Lessons for 2016

[Magnificent Bastard 191]

The thing I despise most about fantasy football is WW. This year most champions are WW dominators.

 

It is like playing cards with the hands dealt and someone gets to discard a card and add a joker.

 

After 20 years of FFOOTBALL, I am starting to lose my desire to play as it is so different and not as fun.

 

I learned, I may need to find a new hobby.....

What kind of WW process do you use? We went to a bidding process with 1k each and it cut down on the easy gifts guys get for sucking.

[PJ_Abyss 0]

What kind of WW process do you use? We went to a bidding process with 1k each and it cut down on the easy gifts guys get for sucking.

I've never done a bidding waiver system before. Is it better than your standard waiver wire process?

[Magnificent Bastard 191]

I've never done a bidding waiver system before. Is it better than your standard waiver wire process?

Definetly. Game changer. It's like having a mini draft every week. Some guys blow their budget early, some don't.

[PJ_Abyss 0]

Definetly. Game changer. It's like having a mini draft every week. Some guys blow their budget early, some don't.

That sounds legit. I might have to try and get in a league like that

[jimaveli 119]

The longer you play, the more frustrating it can be depending on how you approach it. Moreso, a lagging league can hurt you bigtime too. And yep..there's a big lack of 'security' from the draft or even from week to week with most guys. And sometimes, you just kinda get screwed. Fantasy football.

 

My 'main' league has about 6 solid owners, 1 super lucky guy who drafts badly in terms of reaching early and getting 'lost' halfway through, and 3 cats who are somewhat brutal post-draft and will all but lay down their season if one major guy on their team rolls an ankle. They just don't follow football enough to make good calls during the season. Overall, it's still above average since folks will set some kind of lineup. And there's rarely any 'eating zeroes' or dramatic collusion type of things. But just a little lagging from a few owners can mess up the flow of a league. And I'm always pushing for 'smarter' scoring and rules. If they were my only source of fantasy involvement, I'd probably quit. But I try a stray league every year and I do some daily to mix it up.

 

I can live with not winning every year as long as I don't get totally jacked out of a season via injuries or 'the points against' beat down. I've had a few years with both.

[jrbdmb 28]

This year the draft meant next to nothing. The waiver wire won.

Bingo. My QB (Romo), RB1 (Le'Veon), and WR1 (Cobb) all disappointed. I did get lucky with Hopkins and Marshall, but I won my league due to the WW.

[jrbdmb 28]

What kind of WW process do you use? We went to a bidding process with 1k each and it cut down on the easy gifts guys get for sucking.

A few years ago we switched from a "worst record first" WW ordered to a rolling WW (does not reset). I think this is much better, but some think the worst teams should get a "break." Opinions differ, I guess.

[gray wolfe 3]

For next year, I'll be cancelling my Sirius subscription. I drive a lot for my job, and usually out of boredom I listen to the Fantasy station. Those fockers have swayed me in the wrong direction countless times this year. Then throw in the dorks on the fantasy TV shows, it's just way too much. I try my best to follow my gut, but listening and watching all that crap can influence your opinions.

 

Feel the same way about ESPN and the Fox crew. Nothing is more useless than watching the espn show in general and watching wastes like their Waiver Wired Segments consistently mentioning a top 10 of guys that were picked up or drafted in your league months earlier and have never been close to available since on anybody's waiver wire. Last year some guy on the Fox Crew at the end of their season preview show mentioned Lev Bell as his bust of the year citing terrible GBYPA numbers, a co-anchor said his numbers were wrong, I didn't draft Bell on any teams save one due to slotting rather than the player, and sure enough that proved to be the worst call of the year in '14.

 

I like the podcasts at footballguys, dlf, even harris (who I seem to disagree on everything with), but considering the single biggest take of anyone in the offseason among those podcasts (other than maybe Waldman) was that, "David Johnson is afraid of contact and sucks," and "Zero RB Theory doesn't work," I've taken to just keeping my own council and only using their insights to accent my own. I'd rather lose w/my own poor decisions and analysis to blame, than somebody else's.

