I am Now A Firm Believer in Zero RB Theory

[shutdown 40]

Top 12 RB's by average draft position performance in standard scoring format

 

1 Adrian Peterson MIN 217 13.6 Performed to expectations

2 Le'Veon Bell PIT 83 13.8 Performed before injury, handcuff available

3 Eddie Lacy GB 109 7.3 Bust

4 Marshawn Lynch SEA 66 9.4 Bust - no consistent handcuff

5 Jamaal Charles KC 75 15.0 Performed before injury, handcuff available

6 C.J. Anderson DEN 103 6.9 Bust

7 Jeremy Hill CIN 145 9.1 Did not meet expectations

8 Matt Forte CHI 159 12.2 Performed before injury, handcuff available

9 DeMarco Murray PHI 129 8.6 Bust

10 LeSean McCoy BUF 137 11.4 Performed outside of injury, handcuff shaky

11 Justin Forsett BAL 83 8.3 Bust

12 Lamar Miller MIA 173 10.8 Met expectations

 

In looking over the top 12 RB's per ADP, only Peterson and Lamar Miller performed as drafted when you consider health and points per game. 4 Others performed up to draft status while healthy (Bell, Charles, Forte McCoy). 1 - Jeremy Hill didn't perform to draft standards but was usable. And 5 were busts (Lacy, Lynch, Anderson, Murray, Forsett). So 50% are bust or substandard performers, 33% performed to their level of expectation but were derailed by injury (most were able to be handcuffed so they didn't kill you), and 17% Met their draft expectations and played every week.

 

The WR analysis is a bit different in that you can't handcuff. Top 12 WR's by ADP.

 

1 Antonio Brown PIT 237 14.8Performed to expectations

2 Dez Bryant DAL 54 6.0 Bust

3 Julio Jones ATL 225 14.1 Performed to expectations

4 Demaryius Thomas DEN 156 9.8 Did not meet expectations

5 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 216 14.4 Performed to expectations

6 Calvin Johnson DET 164 10.2 Did not meet expectations

7 A.J. Green CIN 179 11.2 Did not meet expectations

8 Randall Cobb GB 114 7.1 Bust

9 T.Y. Hilton IND 135 8.4 Bust

10 Brandin Cooks NO 162 10.1 Did not meet expectations

11 Alshon Jeffery CHI 101 11.2 Did not meet expectations

12 Jordan Matthews PHI 139 8.7 Bust

 

Only 3 performed to what you expected all year (Brown, Beckham, Jones). 4 didn't meet expectations for a variety of reasons (injury, did not meet projections or inconsistency) these were Thomas, Johnson, Green, Cooks, and Jeffery. 4 were outright busts. Jeffery was the oddball in that he produced when he played, but didn't play enough to help you.

 

The similarities are that 2 RB's and 3 WR's from this group performed at an elite level all year. This doesn't make chasing a RB or WR any more statistically likely to "hit". On the bust side, 4 WR's and 5 RB's were busts, so again it's hard to say that WR's were less likely to "bust"

 

The biggest difference I see is that RB's actually have more players who, on a PPG evaluation met their draft status than did WR's. WR's had more players that were "dissapointing" but not complete busts.

 

The thing I took away from this is how important the handcuff is if you are going to go RB early to protect your investment. If you didn't handcuff, I would argue that you throw Bell and Charles into the bust boat, making it more than 50/50 you pick a bust RB in the first round.

 

As most others stated it doesn't appear that a particular strategy aligned with success as you were about equally as likely to "hit" or "miss" on either WR or RB in the early rounds.

 

What I did notice is that the WR's in the next tier of ADP were very successful. Even moreso than the top tier. Marshall, Decker, Hopkins, Robinson, and Fitzgerald were all in that group.

 

So what I'll take away from this season is that if I go with an early round RB, I'm making sure I get the handcuff, which I haven't always done in the past.

[DaBeerz 88]

Top 12 RB's by average draft position performance in standard scoring format

 

1 Adrian Peterson MIN 217 13.6 Performed to expectations

2 Le'Veon Bell PIT 83 13.8 Performed before injury, handcuff available

3 Eddie Lacy GB 109 7.3 Bust

4 Marshawn Lynch SEA 66 9.4 Bust - no consistent handcuff

5 Jamaal Charles KC 75 15.0 Performed before injury, handcuff available

6 C.J. Anderson DEN 103 6.9 Bust

7 Jeremy Hill CIN 145 9.1 Did not meet expectations

8 Matt Forte CHI 159 12.2 Performed before injury, handcuff available

9 DeMarco Murray PHI 129 8.6 Bust

10 LeSean McCoy BUF 137 11.4 Performed outside of injury, handcuff shaky

11 Justin Forsett BAL 83 8.3 Bust

12 Lamar Miller MIA 173 10.8 Met expectations

 

