I am Now A Firm Believer in Zero RB Theory

[brotherbock 349]

I love reading replies from people that think there is skill involved in this...

And I love reading posts from people who think there isn't skill. Tell you what, let's start a league for the remainder of the season, just you and I. I'll do business as usual, you roll dice for every single decision you make. Who to draft, who to start, who to pickup, who to cut, etc. When you're done starting Baltimore's fifth string wide out as your WR1, we'll talk again.

 

Sure, it's all just luck. No intelligence required. Sure.

[brotherbock 349]

Was it unskilled when I took A Luck as my Qb1 and Jordan Matthews as my Wr1? Because those two picks have me feeling a bit unlucky.

Do you think that anything I've said here indicates that luck doesn't play a factor in the game? I have in fact specifically indicated that there is an element of luck, as well as things that aren't luck but are close enough to count for purposes of the discussion. Are you saying that because the season did not go *exactly* as you predicted in the preseason, it is therefore ALL luck, no skill?

[tanatastic 2,061]

And I love reading posts from people who think there isn't skill. Tell you what, let's start a league for the remainder of the season, just you and I. I'll do business as usual, you roll dice for every single decision you make. Who to draft, who to start, who to pickup, who to cut, etc. When you're done starting Baltimore's fifth string wide out as your WR1, we'll talk again.

 

Sure, it's all just luck. No intelligence required. Sure.

Yes it takes some knowledge but once you have that basic knowledge the playing feild is level. Pretty much you cant be good at FF but you CAN be bad. Obviously drafting kicker first and taking bad players means your bad. But those are Tacos, most players are at a certain level of knowledge and football accumen. Once your at that point, your no different than the best FF players in the world. Dont be a taco and you are as good as anyone. Also our league taco has won twice so even that goes out the window sometimes.

[posty 2,296]

And I love reading posts from people who think there isn't skill. Tell you what, let's start a league for the remainder of the season, just you and I. I'll do business as usual, you roll dice for every single decision you make. Who to draft, who to start, who to pickup, who to cut, etc. When you're done starting Baltimore's fifth string wide out as your WR1, we'll talk again.

 

Sure, it's all just luck. No intelligence required. Sure.

So where is the "skill"?

[tanatastic 2,061]

So where is the "skill"?

Hes about to respond with some yarn about "well if you analyze the matchups and trrack snap counts and blah blah" wich is kewl in theory but never in practice. Matchups and such are complete fluff, every week they are half right and half wrong. Ill answer for him. The only skill involved is "not being an idiot". Know how to set a lineup? Know basic draft strategy and theory like positional scarcity? Know wich players are good and can make informed and timely waiver wire pickups? then you are as good at FF as anyone in the world.

 

I can pretend im better than that. I look 3 weeks ahead and plan my defense, trades, watch weather, pick up FA weeks in advance around my bye weeks. Makes me great right? I just lost to he worst team with the worst record in 2 dif leagues on fluke 80yd tds in garbage time and my guys couldnt ghvae a decent game vs the leagues worst defense.

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

Do you think that anything I've said here indicates that luck doesn't play a factor in the game? I have in fact specifically indicated that there is an element of luck, as well as things that aren't luck but are close enough to count for purposes of the discussion. Are you saying that because the season did not go *exactly* as you predicted in the preseason, it is therefore ALL luck, no skill?

No. There is skill involved, to a point. Yeah, if you're a KC homer and you draft all Chiefs, you have no shot. But if we're all working at about the same skill level, then it becomes mostly about luck.

[posty 2,296]

Hes about to respond with some yarn about "well if you analyze the matchups and trrack snap counts and blah blah" wich is kewl in theory but never in practice. Matchups and such are complete fluff, every week they are half right and half wrong. Ill answer for him. The only skill involved is "not being an idiot". Know how to set a lineup? Know basic draft strategy and theory like positional scarcity? Know wich players are good and can make informed and timely waiver wire pickups? then you are as good at FF as anyone in the world.

Correct... And technically this isn't a "skill"... The only "skill" in this is knowing how to read and comprehend...

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

Hes about to respond with some yarn about "well if you analyze the matchups and trrack snap counts and blah blah" wich is kewl in theory but never in practice. Matchups and such are complete fluff, every week they are half right and half wrong. Ill answer for him. The only skill involved is "not being an idiot". Know how to set a lineup? Know basic draft strategy and theory like positional scarcity? Know wich players are good and can make informed and timely waiver wire pickups? then you are as good at FF as anyone in the world.

