Trent Richardson - 6th overall?

[MDC 5,934]

That's where he's ranked according to F Index. Their reasoning is that he's a lock for a big rushing workload behind an excellent OL, and he's a very good receiver out of the backfield who should add 40 receptions.

 

It seems like any RB assured of 250 or more rushes and 30-40 receptions should put up 1,200 total yards minimum. But the Browns passing attack is so bad that Trent will face a ton of 8-man fronts.

 

Then again, that didn't stop Hillis from producing a few years ago and the OL really is very good.

 

Thoughts? Is he worth a mid-1st gamble over guys like CJ2K, MJD, Matthews, etc.?

[Boilermaker04 11]

Absolutely not worth it to me. Besides me being down on him, more specifically down on his situation (CLE offense and 6 games against a strong division), I think RB is volatile enough without adding in rookie risk.

 

I could list off at least 10 backs I would draft before him and feel more comfortable with them as my anchor.

[WhiteWonder 2,202]

Foster, Rice, McCoy, Mathews, CJ, McFadden, Lynch, MJD if all is well

 

Those are the guys i select without pondering Richardson.

 

Once we get into the territory of Murray, Forte, the guys coming off ACL like Peterson and Charles... i would have no problem with someone taking Trent and I would likely do so myself.

[PackYourNut 47]

List their top 10 RB's if you dont mind? I'd like to see who they have ranked ahead/behind him... He will get a lot of work, but so will Lynch and he's proven he can do it.

 

I think he's an early 2nd round pick myself, at least that's where I am targeting him...

[MDC 5,934]

List their top 10 RB's if you dont mind? I'd like to see who they have ranked ahead/behind him... He will get a lot of work, but so will Lynch and he's proven he can do it.

 

I think he's an early 2nd round pick myself, at least that's where I am targeting him...

 

FFI has him 4th among RBs after Foster, McCoy and Rice. They also have Rodgers and Brady as the only QBs ahead of him. MJD and Calvin come in right after him at 7/8.

[PackYourNut 47]

FFI has him 4th among RBs after Foster, McCoy and Rice. They also have Rodgers and Brady as the only QBs ahead of him. MJD and Calvin come in right after him at 7/8.

 

That's pretty ambitious, but I think you can safely assume he will get 250-300 carries and 30-50 catches barring injury. So if you figure 4 yards per touch, your looking at around 1200 total yards. The real question is the TD's... He could have 3 or he could have 10...

 

Next year he will definitely be a first round pick though...

[WhiteWonder 2,202]

That's pretty ambitious, but I think you can safely assume he will get 250-300 carries and 30-50 catches barring injury. So if you figure 4 yards per touch, your looking at around 1200 total yards. The real question is the TD's... He could have 3 or he could have 10...

 

Next year he will definitely be a first round pick though...

 

if he will definitely be a first round pick next year, then that likely means he will perform as a first round pick this year. Value? maybe not but late 1st / early 2nd would seem to not be too high if we think he will be a first round lock in 2013.

[MDC 5,934]

Foster, Rice, McCoy, Mathews, CJ, McFadden, Lynch, MJD if all is well

 

Those are the guys i select without pondering Richardson.

 

I'd take Foster, Rice and McCoy over any other RBs. All of the rest you listed have some kind of red flag whether it's injury, potential holdout, one-year wonder syndrome, etc.

 

After the top 3 RBs, 2-3 QBs and Calvin are off the board, I really don't see Richardson as any more or less risky than any RB on the board.

 

CJ2K had a terrible year.

 

MJD is a holdout risk and another 1,600 yard year on a bad team is a lot to ask.

 

Matthews has constant injury issues.

 

Lynch only had one big year and he's coming off a payday.

 

There's no way I'm taking McFadden in the mid/late 1st, not with his injury history.

 

Is it really so crazy to think Richardson could outscore most or all of these guys?

[Matt Mueller 146]

This may not be relevant at all but does anyone know the team records of Minn, Chicago and Tenn before AP, Forte and CJ had good rookie years?

 

Were they in a similar situation to Cleveland coming of a 5-11 season starting over with a rookie qb?

