So, how likely do you think it is that elliot has a big first year?

[giraldi02 476]

My point was, there are better fliers. Alf offers absolutely no upside. That's a bad flier. He's slow. He's fumble paranoid into ineffectiveness. It's a wasted flier.

 

Here's a situation where a guy with an ADP of 149 instantly offers immense upside.

 

Zeke gets hurt.

 

Morris owner puts a certain wasted flier on the trading block.

WR3 for your end of the draft flier.

[Cruzer 1,996]

The issue with Zeke is, as of right now - he's nothing but hype.

 

We know what Morris is. We know that behind this line Morris looks like a reborn, all world RB... Zeke has not played a snap - notta. We think we know, but we really don't... We will all have a better feel for Elliot this weekend - he is scheduled to finally play against Seattle... And as everyone knows, the 3rd pre-season game is where we normally see the starters - least for a half.

[Kent 228]

 

There was a lot of rookie hype about Melvin Gordon last year too. Maybe not this much, but there was a lot. Danny Woodhead far out performed him, and I'm sure there were Chargers homers saying how bad Woodhead is.

 

Morris is a fine late round flyer especially if Zeke's hamstring thing lingers. Lots of healthy rookie RB's don't turn out. I'm supposed to believe a hurt one is going to outshine a proven guy. So what if he is a plodder. So was DMC and that kind of worked out behind this offensive line.

I can describe DMC in many ways. But in no way is he a plodder.

[sirensong 111]

Washingtons Oline was a hot mess and no one could run behind it... Morris is a ZBS RB in the best ZBS system in the league. He is a rookie away from being an impact player. Its not a bad cuff at all.

 

this.

[Kent 228]

 

Here's a situation where a guy with an ADP of 149 instantly offers immense upside.

 

Zeke gets hurt.

 

Morris owner puts a certain wasted flier on the trading block.

WR3 for your end of the draft flier.

So taking a flier on a player you intend to trade. That's not how this works. That's groundbreaking draft strategy. I'll let someone else break that ground and just take a flier I intend to use if all goes well.

[giraldi02 476]

So taking a flier on a player you intend to trade. That's not how this works. That's groundbreaking draft strategy. I'll let someone else break that ground and just take a flier I intend to use if all goes well.

 

I didn't say that. I said that's one situation where he offers upside. How can you say otherwise? You don't think someone in a league would trade for him if a report came out and said Zeke is going to miss three games? I guarantee you could fleece 40% of the teams in a league with Morris in that situation. ANY league.

 

I have 100% exposure to Morris in my MFL10's, and I'll likely have close to 100% exposure to him in all my other leagues (2 of 3 in dynasty this offseason). His cost to acquire is as low as you can go this year for a guy in that position.

 

We get it. You're burned by his drop off in production in Washington.

 

But you're allowing yourself to get so blinded by last season that you can't see that he's a hurt hamstring or sore groin or injured knee from being a bell-cow behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. To say that there's no upside for a guy being drafted near the end of drafts is not just wrong, it's a blind allegiance to your stance.

[sirensong 111]

why are we even talking about morris as a flier instead of a must-have handcuff anyway?

[giraldi02 476]

why are we even talking about morris as a flier instead of a must-have handcuff anyway?

 

 

Morris is arguably the second, at worst third, most important handcuff there is at running back.

 

D-Will

McKinnon

Morris

[weepaws 3,410]

I would place S Ware on that list.

[giraldi02 476]

I would place S Ware on that list.

 

A lot of people seem hyped on Ware, but my money is on Charcandrick West still, particularly in PPR formats.

 

After Jamaal Charles went down last season, Ware only had two games where he had more than 17 snaps on offense. His lack of targets in the passing game worry me slightly too. He caught all of his 6 targets, but I feel like Andy Reid and company trust West to be more of the dual-threat option. Also, more than 50.0% of Ware's fantasy points last year came in the two games against Pittsburgh and Buffalo.

