Big Boards from Doug Orth - Version 1.0

[Quickolas1 80]

I've seen a site or two question why most rankings out there have Marvin Jones 40+ spots lower than Golden Tate. I tend to agree. The Lions are going to throw throw throw and Marvin is taking the Megatron role (150 targets in '15). Tate is keeping the same role. Marvin is not Megatron and no one is saying he's going to get every one of those targets but the extreme difference in ranking: Mega last year vs Marvin this year (81st by Orth and a slightly lower ADP than that) may be questionable.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Got Marvin in the 7th round of my big money draft. I like him better than Tate this year flat out. We know the Lions will throw a ton. He should be the red zone target and down field target. Love the upside.

[Mike FF Today 608]

OK, Big Board, Top 150 Overall for Non-PPR leagues is posted.

[kujerry 9]

 

I do have the Non-PPR version is my greasy little hands, but have been swamped today. I should have it posted later this evening.

Ur awesome but I only need ur ppr. Hahaha

[The Football Guru 212]

I've seen a site or two question why most rankings out there have Marvin Jones 40+ spots lower than Golden Tate. I tend to agree. The Lions are going to throw throw throw and Marvin is taking the Megatron role (150 targets in '15). Tate is keeping the same role. Marvin is not Megatron and no one is saying he's going to get every one of those targets but the extreme difference in ranking: Mega last year vs Marvin this year (81st by Orth and a slightly lower ADP than that) may be questionable.

 

Got Marvin in the 7th round of my big money draft. I like him better than Tate this year flat out. We know the Lions will throw a ton. He should be the red zone target and down field target. Love the upside.

Glad you guys are here to set me straight.

 

This will get fixed on the 0.5 PPR boards and beyond; I'm not quite going better than Tate (esp. in PPR), but I like him too. Just moved him into the beginning of the sixth round on my PPR board.

 

I saw the same report as I'm sure you guys did - Jones was emerging as the clear No. 1 while Tate was having issues with drops. Jones may beat Tate in TDs, but I'd be surprised if he's within 15-20 catches of Tate. Jones' value will go skyrocket, however, if Ebron can't stay healthy.

[$epphori$ 118]

 

OK, let's be clear about a few things. Benjamin being out all of last year isn't the only reason I'm ranking him low. To my knowledge, Jamaal Charles and Jordy Nelson had the same injury and I've got them in the second and third round, respectively. Furthermore, White's injury was a stress fracture, not an ACL. There was talk White could have made it back late last season, so I'm not overly concerned about his health or recovery for this season.

 

White has never played a NFL snap. Remind me again how many "rookies" have performed well in recent years. White has as much, if not more, talent than a handful of players who came out in Watkins/Evans/OBJ/Benjamin/Landry class. The point about Cutler is a solid one, but no one seems to care about that when it comes to discussing Alshon Jeffery. (White is a more talented player, just less experienced.) Floyd has produced one season (out of four) a line better than last year's 52-849-6. One. He also has one of the generation's best receivers and a wideout his coach has compared to Marvin Harrison to share targets with. I'll take Floyd over all but a few receivers in the league based on talent, but you'd like to think by now he would have put up a season with more than 65 catches or scored more than six times. Another key reason I have White ahead of Floyd at the moment is because I don't expect Jeffery to play every game. That makes White the only show in town at that point.

 

I guess if you do this long enough, you're probably going to get called a homer for some team or player. I think you can tell I am not a Bears' homer based on my ranks of Jeffery and Langford (exclusion of Cutler and Zach Miller) and I'm from Nebraska originally, not New Jersey. I'm not banging the drum for Quincy Enunwa anytime soon And seeing how the Lions plan on using Ameer Abdullah, you can bet he's not going to crawl up my rankings much higher.

 

Anyway, we can agree to disagree on all of this. I'm just glad you're choosing to use my rankings to help you in your draft.

