Thoughts on drafting TE early?

[PewterFanatic 0]

I have been lurking on this message board for several years running, but had never posted until now so please take it easy on the rookie. I expect the top 3 QB's, top 6-8 RB's, and at least the top WR to come off the board before it is my pick. My favorite draft strategy in the past has been to go RB/RB or RB/WR in the first two rounds, but I am heavily considering a different strategy this year due to the question marks surrounding the RB's that would be available to me and the apparent depth at the WR position. I have never been a proponent of drafting a TE early, but I am drafting from the 12th spot (12 team league) and almost have myself convinced that I should take Jimmy Graham at the turn. My other pick would definitely be a RB. Am I crazy to think that drafting a TE at #13 is a good move? Would I be better off going QB/RB and taking the #4 QB (Stafford) or sticking to RB/RB and settle for two good, but not great RB's? I have seen this topic discussed in other threads, but I haven't seen a thread dedicated to this topic. Any and all feedback is appreciated.

[Cara 0]

I have been lurking on this message board for several years running, but had never posted until now so please take it easy on the rookie. I expect the top 3 QB's, top 6-8 RB's, and at least the top WR to come off the board before it is my pick. My favorite draft strategy in the past has been to go RB/RB or RB/WR in the first two rounds, but I am heavily considering a different strategy this year due to the question marks surrounding the RB's that would be available to me and the apparent depth at the WR position. I have never been a proponent of drafting a TE early, but I am drafting from the 12th spot (12 team league) and almost have myself convinced that I should take Jimmy Graham at the turn. My other pick would definitely be a RB. Am I crazy to think that drafting a TE at #13 is a good move? Would I be better off going QB/RB and taking the #4 QB (Stafford) or sticking to RB/RB and settle for two good, but not great RB's? I have seen this topic discussed in other threads, but I haven't seen a thread dedicated to this topic. Any and all feedback is appreciated.

 

 

Jimmy Graham is the only TE I would consider that early and I honestly wouldn't do it based on where you are picking. Gronk is being seriously overvalued this season and will not live up to his draft status. That said, I would not take Graham in the 1st round. I would need to know who is available at your draft spot before giving any "real" advice. I do not believe all the RB's will be gone at the 1.12. People are shying away from several of the top RB's (on my board) and one will certainly fall to you. If you have the 1.12 and the 2.01, what are you doing at the 2.01? Obviously if you aren't taking a running back at the 1.12, nothing will have changed before the 2.01.... lol That leaves you headed in to the 3.12/4.01 turn with zero RB's on your roster. I would not be happy taking my first two RB's at that spot.

 

Between one of your first two picks, picking that low, you will need a RB. There will be one there, and maybe even two. At this position, you are either going to get a couple top WR's (who are not going to be much different that the guys available later) or you can get two steady RB's. Leave the injury worries out of it as any player can get injured at any time. Take a TE later in the draft.

[vegassandwich227 0]

simply enough, i'd say if you're really high on him, take him. he clearly won't be around for you in the 3rd. you'll probably then go rb-wr in 3-4 and wait til the 5-6rd turn for your qb. i'd say do some mocks, see what RB2 you're left with and see what your WR2 looks like, and if you're ok with that, then that's your answer....

 

...if there are traders in your league, you could also try to trade down in the 2nd, since you could probably wait a few picks to get graham...but you never really know if someone else is gonna take him early too

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

If one of the top 4 QB fall to you draft him and Graham. If the QB are gone draft Graham and Julio. Thank me later when you don't draft a disappointing RB.

[PewterFanatic 0]

Jimmy Graham is the only TE I would consider that early and I honestly wouldn't do it based on where you are picking. Gronk is being seriously overvalued this season and will not live up to his draft status. That said, I would not take Graham in the 1st round. I would need to know who is available at your draft spot before giving any "real" advice. I do not believe all the RB's will be gone at the 1.12. People are shying away from several of the top RB's (on my board) and one will certainly fall to you. If you have the 1.12 and the 2.01, what are you doing at the 2.01? Obviously if you aren't taking a running back at the 1.12, nothing will have changed before the 2.01.... lol That leaves you headed in to the 3.12/4.01 turn with zero RB's on your roster. I would not be happy taking my first two RB's at that spot.

 

Between one of your first two picks, picking that low, you will need a RB. There will be one there, and maybe even two. At this position, you are either going to get a couple top WR's (who are not going to be much different that the guys available later) or you can get two steady RB's. Leave the injury worries out of it as any player can get injured at any time. Take a TE later in the draft.

 

Let me clarify my intentions Cara. I plan on drafting a RB at 1.12 and was considering Graham at 2.01. I will not be drafting a WR in the 2nd round this year so I will either go RB/RB, RB/TE, or RB/QB. Just trying to figure out what the best strategy might be and think going the TE route is my only option where I will be able to secure the best player at a position.

[ACL's 0]

I am amazed that we are in the day when we are even discussing taking a TE in the first round. But here we are.

 

One of the best arguements for it is: how would it feel to start every week with an average of a 3,5 or 7 point lead on your opponent? Now, this is 2012. 2011 is gone. But Jimmy Graham averaged 12.3 Fantasy Points per week. Gronkowski was at 15. If you felt pretty good with Witten (7.8) or Vernon Davis (7.2), you were still outscored right off the bat by 4-8 points per week. There were 15 2011 WR's within 2 points of each other. There were 16 running backs (after Rice, Jones-Drew, Foster, F.Jackson, Lynch and McCoy) within 3 points on the average of each other. Four of those backs are off the board for sure when you pick at 12. Jackson and Lynch have at least small question marks.