In looking over the top 12 RB's per ADP, only Peterson and Lamar Miller performed as drafted when you consider health and points per game. 4 Others performed up to draft status while healthy (Bell, Charles, Forte McCoy). 1 - Jeremy Hill didn't perform to draft standards but was usable. And 5 were busts (Lacy, Lynch, Anderson, Murray, Forsett). So 50% are bust or substandard performers, 33% performed to their level of expectation but were derailed by injury (most were able to be handcuffed so they didn't kill you), and 17% Met their draft expectations and played every week.

 

The WR analysis is a bit different in that you can't handcuff. Top 12 WR's by ADP.

 

1 Antonio Brown PIT 237 14.8Performed to expectations

2 Dez Bryant DAL 54 6.0 Bust

3 Julio Jones ATL 225 14.1 Performed to expectations

4 Demaryius Thomas DEN 156 9.8 Did not meet expectations

5 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 216 14.4 Performed to expectations

6 Calvin Johnson DET 164 10.2 Did not meet expectations

7 A.J. Green CIN 179 11.2 Did not meet expectations

8 Randall Cobb GB 114 7.1 Bust

9 T.Y. Hilton IND 135 8.4 Bust

10 Brandin Cooks NO 162 10.1 Did not meet expectations

11 Alshon Jeffery CHI 101 11.2 Did not meet expectations

12 Jordan Matthews PHI 139 8.7 Bust

 

Only 3 performed to what you expected all year (Brown, Beckham, Jones). 4 didn't meet expectations for a variety of reasons (injury, did not meet projections or inconsistency) these were Thomas, Johnson, Green, Cooks, and Jeffery. 4 were outright busts.

 

The similarities are that 2 RB's and 3 WR's from this group performed at an elite level all year. This doesn't make chasing a RB or WR any more statistically likely to "hit". On the bust side, 4 WR's and 5 RB's were busts, so again it's hard to say that WR's were less likely to "bust"

 

The biggest difference I see is that RB's actually have more players who, on a PPG evaluation met their draft status than did WR's. WR's had more players that were "dissapointing" but not complete busts.

 

The thing I took away from this is how important the handcuff is if you are going to go RB early to protect your investment. If you didn't handcuff, I would argue that you throw Bell and Charles into the bust boat, making it more than 50/50 you pick a bust RB in the first round.

 

As most others stated it doesn't appear that a particular strategy aligned with success as you were about equally as likely to "hit" or "miss" on either WR or RB in the early rounds.

 

What I did notice is that the WR's in the next tier of ADP were very successful. Even moreso than the top tier. Marshall, Decker, Hopkins, Robinson, and Fitzgerald were all in that group.

 

So what I'll take away from this season is that if I go with an early round RB, I'm making sure I get the handcuff, which I haven't always done in the past.

 

NOICE. This is some useful analysis and well reasoned opinion. Thank you.

[DaBeerz 88]

The bolded is blatantly false and completely subjective. Theres 3 tiers of skilled player in every FF league at very most. Ill go over them now. This is hard fact, set in stone.

 

Top tier- Anyone who watches football, goes on message boards and knows advanced draft theory and how to implement them. Knows how to play the ww and make informed trades/starts/sits. 99% of FFtoday members.

 

Middle tier- Guys who kind of know some of that stuff but mostly just know who Tom Brady is and that Jerry Rice was a good player. Casual fan, might forget to set his lineup for thursday games and largely ignores the WW. Will pick up guys off FA every once in awhile.

 

Taco tier- They are just there because the draft is fun and thats the extent of their involvement. they think FF ends at the draft and you have to teach them how to set their lineup. Making roster moves is like algebra to them and they cant be bothered and dont know football enough even if they did.

 

Most money leagues are going to be made up of 7-8 top tier, 1-2 middle tier and 1-2 taco tier. If you are in a league with all top tier, its 100% luck. Everyone knows the game and its just a matter of who got players that werent busts and whos players score higher each week. There is no "one guy is more skilled". No, everyone knows their football and knows how to draft so its just friendly competition and let the best man win and have fun. No competetive edge to be found besides who was higher on the WW when the big injury happened, thats it. Your delusional if you think theres more to it than that. you can listen to all the podcasts and articles you want, you can be beaten every week. Maybe its 160-59 or maybe its 70-65, you can be beaten.

