Sleepers & Stinkers

[Axe Elf 0]

In the interest of making everyone happy--even my detractors--I have structured my picks this week in such a way that a hit rate of 40% or more should be seen as much as a stroke of luck as a reflection of my undeniable fantasy football acumen. I have made at least four errors that any prognosticator worth his salt will avoid at all costs--if the goal is to maximize their hit rate.

 

First of all, I have made WAY too many picks this week. I usually aim to get 3 sleepers and 3 stinkers in each of the QB, RB, WR, and TE categories--a total of about 25 detailed calls per week (not counting a few names I throw out like candy from a passing float in the parade). This week I have a full 39 detailed predictions, along with three or four other names thrown in for good measure. That's just too many longshots to have to come in for me to have any chance at reliable success.

 

Secondly, I focused heavily on a few games and made calls on a lot of the players involved in those games, notably the Vikings at the Chiefs, the Titans at the Browns, and the Patriots at the Raiders. If one bit of my game analysis goes wrong, it's liable to screw up three or four of my picks in one fell swoop. Similarly, making predictions for multiple players on the same team is typically avoided amongst seasoned prognosticators; error number three for me.

 

And finally, although there are unquestionably some gems of wisdom in here that you just won't find anywhere else (I will leave it to you, dear reader, to figure out which ones), there are also a handful of picks that just don't "feel" right to me--despite what the analysis says--and I should probly have edited those out (which would also help alleviate my first mistake as well). But I haven't. I've left them all in as I wrote them, just to give my hecklers a chance to poke fun at my sub-50% hit rate come Monday morning.

 

Don't say I never did anything for you.

 

 

QBs

 

Sleepers

 

Jason Campbell

The already suspect New England secondary can't expect much help from their linebackers this week, as all hands will be needed near the line of scrimmage if they want to have any chance at all of holding Darren McFadden in check. Thus, Campbell lets fly against a defense that has allowed 1163 passing yards in their first three games (an average of 388 yards per game). If you're sweating Michael Vick and you need a cheap pickup that's got a good chance of going 300/3 this week, Campbell's your huckleberry.

 

Matt Cassel

As Minnesota's defense--and their halftime leads--continue to evaporate in the final 30 minutes, three straight QBs have had their best second-halves of the season against the Vikings (Rivers, 193; Freeman, 191; Stafford 257). The Chiefs can see by now that they're not going to be particularly fierce on the ground, and by all indications, they should have their best game thus far in the air. I won't be calling Bowe a stinker this week, as he could catch a couple of Cassel's 3 TDs in a 275 yard day.

 

Kyle Orton

Almost as bad as New England's, Green Bay's secondary has allowed 1153 passing yards so far. Brandon Lloyd should be near 100% by now, and if the Broncos can get Moreno back to catch a few screens, Orton should have a pretty solid day. Denver will likely be playing from behind, and they can't really expect to run the ball anyway (McGahee is averaging 2.9 ypc and Green Bay is allowing 3.1 ypc), so Orton can't help but get close to 300/2 if he can just finish the game.

 

Donovan McNabb

As he has developed a rapport with WR Michael Jenkins and TE Visanthe Schiancoe, McNabb has increased his fantasy points over each of the first three weeks--against some reasonably solid defenses (San Diego, 6 pts; Tampa Bay, 10 pts; Detroit, 13 pts). This week I think these three will get to show off a little against the hapless Chiefs, and McNabb's fantasy points get another big boost--into the 20 point range.

 

Blaine Gabbert

Blaine Gabbert debuted on the road in a monsoon, and his numbers were understandably unspectacular--but he did complete 12 of 21 passes and scored a TD, which isn't really horrible under the circumstances. With another week of practice as the team's starting QB under his belt, he comes home this week to face a defense that frankly has not scared any opposing QBs, allowing a cumulative 7 TDs on 929 yards, and managing only 1 INT in three games. When you can't even get a pick against Jay Cutler, you know something is wrong. Gabbert should exploit New Orleans for at least 275 yards and 2 TDs in a performance that will earn him a few waiver requests for Week 5.

 

 

Stinkers

 

Ben Roethlisberger

Big Ben finally got over 300 last week against the Colts (it would have been pretty embarrassing if he hadn't), but he still has no more than 1 TD in any game this season--and he is averaging over 1 INT per game. I used the Houston defense to call Drew Brees a stinker last week, and for three quarters, they obliged. This week they go the distance at home and hold the visiting Steeler QB to 225/0/1.

 

Matt Hasselbeck

Cleveland has a pretty good pass defense, but they are less effective against the run. Tennessee will be adjusting to the loss of Kenny Britt, and things will be a little uncertain in the passing game anyway. I think this bodes well for Chris Johnson, but not as much for Nate Washington or Matt Hasselbeck, who probly won't need more than 225/1 to win--but I expect an INT or two as he struggles to establish the timing and rapport with his alternate receivers.

 

Tony Romo

Romo will still be sore, and it remains to be seen if he will have Dez. It was hard for the "bruised brothers" to make hay against Washington, and things won't get much easier against Detroit and a boy named Suh--whose opposing QBs have a cumulative stat line of 603/2/4 through three games. Without Dez, Romo goes around 200/0; with him maybe 250/1--but I'd expect at least one INT from a QB who can't put everything he has into his throwing motion.

 

Sam Bradford

As bad as it's been against Washington for the likes of Romo (255/0/1), Kolb (251/2/1), and Eli (268/0/1), you could at least say that those QBs had some tools to work with. Steven Jackson should be carrying the ball more this week--which is probly a relief for Bradford, who hasn't been able to find any reliable receivers amongst the fifteen or so they have had on the field--but it's not any particular relief for Bradford owners. Bradford has been able to avoid throwing a lot of INTs, but at 6.3 yards per attempt, he'll have to throw the ball 40 times to have a solid day--and I just don't see that happening; more like a 200/1/0 day with the dumpoff score to Jackson.

 

 

RBs

 

Sleepers

 

LeGarrette Blount

Blount is the lucky guy to be rushing against the Colts this week--that's good for 100/1, no matter who you are. Since it's on Monday Night Football, and a big ego like his will just love to take the big stage for a big game, I'll tack on another 20 yards and a second TD.

 

Arian Foster

You just said, "DUH!" in your head, din't you. Well, duh away; just look at Week 2 to see why Foster owners would have a reason to question starting him in Week 4--and if you have a solid backup option, you couldn't be blamed for leaving him on the bench until he proves he can make it through a game. But this week he has been practicing fully, and the game plan is for him to get at least 25 touches. Since that will likely include all the goalline carries, Foster gets the Axe Elf vote of confidence for 115/2.

 

Chris Johnson

Did you just "Duh" me again? The next "Duh" you hear will be from all the people who said not to trade him away because he was due to have a big game any week now. This is the week. The Tennessee air attack has been crippled by the loss of Kenny Britt, and it's yet to be seen how the team will adjust for the loss of his yardage. I don't think Hasselbeck will have to force things against Cleveland, which has been pretty effective against opponents' WRs, but has allowed 123/1 to Cedric Benson, 122/1 to Daniel Thomas, and even let Joseph Addai get over 100 combined yards. Johnson can take up some of the slack in the passing game, and he's had a month to get back in game shape now. His combined yardage totals have improved every game, from 49 to 65 to 75, and I believe he'll go over the century mark--and the goal line--this week for 125/1.

