddy White

Heath Miller

Shayne Graham

Kenny Watson

 

TEAM B - #8 Pick - 10 Team Draft:

Marshawn Lynch

Reggie Wayne

Andre Johnson

Michael Turner

Brandon Marshall

Kevin Smith ®

Jay Cutler

Jonathan Stewart ®

Santana Moss

Chris Perry

Philip Rivers

Pittsburgh Steelers

 

I only went 12 rounds deep there, until both teams had a defense. In theory the #1 team should not only have better starters (by virtue of picking more top palyers earlier) but should also have better depth. However, two dynamics occurred here: First, picking a top flight QB (unless you pick McNabb) usually creates a false sense of security by causing someone to think "Well, I only need a backup QB for one game this year, his bye week, right?". The other thing is that going too early on a position where scarcity isn't an issue creates real issues elsewhere...standard 1/2/2/1 w/ 1 Flex lineup

 

TEAM A:

QB: Palmer

RB: Peterson, Bush

WR: Cal Johnson, Torry Holt

TE: Heath Miller

Flex: Lee Evans, Roddy White, Maurice Morris or Kenny Watson

Def: Chargers

 

TEAM B:

QB: Cutler or Rivers

RB: Lynch, Turner

WR: Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson

TE: John Carlson

Flex: Brandon Marshall, John Stewart, Kevin Smith, Santana Moss or Chris Perry

Def: Steelers

 

So, I ask, who's team has better balance and depth? Going early on the QB for the most part, and the Defense all the times not only puts all your eggs in that position in one basket, it shifts eggs from other positions into that basket as well. The big difference is that you can typically know with some surety which QB will perform like a top QB, whereas defenses are a complete wildcard with too many variables to make them consistent. The points variation between the #1 QB and the #10 or #12 QB may be the same as the points variation between #1 and #10 or #12 defense, but the consistency with which a projected #1 QB attains or gets near that level is much higher than it is for a projected #1 defense.

You picked better players. Has nothing to do with draft position. If he took Brees in the 3rd or you replaced Cutler with, say, Hasselbeck, the story would be different. This just proves he picked a crappy QB and you picked a good one.

[killersquids 3]

I'll turn this around and say what the fock is wrong with your league? Was it built by someone with no regard for balance?

 

I don't know about your league's scoring system, but mine was built to make all positions important. Defenses are a legitimate position. It's not unusual for a top defense to score in the top 30 of all positions. Bad defenses score negative points every few weeks. Having a good defense is a huge advantage over someone who has a bunch of bums. We see defenses start to get picked after round 6. If you call it right, they are well worth it.

 

I don't know why anyone would want to be in a league where positions have such low value as yours. To me, that's piss poor engineering. Not all positions have to be equal, but they shouldnt be meaningless. If you really think it's flat-out stupid to draft before the last two rounds, that just suggests that your league's rules stink. I'd adjust scoring to give the positions some value, or just drop those positions altogether. I feel the same way about old-school TD only rules. Those are stupid and archaic, and have no place in an internet run fantasy world.

 

 

Disagree completely. Defenses are near impossible to predict year to year, so awarding more points to them only increases the luck factor. According to your logic, the top field goal kickers should score similar to the top position players. So is a 30 yd FG worth 5 points in your league? A 40-yd FG is worth 6 points? If not, you're calling your own league "piss poor engineering".

 

I agree that most positions should be balanced in scoring, but defense and kickers are the exception b/c they are so random.

[Ramsfan13 0]

I have Tennesee and Chicago (different leagues) that I drafted before the last 2 rounds, maybe not Tennessee. But I get at least 15 per week out of that point slot every week, more points than I get for a RB or WR that I will never start.

 

I do pick a kicker last everytime though.

[swirvenirvin 25]

exactly.

 

Some people draft 2 TEs, 2 Kickers and 2 Ds

 

that's a waste of 3 picks

 

In leagues with 16 roster spots if I get a top TE I won't draft a second, but one with 17 spots I grabbed Sheffler in maybe the 15th round, this week I traded him for Kevin Smith. In my 20 man roster keeper leagues I will also draft 2 defenses

[WhiteWonder 2,927]

Disagree completely. Defenses are near impossible to predict year to year, so awarding more points to them only increases the luck factor. According to your logic, the top field goal kickers should score similar to the top position players. So is a 30 yd FG worth 5 points in your league? A 40-yd FG is worth 6 points? If not, you're calling your own league "piss poor engineering".