 

Of course, you only have to play the team with Gronk or Graham once or maybe twice each. All the other teams will have your 6-8 point TE unless there is a blowup.

 

That said, I still just can't bring myself to buy that TE with a 1st or 2nd round pick. I'd feel much better going Murray/Jones, or Fitzgerald/Jones, or White/Fitzgerald, or whatever your prefrence is. Personally I like RB/WR at the turnaround. When you turn around again you still will have very quality WR's out there. Not so much with RB's. That might lead one to think RB/RB, but I just can't do Murray/Peterson when I could have Julio or Fitz. White or Fitz sure makes Brandon Marshall feel better as a WR2 if he makes it back to you. Marshall, Nicks or Cruz are just not hardly as comfortable as WR1's.

 

Whatever, it has produced one of the funnest pre-season Fantasy Football discussions I have witnessed. Great stuff.

[Ditka vs. ______ 0]

I think this all depends on the league scoring / roster requirements. I'd consider picking a TE with this pick if...

 

A. This is a PPR league - if not go RB/QB

B. QB's get only 4 pts./TD pass - if it's 6, take a QB

C. The maximum # of RB's you can start is 2 - any more stick with RB

[We Tigers 71]

For me, the caution is about scarcity and value. Jimmy Graham might beast again this year, but the tough drafts I've had lately have always been the ones where I lock in my QB, TE, or both early. It takes away two start-one positions and limits you to mostly RB/WR the rest of the way, meaning you can't be the one who jumps on Rivers or Ryan or Finley or Witten when he slips to the 7th round.

 

As Cara said, Graham is the only guy I'd consider for this, but I'd probably rather wait and go after any of the likely 65-70 rec/800+ yard TEs likely coming off the board in the 6th to 10th rounds.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

I am amazed that we are in the day when we are even discussing taking a TE in the first round. But here we are.

 

One of the best arguements for it is: how would it feel to start every week with an average of a 3,5 or 7 point lead on your opponent? Now, this is 2012. 2011 is gone. But Jimmy Graham averaged 12.3 Fantasy Points per week. Gronkowski was at 15. If you felt pretty good with Witten (7.8) or Vernon Davis (7.2), you were still outscored right off the bat by 4-8 points per week. There were 15 2011 WR's within 2 points of each other. There were 16 running backs (after Rice, Jones-Drew, Foster, F.Jackson, Lynch and McCoy) within 3 points on the average of each other. Four of those backs are off the board for sure when you pick at 12. Jackson and Lynch have at least small question marks.

 

Of course, you only have to play the team with Gronk or Graham once or maybe twice each. All the other teams will have your 6-8 point TE unless there is a blowup.

 

That said, I still just can't bring myself to buy that TE with a 1st or 2nd round pick. I'd feel much better going Murray/Jones, or Fitzgerald/Jones, or White/Fitzgerald, or whatever your prefrence is. Personally I like RB/WR at the turnaround. When you turn around again you still will have very quality WR's out there. Not so much with RB's. That might lead one to think RB/RB, but I just can't do Murray/Peterson when I could have Julio or Fitz. White or Fitz sure makes Brandon Marshall feel better as a WR2 if he makes it back to you. Marshall, Nicks or Cruz are just not hardly as comfortable as WR1's.

 

Whatever, it has produced one of the funnest pre-season Fantasy Football discussions I have witnessed. Great stuff.

 

This.

 

Gronk or Graham would give you a nice leg up at the TE position, as those two are clearly head and shoulders above the rest. But, is the TE position really what you want to feature on your team?'

 

Another thing that makes me wary is that TEs seem to get injured quite a bit. Certainly more than WRs since they take a lot more abuse.

[kicked in the zombos 0]

I've done many mocks this year from all positions with all the strategies I can think of. You can take RB/TE at the turn in 1/2 and have a good team. Top QBs will all be gone and the next 6 guys are all similar. Of course this all depends on lineup/scoring. So lets just say this is your first 7 rounds (non ppr):

 

Forte or MJD

Jimmy Graham

Doug Martin

Jordy Nelson/Hakeem Nicks

Stevie Johnson

Peyton Manning

CJ Spiller

[PewterFanatic 0]

simply enough, i'd say if you're really high on him, take him. he clearly won't be around for you in the 3rd. you'll probably then go rb-wr in 3-4 and wait til the 5-6rd turn for your qb. i'd say do some mocks, see what RB2 you're left with and see what your WR2 looks like, and if you're ok with that, then that's your answer....

 

...if there are traders in your league, you could also try to trade down in the 2nd, since you could probably wait a few picks to get graham...but you never really know if someone else is gonna take him early too

 

I have done many mock drafts and have found when using the RB/TE strategy, the WR2 that I get is usually pretty weak, but that seems to be about the only weakness of the team assuming the players I pick play up to the level that they are expected to. I don't put a whole lot of stock into mock drafts though as it doesn't really simulate how the owners in your league will actually draft.

[Cruzer 1,992]

There is no fail-safe strategy in FF drafting. However when you take this approach you really stretch your odds thin and the margin for error is so much smaller in the rest of your draft. You have to have everything go well in order to compete - not worth it to me.

 

 

[PewterFanatic 0]

I think this all depends on the league scoring / roster requirements. I'd consider picking a TE with this pick if...

 

A. This is a PPR league - if not go RB/QB

B. QB's get only 4 pts./TD pass - if it's 6, take a QB

C. The maximum # of RB's you can start is 2 - any more stick with RB

 

Standard scoring league (Non PPR)

QB's get 6 pts

Start 2 RB's and flex (WR/RB/TE)

[CLichti 0]

If your league requires starting a TE you should hope he falls to you.