 

I think that backfield if/when Charles goes down has opportunity, but I'm not going to use a draft pick on either...since I don't see a clearly defined backup

 

[skinsrule05 30]

Adrian Peterson 2007.

Mike Anderson in 2000.

Edgering James 1999.

 

The fact that you could only think of 3 over the last 17 years helps my point. Then the fact that one of those three had a steep drop off at the end of their rookie season seals the deal. Zeke could work out. I am just saying history isn't on his side. It creates enough doubt that you should avoid him (my plan) or at a minimum handcuff him with Morris.

 

AP per game averages (2007)

Games 1-8= 130 yds rushing, 26 yds rec, 8 TDs

Games 9-16= 38 yds rush, 8 yds rec, 4 TDs (with two games hurt)

[Kent 228]

 

I didn't say that. I said that's one situation where he offers upside. How can you say otherwise? You don't think someone in a league would trade for him if a report came out and said Zeke is going to miss three games? I guarantee you could fleece 40% of the teams in a league with Morris in that situation. ANY league.

 

I have 100% exposure to Morris in my MFL10's, and I'll likely have close to 100% exposure to him in all my other leagues (2 of 3 in dynasty this offseason). His cost to acquire is as low as you can go this year for a guy in that position.

 

We get it. You're burned by his drop off in production in Washington.

 

But you're allowing yourself to get so blinded by last season that you can't see that he's a hurt hamstring or sore groin or injured knee from being a bell-cow behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. To say that there's no upside for a guy being drafted near the end of drafts is not just wrong, it's a blind allegiance to your stance.

I'm not blinded by last season. He's in a steady decline since his first season. A season which he had the luxury of running in a pistol read option offense when RG3 was a rookie running wild. I loved Alf. But his situation is over. You want to talk blind? All the folks in here that think any RB on the planet is automatically going to be some stud because of the Dallas line. That's blind.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

I'm not blinded by last season. He's in a steady decline since his first season. A season which he had the luxury of running in a pistol read option offense when RG3 was a rookie running wild. I loved Alf. But his situation is over. You want to talk blind? All the folks in here that think any RB on the planet is automatically going to be some stud because of the Dallas line. That's blind.

 

RB might be the most overrated skill position in the league. Sure elite guys do it better, but there are DOZENS of backups that could play behind that offensive line and have a valuable fantasy season. You are stuck on Alf. I don't give a sh!t about Alf. I see a starter behind the best offensive line in the game, that only takes 1 injury to come to fruition. Change his name in your head if you have to so that you aren't drafting Alf.

 

There aren't many better situations in the league.

[giraldi02 476]

RB might be the most overrated skill position in the league. Sure elite guys do it better, but there are DOZENS of backups that could play behind that offensive line and have a valuable fantasy season. You are stuck on Alf. I don't give a sh!t about Alf. I see a starter behind the best offensive line in the game, that only takes 1 injury to come to fruition. Change his name in your head if you have to so that you aren't drafting Alf.

 

There aren't many better situations in the league.

 

 

This.

 

Darren McFadden had three consecutive seasons prior to joining the Cowboys where he was in the same situation.

 

He had a total of 485 carries from 2012-2014. He averaged a robust 3.3 YPC in those 38 total games. That was the second-lowest average among qualified backs behind only Trent Richardson. The dude got benched for MJD.

 

Then he goes to the Cowboys and reels off his third highest YPC average of his career on the most carries of his career.

 

[TheErosion 6]

To say that Alfred Morris has no upside or value is ludicrous.

 

The reason Zeke has so much hype is that JOSEPH RANDLE was a legit fantasy starter for weeks behind that O-Line. amd Zeke seems to have stud talent behind an offensive line that can make anyone fantasy relevant.

[skinsrule05 30]

I'm not blinded by last season. He's in a steady decline since his first season. A season which he had the luxury of running in a pistol read option offense when RG3 was a rookie running wild. I loved Alf. But his situation is over. You want to talk blind? All the folks in here that think any RB on the planet is automatically going to be some stud because of the Dallas line. That's blind.