 

Frank Gore

"Duh!" yourself. Completing my triumvirate of top picks who get off the schneid this week at Axe Elf's command is Frank Gore. Philadelphia allowed 196/1 to Jackson/Cadillac in Week 1, 114/1 to Michael Turner in Week 2, and most recently, 200/2 to Bradshaw/Jacobs in Week 3. If Gore can't go for 110/1 this week, he might as well retire.

 

Dexter McCluster/Le'Ron McClain

My best advice is to steer clear of the Chiefs' RB situation altogether, because it's almost impossible to tell who will be Haley's flavor of the week. If you already own one of these guys, though, this could be a good week to use him. What I'm seeing from the Vikings is that RBs who catch passes out of the backfield get yardage against them, but don't score (like Ryan Mathews, 118 combined yards, no TD and Jahvid Best, 88 combined yards, no TD), while power backs don't get as much rushing yardage, but tend to gravitate toward the end zone (like Mike Tolbert, 35 rushing yards, 3 TDs and LeGarrette Blount, 71 rush yards and 2 TDs). So for all my bluster against McCluster in general, I'm going to recommend him this week--especially in PPR leagues--as a candidate for a combined hundred yards with six catches, but no score. In a TD-heavy league, McClain could also be a good play, but I wouldn't expect much more than 20 yards or so, even if he gets the 2 TDs you'd be looking for. What about Thomas Jones, you ask? I can't see much upside to starting him--60 yards and a score would be optimistic, as he doesn't really excel as a receiver out of the backfield, nor as a powerhouse short-yardage back.

 

 

Stinkers

 

Jahvid Best

Shonn Greene vs. Dallas front seven: Lowest combined yardage total of his season. Frank Gore vs. Dallas front seven: Second-lowest combined yardage total of his season. Tim Hightower vs. Dallas front seven: Lowest combined yardage total of his season. Jahvid Best vs. Dallas front seven: Lowest combined yardage total of his season (75 yards, no TD).

 

Fred Jackson

Fred Jackson has been enjoying 6.4 yards per carry on the season, against the Chiefs, Raiders, and New England. He faces a defense that has been allowing 3.3 yards per carry on the season, to backs like Peyton Hillis and Frank Gore (neither of whom scored one of the two rushing TDs allowed by the Bengals). Something's gotta give, and I think it will be Fred's average that suffers the most. If his touches remain approximately constant, even 4 yards per carry will put him around 70 yards rushing, and Spiller vultures the score.

 

Michael Turner

Week 1: 10.0 yards per carry, 3 catches for 40 yards. Week 2: 5.4 yards per carry, 1 catch for 32 yards. Week 3: 1.8 yards per carry, no catches. It's a bad week for Turner the Burner to be out of gas--against a Seattle defense that got Frank Gore's season off to a slow start, exposed Rashard Mendenhall, and then held the entire Arizona team to 3.2 yards per carry rushing. If you plot the linear regression, Turner is due for negative points this week, but I'll give him 50 scoreless yards.

 

Shonn Greene

Greene scored against Jacksonville, then followed up with 106 combined yards at Oakland--is he ready to become the back you thought he would be when you drafted him in the third round? Not against Baltimore, he's not--unless the back you thought he would be is one that gets 45 yards and no TD.

 

 

WRs

 

Sleepers

 

Denarius Moore

With many Raider receivers still in dubious health, it looks like Denarius Moore will be the deep threat to burn the Patriots a few times in Jason Campbell's big outing. If New England really sells out to stop McFadden by packing the box, Moore could potentially see something like 7 catches for 140 yards and 2 TDs here.

 

Mike Thomas

If Gabbert is to have a good day, who's he going to throw to? Yep. Thomas is far and away the team's leading receiver, with more than twice the catches and yards of Karim and MJD. He is also the only player on the team with a receiving TD so far--and that came last week from Gabbert. Thomas has a pretty good home field matchup against a New Orleans team that has failed to stop any good receivers thus far. Maybe they will have more success when they really only have to worry about one--but they have to be concerned about MJD as well. Since I'm already in with Gabbert, I'm going to give Thomas 8 catches for 120 yards and a score.

 

Michael Jenkins

Although his stats were rather modest in the first two weeks, it should be noted that Jenkins did account for 26 of McNabb's 39 passing yards in Week 1--and the lone TD. When Jenkins got 9 of McNabb's 22 completions for 88 yards against Detroit, he solidified himself as the team's primary receiver. Now, with speedy Percy Harvin drawing what's left of the Chiefs' best coverage, Jenkins is poised for a real breakout game. Don't be surprised if he hauls in 8 receptions for 110 yards and a score this week.

 

Pierre Garcon

With Collins at the helm, Garcon had been plodding along with three catches per week for 30-40 yards. That's what he had Sunday night, too--until Painter came in for the fourth quarter and found Garcon for three of his five completions, doubling Garcon's receptions for the game and leaving him with a healthy 82 yards in the loss. It appears that Painter could be the man for the Monday Night Football game this week, and while I can't really recommend Painter as a sleeper just yet (I do like him better than Collins), his rapport with Garcon might make Pierre worth a start. If Painter plays a full game, expect 7 catches for 90 yards and a score out of Garcon.

 

Dane Sanzenbacher

Maybe this is more of a "Watch List" alert than a true sleeper, but Sanzenbacher is definitely on pace to become the Bears' best WR in the near future. With 1 catch in Week 1, 3 catches in Week 2, and 5 catches in Week 3, Sanzenbacher is now tied for the team lead in receptions (among WRs), and with a TD in each of the last two weeks, he leads the team's WRs in scoring. His yardage is still much less than Hester's or Knox's, but he's worth rostering in deeper leagues on the potential of these trends. The Panthers have been doing a pretty good job of taking away their opponents' best receivers, but I'm going to allow Sanzenbacher to fly under Carolina's radar this week for 5 more catches, 40 more yards, and another score. Keep an eye on this one in weeks to come--those are already respectable PPR numbers.

 

 

Stinkers

 

Jeremy Maclin

Other than Miles Austin, opposing WRs have not had much success vs. the 49ers--but opposing RBs have. Given that Vick is still kinda banged up and would prefer to hand off to McCoy as long as he is having the success that he should--and a gut feeling that it's DeSean Jackson' "turn" to have the biggest receiving week for the Eagles anyway--I think Maclin owners are destined for a mild disappointment; 5/70/0.

 

Brandon Marshall

The San Diego defense has been pretty effective against passing schemes that are relatively uncomplicated, so for the second week in a row, Marshall avoids pay dirt, but bounces back a little in yardage and receptions. I'll allow him 6 catches for 65 yards.

 

Mike Wallace

As the Texans seek to shut down Ben Roethlisberger, the first thing they have to take away is Mike Wallace. I think they will be relatively successful at that, which may help receivers like Hines Ward and Antonio Brown to pick up the slack a little, but won't make Wallace owners any happier. After three straight 100+ yard games, and two straight games with a score, Wallace is due for the obligatory substandard stinker--4 catches for 70 yards, no TD.

 

Nate Washington

See Matt Hasselbeck and Chris Johnson. This isn't really a good game to start last week's most popular waiver wire pickup. Washington will be startable in many games yet this season, but today, he is best left on the bench as he struggles to achieve meaningful production. Look for something like 4/60/0.

