Caution with MJD

[karmarooster 0]

I'm as high on MJD as anyone... in fact i have him as my #1 overall, ahead of AP, in PPR format. here are my projections for him:

• 256 carries x 4.5 avg = 1152 yards
  
• 50 receptions x 9.5 avg = 475 yards
  
• 13 TDs
  
• 290 points
  

however i'm starting to get the feeling his situation is too similar to Marion Barber from last year. last summer i was considering Barber as high as 1.05 and 1.06. we all know how the season played out for him last year. his YPC dropped to a career low 3.7, TDs dropped to 9, and he was basically ineffective for the last 5 games of the year. here's a break down of Barber vs. MJD in their first 3 seasons:

 

MJD

• 47 games played
  
• 530 rush att => 11.3 att/game
  
• 148 receptions => 3.1 rec/game
  
• 38 TDs => .81 TDs/game
  
• 4.8 YPC, 9.5 YPR
  

Barber

• 45 games played
  
• 477 rush att => 10.6 att/game
  
• 85 receptions => 1.9 rec/game
  
• 33 TDs => .73 TDs/game
  
• 4.5 YPC, 7.0 YPR
  

the numbers are very similar except that MJD is slightly superior in every category.

MJD doesn't really share Barber's ultra-violent running style, but he doesn't exactly shy away from contact either.

MJD is more elusive and likely avoids more direct hits.

Barber had fewer rushes than MJD in 3 years, but they were very similar in their third years (204 vs. 197)

last year, Barber broke down after about 215 rushes. i've got MJD projected at 16 per game for 256, plus his career avg 3.1 receptions per game.

 

is anyone else concerned that MJD in 2009 is going to have a similar year to Barber in 2008?

 

how many carries can MJD take?

 

am i wrong to be second guessing myself here?

 

i'm not really interested in debating draft pecking-order, as in MJD vs AP at 1.01, i'm just interested in your thoughts about these eery similarities.

[VaTerp 0]

Nice analysis.

 

There is definitely reason for caution with MJD just as there is with every single RB in FF this year. However, I still have him #1 overall on my board slightly ahead of ADP.

 

The thing about MBIII last year is that he was productive early on. The injuries to himself and Romo really hurt his numbers over the course of the season but I think a lot of people are overly down on him. Without those injuries and had Dallas committed to the run a lil more in some games I think he would have easily finished top 5 last year.

 

Obviously injuries can happen to any RB at any time. There is some concern for RBs like Barber and MJD who never truly carried the load but you really cant predict injuries to that extent. Last year injuries to himself and his QB did MBIII in while injuries to the O-line limited MJD's production.

 

The other big factor here is that, as you mentioned, MJD is the more explosive runner and with his running style and shorter frame he takes less abuse than MBIII does. And, Jax has less offensive weapons than Dallas did last year. You can argue whether or not that hurts or helps MJD but I think it can help as long Jax is able to move the ball enough to get him enough scoring opportunities.

 

Concerns, yes. But not enough to make me knock MJD from the top of my board. There are some similarities w/ MBIII but my bigger concern is whether the moves to rebuild the O-line will be successful and if Garrard, Holt, and the rest of the passing game can do enough to keep Ds honest.

[FeelingMN 273]

MBIII didn't wear down last year. He suffered a toe injury. Sh!t happens. If he hadn't suffered the injury, and if Romo doesn't miss time, Barber has a monster season. But injuries are part of the game, and you deal with it.

 

If MJD can stay healthy, he will put up solid numbers. Adequate QB with better receiving options than '08....better O-line....an offense that likes to run the ball....there is really no reason to worry about MJD this year.

 

And you're comparing the guys numbers to MBIII. He's pretty good. Now if you would have compared MJD numbers to Quentin Griffin, then I might take pause.

[yostevo 0]

Find a roster spot for Rashad Jennings and relax a bit.

 

MJD is going to roll this year.

