Lessons for 2016

[southcarolina 166]

Dynasty > redraft

 

 

 

Thats what i learned.

[murf74 461]

Dynasty > redraft

 

 

 

Thats what i learned.

Not disagreeing but why

[giraldi02 474]

Don't draft Jordan Mathews again

 

Drafting Jordan Matthews and Ryan Mathews on the same team tells me you bought too much Chippah Kool-Aid

[phillygrrl08 139]

Don't draft Jordan Mathews again

 

Better yet, avoid all Eagles until Chip has GM duties taken from him.

[southcarolina 166]

Not disagreeing but why

My mistakes can be spread out over several years.

[murf74 461]

 

Better yet, avoid all Eagles until Chip has GM duties taken from him.

Good one

[Kent 228]

This year the draft meant next to nothing. The waiver wire won.

[BobSanders_33 127]

 

One of my leagues, I was so convinced he was the real deal, I waited at WR so long specifically because I thought I could grab him late as my #1. Holy crap did that team suck.

 

I will no longer listen to the Summer Camp hype. Jordan Matthews couldn't be stopped and Davante Adams was camp MVP. Rodgers said he had star potential. M 3rd and 4th round picks. Lucky I got the AlRob in the 6th.

[murf74 461]

 

I will no longer listen to the Summer Camp hype. Jordan Matthews couldn't be stopped and Davante Adams was camp MVP. Rodgers said he had star potential. M 3rd and 4th round picks. Lucky I got the AlRob in the 6th.

It's better to set your cheat sheet rankings ignoring preseason

[giraldi02 474]

Funny thing regarding the complaints about not ever drafting Jordan Matthews again. A team in my main work league held onto him the entire season, primarily on the bench, got to the playoffs, and has started him in both games thus far. Now he's advancing to the championship next week.

 

The interesting thing about it to me is: Jordan Matthews the last two games has been dominating in the slot again. The same position that he did the majority of his damage last season in. When I asked the guy in my league why he started Matthews two weeks ago, that was his exact reasoning. He said with Miles Austin inactive and the demoting of DeMarco, maybe the Eagles would finally use Matthews the proper way again.

[murf74 461]

Funny thing regarding the complaints about not ever drafting Jordan Matthews again. A team in my main work league held onto him the entire season, primarily on the bench, got to the playoffs, and has started him in both games thus far. Now he's advancing to the championship next week.

 

The interesting thing about it to me is: Jordan Matthews the last two games has been dominating in the slot again. The same position that he did the majority of his damage last season in. When I asked the guy in my league why he started Matthews two weeks ago, that was his exact reasoning. He said with Miles Austin inactive and the demoting of DeMarco, maybe the Eagles would finally use Matthews the proper way again.

Good stuff too bad Chip couldn't figure it out quicker

[southcarolina 166]

Funny thing regarding the complaints about not ever drafting Jordan Matthews again. A team in my main work league held onto him the entire season, primarily on the bench, got to the playoffs, and has started him in both games thus far. Now he's advancing to the championship next week.

 

The interesting thing about it to me is: Jordan Matthews the last two games has been dominating in the slot again. The same position that he did the majority of his damage last season in. When I asked the guy in my league why he started Matthews two weeks ago, that was his exact reasoning. He said with Miles Austin inactive and the demoting of DeMarco, maybe the Eagles would finally use Matthews the proper way again.

The other funny thing about Jordan Matthews is that he actually had a (slightly)better season this year than he did last year, In 2014 he finished the year as WR25, averaging 12.6 pts/game (1PPR). He scored more than 20 points 4 times and more than 10 pts 8 times.

 

In 2015 after through 16 weeks he is currently ranked WR20 averaging 13.8 pts/game. He has scored more than 20 points 4 times and more than 10 points 9 times.

 

The difference is perception.

 

Last year he was a nice find late in the draft or off the WW. He was like found money.

 

People who drafted him this year (myself included) did so with the expectation that he would build on last year and be their WR1, or WR2 at worst. Spending a second or third round draft pick on him was a team killer.

 

Next year, the pendulum will swing the other way and people will put him on their Do Not Draft list and someone will get a nice solid piece in the 6th or 7th round.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,269]

The other funny thing about Jordan Matthews is that he actually had a (slightly)better season this year than he did last year, In 2014 he finished the year as WR25, averaging 12.6 pts/game (1PPR). He scored more than 20 points 4 times and more than 10 pts 8 times.