If your league is PPR it is a no brainer.

Even if your league combines TE's and WR's, how many WR's are going to put up better numbers? Calvin, yes....who else? New Orleans is going to (have to) score the ball and he is their most unstoppable weapon.

 

He is head and shoulders above every other TE (excepting possibly Gronk), VBD makes him a first round pick.

 

 

IMO

[Ditka vs. ______ 0]

Standard scoring league (Non PPR)

QB's get 6 pts

Start 2 RB's and flex (WR/RB/TE)

In a 6 pt. QB league, I gotta go QB. In a non PPR league, I probably wouldn't consider drafting a WR or TE until the 4th round.

[PistonSteve 0]

I'm going best RB/QB at the turn in a 12 team (unless strange things unfolded before it got to you and all three of the top QBs are gone). Jimmy is a stud...and I expect great things this year, but I just can't bite as early as you'd need to in order to get him. If you get a top 3 QB, barring injury, I think we can all assume that Rodgers, Brady & Brees will each be in the top 5 QBs at the end of the year. The RBs you will probably get at the turn are not definite locks, but you can go for some with great upside potential. I don't think I'd take a WR at the turn (again, unless strange things happened and Calvin was sitting there at 12). The top 10 turnover at WR each year is the highest of all the positions (7 out of 10 are new to the Top 10 in the past several years), so it is really hard to predict. I like the idea of getting a stud QB and the best couple of RBs, and then select a few WRs in a row, as the chances are a couple of them will be solid. Even thought it may not be as easy as the past, you still can find WRs on the waivers/free agency each week...much harder to find an RB.

[PewterFanatic 0]

I'm going best RB/QB at the turn in a 12 team (unless strange things unfolded before it got to you and all three of the top QBs are gone). Jimmy is a stud...and I expect great things this year, but I just can't bite as early as you'd need to in order to get him. If you get a top 3 QB, barring injury, I think we can all assume that Rodgers, Brady & Brees will each be in the top 5 QBs at the end of the year. The RBs you will probably get at the turn are not definite locks, but you can go for some with great upside potential. I don't think I'd take a WR at the turn (again, unless strange things happened and Calvin was sitting there at 12). The top 10 turnover at WR each year is the highest of all the positions (7 out of 10 are new to the Top 10 in the past several years), so it is really hard to predict. I like the idea of getting a stud QB and the best couple of RBs, and then select a few WRs in a row, as the chances are a couple of them will be solid. Even thought it may not be as easy as the past, you still can find WRs on the waivers/free agency each week...much harder to find an RB.

 

I agree with your reasoning, but I believe the top 3 QB's will be gone before pick #12 so that leaves me with Stafford/Newton as my only options at pick 13. I don't see Stafford or Newton as locks to repeat what they did last year. Of all the players that will be available at those picks, I honestly see Graham as the safest choice because I think he is the one most likely to repeat his performance from 2011.

[thesitedoc 5]

Graham is THE example to support VBD. He (and Gronk, who I think is going to slide back down to just stud status and not super stud) epitomize value.

 

Just because they are TE's we cannot overlook there ability to outscore the other players at their position. +5 or 7 points on a weekly basis is just that, whether it comes from the RB/WR or QB slot.

 

It is because he is TE that he his value is being questioned. Take him at 12/13 along with either the best available RB or WR (I think Matt Ryan may come back to you) and you are doing well.

 

Also, running backs get injured so the chance to pick up a DeMarco Murray or some RB who surprises everyone this year is much more likely.

[PATSSOX 22]

If you want BIG holes in your lineup sure take Gronk or Graham in 2nd round.

[CLichti 0]

If you want BIG holes in your lineup sure take Gronk or Graham in 2nd round.

 

 

[ ] Understands VBD

[x] Gives quick one line FF advice that helps nobody.

[Quickolas1 80]

my first league started its snail draft

 

FOURTEEN (14) teams

start 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 flex (RB/WR/TE)

0.5 PPR

QBs gets 4 pts per pass TD

3 pt bonus at 300 passing or 100 rush or rec

 

this is also my cheapest ($50) league and has some of the weaker owners of any of my leagues (homerism, less scooping of my scoops)

a.rodg, brees, brady & cam were all taken in rd 1

It's also IDP and in this league, when those runs start...they dont stop...and I start taking all my offensive scoops

 

Perfect storm...awful draft position...so I figured this was the one league I'd go for it:

1.13 - Jimmy Graham

2.02 - Julio Jones (second WR off the board)

3.13 - ?

 

(Gronk just went at 2.06)

 

I may very well go WR/WR or TE/TE with 3.13 and 4.02

[MDC 5,892]

I had Graham last year and it was a huge advantage getting those points out of the TE spot week in and week out. That said ... I would take him or Gronk intel the early 3rd, because it's all about position scarcity.

 

By my count there are 2 elite TEs, 4-5 who should be very good, and 3-5 who are serviceable. The value IMO will mostly be among this middle group - Hernandez, Gates, Finley Vernon or Witten (injuries notwithstanding). These guys will be available 3-4 rounds later than Gronk / Graham and will probably be closer in PPG to the top than the difference between whatever QBs, RBs or WRs are available in the late 1st versus the 4-8 round range.

 

Another strategy is to wait and draft multiple TEs in the later rounds hoping one hits it big. Gonzo, Celek or Keller are at least serviceable and then you draft a Jarrd Cook or Greg Olson and hope one of them has a big year. There are probably 20 draft able TEs this season and since most leagues are only 12 teams and only start 1 that really diminishes the value of drafting one high.