[Dr. Octopus 0]

I'm as high on MJD as anyone... in fact i have him as my #1 overall, ahead of AP, in PPR format. here are my projections for him:

• 256 carries x 4.5 avg = 1152 yards
  
• 50 receptions x 9.5 avg = 475 yards
  
• 13 TDs
  
• 290 points
  

however i'm starting to get the feeling his situation is too similar to Marion Barber from last year. last summer i was considering Barber as high as 1.05 and 1.06. we all know how the season played out for him last year. his YPC dropped to a career low 3.7, TDs dropped to 9, and he was basically ineffective for the last 5 games of the year. here's a break down of Barber vs. MJD in their first 3 seasons:

 

MJD

• 47 games played
  
• 530 rush att => 11.3 att/game
  
• 148 receptions => 3.1 rec/game
  
• 38 TDs => .81 TDs/game
  
• 4.8 YPC, 9.5 YPR
  

Barber

• 45 games played
  
• 477 rush att => 10.6 att/game
  
• 85 receptions => 1.9 rec/game
  
• 33 TDs => .73 TDs/game
  
• 4.5 YPC, 7.0 YPR
  

the numbers are very similar except that MJD is slightly superior in every category.

MJD doesn't really share Barber's ultra-violent running style, but he doesn't exactly shy away from contact either.

MJD is more elusive and likely avoids more direct hits.

Barber had fewer rushes than MJD in 3 years, but they were very similar in their third years (204 vs. 197)

last year, Barber broke down after about 215 rushes. i've got MJD projected at 16 per game for 256, plus his career avg 3.1 receptions per game.

 

is anyone else concerned that MJD in 2009 is going to have a similar year to Barber in 2008?

 

how many carries can MJD take?

 

am i wrong to be second guessing myself here?

 

i'm not really interested in debating draft pecking-order, as in MJD vs AP at 1.01, i'm just interested in your thoughts about these eery similarities.

 

I think you're showing a bunch of numbers that appear to be similiar but have no correlation to eachother. Without even mentioning the factors that went against Barber last season that helped lower his ypc*, what does he have to do with MJD?

 

So because one back "failed" upon taking on a bigger role that means another RB that takes on a bigger role will fail? Sorry there really isn't any substantive logic there. Don't take offense to that statement, just trying to make you see a point. Did Frank Gore fail after the Niners jettisoned Kevan Barlow? Did D'Angelo Williams fail after DeShaun Foster was kicked to the curb? etc. etc. etc. See my point? Each player and situation is different. You have to ask yourself why you ranked MJD so highly and what changed? the answer to the second part is nothing other than bringing in Marion Barber as a comparison.

 

 

 

* Ok I'll mention it. Barber was actually having a really fine year until he got banged up and then lost Romo. I can't begin to tell you how bad Brad Johnson looked last season unless you saw him play. The offense was in a lot of trouble and thus Barber struggled. As you alluded to, Babrber's style has a lot to due with him getting nicked up. Sure MJD runs hard as well, but is more compact and more elusive. Its hard to predict injuries, but I don't see any reason to raise a red flag on MJD getting injured.

[Phurfur 70]

I can only add this, MJD and MBIII have nothing to do with each other and cannot be compared.

[Ray_T 743]

I think your showing a bunch of numbers that appear to be similiar but have no correlation to eachother. Without even mentioning the factors that went agains Barber last season that helped lower his ypc*, what does he have to do with MJD?

 

So because one back "failed" upon taking on a bigger role that means another RB that takes on a bigger role will fail? Sorry there really isn't any substantive logic there. Don't take offense to that statement, just trying to make you see a point. Did Frank Gore fail after the Niners jettisoned Kevan Barlow? Did Ahman Green fail after being traded to Green Bay after being stuck behind Shaun Alexander. See my point. Each player and situation is different. You have to ask yourself why you ranked MJD so highly and what changed? the answer to the second part is nothing other than bringing in Marion Barber as a comparison.

