Cryptocurrency

[Frozenbeernuts 2,239]

1 minute ago, Horseman said:

I'll just focus on the easy one:

The bold isn't true. In 2018 BTC was down 70% for the year.  For example.

If you're talking about the average per year over it's complete history I'd point you to AMZN and many others.  AMZN beats BTC over it's own history by more than 10 fold.  

If it's neither of those two things above then you are arbitrarily picking your data points.  And past results do not guarantee future results anyway.  Volatility equals risk and with risk comes reward or loss.  You're speculating on what might happen - just read the last two posts between you and Cdub, it's exactly gambling.   

It's the average return for every year. Amazon average return over 26 years is around 70%. Bitcoin average return per year is well over 100%.

That's fine. You're right. Just do yourself a favor and don't look at the bitcoin price these next few years.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,239]

9 minutes ago, Horseman said:

I'll just focus on the easy one:

The bold isn't true. In 2018 BTC was down 70% for the year.  For example.

If you're talking about the average per year over it's complete history I'd point you to AMZN and many others.  AMZN beats BTC over it's own history by more than 10 fold.  

If it's neither of those two things above then you are arbitrarily picking your data points.  And past results do not guarantee future results anyway.  Volatility equals risk and with risk comes reward or loss.  You're speculating on what might happen - just read the last two posts between you and Cdub, it's exactly gambling.   

I will add one thing that you aren't accounting for. It gets over looked. Bitcoin has a capped supply. Don't start on how that can change, because they tried changing the code multiple times with hard forks and those coins are trending toward 0.

Bitcoin is the most scarce asset there is. The block reward gets cut in half every 4 years. 93% of the supply that will ever exist has already been mined.

Plus there is a group of hard core bitcoiners who will not sell. They will use the money p2p and say screw everyone else who doesn't want to take part in the network. Those factors are what really set bitcoin apart. It's a totally new thing that you cannot compare to traditional assets. It has new variables you cannot account for.

Does that guarantee the price will go up? Not at all, but the price of missing out is pretty large. Will you be fine if you don't invest? I believe you will, but the wealthiest people in the world are still always looking for a way to grow their money. There's a reaosn for that, and there is nothing that can produce the returns bitcoin can. This is mostly conjecture on my part. I know none of this will change your mind. Just remember the convo in a few years.

Also, it's never too late to invest. You are thinking of holding onto dollars that can and will be produced infinitely.

[Horseman 2,438]

1 hour ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

It's the average return for every year. Amazon average return over 26 years is around 70%. Bitcoin average return per year is well over 100%.

That's fine. You're right. Just do yourself a favor and don't look at the bitcoin price these next few years.

I think you're missing a 20:1 split in there.  But it doesn't matter.  Point is I wouldn't advise anyone to buy a bunch of AMZN stock today (even though I placed that same bet and won years ago) based on their past performance alone. 

1 hour ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

I will add one thing that you aren't accounting for. It gets over looked. Bitcoin has a capped supply. Don't start on how that can change, because they tried changing the code multiple times with hard forks and those coins are trending toward 0.

Bitcoin is the most scarce asset there is. The block reward gets cut in half every 4 years. 93% of the supply that will ever exist has already been mined.

Plus there is a group of hard core bitcoiners who will not sell. They will use the money p2p and say screw everyone else who doesn't want to take part in the network. Those factors are what really set bitcoin apart. It's a totally new thing that you cannot compare to traditional assets. It has new variables you cannot account for.

Does that guarantee the price will go up? Not at all, but the price of missing out is pretty large. Will you be fine if you don't invest? I believe you will, but the wealthiest people in the world are still always looking for a way to grow their money. There's a reaosn for that, and there is nothing that can produce the returns bitcoin can. This is mostly conjecture on my part. I know none of this will change your mind. Just remember the convo in a few years.

Also, it's never too late to invest. You are thinking of holding onto dollars that can and will be produced infinitely.

I don't know the details of capped/scarcity.  What I do know is there aren't any laws or anything else making people use it.  There isn't anything keeping it from becoming antiquated tomorrow.

"It has variables you cannot account for" and "Price of missing out" do nothing but throw up more red flags for me.

I don't think either of us are just holding onto cash, we're putting it to work for us to try and make more cash.  It's interesting that you seem to discredit the US dollar yet it is the very thing you measure the value of BTC with.  

