Brian Westbrook: RB, Philadelphia Eagles

[Kilroy 0]

- Brian Westbrook - Yr 2006 | 15 G | 14 GS | 240 Car | 1217 Yds Ru (5.1 ypc) | 7 TD | 77 Rec | 699 Yds Rec (9.1 ypr) | 4 TD

............................ - Yr 2007 | 15 G | 15 GS | 278 Car | 1333 Yds Ru (4.8 ypc) | 7 TD | 90 Rec | 771 Yds Rec (8.6 ypr) | 5 TD

............................ - Yr 2008 | 14 G | 14 GS | 233 Car | 936 Yds Ru (4.0 ypc) | 9 TD | 54 Rec | 402 Yds Rec (7.4 ypr) | 5 TD

 

What's the board's thoughts?

[Belushi 9]

I voted stepping down. I think all of the knee and ankle problems catch up to him this year, and if McCoy turns out to be decent they'll be more inclined to rest Westy up more during the season. At 30 and with the injury problems he's had (not all have kept him from playing), I won't be taking a chance on him this year.

[dehaven123 31]

Yeah, too risky for me this yr.

Combination of progressing age, frequencies of injuries, and games played are catching up to Westy.

Not sure if this yr is the fall off, but if I had to be pinned down, it would be yes.

It would not surprise me to see McCoy get 200 carries this yr.

[Kilroy 0]

I gotta admit I'm a little surprised by the votes for Westbrook so far. I guess his age and the presence of McCoy have a lot of people down on him heading into '09.

 

I looked at his yards per carry (4.0) and yards per catch (7.4) from last year and figure those averages are gonna rise for him this season. His yards per catch average was the lowest of his career by more than a full yard. His yards per rush was the lowest it's ever been since he posted a 3.9 average in 2005 - a season in which he missed 4 games.

 

There is no doubt that the ankle injury Westbrook dealt with last year was reason for his average yards per touch dropping off so much. I was actually surprised he was able to play through it as well as he did. You could tell it definately slowed him down though.

 

I see the presence of McCoy as a good thing for Westbrook. It should keep him fresher, and as a result healthier, which in turn should mean his yards per touch will rise. He still has too much talent for me to believe he is washed up, but we'll find out soon enough.

 

My main concern with Westbrook is that his TD total may drop off, but even then he should be good for about 10 total between rushing and receiving TDs.

[Gepetto 987]

I have Westbrook finishing just ahead of LT. Both will be outstanding.

[jdon 28]

I looked at his yards per carry (4.0) and yards per catch (7.4) from last year and figure those averages are gonna rise for him this season. His yards per catch average was the lowest of his career by more than a full yard. His yards per rush was the lowest it's ever been since he posted a 3.9 average in 2005 - a season in which he missed 4 games.

 

just curious, why would you thnk that a full yard per catch decline and thelowest ypc in four years would mean anything other than him hitting a wall?

 

IF I know anythign about fantasy football it is this: when a running back hits the wall they are done, and it happens quickly... I doubt Westy finishes this year with 200 carries and 50 catches...

jdon

[Kilroy 0]

just curious, why would you thnk that a full yard per catch decline and thelowest ypc in four years would mean anything other than him hitting a wall?

 

IF I know anythign about fantasy football it is this: when a running back hits the wall they are done, and it happens quickly... I doubt Westy finishes this year with 200 carries and 50 catches...

jdon

 

I realized some may look at it that way. And that could certainly be the case. My reasoning though is the fact I saw Westbrook play a lot last year.

 

Even with a bum ankle he was still a well above average player and valuable part of the Eagles offense. After an entire offseason of rest, his ankle I have to assume won't be an issue. If it isn't, then he should be better this year than he was last season in my opinion.

 

My previous post elaborates more on other reasons as to why I think he could be better this year than he was last year. I'd be surprised if he doesn't average at least 12 carries a game (which would be 192 carries on the season) and reach at least 50 receptions. He's too big of a cog in the Eagles offense not to finish with at least that many touches.