* Ok I'll mention it. Barber was actually having a really fine year until he got banged up and then lost Romo. I can't begin to tell you how bad Brad Johnson looked last season unless you saw him play. The offense was in a lot of trouble and thus Barber struggled. As you alluded to, Babrber's style has a lot to due with him getting nicked up. Sure MJD runs hard as well, but is more compact and more elusive. Its hard to predict injuries, but I don't see any reason to raise a red flag on MJD getting injured.

 

true.

 

I think that chance exists with every back that takes an expanded role. You need to look at other things such as injury history in more detail to try to make an educated guess on what will happen.

 

ie. if Reggie Bush went full time, I'd have concerns with Durability because he cant stay healthy in a RBBC role now.

[t-birdie 8]

On top of Barber's injury and Romo's injury, Dallas had a BEASTLY schedule last year. I think Barber had a terrible rushing matchup every single week.

[JakeTrain72 0]

although the numbers indicate a comparison can be drawn I don't think Barber is a good comp with MJD. The competition is different in each backfield and they are not used the same way in the offense.

 

When it comes down to it, there is a huge risk in every pick in the first round. I love MJD and to me I think his biggest riskis that his ceiling may not be quite as high as people will think. I just think Jax will continue to use other backs and MJD's carries and receptions are not going to increase as much as peoplewould normally think.

[fanfootballtn 33]

MJD sucks. Always has always will. He is going to get hurt in the 1st game of the season and will be the biggest bust in FF history. I wouldn't draft this guy if I were you. This guy is dead on when comparing him to M. Barber last year. To even have him ranked @ #2 and some cheatsheets above AP is crazy! He should go somewhere in the 5th round at best. BCC: Now if I can somehow email the guys in my league this link without them knowing it's me then maybe I'll have a better chance at getting him.

[karmarooster 0]

I think you're showing a bunch of numbers that appear to be similiar but have no correlation to eachother. Without even mentioning the factors that went against Barber last season that helped lower his ypc*, what does he have to do with MJD?

 

So because one back "failed" upon taking on a bigger role that means another RB that takes on a bigger role will fail? Sorry there really isn't any substantive logic there. Don't take offense to that statement, just trying to make you see a point. Did Frank Gore fail after the Niners jettisoned Kevan Barlow? Did D'Angelo Williams fail after DeShaun Foster was kicked to the curb? etc. etc. etc. See my point? Each player and situation is different. You have to ask yourself why you ranked MJD so highly and what changed? the answer to the second part is nothing other than bringing in Marion Barber as a comparison.

* Ok I'll mention it. Barber was actually having a really fine year until he got banged up and then lost Romo. I can't begin to tell you how bad Brad Johnson looked last season unless you saw him play. The offense was in a lot of trouble and thus Barber struggled. As you alluded to, Babrber's style has a lot to due with him getting nicked up. Sure MJD runs hard as well, but is more compact and more elusive. Its hard to predict injuries, but I don't see any reason to raise a red flag on MJD getting injured.

 

i see your point, but i still don't think MJD and Barber are that different.... they were both used in their first 3 years as complimentary running backs that specialize in 3rd down and goal-line situations who had great success in those roles. in the 4th season, they became featured backs. i'm not suggesting that MJD will fail... Barber didn't really "fail" last year. he was a top 5 back before injuries to himself and Romo. also, thanks for pointing on the injury to Romo, i forgot that Barber's injuries happened soon after that. but if i recall correctly, it wasn't just a toe injury... first it was a broken rib and then the toe.

 

the difference between MJD & Barber vs. Gore, Dwill, & Michael Turner, or any other running back that went from a time-share/back-up to a featured roll is that those other guys weren't drafted in the first round. Turner was 3rd/4th round, Dwill was 8th round, and i don't know where gore was drafted after his rookie season.

 

actually i'm REALLY hoping that Rashad Jennings shows some ability in training camp because i think he's needed to take 5-10 carries a game. I don't want MJD to have more than 15-17 rushes/game, because that will put him north of 240-270 carries for the season.