 

In 2015 after through 16 weeks he is currently ranked WR20 averaging 13.8 pts/game. He has scored more than 20 points 4 times and more than 10 points 9 times.

 

The difference is perception.

 

Last year he was a nice find late in the draft or off the WW. He was like found money.

 

People who drafted him this year (myself included) did so with the expectation that he would build on last year and be their WR1, or WR2 at worst. Spending a second or third round draft pick on him was a team killer.

 

Next year, the pendulum will swing the other way and people will put him on their Do Not Draft list and someone will get a nice solid piece in the 6th or 7th round.

So 6th or 7th round now, which means 3rd round by draft day

[Gratefulegg1973 261]

For next year, I'll be cancelling my Sirius subscription. I drive a lot for my job, and usually out of boredom I listen to the Fantasy station. Those fockers have swayed me in the wrong direction countless times this year. Then throw in the dorks on the fantasy TV shows, it's just way too much. I try my best to follow my gut, but listening and watching all that crap can influence your opinions.

[IGotWorms 4,058]

The other funny thing about Jordan Matthews is that he actually had a (slightly)better season this year than he did last year, In 2014 he finished the year as WR25, averaging 12.6 pts/game (1PPR). He scored more than 20 points 4 times and more than 10 pts 8 times.

 

In 2015 after through 16 weeks he is currently ranked WR20 averaging 13.8 pts/game. He has scored more than 20 points 4 times and more than 10 points 9 times.

 

The difference is perception.

 

Last year he was a nice find late in the draft or off the WW. He was like found money.

 

People who drafted him this year (myself included) did so with the expectation that he would build on last year and be their WR1, or WR2 at worst. Spending a second or third round draft pick on him was a team killer.

 

Next year, the pendulum will swing the other way and people will put him on their Do Not Draft list and someone will get a nice solid piece in the 6th or 7th round.

He was only worth starting in about three games until this recent two game streak, by which point many of his owners had been eliminated from contention. Otherwise he set you back big time being in your lineup. End of year stats don't tell the whole tale here

[Law 241]

Then throw in the dorks on the fantasy TV shows, it's just way too much. I try my best to follow my gut, but listening and watching all that crap can influence your opinions.

 

I listen to whatever Kay has to say. Or, at least, watch verrrrry closely as she says it.

 

[southcarolina 166]

He was only worth starting in about three games until this recent two game streak, by which point many of his owners had been eliminated from contention. Otherwise he set you back big time being in your lineup. End of year stats don't tell the whole tale here

He was no more consistent last year.

 

2015: 20 - 20 - 10.9 - 8 9.- 4 - 11. 9 - 4.4 - 28.3 - 5.1 - 5.3 - 15 - 12.6 - 4.9 - 29.9 - 22.4

 

2014: 5.7 - 2.7 - 25.9 - 6.8 - 7.5 - 9 - 10.7 - 32.8 - 21.7 - 13.7 - 15.1 - 4.3 - 0 - 8.8

 

 

My only point was that his season this year was pretty close to being identical to last year, and that after last year (when anyone who rostered him did so most likely as a late round draft pick or WW add) he was widely thought of as a guy who was going to give you WR1 production. After this season (in which most people who rostered him did so as a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick) he is widely considered a bust.Its all about perception, and value. Next year around draft time he will be remembered by a lot of people as a bust because he didnt live up to preseason expectations, and his ADP will suffer. And getting Jordan Matthews in the 6th or 7th round as your WR3 or WR4 is value. And value is what wins championships.

 

I consider Matthews to be a lot like Gio Bernard. After his rookie season (RB13) he was drafted like a RB1. In his second season he got Jeremy Hill'ed and he was a "bust" even though he averaged more points per game in his second season than his first. Then in his third season he was going in the 7th and 8th round of drafts, and he is again this season around RB15. If you got Gio Bernard in the 7th round as your RB3 or RB4 then you got tremendous value from that pick. And value is what wins championships. Herbivore won the 12G1C championship going away largely because he hit the late round trifecta of RB value: Doug Martin in the 6th, Gio Bernard in the 7th and Devonta Freeman in the 12th.