 

My two cents.

[CLichti 0]

I had Graham last year and it was a huge advantage getting those points out of the TE spot week in and week out. That said ... I would take him or Gronk intel the early 3rd, because it's all about position scarcity.

 

 

 

 

Ok, you had me with "huge advantage" but lost me with waiting until the 3rd round because of "position scarcity". Besides a RB who has the whole backfield to himself (not really that many not in a committee anymore) or a QB like Rodgers or WR like Calvin no one gives you more of an advantage than Graham. He's a TE that's going to put up top 5 WR numbers...I feel bad for those who don't get this.

 

 

Note: This argument is moot if league is not TE mandatory.

 

 

 

 

 

EDIT: Just looked it up and last year Jimmy Graham (in his first full year starting....give him a 3rd year receiver boost as well) was the 12th highest scoring player among all RB/WR/TE's including behind a miraculous year by Gronk who nobody thinks he will repeat. The next TE was ranked 48th.

[MDC 5,892]

Ok, you had me with "huge advantage" but lost me with waiting until the 3rd round because of "position scarcity". Besides a RB who has the whole backfield to himself (not really that many not in a committee anymore) or a QB like Rodgers or WR like Calvin no one gives you more of an advantage than Graham. He's a TE that's going to put up top 5 WR numbers...I feel bad for those who don't get this.

 

 

Note: This argument is moot if league is not TE mandatory.

 

TEs are less valuable in most leagues for the same reason QBs have typically been less valuable than RBs - you only start 1 of them. So the difference between the ceiling and the floor (1-12 in a 12-teamer) isn't nearly as great as the difference between the top and bottom at other positions where you start 2 or more.

 

If Gronk scores another 15 or more TDs then you end up with a big advantage. At the 1/2 turn though I think you're more likely to see owners who wait on TE doing better at the more critical positions and still ending up with a stud TE in the mid-rounds or a late sleeper who makes you wonder why you drafted one so early.

 

You're stuck in 2011. Us former Gronk and Graham owners already beat you to the stud TE trend. This year is all about QBs and WRs.

[CLichti 0]

TEs are less valuable in most leagues for the same reason QBs have typically been less valuable than RBs - you only start 1 of them. So the difference between the ceiling and the floor (1-12 in a 12-teamer) isn't nearly as great as the difference between the top and bottom at other positions where you start 2 or more.

 

If Gronk scores another 15 or more TDs then you end up with a big advantage. At the 1/2 turn though I think you're more likely to see owners who wait on TE doing better at the more critical positions and still ending up with a stud TE in the mid-rounds or a late sleeper who makes you wonder why you drafted one so early.

 

You're stuck in 2011. Us former Gronk and Graham owners already beat you to the stud TE trend. This year is all about QBs and WRs.

 

 

No one would think you're crazy for drafting Rodgers in the late first round...you only start one...what's the difference?

 

Trust me, I was on TE's even before last year. The NFL still has shut down corners...a shut down ILB hasn't been invented to stop Graham yet.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Hold on there guys, those saying gronk is bein overvalued might be underestimating Tom Brady's ability to force feed probowls to his target of choice. No one thought gronk would outdo his previous year last year either. not saying gronk over graham but 15 Tds is almost expected from gronk and that's incredibly hard to predict from anyone.

[handbanana 47]

No one would think you're crazy for drafting Rodgers in the late first round...you only start one...what's the difference?

 

Trust me, I was on TE's even before last year. The NFL still has shut down corners...a shut down ILB hasn't been invented to stop Graham yet.

 

I understand the concept of VBD, but what about the value hit that you take at the RB/WR positions when you have to play at least 2 when you only have to play 1TE? When you are looking at the VBD for TEs and QBs, you designate who you believe the 13th best QB or TE will be that year, and then assign value after that. With RBs and WRs, you designate who you believe will be the 25th best WR/RB, and then assign value after that.

 

So, let's get crazy and say that you take Brees at 1.12 and Graham at 2.1. With respect to value, you are looking at how well Brees outperforms, say, Roethlisberger/Flacco, and how well Graham outperforms, say, F Davis/Keller. But now, when you draft your RBs and WRs with your 3-6th round picks, you are looking at drafting guys that are right around the established baseline, especially in the 5th and 6th rounds. So, while you may get good value out of Brees and Graham, you are going to struggle to find value out of your 2nd RB/WRs. Put another way, let's say that Calvin is gone but you believe that Julio Jones/A Johnson and D Murray/J Charles are going to blow up. If you select those guys at 1.12 and 2.1, you have a better chance of getting value because you compare their upside to the likes of Heyward-Bey/D Thomas and B Wells/J Stewart.

 

It is more difficult to find value at QB/TE then it is at RB/WR because of the baseline you set up due to only having to play one. Now, if you are simply POSITIVE the Graham is going to meet or exceed is value, then you probably draft him. However, that is the big if. Will he? It is a huge risk. In my opinion, the reason that people will select a Rodgers/Brady/Brees in the first round is because the likelihood that those 3 guys will meet their expected value is very high. There is less risk. Graham comes with a huge amount of risk compared to the Big 3 QBs. However, if you gamble on Graham and he performs, you get more value out of Graham than you do out of a Rodgers.

 

Simply put, like investing, it is all about how risk averse you are as a drafter. Do you like to gamble? Then Graham is your man because you could swing for the fences and hit a grand slam. However, the rest of your draft has to be really good to cover for the value hit you are going to take at either or both of the RB/WR spots. If you are risk averse, gamble on high upside RBs and WRs early, and then take safer TEs and QBs later.