Bingo. And there is much more skill involved in a year long league than in DFS. That's much more luck involved. You need to do no pre-season work to win at that.

[DaBeerz 88]

This year has been an anomoly for RB taken in the first round.

 

Other than Peterson, the rest of the RB have been busts for injuries, or various reasons. Mostly injuries though.

 

Bell, Charles, Lynch, Forte

 

Or they've just sucked:

 

Hill, Anderson, Lacy, Murray, McCoy

 

A lot of them have been hampered by nagging injuries.

 

WW RB have been productive, West, McFadden, D. Williams,

 

I still think you need to draft RB, but value can be found in early to mid rounds, blowing your first or second rounder on a RB is pretty risky. Guys like Forsett, Ivory, Ingram, Freeman are providing better ADP value.

[brotherbock 349]

So where is the "skill"?

The answer is 'Read what I've been writing.' why should I have to write everything I've already written because you can't keep up?

[brotherbock 349]

Correct... And technically this isn't a "skill"... The only "skill" in this is knowing how to read and comprehend...

What's the skill in poker?

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

What's the skill in poker?

Poker is considered gambling, which is the point of all this, right?

[tanatastic 2,061]

What's the skill in poker?

Irrelevant, different games (actually pretty similar, you plan what you think is the best move then it either works out or it doesnt lol). Look, MB said it best, FF is skill until kickoff, then its all luck. We can theorize til we are blue in the face, and we do annually. But come gametime we have a 90% bust rate for RBs early, the top qb sucks, half the best wrs are busts/injured and its all topsy turvy.

 

Talking about FF>playing FF.

[brotherbock 349]

Hes about to respond with some yarn about "well if you analyze the matchups and trrack snap counts and blah blah" wich is kewl in theory but never in practice. Matchups and such are complete fluff, every week they are half right and half wrong. Ill answer for him. The only skill involved is "not being an idiot". Know how to set a lineup? Know basic draft strategy and theory like positional scarcity? Know wich players are good and can make informed and timely waiver wire pickups? then you are as good at FF as anyone in the world.

 

I can pretend im better than that. I look 3 weeks ahead and plan my defense, trades, watch weather, pick up FA weeks in advance around my bye weeks. Makes me great right? I just lost to he worst team with the worst record in 2 dif leagues on fluke 80yd tds in garbage time and my guys couldnt ghvae a decent game vs the leagues worst defense.

Again, you are making a straw man argument here. My argument is not 'do the right things and you will win period.' Never has been what I'm saying. That there is skill involved is not incompatible with smart decisions and work resulting in a bad result.

 

Your argument amounts to nothing more than the observation that the season has not panned out like you predicted, and the conclusion that there is no skill involved. And every time I point to a place where paying attention, being smart, and doing research helps (the skill, which the other guy can't find), your answer is either "well, yeah, aside from that, where is the skill?" or "but that doesn't work".

 

And I'll simply dispute the claim that paying attention to things like snap count and offensive trends does not work. I think it does work. Not infallibly, which is all your "I drafted well and my team sucks" argument amounts to--evidence that skill doesn't *always* pay off.

 

Card counting, a skill, pays off in blackjack, a highly luck based game. It does, the evidence is there to see. That you lose a particular hand, or even that you lose all day one day, is not evidence that card counting 'does not work'.

 

So, let's stop pretending like I'm saying that skill can entirely counteract luck every time, and that skill being present will GUARANTEE you a winning season if you do things right. That's not what I'm saying, so please stop offering up your current losing season as evidence. Look instead at long term trends in your leagues.

 

If you were correct, then somehow, magically, four or five specific teams, across the fifteen years of my keeper league, always get GOOD luck, and two specific teams ALWAYS get bad luck. Unless you think luck is intelligent, that's not how it works.

[brotherbock 349]

Irrelevant, different games. Look, MB said it best, FF is skill until kickoff, then its all luck. We can theorize til we are blue in the face, and we do annually. But come gametime we have a 90% bust rate for RBs early, the top qb sucks, half the best wrs are busts/injured and its all topsy turvy.

 

Talking about FF>playing FF.

You missed the point of why I asked him that question, so it's not irrelevant. He seems to not think that things like studying trends and doing research are 'skills'. So I asked him that to find out what he means by 'skill'. So let's let him answer.

[brotherbock 349]

Poker is considered gambling, which is the point of all this, right?