[WhiteWonder 2,202]

I'd take Foster, Rice and McCoy over any other RBs. All of the rest you listed have some kind of red flag whether it's injury, potential holdout, one-year wonder syndrome, etc.

 

After the top 3 RBs, 2-3 QBs and Calvin are off the board, I really don't see Richardson as any more or less risky than any RB on the board.

 

CJ2K had a terrible year.

 

MJD is a holdout risk and another 1,600 yard year on a bad team is a lot to ask.

 

Matthews has constant injury issues.

 

Lynch only had one big year and he's coming off a payday.

 

There's no way I'm taking McFadden in the mid/late 1st, not with his injury history.

 

Is it really so crazy to think Richardson could outscore most or all of these guys?

 

no its not crazy and i wouldnt kill you for doing it. But for all the issues you (correctly) listed with the above players, they have all proven they can perform at this level when healthy. Richardson has yet to prove that. We can make all the assumptions we wan't and I even said I am willing to assume he is a late first rounder but he still has to prove himself.

 

And not to nitpick but foster had his own injury issues last year and Rice could be a holdout as well. Not fair to kill Mathews/MJD and not mention that.

 

also Lynch has had 2 other good years.

[jaxjag 43]

I'd take Foster, Rice and McCoy over any other RBs. All of the rest you listed have some kind of red flag whether it's injury, potential holdout, one-year wonder syndrome, etc.

 

After the top 3 RBs, 2-3 QBs and Calvin are off the board, I really don't see Richardson as any more or less risky than any RB on the board.

 

CJ2K had a terrible year.

 

MJD is a holdout risk and another 1,600 yard year on a bad team is a lot to ask.

 

Matthews has constant injury issues.

 

Lynch only had one big year and he's coming off a payday.

 

There's no way I'm taking McFadden in the mid/late 1st, not with his injury history.

 

Is it really so crazy to think Richardson could outscore most or all of these guys?

 

Agreed.

[MDC 5,934]

no its not crazy and i wouldnt kill you for doing it. But for all the issues you (correctly) listed with the above players, they have all proven they can perform at this level when healthy. Richardson has yet to prove that. We can make all the assumptions we wan't and I even said I am willing to assume he is a late first rounder but he still has to prove himself.

 

And not to nitpick but foster had his own injury issues last year and Rice could be a holdout as well. Not fair to kill Mathews/MJD and not mention that.

 

also Lynch has had 2 other good years.

 

I didn't mention Foster's injury issues and Rice's potential holdout because short of Rice just not showing up to camp, the overwhelming consensus is that Foster-Rice-McCoy are the Top 3 backs in every format, if not the first three players at any position off the board.

 

And yeah Lynch had 2 other good years, but before last season he had 3 bad ones and lost his job to an undrafted rookie free agent after being selected in the first round with Buffalo.

 

Anyway, of the players you mentioned I'd certainly take Richardson over Lynch or McFadden. That leaves CJ2K, MJD and Matthews.

 

I thought MJD was due for a steep decline last year and had him on my DND list. I have a feeling I was a year early and he's going to disappoint this season. He's a smaller back who's taken a big beating the past few years. I wonder how many 1,600+ total yard seasons MJD is going to pound out for a team that will be lucky to win 5 games? He reminds me a little of Brian Westbrook, in that I suspect he's going to be one of those guys who's brilliant for a few seasons and just falls off a cliff.

 

So in my mind that leaves CJ2K and Matthews and I have these two (along with Trent) about even, which means they're all pretty much equally valued as mid/late 1st round picks in bigger (12-14+ team) leagues.

 

I guess I'd say 6 overall is pretty ambitious but I couldn't blame anyone for taking Richardson that high. There really isn't a big stable of surefire top RBs this year so you might as well go with the young guy who's assured of a very big workload, you know?

 

Food for thought.

[WhiteWonder 2,202]

I didn't mention Foster's injury issues and Rice's potential holdout because short of Rice just not showing up to camp, the overwhelming consensus is that Foster-Rice-McCoy are the Top 3 backs in every format, if not the first three players at any position off the board.

