Kevin Jones to see expanded role in Bears offense?

[mobb_deep 919]

Found this pretty interesting. As someone who isn't 100% on board the Matt Forte train. There's no doubting Kevin Jones has skills. Add this up with Matt Forte's lackluster YPC and the always looming "sophmore slump". Might be a little too much risk for a top 5 pick.

 

http://www.chicagobears.com/news/NewsStory.asp?STORY_ID=5908

 

RB coach Tim Spencer...

 

"Kevin looked great in OTAs. He’s in shape, he’s ready to run, and he wants to run. He’s hungry, and that’s what I think is the most important thing. It’s up to us to get him on the field, and he will get on the field. It would be nice to develop a 1-2 punch. Kevin struggled a little bit earlier on because his knee wasn’t quite ready, but there are no excuses now."

[luckydawg 0]

Definitely. Forte was inefficient last year with a 3.9 ypc avg. His December numbers were really poor and they don't want a repeat of that. I wouldn't touch Forte in the draft.

[stonewall 647]

I have been aware of the Kevin Jones factor. I brought it up recently in another thread.....perhaps in Caras thread about Forte being over-rated.

 

Anyway, I can see about a 70/30 split this year between these two, barring injury to either. If this holds true, then a top-5 Forte pick will probably be lucky to get you top-10 value.......which still ain't bad.

 

I will watch training camp and preseason very closely. If Jones looks up to form, then I let someone else grab Forte at #3 and wait 18 spots for their next pick.

 

BTW: Jones could be a great late-round flier. If Forte gets injured, he is all they have left (besides Wolfe and Peterson jr.), in what could be a pretty prolific offense.

[Doozer 0]

Speaking of great YPC and skillz... Jones in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 respectively averaged... 3.6, 3.8, 3.8, and 3.2 YPC. Four years straight failing to hit 4 YPC!

 

IMO there's no chance of Jones stealing a significant amount of carries from Forte, and even at a 70/30 split (30 isn't going to go all to Jones, again IMO) there will be 303 carries for Forte according to last years total rush amount (434 x .7).

 

In regards to Forte's 3.9 YPC... not only was he a rookie (may of hit the wall in December), but he was consistently seeing eight men in the box... and wasn't exactly on the most prolific offense for endzone opportunities... regardless of all these negatives he still had a very productive season.

 

In this offseason the Bears have improved their QB, and while it's tough to tell this early in the offseason... on paper they have improved their depth at multiple positions on the offensive line. This to me means Forte will at least reproduce if not improve on his 2008 numbers... why such pessimism?

[jdon 28]

Found this pretty interesting. As someone who isn't 100% on board the Matt Forte train. There's no doubting Kevin Jones has skills. Add this up with Matt Forte's lackluster YPC and the always looming "sophmore slump". Might be a little too much risk for a top 5 pick.

 

http://www.chicagobears.com/news/NewsStory.asp?STORY_ID=5908

 

RB coach Tim Spencer...

 

"Kevin looked great in OTAs. He’s in shape, he’s ready to run, and he wants to run. He’s hungry, and that’s what I think is the most important thing. It’s up to us to get him on the field, and he will get on the field. It would be nice to develop a 1-2 punch. Kevin struggled a little bit earlier on because his knee wasn’t quite ready, but there are no excuses now."

 

I think its possible that this could be more preseason hype/talk than reality. IF I am going to pick Forte, then KJ is the least of my concerns.

jdon

[karmarooster 0]

Speaking of great YPC and skillz... Jones in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 respectively averaged... 3.6, 3.8, 3.8, and 3.2 YPC. Four years straight failing to hit 4 YPC!

 

IMO there's no chance of Jones stealing a significant amount of carries from Forte, and even at a 70/30 split (30 isn't going to go all to Jones, again IMO) there will be 303 carries for Forte according to last years total rush amount (434 x .7).

 

In regards to Forte's 3.9 YPC... not only was he a rookie (may of hit the wall in December), but he was consistently seeing eight men in the box... and wasn't exactly on the most prolific offense for endzone opportunities... regardless of all these negatives he still had a very productive season.