Not the issue. Does poker have skill involved? Let's start there. If you say no, then either you don't know about poker, or you just mean something different when you talk about skill. Skill in poker isn't a physical skill, like catching a ball. It's mental skill--knowing things. . That, roughly speaking, is the same kind of skill involved in FF.

[tanatastic 2,061]

And I'll simply dispute the claim that paying attention to things like snap count and offensive trends does not work. I think it does work. Not infallibly, which is all your "I drafted well and my team sucks" argument amounts to--evidence that skill doesn't *always* pay off. I still say it doesnt. it appears as if it does, but it doesnt. Thats my opinion. The guy that didnt do research can beat you 10 out of 10 times or 0 out of 10.

 

Card counting, a skill, pays off in blackjack, a highly luck based game. It does, the evidence is there to see. That you lose a particular hand, or even that you lose all day one day, is not evidence that card counting 'does not work'. Yes card counting is a skill that gives you an improved edge, agreed. In FF that edge is only implied. In reality, nate washington scores 2 tds and you lose while your guy falls 1yd short of a win.

 

So, let's stop pretending like I'm saying that skill can entirely counteract luck every time, and that skill being present will GUARANTEE you a winning season if you do things right. That's not what I'm saying, so please stop offering up your current losing season as evidence. Look instead at long term trends in your leagues. Fair point, this goes back to Tacos vs everyone else tho. Guys who dont pay attention, start guys on bye, draft kickers etc vs guys who have at least passable knowledge of the game and know basic draft theory.

 

If you were correct, then somehow, magically, four or five specific teams, across the fifteen years of my keeper league, always get GOOD luck, and two specific teams ALWAYS get bad luck. Unless you think luck is intelligent, that's not how it works. I believe those 4 guys are simply luckier. Our champ last year didnt even know the scoring system and is 7-3 this year again. Clueless, but had a moderate knowledge of the game. Moderate. Those bottom guys are Tacos who make obviously bad picks. My stance is that you can be bad at FF but you cant be good. there are guys who are bad, tacos, and then there is everyone else.

[GobbleDog 816]

Isn't this similar to big all-in Hold em tournaments.?. The pros have a slight edge by making more sound decisions, but the luck factor evens the playing field.

[brotherbock 349]

 

 

And I'll simply dispute the claim that paying attention to things like snap count and offensive trends does not work. I think it does work. Not infallibly, which is all your "I drafted well and my team sucks" argument amounts to--evidence that skill doesn't *always* pay off. I still say it doesnt. it appears as if it does, but it doesnt. Thats my opinion. The guy that didnt do research can beat you 10 out of 10 times or 0 out of 10.

 

Card counting, a skill, pays off in blackjack, a highly luck based game. It does, the evidence is there to see. That you lose a particular hand, or even that you lose all day one day, is not evidence that card counting 'does not work'. Yes card counting is a skill that gives you an improved edge, agreed. In FF that edge is only implied. In reality, nate washington scores 2 tds and you lose while your guy falls 1yd short of a win.

 

So, let's stop pretending like I'm saying that skill can entirely counteract luck every time, and that skill being present will GUARANTEE you a winning season if you do things right. That's not what I'm saying, so please stop offering up your current losing season as evidence. Look instead at long term trends in your leagues. Fair point, this goes back to Tacos vs everyone else tho. Guys who dont pay attention, start guys on bye, draft kickers etc vs guys who have at least passable knowledge of the game and know basic draft theory.

 

If you were correct, then somehow, magically, four or five specific teams, across the fifteen years of my keeper league, always get GOOD luck, and two specific teams ALWAYS get bad luck. Unless you think luck is intelligent, that's not how it works. I believe those 4 guys are simply luckier. Our champ last year didnt even know the scoring system and is 7-3 this year again. Clueless, but had a moderate knowledge of the game. Moderate. Those bottom guys are Tacos who make obviously bad picks. My stance is that you can be bad at FF but you cant be good. there are guys who are bad, tacos, and then there is everyone else.

Gotcha, I've identified the problem. You see Luck as some sort of force, something that some people can 'have' and other people can't. I'm not making fun of you, a lot of people view chance that way.

 

I don't. When you say X is Luck, I read that as X is Pure Chance. And no person is Chancier than another. Chance evens out, a coin flipped will approach 50/50 very quickly.

 

If you think Luck is some kind of cosmic force that attaches to people, we don't have anything else to really talk about. Luck is not a thing, it's not out to get some people and out to help others. Luck is not an intelligent being, a consciousness. But if you think so, then we really are just talking past each other here.