 

And yeah Lynch had 2 other good years, but before last season he had 3 bad ones and lost his job to an undrafted rookie free agent after being selected in the first round with Buffalo.

 

Anyway, of the players you mentioned I'd certainly take Richardson over Lynch or McFadden. That leaves CJ2K, MJD and Matthews.

 

I thought MJD was due for a steep decline last year and had him on my DND list. I have a feeling I was a year early and he's going to disappoint this season. He's a smaller back who's taken a big beating the past few years. I wonder how many 1,600+ total yard seasons MJD is going to pound out for a team that will be lucky to win 5 games? He reminds me a little of Brian Westbrook, in that I suspect he's going to be one of those guys who's brilliant for a few seasons and just falls off a cliff.

 

So in my mind that leaves CJ2K and Matthews and I have these two (along with Trent) about even, which means they're all pretty much equally valued as mid/late 1st round picks in bigger (12-14+ team) leagues.

 

I guess I'd say 6 overall is pretty ambitious but I couldn't blame anyone for taking Richardson that high. There really isn't a big stable of surefire top RBs this year so you might as well go with the young guy who's assured of a very big workload, you know?

 

Food for thought.

 

Lynch - Last seaosn was 2011, before that he had 2 not 3 bad seasons, one of which being the year he was traded to Seattle, setting up last years success. He also dealt with suspension in 2009 and injury in 2010. just wanted to be accurate on that.

 

You are absolutely right regarding Foster, Rice, McCoy... i just think if we are going to talk about Mathews injury history (minor nagging) and MJD's possible holdout, we must also discuss Rice's potential holdout and Foster's hammy? maybe not.

 

It's not that I disagree with you, I just dont think the question marks surrounding guys like Mathews, CJ, MJD, Mcfadden outweigh the knowledge we have about them and their ability to perform when on the field. We still need to see that with T-Rich.

 

I would honestly like to draft in the top 5-6 OR draft at the tail end of round 1 and draft a richardson, lynch combo.

[MDC 5,934]

Lynch - Last seaosn was 2011, before that he had 2 not 3 bad seasons, one of which being the year he was traded to Seattle, setting up last years success. He also dealt with suspension in 2009 and injury in 2010. just wanted to be accurate on that.

 

You are absolutely right regarding Foster, Rice, McCoy... i just think if we are going to talk about Mathews injury history (minor nagging) and MJD's possible holdout, we must also discuss Rice's potential holdout and Foster's hammy? maybe not.

 

It's not that I disagree with you, I just dont think the question marks surrounding guys like Mathews, CJ, MJD, Mcfadden outweigh the knowledge we have about them and their ability to perform when on the field. We still need to see that with T-Rich.

 

I would honestly like to draft in the top 5-6 OR draft at the tail end of round 1 and draft a richardson, lynch combo.

 

Two bad seasons, my bad.

 

Unless you're trying to make the case that Foster, Rice and McCoy aren't the Top 3 RBs it's not worth talking about. They have no more risk than any other backs, much less in most cases, and far higher ceilings.

 

I have Trent around with CJ and Matthews. I could see the case for any one of them as the 4th RB on the board.

 

I am personally skeptical about MJD this year and have him right around Lynch, Forte and Murray in the 7-12 range among RBs.

 

McFadden has more red flags than anyone. I'd seriously have to sit there and wonder whether it's worth drafting him as a RB2 in the second round with so many good WRs and QBs on the board. He won't be on my team.

[KSB2424 3,086]

I'm getting a kick out of the folks pumping up Trent Richardson by down playing the other RB's because they had injuries or a down year or whathaveyou. The only reason you can do that is because Trent hasn't played one down of football in the NFL. Not one down. Of course he doesn't have the injury history or the sub par year like the others do. It's because he hasn't ever played in the NFL.

 

Richardson can go out there and blow his knee out just as fast as any of them.

[MDC 5,934]

I'm getting a kick out of the folks pumping up Trent Richardson by down playing the other RB's because they had injuries or a down year or whathaveyou. The only reason you can do that is because Trent hasn't played one down of football in the NFL. Not one down. Of course he doesn't have the injury history or the sub par year like the others do. It's because he hasn't ever played in the NFL.