 

Torrey Smith

Another Week 3 waiver wire darling comes back to Earth in Week 4. This one should crash hard enough to leave a crater, as the Jets' pass defense isn't anywhere near as generous as the Rams' secondary, and Torrey Smith will probly look more like Tori Spelling. Smith might get 2 catches for 40 scoreless yards, but that's about it.

 

 

TEs

 

Sleepers

 

James Casey

Maybe he was just a flash in the pan too, but you have to think that as athletic as he is, the Texans will continue to find ways to get him involved in the game plan--especially if the RB situation remains unsettled for the remainder of the season. In leagues where you can start him as a TE, I think he's worth picking up as a backup for now--just consider this another Watch List Alert. He may not equal his Week 3 performance against Pittsburgh--but remember that another unheralded TE (Ed Dickson) did pretty well against them in Week 1. I'll go out on a limb and say he gets 2 catches for 20 yards and a score to follow up his career game last week--but keep an eye on him if Foster falters.

 

Benjamin Watson

The "other" TE in Cleveland has been quietly racking up the receptions and yardage to the pace of a 54 catch, 670 yard, 5 TD season--which isn't too bad for a TE. If you need a TE to fill in while you're waiting on Gates, or have a TE with an early bye week, Watson is worth rostering. Play him this week for 4 catches, 55 yards, and a score.

 

Leonard Pope

Brought with Coach Haley from Arizona, Pope has languished on the sidelines behind Moeaki the last couple of years, but with Moeaki out for the season, and the Chiefs searching to find any offensive weapons whatsoever, Pope has been quietly catching 2-3 balls a week for 30 yards or so--but he broke into the scoring column as well last week. Since I think everyone else in the Chiefs-Vikings game will score, I might as well give Pope his props as well. 4 catches for 50 yards and a TD.

 

Visanthe Shiancoe

And the sixth player in the Chiefs-Vikings game to make this week's list is Shiancoe, who, along with Michael Jenkins, has become a bit of a security blanket for Donovan McNabb, and a favored goalline target. Give him 3 catches this week for 35 yards and a TD.

 

Kevin Boss

Boss had 2 catches for 36 yards last week against the Jets to bring his season total to 2 catches for 36 yards. Other than the relative ease with which the Patriots relinquish passing yards, I can't give you any complicated reasons for considering Boss a sleeper this week--other than that it just feels right (and with Axe Elf, that's all you need to hear). I do think the Raiders would like to get him more involved in the offense. Pencil him in for 3 catches, 40 yards, and 0.7 TDs.

 

 

Stinkers

 

Jermichael Finley

Much as he did in the second half of the season opener, Finley is due to disappear again after his big game with the Bears. On top of that, Denver has allowed a cumulative 4/20/0 to opposing TEs on the season. Look for 5/50/0 out of Finley this week.

 

Dustin Keller 7/104/0

Keller has built a successful season so far on being available to Sanchez when his other receivers are covered. Baltimore, like Denver, has been pretty stingy to opposing TEs, allowing a total of 7/104/0 to the position through three games. I think their combination of pass rush and coverage abilities won't allow time for the Sanchez-to-Keller read to develop in this game. I would say about 4 catches and 50 scoreless yards for Keller in this one.

 

Todd Heap

If Beanie Wells is back in the lineup, expect a return to his usual 2 catches for 25 yards. If Beanie is out, Heap might again take up some of the slack, maybe 4 catches for 45 yards--but don't be too optimistic against a stingy Giants pass defense--he would be lucky to see the end zone with or without Wells.

 

Jared Cook

Some people think that Britt's absence will help to make Cook into all they hoped he could be this season. It might--but not in this game. As I've outlined above, I don't expect much will be forthcoming--nor needed--from the Titans' passing attack this week, and Cook remains a 2/20/0 stinker.

 

 

So... It is time for you to take my challenge and decide which of these predictions I should have edited out, and which ones are fantasy gold. Axe Elf knows now; you'll know on Sunday--but scoffer or acolyte, everyone should get what they want.

 

Philanthropy is my middle name.

 

(Yes, I know that makes my initials APE.)

[Matthew's Berry's 0]

QBs Sleepers (Agree)

Jason Campbell

Matt Cassel

Donovan McNabb

 

Kyle Orton (DISAGREE)

Think he will have a stinker here.

 

Blaine Gabbert (DISAGREE)

Because.

 

QB Stinkers (Agree)

Ben Roethlisberger

Matt Hasselbeck

Tony Romo

Sam Bradford

 

RBs Sleepers (Agree)

LeGarrette Blount (yes)

Arian Foster (Sorta Agree - don't think he gets 115/2 ... thinking 90/1 which is still a good welcome back)

 

Chris Johnson (DISAGREE ... yet another stinker, no to the 100)

Frank Gore (DISAGREE, but he shouldn't retire - more the line/QB than anything)

 

Dexter McCluster/Le'Ron McClain (you say sleeper, but stay away ... so not sure what I'm agreeing/disagreeing with ... I say play McCluster if you are in PPR need of a flex and usually play Grant/Tate/Tolbert)

 

 

RB Stinkers

Jahvid Best (DISAGREE)

Fred Jackson (DISAGREE)

Michael Turner (totally agree - I avoided this guy in the draft ... went from absolute stud previous years to currently Cedric Bensons twin brother)

Shonn Greene (of course I agree)

 

WRs Sleepers

Denarius Moore (I think half your totals ... but still good)

Mike Thomas (Ah, SHEET NO)

Michael Jenkins (Yes, high on him - and currently just high)

Pierre Garcon (Agree again, he was actually dropped in our 12 man league, I just wish I was playing the fool to really rub it in his face)

Dane Sanzenbacher (like the going out on a limb here ... agree to "watch")

 

WR Stinkers

Jeremy Maclin (DISAGREE, if he plays he scores)

Brandon Marshall (agree)

Mike Wallace (big time DISAGREE)

Nate Washington (4 catches ... hmmmm ... I think he gets more, but probably no score)

Torrey Smith (will go from "Most Picked Up" to "Most Dropped" next week --- agree)

 

TEs Sleepers

 

James Casey (Agree worthy, especially if you own AHernandez, AGates, DClark, need a TE/RB/WR/ETC/ETC)

Benjamin Watson (Agree ... will get his. Colt ... focker can chuck it, so if Ben is 100%, he will get his)

Leonard Pope (fock you - DISAGREE)

Visanthe Shiancoe (again, only if you own the likes as mentioned above, otherwise stick with you VDavis, JGrahams, GOlsen, etc)

 

Kevin Boss (DISAGREE)

Gut.

 

 

TE Stinkers

 

Jermichael Finley (DISAGREE ---- won't be monsterish as last week, but will be a score here)

Dustin Keller (agree totally)

Todd Heap (is he even owned?)

Jared Cook (agreed - I think - I dunno - Ten is a cluster F, could be breakout for CJ1/2k, Washington, Cook, or freaking nobody)

 

Axe, I appreciate your insight ... and agree with most of your analysis.

 

I'm going to take a stab at it too and either Agree or DISAGREE (12) ... I believe these will be your 40% wrong

[Axe Elf 0]

You definitely disgreed with a handful of the ones I'm most uncomfortable with--but again, I'm not saying which ones.