[PATSSOX 22]

[ ] Understands VBD

[x] Gives quick one line FF advice that helps nobody.

 

There really is not much to explain and most have very short attention spans. But since you would like me to explain. In order to get one of the two TE's that are worthy of being picked early you will have to take them in the 2nd round. Therefore if you do so you will have a rather big hole most likely at RB or WR. Since ive only been in one real draft(other than keeper league)so far ill continue to use it as an example.

 

Example 1-Team Graham
Pick#
6	Tom Brady, NE QB
19	Jimmy Graham, NO TE
30	Fred Jackson, Buf RB
43	Jordy Nelson, GB WR
54	Miles Austin, Dal WR
67	Tony Romo, Dal QB
78	Stevan Ridley, NE RB
91	Titus Young, Det WR
102	Felix Jones, Dal RB
115	49ers D/ST D/ST
126	Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak WR
139	Kendall Wright, Ten WR
150	Mike Tolbert, Car RB
163	Kellen Winslow, Sea TE
174	Garrett Hartley, NO K
187	Alshon Jeffery, Chi WR

 

RB1 is Fred Jackson and RB2 is Ridley. He took Romo in the 6th and if he can package him and maybe Felix Jones to a team with a need for a QB for a RB he will be in very good shape. But until then not good

 

Example 2-Team Gronk

Pick#
10	Matthew Stafford, Det QB
15	Rob Gronkowski, NE TE
34	Brandon Marshall, Chi WR
39	Mike Wallace, Pit WR
58	Roy Helu, Wsh RB
63	DeSean Jackson, Phi WR
82	Beanie Wells, Ari RB
87	DeAngelo Williams, Car RB
106	Nate Washington, Ten WR
111	Toby Gerhart, Min RB
130	Bears D/ST D/ST
135	LeGarrette Blount, TB RB
154	Brandon LaFell, Car WR
159	Matt Flynn, Sea QB
178	Greg Olsen, Car TE
183	Rob Bironas, Ten K

 

Once again this guy took QB in first round and TE in second round. Now this guy is in even worse shape RB wise than Team Graham. Helu may or may not start and may or may not get a carry and Beanie Wells still has a broke knee. If Jonathan Stewart would get hurt he'd atleast have one very good RB.

 

So take TE early =

[PATSSOX 22]

Also i think the people who pick Graham and Gronk in the 2nd round are going to be disappointed with their production. They both had 2 of the best years in the history of NFL for TE's last year. Odds are not on their side for repeating that. If they repeat it sure they are worth a 2nd round pick but ill say they put up closer to 4th round pick #s and are not far ahead, if they do finish ahead of guys like Davis and Finley who you can get in 4th or later. Graham and Gronk are not good values in 2nd round.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

Simply put, like investing, it is all about how risk averse you are as a drafter. Do you like to gamble? Then Graham is your man because you could swing for the fences and hit a grand slam. However, the rest of your draft has to be really good to cover for the value hit you are going to take at either or both of the RB/WR spots. If you are risk averse, gamble on high upside RBs and WRs early, and then take safer TEs and QBs later.

 

That's just the thing. You CAN'T hit a grand slam with Graham!

 

If you draft him at the 1/2 turn, then he HAS to perform as well as you think he possible could or you didn't get your money's worth. There is literally almost no way he outperforms his draft position.

 

Now I guess you could say that of most first rounders, but if the whole idea is to get "value" then shouldn't your target be a guy who could possibly exceed your expectations?

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I understand the concept of VBD, but what about the value hit that you take at the RB/WR positions when you have to play at least 2 when you only have to play 1TE? When you are looking at the VBD for TEs and QBs, you designate who you believe the 13th best QB or TE will be that year, and then assign value after that. With RBs and WRs, you designate who you believe will be the 25th best WR/RB, and then assign value after that.

 

So, let's get crazy and say that you take Brees at 1.12 and Graham at 2.1. With respect to value, you are looking at how well Brees outperforms, say, Roethlisberger/Flacco, and how well Graham outperforms, say, F Davis/Keller. But now, when you draft your RBs and WRs with your 3-6th round picks, you are looking at drafting guys that are right around the established baseline, especially in the 5th and 6th rounds. So, while you may get good value out of Brees and Graham, you are going to struggle to find value out of your 2nd RB/WRs. Put another way, let's say that Calvin is gone but you believe that Julio Jones/A Johnson and D Murray/J Charles are going to blow up. If you select those guys at 1.12 and 2.1, you have a better chance of getting value because you compare their upside to the likes of Heyward-Bey/D Thomas and B Wells/J Stewart.

 

It is more difficult to find value at QB/TE then it is at RB/WR because of the baseline you set up due to only having to play one. Now, if you are simply POSITIVE the Graham is going to meet or exceed is value, then you probably draft him. However, that is the big if. Will he? It is a huge risk. In my opinion, the reason that people will select a Rodgers/Brady/Brees in the first round is because the likelihood that those 3 guys will meet their expected value is very high. There is less risk. Graham comes with a huge amount of risk compared to the Big 3 QBs. However, if you gamble on Graham and he performs, you get more value out of Graham than you do out of a Rodgers.

 

Simply put, like investing, it is all about how risk averse you are as a drafter. Do you like to gamble? Then Graham is your man because you could swing for the fences and hit a grand slam. However, the rest of your draft has to be really good to cover for the value hit you are going to take at either or both of the RB/WR spots. If you are risk averse, gamble on high upside RBs and WRs early, and then take safer TEs and QBs later.