 

Richardson can go out there and blow his knee out just as fast as any of them.

 

I'm mainly just playing devil's advocate here to figure out where Richardson should go. I have him at 5 or 6 among RBs right now and maybe 9-10 overall. I'll pay attention during the preseason and adjust accordingly.

 

I will say one thing in his defense though: We don't know that Trent can stay healthy and produce over the course of a season. But we do know that Matthews and McFadden are very unlikely to play 16 games, since both of them have missed time with injuries every year.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I'm mainly just playing devil's advocate here to figure out where Richardson should go. I have him at 5 or 6 among RBs right now and maybe 9-10 overall. I'll pay attention during the preseason and adjust accordingly.

 

I will say one thing in his defense though: We don't know that Trent can stay healthy and produce over the course of a season. But we do know that Matthews and McFadden are very unlikely to play 16 games, since both of them have missed time with injuries every year.

 

We also know that Oakland rushed for 2,110 yards at 4.5 and scored 16 tds as a team.

 

San Diego 1,864 at 4.3 and 16 tds.

 

So whenever the lead running backs on those teams do play, they should be put up good stats.

 

 

Cleveland? 1,531 at 3.7 and 4 tds. Add in a rookie qb and a defense that can't stop the run, 30th in yards against last year, and division games against Bmore, Cinci and Pitt.

 

There's a lot I already know that I don't like about Trent's situation. I'm not bumping him up anywhere until the preseason.

[Boilermaker04 11]

Here's a good article for your reference: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/740775-nfl-the-best-rookie-season-in-the-history-of-every-nfl-franchise

 

It can be done, but....

[Road_Cats 1]

as the guy above said 2 games against pitt, balt, cin. I don't even touch him in the first round at all.

[Doozer 0]

I'm cautiously optimistic, how many other backs are pretty much guaranteed 300 touches?

 

Peyton Hillis is no where near the talent of Richardson and you saw what he did with much less talent on offense and the 31st ranked scoring offense and 30th ranked yards gained... similar to last year.

 

Weeden by all accounts is an upgrade from McCoy, Little is a year older, and a new raw toy WR with tremendous physical gifts to play with.

 

Another interesting note is that Hillis caught 60 balls that year, Richardson has great hands, I definitely like TRich's upside in PPR leagues.

 

Defense has also improved drastically from 2010.

 

All in all, if you want to go RB in round one, outside of the big three there isn't an RB I would necessarily take above him.

[PackYourNut 47]

I think it boils downs to touches in this particular case... You arent going to find ANY backs that will be on the field as much as him if you pass on him in the early 2nd round, which is where I have him going. Now we can assume "injury risks" or "goal line vultures" or "rookie wall" or "proven history" etc... but that doesnt mean that for this particular year we each guy will have have those pros/cons... However, it is safe to assume that Trent will be on the field ALL DAY LONG!

[IGotWorms 3,391]

I generally attempt to avoid rookies as I am a serious believer in the rookie wall. It seems like every time I've had a stud rookie they definitely slowed down considerably around weeks 12-14...right when you need them to get hot.

 

Has anyone seen some research on this issue? I'm wondering if it's just anecdotal or if there really is something to it.

[CedarGrovePack 2]

as the guy above said 2 games against pitt, balt, cin. I don't even touch him in the first round at all.

 

one of those matchups is week17

[Ditka vs. ______ 0]

I predict T Rich to have a season a la Steven Jackson early in his career. Great player, on a team that is so bad that his talent gets wasted. With a Rookie QB, and virtually no other talent around him, defenses will be able to focus on him. I'm thinking 1000-1200 APY and 8 TD's - not bad, but not #4 RB numbers either. He may be worth this pick in certain keeper leagues, but not in a redraft league.

[The Moz 69]

to OP

 

6th overall only if your in a Non PPR league

 

Rice

McCoy

Foster

CJIII

Mathews

TRich -- seems to fit I like him better than a gimpy Charles or a Bradshaw that might be in another RBBC.