 

Only consistent advice that actually did prove totally accurate: Zero QB strategy, and to a lesser extent waiting on TE's, I landed Dalton on a ton of teams betting that the weapons would make him a top 8 guy (Carson on one doing the same thing), and ditto Eifert based on his productivity and draft pedigree, but my horrible RB's still sabotaged all but one of my teams .

[Mr Neil 63]

The thing I despise most about fantasy football is WW. This year most champions are WW dominators.

 

It is like playing cards with the hands dealt and someone gets to discard a card and add a joker.

 

After 20 years of FFOOTBALL, I am starting to lose my desire to play as it is so different and not as fun.

 

I learned, I may need to find a new hobby.....

If you are in a keeper league with a short bench it' makes it almost like DFS Lite bc I played matchups with people from off waivers for QB this year and my flex by streaming most often then not weeks. Just need two to three mid range studs and then churn the rest of the spots.

[gray wolfe 3]

Is there anyone here still feeling good about taking a qb early?

 

You've heard the zero QB studies right? All the stats and research seems to back up the value on ignoring QB entirely until double digit rounds, some even suggest just waiver wire streaming, I actually won my only league this year doing just that (my other leagues were a mess due to dynasty strategy, or horrible rb valuations, I nailed the particular surprise rb's who'd be bad across the board except for a few, and those few were uniformally on nearly all my squads (Miller, Gore, CJ on 2 etc), and am a firm believer, the research seems to back the idea that turnover in the QB top 10-12 is fairly heavy beyond the big 5, and more importantly, the difference on a game per game basis, especially if you take out a players high and low, between a QB 1 or 2, and particularly a QB 3-5, and a QB 13-18 is minute. This year i eschewed QB's until double digit rounds and nailed my guys hitting on Brady pre-trial decision, Dalton, and Palmer, and missing badly on Tannehill's supposed breakout year. If not for terrible decision making at RB, and losing out on the waiver wire for the key RB adds, I probably would have had a lot of success.

 

If there's one take away I had this year, that I don't believe is random seasonal chance/white noise, it's in the zero QB strategy. I will never draft a QB again until double digit rounds, period. Just not doing it. More than 2/3's of the league's QB's will be available after round 9, and speculating on them more often than not will result in you landing at worst, a league average QB or better which is all you need if you can do well enough with RB's, WR's and your TE's. I may have only won one title with that strategy this year, but it also clearly is backed by the evidence and research. Drafting QB's just doesn't make sense period, no matter how much more comfortable it may make you to plug in your Rodgers/Luck/Brees/Ben Roth/Cam each week and forget about a QB all season long except when you need your bye fill in.

[gray wolfe 3]

The longer you play, the more frustrating it can be depending on how you approach it. Moreso, a lagging league can hurt you bigtime too. And yep..there's a big lack of 'security' from the draft or even from week to week with most guys. And sometimes, you just kinda get screwed. Fantasy football.

 

My 'main' league has about 6 solid owners, 1 super lucky guy who drafts badly in terms of reaching early and getting 'lost' halfway through, and 3 cats who are somewhat brutal post-draft and will all but lay down their season if one major guy on their team rolls an ankle. They just don't follow football enough to make good calls during the season. Overall, it's still above average since folks will set some kind of lineup. And there's rarely any 'eating zeroes' or dramatic collusion type of things. But just a little lagging from a few owners can mess up the flow of a league. And I'm always pushing for 'smarter' scoring and rules. If they were my only source of fantasy involvement, I'd probably quit. But I try a stray league every year and I do some daily to mix it up.

 

I can live with not winning every year as long as I don't get totally jacked out of a season via injuries or 'the points against' beat down. I've had a few years with both.