 

 

(All stats 1PPR)

[phillygrrl08 139]

For next year, I'll be cancelling my Sirius subscription. I drive a lot for my job, and usually out of boredom I listen to the Fantasy station. Those fockers have swayed me in the wrong direction countless times this year. Then throw in the dorks on the fantasy TV shows, it's just way too much. I try my best to follow my gut, but listening and watching all that crap can influence your opinions.

 

This.

 

The only use I have for them is facts about injuries and actives/inactives. The only difference between them and us is they get paid to guess who is going to do better.

[IGotWorms 4,058]

He was no more consistent last year.

 

2015: 20 - 20 - 10.9 - 8 9.- 4 - 11. 9 - 4.4 - 28.3 - 5.1 - 5.3 - 15 - 12.6 - 4.9 - 29.9 - 22.4

 

2014: 5.7 - 2.7 - 25.9 - 6.8 - 7.5 - 9 - 10.7 - 32.8 - 21.7 - 13.7 - 15.1 - 4.3 - 0 - 8.8

 

 

My only point was that his season this year was pretty close to being identical to last year, and that after last year (when anyone who rostered him did so most likely as a late round draft pick or WW add) he was widely thought of as a guy who was going to give you WR1 production. After this season (in which most people who rostered him did so as a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick) he is widely considered a bust.Its all about perception, and value. Next year around draft time he will be remembered by a lot of people as a bust because he didnt live up to preseason expectations, and his ADP will suffer. And getting Jordan Matthews in the 6th or 7th round as your WR3 or WR4 is value. And value is what wins championships.

 

I consider Matthews to be a lot like Gio Bernard. After his rookie season (RB13) he was drafted like a RB1. In his second season he got Jeremy Hill'ed and he was a "bust" even though he averaged more points per game in his second season than his first. Then in his third season he was going in the 7th and 8th round of drafts, and he is again this season around RB15. If you got Gio Bernard in the 7th round as your RB3 or RB4 then you got tremendous value from that pick. And value is what wins championships. Herbivore won the 12G1C championship going away largely because he hit the late round trifecta of RB value: Doug Martin in the 6th, Gio Bernard in the 7th and Devonta Freeman in the 12th.

 

 

(All stats 1PPR)

Gonna have to disagree with this line of thinking.

 

Take Gio for example: most games this year he was mediocre at best (in PPR). Maybe he finished out the year ranked decently overall, primarily just because he stayed healthy, but if you were starting him week to week you got underwhelming production most of the time. And that's what actually matters in most leagues, not how he finished overall at the end of the year.

 

Similar issue with Jordan Matthews. Are these guys "value" players? I submit that the answer is no, not really, because if you start them week to week you get hosed most weeks. You'd be better off cycling in the flavor du jour at the position.

[Magnificent Bastard 191]

For next year, I'll be cancelling my Sirius subscription. I drive a lot for my job, and usually out of boredom I listen to the Fantasy station. Those fockers have swayed me in the wrong direction countless times this year. Then throw in the dorks on the fantasy TV shows, it's just way too much. I try my best to follow my gut, but listening and watching all that crap can influence your opinions.

Me too. Especially the "guru" Hansen. They made that channel a joke with the porn stars and being in the tank for DFS. Oh well, it was good for a little while. At east I'll save the money.

[southcarolina 166]

Gonna have to disagree with this line of thinking.

 

Take Gio for example: most games this year he was mediocre at best (in PPR). Maybe he finished out the year ranked decently overall, primarily just because he stayed healthy, but if you were starting him week to week you got underwhelming production most of the time. And that's what actually matters in most leagues, not how he finished overall at the end of the year.

 

Similar issue with Jordan Matthews. Are these guys "value" players? I submit that the answer is no, not really, because if you start them week to week you get hosed most weeks. You'd be better off cycling in the flavor du jour at the position.

But thats the point, You wouldnt be starting your RB3 or RB4 most weeks. He would be a BYE week fill in/injury replacement.

 

Gio's scores during the BYE weeks:

 

15 - 14 - 5.5 - 9.6 - 12.9 - 22.6 - 8.7

 

I agree that if Gio were your RB1 you'd be in trouble. But thats not what im saying. Im saying as a draft asset, he provides value because he gave more production than his draft slot would indicate. In 12G1C he was the 33rd RB drafted, but is the 17th highest scoring RB. Getting a guy who ultimately ended the season as a top 15-ish RB as a fill in is supreme value, IMO.

