1st Round Commentary

[Jetdoc 20]

Ahhh...another year, another mock.

 

For those of you that are new to the mock (or just don't remember how this works), the rules are in the signup thread.

 

In short, we've got a good group of pretty knowledgeable drafters here, so the TRUE value in this mock are not the picks, but the analysis that accompanies the draft.

 

So, feel free to give commentary on specific picks, ask questions as to the thought process of where guys are taken, etc. It's only through that analysis that we can get a good feel on where specific players should be taken, and how different strategies might pan out this year.

 

ONE RULE - PLEASE DO NOT COMMENT ON A PLAYER UNTIL HE IS TAKEN.

 

Also, if you are going to be gone from your computer for a while, contact myself at steven.dougherty@elpaso.com or another poster here to make your pick (via a list) for you. Also check your e-mail often - I'll be bugging you when your turn is up.

 

Check in often, and have fun!

[Da Bomb 0]

just a heads up. travelling from dakota to chicago and got stuck in a hotel with car problems, so im not going to be very reachable tomorrow morning or early afternoon. should be fine after that and will try to check in before i leave tomorrow.

[Fumbleweed 547]

Clash picking first? You've got to be kidding me....

 

When will the madness end?

[Jetdoc 20]

Damb that alphabet. Damb it to HELL!#!@!#

[Da Bomb 0]

lol, of course clash gets the #1 pick. again.

 

ok, which of you can i send an email list to since im #3? email address?

[Clash of the Titans 1]

doh!! i shoulda requested 11 or 12...i am REALLY curious with this group to see who makes it to the end of the round.......i just thought i wouldn't make a request for any position out of diplomacy

 

as for peterson there is NO doubt who to take here in this format......others may get consideration in PPR but not for me...best total package at rb in the nfl hitting his prime just needs to catch a little better and hold onto the ball........runs behind a great offensive line...has a killer defense and i expect the qb/wr position to be improved this year......the team to beat in the norris division this year....no brainer pick

[JScott 20]

Clash picking first? You've got to be kidding me....

 

When will the madness end?

 

[Da Bomb 0]

ok, which of you can i send an email list to since im #3? email address?

 

come on... no one? its only 2 names. you can handle it.

[Clash of the Titans 1]

da bomb you can send it to me....crimsongiants@hotmail.com

[remote controller 143]

I'm sorry that I missed the start of this. My back went out yesterday afternooon, and I checked this around 6:30, had me a whiskey and some muscle relaxers, then drifted off like a lead rock. lol! I took Forte's young legs, over a few others here. I liked the fact that his 379 touches had a good dose of 63 receptions mixed in. Those type of touches out in space don't seem to take the same toll on the body as 375 dives into the line do. Heavy involvement in the offensive scheme, with a Qb who can help open it up for him this year in Culter. I feel he is a definite 2000 combined yard threat, and a shoe in for Td totals exceding last years total of 12, having 15+ this year. Anyway, Forte is my guy and I will sink or swim with him.

[remote controller 143]

the team to beat in the norris division this year

I think it is gonna be a rumble in the Norris this year. Da bears will contend, and the Packers can make it very interesting with defensive improvement. The switch in scheme might hold them back some.

[Fumbleweed 547]

A little surprised Forte went that that high, but thought the pick was fine. His YPC wasn't very good last year. Remote, I assume that you feel the addition of Cutler will improve that, correct?

 

Can't argue with the Jones-Drew pick. Solid choice there.

[Clash of the Titans 1]

im not really sure i am sold on forte- i am in that limbo state about him this season......i think this would have been a much better selection in PPR......right now my gut instinct just has a bad feeling about him....even though with the addition of the new qb i think the offense will be better....i would have went with jones-drew more than likely or the next pick

[Clash of the Titans 1]

A little surprised Forte went that that high, but thought the pick was fine. His YPC wasn't very good last year. Remote, I assume that you feel the addition of Cutler will improve that, correct?

 

Can't argue with the Jones-Drew pick. Solid choice there.