 

In this offseason the Bears have improved their QB, and while it's tough to tell this early in the offseason... on paper they have improved their depth at multiple positions on the offensive line. This to me means Forte will at least reproduce if not improve on his 2008 numbers... why such pessimism?

 

these numbers are a bit inaccurate. 434 is the total number of rushes last year by the bears... this number includes QB scrambles, kneeldowns, and WR end-arounds. the actually number of rushes by RBs is somewhat lower... here's my post from Cara's thread:

 

Last year's RB rush totals:

Forte 316

KJones 34

Peterson 20

Wolfe 15

McKie 11

 

That's 386 total rushes by all RBs. Forte's 316 is about 82% of the total. That has to come down if the Bears are interested in keeping Forte as a franchise RB for a number of years. 70-75% is more reasonable. Cutler should convert more 3rd downs than Orton and keep more drives alive, resulting in more offensive plays and thus more rushes.

 

Projections:

400 total rushes by RBs

Forte 280 (70%)

Jones 80 (20%)

Others 40 (10%)

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Yeah.....I drafte Kevin Jones last year thinknig the same thing. This pre-camp talk is worthless. "KJ looks great".....whoopity do. It means nothing. He's no threat. Any talent/explosiveness he had coming out of college has been demolished by injury. He's just hanging onto a backup roll now.

[The Moz 69]

Forte scares me this year -- he is a top 5 pick right now and really doesn't have nearly top 5 talent just a top 5 situation.

 

Forte is a guy where he could be a PPR goldmine or could be a night mare.

[WoodDuck2003 0]

Speaking of great YPC and skillz... Jones in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 respectively averaged... 3.6, 3.8, 3.8, and 3.2 YPC. Four years straight failing to hit 4 YPC!

 

IMO there's no chance of Jones stealing a significant amount of carries from Forte, and even at a 70/30 split (30 isn't going to go all to Jones, again IMO) there will be 303 carries for Forte according to last years total rush amount (434 x .7).

 

In regards to Forte's 3.9 YPC... not only was he a rookie (may of hit the wall in December), but he was consistently seeing eight men in the box... and wasn't exactly on the most prolific offense for endzone opportunities... regardless of all these negatives he still had a very productive season.

 

In this offseason the Bears have improved their QB, and while it's tough to tell this early in the offseason... on paper they have improved their depth at multiple positions on the offensive line. This to me means Forte will at least reproduce if not improve on his 2008 numbers... why such pessimism?

I am not on the Jones bandwagon either but trying to compare 05-08 Lions to the 08 CHI offensive line is I think he will be a great backup for Forte and since he already tweaked his hammy I do think he is a candidate for sophmore slump, ala Caddy.

 

Never know but in that offense I am willing to take a late round flyer on Jones if he is there.

[Belushi 9]

I think people have forgotten how good Jones looked at times in Detroit. He's injury prone, but he looked very good in a pretty bad situation in Detroit with no O-line. He's a very good receiver and he's got good size, and now he's 2 years removed from surgery. He's not going to become the lead back, but I think he gets into the game quite a bit this year to relieve Forte. I also expect them to throw a little more than last year with Cutler around now, and so the total touches for Forte could drop. He's sliding out of my top 5.

[DankNuggs 305]

healthy Kevin Jones is a good back....maybe he just needed a few years to heal...not to mention he isn't playing on turf anymore, which is probably good (injury-wise)

[Melissa Stark 1]

Forte seems like a higher risk for a 1st rounder.

 

Seems like a automatic handcuff with Jones, if you grab Forte.

[Ray_T 598]

I have been aware of the Kevin Jones factor. I brought it up recently in another thread.....perhaps in Caras thread about Forte being over-rated.

 

Anyway, I can see about a 70/30 split this year between these two, barring injury to either. If this holds true, then a top-5 Forte pick will probably be lucky to get you top-10 value.......which still ain't bad.

 

I will watch training camp and preseason very closely. If Jones looks up to form, then I let someone else grab Forte at #3 and wait 18 spots for their next pick.

 

BTW: Jones could be a great late-round flier. If Forte gets injured, he is all they have left (besides Wolfe and Peterson jr.), in what could be a pretty prolific offense.

Well, if Jones really looks good in camp, I will be taking him late in drafts or on the cheap at the auction.

