I think 2010 will be the year when fantasy football...

[Admiral Awesome 0]

There's no question that the NFL is becoming a pass first league, and this next year's fantasy draft class might be the quick beginning to a "skip the running back" draft strategy entirely. According to http://www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com, these are the running backs that will go in the first round:

 

1. Chris Johnson

2. Adrian Peterson

3. Maurice Jones-Drew

4. Ray Rice

6. Michael Turner

7. Frank Gore

8. Steven Jackson

 

Picks five, nine and ten are Andre Johnson, Randy Moss and Reggie Wayne / Aaron Rodgers respectively in many of these drafts. Out of these running backs, I am sketchy on Michael Turner and Steven Jackson. Turner is coming off an injury and Steven Jackson is on a horrible team. Here's the second round:

 

1. Cedric Benson

2. Jamaal Charles

3. Ryan Grant

4. DeAngelo Williams

5. Shonn Greene

 

Cedric Benson is questionable because many people believe his year in Cincinnati was a fluke. Jamaal Charles, although very impressive, could be hindered by Thomas Jones. Ryan Grant is on a pass first Green Bay offense. DeAngelo Williams is competing with Johnathon Stewart.

 

Shonn Greene might be the best pick out of all of these players because he's on a run first offense, and although LaDainian Tomlinson is on the depth chart, his body is not the same since it was in 2006.

 

To me, there are only six or seven elite running backs this year. I'm thinking, for sure, that wide receivers will slowly take first round picks in the years to come, specifically starting this year.

[LordOpie 0]

your analysis is backwards.

 

It's not that WRs are becoming more valuable, it's simply that there are less featured RBs.

[We Tigers 71]

This was already fairly evident last year--I think final 2009 ADP at most sources had AJ, Fitz, and Moss all going in the first round, with Brees as a late 1st/early 2nd.

[neworleansff2003 0]

possibly dumbest post ever.

 

you do realize fantasy football has been around for about 30-40 years.....

 

nothing is going to change this year, there are always cycles....in the late 80s/early 90s it was all qb and wr's.....marino aikman carter rice mcaffery elway martin montana......same way in the mid 70's with bradshaw swan namath (early) Staubach, etc etc etc etc

 

 

the late 90s until about 2 years ago was ALL RB, and unfortunately the world started using the internet and everyone thinks history did not exist in any subject matter prior to 1999.

 

shesh.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

I have always been a RB early and often drafter. My reasoning is and was simply positional scarcity. I felt it was much more important to have 3 solid backs in your first 4 or 5 rounds. I usually went RB, RB in rounds 1 and 2 and always had a 3rd by the end of round 5. When most fantasy leagues require you to start 2 backs and there are only 32 starting backs in the league... and how many are really reliable? you want some good options.

 

but now, with all the tandem's in the league, I can certainly understand simply drafting BPA or even making a concious effort to go with WR's early (in PPR's). You'll be looking at Charles + Jones, Williams + Stewart, Brown + R.Williams, Forte + Taylor, Jacobs + Bradshaw, Addai + Brown, Greene + Tomlinson (i have a feeling LT will get his touches).... and who knows what the NFL draft will bring.

[kmbryant09 1]

I do agree that there are only 5-7 elite RB's that I would draft in the first 15 or so picks (AP, CJ24, Ray Rice, MJD, Charles, and that might be it).

 

But I think it's a lot more complicated by the fact that the WR pool is EXTREMELY deep....Andre Johnson, Moss, Wayne, Calvin, Fitz, Boldin, S. Rice, M. Austin, D. Jackson, G. Jennings, R. White, Colston, Holmes, Marshall, V. Jackson, S. Smith, and D. Bowe have all proven capable of being a #1 WR....Then you look at the list of young, talented, potential WR's: Meachem, Nicks, S. Smith, Breaston, Crabtree, Sims-Walker, Collie/Gonzalez/Garcon...then even deeper: Wallace, Doucet, Aromashadu, M. Floyd, K. Britt, P. Harvin, etc. etc.