[nobody 2,655]

Is the point of bitcoin scarcity relative to the printable dollar, that bitcoin is immune to inflation?  Because we just had an inflationary period and bitcoin dropped like a stone.  And it only came back when inflation started ebbing.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,239]

7 hours ago, nobody said:

Is the point of bitcoin scarcity relative to the printable dollar, that bitcoin is immune to inflation?  Because we just had an inflationary period and bitcoin dropped like a stone.  And it only came back when inflation started ebbing.

We use the definition for inflation interchangeably. Inflation of the currency happens when new units are created out of thin air. Then price inflation happens after those units enter the market.

The same thing happens to different things seen as an investment. It's not just bitcoin. But if you think that dollars continually being printed isn't going to continue to devalue the currency vs bitcoin, then just don't buy the asset and gloat when bitcoin goes to zero.

[jonmx 2,429]

12 hours ago, Horseman said:

I think you're missing a 20:1 split in there.  But it doesn't matter.  Point is I wouldn't advise anyone to buy a bunch of AMZN stock today (even though I placed that same bet and won years ago) based on their past performance alone. 

I don't know the details of capped/scarcity.  What I do know is there aren't any laws or anything else making people use it.  There isn't anything keeping it from becoming antiquated tomorrow.

"It has variables you cannot account for" and "Price of missing out" do nothing but throw up more red flags for me.

I don't think either of us are just holding onto cash, we're putting it to work for us to try and make more cash.  It's interesting that you seem to discredit the US dollar yet it is the very thing you measure the value of BTC with.  

 

Fiat currency was the biggest scam ever hoisted on the world by its creators.  It is why every country in the world is chasing an ever increasing pile of debt.   The system is designed so every dollar of interest debt is impossible to retire.  The richest people in the world are not Musk or Gates or the Waltons.   They are the families and descendants of the Banking giants, who like Royalty are kept off any richest lists.   

 

[nobody 2,655]

2 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

We use the definition for inflation interchangeably. Inflation of the currency happens when new units are created out of thin air. Then price inflation happens after those units enter the market.

The same thing happens to different things seen as an investment. It's not just bitcoin. But if you think that dollars continually being printed isn't going to continue to devalue the currency vs bitcoin, then just don't buy the asset and gloat when bitcoin goes to zero.

I'm just saying that it would probably be a good idea to understand what makes your asset's price fluctuate.  And right now, inflation is bitcoin's enemy, and not it's friend.  This is clearly evident over the last inflationary period.

I suspect the reason is that the people who drive the price of Bitcoin are speculators.  And that means they are banking on Bitcoin being the backbone of some sort of cryptocurrency ecosystem sometime in the future.  It's not because they see Bitcoin as an inflation hedge.

 

[Frozenbeernuts 2,239]

1 hour ago, nobody said:

I'm just saying that it would probably be a good idea to understand what makes your asset's price fluctuate.  And right now, inflation is bitcoin's enemy, and not it's friend.  This is clearly evident over the last inflationary period.

I suspect the reason is that the people who drive the price of Bitcoin are speculators.  And that means they are banking on Bitcoin being the backbone of some sort of cryptocurrency ecosystem sometime in the future.  It's not because they see Bitcoin as an inflation hedge.

 

No most people don't see it as such. I don't understand how they miss that part though. Dollar unlimited. Bitcoin finite. Simple

[nobody 2,655]

35 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

No most people don't see it as such. I don't understand how they miss that part though. Dollar unlimited. Bitcoin finite. Simple

Well the implication of that statement is that Bitcoin is a dollar replacement.  Clearly the folks that drive the price of Bitcoin don't see it that way.  

[Frozenbeernuts 2,239]

Bitcoin spot ETFs will begin trading on Thursday. I will laugh to myself when I see more people come out and say they are so rich that they don't need to invest in the best performing asset

 

https://twitter.com/BTCGandalf/status/1744745974533152901?t=9ER8W4we3ZhKkYwRipN0GQ&s=19

[Frozenbeernuts 2,239]

29 minutes ago, nobody said:

Well the implication of that statement is that Bitcoin is a dollar replacement.  Clearly the folks that drive the price of Bitcoin don't see it that way.  