 

I liked my league when we had 1/2 middle and taco tier. It was way easier to work the WW and get into the playoffs no matter how badly you drafted. Now it's nearly impossible to steal someone off the WW, as we're all reading the same blogs, following the injury reports and handcuffs. You well better hit on most of your draft picks if you want a good chance at playoffs. Also injuries, they are a huge part of it as many great drafts have been spoiled by multiple injuries. I would say our league breakdown now is exacty as you outlined it.

[worm 34]

Interesting stats I just read:

 

1. Only seven players rushed for more than 1,000 yards this year. Just nine years ago, the 1,000-yard club included 23 runners and the lowest total in the past 15 years had been 13. That seven is the fewest number since 1991, when Emmitt Smith led the league with 1,563 yards and Barry Sanders, Thurman Thomas, Rodney Hampton, Earnest Byner, Gaston Green and Christian Okoye also hit the mark. (Oddly, that was the year Thomas won the MVP despite finishing third in rushing yards.) Peterson’s 1,485 was also the second-lowest winning total since ’90. Only LaDanian Tomlinson’s 1,474 yards in 2007 was lower.

 

2. The top 10 rushers in the NFL in 2015, along with their average preseason fantasy football draft rank on ESPN:

1) Adrian Peterson, No. 3

2) Doug Martin, No. 97

3) Todd Gurley, No. 60

4) Darren McFadden, No. 116

5) Chris Ivory, No. 64

6) Latavius Murray, No. 62

7) Devonta Freeman, No. 112

8)Jonathan Stewart, No. 51

9) Frank Gore, No. 48

10) DeAngelo Williams, No. 121

3. The amount of receivers in the 1,000 club: 26. That’s the most since at least 2002 (the last year for which I could find data).

 

I noticed this myself yesterday, but I think it's a little misleading. The previous 2 seasons (2014, 2013) there were 13 rushers over 1000 yards. The drop to 7 might seem steep, but if you factor in injuries (Charles, Bell, Foster, Lynch, Forte, Forsett - all projected as 1000+ yard rushers) it's pretty much status quo. The trend to look at is TEAM rushing. The number of 2000+ yard rushing teams the past 3 seasons: 12, 8, 6. This would correspond with the increase in 1000+ yard receivers.

[BunnysBastatrds 1,921]

Won the big money this year avoiding RB. To those that say it's a fluke.....Thanks for your contribution.

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

Won the big money this year avoiding RB. To those that say it's a fluke.....Thanks for your contribution.

I did it 3 times since 2008 in my 500 dollar league. I won twice. This year 3 teams did it(12 man league) I was unable to draft 3 High quality wr's. Couldn't even get two. It all depends If others are doing it. Heck, if even a few teams go RB/ WR it makes it hard. I made the mistake of trying to make it happen, taking wr's in the 2nd and 3rd. Blew up on me.

[jimaveli 119]

The 'get top 3-5 pick, let mags and Berry tell you which heavy carry td machine rb to take, half-tail the rest of the draft and enjoy your advantage' plan doesn't necessarily work anymore.

 

Luck comes in huge from tds and timing. Ie: if a great free agent is available right at the time where you're looking for one because of injuries, bye weeks, or unloading a player you're losing faith in, you could win huge on ww.

 

Lots of the other stuff can be ballpark-predicted via watching the games, understanding the math of your league (so important). Also, you can't be a slave to previous weeks' (or years') stats or stigmas...unless it has been proven over a significant amount of time. Ie: Drew Brees at home at night is an institution.

[McBain 13]

 

So what I'll take away from this season is that if I go with an early round RB, I'm making sure I get the handcuff, which I haven't always done in the past.

 

Drafting the right handcuff isn't easy either.

 

Adrian Peterson - McKinnon so easy to pick up late rounds

2 Le'Veon Bell - was it known Dwill was backup at draft time?

3 Eddie Lacy - Starks easy to draft late rounds

4 Marshawn Lynch - you would have picked up Turbin or Cmike and wasted a draft pick

5 Jamaal Charles KC - most would have drafted Knile Davis and cried later

6 C.J. Anderson - Hillman probably drafted higher than late rounds. Even if you had him, wasn't winning you games

7 Jeremy Hill CIN - Bernard doesn't last to late rounds

8 Matt Forte CHI - not sure if Langford was clear cut back up at draft time.

9 DeMarco Murray PHI - Mathews might have gone earlier than late rounds

10 LeSean McCoy - not sure anyone knew who Karlos Williams was during draft

11 Justin Forsett BAL - would have drafted Taliaferro instead of Buck Allen

12 Lamar Miller - Ayagi was not available beginning of season

[DaBeerz 88]

 

Drafting the right handcuff isn't easy either.