 

To clarify about the Chiefs' RBs, I recommend staying away, because I wouldn't encourage anyone to pick any of them up--but if you already have the misfortune to own one of them, then this is as good a week as any to play them (except Thomas Jones, who, because I have picked everyone in this game to score except him, will probly get 145/3).

[Gepetto 988]

I have Thomas Jones, but I'm starting Felix Jones and Greg Olsen over him in my two flex spots. If Thomas Jones has a good game this week and is on my bench that would be fine with me, I always want my bench players scoring points too, just not more than my starters.

[GobbleDog 818]

Some that jump out at me.

 

Kyle Orton

Almost as bad as New England's, Green Bay's secondary has allowed 1153 passing yards so far. Brandon Lloyd should be near 100% by now, and if the Broncos can get Moreno back to catch a few screens, Orton should have a pretty solid day. Denver will likely be playing from behind, and they can't really expect to run the ball anyway (McGahee is averaging 2.9 ypc and Green Bay is allowing 3.1 ypc), so Orton can't help but get close to 300/2 if he can just finish the game.

 

Fantasy gold. At least it should be. Playing a week secondary and having everyone healthy, Orton has a good opportunity to prove his worth. And I think he will.

 

Ben Roethlisberger

Big Ben finally got over 300 last week against the Colts (it would have been pretty embarrassing if he hadn't), but he still has no more than 1 TD in any game this season--and he is averaging over 1 INT per game. I used the Houston defense to call Drew Brees a stinker last week, and for three quarters, they obliged. This week they go the distance at home and hold the visiting Steeler QB to 225/0/1.

 

Fantasy garbage. Big Ben started off slow in week 1 against BAL, but his numbers have gotten better every week. HOU plays shoot-out games and PIT has enough weapons to keep up.

 

Dustin Keller 7/104/0

Keller has built a successful season so far on being available to Sanchez when his other receivers are covered. Baltimore, like Denver, has been pretty stingy to opposing TEs, allowing a total of 7/104/0 to the position through three games. I think their combination of pass rush and coverage abilities won't allow time for the Sanchez-to-Keller read to develop in this game. I would say about 4 catches and 50 scoreless yards for Keller in this one.

 

Agreed. Jets will need all the protection they can get.

[TennisMenace 156]

I unfortunately agree with your BEST assessment and I hope you are right with your DMOORE prediction.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Pretty much like all of your picks, except I'll take Big Ben as borderline top 12 play this week. Good, not great, but start able.

 

Based on you te end picks if you had to choose for one week you'd rank:

Watson>Shiancoe>Casey

 

*Currently rostered Shiancoe-he scored last week and I think AP has his way with KC leading to some red zone chances for Minn.

 

All 3 are available and I need a te play. I keep debating all these guys. Kind of trust Casey the least b/c of unsurity of his role and Fosters return.

 

The titans have been pretty decent vs tight ends so far.

[MDC 5,896]

You definitely disgreed with a handful of the ones I'm most uncomfortable with--but again, I'm not saying which ones.

 

Not until after the games. Then if they do well you'll add them to your hit rate. If they strike out you'll deduct them. It's the Axe Elf way.

 

I like reading your picks and think you have some good ones on a weekly basis. What I don't like is your hedging, lying, and ridiculous contortions when you get one wrong. Man up, stop qualifying your picks and take your lumps when you're wrong. I'd be more likely to give you credit when you're right if you weren't such a b1tch about it when things don't go your way.

 

[Axe Elf 0]

Not until after the games. Then if they do well you'll add them to your hit rate. If they strike out you'll deduct them. It's the Axe Elf way.

 

Nothing is ever deducted from, or added to, my hit rate. All of my picks are scored and included in my final average. If I was picking and choosing which ones to score, my hit rate would be 100%, not 63%.

 

 

What I don't like is your hedging, lying, and ridiculous contortions when you get one wrong.

 

Hedging, debatable. Ridiculous contortions, well, that's why they made statistics in the first place. Lying, absolutely not. I have not been untruthful about ANY of my picks, hits, misses, or stats.

 

 

I'd be more likely to give you credit when you're right if you weren't such a b1tch about it when things don't go your way.

 

I'm not sure what examples you would have of that, since things have pretty much gone my way up until now. We may find out after this week, though, since as I said, I'm kind of uncomfortable about some of my picks this time around. So far, though, I've had nothing to b1tch about.

[gcmmidwest 98]

i agree with elf..!!! especially with frank gore as a sleeper...!!! he will be sleeping on the all day with a hurt ankle...!!!

[Axe Elf 0]

i agree with elf..!!! especially with frank gore as a sleeper...!!! he will be sleeping on the all day with a hurt ankle...!!!

 

 

As of today, he is expected to play. Of course, any injury adds uncertainty. I did say I was uncomfortable with some of my picks this week, din't I?

[Matt Mueller 146]

F*ck this concerns me a bit about Shiancoe. I didn't realize there was another TE in the mix.

 

'Visanthe Shiancoe caught just one pass for an eight-yard touchdown against the Lions in Week 3.

Donovan McNabb found Shiancoe open in the middle of the end zone after fielding a ground-ball shotgun snap. Shiancoe saw just two targets compared to three for rookie Kyle Rudolph, who caught all three for 39 yards.'

 

I have no idea who to start.

 

I'm half considering taking a shot in the dark with Kendricks home vs Washington. Looking like either Watson or him.

[Swoboman87 0]

Gotta disagree on Kyle Orton and Jahvid Best. Orton is going to look like sh1t against the Pack, and Jahvid Best is going to get enough receiving yards to make him a RB1 this week.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Ok Elf, I've decided to go Watson in my .5 ppr league. He's had over 8 points in 2 out of 3 weeks. I can take that and he's currently the reception leader for the team.

 

Sign me up for 4-55-1

[Matthew's Berry's 0]

Ok Elf, I've decided to go Watson in my .5 ppr league. He's had over 8 points in 2 out of 3 weeks. I can take that and he's currently the reception leader for the team.

 

Sign me up for 4-55-1

 

Watson >> Kendricks ... I didn't buy into the Kendricks hype and still don't (even others are hanging onto it like fools gold).

 

I like your numbers ... he was money for me down the stretch last year in just the right time. GOOD LUCK!

[KOTN14 0]

In the interest of making everyone happy--even my detractors--I have structured my picks this week in such a way that a hit rate of 40% or more should be seen as much as a stroke of luck as a reflection of my undeniable fantasy football acumen. I have made at least four errors that any prognosticator worth his salt will avoid at all costs--if the goal is to maximize their hit rate.

 

First of all, I have made WAY too many picks this week. I usually aim to get 3 sleepers and 3 stinkers in each of the QB, RB, WR, and TE categories--a total of about 25 detailed calls per week (not counting a few names I throw out like candy from a passing float in the parade). This week I have a full 39 detailed predictions, along with three or four other names thrown in for good measure. That's just too many longshots to have to come in for me to have any chance at reliable success.

 

Secondly, I focused heavily on a few games and made calls on a lot of the players involved in those games, notably the Vikings at the Chiefs, the Titans at the Browns, and the Patriots at the Raiders. If one bit of my game analysis goes wrong, it's liable to screw up three or four of my picks in one fell swoop. Similarly, making predictions for multiple players on the same team is typically avoided amongst seasoned prognosticators; error number three for me.