 

again, how many carries do you think MJD can handle over a season?

 

these numbers from last year suggest that MJD already has handled a large number of touches successfully:

197 rushes

62 receptions

13 KR

7 PR

279 total touches

[Ramrock 17]

This guy is the most overrated player is this years draft

 

EOM

[stonewall 647]

MJD sucks. Always has always will. He should go somewhere in the 5th round at best.

 

 

Alrighty then........good luck with that

[Phurfur 70]

MJD sucks. Always has always will. He is going to get hurt in the 1st game of the season and will be the biggest bust in FF history. I wouldn't draft this guy if I were you. This guy is dead on when comparing him to M. Barber last year. To even have him ranked @ #2 and some cheatsheets above AP is crazy! He should go somewhere in the 5th round at best. BCC: Now if I can somehow email the guys in my league this link without them knowing it's me then maybe I'll have a better chance at getting him.

 

My ignore list is getting too long.

[Dr. Octopus 0]

i see your point, but i still don't think MJD and Barber are that different.... they were both used in their first 3 years as complimentary running backs that specialize in 3rd down and goal-line situations who had great success in those roles. in the 4th season, they became featured backs. i'm not suggesting that MJD will fail... Barber didn't really "fail" last year. he was a top 5 back before injuries to himself and Romo. also, thanks for pointing on the injury to Romo, i forgot that Barber's injuries happened soon after that. but if i recall correctly, it wasn't just a toe injury... first it was a broken rib and then the toe.

 

the difference between MJD & Barber vs. Gore, Dwill, & Michael Turner, or any other running back that went from a time-share/back-up to a featured roll is that those other guys weren't drafted in the first round. Turner was 3rd/4th round, Dwill was 8th round, and i don't know where gore was drafted after his rookie season.

 

actually i'm REALLY hoping that Rashad Jennings shows some ability in training camp because i think he's needed to take 5-10 carries a game. I don't want MJD to have more than 15-17 rushes/game, because that will put him north of 240-270 carries for the season.

 

again, how many carries do you think MJD can handle over a season?

 

these numbers from last year suggest that MJD already has handled a large number of touches successfully:

197 rushes

62 receptions

13 KR

7 PR

279 total touches

 

MJD hasn't just been used as a GL back or third down back. He has spelled Taylor for a series or two as well and can handle all situations.

 

Bottom line though is that any time you increase carries you obviously increases the chance/risk of injury. It only stands to reason.

 

I do think that either Greg Jones, Rashad Jennings or Chancey Washington (or maybe all 3) will be worked into the offense a little to help keep MJD healthy and fresh.

[kutulu 1,664]

Nope. He'll eat up 1/6th of my cap space in a 2 player keeper/auction format league, but I got no worries holding on to him at that cost.

 

(A. Johnson will be taking up 1/6th as well)

[Labelman 0]

I will take MJD anywhere after 3 this year in my drafts. Remember when he laid that huge block on Shawne Merriman? That guys legs are oak trees.

 

BUT, if you do take MJD - you MUST take Rashard Jennings - this big back will be used this year to spell MJD - he is a must have handcuff.

 

Behind an improving JAX line that is committed to running the ball feel good about your pick.

[Ray_T 743]

i see your point, but i still don't think MJD and Barber are that different.... they were both used in their first 3 years as complimentary running backs that specialize in 3rd down and goal-line situations who had great success in those roles. in the 4th season, they became featured backs. i'm not suggesting that MJD will fail... Barber didn't really "fail" last year. he was a top 5 back before injuries to himself and Romo. also, thanks for pointing on the injury to Romo, i forgot that Barber's injuries happened soon after that. but if i recall correctly, it wasn't just a toe injury... first it was a broken rib and then the toe.