 

Adrian Peterson - McKinnon so easy to pick up late rounds

2 Le'Veon Bell - was it known Dwill was backup at draft time?

3 Eddie Lacy - Starks easy to draft late rounds

4 Marshawn Lynch - you would have picked up Turbin or Cmike and wasted a draft pick

5 Jamaal Charles KC - most would have drafted Knile Davis and cried later

6 C.J. Anderson - Hillman probably drafted higher than late rounds. Even if you had him, wasn't winning you games

7 Jeremy Hill CIN - Bernard doesn't last to late rounds

8 Matt Forte CHI - not sure if Langford was clear cut back up at draft time.

9 DeMarco Murray PHI - Mathews might have gone earlier than late rounds

10 LeSean McCoy - not sure anyone knew who Karlos Williams was during draft

11 Justin Forsett BAL - would have drafted Taliaferro instead of Buck Allen

12 Lamar Miller - Ayagi was not available beginning of season

 

Bernard has higher value than Hill in PPR leagues too.

 

I like your summary, handcuffs are difficult to hit as well!

[tanatastic 2,061]

 

Drafting the right handcuff isn't easy either.

 

2 Le'Veon Bell - was it known Dwill was backup at draft time?

4 Marshawn Lynch - you would have picked up Turbin or Cmike and wasted a draft pick

2. Yes we did know it was DWill and he was even being highly targeted to fill in for the first 2 weeks.

4. Actually it was worse, people had Fred Jackson as the guy they thought they were being sneaky by drafting. Rawls who?

 

I agree, cuffs are getting to be as hard to predict as starters.

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

 

Drafting the right handcuff isn't easy either.

Adrian Peterson - McKinnon so easy to pick up late rounds

2 Le'Veon Bell - was it known Dwill was backup at draft time?

3 Eddie Lacy - Starks easy to draft late rounds

4 Marshawn Lynch - you would have picked up Turbin or Cmike and wasted a draft pick

5 Jamaal Charles KC - most would have drafted Knile Davis and cried later

6 C.J. Anderson - Hillman probably drafted higher than late rounds. Even if you had him, wasn't winning you games

7 Jeremy Hill CIN - Bernard doesn't last to late rounds

8 Matt Forte CHI - not sure if Langford was clear cut back up at draft time.

9 DeMarco Murray PHI - Mathews might have gone earlier than late rounds

10 LeSean McCoy - not sure anyone knew who Karlos Williams was during draft

11 Justin Forsett BAL - would have drafted Taliaferro instead of Buck Allen

12 Lamar Miller - Ayagi was not available beginning of season

Well done

[redsrback 30]

I think people take the handcuffing way to far. Some players you know you better handcuff just because there injury prone. As for me I would rather burn a third QB or TE I can start with a good match-up. And from what ive seen people don't hold there handcuffs very long trying to make it through the season.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I think people take the handcuffing way to far. Some players you know you better handcuff just because there injury prone. As for me I would rather burn a third QB or TE I can start with a good match-up. And from what ive seen people don't hold there handcuffs very long trying to make it through the season.

I dont think many people take handcuffing too far. I think people have actually done less handcuffing this year. I do agree that people ditch the backups early, but a lot of that is due to small benches. I was right on David Johnson. I held him all year in every league except for one dynasty. I was also wrong on Tevin Coleman. I held him in every league besides one dynasty and he didnt do a thing for me.

[redsrback 30]

Bench size don't matter much either. Before the year with a small bench you could pick up at QB in Blake Bortles and Hoyer from FA. WR you could find a dozen Cecil Shorts, Eddie Royals in good match-ups. Same goes for TEs you could dump your draft day pick for a better option. Large benchs make you draft these people and also make you consider a second defense or a second kicker. Not to mention the blocking you can do to the guy who thinks he is safe because everyone else has a TE or QB when 1 obvious choice left. Small bench means I can get away with 1 QB, 1 TE, 1 Kicker, 1 Defense 1 bench receiver and you use the rest of my picks on all RBs in leagues you have weekly pick-ups.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Bench size don't matter much either. Before the year with a small bench you could pick up at QB in Blake Bortles and Hoyer from FA. WR you could find a dozen Cecil Shorts, Eddie Royals in good match-ups. Same goes for TEs you could dump your draft day pick for a better option. Large benchs make you draft these people and also make you consider a second defense or a second kicker. Not to mention the blocking you can do to the guy who thinks he is safe because everyone else has a TE or QB when 1 obvious choice left. Small bench means I can get away with 1 QB, 1 TE, 1 Kicker, 1 Defense 1 bench receiver and you use the rest of my picks on all RBs in leagues you have weekly pick-ups.