 

I agree that most positions should be balanced in scoring, but defense and kickers are the exception b/c they are so random.

 

 

dont waste your breath, i tried telling that chromeweasel dude that you can inflate defense scoring all you want to have them up there with normal position players but it wont change the fact that the diffeerence between the top 2 and middle of the pack defenses is minimal. The main argument for waiting on a D is the relative value at the position, not compared to OTHER positions.

 

If what he means is that he works his scoring to make certain defensive categories more important than others in order to set "top defenses" apart from the rest then in essence he is purposely skewing his scoring system. not only do I think that is retarded but it would be a very rare scenario.

 

most leagues have standard rules for defenses. a point for a sack, 2 for an INT or Fumble recovery (some break it into a point for a forced fumble and a point for a recovered), 2 points for a safety, 6 for a TD, 2 for a blocked kick and various amounts of diminishing fantasy points based on score they let up. Then there are return TD's.. Personally the leagues i run, defenses are just defenses. return TD's go to the individual player just as field goals and extra points go to the individual kicker.

[FantasyKing 4]

Always happens in my league too, someone takes a kicker in the 12th round or so and like a herd of cattle, usually 4-5 guys follow and get their kicker as well. I waited til the last round and got Ryan Longwell.

 

Last I checked I had the #1 kicker and 7 out of the top 10 scorers for kickers were undrafted.

 

Some leagues give more points to defenses so they warrant taking a good D early. But even those are very unpredictable, always good ones at the end and on waivers.

[Franknbeans 46]

Can we change the thread title to: "edjr needed to brag about his draft and his team yet again even though his team sucks"?

 

and he's not even the best team in his league all-time. Weak.

[kwyjibo 0]

Part of the reason is that teams had a crappy kicker the year before and think they will get a leg up on the competition by taking the first one. To me that's incredibly dumb because you never know who the top kicker is going to be. My second kicker almost always outscores my first kicker. And that is NOT by design.

 

Defenses I can somewhat understand, because you can reasonably project the better defenses, but there is such little difference between the top defense and the 15th defense that it hardly justifies the reach.

 

But I encourage the trend. Nothing makes me happier than seeing guys bid six bucks for a defense while I'm trying to save money to pick off quality WRs for $2 or $3 at the end of the auction.

[Irish Hand Grenade 0]

To answer your question, I've read a few articles detailing people that claim they can dictate the flow of fantasy football drafts. Now, this might take some people who really don't know much about what is going on, but the point was valid just the same. Some of these so called experts would draft a defense with a mid round pick just to see other owners feel pressured and follow up by taking one. Same goes for kickers. One owner took a kicker with a mid round pick only to see his pick triggered off 3 picks after him do the same. I think for some, it can be strategy, others, just ignorance.

[WhiteWonder 2,927]

To answer your question, I've read a few articles detailing people that claim they can dictate the flow of fantasy football drafts. Now, this might take some people who really don't know much about what is going on, but the point was valid just the same. Some of these so called experts would draft a defense with a mid round pick just to see other owners feel pressured and follow up by taking one. Same goes for kickers. One owner took a kicker with a mid round pick only to see his pick triggered off 3 picks after him do the same. I think for some, it can be strategy, others, just ignorance.

 

the only thing that does is prove you can set trends.. its not giving you any advantage. im sure its true but its kind of like good for those guys?

[urmother 0]

for defenses i looked at matchups for the first 2 weeks and found 5-6 teams i liked based on playing weak offenses. 3 of them were also good defenses that i knew wouldn't be around late. that left me with 2-3 defenses that i figured would go undrafted that i liked. pick - round 16, arizona. but i would have gone as early as round 14 if it looked likely i wouldn't get a matchup i liked for week 1. but i'm still excited about guys like kevin walter, sidney rice, + eddie royal in the late rounds of my drafts. unfortunately i was deciding between rice and royal in round 14 for my last non kicker/defense roster spot and chose wrong.

[jgcrawfish 232]

To answer your question, I've read a few articles detailing people that claim they can dictate the flow of fantasy football drafts. Now, this might take some people who really don't know much about what is going on, but the point was valid just the same. Some of these so called experts would draft a defense with a mid round pick just to see other owners feel pressured and follow up by taking one. Same goes for kickers. One owner took a kicker with a mid round pick only to see his pick triggered off 3 picks after him do the same. I think for some, it can be strategy, others, just ignorance.