[karmarooster 0]

just curious, why would you thnk that a full yard per catch decline and thelowest ypc in four years would mean anything other than him hitting a wall?

 

IF I know anythign about fantasy football it is this: when a running back hits the wall they are done, and it happens quickly... I doubt Westy finishes this year with 200 carries and 50 catches...

jdon

 

This is it right here. when a RB slips below 4.0 YPC its a sign that he's about to break down. remember Eddie George with the cowboys?

 

I don't see Westbrook as any more useful than RB2 or a Flex RB play right now, depending on the size of your league. Age, injury risk, YPC, fewer receptions, Rookie RB... it's too much risk for westbrook to be a top 10 pick. he does make a good 2nd round selection tho.

 

i'm expecting about 1,000 yards total, 40 receptions, and 8 TDs.

 

So there's the LT vs. Westbrook thread... i say LT.

 

What about Westbrook vs. Portis? I gotta go with Portis.

[Kilroy 0]

I normally agree on all the points people are making for why to doubt a 30-year old RB coming off a down year (and lets remember he still posted 14 total TDs and over 1300 total yards in a "down" year) - but Westbrook isn't the same runner as an Eddie George, or Jerome Bettis, Clinton Portis, or even a LaDanian Tomlinson. He hasn't amassed nearly the same amount of wear and tear on his body as those types of backs have.

 

Westbrook is fast and quick - he isn't a power runner. He doesn't rely on muscling his way through tacklers. He relies on shooting through a hole and then setting up a defender to go one way while he goes the other. He very rarely has taken a brutal hit or a bunch of wear and tear repeatedly.

 

And for as much as people think of him as injury prone, he really has been fairly durable throughout his career. A bum ankle would slow down any player. He played on it for most of the season and still had good numbers.

 

If he's healthy at the start of the year, he should be able to post 1500+ total yards and reach 9-12 TDs in my opinion. I may change my mind if reports at mini-camp suggest he has lost a step, but for now I think he'll at least match the production he had in '08.

[Franknbeans 46]

I gotta admit I'm a little surprised by the votes for Westbrook so far. I guess his age and the presence of McCoy have a lot of people down on him heading into '09.

 

I looked at his yards per carry (4.0) and yards per catch (7.4) from last year and figure those averages are gonna rise for him this season. His yards per catch average was the lowest of his career by more than a full yard. His yards per rush was the lowest it's ever been since he posted a 3.9 average in 2005 - a season in which he missed 4 games.

 

There is no doubt that the ankle injury Westbrook dealt with last year was reason for his average yards per touch dropping off so much. I was actually surprised he was able to play through it as well as he did. You could tell it definately slowed him down though.

 

I see the presence of McCoy as a good thing for Westbrook. It should keep him fresher, and as a result healthier, which in turn should mean his yards per touch will rise. He still has too much talent for me to believe he is washed up, but we'll find out soon enough.

 

My main concern with Westbrook is that his TD total may drop off, but even then he should be good for about 10 total between rushing and receiving TDs.

 

On the one hand, the results are surprising but on the other hand, every season he seems to be underrated and people wrtie him off as being too injury prone. I agree that McCoy will benefit Westbrook and he will stay healthier than he has in year's past thus leading to increased production. I may not grab him in every league I am in but I certainly won't shy away from him if he's available.

[dhockster 0]

I think people are also forgeting that the Eagles went into last season with both starting WR's injured for the first couple of games. They also got minimum help from their TE's (LJ Smith sucked and Celek did not come on until late in the season). That put a lot of pressure on Westbrook and allowed other teams to key on him which caused the pounding which caused his injuries.

I think having Desean, Curtis, Celek, Ingram, or Weaver as other options will keep the defense more honest which will allow Westbrook to do what he does best, work one on one in space.

 

From a fantasy perspective I could see him getting less touches but he should also be more productive with those touches. I would not overpay for him, but if he falls, I would look to make him a good value pick.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

i think this year will be more of the same for WesTy. He will miss a few games and have some monster games... owners will need to monitor his health. I think McCoy will both hurt and help him in different ways so overall, not much of an impact on Westbrooks fantasy numbers.