[mobb_deep 919]

Yeah.....I drafte Kevin Jones last year thinknig the same thing. This pre-camp talk is worthless. "KJ looks great".....whoopity do. It means nothing. He's no threat. Any talent/explosiveness he had coming out of college has been demolished by injury. He's just hanging onto a backup roll now.

 

Yah, don't get me wrong. I'm not claiming Jones is going to come in and steal the job from Forte. The only part of the entire quote I found interesting was Spencers desire for a "1-2 punch". Forte got a ton of touches last year, because nobody behind him was worth a damn. Forte is a great receiving back, but he's not that great between the tackles. If you look at his game by game statistic, even his 3,9 YPC is overinflated by 2 huge game against St Louis and Detroit. He barely hit a 3.0 clip if you take those two games out. A healthy Jones could keep Forte fresh and do some running between the tackles (he carries about 15 more pounds).

[Joey Gladstone 33]

Jones has looked good in flashes over the years, but come on..it's Kevin Jones. I don't care how good he's looked, his chance for injury is pretty significant.

 

I've been engorged in fantasy baseball the past couple months and just sat down to do some mock drafts and studying up for my fantasy football draft next month.

 

I think out of the 5 backs projected to go top 5, Forte Ranks a solid 3rd behind Peterson and MJD. I like the fact that Cutler is in town and he has a competent back to spell him and keep him fresh. I'd definitely take him over Turner (Big games against poor defenses, shut down against tougher teams) and Jackson (who wants to trust anybody in St Louis?).

 

Not really big news...his ADP has been around the 3rd pick. I'm just endorsing that.

[shovelheadt 62]

healthy Kevin Jones is a good back....maybe he just needed a few years to heal...not to mention he isn't playing on turf anymore, which is probably good (injury-wise)

 

..or for the Lions

[MudDawgs4Life 6]

Speaking of great YPC and skillz... Jones in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 respectively averaged... 3.6, 3.8, 3.8, and 3.2 YPC. Four years straight failing to hit 4 YPC!

 

IMO there's no chance of Jones stealing a significant amount of carries from Forte, and even at a 70/30 split (30 isn't going to go all to Jones, again IMO) there will be 303 carries for Forte according to last years total rush amount (434 x .7).

 

In regards to Forte's 3.9 YPC... not only was he a rookie (may of hit the wall in December), but he was consistently seeing eight men in the box... and wasn't exactly on the most prolific offense for endzone opportunities... regardless of all these negatives he still had a very productive season.

 

In this offseason the Bears have improved their QB, and while it's tough to tell this early in the offseason... on paper they have improved their depth at multiple positions on the offensive line. This to me means Forte will at least reproduce if not improve on his 2008 numbers... why such pessimism?

 

 

yes..yes..i like what you've done there...and yes. the exact argument. well said.

[9-Route 0]

the key with forte last yr was situation. we knew 'someone' could get the job there and post some nice stats via ground and air [as mini-peterson did the prior season]. most who drafted him in rookie or reg drafts saw this and got dividend. this yr, his hype mainly centers around his recs/PPR league value [much like jones-drew, who caught as all off guard by becoming the basically #1 catching option on a bad yr for the jags offense].

 

i see the biggest obstacle for forte this yr as cutler. most feel improving the qb situation will open this offense and take heat off the run cover. however, to me, old habits die hard. cutler never really used hbs as receiving options in denver. furthermore, when on the move either by designed rollout or pass rushed, he tends to scan deeper downfield because he takes great pride in his cannon arm [which has been centered upon in many discussions regarding his sometimes poor decision making due to this over[?]confidence]. can he stick to this new playbook and dump it short to the back? can he change his instincts to scan for the big play he feels only he can make with his great arm? his history and ego show me, as of now, that he has higher propensity to try to make the broken play into a spectacular hester bomb rather than take the short hit to forte to salvage the play.

[DC 9]

the key with forte last yr was situation. we knew 'someone' could get the job there and post some nice stats via ground and air [as mini-peterson did the prior season]. most who drafted him in rookie or reg drafts saw this and got dividend. this yr, his hype mainly centers around his recs/PPR league value [much like jones-drew, who caught as all off guard by becoming the basically #1 catching option on a bad yr for the jags offense].