 

all that does is give guys who don't follow trends better value their pick. While the fool in my league as picking his defense in the 6th, I was still pulling starting RB down. By the time his 8th round pick came, all the starting RB's were gone, but lemme tell you, there was PLENTY of valuable defenses left there. Anybody who doesn't understand this needs to take a refresh course on supply and demand...

 

Let's assume the following league: 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1K/1DEF/1FLEX (RB/WR/TE) 10 team league.

 

Everybody knows that RB's get hurt and are by far in greater demand than any other position. In addition to the two starters, most teams will try and get 2 backups and maybe an extra RB for Flex spot, but some will rotate in WR in that spot too. So for argument sake let's say that 1/2 the league goes for a 5th RB while the other 1/2 opts for WR to fill the flex spot.

 

2 Starting RB x 10 teams

2 Backup RB x 10 teams

1 Flex RB x 5 teams

 

Math says that's 45 rb's taken. Honestly, this bears out as I just went and looked in my 10 team, 16 round draft with those same position requirements and 53 RB's were taken. Let's assume that 1/2 the teams in the league employ an RBBC of some form...thus 32 starters + 1/2*(32) = 48. Essentially 45/48 of the top RB's will be taken, where as even if every team in the league drafts 2 Defenses (which the never do) you still are only taking 20 of the top 32 available defenses. In my 10 team league, only 5 teams took a 2nd defense, meaning less than 1/2 of the available defenses were taken. Bills, Giants, Redskins and Cardinals, who are all currently ranked in the top 12 were all still on the board, meaning that of the 15 picked, many aren't even a top defense right now.

 

Again, there is no reasonably sound way to predict a top defense before the season and there is no value in sacrificing an RB or WR propect for one.

[WhiteWonder 2,927]

all that does is give guys who don't follow trends better value their pick. While the fool in my league as picking his defense in the 6th, I was still pulling starting RB down. By the time his 8th round pick came, all the starting RB's were gone, but lemme tell you, there was PLENTY of valuable defenses left there. Anybody who doesn't understand this needs to take a refresh course on supply and demand...

 

Let's assume the following league: 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1K/1DEF/1FLEX (RB/WR/TE) 10 team league.

 

Everybody knows that RB's get hurt and are by far in greater demand than any other position. In addition to the two starters, most teams will try and get 2 backups and maybe an extra RB for Flex spot, but some will rotate in WR in that spot too. So for argument sake let's say that 1/2 the league goes for a 5th RB while the other 1/2 opts for WR to fill the flex spot.

 

2 Starting RB x 10 teams

2 Backup RB x 10 teams

1 Flex RB x 5 teams

 

Math says that's 45 rb's taken. Honestly, this bears out as I just went and looked in my 10 team, 16 round draft with those same position requirements and 53 RB's were taken. Let's assume that 1/2 the teams in the league employ an RBBC of some form...thus 32 starters + 1/2*(32) = 48. Essentially 45/48 of the top RB's will be taken, where as even if every team in the league drafts 2 Defenses (which the never do) you still are only taking 20 of the top 32 available defenses. In my 10 team league, only 5 teams took a 2nd defense, meaning less than 1/2 of the available defenses were taken. Bills, Giants, Redskins and Cardinals, who are all currently ranked in the top 12 were all still on the board, meaning that of the 15 picked, many aren't even a top defense right now.

 

Again, there is no reasonably sound way to predict a top defense before the season and there is no value in sacrificing an RB or WR propect for one.

 

your even understating the RB value because 32 +1/2*32 is too many. instances such as mjd/taylor last year or lendale/chris johnson this year are pure splits taking away 1 of those 32 starter spots your suggesting. Im sure there are more this year that im not thinking of.... oh DeAngelo/stewart

[LunaTick 30]

It used to be when my leagues scoring for kickers was (and also before we changed are yardage scoring to count every yard.)

less than 41 = 3pt

greater than 51 = 7 pts

in between was 5 pts

 

 

For before that, an Elam could score consistently enough to be worth about the same as a qb every week

In this situation, if you didn't get a type two tier qb, was a way to make up the difference.

 

Since the scoring change, I now look for teams with good offenses I think will struggle with a reliable kicker.