[mobb_deep 917]

On the one hand, the results are surprising but on the other hand, every season he seems to be underrated and people wrtie him off as being too injury prone. I agree that McCoy will benefit Westbrook and he will stay healthier than he has in year's past thus leading to increased production. I may not grab him in every league I am in but I certainly won't shy away from him if he's available.

 

I think it's the fact that this guy is a nightmare to own. I love Westy as a player, but I'll let someone else deal with the fantasy headache.

[adam smitty 0]

I went with staying put. He is still one of the most talented backs in the league, and will not just get replaced by some 2nd round pick. Having a young, solid backup could end up helping Westy more in the long run. With that said, he is still a risk to miss a few games each year, which bumps him a few spots down my list..

[Fumbleweed 426]

If matching last year is the criteria for staying put, then I definitely think that's what he'll do. I think a lot of people are voting in this thread negatively in response to the idea that Westbrook will not match his best years. Well, last year wasn't one of those. He's got enough left in the tank to match last year's numbers. Health (as always with him) is the concern.

[Gepetto 987]

If matching last year is the criteria for staying put, then I definitely think that's what he'll do. I think a lot of people are voting in this thread negatively in response to the idea that Westbrook will not match his best years. Well, last year wasn't one of those. He's got enough left in the tank to match last year's numbers. Health (as always with him) is the concern.

 

Based on points per game numbers last year, Westbrook was near the top of the league for fantasy ppr RBs.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Based on points per game numbers last year, Westbrook was near the top of the league for fantasy ppr RBs.

 

8th among RB's in ppr's.

[GhostofMeanMachine99 1]

I voted up not because I'm a homer, but simply because he won't have to log as many downs, pick up as many blitzes as he did last year.

 

The offensive line, if completely healthy, will give him room to run. Additional weapons on offense should take some of the pressure off of him.

 

I see him with less touches per game but better optimization per touch (increased YPC, more TD opps).

 

At least 1600 total yards from scrimmage and 12 TD's.

[jerryskids 5,206]

If matching last year is the criteria for staying put, then I definitely think that's what he'll do. I think a lot of people are voting in this thread negatively in response to the idea that Westbrook will not match his best years. Well, last year wasn't one of those. He's got enough left in the tank to match last year's numbers. Health (as always with him) is the concern.

I'd take him later in round 1 in my PPR redraft league. Non-ppr tho, it would have to be a hella bargain value. Just too much risk to be my #1 IMO.

[nick_242 0]

personally i love brian westbrook. i had him in 2 leagues last year. he is still a stud in PPR leagues. but he had too many subpar games last year. he basically only played in 13 games (i am not counting 5carries vs Pitts) in those games he had 6 games he scored(standard scoring) less than 10 points and 2 games less than 15..(Now his other 5 games were awesome over 21pts each). but typically you can't have your #1RB score a 5(vs NYG), a 7( vs CIN), or a 3(vs BAL) and win for that week. you need some consistency from that #1 guy. 7 of his 14TD's came in two games.. but with all that being said i think will hang tight at around 1200 yards and 10 or 11 TD's.

 

in PPR leagues, he is still a mid first round pick, but in standard scoring i would say late second round..

 

 

 

P.S. did i mention i have a huge man crush on westbrook... so if i get the chance i will probably draft him earlier..

[jocstrap 8]

I voted staying put 1300 total yards and 14 td's is a solid number. I think the addition of OT Jason Peters, WR Maclin, and Rb McCoy has to help the offense. Westy is still the main man and will get his chances again this year. I see similar numbers.

[cblue 0]

LT> Westy

[Melissa Stark 1]

Westy is a tough one to assess.

 

I'm gonna say. slightly lower. Not on Westy's play himself.

 

Mostly on the fact that the Offense is being re-vamped. Mainly the line.