So Alf did well when the running situation was what you consider a "luxury". You don't think running behind the best OLine in the game could also be a luxury?

 

A good point was made above, you need to forget it is Alf. You are hitting the point of emotional drafting. It is never good when you like someone too much or too little. It makes you lose perspective.

[Kent 228]

So Alf did well when the running situation was what you consider a "luxury". You don't think running behind the best OLine in the game could also be a luxury?

 

A good point was made above, you need to forget it is Alf. You are hitting the point of emotional drafting. It is never good when you like someone too much or too little. It makes you lose perspective.

I'm not emotional in the slightest. I like Alf as a human being and a great late NFL draft success story. I wish him all the best.

 

I'm trying to help the board. This is philanthropic.

[sirensong 111]

 

 

This.

 

Darren McFadden had three consecutive seasons prior to joining the Cowboys where he was in the same situation.

 

He had a total of 485 carries from 2012-2014. He averaged a robust 3.3 YPC in those 38 total games. That was the second-lowest average among qualified backs behind only Trent Richardson. The dude got benched for MJD.

 

Then he goes to the Cowboys and reels off his third highest YPC average of his career on the most carries of his career.

 

 

 

this narrative is highly questionable. someone over on bloggingtheboys did a quantitative analysis, and DMC only averaged 3.4YPC when the cowboys were tied or ahead. IOW, when defenses had to worry about the run, DMC performed right in line with his career numbers.

 

his YPC mushroomed to something like 5.9 in trash time.

[giraldi02 476]

 

 

this narrative is highly questionable. someone over on bloggingtheboys did a quantitative analysis, and DMC only averaged 3.4YPC when the cowboys were tied or ahead. IOW, when defenses had to worry about the run, DMC performed right in line with his career numbers.

 

his YPC mushroomed to something like 5.9 in trash time.

Pro Football Reference splits for last season have McFadden at 3.8 YPC on 72 carries when leading, 4.7 YPC on 80 carries when tied, and 5.0 YPC on 87 rushing attempts trailing.

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/McFaDa00/splits/2015/

 

 

There's also multiple layers to that type of analysis. When you're leading and burning the clock, you have the propensity for averaging less because defenses are playing the run.

 

I am always interested in seeing these types of articles though if you can find a link to it

[IGotWorms 4,063]

I'm not blinded by last season. He's in a steady decline since his first season. A season which he had the luxury of running in a pistol read option offense when RG3 was a rookie running wild. I loved Alf. But his situation is over. You want to talk blind? All the folks in here that think any RB on the planet is automatically going to be some stud because of the Dallas line. That's blind.

Alf's only 27. A little early to be completely washed up, no?

[Cruzer 1,996]

Alf's only 27. A little early to be completely washed up, no?

Anyone who's watched any of his first two games can see he's got fresh legs and an energetic bounce in his step.

[sirensong 111]

Pro Football Reference splits for last season have McFadden at 3.8 YPC on 72 carries when leading, 4.7 YPC on 80 carries when tied, and 5.0 YPC on 87 rushing attempts trailing.

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/McFaDa00/splits/2015/

 

 

There's also multiple layers to that type of analysis. When you're leading and burning the clock, you have the propensity for averaging less because defenses are playing the run.

 

I am always interested in seeing these types of articles though if you can find a link to it

 

 

well, the data are the data, so it looks like i remembered the numbers wrong.

[TBayXXXVII 2,677]

i'm just wondering the general opinion of the board. in dynasty it seems a natural that people will be trading up to get him. however, those guys that seemingly "can't miss" don't always pan out. i can think of ryan mathews and trent richardson as recent players i saw people making big moves to draft in dynasty that either disappointed in year one (or the entire career)

 

I think he'll be the best RB in the NFL for the next 10 years... starting with this one.