I appreciate the reply back. I understand people are going to have diff opinions. I mean if we didnt, the first ranking of the season would go up and that would be the only one we would all need. I had Floyd as my #3 last year and he did help me greatly down the stretch. I do expect him to finally be healthy enough to have matured enough to finally continue in a productive manner. Me calling you a homer was really just me trying to wrap my head around your reasoning. I draft Sunday. So I will be using this list and a few others for cross reference. Good luck this year

[The Football Guru 212]

A heads-up for everyone (and a reminder for others):

 

My PPR rankings are for two-RB, three-WR leagues and my standard rankings are for two-RB, two-WR leagues. The 0.5 PPR will be two-RB, three-WR and the TFC/FFPC boards will reflect those site's rules (of course).

[DrG 94]

There are some interesting older articles about typical peak ages for NFL careers. Long/short, 24-26 for RBS, 26-28 for WRs. TES peak a little later, and not surprisingly, QBS can stay at/near their ceiling much longer. As much as I like AP, JCharles and consider them to be the exceptional exceptions, some interesting reasons not to take them.

 

As far as the Vikes go, a pivotal year for Jerrick McKinnon, IMO. He either makes a case to supplant or at least take a lot of work from AP, or he doesn't.

[The Football Guru 212]

There are some interesting older articles about typical peak ages for NFL careers. Long/short, 24-26 for RBS, 26-28 for WRs. TES peak a little later, and not surprisingly, QBS can stay at/near their ceiling much longer. As much as I like AP, JCharles and consider them to be the exceptional exceptions, some interesting reasons not to take them.

 

As far as the Vikes go, a pivotal year for Jerrick McKinnon, IMO. He either makes a case to supplant or at least take a lot of work from AP, or he doesn't.

Age is certainly something I'm keeping in mind this year. It's the primary reason I've got AP and Marshall where I do, although both are in phenomenal shape. It seems like I'm moving Charles up or down a half-round every other day, although that is more injury (and projected early usage) than age. He's not a high-volume back to begin with and has had two seasons cut off significantly by injury, so I'm not sure his 29 is like other backs' 29.

 

To your point about McKinnon: An owner in my experts' dynasty league wants a first for McKinnon after he could have been "had" for a second-rounder during our rookie draft in June, although I don't know that to be true. I've been in this league with this guy for five years and we have yet to do a trade even though we are probably the two most active owners. To give you some sense of his offers, he'll "do" Dion Lewis (my guy) for a second-rounder, but McKinnon (his guy) can now only be had for a first.

[Mike FF Today 608]

Half-Point PPR added.

 

Marvin Jones No.56.

[Gepetto 988]

Golden Tate and Dion Lewis have zero chance of being on my team.

 

Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin, DeVante Parker, Kevin White, Stefan Diggs, and Rishard Matthews probably will be.

[Ace08 11]

Got Marvin in the 7th round of my big money draft. I like him better than Tate this year flat out. We know the Lions will throw a ton. He should be the red zone target and down field target. Love the upside.

 

I got him in the 10th round of my big money 12 man ppr tonight and couldn't be happier....

 

I was big on Tate all summer but the disparity in price (10th round vs 4th round where Tate was taken in the same draft) makes Marvin the much better value.

[the spanker 28]

Half-Point PPR added.

 

Marvin Jones No.56.

 

Is there any adjustment to your PPR ranking on Bell now that we know he's only out 3 games instead of 4?

[The Football Guru 212]

 

Is there any adjustment to your PPR ranking on Bell now that we know he's only out 3 games instead of 4?

No. Knocked D-Will down a few pegs though. Had Bell's suspension been cut in half, I may have been inclined to make him a first-rounder.

[the spanker 28]

No. Knocked D-Will down a few pegs though. Had Bell's suspension been cut in half, I may have been inclined to make him a first-rounder.

 

Thanks man, now that's service! I didn't expect for you to respond so quickly. Another quick question though, are you higher on Langely considering his usage in the preseason? It looks like no one is threatening his workload.

[The Football Guru 212]

 

Thanks man, now that's service! I didn't expect for you to respond so quickly. Another quick question though, are you higher on Langely considering his usage in the preseason? It looks like no one is threatening his workload.