 

And finally, although there are unquestionably some gems of wisdom in here that you just won't find anywhere else (I will leave it to you, dear reader, to figure out which ones), there are also a handful of picks that just don't "feel" right to me--despite what the analysis says--and I should probly have edited those out (which would also help alleviate my first mistake as well). But I haven't. I've left them all in as I wrote them, just to give my hecklers a chance to poke fun at my sub-50% hit rate come Monday morning.

 

Don't say I never did anything for you.

 

 

QBs

 

Sleepers

 

Jason Campbell

The already suspect New England secondary can't expect much help from their linebackers this week, as all hands will be needed near the line of scrimmage if they want to have any chance at all of holding Darren McFadden in check. Thus, Campbell lets fly against a defense that has allowed 1163 passing yards in their first three games (an average of 388 yards per game). If you're sweating Michael Vick and you need a cheap pickup that's got a good chance of going 300/3 this week, Campbell's your huckleberry.

 

Matt Cassel

As Minnesota's defense--and their halftime leads--continue to evaporate in the final 30 minutes, three straight QBs have had their best second-halves of the season against the Vikings (Rivers, 193; Freeman, 191; Stafford 257). The Chiefs can see by now that they're not going to be particularly fierce on the ground, and by all indications, they should have their best game thus far in the air. I won't be calling Bowe a stinker this week, as he could catch a couple of Cassel's 3 TDs in a 275 yard day.

 

Kyle Orton

Almost as bad as New England's, Green Bay's secondary has allowed 1153 passing yards so far. Brandon Lloyd should be near 100% by now, and if the Broncos can get Moreno back to catch a few screens, Orton should have a pretty solid day. Denver will likely be playing from behind, and they can't really expect to run the ball anyway (McGahee is averaging 2.9 ypc and Green Bay is allowing 3.1 ypc), so Orton can't help but get close to 300/2 if he can just finish the game.

 

Donovan McNabb

As he has developed a rapport with WR Michael Jenkins and TE Visanthe Schiancoe, McNabb has increased his fantasy points over each of the first three weeks--against some reasonably solid defenses (San Diego, 6 pts; Tampa Bay, 10 pts; Detroit, 13 pts). This week I think these three will get to show off a little against the hapless Chiefs, and McNabb's fantasy points get another big boost--into the 20 point range.

 

Blaine Gabbert

Blaine Gabbert debuted on the road in a monsoon, and his numbers were understandably unspectacular--but he did complete 12 of 21 passes and scored a TD, which isn't really horrible under the circumstances. With another week of practice as the team's starting QB under his belt, he comes home this week to face a defense that frankly has not scared any opposing QBs, allowing a cumulative 7 TDs on 929 yards, and managing only 1 INT in three games. When you can't even get a pick against Jay Cutler, you know something is wrong. Gabbert should exploit New Orleans for at least 275 yards and 2 TDs in a performance that will earn him a few waiver requests for Week 5.

 

 

Stinkers

 

Ben Roethlisberger

Big Ben finally got over 300 last week against the Colts (it would have been pretty embarrassing if he hadn't), but he still has no more than 1 TD in any game this season--and he is averaging over 1 INT per game. I used the Houston defense to call Drew Brees a stinker last week, and for three quarters, they obliged. This week they go the distance at home and hold the visiting Steeler QB to 225/0/1.

 

Matt Hasselbeck

Cleveland has a pretty good pass defense, but they are less effective against the run. Tennessee will be adjusting to the loss of Kenny Britt, and things will be a little uncertain in the passing game anyway. I think this bodes well for Chris Johnson, but not as much for Nate Washington or Matt Hasselbeck, who probly won't need more than 225/1 to win--but I expect an INT or two as he struggles to establish the timing and rapport with his alternate receivers.

 

Tony Romo

Romo will still be sore, and it remains to be seen if he will have Dez. It was hard for the "bruised brothers" to make hay against Washington, and things won't get much easier against Detroit and a boy named Suh--whose opposing QBs have a cumulative stat line of 603/2/4 through three games. Without Dez, Romo goes around 200/0; with him maybe 250/1--but I'd expect at least one INT from a QB who can't put everything he has into his throwing motion.

 

Sam Bradford

As bad as it's been against Washington for the likes of Romo (255/0/1), Kolb (251/2/1), and Eli (268/0/1), you could at least say that those QBs had some tools to work with. Steven Jackson should be carrying the ball more this week--which is probly a relief for Bradford, who hasn't been able to find any reliable receivers amongst the fifteen or so they have had on the field--but it's not any particular relief for Bradford owners. Bradford has been able to avoid throwing a lot of INTs, but at 6.3 yards per attempt, he'll have to throw the ball 40 times to have a solid day--and I just don't see that happening; more like a 200/1/0 day with the dumpoff score to Jackson.

 

 

RBs

 

Sleepers

 

LeGarrette Blount

Blount is the lucky guy to be rushing against the Colts this week--that's good for 100/1, no matter who you are. Since it's on Monday Night Football, and a big ego like his will just love to take the big stage for a big game, I'll tack on another 20 yards and a second TD.

 

Arian Foster

You just said, "DUH!" in your head, din't you. Well, duh away; just look at Week 2 to see why Foster owners would have a reason to question starting him in Week 4--and if you have a solid backup option, you couldn't be blamed for leaving him on the bench until he proves he can make it through a game. But this week he has been practicing fully, and the game plan is for him to get at least 25 touches. Since that will likely include all the goalline carries, Foster gets the Axe Elf vote of confidence for 115/2.

 

Chris Johnson

Did you just "Duh" me again? The next "Duh" you hear will be from all the people who said not to trade him away because he was due to have a big game any week now. This is the week. The Tennessee air attack has been crippled by the loss of Kenny Britt, and it's yet to be seen how the team will adjust for the loss of his yardage. I don't think Hasselbeck will have to force things against Cleveland, which has been pretty effective against opponents' WRs, but has allowed 123/1 to Cedric Benson, 122/1 to Daniel Thomas, and even let Joseph Addai get over 100 combined yards. Johnson can take up some of the slack in the passing game, and he's had a month to get back in game shape now. His combined yardage totals have improved every game, from 49 to 65 to 75, and I believe he'll go over the century mark--and the goal line--this week for 125/1.

 

Frank Gore

"Duh!" yourself. Completing my triumvirate of top picks who get off the schneid this week at Axe Elf's command is Frank Gore. Philadelphia allowed 196/1 to Jackson/Cadillac in Week 1, 114/1 to Michael Turner in Week 2, and most recently, 200/2 to Bradshaw/Jacobs in Week 3. If Gore can't go for 110/1 this week, he might as well retire.

 

Dexter McCluster/Le'Ron McClain

My best advice is to steer clear of the Chiefs' RB situation altogether, because it's almost impossible to tell who will be Haley's flavor of the week. If you already own one of these guys, though, this could be a good week to use him. What I'm seeing from the Vikings is that RBs who catch passes out of the backfield get yardage against them, but don't score (like Ryan Mathews, 118 combined yards, no TD and Jahvid Best, 88 combined yards, no TD), while power backs don't get as much rushing yardage, but tend to gravitate toward the end zone (like Mike Tolbert, 35 rushing yards, 3 TDs and LeGarrette Blount, 71 rush yards and 2 TDs). So for all my bluster against McCluster in general, I'm going to recommend him this week--especially in PPR leagues--as a candidate for a combined hundred yards with six catches, but no score. In a TD-heavy league, McClain could also be a good play, but I wouldn't expect much more than 20 yards or so, even if he gets the 2 TDs you'd be looking for. What about Thomas Jones, you ask? I can't see much upside to starting him--60 yards and a score would be optimistic, as he doesn't really excel as a receiver out of the backfield, nor as a powerhouse short-yardage back.