 

the difference between MJD & Barber vs. Gore, Dwill, & Michael Turner, or any other running back that went from a time-share/back-up to a featured roll is that those other guys weren't drafted in the first round. Turner was 3rd/4th round, Dwill was 8th round, and i don't know where gore was drafted after his rookie season.

 

actually i'm REALLY hoping that Rashad Jennings shows some ability in training camp because i think he's needed to take 5-10 carries a game. I don't want MJD to have more than 15-17 rushes/game, because that will put him north of 240-270 carries for the season.

 

again, how many carries do you think MJD can handle over a season?

 

these numbers from last year suggest that MJD already has handled a large number of touches successfully:

197 rushes

62 receptions

13 KR

7 PR

279 total touches

 

I think MJD and barber are radically different.

 

Yes, they are the same in the sense that they were backups who have had their role expanded, but that is where the similarities end.

 

MJD's game is speed Speed and more speed. He is a top WR out of the backfield (as far as RB's go) and he creates mismatches in the secondary. He's more likely to break a run by rounding the corner on the outside. and he gets lots of his TD's by breaking long runs or catching a pass and breaking a tackle or two.

 

Barber's game is Power Power Power.

 

He does not evade people with his speed. He runs over them like a truck and he does not catch a huge number of passes out of the backfield. He gets most of his TD's in short yardage situations (red Zone)

 

in terms of Wear & Tear, Barber will beat up his body a whole lot more than MJD ever will, but he also has a big body to abuse.

 

Guys like Barber typically will have one or two monster seasons before their body wears out. (typically due to the hard miles on the odometer) so when you think of him, think of the Bus or any other power RB you can think of. He is as boom or bust as you can get (due to the risk of injury)

 

guys like MJD are smaller, and the risk of injury is greater because of that... but he does not play a heavy contact style, so he is more likely to be able to endure the pounding.

 

Yes there are risks with both players, but I'd take my chances with MJD ahead of barber.

[stonewall 647]

MJD's game is speed Speed and more speed. He is a top WR out of the backfield (as far as RB's go) and he creates mismatches in the secondary. He's more likely to break a run by rounding the corner on the outside. and he gets lots of his TD's by breaking long runs or catching a pass and breaking a tackle or two.

 

Barber's game is Power Power Power.

 

He does not evade people with his speed.

 

Some good insight in your post and, ironically, I was going to make a very similar analysis early in this thread.......but then I looked at the #'s. Just doesn't add up.

Yes, I think we can safely assume that MJD is the faster more elusive back, but it just didn't translate into more long runs last season.

In fact, I averaged the longest run/game for the 1st 13 weeks of the season(before Barber got hurt) for the the 2 backs. MJD averaged a long run/game of 13.9, while Barber averaged a long run/game of 17.8. If you look at their 08 games side by side you see that in the vast majority of games, Barber had a longer run. I wouldn't have believed it, if I hadn't seen it, but it is true.

That being said....I still like MJD's situation much better this year. He is the clear cut rock-toter, barring injury. However, I predict a major time share this season in Big D, with Felix/Tashard seeing lots of action early, and Barber in more of a clean up role like he excelled in with Julius.

Botton line: MJD does not have a drop off this year or wear down like Barber did last season. Barring injury...He Shines.

[JakeTrain72 0]

MJD being overrated?? There will always be people who are not going to be buying certain guys high. Those that think he is overrated...do you think he is first round material? If you believe he is over rated, where do you think he should be drafted? offer some RBs you believe have similar value...just helps outline the kind of traits you put stock in.

 

MJD is a young back with a solid track record of helth and progression of production on the field. Tough, durable, dual threat and always capable of exploding for a TD. He can also get it done from inside the 5 and isn't getting in trouble with the law and being suspended. There is risk in every player, but how many guys are you really going to take on your team before MJD?

 

And considering his current value, even if you dont like him, he makes for great trade bait.

[The Next Generation 10]

Decent article on MJD

 

He doesn't think he'll be getting more carries. I think he's just being humble, but you never know...