 

I think the WR/RB pool is extremely deep...I'll be drafting a top-tier QB in the first 2 rounds of nearly every draft (Manning, Brees, or Rodgers)...then just loading up on talented WR's/Rb's....You could end up with a team of:

 

Manning (2)

 

Ray Rice (1)

B. Wells (4)

Felix Jones (6)

C. Taylor (8)

 

S. Rice (3)

Colston (5)

Nicks (9)

Doucet (10)

 

TE (7)

[phlegmish 4]

I think the WR/RB pool is extremely deep...I'll be drafting a top-tier QB in the first 2 rounds of nearly every draft (Manning, Brees, or Rodgers)...then just loading up on talented WR's/Rb's....You could end up with a team of:

 

Manning (2)

 

Ray Rice (1)

B. Wells (4)

Felix Jones (6)

C. Taylor (8)

 

S. Rice (3)

Colston (5)

Nicks (9)

Doucet (10)

 

I don't disagree with your logic on this one but I see ZERO chance of getting Rice/Manning unless you're in a 6 or 8 team league. Ray-Ray is top 5 certainly and It'll be hard for those 10, 11, 12 slots to not grab Brees/Manning on the swing unless WR/WR is their logic. Even then, 5 more people pick before that dream of Manning would fall into your lap. Since the true #1 RB is really your 4-5 guys all other slots have to consider those top echelon WRs and Manning/Brees, possibly Rodgers and sometime later Schaub. Back to your logic Rice and Rodgers is a freakin good place to be sittin' when your #3 pick turns that corner....

[kmbryant09 1]

I don't disagree with your logic on this one but I see ZERO chance of getting Rice/Manning unless you're in a 6 or 8 team league. Ray-Ray is top 5 certainly and It'll be hard for those 10, 11, 12 slots to not grab Brees/Manning on the swing unless WR/WR is their logic. Even then, 5 more people pick before that dream of Manning would fall into your lap. Since the true #1 RB is really your 4-5 guys all other slots have to consider those top echelon WRs and Manning/Brees, possibly Rodgers and sometime later Schaub. Back to your logic Rice and Rodgers is a freakin good place to be sittin' when your #3 pick turns that corner....

You're probably right - a few of the leagues I play in usually go RB/WR heavy through the first 2 or 3 rounds. I still think you could draft towards the middle/end of Rd. 1 and grab either Charles/S. Jackson/Gore...and get one of the top 3 or 4 QB's (Rodgers/Manning/Brees/Brady (?), Schaub (?)). That's a deadly combination when you consider the depth/talent/potential in the 3rd-8th rounds at the RB & WR positions.

[phlegmish 4]

You're probably right - a few of the leagues I play in usually go RB/WR heavy through the first 2 or 3 rounds. I still think you could draft towards the middle/end of Rd. 1 and grab either Charles/S. Jackson/Gore...and get one of the top 3 or 4 QB's (Rodgers/Manning/Brees/Brady (?), Schaub (?)). That's a deadly combination when you consider the depth/talent/potential in the 3rd-8th rounds at the RB & WR positions.

 

 

BINGO!! I almost want 4-7 slot now.. I suppose going back to OP this might be the "change" in FF strategy we need to use in maintaining our edge ("we" meaning people discussing FF on a Sunday night in April)

[Raider 84 29]

Don't forget about S. Davis

[jocstrap 8]

RB - RB

 

then look who slides like VJ's, Steve Smiths (nyg), 85, Sidney, Miles, Crabtree, and so forth.

 

Give me the running backs, and I'll find a steady WR in the deeper rounds

[jaxjag 43]

I do agree that there are only 5-7 elite RB's that I would draft in the first 15 or so picks (AP, CJ24, Ray Rice, MJD, Charles, and that might be it).

 

But I think it's a lot more complicated by the fact that the WR pool is EXTREMELY deep....Andre Johnson, Moss, Wayne, Calvin, Fitz, Boldin, S. Rice, M. Austin, D. Jackson, G. Jennings, R. White, Colston, Holmes, Marshall, V. Jackson, S. Smith, and D. Bowe have all proven capable of being a #1 WR....Then you look at the list of young, talented, potential WR's: Meachem, Nicks, S. Smith, Breaston, Crabtree, Sims-Walker, Collie/Gonzalez/Garcon...then even deeper: Wallace, Doucet, Aromashadu, M. Floyd, K. Britt, P. Harvin, etc. etc.