Just happened to check the forum at the right time

 

I'm guessing you mean Langford? I saw what Fox said, but I'm still pretty cool on him. I moved him up to the end of the sixth/beginning of the seventh on the 1/2 PPR (roughly the same now on my PPR board), but his newfound "job security" doesn't take away the fact he is a poor yard-after-contact runner or a below-average receiver. Hopefully, when I get a chance to review this most recent preseason game, I'll see some improvement in those regards. Otherwise, I think he'll probably hang around the mid-70s for me.

 

I'm hoping to finish up Week 1 of the preseason tonight and hopefully I'll get on CHI-NE tomorrow b/c I'm kind of anxious myself to watch Langford a bit closer.

[Matt Mueller 146]

In our IBL FFTODAY league I'm only drafting dudes we talk about here. Welcome Marvin Jones. I nabbed him 6.1. His adp won't stay buried for long.

[Quickolas1 80]

I saw the same report as I'm sure you guys did - Jones was emerging as the clear No. 1 while Tate was having issues with drops.

 

I wasn't referring to some beat reporter tweeting his opinion and I would totally ignore anything regarding Tate and drops. He'll almost certainly catch more passes than Marvin.

I meant articles from the more analytical sites, that are looking at things like route trees, depth per target, QB pass dispersion, etc.

 

This should be a pretty good test to see how replaceable WRs are. (I think most would finally agree RBs are)

And it only took NFL GMs an extra 5 years to catch on versus the rest of us! (don't use 1st round NFL Draft capital on RBs)

Will Megatron's talent and his cost (FF late 1st rounder) equate to the much lower cost of Marvin and his talent?

We shall see.

[keepitreal 0]

Looks like QBs have the highest FP/G in the rankings and almost without a doubt 3 or 4 of them will finish in the top-12. ^{Is the reason they're ranked lower because the difference between the top and the tenth best is small or that they're risk picks?}

 

^{In our league with similar scoring, Newton finished #1, considerably ahead of Brown. OBJ finished 17th I think.}

[the spanker 28]

 

I wasn't referring to some beat reporter tweeting his opinion and I would totally ignore anything regarding Tate and drops. He'll almost certainly catch more passes than Marvin.

I meant articles from the more analytical sites, that are looking at things like route trees, depth per target, QB pass dispersion, etc.

 

This should be a pretty good test to see how replaceable WRs are. (I think most would finally agree RBs are)

And it only took NFL GMs an extra 5 years to catch on versus the rest of us! (don't use 1st round NFL Draft capital on RBs)

Will Megatron's talent and his cost (FF late 1st rounder) equate to the much lower cost of Marvin and his talent?

We shall see.

 

What about 2nd and 3rd round capital on RBs? I assume you prescribe to the Zero RB strategy instead of BPA?

[the spanker 28]

Just happened to check the forum at the right time

 

I'm guessing you mean Langford? I saw what Fox said, but I'm still pretty cool on him. I moved him up to the end of the sixth/beginning of the seventh on the 1/2 PPR (roughly the same now on my PPR board), but his newfound "job security" doesn't take away the fact he is a poor yard-after-contact runner or a below-average receiver. Hopefully, when I get a chance to review this most recent preseason game, I'll see some improvement in those regards. Otherwise, I think he'll probably hang around the mid-70s for me.

 

I'm hoping to finish up Week 1 of the preseason tonight and hopefully I'll get on CHI-NE tomorrow b/c I'm kind of anxious myself to watch Langford a bit closer.

 

Sorry, yes, I meant Langford. I really need to stop being a mid-night owl poster on this forum. Please let me know, after you review the preseason game, if your opinion changes about him.

 

Many times opportunity trumps talent when it comes to acquiring RB production.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

 

I got him in the 10th round of my big money 12 man ppr tonight and couldn't be happier....

 

I was big on Tate all summer but the disparity in price (10th round vs 4th round where Tate was taken in the same draft) makes Marvin the much better value.

Really? That's crazy value for a 12 man league. I wouldn't have let him slip past the 8th most likely. Good deal

[Quickolas1 80]

 

What about 2nd and 3rd round capital on RBs? I assume you prescribe to the Zero RB strategy instead of BPA?

 

Not fantasy drafts... the NFL Draft... as in, RBs are not difference-making players...