 

i see the biggest obstacle for forte this yr as cutler. most feel improving the qb situation will open this offense and take heat off the run cover. however, to me, old habits die hard. cutler never really used hbs as receiving options in denver. furthermore, when on the move either by designed rollout or pass rushed, he tends to scan deeper downfield because he takes great pride in his cannon arm [which has been centered upon in many discussions regarding his sometimes poor decision making due to this over[?]confidence]. can he stick to this new playbook and dump it short to the back? can he change his instincts to scan for the big play he feels only he can make with his great arm? his history and ego show me, as of now, that he has higher propensity to try to make the broken play into a spectacular hester bomb rather than take the short hit to forte to salvage the play.

 

 

Cutler at QB does diminish the pass catching value of Forte and Jones. But he turns Olsen into gold. Olsen best TE value this year.

[Doozer 0]

the key with forte last yr was situation. we knew 'someone' could get the job there and post some nice stats via ground and air [as mini-peterson did the prior season]. most who drafted him in rookie or reg drafts saw this and got dividend. this yr, his hype mainly centers around his recs/PPR league value [much like jones-drew, who caught as all off guard by becoming the basically #1 catching option on a bad yr for the jags offense].

 

i see the biggest obstacle for forte this yr as cutler. most feel improving the qb situation will open this offense and take heat off the run cover. however, to me, old habits die hard. cutler never really used hbs as receiving options in denver. furthermore, when on the move either by designed rollout or pass rushed, he tends to scan deeper downfield because he takes great pride in his cannon arm [which has been centered upon in many discussions regarding his sometimes poor decision making due to this over[?]confidence]. can he stick to this new playbook and dump it short to the back? can he change his instincts to scan for the big play he feels only he can make with his great arm? his history and ego show me, as of now, that he has higher propensity to try to make the broken play into a spectacular hester bomb rather than take the short hit to forte to salvage the play.

 

If someone could post nice stats via the ground/air why didn't anyone do it last year?

 

AP (bears) 151-510-3 (3.4 YPC) 51-420-0

 

Benson 196-674-4 3.4 YPC 17-123-0

 

Forte did better in most stats than those two backs combined did only two years ago... being much more efficient per carry. Saying that it is the situation is ignorant IMO.

 

Forte is young and was a rookie last year, you don't think he's going to get better?

 

Cutler passed to his RBs successfully 53 times last year W/ Marshall/Scheffler/Royal at WR/TE! Orton threw to his RBs successfully 71 times last year w/ nothing near those options... 18 receptions isn't that big of a difference that you're all trying to make it out to be.

 

Especially when you think that Cutler has never worked with a receiving threat like Forte at RB outside of perhaps Peyton Hillis (anyone remember his seven reception game week 9?!), and had much, MUCH better receiving threats in Denver so it unnecessary for him to check it down a lot.

 

Conversely, the bears have done little to improve their WR core, and have a young emerging TE... who exactly is Cutler going to force it to outside of Olsen? He going to go deep to Hester every play? Who else is he going to throw the ball to?

 

Lastly, having Cutler IMO will benefit Forte because he won't see eight men in the box consistently, while teams beg Orton to throw a shat deep ball. This means a higher YPC and more endzone opportunities, even w/ fewer carries he should be more effective w/ his touches due to a legit QB.

[9-Route 0]

some good incite on the counterpoint.

 

every cutler fantasy owner and bronco fan knows their most hated play-by-play line from last season: "cutler pass short middle intended for bmarshall, INTERCEPTED by ...." the other ones include multiple "cutler short pass right, incomplete, intended for bmarshall.....cutler short pass middle, incomplete, intended for bmarshall". cutler's fans know he homes in on targets and routes a lot, and makes a lot of mistakes born from his feeling his fastball overcomes any and all coverages.

 

i only caution that there is a %chance, however small, that we may see cutler turn into the "white culpepper"----huge arm and great stats when he has a stud physical receiver, but dud when he doesn't. culpepper never realized and adjusted to the smaller spaces and windows on the field when u dont have an ultra physical presence at wr, and his shining career stats with TDs and high comp%s evaporated. we've seen qbs accustomed to less increase their stats when they suddenly get more to work with, but few can maintain or increase when they move to poorer situations.