 

 

 

 

My point in all this is value is all a function of how much you spend to acquire something, and the price tag is very often driven by perception. .Both Gio and Matthews were generously hyped after their rookie seasons, and labled busts after second seasons that were nearly identical to the seasons that got them hyped in the first place. Gio was then a bargain the following season (ADP around 77....mid-6th round for 12 team leagues) Im just predicting Jordan Matthews ADP takes a similar plunge next year and could be a sneaky WR4 or WR5 pick.

 

If you want to put Matthews on your DND list, hey who am i to say youre wrong. Im the guy who drafted Jeremy HIll and Jordan Matthews at the 2/3 turn and took Joseph Randle in the 5th. So im obviously not very good at this whole Fantasy Football thing.

[Beyond Chaos 75]

I learned that auctions are better than snake drafts.

[giraldi02 474]

I learned that auctions are better than snake drafts.

This.

[gitrdun 18]

We can keep 1 player drafted 4th round or worst. I kept Jordan Matthews and drafted Lacy in the 8th spot. Did not have a 2nd pick. I was not a fun year.

[phillygrrl08 139]

 

Better yet, avoid all Eagles until Chip has GM duties taken from him.

 

The ban on drafting any Eagles has now been lifted

[fatguylittlecoat 13]

We have an auction format, i went with AP and Julio and then went for best options after, next year will do the same thing but will most likely target David Johnson and DHop, they're both monsters

[Frozenbeernuts 2,269]

We have an auction format, i went with AP and Julio and then went for best options after, next year will do the same thing but will most likely target David Johnson and DHop, they're both monsters

So blowing your money on two top guys paid off?

[jaxjag 43]

Stop drafting Tom Brady and then being shocked when he lays an egg in important spots and screws you.

 

Qbs get hurt too. You need two on your roster most of the time. Also. You can't allow players who can eliminate you to be on the wire so there's that too.

 

But please do a little research so you don't 'have to' draft a qb super early to feel like you have a good one. Luck and Rodgers owners likely have very few championships to show.

 

Calvin Johnson...let him fall a bit next year.

 

AJ Green is a classic 'the end of the year stats look good but owning him every week sucks' bengals wr.

 

With that written, look at some game logs when you're prepping for drafts. Don't end up with a team full of boom and bust folks because you just looked at total points from the previous year.

 

Brandon Marshall...stop not drafting him. He's usually better than whatever hot take guy is around in the 3-5 rounds.

 

Except Nuk. Draft the hell out of Nuk. He's early days Andre Johnson in a league where it is much easier to pass. Aka his td rate is much better...like 2x the tds. No matter what Houston is up to, he's gonna kill it.

 

Zero rb is like wearing a pink shirt...it's not bold now that damn near everyone is doing it. Get the players you like most. And don't act like your Doug Martin, Ivory, and Gurley couldn't have been Abdullah, Tevin Coleman, and Melvin Gordon. Right? Right.

 

By the way...there were good wrs to be had late too. Again, you had to get the 'right ones'.

 

I didn't have any high picks to grab those guys. Instead, I drafted David Johnson, Jeremy Langford and Karlos Williams.

 

Not to gloat, but don't shy away from talented guys that lack immediate opportunity (Ellington, Forte, McCoy).

[Frozenbeernuts 2,269]

 

I didn't have any high picks to grab those guys. Instead, I drafted David Johnson, Jeremy Langford and Karlos Williams.

 

Not to gloat, but don't shy away from talented guys that lack immediate opportunity (Ellington, Forte, McCoy).