 

IMO I likely go Rodgers Here as you know what you get.. then load up on 2 RB's the next 2 rounds

[browns16-0 30]

The debate to me comes in the T-Rich/McFadden/Charles/Peterson range. If push comes to shove I probably take McFadden and pray he stays healthy. All these players have enormous upside, if healthy. I love the Richardson pick as a Browns fan, but I've seen way too many years of anemic offense to assume this dude is gonna get double digit td's and 50+ rec., which he would have to do in order to be a 1st round pick in my mind. I like him as an early 2nd rd pick, and a great rb2 if you can pair him up with a solid, proven rb1. There's no way in hell I take him as my rb1 and feel comfortable about him. A CJ2K/T-Rich combo (or similar to), I could totally live with though.

[giraldi02 470]

I generally attempt to avoid rookies as I am a serious believer in the rookie wall. It seems like every time I've had a stud rookie they definitely slowed down considerably around weeks 12-14...right when you need them to get hot.

 

Has anyone seen some research on this issue? I'm wondering if it's just anecdotal or if there really is something to it.

 

I have. The past three years have been ATROCIOUS for rookie running backs. Last year was "technically" an anomaly due to injuries, but its not good. See my explanation on drafting Blount in the mock draft.

[IGotWorms 3,391]

I have. The past three years have been ATROCIOUS for rookie running backs. Last year was "technically" an anomaly due to injuries, but its not good. See my explanation on drafting Blount in the mock draft.

 

 

This is a very good reason not to draft Richardson. Even if he totally blows it up, he'll probably taper off at the end of the year right when you're trying to make your championship run. I'd take him anyway at the right price but I'm sure somebody will get to him well before I do.

[lexdizzle 1]

Here is a link to an article that is very relevant to this topic: Rookie Fantasy Stats

 

situations i feel are similar to richardsons for this year, which include workload and touches as the lead back:

 

Year___Player________Rec Yds__TD__Rushing Yds_____TD

 

1997...corey dillon........259...........0...........1129........10

1998...fred taylor.........421...........3...........1223........14

1999...edgerrin james......586...........4...........1553........13

2000...jamal lewis.........296...........0...........1364........6

2000...mike anderson.......169...........0...........1487........15

2001...ladanian tomlinson..367...........0...........1236........10

2002...clinton portis......364...........2...........1508........15

2003...willis mcgahee......169...........0...........1128........13

2005...cadillac williams...81............0...........1178........6

2006...joseph addai........325...........1...........1081........7

2007...adrian peterson.....268...........1...........1341........12

2007...marshawn lynch......184...........0...........1115........7

2008...chris johnson.......260...........1...........1228........9

2008...matt forte..........477...........4...........1238........8

2008...steve slaton........377...........1...........1282........9

2009...knowshon moreno.....213...........2...........947.........7

 

 

i expect bellcow type numbers, the guy can catch, and i'm not concerned with a rookie wall. that said, he is an elite talent and if i were to compare, i would like to use a combo of peterson/edgerrin james/clinton portis.

 

he has the athleticism to put up the kind of numbers they did in their rookie years.

 

so best case scenario if healthy (avg of petersonjamesportis):

 

2012...trent richardson....406...........2...........1467.......13

 

[lexdizzle 1]

I have. The past three years have been ATROCIOUS for rookie running backs. Last year was "technically" an anomaly due to injuries, but its not good. See my explanation on drafting Blount in the mock draft.

 

name one rookie rb in the last 3 years that was a bellcow, and as talented as richardson

[IGotWorms 3,391]

Here is a link to an article that is very relevant to this topic: Rookie Fantasy Stats

 

situations i feel are similar to richardsons for this year, which include workload and touches as the lead back:

 

Year___Player________Rec Yds__TD__Rushing Yds_____TD

 