How about you use some numbers to back up this stance? It would be easier to understand your view point if you pointed out how much of a gap you have from the WR and RB you speak of. First off, you have a huge advantage at 2 positions, QB and TE. Just the same as drafting RB RB and having an advantage at those 2 positions. If you have an advantage at 2 positions, it is 2 positions no matter how many you start at that position.

 

Now you say you are looking at the 24th best WR in round 3? Let's say you are drafting out of the 12th spot out of 12 teams and you grab Brees and Graham. Who are the WR that will be available at 3.12/4.01 and use FFtoday's projections for fairness.

 

Nelson 159

Nicks 168

Dez 164

Steve Smith 167

Colston 180

Harvin 183

 

The second best WR point total they have is is 189 points since you will not be able to grab Calvin at the 12th spot

 

189 - 183 (projected total for best WR out of the group) is 6 frickin points.

 

Lets make this more fair and take the lowest projected player 189 - 159 is 30 points.

 

Drew Brees 395

 

If you want to wait for Matt Ryan 353 points.

 

395 - 353 is a difference of 42.

 

You now have a 42 point advantage at QB. I don't even need to go into TE to show how much of an advantage you will have there, because it will be much larger and right now I do not have the time to go into it.

 

The point is waiting on a WR at worst should put you behind about 30 points. You more than make up for that in QB and TE advantage. So saying you are so far behind on WR is overstating the difference. This is not ppr scoring but should be a solidi base to go off of. Of course everyone has their own rankings and may not completely agree but if you have an advantage who cares where it comes from, as long as its a larger advatange than the other guy.

[ralphster 274]

395 - 353 is a difference of 42.

 

You now have a 42 point advantage at QB. I don't even need to go into TE to show how much of an advantage you will have there, because it will be much larger and right now I do not have the time to go into it.

 

The point is waiting on a WR at worst should put you behind about 30 points. You more than make up for that in QB and TE advantage. So saying you are so far behind on WR is overstating the difference. This is not ppr scoring but should be a solidi base to go off of. Of course everyone has their own rankings and may not completely agree but if you have an advantage who cares where it comes from, as long as its a larger advatange than the other guy.

 

42 points in a 14 week season is 3 points a week. Let's say TE advantage is just as good, meaning that's another 3 points. Say it's even better and you end up with 5 points a week. At highest projection that is still a total of 8 points per week.

 

The RB/WRs you'll be getting 2 rounds later (rounds 3+) are (imo) going to net you less than that 8 points week in week out - especially the drop off in a very thin RB pool this year. So you're taking Brees/Graham @ 1/2. Citing above examples you're getting F Jax/Ridley/Helu/Bush/McGahee/Greene as your RBs - hardly combos that inspire confidence on a weekly basis.

 

Considering RB depth this year, I'd be looking to stock up early and then get QB/TE later.

[vegassandwich227 0]

That's just the thing. You CAN'T hit a grand slam with Graham!

 

If you draft him at the 1/2 turn, then he HAS to perform as well as you think he possible could or you didn't get your money's worth. There is literally almost no way he outperforms his draft position.

 

Now I guess you could say that of most first rounders, but if the whole idea is to get "value" then shouldn't your target be a guy who could possibly exceed your expectations?

I really disagree that you can't hit a grand slam. That's suggesting his year last year was the ceiling for TE's...if so, how do you explain Gronk's #s last year? Also, if he does have the same numbers as last year, that's the same as WR1 numbers. If you told me that I could draft a WR or a TE in rd2 and they'd finish with the same numbers, I'd take the TE every time?

 

If you don't think that Graham will have the same season as last year, then clearly you shouldn't take him in rd2...but if you do, i don't see the problem...unless you simply feel that given the RB pool this year, someone at the turn NEEDS to go rb-rb...but let's be honest...that theory is flawed, because the rb's you will be drafting there will have major questions anyway, so it's clearly not a slam dunk...or, if you are saying someone at the turn should go RB-Stafford, but that's not a slam dunk either because you are still getting an iffy guy at RB1 and you're drafting a QB who has had major injury concerns 2 of his 3 years in the NFL, something i haven't heard anyone mention this year.

[Quickolas1 80]

the following RBs are basically (at this moment) all gone when it's Jimmy Graham time:

Arian Foster

LeSean McCoy

Ray Rice

Chris Johnson

DeMarco Murray

Darren McFadden

Matt Forte

 

so now it's Jimmy Graham vs...

J.Charles (major injury, splitting carries)

R.Mathews (mr. glass, out a few weeks?)

A.Peterson (may be part-time for a few weeks, may not be the same anyway until 2013)

T.Richardson (?)

M.Lynch (suspension? when's his next crime?)

S.Jackson

 

so you take one of these "better value" RBs who haven't even gotten hurt in any REAL game action yet. graham goes to the Rice/McCoy/Foster owner. you pass on some later round RB who may have fell into your lap because you have your 2nd round big-name RB...and that RB you love gets taken right after that. oh and RBs drop like flies anyway and 5 out of the top 10 consensus each year usually don't end up in the top 10.

 

graham is the SAFE pick, not the risk.

there are better RBs out there later on than helu and s.greene.

witten is down for the count, fred davis hasn't had a great camp, and j.finley inspires confidence in no one.

HTH

[vegassandwich227 0]

42 points in a 14 week season is 3 points a week.

To me, looking at it this way is wrong. The more accurate way, to me, given how things really work out, is a 10 pt difference in 4 weeks or 14pt difference in 3 weeks. That's usually what makes a tier1 player better than a tier2 player, as any season plays out...more stud weeks over the course of the season, or bigger stud weeks than stud weeks of lesser players...