No it's not. Eggs will go up against the dollar forever. They aren't a dollar replacement. Wall Street is about to dump a lot of money into bitcoin. They aren't thinking of it as a replacement, they just want to increase the value of their portfolio. When they realize that the dollar is always going to go down against bitcoin, excluding temporary dips, they will begin to realize that it's at least possible. Not that it matters. What matters is that bitcoin is going to not only preserve buying power, but it's going to grow it better than anything else.

Idk why anyone wouldn't want to increase their buying power

[Cdub100 3,894]

I don't know why you guys try and convince the no-coiners. Let them buy their bonds. Let's stick to talking and building in crypto. We don't need to convince anyone.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,239]

6 hours ago, nobody said:

Well the implication of that statement is that Bitcoin is a dollar replacement.  Clearly the folks that drive the price of Bitcoin don't see it that way.  

Do you think bitcoin is going to go up from here over the next 2 years? If so, how much?

Do you own any bitcoin?

[Frozenbeernuts 2,239]

Someone hacked the SEC Twitter page and said the ETFs haven't been approved.

Well they say it was a hack. I wouldn't be surprised if someone posted the tweet a day early by accident, or it was an inside job to test the waters.

Either way it's entertaining to see all of this unfold before tomorrow's decision

[Frozenbeernuts 2,239]

I guess the SEC used the wording "compromised"

Definitely a major mistake by someone.

[nobody 2,655]

On 1/9/2024 at 8:00 AM, Frozenbeernuts said:

No it's not. Eggs will go up against the dollar forever. They aren't a dollar replacement. Wall Street is about to dump a lot of money into bitcoin. They aren't thinking of it as a replacement, they just want to increase the value of their portfolio. When they realize that the dollar is always going to go down against bitcoin, excluding temporary dips, they will begin to realize that it's at least possible. Not that it matters. What matters is that bitcoin is going to not only preserve buying power, but it's going to grow it better than anything else.

Idk why anyone wouldn't want to increase their buying power

Wait... You said Dollar unlimited.  Bitcoin finite.

If you're not implying a replacement currency, are you saying that anything that has a finite supply should automatically go up in value?

If so, my dumps aren't going to go on forever.  Maybe I should start boxing them up.

[nobody 2,655]

Now you're going to say, "there's no demand for your dumps," and I'm going to ask what drives the demand for Bitcoin.  Should we just skip to that step?

You're kind of saying it's an inflation hedge again, but please don't say finite supply because then we're just going around in circles.

I think you'll do well.  It's luck, but you'll do well.  What's going to hurt you if somehow inflation picks up.  That could be caused by a major war or something like that, but now that we're out of this major inflation cycle, it's open season on speculation.  It's better to be right for the wrong reason than wrong for the wrong reason.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,239]

The SEC Twitter page was indeed hacked. The first thing the hacker posted was just the #btc ticker. They then deleted the tweet and posted an official looking etf approval. Most likely the SEC had made that tweet and saved it to drafts to release today.

Today the ETF will be approved. I think that will mean tomorrow they will begin trading. These ETF controllers are all lowering their fees for a race to the bottom.

Yesterday was a fun day seeing all the memes that were birthed from that screw up. The SEC has sued companies before for not securing their digital identities well enough.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,239]

If bitcoin goes over $100k by next year, will you wish you had bought some?

How about $200k?

$300k?

[nobody 2,655]

46 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

If bitcoin goes over $100k by next year, will you wish you had bought some?

How about $200k?

$300k?

Speaking for myself, sure.  I'd like to own more BTC if it had a 100% increase.  Just like I wish I bought more MasterCard and Chipotle when they ipo'ed or I wish I bought more call options when nividia was $89.  Or I wish I bought more visa when it ipo'ed or more apple or more united health for that matter.

The problem is I'm only willing to put a certain percentage of my portfolio in crypto because I think there's downside risk.  You don't.  So it makes sense for you to put every cent you have in it.

Keep in mind that you've been saying Bitcoin will be over $100k by the end of the year what? The last 4 years?

[Frozenbeernuts 2,239]

35 minutes ago, nobody said:

Speaking for myself, sure.  I'd like to own more BTC if it had a 100% increase.  Just like I wish I bought more MasterCard and Chipotle when they ipo'ed or I wish I bought more call options when nividia was $89.  Or I wish I bought more visa when it ipo'ed or more apple or more united health for that matter.

The problem is I'm only willing to put a certain percentage of my portfolio in crypto because I think there's downside risk.  You don't.  So it makes sense for you to put every cent you have in it.