 

 

shhhhh....you mentioned a player that hasnt been selected yet

[Da Bomb 0]

MJD is an easy pick for me and is someone that could be my #1 heading into the season. I'm not expecting magic and wonders out of him, not going to just like double his numbers "now that he's the starter" or something. The fact is that he should get another 100 rushes, and even if only at 4 ypc, that's another 400 yards and 40 fantasy points. He should also have a chance to score more TDs (and no, I'm not worried about a 7th round pick stealing goal line touches). Jacksonville was terrible last year and had an awful OL to boot, MJD split carries, and he still finished in the top 10 again. Now Taylor is gone, and look at the first two draft picks: Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton. Two of the most NFL ready offensive tackles, both of them first round talents, and both guys who are going to make a HUGE impact on MJD's season. Don't believe me? Ask these guys how happy they were that their team spent a 1st round pick on an OT last season:

 

Ronnie Brown (1.1 Jake Long)

Matt Forte (1.14 Chris Williams)

DeAngelo Williams (1.20 Jeff Otah)

Michael Turner (1.22 Sam Baker)

Steve Slaton (1.26 Duane Brown)

 

Notice anything about the RBS on those teams? Not bad huh. Ok so Denver (Ryan Clady) and Detroit (Gosder Cherilius) also drafted top linemen and did not have stud fantasy RBs, but Kevin Smith had a pretty solid season, and Denver's 1384 RBs all did decently whenever they didn't break their hamstrings or what not.

 

Anyway.. I think MJD is in for a big year. He is a guy who could easily cross the 20 TD threshold, honestly who should unless something goes wrong or changes. Add in the receiving skills and you have a guy who is everything the mold of a Priest Holmes sort of season. Not that I'm saying it'll happen, but the upside is there, and the downside seems to be top 10 barring injury. That IS a concern with the higher workload, for the first time ever for him really. But who doesn't have a concern, right?

[remote controller 143]

A little surprised Forte went that that high, but thought the pick was fine. His YPC wasn't very good last year. Remote, I assume that you feel the addition of Cutler will improve that, correct?

 

Can't argue with the Jones-Drew pick. Solid choice there.

Yes, That and this.

 

Forte averaged 3.9 YPC due to the horrible left...

 

Forte averaged 3.9 YPC due to the horrible left side of his line. Which is why losing the first round lineman hurt so bad.

 

4.2 right sideline

4.0 right side

4.8 middle

3.3 left side

3.7 left...

 

The signing of Pace on the left side, and getting their last years #1 pick back from injury also helps.

[Da Bomb 0]

FWIW I had Forte as my other pick if MJD was gone. No one else that high stood out to me. RC mentioned the line upgrades. Nothing about Forte has gotten worse for this season. QB play should obviously be far improved. The line is much better. Even the receivers should be a little better, just with another year of experience. I'm not high on Forte and I'd likely have drafted to trade in this case, but there's no one else I would have taken at this point. He was top 5 last year even with the bad YPC. Only injury and workload can stop him from doing it again.

 

I happen to think workload will dampen his chances, and that's why I'd look to trade. But at this point of the draft, he was a top 3 pick for me.

 

ETA: I'm leaving the hotel now for a 5 or 6 hour drive. I don't imagine getting back to my pick this afternoon, but y'all will have to wait until late afternoon for me if we get to 2.10 cuz I can't look that far ahead. Or if you get flying and need a replacement to keep moving, I'm ok with whoever needs to make that decision. Will check later.

[remote controller 143]

That IS a concern with the higher workload, for the first time ever for him really. But who doesn't have a concern, right?

This was my only concern. MJD was the only other back I considered. I decided to go with my gut, and an improved overall offense in Chicago with Cutler and additons to the line.

[robb 81]

So far, according to most "plans", this draft is going!

 

I am interestingly watching the next 5-6 picks so I can see what is available at #10. I wanted this position since I am unclear if I will go RB/WR or TE (not really). I will wait and see who is there and then select on best player available, at least that is my thinking at this time.

 

Thanks all for this opportunity-we shall talk more later!

[JScott 20]

MJD is an easy pick for me and is someone that could be my #1 heading into the season. I'm not expecting magic and wonders out of him, not going to just like double his numbers "now that he's the starter" or something. The fact is that he should get another 100 rushes, and even if only at 4 ypc, that's another 400 yards and 40 fantasy points. He should also have a chance to score more TDs (and no, I'm not worried about a 7th round pick stealing goal line touches). Jacksonville was terrible last year and had an awful OL to boot, MJD split carries, and he still finished in the top 10 again. Now Taylor is gone, and look at the first two draft picks: Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton. Two of the most NFL ready offensive tackles, both of them first round talents, and both guys who are going to make a HUGE impact on MJD's season. Don't believe me? Ask these guys how happy they were that their team spent a 1st round pick on an OT last season:

 

Ronnie Brown (1.1 Jake Long)

Matt Forte (1.14 Chris Williams)

DeAngelo Williams (1.20 Jeff Otah)

Michael Turner (1.22 Sam Baker)

Steve Slaton (1.26 Duane Brown)

 

Notice anything about the RBS on those teams? Not bad huh. Ok so Denver (Ryan Clady) and Detroit (Gosder Cherilius) also drafted top linemen and did not have stud fantasy RBs, but Kevin Smith had a pretty solid season, and Denver's 1384 RBs all did decently whenever they didn't break their hamstrings or what not.