 

I think the WR/RB pool is extremely deep...I'll be drafting a top-tier QB in the first 2 rounds of nearly every draft (Manning, Brees, or Rodgers)...then just loading up on talented WR's/Rb's....You could end up with a team of:

 

Manning (2)

 

Ray Rice (1)

B. Wells (4)

Felix Jones (6)

C. Taylor (8)

 

S. Rice (3)

Colston (5)

Nicks (9)

Doucet (10)

 

TE (7)

 

With a pick high enough to grab Rice, Manning probably isn't there that late in the second. Sidney - good as he is - may not be value in the 3rd without Favre. In fact, I could see that WR group being very mediocre.

[jaxjag 43]

RB - RB

 

then look who slides like VJ's, Steve Smiths (nyg), 85, Sidney, Miles, Crabtree, and so forth.

 

Give me the running backs, and I'll find a steady WR in the deeper rounds

 

And after your two RBs are benched and/or hurt by week five... Accept it.. RB strategy has been marginal at best in recent years.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

And after your two RBs are benched and/or hurt by week five... Accept it.. RB strategy has been marginal at best in recent years.

 

every strategy is legit if you pick the right players.

[madd futher mucker 36]

every strategy is legit if you pick the right players.

 

 

While there is really not any more to add to that statement - Just so you realize the old RB/RB theory went out the window YEARS AGO (assuming that it ever really was an optimum strategy in the first place), I have seen studies done over the last FIVE YEARS that suggest it really does not make any difference at all which position you start your draft with in the first round (and I've personally both won - and lost - leagues in which I have drafted any of the skill positions except TE in the 1st round) - but I can't help but add the following: Seasons are generally lost due to the drafting of high risk players in the top rounds, and championships are most often WON by astute (or sometimes just lucky) drafting in the middle and lower rounds.

 

In other words, stay risk averse early (think Peyton Manning, MJD or Andre Johnson types) and swing for the fences late (as in Mike Wallace, Johnnie Knox, or even Chester Taylor types, to name just a few that I will be targeting this fall).

 

While I have Aaron Rodgers RATED slightly higher than Peyton Manning, given the opportunity I'm going to draft Manning rather than Rodgers. Why? Because Manning seldom takes a huge hit capable of knocking him out for the season. Aaron Rodgers has proven his toughness, but he holds on to the ball longer than Manning, and his O-line is more porous. Therefore he is a higher risk type player who is more likely to cause your fantasy season to blow up on you should he lose multiple games due to injury. If you draft Rodgers, you would be smart to draft a reliable back-up from the get-go. 'Bowling ball" type RBs like MJD (Ray Rice is another) are considerably more likely to escape injury than taller "power RBs" like Brandon Jacobs and ADP who give - and take - much more punishment.

 

What I lose by drafting Manning ahead of Rodgers when both remain healthy all season and assuming that like last year Rodgers is indeed slightly more productive, I can more than make up for if I can identify likely "break-out" candidates like last year's Mike Simms Walker and Miles Austin; draft them late and have them hit big. I also like to draft a QB like Peyton and leave him totally unprotected on my roster with no back-up QB (at least early in the season), and draft only one TE (in leagues without a TE flex spot) as well as obviously drafting only one D and K - so that I can draft as many of these late "lottery ticket" RBs and WRs as possible. This strategy has paid off HUGE for me in re-draft and auction leagues in recent years, and I believe it is a much sounder strategy than deciding about whether to go RB-RB, WR-WR, or any other nonsensical positional preference type 'theories'.

[Boston Three Party 6]

And after your two RBs are benched and/or hurt by week five... Accept it.. RB strategy has been marginal at best in recent years.

 

RB

 

RB

 

V Davis or D. Clark

 

WR

 

Something

 

Kevin Kolb

 

Championship.

 

Fill in holes.

 

[RoadLizard 73]

your analysis is backwards.

 

It's not that WRs are becoming more valuable, it's simply that there are less featured RBs.

 

Right...but that in effect makes some of the top WRs more valuable.