Its easy to say that, but its much harder to practice. I have drafted a ton of upside guys who just dont get a legitimate opportunity. Its also hard to tell when a crappy team is bad for real football, but a goldmine for ffball. Allen robinson and allen hurns are perfect examples. Bortles isnt a very good qb and the jags suck. They still thrived. Then we have the niners whose pass game is so bad that it doesnt matter how good their receivers are, kaep will sink their value

[jaxjag 43]

Its easy to say that, but its much harder to practice. I have drafted a ton of upside guys who just dont get a legitimate opportunity. Its also hard to tell when a crappy team is bad for real football, but a goldmine for ffball. Allen robinson and allen hurns are perfect examples. Bortles isnt a very good qb and the jags suck. They still thrived. Then we have the niners whose pass game is so bad that it doesnt matter how good their receivers are, kaep will sink their value

 

I wouldn't be so hard on Bortles - he is a second year guy who was thrown into the fire too soon. And, at least from a fantasy perspective, he was the #5 QB in my scoring system (just ahead of Brees). There were guys posting that they wouldn't touch a Jaguar last summer. They're still moving in a positive direction.

 

Sometimes it seems obvious to me; a combination of eye-ball test and logic. I really liked what I'd seen of Johnson and Ellington has an injury history. Plus, it's a prolific offense. Langford was seen as a versatile back and an ideal one for PPR. Given, Forte's age and contract status, this seemed like a good investment for 2016. Williams has a freaky combination of size and speed. I had my doubts about McCoy's ability to stay healthy (still up in the air) and his attitude (could have been a Chip Kelly thing).

 

Short of Carlos Hyde, I think all the 49ers were off my radar last year.

 

Really hammered the draft last year - drafted Tyler Lockett too. Looked like a tremendous play-maker in preseason and knew the "fear of Seahawk WRs" would let him plummet in the draft.

[tanatastic 2,062]

No way am I falling for the early qb bait again. Freeman, Gurley, DJohnson, Langford, Bell, AP top 6rbs in no order. Yes you heard me, Langford. If hes the starter, hes a top 5 guy, dont give a fock where Fabiano ranks him. Oh and before you say Freeman sucks and is fools gold, get real. He was a baller and carried that pitiful team. Im doing what I want next year, rankings be damned. After those guys its Brown, Hopkins, odb and Julio. Dez can suck me, hes never going on my draft board. Also be sure to draft Bells backup and trade him after 5 games before he ends another season with a knee. Might not draft a qb til rnd 8-9, no point. Wont reach for Eifert, ill just grab the next eifert, they arent hard to spot.

 

Heres the plan. I usually come in here around july to start tossing around speculation and such. Then by september we are burnt out and have JMatthews as a top 10wr. Best to shield yourself from any football news except player movement and injury til august. then make rankings right before preseason starts and adjust ONLY for injury. Dont even watch a single game, play or stat. Then draft day you will be free of all kinds of fockwit baloney the analysts have been shoveling to fill air space. Better yet, make your rankings this week while the players a re fresh in your minds. Then adjust for rookies and injury as the months go on.

[jimaveli 119]

I can't make my draft sheet this early.

 

The content shoveling CAN screw you but I need to know the coaches, the qbs, the schedule, and the free agent signings. And seeing a mid round dude looking spry in preseason is reassuring and a cool tie-breaker between him and some dude with a hammy injury and/or going through a holdout. Ivory and Martin clued us in. Abdullah fooled us with his magical cuts and jukes. Dez tried to tell us a bad year was coming his way by holding out and getting nicked up more than once during camp/preseason. He even gave us the classic 'looks a little heavy' visual aid. I was still ready to take him in the 2nd but lucked out when my league's habitual reacher took him in the first.

 

I consume some content starting during camp. I get in a bit more for preseason. A couple weeks before a draft, I'm all in it...mocking, seeing where folks are going, seeing if I'm ready to zag vs a popular zig, crossing people off of my list, looking at c-ranks and game logs, and getting into it.

[jimaveli 119]

Is there anyone here still feeling good about taking a qb early?

[Frozenbeernuts 2,269]

No way am I falling for the early qb bait again. Freeman, Gurley, DJohnson, Langford, Bell, AP top 6rbs in no order. Yes you heard me, Langford. If hes the starter, hes a top 5 guy, dont give a fock where Fabiano ranks him. Oh and before you say Freeman sucks and is fools gold, get real. He was a baller and carried that pitiful team. Im doing what I want next year, rankings be damned. After those guys its Brown, Hopkins, odb and Julio. Dez can suck me, hes never going on my draft board. Also be sure to draft Bells backup and trade him after 5 games before he ends another season with a knee. Might not draft a qb til rnd 8-9, no point. Wont reach for Eifert, ill just grab the next eifert, they arent hard to spot.