 

Anyway.. I think MJD is in for a big year. He is a guy who could easily cross the 20 TD threshold, honestly who should unless something goes wrong or changes. Add in the receiving skills and you have a guy who is everything the mold of a Priest Holmes sort of season. Not that I'm saying it'll happen, but the upside is there, and the downside seems to be top 10 barring injury. That IS a concern with the higher workload, for the first time ever for him really. But who doesn't have a concern, right?

 

 

Apparently I'm in the minority of MJD being at top 3 pick. Everything Bomb posted above is solid and I can't agrue. But there are a few other RBs who had "down" seasons in 2008 by their standards and still finished better than MJD. And IMO those RBs potential to bounce back is equal to MJDs upside potential, and therefore I think would be better choices. I feel MJD is a top 6 or so pick but not top 3.

[robb 81]

Waiting on the newbie already. Been 90 minutes and he's not selecting!!

 

(just kidding-no problem since it is the first day!!)

 

See you all in a few hours!

[Fumbleweed 547]

I think it's time to move forward...

[Ace08 11]

Jet gave me the swing away sign via email...so I made my pick.

 

Decided I'd ruffle some feathers and take the first WR a little earlier than normal. My thinking behind the pick...

 

1) I'm convinced that outside of AP, Mojo, and Forte that I can get something just as good at Rb on the way back or even later. To me those 3 guys are the absolute "no brainers" this year...the next 3 or 4 guys who are the "consensus" here scare the crap out of me.

2) There's one of those "consensus" guys I would have considered here had it been an PPR...but since it's not I obviously went another route.

3) This league starts 3 mandatory receivers

4) I'm a huge believer after doing this for years you take best player available regardless of position.

[Clash of the Titans 1]

WOW......i have can't belive a wr was taken that early- i don't think in any mock i have ever done i have seen one go at 1.4..... much less in this format...maybe ace thinks it was PPR.....he's gonna be scrambling for a top tier back at 2.9 and that throws a monkeywrench in his strategy

[Ace08 11]

Clash I'm aware it's not PPR. After the 3 or 4 "consensus" guys who would have been my alternatives have all been taken I'll discuss my rationale further but just off the bat....I wouldn't touch Turner coming off a 370+ carry season in ANY of my leagues this year. I understand he's relatively young but I just don't think you can ignore history on that one stat. Turner would be bucking the trend if he succeeded this year.

[Fumbleweed 547]

Talk about home cooking! Jet slides himself up into the five spot and grabs Turner. I would have been ecstatic to slide up and get Turner...but I think the switch had something to do with locating Fantasy King, correct?

 

Anyway, with us starting 3 WRs, I had Fitzgerald as the #6 guy on my board, so taking him at 1.04 doesn't seem all that crazy to me. I love Turner in a non-PPR format like this one, so that would have been my pick.

 

I will take Steven Jackson at 1.06. It seems like he's been around awhile, but he's still relatively young. I'm not crazy about the pick overall, but it is the best choice for me at this time.

[FantasyKing 4]

I was here and waiting for a while for Ace to pick, dont know why I was skipped.

[Jetdoc 20]

I was here and waiting for a while for Ace to pick, dont know why I was skipped.

 

I just flipped you and myself since I hadn't seen you.

 

You'll get 2.06, etc...don't worry.

[JScott 20]

1.08 - Randy Moss, WR, NE

 

There were a couple of players I was considering here (ETA: LT2 was one)... but what tipped the scales for me was looking ahead to my 2.05 pick.... I feel there will still be RBs available comparable to who I was considering at 1.08 if I went RB, but the WRs available will definitely be in the next tier from Moss.

 

There are definite "IF"s with this pick, most notably Brady's return. But by the end of the season I still expect 1450/15 which would be slightly better than Fitz' 2008 season.