 

And looking at it this way makes it more visible how a stud player affects your W-L record.

[MDC 5,892]

No one would think you're crazy for drafting Rodgers in the late first round...you only start one...what's the difference?

 

Trust me, I was on TE's even before last year. The NFL still has shut down corners...a shut down ILB hasn't been invented to stop Graham yet.

 

1. I expect the difference between Rodgers and the 12th or 14th best fantasy QB (depending on the size of your league) is going to be greater than the difference between the 1-12/14 TEs. My expectation is that Gronk / Graham both have good seasons but they don't replicate last year's stats, so the difference between the TE ceiling and floor will be tighter. On the other hand I still expect Rodgers / Brady to give owners a notable advantage over most of their competition on a week by week basis.

 

2. I think several late round TEs have a chance to climb into the Top 5-10 range at their position. I don't see that kind of fluidity at the QB position. When you get down to the 10-12 round range you can still land guys like Fred Davis, Cook, Keller, Olson, etc. At least a few late round TEs are going to crack the Top 10 at their positions. Maybe we get one late round QB who becomes a fantasy stud but that would be about it. There are just many more fantasy relevant TEs than QBs this year.

 

The other thing is, if you draft a RB or WR in the 2nd and he gets hurt or underperforms you can probably weather that storm if you're set up at other positions. If you draft Graham or Gronk at the 1/2 turn and he ends up suffering a serious injury, you're probably thinner at RB/WR already and I expect you're focked.

 

I'm not saying you can't make this strategy work, just saying I do not think taking Graham / Gronk early is going to be a winning strategy this year.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

42 points in a 14 week season is 3 points a week. Let's say TE advantage is just as good, meaning that's another 3 points. Say it's even better and you end up with 5 points a week. At highest projection that is still a total of 8 points per week.

 

The RB/WRs you'll be getting 2 rounds later (rounds 3+) are (imo) going to net you less than that 8 points week in week out - especially the drop off in a very thin RB pool this year. So you're taking Brees/Graham @ 1/2. Citing above examples you're getting F Jax/Ridley/Helu/Bush/McGahee/Greene as your RBs - hardly combos that inspire confidence on a weekly basis.

 

Considering RB depth this year, I'd be looking to stock up early and then get QB/TE later.

If you are talking about the first 4 RB I can agree with that. But I was choosing the 12th spot to draft from that has much more iffy RB to choose from. I chose that draft spot so that you have the last pick in the 3rd round thus limiting the WR you get there even more.

 

At 1.12 the RB you are looking at are

Murray 191

AP 178

MJD 215

Charles 196

 

At 3.12 the closest RB are

Doug Martin 181

Frank Gore 168

R. Bush 161

 

I am not going to use MJD as he is a huge question mark and his coaches are saying he probably wouldn't even start the season as the RB1 because of his lack of practice. Who knows if this is true or not but we will go to the second best projected back with charles.

 

If we take Charles and subtract the worst back in R. Bush 196 - 161 = 35 points. This to me is still less than the 42 point differential between the QB.

 

Let's take a look at TE and see what the numbers say. I am going to just use 1 as people seem to have Graham as the favorite at this point in the preseason.

 

Graham 215

 

Now I will give you the 4th ranked TE, one that you will have to draft at 4.01 if you want one of the top 4, or at least what FFToday lists as their top 4.

 

Gates 132

 

215 - 132 is a difference of 83 points. That really stands out to me. There are not many positions where the drop off from 1 - 4 is this great. QB and RB are probably similar but remember at 1.12 we do not have a shot at one of the top 4 RB.

 

If you want more value out of other positions and decide to wait longer on TE we will look at the seventh ranked TE. You can get him pretty damn late.

 

Dustin Keller 122

 

FFC has him going in the 13th round so if he finishes as the seventh best TE that is a deal. 215 - 122. With this logic FFToday is telling us that drafting Gates would be an absolute waste as the difference between the fourth TE and the seventh TE is only 10 points. The difference is even larger when you consider 5th round ADP or 13th round. The difference between Graham and Keller however is now at 93 points. An average of 5.8 points per game. That is a significant difference.

 

Remember all guys I chose I used FFC for their ADP and I used FFToday for their projected points and rank. Obviously these numbers do not tell the whole story and I am taking small examples for these situations. Some will say I am skewing the numbers in the favor of my argument. If that is the case I do not intend to mislead anyone into my way of thinking. If the numbers tell me I am making a mistake and should draft a RB instead then I am not so proud as to lie to myself and others just to get a point across. I play the game to win and the only people I mislead are the IRS and my wife (no no no I am just kidding, hope she isn't on the boards in disguise).

 

From this brief study of the numbers I feel that QB and TE have an advantage over drafting a RB in the first 2 rounds. I add that to the rate at which RB get injured and that just compounds the belief I have of RB being riskier and less important than others see them. If you want to argue that you should take one of the top 3 RB I will not dispute that, especially if the top 3 QB are taken and you end up with a chance to take Rice, Mccoy, Foster. Also I know this data is not very organized. I am not a complete stat freak like some are. I use numbers to guide me but do not claim to be a statistician.

[vegassandwich227 0]

1. I expect the difference between Rodgers and the 12th or 14th best fantasy QB (depending on the size of your league) is going to be greater than the difference between the 1-12/14 TEs. My expectation is that Gronk / Graham both have good seasons but they don't replicate last year's stats, so the difference between the TE ceiling and floor will be tighter. On the other hand I still expect Rodgers / Brady to give owners a notable advantage over most of their competition on a week by week basis.