 

This past year I took over an orphan keeper squad because it had A. Foster, Jeffrey, Forsett, and Ellington well, you don't have to guess how that went, and even w/all the bad luck, I was 2nd in scoring, but 1-6 at the trade deadline due to that deadly 12th in points scored against stat (200 more against than anyone else at the time), ended up dealing Jeffrey, Forsett and Moncrief to an owner for Lacy, and Charles at the deadline, sucked up the miserable 2-12 finish, but have a RB stable built around my pick of 3 among Gurley, Lacy, Charles, Miller, (and Maclin if I feel like a WR). That's why I'm shifting more towards Dynasty and Keeper, seems more fun, and there's also a lot more to do when a season goes wrong. You can still jockey for a higher pick, or trade vets for youngsters, picks, injured guys etc.

[jimaveli 119]

I haven't come up with a situation to help me jump into a dynasty or keeper league. I'd like to start from scratch in one if I could instead of inheriting a team. Maybe a league with a few keepers and decent keeper rules wouldn't be too bad.

[jimaveli 119]

Yep. I think zqb can work if you're fortunate/active. I'm on the verge of that, but I tend to want a qb in the 8th or 9th round just to be sure that I get my 'mid to late' guy(s) of choice. But it just depends on how the draft is going and who has what at the time. As long as I get a guy who will likely be in the top half of starters in the league most weeks, im good.

 

I'm also a serial qb blocker...aka I will roster a qb just to force trade action if someone is too comfortable/lazy with their qb streaming scheme. I view it in higher regard than laying on someone else's handcuff rb or hoarding wrs...slightly.

 

My main league has limited roster moves for the season so I can't reasonably aim to stream with regularity and still be active in the weekly ww sweepstakes. In unlimited move leagues, streaming qb is fine by me. An active/lucky person could somewhat easily find a top 5 or 6 qb to roll with most weeks.

 

 

You've heard the zero QB studies right? All the stats and research seems to back up the value on ignoring QB entirely until double digit rounds, some even suggest just waiver wire streaming, I actually won my only league this year doing just that (my other leagues were a mess due to dynasty strategy, or horrible rb valuations, I nailed the particular surprise rb's who'd be bad across the board except for a few, and those few were uniformally on nearly all my squads (Miller, Gore, CJ on 2 etc), and am a firm believer, the research seems to back the idea that turnover in the QB top 10-12 is fairly heavy beyond the big 5, and more importantly, the difference on a game per game basis, especially if you take out a players high and low, between a QB 1 or 2, and particularly a QB 3-5, and a QB 13-18 is minute. This year i eschewed QB's until double digit rounds and nailed my guys hitting on Brady pre-trial decision, Dalton, and Palmer, and missing badly on Tannehill's supposed breakout year. If not for terrible decision making at RB, and losing out on the waiver wire for the key RB adds, I probably would have had a lot of success.

 

If there's one take away I had this year, that I don't believe is random seasonal chance/white noise, it's in the zero QB strategy. I will never draft a QB again until double digit rounds, period. Just not doing it. More than 2/3's of the league's QB's will be available after round 9, and speculating on them more often than not will result in you landing at worst, a league average QB or better which is all you need if you can do well enough with RB's, WR's and your TE's. I may have only won one title with that strategy this year, but it also clearly is backed by the evidence and research. Drafting QB's just doesn't make sense period, no matter how much more comfortable it may make you to plug in your Rodgers/Luck/Brees/Ben Roth/Cam each week and forget about a QB all season long except when you need your bye fill in.

[gray wolfe 3]

I won't quibble w/getting your QB at the 8/9 turn or thereabouts. As long as you leave your top 7 picks to RB's and WR's you should be fairly well built, but that 8/9 round QB pick has to have legit upside, otherwise it strikes me as a bit foolish. If you're basically pulling the trigger on one of those guys who is nearly always 12th-17th like Eli or even worse, an Alex Smith type, I don't think it makes sense, if you're stealing Brady because the NFL was idiotic and will inevitably lose in that court action, more power to you, or if you're targeting that guy that's fallen but has upside (Rivers until a mountain of WR/TE/OL injuries completely derailed what was a promising season, Tannehill, betting on Landry/Parker/Cameron/Sims/Miller/Ajayi leading to a productive offense (turned out wrong, but the reasoning was sound, and when your reasoning is sound, you'll win the roll of the dice more often than the guy that just got lucky, and whose reasoning is anything but sound).