You didnt pay attention then. Guys were constantly asking if they should drop guys like David Johnson because of small benches. Their teams were in trouble and they needed someone who could contribute. Now when someone like johnson becomes the starter and he is on waivers, usually only a top priority will net him. A bigger bench could afford a borderline playoff team to hold onto that type of asset. Its common sense really...

[tanatastic 2,061]

Im starting to think next year will be the best year to go RB/RB in a long time if the majority steer away. ill take DJohnson and Jamaal Charles with my first 2 picks, thanks. Finding next years Deckers, Baldwins and the Marshalls who slip will be the key at wr, not taking them with your first 3 picks.

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

Where do Lamar Miller or Doug Martin go if one signs with Dallas? Dallas has to be looking for an upgrade at RB

[jimaveli 119]

5th rb off the board / middle-ish of 2nd. They'd generally go after whoever gets listed as the 3-5 'obvious' guys. Right now, that 'obvious top rb' tag is only for Gurley and AP to me. But someone else will get added depending on how the offseason shakes out. Bell seems like the one who'll get added as soon as he's shown running on a treadmill and looking like he's eaten a few sensible dinners.

 

I just hope Doug doesn't end up 'taking the money' to go somewhere that is somehow more terrible than Tampa. I'm hoping for Dallas, Carolina, or some other place where he can get used!

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

You may see D Johnson get a huge boost with a good playoff

[weepaws 2,461]

I dont think many people take handcuffing too far. I think people have actually done less handcuffing this year. I do agree that people ditch the backups early, but a lot of that is due to small benches. I was right on David Johnson. I held him all year in every league except for one dynasty. I was also wrong on Tevin Coleman. I held him in every league besides one dynasty and he didnt do a thing for me.

I was wrong about Coleman also , during the season I kept telling everyone to hold him and he busted .

[weepaws 2,461]

Im starting to think next year will be the best year to go RB/RB in a long time if the majority steer away. ill take DJohnson and Jamaal Charles with my first 2 picks, thanks. Finding next years Deckers, Baldwins and the Marshalls who slip will be the key at wr, not taking them with your first 3 picks.

Right , sneaky move but I can see rolling in that direction .

[weepaws 2,461]

Where do Lamar Miller or Doug Martin go if one signs with Dallas? Dallas has to be looking for an upgrade at RB

Now Doug Martin with the Cowboys would very interesting .

[redsrback 30]

You didnt pay attention then. Guys were constantly asking if they should drop guys like David Johnson because of small benches. Their teams were in trouble and they needed someone who could contribute. Now when someone like johnson becomes the starter and he is on waivers, usually only a top priority will net him. A bigger bench could afford a borderline playoff team to hold onto that type of asset. Its common sense really...

You are aware that David Johnson wasn't even a thought to anybody but you till week 13? Holding a guy 13 weeks that is averaging 3 rushes and 1 reception with 10 others you could pick up weeks 1-12 on FA that are spelling the starter and getting a dozen carries. I don't know what COMMON SENSE is to you but most leagues have there Super bowl week 16 in fear of having line-ups with players sitting week 17. I am okay with you having him on your bench because injuries dictated things, but anyone who asked if they should dump David Johnson up to week 12 would of got slaughtered based on the facts we had.

[petekrum 20]

Now Doug Martin with the Cowboys would very interesting .

Martin on the Cowboys is a top 3 RB.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

You are aware that David Johnson wasn't even a thought to anybody but you till week 13? Holding a guy 13 weeks that is averaging 3 rushes and 1 reception with 10 others you could pick up weeks 1-12 on FA that are spelling the starter and getting a dozen carries. I don't know what COMMON SENSE is to you but most leagues have there Super bowl week 16 in fear of having line-ups with players sitting week 17. I am okay with you having him on your bench because injuries dictated things, but anyone who asked if they should dump David Johnson up to week 12 would of got slaughtered based on the facts we had.

I was talking about a large bench affording someone to hold onto a player like Djohns all year knowing if he gets a lot of touches he will be money. It doesnt have to be djohns, just someone in a similar situation. By holding that person you guarantee no one else can pick him up and beat you with him, even if it takes until week 13. So unless your league allows redsrback to always pickup who he wants before anyone can, my point is valid and its common sense.

[weepaws 2,461]

Martin on the Cowboys is a top 3 RB.

No I would disagree that he would be in my top three . .

[petekrum 20]

No I would disagree that he would be in my top three . .

He was third this year playing on a worse offense behind a vastly inferior line, so it's certainly a possibility especially given the watered down RB landscape.