 

The guy who does no research and starts players randomly will NOT beat ten seasons out of ten seasons someone who does good research. Not if you think luck is just chance. If you think Luck is some force of some kind...well, I suppose in that world, okay.

[brotherbock 349]

Isn't this similar to big all-in Hold em tournaments.?. The pros have a slight edge by making more sound decisions, but the luck factor evens the playing field.

No, it doesn't even out the field. A poker pro will beat me much more often than I will beat him. Will I win sometimes? Sure. But not regularly. Otherwise, yes. That's the point I'm getting at.

[posty 2,296]

What's the skill in poker?

That is all luck as well... Knowing the percentages of winning a hand with what you are dealt is more of memorization thing... I guess you can have a skill at remembering and calculating easier than others... But that would just drop it down to 99% luck then...

[tanatastic 2,061]

Gotcha, I've identified the problem. You see Luck as some sort of force, something that some people can 'have' and other people can't. I'm not making fun of you, a lot of people view chance that way.

 

I don't. When you say X is Luck, I read that as X is Pure Chance. And no person is Chancier than another. Chance evens out, a coin flipped will approach 50/50 very quickly.

 

If you think Luck is some kind of cosmic force that attaches to people, we don't have anything else to really talk about. Luck is not a thing, it's not out to get some people and out to help others. Luck is not an intelligent being, a consciousness. But if you think so, then we really are just talking past each other here.

 

The guy who does no research and starts players randomly will NOT beat ten seasons out of ten seasons someone who does good research. Not if you think luck is just chance. If you think Luck is some force of some kind...well, I suppose in that world, okay.

No, im saying just like I can win 10 coin flips in a row, someone can luck their way to 10 successful FF seasons in a row. As long as they have a baseline of reasonable knowledge. The basis of my argument is once you have achieved this baseline, youv gotten as good as you can get and nothing else can give you an edge. Once your not a Taco, your a pro.

[brotherbock 349]

That is all luck as well... Knowing the percentages of winning a hand with what you are dealt is more of memorization thing... I guess you can have a skill at remembering and calculating easier than others... But that would just drop it down to 99% luck then...

So if you sat down with a successful profession poker player and played some Hold 'em, you'd win 50% of the time?

 

Okaaay.

[posty 2,296]

Not the issue. Does poker have skill involved? Let's start there. If you say no, then either you don't know about poker, or you just mean something different when you talk about skill. Skill in poker isn't a physical skill, like catching a ball. It's mental skill--knowing things. . That, roughly speaking, is the same kind of skill involved in FF.

LOL @ mental skill...

 

Wow, just wow...

[brotherbock 349]

No, im saying just like I can win 10 coin flips in a row, someone can luck their way to 10 successful FF seasons in a row.

Sure. Can. But won't. It's possible that I could flip a coin a thousand times and have it land tails every single time. Possible. But that won't happen.

[tanatastic 2,061]

So if you sat down with a successful profession poker player and played some Hold 'em, you'd win 50% of the time?

 

Okaaay.

Long haul over many tournaments no. Some hands? sure, I could win all of them. 1 tournament? sure I could win easily. I caught a river, you lose. I caught a gut shot, you lose. Quads on the flop and I know how to checkraise? you lose.

[brotherbock 349]

LOL @ mental skill...

 

Wow, just wow...

So you think the word skill only applies to physical activities?

 

You know that's not how the word is used in English, right? Is playing Scrabble a skill that can be learned? Or just luck? You may need to learn how words are used.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Sure. Can. But won't. It's possible that I could flip a coin a thousand times and have it land tails every single time. Possible. But that won't happen.

Too extreme. Im equating FF skill to the skill required to play red/black roullette. "Well its been black 4 times in a row so ill bet red, my odds seem better. Doh, black again!"

[brotherbock 349]

Long haul over many tournaments no. Some hands? sure, I could win all of them. 1 tournament? sure I could win easily. I caught a river, you lose. I caught a gut shot, you lose. Quads on the flop and I know how to checkraise? you lose.

But of course poker is much, much more than just waiting to see what cards are flipped. How do I decide when to fold, raise, check, etc? Not just luck.

[posty 2,296]

So you think the word skill only applies to physical activities?

No

[brotherbock 349]

Too extreme. Im equating FF skill to the skill required to play red/black roullette. "Well its been black 4 times in a row so ill bet red, my odds seem better. Doh, black again!"