 

Basically to me, if you're rolling the dice on an 8/9 guy, it has to be justified by situation and talent. For example even though Ryan stunk this year, betting on him being productive in that dome, w/those weapons was a reasonable choice so long as you didn't look too closely at White's age and sluggish route running, the ghastly OL, Hankerson's dropsy and injury issues, and then just bad luck with Tevin Coleman going down, Brady also did, but don't reach at 8/9 just to get a QB, I'm cool with pulling the trigger around there (or preferabbly between the 9th-11th round which seems to be the sweet spot for value QB's like Rivers, Romo, Ryan, and Brady this year, and typically in any year, you just have to avoid the landmines (Tannehill, Bridgewater etc) and indeed the key seems to be to not wait so long that you fall entirely off the QB cliff, and are stuck looking at '16's equivalent of Flacco/Marriota/Alex Smith/Foles/Bridgewater/Hoyer/ etc, if you wait so long you're forced to pick a guy that you've got ranked 25th, you might as well pass entirely and just go through the waiver wire after the draft to find your guy while using your picks to add speculative upside depth to the back end of your roster.

[jimaveli 119]

Exactly. Same page. Getting Brees or Ben in the 9th > getting stuck with Teddy Jam or Tuck and run Tanny in the 12th. I don't need Joique Bell that much more than Terrence Williams.

 

I love that folks are waiting on qb because I think I can get it 'more right' than they can since I watch a decent amount of football. So I think I 'know' that Matt Ryan kinda sucked when he had a pro bowl roster around him while Brees and Brady can usually make lemonade with almost anyone once they have a month with them.

 

I'll put this here: I do not like having Tom Brady on my team. I don't!

 

Of course, he has a way of ending up with a gang of stats, tds and the resulting fantasy points at the end of the year. And he'll be qb 3-7. And he'll alternate years of being drafted too high or too low. This past year was a low one. Next year, some goofball will take him in the 3rd and be shocked when he sucks for roughly 4 weeks through the season.

 

And that's just it...he's prone to somewhat random sub-top 15 qb games.

 

You never know when the 224 yard, 1 td game is coming. It could be once the injuries stack up and they play the jets on a week where the jets need a win more than they do. Or it could be when they're toying around with an afc south team and running the ball for 2 hours just to get out of there healthy. But those afc south games are the same ones where he could get the hallmark 376 yard, 4 td + 1 random qb sneak td game while throwing to absurdly questionable weapons. You just don't know. Weather doesn't matter either.

 

With Brees and Ben, they are kinda weird/shaky on the road. You can take it to the bank. They might 'end up' with some stats, but it usually takes a rando or garbage time long td or two. So, you could easily roll with them for all home games and stream Qb for their road games and put together a helluva qb score for yourself. Aka that's what I'm doing next year with whichever one has the lowest adp. To me, Brees is everything folks want from Matt Ryan now that his adp is dropping.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,264]

I am liking the qb early theory even better than this year. Reason being: we didnt have any qbs have one of those epic years. The reason people have won with dominant qbs in the past is because theres always a few throwing for 45+ tds it seems which gives a massive advantage. Not having it happen this year made everyone believe that top tier qbs are a dime a dozen. They arent, and whoever lands that big qb next year when the top passing numbers are more normal, everyone will wish they had that qb.

[jimaveli 119]

The issue with taking one early next year and most years is this: who is the 'win a league by himself'-level qb who will make it easier to get away with burning a 1st or 2nd round pick?

[Frozenbeernuts 2,264]

The issue with taking one early next year and most years is this: who is the 'win a league by himself'-level qb who will make it easier to get away with burning a 1st or 2nd round pick?

Luck or rodgers

[jimaveli 119]

Luck was somewhat terrible BEFORE he got hurt. And his draft stock will drop next year unless Chip comes to town and/or he looks great in camp/preseason. The hate will likely go too far and make him a good speculative add...maybe 6th round-ish. Before his injury, he was basically Matt Stafford after his 40-td year...he was playing badly, throwing picks, and getting hit too much.