 

 

2. I think several late round TEs have a chance to climb into the Top 5-10 range at their position. I don't see that kind of fluidity at the QB position. When you get down to the 10-12 round range you can still land guys like Fred Davis, Cook, Keller, Olson, etc. At least a few late round TEs are going to crack the Top 10 at their positions. Maybe we get one late round QB who becomes a fantasy stud but that would be about it. There are just many more fantasy relevant TEs than QBs this year.

 

1.If you expect their production to drop, then you clearly wouldn't take them in rd2...but the question being discussed really isn't whether they repeat...the question is if they repeat (talking graham level from last year, not gronk's), where should they go.

2.Are you saying that you don't think there are enough QB's drafted late in the draft (so, take as QB15+) that have a chance to finish as a QB5-QB10? Of course there are! Also, to say that some later round TE's will finish the year as top10 TE's is absolutely true, but it's equally true that if you wait long to take your TE1, you have a good chance of having him totally suck...see TE's last year like Marcedes Lewis, Zach Miller, Todd Heap, or Lance Kendricks from last year. Personally, I'd probably lean toward saying that a low tier1 QB has much less risk than a low tier1 TE...of course, the pts at stake are 2x as high for QB's than TE's, but that doesn't simply imply that taking a TE in early rd2 is a mistake.

[ACL's 0]

If you are talking about the first 4 RB I can agree with that. But I was choosing the 12th spot to draft from that has much more iffy RB to choose from. I chose that draft spot so that you have the last pick in the 3rd round thus limiting the WR you get there even more.

 

At 1.12 the RB you are looking at are

Murray 191

AP 178

MJD 215

Charles 196

 

At 3.12 the closest RB are

Doug Martin 181

Frank Gore 168

R. Bush 161

 

I am not going to use MJD as he is a huge question mark and his coaches are saying he probably wouldn't even start the season as the RB1 because of his lack of practice. Who knows if this is true or not but we will go to the second best projected back with charles.

 

If we take Charles and subtract the worst back in R. Bush 196 - 161 = 35 points. This to me is still less than the 42 point differential between the QB.

 

Let's take a look at TE and see what the numbers say. I am going to just use 1 as people seem to have Graham as the favorite at this point in the preseason.

 

Graham 215

 

Now I will give you the 4th ranked TE, one that you will have to draft at 4.01 if you want one of the top 4, or at least what FFToday lists as their top 4.

 

Gates 132

 

215 - 132 is a difference of 83 points. That really stands out to me. There are not many positions where the drop off from 1 - 4 is this great. QB and RB are probably similar but remember at 1.12 we do not have a shot at one of the top 4 RB.

 

If you want more value out of other positions and decide to wait longer on TE we will look at the seventh ranked TE. You can get him pretty damn late.

 

Dustin Keller 122

 

FFC has him going in the 13th round so if he finishes as the seventh best TE that is a deal. 215 - 122. With this logic FFToday is telling us that drafting Gates would be an absolute waste as the difference between the fourth TE and the seventh TE is only 10 points. The difference is even larger when you consider 5th round ADP or 13th round. The difference between Graham and Keller however is now at 93 points. An average of 5.8 points per game. That is a significant difference.

 

Remember all guys I chose I used FFC for their ADP and I used FFToday for their projected points and rank. Obviously these numbers do not tell the whole story and I am taking small examples for these situations. Some will say I am skewing the numbers in the favor of my argument. If that is the case I do not intend to mislead anyone into my way of thinking. If the numbers tell me I am making a mistake and should draft a RB instead then I am not so proud as to lie to myself and others just to get a point across. I play the game to win and the only people I mislead are the IRS and my wife (no no no I am just kidding, hope she isn't on the boards in disguise).

 

From this brief study of the numbers I feel that QB and TE have an advantage over drafting a RB in the first 2 rounds. I add that to the rate at which RB get injured and that just compounds the belief I have of RB being riskier and less important than others see them. If you want to argue that you should take one of the top 3 RB I will not dispute that, especially if the top 3 QB are taken and you end up with a chance to take Rice, Mccoy, Foster. Also I know this data is not very organized. I am not a complete stat freak like some are. I use numbers to guide me but do not claim to be a statistician.

 

Great discussion!!

 

But don't we have to take into account that in head-to-head league's you are only at that TE to TE disadvantage one to three times during the regular season? Does that make a difference. Most weeks you are not Gates vs Gronk. You are Gates versus Davis or a healthy Witten and the like. Heck, you might even luck up and get Gronk or Graham on a bye week when you have to match up with them. 13 regular season games. At least 9 will not give you that matchup.

 

Wouldn't that suggest that we still take the better player at 12 or 13; and if you decide that better player is Graham or Gronk, then so be it?

[vegassandwich227 0]

According to footballguys adp, these are the position ranks that (on average) will be available for someone with the 12th pick:

Rd 1-2: QB4, RB8, WR2, TE1

Rd 3-4: QB6, RB18, WR12, TE3

Rd 5-6: QB11, RB23, WR23, TE6

Rd 7-8: QB14 (assume QB12, since QB adp's get distorted past 12), RB33, WR32, TE8

 

If someone really wanted to break it down, they could run all position-by-rd scenarios based on the above, using the assumption that all owners have the same player rankings, and compare the starting lineup pts that you'd get drafting a TE early vs other scenarios...that's what i do for my draft slots...usually it's pretty marginal. Of course, analysis like that assumes a player will get his projected fantasy pts and doesn't weigh in boom/bust likelihoods, but then again those likelihoods are already weighed into the projections to some degree.