You miss my point again. The fact that something CAN happen is no evidence that it WILL happen. Your claim that someone who pays no attention CAN beat someone who does ten seasons out of ten is no proof that it actually WILL happen. That's my point.

[tanatastic 2,061]

But of course poker is much, much more than just waiting to see what cards are flipped. How do I decide when to fold, raise, check, etc? Not just luck.

Yes, thats a baseline of skills tho. Just like the FF baseline is "dont make dumb picks like kicker rnd 1, dont start guys on bye" etc.

[brotherbock 349]

No

Okay. Soooooo, if skills can be other than physical, what's left?

 

 

 

 

Mental.

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

What's the skill in poker?

 

Knowing and quickly calculating the odds of making your hand at any given moment based on the cards seen and in your hand.

 

Calculating the ROI on an action inclusive of the pot value to mitigate risk and impact reward.

 

Understanding where you are at the table relative to the other players in both chip count (or $) and physical position on the deal.

 

Maintaining composure and performing actions that lead to positive gains by leveraging any and all information obtained over the course of the current game in your decsion making process.

 

These are all skills most every winning poker player has developed over time. Sure they'll still lose, but due to the laws of standard deviation and by possessing and utilizing skills important to their game that their opponents may not possess they'll be on the winning side more often then not.

 

Also, you need to know when to hold em', and when to fold em'.

[tanatastic 2,061]

You miss my point again. The fact that something CAN happen is no evidence that it WILL happen. Your claim that someone who pays no attention CAN beat someone who does ten seasons out of ten is no proof that it actually WILL happen. That's my point.

i think the very fact that it CAN happen proves my point. Lets take a 100% skill game like chess. Me vs the best chess player 1000 matches. Pro will beat me 1000-0 and there is zero chance i take a single game. when skill is applied to a game, it removes chance. Nothing in FF can remove chance, it will always be there.

[brotherbock 349]

Yes, thats a baseline of skills tho. Just like the FF baseline is "dont make dumb picks like kicker rnd 1, dont start guys on bye" etc.

No, those aren't 'baseline skills' in poker. Paying attention to your own hand is baseline skills. Reading opponents is not. There are more skills to poker than just Don't Be Dumb. Same for FF.

 

Snap counts and the other examples do work. Over time, long term, not guaranteed game by game.

[brotherbock 349]

 

Knowing and quickly calculating the odds of making your hand at any given moment based on the cards seen and in your hand.

 

Calculating the ROI on an action inclusive of the pot value to mitigate risk and impact reward.

 

Understanding where you are at the table relative to the other players in both chip count (or $) and physical position on the deal.

 

Maintaining composure and performing actions that lead to positive gains by leveraging any and all information obtained over the course of the current game in your decsion making process.

 

These are all skills most every winning poker player has developed over time. Sure they'll still lose, but due to the laws of standard deviation and by possessing and utilizing skills important to their game that their opponents may not possess they'll be on the winning side more often then not.

 

Also, you need to know when to hold em', and when to fold em'.

Exactly.

[brotherbock 349]

i think the very fact that it CAN happen proves my point. Lets take a 100% skill game like chess. Me vs the best chess player 1000 matches. Pro will beat me 1000-0 and there is zero chance i take a single game. when skill is applied to a game, it removes chance. Nothing in FF can remove chance, it will always be there.

Skill involved in no way removes chance as a factor. Chance impacts baseball, the playing of football, the playing of musical instruments, MMA, and even chess. Yep. Someone with the skill to beat you still can lose to you due to any number of factors that are not skill based. They got distracted, they thought your piece was a row over from where it was. It happens.

 

Some activities involve both skill and chance.

[BunnysBastatrds 1,921]

I grabbed Brown with with my fifth pick in the first round and followed it with OBJ in the second. And got Deandre in the fourth. I'm having a quality year so far. Of all the RB that were drafted in the first round, only two are doing well. If you were ever going to go Zero RB strategy, this was the year.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Some activities involve both skill and chance.

Yes of course. Im just claiming FF is highly tilted towartds the luck side. Around 90%. The 10% being those baseline skills wich are drafting semi smartly, knowing the nfl and the players, making timely WW pickups. The fact that i regularly see tacos who dont even have those baseline skills still win in FF is further evidence to my case.

 

Someone can go into a draft with zero knowledge, just take the top name of an espn cheat sheet every round and set their lineup using projections and win it all. Easily. Very easily. They may need some WW smarts, but thats only one skill of the three baselines needed.