As long as a couple of those are there, I wait as long as I can.

 

But if scoring were ever to revert. And an Elam type kicker existed. I would draft around round 8 for those kind of points.

[Quickolas1 80]

just as a general statement,

 

its amazing how many people play fantasy football but still don't understand value based drafting. and i dont mean the excel spreadsheet vbd, i just mean point differential by position (kicker for example, the differential especially considering standard deviation, is zero).

 

those are the ignorant who take a highly ranked kickers in round 8. they just don't have the logic.

 

is it slightly greater with defense, which does justify taking D earlier (than a kicker for example....value based drafting), which i'd bet that those saying they wait until the last 2 rounds....take their D in the second last rd and kicker in the last round.

 

i find it even more pronounced in fantasy baseball and basketball although its a slightly different issue. when you get to round 20, for example, in a baseball draft and there are 2 players left on the board who you almost took with your 19th pick because everyone else is lost in crappy cheetsheets or ill-prepared value positions (ex. if you don't take an early second baseman - like chase utley - you can basically wait until one of the very last rds to take a 2b because all the rest suck and the #12 2b WILL be there).

[McPaul 0]

I used to think that a D/K/TE had to be drafted at the very end to get better mid-round picks.

 

but this year I drafted:

 

Chicago at 7.16

Gostkowski at 8.1

Tony Scheffler at 10.1

 

In the 48 picks (3 rounds) following those players I could have gotten:

 

Fred Taylor?

Philip Rivers?

Julius Jones?

Rudi Johnson?

John Kitna?

Vince Young?

Rashard Mendenhall?

Tedd Ginn?

 

And would any of these be on my starting roster today? No.

 

It's fairly rare that one would trade for a D/K midway through the season as they just don't seem to be involved in trades, so why be stuck with a shitty defense?

 

San Fran and KC were the best defenses I could have gotten had I waited til the last round.

 

and btw I am 2-0, and last week scored our league high of 144 points.

 

I think I'm doing quite well off so far.

[WhiteWonder 2,927]

I used to think that a D/K/TE had to be drafted at the very end to get better mid-round picks.

 

but this year I drafted:

 

Chicago at 7.16

Gostkowski at 8.1

Tony Scheffler at 10.1

 

In the 48 picks (3 rounds) following those players I could have gotten:

 

Fred Taylor?

Philip Rivers?

Julius Jones?

Rudi Johnson?

John Kitna?

Vince Young?

Rashard Mendenhall?

Tedd Ginn?

 

And would any of these be on my starting roster today? No.

 

It's fairly rare that one would trade for a D/K midway through the season as they just don't seem to be involved in trades, so why be stuck with a shitty defense?

 

San Fran and KC were the best defenses I could have gotten had I waited til the last round.

 

and btw I am 2-0, and last week scored our league high of 144 points.

 

I think I'm doing quite well off so far.

 

A. your not concerned with the players taken after you chose your kicker d and TE your concerned with the players you could have had while you were taking those.

 

B. Even if those players might not be starting for you today, the positions of QB RB and WR are more valuable and therefore it is important to have solid backups. Injuries happen all the time at these positions plus bye weeks or a general lack of production.

 

C. One of the main arguments made for waiting to take a kicker or D is that you most likely will end up with a GOOD one... Tennesse for example at D this year and I think someone already mentioned that 2 of the top 3 kickers at this point went largely undrafted. Couple this with history which shows the top kicker and defense have not repeated that feat in the last 3 or 4 years and it does not support taking a defense or kicker as high as alot of people do.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

Somebody in my league took Folk in the 3rd round, and that was the kicker I was looking to get. I got Rob Bironas of Tennessee in the 13th round and both the Indy defense and the Baltimore defense in the 14th and 15th rounds. I couldn't have picked up McNaab in round 8 if I was trying to get a better defense. Since the draft I've cut the Indy defense for the Carolina defense which got cut for the Buffalo defense. I'm starting Buffalo this week. I've cut Rob Bironas too. I now have Prater, the guy for Denver kicking. I got Prater off waivers as well. To me, I see no real benefits of drafting a kicker or defense early, because a new, good defense or kicker always pops up every year. It's all about utilizing the waiver wire.

[ZeroTolerance 584]

Gould at 188 and Buffalo at 203, which allowed me to draft guys like Kurt Warner, Chris Johnson, and Jonathon Stewart.