1997...corey dillon........259...........0...........1129........10

1998...fred taylor.........421...........3...........1223........14

1999...edgerrin james......586...........4...........1553........13

2000...jamal lewis.........296...........0...........1364........6

2000...mike anderson.......169...........0...........1487........15

2001...ladanian tomlinson..367...........0...........1236........10

2002...clinton portis......364...........2...........1508........15

2003...willis mcgahee......169...........0...........1128........13

2005...cadillac williams...81............0...........1178........6

2006...joseph addai........325...........1...........1081........7

2007...adrian peterson.....268...........1...........1341........12

2007...marshawn lynch......184...........0...........1115........7

2008...chris johnson.......260...........1...........1228........9

2008...matt forte..........477...........4...........1238........8

2008...steve slaton........377...........1...........1282........9

2009...knowshon moreno.....213...........2...........947.........7

 

 

i expect bellcow type numbers, the guy can catch, and i'm not concerned with a rookie wall. that said, he is an elite talent and if i were to compare, i would like to use a combo of peterson/edgerrin james/clinton portis.

 

he has the athleticism to put up the kind of numbers they did in their rookie years.

 

so best case scenario if healthy (avg of petersonjamesportis):

 

2012...trent richardson....406...........2...........1467.......13

 

 

Nice analysis, but you certainly cherry-picked your sample. Where are all the rookie running backs who didn't blow up?

[lexdizzle 1]

Nice analysis, but you certainly cherry-picked your sample. Where are all the rookie running backs who didn't blow up?

In the link. I was just showing that a good bellcow rb can have a decent season. Trent is a special player like those listed.

[giraldi02 470]

name one rookie rb in the last 3 years that was a bellcow, and as talented as richardson

 

While the talent doesn't match at least in terms of college, some of the previous "bellcows" during their rookie years have been:

 

LeGarrette Blount: Cadillac Williams never got double digit carries after week six. Blount took over and rushed for just over 1,000 yards and 6 touchdowns.

 

Knowshon Moreno: Here's one of the better comparisons simply in terms of equal college "talent". Moreno's final year in college he ran for 1,400 yds 16 TDS. Caught 33 balls for 392 yds and 2 TDS

Richardson's final year he ran for 1679 yds and 21 TDs. Caught 29 balls for 338 and 3 TDs

The overall numbers are for the most part pretty similar. Obviously Richardson is a better overall prospect, but Moreno's all-around ability was praised by most, including Tony Nowak here at FFToday

 

He should separate himself from the pack on his own by late August with his playmaking ability and every-down skill set. At that point, there is more motivation for McDaniels to allow Moreno to pile up numbers and generate some positive headlines even in a loss

 

The Cleveland Browns last season ranked 21st in rushing attempts. They were almost dead last in rushing yards per attempt. Did the draft really help with the offensive line to create holes? Is Weeden going to be better than McCoy was last season? While the lack of contributions on both offense and defense contributed to the Browns having to pass more, it's a trend for Pat Shurmur that the rushing attack has generally been weak.

 

I'm not trying to be devil's advocate here, but I just don't see why people would want to spend the incredibly high price for a rookie running back on a lousy team in a division with EXCELLENT defenses AND good offenses. If he falls to the mid-late 2nd round yeah I'd give it consideration, but in no way would I take him higher than any of the top tier WR's or McFadden/Forte/MJD/CJIII.

[Doozer 0]

While the talent doesn't match at least in terms of college, some of the previous "bellcows" during their rookie years have been:

 

LeGarrette Blount: Cadillac Williams never got double digit carries after week six. Blount took over and rushed for just over 1,000 yards and 6 touchdowns.

 

Knowshon Moreno: Here's one of the better comparisons simply in terms of equal college "talent". Moreno's final year in college he ran for 1,400 yds 16 TDS. Caught 33 balls for 392 yds and 2 TDS

Richardson's final year he ran for 1679 yds and 21 TDs. Caught 29 balls for 338 and 3 TDs

The overall numbers are for the most part pretty similar. Obviously Richardson is a better overall prospect, but Moreno's all-around ability was praised by most, including Tony Nowak here at FFToday

 

The Cleveland Browns last season ranked 21st in rushing attempts. They were almost dead last in rushing yards per attempt. Did the draft really help with the offensive line to create holes? Is Weeden going to be better than McCoy was last season? While the lack of contributions on both offense and defense contributed to the Browns having to pass more, it's a trend for Pat Shurmur that the rushing attack has generally been weak.