 

It is a problem though. No more Emmitt Smiths, LT2's, Shaun Alexanders, etc, etc. One guy gets the work between the 20's, the other guy comes in and mops up. Its a focking travesty I tell ya. No reason for it at all. Its a fantasy killer too since it makes both players less valuable. The TD guy is worthless without some short TDs. The yardage guy is worthless without breaking some longer TDs. What a focking conondrum or whatever that word is.

 

At least WRs dont get subbed for and pulled out. Wayne really cooled off last year towards the end of the season but hes out there in GL packages which is HUGE for WR value, IMO. Moss, T.O., and a few others are also GL targets.

 

We shall see.

[jaxjag 43]

every strategy is legit if you pick the right players.

 

That's true. But when you've already got your mind made up that RB|RB is your strategy you're probably overlooking some very good alternate strategies and not recognizing changes taking place in the league.

[jocstrap 8]

two years ago I went

 

Colston, TO, RB, Plaxinooooooo

 

Colston - injured wrist or something

TO - did just fine

Plaxinooo - shot himself or something stupid

 

I had 3 out of the top 15 wr's preseason - didn't even make the playoffs in a 12 team league that year.

 

 

This past year, I went back to basics - rb's 3 out of the first 4 rounds.

 

CJ2k

Slaton

Pierre

Braylon Edwards:) - sucked also and rode the bench

 

slaton and pierre sucked for me this year - but I won the championship - go figure

 

you never focking know how the cards are going to play out, no matter what your strategy is.

[warpigs46777 0]

possibly dumbest post ever.

 

you do realize fantasy football has been around for about 30-40 years.....

 

nothing is going to change this year, there are always cycles....in the late 80s/early 90s it was all qb and wr's.....marino aikman carter rice mcaffery elway martin montana......same way in the mid 70's with bradshaw swan namath (early) Staubach, etc etc etc etc

the late 90s until about 2 years ago was ALL RB, and unfortunately the world started using the internet and everyone thinks history did not exist in any subject matter prior to 1999.

 

shesh.

 

 

No, that was the dumbest post ever! Aikman was never a FF stud....hell he was barely posting numbers worthy of being on a roster in a 12 team league.

[phlegmish 4]

No, that was the dumbest post ever! Aikman was never a FF stud....hell he was barely posting numbers worthy of being on a roster in a 12 team league.

 

 

Got that right. I remember one year when some mook didn't show up for our draft, we drew lots for slots and he ended up with #1 pick. We didn't have a lot of takers for this game back then so we waited 2hrs for him to never arrive. He finally responded to his pager, yes his PAGER, and, drafting by phone from his job, astounded us with freakin Troy Aikmaniac as the #1....still makes me laugh...

 

 

And if this guy is suggesting he, or any one he knows was one of the few people playing FF in the 60's and 70's he's completely full of shite. I've been playing since '88 and only know one group of guys who've been in since '80 (they're in the same freakin league still). I work in the sporting goods industry and know hundreds of sales reps who are diehard sports fans from all over the country, in the business of sports, and many of them are in their 50-60's (some even older) and none of them were in any leagues older than the mid-80's. The first league was played by a bunch of sports writer and people with ties to the Raiders. Unless you lived in O-Town in the 70's I doubt you'd have ever even heard of FF.

[NFLisGreat79 0]

possibly dumbest post ever.

 

you do realize fantasy football has been around for about 30-40 years.....

 

nothing is going to change this year, there are always cycles....in the late 80s/early 90s it was all qb and wr's.....marino aikman carter rice mcaffery elway martin montana......same way in the mid 70's with bradshaw swan namath (early) Staubach, etc etc etc etc

the late 90s until about 2 years ago was ALL RB, and unfortunately the world started using the internet and everyone thinks history did not exist in any subject matter prior to 1999.

 

shesh.

 

Well said! My thoughts exactly.

[stonewall 647]

RB - RB

 

then look who slides like VJ's, Steve Smiths (nyg), 85, Sidney, Miles, Crabtree, and so forth.

 

Give me the running backs, and I'll find a steady WR in the deeper rounds

 

 

I hope that Miles will slide......but I seriously doubt it.