[MDC 5,891]

I think he'll roughly stay put. I'd guess Westbrook's carries decline to around 200-225 but he'll have a higher YPC and more receptions and receiving yards. If I had to guess, I'd have him slated for around 1,000 yards rushing and 500 receiving plus 12 TDs or so. I expect the Eagles will overall run the ball a little more and McCoy will get more touches than Buckhalter has the past few seasons. I also think Leonard Weaver will be more involved in the offense than any FB in the Andy Reid era.

[breadtree 0]

I think people are also forgeting that the Eagles went into last season with both starting WR's injured for the first couple of games. They also got minimum help from their TE's (LJ Smith sucked and Celek did not come on until late in the season). That put a lot of pressure on Westbrook and allowed other teams to key on him which caused the pounding which caused his injuries.

I think having Desean, Curtis, Celek, Ingram, or Weaver as other options will keep the defense more honest which will allow Westbrook to do what he does best, work one on one in space.

 

Yeah, I really like the fact that Curtis will be healthy all season, Jackson will be another year more experienced, they added Jason Peters, and they added Jeremy Maclin. That's a fairly sizable upgrade in offensive talent, and RBs for good offenses score points

[Lionsjunkie 1]

I think it's the fact that this guy is a nightmare to own. I love Westy as a player, but I'll let someone else deal with the fantasy headache.

 

Two years ago he was the 4th highest scorer in my league and only 10 points from being #2...far behind Brady that year but so was everybody.

 

Last year he ranked 21st in scoring in my league and played injured with a bum ankle....not bad for a guy that was hobbled all year.

 

Gotta love me this "nightmare" as he has done me very well in my Dynasty League.

 

Staying Put ~ I think he'll be healthier and still be productive but also think he'll lose just enough touches and goal line carries that his numbers won't differ too much from last year.

[GhostofMeanMachine99 1]

Westy is a tough one to assess.

 

I'm gonna say. slightly lower. Not on Westy's play himself.

 

Mostly on the fact that the Offense is being re-vamped. Mainly the line.

 

So your theory is that because the offensive line was revamped (for the better, I might add), that Westbrook's numbers will suffer a bit?

 

 

BTW, neither tackle last year could run block, and they played virtually all year without Shawn Andrews. Eventually, they wound up with 3rd stringer Nick Cole taking over the RG spot, after Jean-Gilles went out late in the season.

[dcgangstas 41]

I'd say staying put, even though Westy's going to hit the magic 30-year old mark on Sept. 2nd.

 

I know RBs generally start to decline at that age, but with the offensive line solidified with Shawn Andrews' return and Jason Peters playing LT, Philly will be much more effective running the ball.

 

I say Westy gets 1350 total yards and 12 TDs. Very good late 1st round pick in a 10-to-12 team league. m

[49ers_suck 0]

ahhhh, the 'ol Westy debate. happens every yr. as sure as there will be a football season.

 

as a Cowboys fan, and an Eagles hater, i love Brian Westbrook. he's a football player. the guy is consistently underrated and written off. and he just keeps proving people wrong.

 

that said, i voted stayin put. all that needs to be said is IF Westy stays healthy he'll put up solid RB1 numbers. now thats a big if. Westy is breaking down. it happens. but this guy has more talent on one leg then 3/4's of the RB's in the NFL.

 

as far as drafting him, i'm not sure at this point. in a redraft i'm pretty sure i'd snag him at the end of the 1st. it will be interesting to see where he goes in drafts.

[the_risen_demon 0]

I voted stepping down. It's not the yardage that will be hard to replicate, it's the 14 total touchdowns.

[GhostofMeanMachine99 1]

I voted stepping down. It's not the yardage that will be hard to replicate, it's the 14 total touchdowns.

 

A very fair and valid point. Folks believe that because of FA and the draft, the Eagles should be better at converting in the red zone this year, which should equate into more red zone opportunities but spread around to different resources.

 

Having said that, they still have to go out on the field and prove it. Westbrook's always been their most reliable red zone target, so until the other resources can prove otherwise, I don't see 14 TDs being unrealistic next year.

 

What sucks is that Andy Reid will not give opponents anything to look at during the preseason, which would include regular season red zone offense.