 

Rodgers was 'regular' enough sans Jordy that I'd be surprised to see him go in the first couple rounds next year. Again, he'll make for a good 'okay, okay...give me Rodgers' type of pick in the 4th round. But I'd still consider that 'taking the cheese' unless green bay's road schedule is amazing and they add some stuff in addition to getting Jordy back.

 

Next year's 'take the cheese' early qbs are pretty much gonna be Russell and Cam, right? After that, I could see brady, Ben, and Rodgers going by the end of the 4th. Then, a big ole waiting game before Bortles, Cahhh, Eli, maybe even Fitz and that group comes off the board.

[DrG 103]

Variance has increased the last few years. However the situation mentioned above where someone reinstalled Jordan Matthews into his starting lineup because he was going back into the slot shows that the right knowledge can trump luck

[DrG 103]

Variance has increased the last few years. However the situation mentioned above where someone reinstalled Jordan Matthews into his starting lineup because he was going back into the slot shows that the right knowledge can trump luck

[minuteofdecay 5]

The thing I despise most about fantasy football is WW. This year most champions are WW dominators.

 

It is like playing cards with the hands dealt and someone gets to discard a card and add a joker.

 

After 20 years of FFOOTBALL, I am starting to lose my desire to play as it is so different and not as fun.

 

I learned, I may need to find a new hobby.....

change your league up.

I'm in a dynasty league no waivers draft in may right after nfl draft. I tend to think ww is an easy man's approach to ff. This league if u don't draft well you are a donater.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,264]

change your league up.

I'm in a dynasty league no waivers draft in may right after nfl draft. I tend to think ww is an easy man's approach to ff. This league if u don't draft well you are a donater.

In a dynasty league? Thats fun?? To each their own. If you find it fun then thats all that matters, but holy crap i dont know how there would be any teams left to field a starting lineup. Have you tried this league yet, or are you trying it for thr first time?

 

All your league really rewards is luck. I think it takes more skill to work the wwm it sounds almost lazy to take the approach of your league.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,264]

The thing I despise most about fantasy football is WW. This year most champions are WW dominators.

 

It is like playing cards with the hands dealt and someone gets to discard a card and add a joker.

 

After 20 years of FFOOTBALL, I am starting to lose my desire to play as it is so different and not as fun.

 

I learned, I may need to find a new hobby.....

Have you tried limited waiver moves? We have 7 moves to use all year in one league, and that included kickers (though we do use team kickers just so someone always has one, unless they are out of moves and their kicker has a bye). The draft is much more important.

[petekrum 20]

My thought for 2016 is I don't give two shiits who I have for backs......I'm loading up on WRs.

A reinvent the wheel strategy that was workable when only one or two guys in a league were doing it that's gonna turn into a dumpster fire when everyone in the league tries to employ it. Gonna be tough grabbing those ww steals at RB when EVERYONE is looking for them.

[petekrum 20]

Blake Bortles COULD be this year's Nick Foles.

No, he couldn't.

[jimaveli 119]

So Bortles is a stable haven for fantasy points who can be relied on for years to come?

[petekrum 20]

Never again will I take a QB in round 1

A lesson everyone should learn.

[petekrum 20]

So Bortles is a stable haven for fantasy points who can be relied on for years to come?

You shouldn't even have to ask. Look at his improvement just this past year. They have four talented young WRs, a young talented TE, and a young talented RB with a very nice backup. Bortles barring injury will be a top 10 fantasy producer for the next decade.

[tanatastic 2,062]

There goes Jordan Matthews capping off a good 2nd half to make everyone think he had a good season this year. Scored in 5/6 last games. Third year next season, take advantage if he slips, I'm drinking the kool aid yet again.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,264]

There goes Jordan Matthews capping off a good 2nd half to make everyone think he had a good season this year. Scored in 5/6 last games. Third year next season, take advantage if he slips, I'm drinking the kool aid yet again.