 

 

Stinkers

 

Jahvid Best

Shonn Greene vs. Dallas front seven: Lowest combined yardage total of his season. Frank Gore vs. Dallas front seven: Second-lowest combined yardage total of his season. Tim Hightower vs. Dallas front seven: Lowest combined yardage total of his season. Jahvid Best vs. Dallas front seven: Lowest combined yardage total of his season (75 yards, no TD).

 

Fred Jackson

Fred Jackson has been enjoying 6.4 yards per carry on the season, against the Chiefs, Raiders, and New England. He faces a defense that has been allowing 3.3 yards per carry on the season, to backs like Peyton Hillis and Frank Gore (neither of whom scored one of the two rushing TDs allowed by the Bengals). Something's gotta give, and I think it will be Fred's average that suffers the most. If his touches remain approximately constant, even 4 yards per carry will put him around 70 yards rushing, and Spiller vultures the score.

 

Michael Turner

Week 1: 10.0 yards per carry, 3 catches for 40 yards. Week 2: 5.4 yards per carry, 1 catch for 32 yards. Week 3: 1.8 yards per carry, no catches. It's a bad week for Turner the Burner to be out of gas--against a Seattle defense that got Frank Gore's season off to a slow start, exposed Rashard Mendenhall, and then held the entire Arizona team to 3.2 yards per carry rushing. If you plot the linear regression, Turner is due for negative points this week, but I'll give him 50 scoreless yards.

 

Shonn Greene

Greene scored against Jacksonville, then followed up with 106 combined yards at Oakland--is he ready to become the back you thought he would be when you drafted him in the third round? Not against Baltimore, he's not--unless the back you thought he would be is one that gets 45 yards and no TD.

 

 

WRs

 

Sleepers

 

Denarius Moore

With many Raider receivers still in dubious health, it looks like Denarius Moore will be the deep threat to burn the Patriots a few times in Jason Campbell's big outing. If New England really sells out to stop McFadden by packing the box, Moore could potentially see something like 7 catches for 140 yards and 2 TDs here.

 

Mike Thomas

If Gabbert is to have a good day, who's he going to throw to? Yep. Thomas is far and away the team's leading receiver, with more than twice the catches and yards of Karim and MJD. He is also the only player on the team with a receiving TD so far--and that came last week from Gabbert. Thomas has a pretty good home field matchup against a New Orleans team that has failed to stop any good receivers thus far. Maybe they will have more success when they really only have to worry about one--but they have to be concerned about MJD as well. Since I'm already in with Gabbert, I'm going to give Thomas 8 catches for 120 yards and a score.

 

Michael Jenkins

Although his stats were rather modest in the first two weeks, it should be noted that Jenkins did account for 26 of McNabb's 39 passing yards in Week 1--and the lone TD. When Jenkins got 9 of McNabb's 22 completions for 88 yards against Detroit, he solidified himself as the team's primary receiver. Now, with speedy Percy Harvin drawing what's left of the Chiefs' best coverage, Jenkins is poised for a real breakout game. Don't be surprised if he hauls in 8 receptions for 110 yards and a score this week.

 

Pierre Garcon

With Collins at the helm, Garcon had been plodding along with three catches per week for 30-40 yards. That's what he had Sunday night, too--until Painter came in for the fourth quarter and found Garcon for three of his five completions, doubling Garcon's receptions for the game and leaving him with a healthy 82 yards in the loss. It appears that Painter could be the man for the Monday Night Football game this week, and while I can't really recommend Painter as a sleeper just yet (I do like him better than Collins), his rapport with Garcon might make Pierre worth a start. If Painter plays a full game, expect 7 catches for 90 yards and a score out of Garcon.

 

Dane Sanzenbacher

Maybe this is more of a "Watch List" alert than a true sleeper, but Sanzenbacher is definitely on pace to become the Bears' best WR in the near future. With 1 catch in Week 1, 3 catches in Week 2, and 5 catches in Week 3, Sanzenbacher is now tied for the team lead in receptions (among WRs), and with a TD in each of the last two weeks, he leads the team's WRs in scoring. His yardage is still much less than Hester's or Knox's, but he's worth rostering in deeper leagues on the potential of these trends. The Panthers have been doing a pretty good job of taking away their opponents' best receivers, but I'm going to allow Sanzenbacher to fly under Carolina's radar this week for 5 more catches, 40 more yards, and another score. Keep an eye on this one in weeks to come--those are already respectable PPR numbers.

 

 

Stinkers

 

Jeremy Maclin

Other than Miles Austin, opposing WRs have not had much success vs. the 49ers--but opposing RBs have. Given that Vick is still kinda banged up and would prefer to hand off to McCoy as long as he is having the success that he should--and a gut feeling that it's DeSean Jackson' "turn" to have the biggest receiving week for the Eagles anyway--I think Maclin owners are destined for a mild disappointment; 5/70/0.

 

Brandon Marshall

The San Diego defense has been pretty effective against passing schemes that are relatively uncomplicated, so for the second week in a row, Marshall avoids pay dirt, but bounces back a little in yardage and receptions. I'll allow him 6 catches for 65 yards.

 

Mike Wallace

As the Texans seek to shut down Ben Roethlisberger, the first thing they have to take away is Mike Wallace. I think they will be relatively successful at that, which may help receivers like Hines Ward and Antonio Brown to pick up the slack a little, but won't make Wallace owners any happier. After three straight 100+ yard games, and two straight games with a score, Wallace is due for the obligatory substandard stinker--4 catches for 70 yards, no TD.

 

Nate Washington

See Matt Hasselbeck and Chris Johnson. This isn't really a good game to start last week's most popular waiver wire pickup. Washington will be startable in many games yet this season, but today, he is best left on the bench as he struggles to achieve meaningful production. Look for something like 4/60/0.

 

Torrey Smith

Another Week 3 waiver wire darling comes back to Earth in Week 4. This one should crash hard enough to leave a crater, as the Jets' pass defense isn't anywhere near as generous as the Rams' secondary, and Torrey Smith will probly look more like Tori Spelling. Smith might get 2 catches for 40 scoreless yards, but that's about it.

 

 

TEs

 

Sleepers

 

James Casey

Maybe he was just a flash in the pan too, but you have to think that as athletic as he is, the Texans will continue to find ways to get him involved in the game plan--especially if the RB situation remains unsettled for the remainder of the season. In leagues where you can start him as a TE, I think he's worth picking up as a backup for now--just consider this another Watch List Alert. He may not equal his Week 3 performance against Pittsburgh--but remember that another unheralded TE (Ed Dickson) did pretty well against them in Week 1. I'll go out on a limb and say he gets 2 catches for 20 yards and a score to follow up his career game last week--but keep an eye on him if Foster falters.