Keep in mind that you've been saying Bitcoin will be over $100k by the end of the year what? The last 4 years?

Idk what year I started. Probably 2021 when I thought it was going over 100k for sure. It didn't. I was wrong that year. I don't see how we don't achieve that this cycle considering wall street now has a massive financial incentive for the bitcoin price to go up.

These etf applicants are making actual commercials promoting bitcoin that they are going to unleash on the public.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,239]

50 minutes ago, nobody said:

Speaking for myself, sure.  I'd like to own more BTC if it had a 100% increase.  Just like I wish I bought more MasterCard and Chipotle when they ipo'ed or I wish I bought more call options when nividia was $89.  Or I wish I bought more visa when it ipo'ed or more apple or more united health for that matter.

The problem is I'm only willing to put a certain percentage of my portfolio in crypto because I think there's downside risk.  You don't.  So it makes sense for you to put every cent you have in it.

Keep in mind that you've been saying Bitcoin will be over $100k by the end of the year what? The last 4 years?

What do you think is going to happen when: The ETF applicants are making actual commercials promoting bitcoin.

Wall Street has a vested interest in bitcoin number go up.

The bitcoin etfs are destroying the returns of everything else available on wall street.

It's as blatant as it gets. I was wrong in 2021 because short term price predictions are really difficult. I wasn't wrong that bitcoin will continue to go up and up. It will be worth well over $1 million in our life times. Probably multiple millions of dollars.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,239]

The SEC has officially approved all 11 spot ETF applications. This is an epic moment in history and the beginning of a new era.

I will be holding custody of my own bitcoin. I don't trust someone else holding it, but I appreciate how much money it is going to bring in. This will play a large part increasing my buying power. The price isn't spiking, which is a good thing imo. Save the volatility for another day.

Now that the news is out, I would assume people are less skittish to jump in.

[Cdub100 3,894]

41 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

The SEC has officially approved all 11 spot ETF applications. This is an epic moment in history and the beginning of a new era.

I will be holding custody of my own bitcoin. I don't trust someone else holding it, but I appreciate how much money it is going to bring in. This will play a large part increasing my buying power. The price isn't spiking, which is a good thing imo. Save the volatility for another day.

Now that the news is out, I would assume people are less skittish to jump in.

Wen Lambo?

[Frozenbeernuts 2,239]

3 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

Wen Lambo?

Apparently not today. Price is not moving. Which is fine. This is a historic moment. Wall Street will usher in billions of dollars into bitcoin through these funds. I just wish my 401k provider wasn't stuck in ancient times with 0 plans for exposure to bitcoin etfs.

[WhiteWonder 2,723]

On 1/8/2024 at 6:44 PM, Horseman said:

It's interesting that you seem to discredit the US dollar yet it is the very thing you measure the value of BTC with.  

i've made this point about various posters at least 50 times throughout this thread. 

nothing to do with personally liking or disliking bitcoin or crypto as an investment, just one of the more hilarious aspects of the narratives. 

[Cdub100 3,894]

32 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Apparently not today. Price is not moving. Which is fine. This is a historic moment. Wall Street will usher in billions of dollars into bitcoin through these funds. I just wish my 401k provider wasn't stuck in ancient times with 0 plans for exposure to bitcoin etfs.

I'm on record we dump from here. 30s

[Frozenbeernuts 2,239]

36 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

i've made this point about various posters at least 50 times throughout this thread. 

nothing to do with personally liking or disliking bitcoin or crypto as an investment, just one of the more hilarious aspects of the narratives. 

What else are we going to use to gauge an increase in value? Bitcoin to eggs? Houses? Horses? Silicone?

The USD is the most ubiquitous unit of account that exists today. What else would you recommend as a unit of account to compare bitcoin to?

[Frozenbeernuts 2,239]

24 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

I'm on record we dump from here. 30s

I don't think so. I think we might see some volatility, but I doubt we go under 40. Any dip will be very short lived. About to hit $47 right now.

[WhiteWonder 2,723]

4 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

What else are we going to use to gauge an increase in value? Bitcoin to eggs? Houses? Horses? Silicone?