 

Heres the plan. I usually come in here around july to start tossing around speculation and such. Then by september we are burnt out and have JMatthews as a top 10wr. Best to shield yourself from any football news except player movement and injury til august. then make rankings right before preseason starts and adjust ONLY for injury. Dont even watch a single game, play or stat. Then draft day you will be free of all kinds of fockwit baloney the analysts have been shoveling to fill air space. Better yet, make your rankings this week while the players a re fresh in your minds. Then adjust for rookies and injury as the months go on.

You are going to be so pissed when Freeman flops next year after you spend a high pick on him.

 

Maclin was a guy that i ignored other peoples views on. Some said once he went to the chiefs that he had become undraftable. Hah! I traded a first round rookie pick for him and couldnt have been happier (since i won the league).

[IGotWorms 4,058]

No way am I falling for the early qb bait again. Freeman, Gurley, DJohnson, Langford, Bell, AP top 6rbs in no order. Yes you heard me, Langford. If hes the starter, hes a top 5 guy, dont give a fock where Fabiano ranks him. Oh and before you say Freeman sucks and is fools gold, get real. He was a baller and carried that pitiful team. Im doing what I want next year, rankings be damned. After those guys its Brown, Hopkins, odb and Julio. Dez can suck me, hes never going on my draft board. Also be sure to draft Bells backup and trade him after 5 games before he ends another season with a knee. Might not draft a qb til rnd 8-9, no point. Wont reach for Eifert, ill just grab the next eifert, they arent hard to spot.

 

Heres the plan. I usually come in here around july to start tossing around speculation and such. Then by september we are burnt out and have JMatthews as a top 10wr. Best to shield yourself from any football news except player movement and injury til august. then make rankings right before preseason starts and adjust ONLY for injury. Dont even watch a single game, play or stat. Then draft day you will be free of all kinds of fockwit baloney the analysts have been shoveling to fill air space. Better yet, make your rankings this week while the players a re fresh in your minds. Then adjust for rookies and injury as the months go on.

Agree on your plan. I basically did that this year out of necessity, just didn't have the time to obsess over everything leading up to the draft. Well I had pretty much my best draft ever and won my first championship in eight years (it's a pretty competitive league).

 

You can definitely overthink things leading up to the draft

[tanatastic 2,062]

You are going to be so pissed when Freeman flops next year after you spend a high pick on him.

 

Maclin was a guy that i ignored other peoples views on. Some said once he went to the chiefs that he had become undraftable. Hah! I traded a first round rookie pick for him and couldnt have been happier (since i won the league).

My rebuttal is that I love a bellcow that is equally dangerous catching the ball like Freeman is. He can bail out low rushing days with 7-72. I love guys like this that stay involved. I think he is the real deal and won't bust.

 

@Worms- Great story. It really shows that ignorance can be bliss for fantasy owners. You didn't over analyze every scrap of info and it paid off. Conversely, I spent a literal 8rhs a day doing research (work at home job) and I won $0 across 3 leagues. My main draft was a delightful zero RB result of Luck, Green, JMatt, Abdullah, Martin, Kelce. Counting Freeman later that's 2 reliable players in 16rnds of drafting. Still made playoffs but draft was crap.

[murf74 461]

Is there anyone here still feeling good about taking a qb early?

I make a list of QBs I can live with as my starter. I then draft whatever round I need before last guy disappears. It usually works great. Sometimes I double up and end up with great streaming option. I like having 2 capable QBs. This year proved you need it

[jimaveli 119]

Cool. Now...define 'live with'. For me, in trying to get someone who is in the top half of starters in the league. Ie: top 5 in a 10 team, 6 in a 12, ETC.

 

I tend to try to push my friends away from Matt Ryan types who are destined to finish 9th every year. Instead, catch Brees and Cam, know that they'll have about the same schedule, and assume at least one will be reliable.

[PJ_Abyss 0]

Never again will I take a QB in round 1

[justforbeer 41]

The thing I despise most about fantasy football is WW. This year most champions are WW dominators.

 

It is like playing cards with the hands dealt and someone gets to discard a card and add a joker.

 

After 20 years of FFOOTBALL, I am starting to lose my desire to play as it is so different and not as fun.

 

I learned, I may need to find a new hobby.....