 

Benjamin Watson

The "other" TE in Cleveland has been quietly racking up the receptions and yardage to the pace of a 54 catch, 670 yard, 5 TD season--which isn't too bad for a TE. If you need a TE to fill in while you're waiting on Gates, or have a TE with an early bye week, Watson is worth rostering. Play him this week for 4 catches, 55 yards, and a score.

 

Leonard Pope

Brought with Coach Haley from Arizona, Pope has languished on the sidelines behind Moeaki the last couple of years, but with Moeaki out for the season, and the Chiefs searching to find any offensive weapons whatsoever, Pope has been quietly catching 2-3 balls a week for 30 yards or so--but he broke into the scoring column as well last week. Since I think everyone else in the Chiefs-Vikings game will score, I might as well give Pope his props as well. 4 catches for 50 yards and a TD.

 

Visanthe Shiancoe

And the sixth player in the Chiefs-Vikings game to make this week's list is Shiancoe, who, along with Michael Jenkins, has become a bit of a security blanket for Donovan McNabb, and a favored goalline target. Give him 3 catches this week for 35 yards and a TD.

 

Kevin Boss

Boss had 2 catches for 36 yards last week against the Jets to bring his season total to 2 catches for 36 yards. Other than the relative ease with which the Patriots relinquish passing yards, I can't give you any complicated reasons for considering Boss a sleeper this week--other than that it just feels right (and with Axe Elf, that's all you need to hear). I do think the Raiders would like to get him more involved in the offense. Pencil him in for 3 catches, 40 yards, and 0.7 TDs.

 

 

Stinkers

 

Jermichael Finley

Much as he did in the second half of the season opener, Finley is due to disappear again after his big game with the Bears. On top of that, Denver has allowed a cumulative 4/20/0 to opposing TEs on the season. Look for 5/50/0 out of Finley this week.

 

Dustin Keller 7/104/0

Keller has built a successful season so far on being available to Sanchez when his other receivers are covered. Baltimore, like Denver, has been pretty stingy to opposing TEs, allowing a total of 7/104/0 to the position through three games. I think their combination of pass rush and coverage abilities won't allow time for the Sanchez-to-Keller read to develop in this game. I would say about 4 catches and 50 scoreless yards for Keller in this one.

 

Todd Heap

If Beanie Wells is back in the lineup, expect a return to his usual 2 catches for 25 yards. If Beanie is out, Heap might again take up some of the slack, maybe 4 catches for 45 yards--but don't be too optimistic against a stingy Giants pass defense--he would be lucky to see the end zone with or without Wells.

 

Jared Cook

Some people think that Britt's absence will help to make Cook into all they hoped he could be this season. It might--but not in this game. As I've outlined above, I don't expect much will be forthcoming--nor needed--from the Titans' passing attack this week, and Cook remains a 2/20/0 stinker.

 

 

So... It is time for you to take my challenge and decide which of these predictions I should have edited out, and which ones are fantasy gold. Axe Elf knows now; you'll know on Sunday--but scoffer or acolyte, everyone should get what they want.

 

Philanthropy is my middle name.

 

(Yes, I know that makes my initials APE.)

 

For the most part, I like your picks. Though, outside of Campbell, there is no way I could start any of your other sleepers at QB. But Campbell is a viable option, one I'm considering going with if Dez Bryant doesn't go tommorrow (just traded for Romo, who would be a stinker in that case). Same can be said of your sleeper TEs. Some interesting choices, but unless you are desperate, outside of Watson, guys I wouldn't start.

 

I love your sleeper/stinker WRs, agree with most of what you said, especially with the sleepers. Think you will fare well there.

 

Since my bread and butter is the Browns (or at least they are the only team I've seen every down of every game), here is my take on guys in the Browns-Titans game:

 

I love the Hasselbeck stinker pick. For one, Joe Haden lurks in the solid Browns secondary. The defense also leads the AFC in sacks, so they can get pressure on QBs. On top of that, nobody knows Matt Hasselbeck more than Mike Holmgren (Browns president to those who forgot). No Britt, makes this a logical stinker choice.

 

However, I'm not totally buying Washington being a stinker, only because I don't think he will be shadowed by Joe Haden. Last week, was the first time in his career that Haden was asked to shadow a WR, and that was Brandon Marshall. While Washington is Tennessee's No. 1, he's not on Marshall's level. If the Browns don't shadow Haden on Washington, which I don't think they will, I could see him getting decent numbers being matched up on Sheldon Brown or Dimitri Patterson. I don't think Washington goes off, but should put up a productive game, I'd say 5-80-0. Now, if Haden is on him all game long, Washington is definetly stinker material.

 

I'm also not buying Chris Johnson as a sleeper (even if he can be considered a sleeper to begin with). True, the talent is there and the overall rushing yards allowed numbers against the Browns scream breakout potential. But this is a situation of having to have watched the Browns to see what I'm getting at.

 

1. While the overall numbers don't look good for the Browns rush defense, they have faced two physical between the tackle runners in Benson and Thomas. Benson didn't do anything outside of one (like I've said several times) all-or-nothing run late in the game. Thomas was very impressive, in fact, it was one of the more impressive performances I've seen considering he went for close to 100 yards on the ground and his longest run was NINE yards. He literally grinded out every yard he gained (probably had 20 yards after being wrapped up by 2-3 guys and simply fought to fall forward).

 

2. The Browns have given up one rushing TD all year, and that was on Benson's late run.

 

3. The other back that the Browns faced was Joseph Addai (who put up decent numbers), but still less numbers than he put up on Pittsburgh's defense the following week.

 

4. While they're not in the same ball park, the Browns have had success against speedier, shifty backs in Bernard Scott (4 carries, 3 yards) and Reggie Bush (10 rushes for 13 yards). Like I said, neither Scott or Bush can hold Johnson's jock, but it's something to consider, especially since Johnson hasn't been lighting it up anyway.

 

5. Tennessee's offensive is the worst in the league in giving its RBs a chance at being successful.

 

Add all that up and Chris Johnson's breakout week may have to be on hold. However, I won't call him a stinker, only because I think he has a chance (like Daniel Thomas did) of being a threat in the passing game. But I think a receiving TD is what it will take for him to put up RB2 numbers.

 

As for Ben Watson, if you're in a PPR league and are banking on a safe 8 points, there is nobody who could be on the wire better. The guy is a shoe-in for 5-60 (which could be 11 points depending on how you score receiving yards). He's as safe as they come. Same position, but only if you are TD-heavy, or especially TD-only, Evan Moore is an option. I'm still saying he can get 10 TDs this year on less than 40 catches. He is McCoy's No. 1 option in the passing game inside the 10.

 

On to Jared Cook. I don't see how calling him a stinker is a pick. He's been a stinker all year long. He's a guy who has to do something before he even gets mentioned. He may very well have his best game of the season this week, but all that means is he goes for 3-40.

 

Finally, outside of Browns-Titans but sticking to TEs, I disagree with Finley being a stinker, but credit you for going out on that limb. Like you said, he'll be good for at least 5-50 (which puts him in Ben Watson territory as a decent start in PPR, and not a bad start compared to other TEs in standard leagues). But that's Finley's floor. The ceiling is 8-110-2 (if not more) for him. I'll take the middle and say he gets 6-70-1 this week.

[Melissa Stark 1]

Gonna disagree with Nate Washington. The stat prediction you made looks like his previous weeks with Britt.