(the Rams and Cowboys are testing this with Gurley and Ez E while the rest of the GMs have decided not to)

[the spanker 28]

 

Not fantasy drafts... the NFL Draft... as in, RBs are not difference-making players...

(the Rams and Cowboys are testing this with Gurley and Ez E while the rest of the GMs have decided not to)

 

Oh okay.

[The Football Guru 212]

 

Sorry, yes, I meant Langford. I really need to stop being a mid-night owl poster on this forum. Please let me know, after you review the preseason game, if your opinion changes about him.

 

Many times opportunity trumps talent when it comes to acquiring RB production.

I was not expecting to be impressed, but Langford ran with some authority in this game. The Bears used him mostly on zone runs and gave him some nice holes to run through, but he didn't look anything like the guy that was worst in the league in yards after contact last year. I only saw him block once as Chicago continually used play-action and had him go out into the pattern after the fake, so he'd get an incomplete grade there.

 

It was one quarter of one preseason game, so let's not go crazy. But it was a good start. If Jordan Howard is the third guy through again like he was this week and doesn't come in for Langford at the goal line next week, then we might have something.

[DrG 94]

Doug I saw your note about Lewis and McKinnon, who has a hall of fame rb ahead of him, Lewis does not. Your owner who can't propose a fair trade will never be able to reconcile that. He sees mostly his players, upside and yours' downsides and not both sides for each

[The Football Guru 212]

Doug I saw your note about Lewis and McKinnon, who has a hall of fame rb ahead of him, Lewis does not. Your owner who can't propose a fair trade will never be able to reconcile that. He sees mostly his players, upside and yours' downsides and not both sides for each

Yeah, it's just sad. Every year, it seems like some owner (and sometimes more than one) in our league decides to trade their first-round pick to him for a questionable player. I think in the last two rookie drafts, he has scooped up all but maybe one of the first-round RBs. Having said that, he missed out on David and Duke Johnson among others and I'm not sure he's ever made it past the first round of our fantasy playoffs.

 

Another example: He put Ladarius Green on the block a couple of weeks ago (about a day before the Green's headache story broke) and I offered him Rudolph and a third (I would have considered a second) for Green, who hasn't practiced since joining the Steelers if memory serves. Of course, he wanted a first for Green too (I've got Gronk).

[Mike FF Today 608]

Added a BB for the TFC High Stakes League.

 

Nice commentary at the end on which players to target and avoid in this tournament.

[the spanker 28]

I was not expecting to be impressed, but Langford ran with some authority in this game. The Bears used him mostly on zone runs and gave him some nice holes to run through, but he didn't look anything like the guy that was worst in the league in yards after contact last year. I only saw him block once as Chicago continually used play-action and had him go out into the pattern after the fake, so he'd get an incomplete grade there.

 

It was one quarter of one preseason game, so let's not go crazy. But it was a good start. If Jordan Howard is the third guy through again like he was this week and doesn't come in for Langford at the goal line next week, then we might have something.

 

Yeah that's if Langford will play next week. Even if healthy the Bears may choose to sit him out.

[The Football Guru 212]

 

Yeah that's if Langford will play next week. Even if healthy the Bears may choose to sit him out.

Good point. I'm still highly skeptical Fox doesn't turn the backfield into a RBBC before long. The Bears' line certainly hasn't improved this season as far as I can tell (lost their C, Charles Leno and Bobby Massie are their bookends at tackle), so Langford could go from decent value to bum pretty quickly.

[kujerry 9]

Waiting for this. Thanks.

When will the updated Version be out?

[The Football Guru 212]

When will the updated Version be out?

Next week, probably Tuesday (maybe Monday night if we are all really lucky). I'll start with the PPR Big Board and try to knock out one a day after that.

[kujerry 9]

Next week, probably Tuesday (maybe Monday night if we are all really lucky). I'll start with the PPR Big Board and try to knock out one a day after that.

I really hope Monday afternoon. Lol. My draft is Monday night need to put the finishing touches. Hahaha

[Mike FF Today 608]

Added Big Board for the FFPC.