[Jetdoc 20]

Communicating with Patriotsfatboy via e-mail. He's stuck in a meeting, but hopefully I can get his pick shortly.

[robb 81]

I am not "excited" by the selection of Portis at 1.10 at all. But, it is about what I expected. I had LT all qued up, but as usual, he was taken the pick right before me. With Moss & Fitz off the board, I didn't think any of the WRs left were worthy of a 1.10 selection.

 

So, it came down to one of three RBs (I will not reviel the other 2 I was considering-against the rules!) and this is the problem I see with having a later pick in the first round-mediocrity. But, I did want a Tier 2 level running back so my belief was I had better get him now and try and make up for it with better selections later!

 

Again-not thrilled with the choices. Thoughts out there??

[JScott 20]

I am not "excited" by the selection of Portis at 1.10 at all. But, it is about what I expected. I had LT all qued up, but as usual, he was taken the pick right before me. With Moss & Fitz off the board, I didn't think any of the WRs left were worthy of a 1.10 selection.

 

So, it came down to one of three RBs (I will not reviel the other 2 I was considering-against the rules!) and this is the problem I see with having a later pick in the first round-mediocrity. But, I did want a Tier 2 level running back so my belief was I had better get him now and try and make up for it with better selections later!

 

Again-not thrilled with the choices. Thoughts out there??

 

As you said, it's not a sexy pick but it's solid. And Portis is who I would have taken in your shoes. He's steady. Since 2005 his per game average has been top 10 every year except last season where he was 11th.

[JScott 20]

ShaneFalco Last Seen: Today, 02:38 PM

[Jetdoc 20]

ShaneFalco Last Seen: Today, 02:38 PM

 

I've sent him an e-mail. Hopefully he'll peek back in shortly.

[Fumbleweed 547]

The selections of Gore and Moss were a bit early for my taste, but these players all seem so close in value anyway. There don't seem to be very many home run players here in the first round...and as such, it becomes about putting together a strategy for buildiing a team via both this initial pick and in the rounds to come.

 

Translation: The second and third rounds are going to be quite a bit more interesting as we see people begin to match these initial picks with their complements.

[remote controller 143]

I love what fell into Shane's and V4E's lap at 11 and 12. To get Westy in the 2nd is also nice. I say it every year, but V4E steals the first 5 to 6 rounds of the draft every year.

[Vikings4ever 550]

I love what fell into Shane's and V4E's lap at 11 and 12. To get Westy in the 2nd is also nice. I say it every year, but V4E steals the first 5 to 6 rounds of the draft every year.

 

Johnson and Westbrook are 2 guys I'm not really high on this year, especially Westy due to age and injury history, but at the turn, they provided exceptional values IMO.

[Jetdoc 20]

I agree...the V4E turn was pretty killer. I'd love to have a Westbrook/Johnson pair this year.

[remote controller 143]

1.01 Clash of the Titans - Adrian Peterson, RB MIN

1.02 remote controller - Matt Forte, RB CHI

1.03 Da Bomb - Maurice Jones-Drew, RB JAX

1.04 Ace08 - Larry Fitzgerald, WR ARI - Did not bother me at all with the state of the first round of the draft this year

1.05 Jetdoc - Michael Turner, RB ATL

1.06 Fumbleweed - Steven Jackson, RB STL - DeWill, LT, or Chris Johnson would have been my choice here. Not a slam on SJax, but a vote of no confidence for the Rams

1.07 Fantasy King - Frank Gore, RB SFO - I feel he might have almost made it back to him in round 2. I have him pegged at 2.04

1.08 JScott - Randy Moss, WR NEP - perfet place for him and my top Wideout this year

1.09 Patriotsfanboy1 - LaDanian Tomlinson, RB SDC - Nice 1.09 pick!

1.10 robb - Clinton Portis, RB WAS - My least favorite pick in round 1. Had him at 2.06

1.11 Shane Falco - DeAngelo Williams, RB CAR - theft

1.12 Vikings4ever - Chris Johnson, RB TEN -theft

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Take all of these comments with a grain of salt, for I don't remember a draft like this for years. I don't think any of us really no who the top 12 are this year.

[Da Bomb 0]

sorry, i just realized that i dropped like a thousand names in my long MJD posts. oops.

 

wow, this draft is a surprise to see. i'll get some comments up tonight. havent really looked at football stuff yet this year, but fitz at #4 is something to behold.