Now he is the main threat and should see an increased role as last week, but will draw more coverage.

I would put Reggie Wayne in the stinker column with the Qb situation and Collins concussed.

I benched Wayne this week, never thought I would have done that. Staring Washington and Denarius Moore.

[Boilermaker04 11]

QBs

 

Sleepers

 

Jason Campbell

NE is going to make a lot of people WW darlings this season

 

Matt Cassel

I think Cassel is a turd. He'll do enough to win the game, but I don't see 3 TDs

 

Kyle Orton

<3 Neckbeard. He'll put up great stats in a loss.

 

Donovan McNabb

I think Mr. Streaky puts up an ugly one while ADP carries the load.

 

Blaine Gabbert

NO defense is built to look good against slow passers. Rookies are typically slow. Rough game for Blaine today.

 

Stinkers

 

Ben Roethlisberger

Houston pass D is overrated thanks to Collins. Henne was Henne against them, and Brees completely torched them. Big difference between stopping a QB for 3 quarters or 4. Ben is top 12.

 

Matt Hasselbeck

I could see Hasselbeck getting 2 TDs thanks to a screen or dumpoff to CJ this week. Not the worst start.

 

Tony Romo

Romo is in game management mode until those ribs heal during the bye. I'm with you on this one.

 

Sam Bradford

This one is kind of a "duh"

 

RBs

 

Sleepers

 

LeGarrette Blount

The indy D shut down Mendy, but Blount is going to punch them...in the mouth.

 

Arian Foster

I agree with the other poster that said your projection is too high, but a decent week, better in ppr, is coming.

 

Chris Johnson

Duh

 

Frank Gore

I won't call this a Duh, but agree with Gore having a good week.

 

Dexter McCluster/Le'Ron McClain

I can feel the loathing in your analysis. I think this is McClusters chance to establish himself as a 100 apy/week kind of guy. McClain is going to vulture him all year.

 

Stinkers

 

Jahvid Best

It won't be his best week, but Best has skills and the Cowboys haven't faced anyone as explosive in the passing game as Best yet.

 

Fred Jackson

Less yards, but I think he still scores this week, saving him from being a bad start.

 

Michael Turner

Biggest disagreement of the week, I see a lot of force feeding the ball through Turner this game. The burner is back, for a week anyways.

 

Shonn Greene

Green sucks; next.

 

WRs

 

Sleepers

 

Denarius Moore

If Campbells going over 300 yards, multiple somebodies gotta catch it. Moore is somebody.

 

Mike Thomas

If Gabbert is playing QB for Jac, he's throwing to Thomas. Sometimes its good to be the only option.

 

Michael Jenkins

I can't admit to trusting McNabb yet, but the numbers don't lie, so I'm with you.

 

Pierre Garcon

Sure, why not.

 

Dane Sanzenbacher

You could see this coming in the preseason, but I will warn you to be weary of the Bear's decision making processes. Dane has skills, drive, and a brass pair but Lovie is loyal to his starters to a fault. He's on my watch list too, and is going to blow up one week "out of nowhere", but he might still not start after that because of the team he's on.

 

Stinkers

 

Jeremy Maclin

agree.

 

Brandon Marshall

I think you're a little low, but agree.

 

Mike Wallace

Nah.

 

Nate Washington

Yah.

 

Torrey Smith

I foresee a boom game, something along the lines of 2 receptions for 65 yards with a TD. He's fast, expect 4 - 5 deep passes just to keep NYJ loose. He's going to catch one of them.

 

TEs

 

Sleepers - nice picks here imo

 

James Casey

Benjamin Watson

Leonard Pope

Visanthe Shiancoe

Kevin Boss

 

 

Stinkers

 

Jermichael Finley

Nope. Finley is here to stay this season.

 

Dustin Keller 7/104/0

yep

 

Todd Heap

heap of...

 

Jared Cook

CJ will be carrying the load this week.

 

 

I may have disagreed just to disagree on some of them

[Axe Elf 0]

Wow, I just noticed I left that 7/104/0 line by Dustin Keller's name. That's not my prediction for him (I did call him a stinker, you know), that was just a note to myself in researching how the Ravens had fared vs. TEs this season that I forgot to remove after I had written the blurb.

 

See, Axe Elf does occasionally make a mistake--and admits it when he does.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Ben Watson

 

4-47-1

 

Thank you ELF

[Sho Nuff 719]

At this point is it going out on a limb to predict bad things for Bradford and Shonn Green?

 

And how is Blount a sleeper? Same obviously with CJ and Foster. Seriously...2 guys taken in the top 5 of most drafts do not ever count as sleepers.

The guy put up nice numbers last week and goes against Indy.

 

Typical...you put up a few good out on a limb picks...pad it with the obvious trends and some studs mixed in.

[Sho Nuff 719]

By the way...there was zero wisdom in this thread that cannot be found somehwere else.

Other than the "wisdom" of calling CJ and Foster sleepers.

[Axe Elf 0]

Ben Watson

 

4-47-1

 

Thank you ELF

 

 

You're welcome.

[VinegarStrokes 0]

I really enjoy reading your threads.

 

But, what seems to be a trend here is that you are good at picking stinkers and bad a picking sleepers.

[msudavedawg 5]

Lame.

[Axe Elf 0]

what seems to be a trend here is that you are good at picking stinkers and bad a picking sleepers

 

 

I'm not sure why you would say that.

 

Week 1 I hit 11 sleepers and 5 stinkers.

Week 2 I hit 13 sleepers and 8 stinkers.

Week 3 I hit 8 sleepers and 10 stinkers (not counting the slew of QBs on my "avoid" list).

Week 4 I hit 11.5 sleepers and 13.5 stinkers.

 

So overall, I've hit 43.5 sleepers and 36.5 stinkers. That's probly within statistical tolerance to say it's half and half, but if anything, it's leaning in the opposite direction from the trend you suggested.

[Brian Bozworth Fan Club 0]

All in all, I think you did a pretty good job. Keep up the good work.

[heavy-set 39]

this is a rip off of GFIAFP's gold or turd column.

 

[gordonjerry 0]

Good job Axe! Thanks.

[We Tigers 71]

If you're going to maintain this for the whole year and not make it seem like a weekly fishing expedition, I'd suggest giving yourself some objective marks to hit, like Yahoo's flames/lames feature. Mike Thomas had a decent game (5/73) but didn't hit the 100+ and a score you suggested--is he a win or not? Or Cassel, who had a nice game at 260/1, but didn't get the second or third touchdown you expected?

 

Also, you probably shouldn't include fluff picks like Foster, Blount, Bradford, etc. You have some decent analysis/speculation in there, but Blount was universally ranked as a top RB this week. That's not a "sleeper."

[VinegarStrokes 0]

I'm not sure why you would say that.

 

Week 1 I hit 11 sleepers and 5 stinkers.

Week 2 I hit 13 sleepers and 8 stinkers.

Week 3 I hit 8 sleepers and 10 stinkers (not counting the slew of QBs on my "avoid" list).

Week 4 I hit 11.5 sleepers and 13.5 stinkers.

 

So overall, I've hit 43.5 sleepers and 36.5 stinkers. That's probly within statistical tolerance to say it's half and half, but if anything, it's leaning in the opposite direction from the trend you suggested.

I would have to agree with you if your statistical tolerance for each player is +/- 8 points