 

I'm not trying to be devil's advocate here, but I just don't see why people would want to spend the incredibly high price for a rookie running back on a lousy team in a division with EXCELLENT defenses AND good offenses. If he falls to the mid-late 2nd round yeah I'd give it consideration, but in no way would I take him higher than any of the top tier WR's or McFadden/Forte/MJD/CJIII.

Never, ever, ever, ever compare Moreno w/ Trent Richardson. Hillis, a less talented RB, did wonders w/ the browns two years ago, w/ arguably less surrounding talent.

[giraldi02 470]

Never, ever, ever, ever compare Moreno w/ Trent Richardson. Hillis, a less talented RB, did wonders w/ the browns two years ago, w/ arguably less surrounding talent.

 

Peyton Hillis scored HALF of the offensive touchdowns for the Cleveland Browns two years ago. That type of sustainability, and even worse, dependability, on one position is not a good sign in the modern NFL. Ground and pound offenses are nice, but when you take that element out of the equation, you get what happened last season to the Browns. Four rushing touchdowns. They scored 20 touchdowns all year as a team.

 

Again, I think Richardson will be a good-great NFL player. But this thread was focusing on what IMHO is the clear definition of overvaluing a player based on both projections and assumptions from his collegiate career. All three of the opposing defenses in his division were in the top 10 of the NFL in rush defense. Then you throw in the Cowboys (7th) and the Eagles/NYG who both improved their defense late in the year as well. That's 8 games right there that he and the Browns are going to be facing a real challenge (Cleveland faces Pittsburgh in week 17 so I didn't count that game)

 

6th Overall----Not a chance in hell. 16-20th overall? Ok, I might buy

[lexdizzle 1]

Based on his adp right now i wouldnt take him 6th overall. Im a risk taker and would hope he would come back to me in the 2nd

[Matt Mueller 146]

The Cleveland Browns last season ranked 21st in rushing attempts. They were almost dead last in rushing yards per attempt. Did the draft really help with the offensive line to create holes? Is Weeden going to be better than McCoy was last season? While the lack of contributions on both offense and defense contributed to the Browns having to pass more, it's a trend for Pat Shurmur that the rushing attack has generally been weak.

 

I'm not trying to be devil's advocate here, but I just don't see why people would want to spend the incredibly high price for a rookie running back on a lousy team in a division with EXCELLENT defenses AND good offenses. If he falls to the mid-late 2nd round yeah I'd give it consideration, but in no way would I take him higher than any of the top tier WR's or McFadden/Forte/MJD/CJIII.

 

[Raider 84 29]

I'd take Foster, Rice and McCoy over any other RBs. All of the rest you listed have some kind of red flag whether it's injury, potential holdout, one-year wonder syndrome, etc.

 

After the top 3 RBs, 2-3 QBs and Calvin are off the board, I really don't see Richardson as any more or less risky than any RB on the board.

 

CJ2K had a terrible year.

 

MJD is a holdout risk and another 1,600 yard year on a bad team is a lot to ask.

 

Matthews has constant injury issues.

 

Lynch only had one big year and he's coming off a payday.

 

There's no way I'm taking McFadden in the mid/late 1st, not with his injury history.

 

Is it really so crazy to think Richardson could outscore most or all of these guys?

I like the upside Richardson has as a potential 300 carry back.

[murf74 461]

1. Rookie rb

2. Rookie qb lead offense

3. 6 games vs. Pitt Balt and Cincy

4. Absolutely no wr talent = 8 in box

5. Oline was not improved

6. Its cleveland

 

What's not to like?

[MDC 5,934]

1. Rookie rb

2. Rookie qb lead offense

3. 6 games vs. Pitt Balt and Cincy

4. Absolutely no wr talent = 8 in box

5. Oline was not improved

6. Its cleveland

 

What's not to like?

 

1-2 are the same thing.

3. It's really 5 games unless your league plays week 17.

5. The OL is very good. Thomas and Mack are the best LT/C combo in football.

 

4 and 6 are valid.