In my dynasty league that i won i have jordan matthews. I think after week 9 i didnt start him once. If he can become the receiver i hoped for then it will be like finding another good receiver off the WW. I also have him in another dynasty where my team went from preseason favorite to an absolute dumpster fire.

[svtballa 8]

Sammy Watkins will be great next year. Especially at his ADP.

 

 

Calvin Johnson. He will slide in drafts. 85/1200/9 this year. I will Glady take him as my #2 WR. and in some cases if picking at the end of round 1 and you go WR/WR you might be able to grab him as your #3 WR. I would have a smile from ear to ear

[jimaveli 119]

If Buffalo is gonna continue this crazy stuff like throwing the ball to their talented 1st round wr, I agree heavily on Watkins...especially if he can be a 4-6 rounder.

[jimaveli 119]

See Bortles today for what his floor can be. Maybe he's not as horrendous as Foles to the eye but still. Sometimes he just plain ole doesn't play well. And the jags don't see a lot of red zone action so he needs a bomb or two to make his days. And he's an interception-throwing machine. It's just a matter of whether the defense catches the bad passes. That and can he rescue his bad games with big plays and/or garbage time. He's kinda like the new Eli.

[petekrum 20]

See Bortles today for what his floor can be. Maybe he's not as horrendous as Foles to the eye but still. Sometimes he just plain ole doesn't play well. And the jags don't see a lot of red zone action so he needs a bomb or two to make his days. And he's an interception-throwing machine. It's just a matter of whether the defense catches the bad passes. That and can he rescue his bad games with big plays and/or garbage time. He's kinda like the new Eli.

And yet here he sits in only his second year as a top five fantasy QB. The picks will decrease as he matures as they do with most QBs. He's already a better fantasy QB than Eli will ever be.

[Quickolas1 80]

I love how you kids aren't taking any RBs, QBs or TEs (sans Gronk) early and then turn around and think you'll get Megatron as your #3 WR or Sammy Watkins will last until the 4th-6th round or want no part of Jordan Matthews.

 

(You'll all be back here in August asking if you should take some RB-X or some WR-Y in round 1.)

[Magnificent Bastard 191]

A reinvent the wheel strategy that was workable when only one or two guys in a league were doing it that's gonna turn into a dumpster fire when everyone in the league tries to employ it. Gonna be tough grabbing those ww steals at RB when EVERYONE is looking for them.

Bullseye.

[jimaveli 119]

If I don't get a guy I'm confident can finish as a top 5 rb, I'm taking a stable-floor + high ceiling wr with my first ppr league pick....like I have for many of the last years. It started for me with Andre Johnson 6 or 7 years back. I didn't put a snappy name to it..I just did it cuz I thought it made sense based on my prep.

 

In a 10-teamer, they'll be about 4 wr-heavy drafters for the first 3-4 rounds. Someone also has to take gronk and a few qbs. Aka a few teams will draft themselves into corners. And with that, there's gonna be players who'll sit a bit more than they 'should' since folks will start having to take whatever they don't have between rbs and wrs.

[jimaveli 119]

This whole rb ww thing was insane this year with all of the huge injuries. I agree that it's foolish to go into next year counting on that again. And people don't need to change their league rules around on account of this year. Tim Hightower isn't the first guy to show up out of nowhere and help hand a fantasy title to someone. There was also rando wrs like Brandon Lloyd. It happens.

 

At the same time, I'm going to really want to feel good about the 'expected' roles of any rb I take before the 4th round.

 

Next year, it's going to be interesting which rbs land where as drafts start. As it stands now, it's gonna be tough for me to show up and take someone like a yeldon or laytay Murray with a 6th pick if a top 3-type wr is hanging out on the board.

[jrbdmb 28]

change your league up.

I'm in a dynasty league no waivers draft in may right after nfl draft. I tend to think ww is an easy man's approach to ff. This league if u don't draft well you are a donater.

So my drafted team with Romo as my starter and Kap as the backup I'm going to finish the season with no QB? No thanks. Hell, NFL teams pick up free agents all the time, and a few of them turn out to be pretty good.