The USD is the most ubiquitous unit of account that exists today. What else would you recommend as a unit of account to compare bitcoin to?

lol. Yes, we chart the value of btc relative to usd..., naturally...

but I think my point has always been that the people who think  it's replacing fiat and going to become the new standard,  shouldn't really need to mention its value at all, relative to anything. You could stick to talking about where its being adopted, why it's valuable in and of itself, etc. I mean, after all, you're just continuing to accumulate until fiat is dead and your wealth is determined by the amount of btc you have, right?

the thing is, most people investing in bitcoin or crypto are looking to increase their wealth in terms of USD, like any other investment opportunity. 

[nobody 2,655]

1 hour ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Apparently not today. Price is not moving. Which is fine. This is a historic moment. Wall Street will usher in billions of dollars into bitcoin through these funds. I just wish my 401k provider wasn't stuck in ancient times with 0 plans for exposure to bitcoin etfs.

You can roll some of that into a self-directed IRA.  You should call them up.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,239]

35 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

lol. Yes, we chart the value of btc relative to usd..., naturally...

but I think my point has always been that the people who think  it's replacing fiat and going to become the new standard,  shouldn't really need to mention its value at all, relative to anything. You could stick to talking about where its being adopted, why it's valuable in and of itself, etc. I mean, after all, you're just continuing to accumulate until fiat is dead and your wealth is determined by the amount of btc you have, right?

the thing is, most people investing in bitcoin or crypto are looking to increase their wealth in terms of USD, like any other investment opportunity. 

I'm looking to increase my buying power period. Using usd as a measure is the only way I know how to do that for now. Maybe eventually things get priced in bitcoin

The thing about the usd is that all fiat currencies fail eventually. Maybe the dollar is super special and the US can keep it going? I know that unfunded liabilities are over $170 trillion. If it happens it won't be for a while. Bitcoin can't be used as cash unless an L2 gets figured out. Lightning isn't the answer I thought it would be as of now.

 

One thing I do know is that the bitcoin usd pairing is going to get ridiculous. Like I said, we are going to see bitcoin be worth multiple millions of usd per dollar. People are going to want bitcoin to preserve their wealth over dollars. Plus you can use bitcoin like money.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,239]

24 minutes ago, nobody said:

You can roll some of that into a self-directed IRA.  You should call them up.

The 401k is through my hall. I don't think I can move it like that

[Horseman 2,438]

57 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

The 401k is through my hall. I don't think I can move it like that

Doesn't matter who it's through, its the institution that holds it: Fidelity, Wells Fargo, some rinky dink credit union, whoever.  They would know if they are set up for self directed 401K or not.  I have 100% of my 401K in a self directed brokerage account.  Contributions go right into the brokerage account.  No fuss no muss. 

[Frozenbeernuts 2,239]

Ok, wall street is officially advocating for bitcoin. BlackRock has a bunch of pro bitcoin bullet points now. This is interesting to witness.

What will dwarf this move is when nation states start buying up bitcoin. Some may even print money to trade for bitcoin. I know I would if I had access to the printer.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,239]

The etf approval was priced in perfectly it seems. Let's see how the inflows play out before the halving.

[Alias Detective 1,394]

On 1/8/2024 at 2:14 PM, Alias Detective said:

Markets a well ahead of their time.  The ETF adoption has already been built into the price.  It likely will hover, drop or tank from here.

Hello

[Alias Detective 1,394]

On 1/8/2024 at 2:19 PM, Frozenbeernuts said:

I think that you fail to realize how limited the supply of bitcoin is. The ETFs haven't even bought bitcoin yet. Their inflows are still 0. How is the price not going to move up when millions, possibly billions flow in?

Maybe the price dips after they are approved. It will be a very short lived dip.

Ath before the halving is more likely than any prolonged or significant dip.

I hope you are being a contrarian just so you can look smart in the rare chance you are right, rather than using flawed logic to make a definitive stance like this

Shrugs 

[Cdub100 3,894]

On 1/10/2024 at 5:40 PM, Cdub100 said:

I'm on record we dump from here. 30s

I wish I wasn't a coward and sold so I could rebuy. I just sit here with my bags 

[Frozenbeernuts 2,239]

2 hours ago, Alias Detective said:

Shrugs 

You were right. The news was definitely priced in. Once the market saw the demand for spot bitcoin etfs wasn't there off the bat, it sold off. It can change quickly, and we have the halving in a few months. Still the halving isn't a massive supply shock with 1.8-2 million coins still available on exchanges.