Rodgers and Brady going early, in the 1st or early 2nd

[dschddny 0]

I normally do the "right thing" and wait on QB and am not tempted to draft one of the top QB's way too early. This year I'm thinking differently though, considering taking ARod or Brady early as I expect big years from both (especially Brady actually).

 

Having said that, I've done some live mocks over the past week and it seems that both are ALWAYS drafted either in the 1st or in the early 2nd at the latest. Is this reality? Are people valuing them highly and taking them this early in real drafts or is this just a result of people "playing around" in mock drafts?

[Kent 228]

I'd take either in the first. But I'm in a QB friendly league. Depends on your format.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

Hard to say. QB values always seem to be one of the biggest league by league trend. Ours for example will likely not start taking QBs until the 4th or 5th and the majority will go a couple rounds after. When I played in work league's with less serious guys, they would start coming off mid first.

 

Scoring format is a huge component to this, but I have only taken a QB early 1 time. That was Luck 2 years ago when he was trash/hurt. Your team, your call at the end of the day.

[thePRO 78]

Gotta a $$$ league that awards a point per completion. Drafted Brees finished with 811 points.

 

Rodgers and Brees are tempting in this PPR league, but I'm gonna try and load up on RBs and WRs and get Cousins a little late. Just worried about the injury to Reed and change in WRs. Cousins got 700 in this league last year. 4th highest.

[Hawkeye21 1,855]

What mock draft site are you using where they are going in the first round? Almost every one that I've done has Rodgers going around the round 2-3 turn and then Brady towards the end of the 3rd.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

If your league is standard scoring, it's very simple... if you have a 2 QB league (or the option to start 2), you and everyone else will be taking all the good ones in the first 2 rounds. If your league starts 1 QB, you wait until there is no RB, WR, or TE that you want - then draft your QB.

 

The variations are based on scoring... though not much. If you have a performance league that gives bonuses to distance, then you'd target the gunslingers a bit earlier and maybe a couple rounds earlier. For example, I wouldn't consider any QB until the 8th round. If I were in a league I just described, then I'd probably look to take one in the 5th or 6th.

[Phil Simms 11 127]

6 point passing TD - QB goes early starting round 1/2. After the top go off the board you have many people waiting until late

 

I play in 4 pt passing and QB goes later in that one.

[Hawkeye21 1,855]

6 point passing TD - QB goes early starting round 1/2. After the top go off the board you have many people waiting until late

 

I play in 4 pt passing and QB goes later in that one.

 

I really don't see 6 point passing TDs affecting where QBs should go. I know it separates the QBs a little more but not enough for me to change my draft strategy.

[Phil Simms 11 127]

 

I really don't see 6 point passing TDs affecting where QBs should go. I know it separates the QBs a little more but not enough for me to change my draft strategy.

 

It definitely changes my draft strategy. And besides going from 6 to 4 pt pass TD making Qbs less important overall it also increases slightly the value of rushing QBs.

 

I have 1 league of each, i prefer 6 point passing.

[Hawkeye21 1,855]

Out of curiosity I changed the scoring from 4 points per passing TD to 6 points on my spreadsheet and it did move about 4 QBs. Nothing significant though and not enough for me to change what round I'd draft them in.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

Out of curiosity I changed the scoring from 4 points per passing TD to 6 points on my spreadsheet and it did move about 4 QBs. Nothing significant though and not enough for me to change what round I'd draft them in.

 

This is how I see it as well. I might consider Brady a lot sooner than I would have normally, but he's the only one. Even still, I wouldn't go any higher than the 4th round.

[Bier Meister 1,514]

What mock draft site are you using where they are going in the first round? Almost every one that I've done has Rodgers going around the round 2-3 turn and then Brady towards the end of the 3rd.

 

this.

 

are you using a scoring system that is friendly to qb's? even so, that is high.

 

you need to weigh:

 

rogers/brady + potential 2nd round rb/wr + potential 3rd rd wr/rb

 

vs.

 

potential qb (rounds 3-7: brees/luck/cousins/ryan/roeth) + 1st rd rb/wr + 2nd rd wr/rb

 

start mocking and you will see much more qb depth than rb and wr depth this year.

[Brutal Brutus 182]

 

this.

 

are you using a scoring system that is friendly to qb's? even so, that is high.

 

you need to weigh:

 

rogers/brady + potential 2nd round rb/wr + potential 3rd rd wr/rb

 

vs.

 

potential qb (rounds 3-7: brees/luck/cousins/ryan/roeth) + 1st rd rb/wr + 2nd rd wr/rb

 

start mocking and you will see much more qb depth than rb and wr depth this year.

I wouldn't take them first or early second but I see a lot of WR depth after the top ones are off the board. WR 2's,3's and 4's are all clumped together for me, as are a lot of RB 2/3's. I can see a scenario, where I'm staring at middling WR and RB 2's and Brady, and going with the locked in 25 point per game QB.

[Bier Meister 1,514]

I wouldn't take them first or early second but I see a lot of WR depth after the top ones are off the board. WR 2's,3's and 4's are all clumped together for me, as are a lot of RB 2/3's. I can see a scenario, where I'm staring at middling WR and RB 2's and Brady, and going with the locked in 25 point per game QB.

 

i see more wr depth than rb, but as you said they are enmeshed.

 

as the nfl is becoming much more qb driven, we are seeing higher production so imo, it is a higher priority to grab those rare rbs and wrs, where you can recover at qb later.

[cousinal111 57]

Haven't been in a draft where either went any higher than late 2nd.

[Brutal Brutus 182]

 

i see more wr depth than rb, but as you said they are enmeshed.

 

as the nfl is becoming much more qb driven, we are seeing higher production so imo, it is a higher priority to grab those rare rbs and wrs, where you can recover at qb later.

 

Based on where Brady is going, I would rather have him than taking a shaky or unproven WR, or RB. At least, I'll solve a question mark in my lineup, which frees me up to take more RB's and WR's later. Since the running back position is in large part a numbers game, meaning taking as many as I can, and WR has a very slow decline after the top handful, taking a top QB may be the best thing you can do. If you land Allen Robinson, or Joe Mixon instead of Brady, did you definitively solve a hole at RB or WR? Not really imo, as both have question marks going into the season. If I land Brady not only do I have an advantage over just about all other teams at QB, the drop off from Mixon to a guy like Coleman, or Robinson to T. Hill, isn't all that great. I limit my upside a bit in some cases, but my advantage in QB mitigates that potential drop off. Also, when other teams are taking QB's in the middle rounds, I can take an upside RB, and potentially two if they feel like they need to take two QB's and play match ups.

 

QB is deep, and the drop off from QB-1 to QB-12, isn't tremendous most weeks. The problem is, that assumes you have a QB that is always in the top 12. It can be hard to find that consistency when waiting until the middle rounds, as many of those QB's will put as more 15 and under games as they do 25 and over.

[Bier Meister 1,514]

You are illustrating my point. I would rather have a Zeke/diggs/ brees than a brady/diggs/Ingram or fournette

[Brutal Brutus 182]

You are illustrating my point. I would rather have a Zeke/diggs/ brees than a brady/diggs/Ingram or fournette

Yeah, I probably didn't need to quote your post as I was just expanding on my previous post more than anything. We're saying close to the same thing I think.

[Bier Meister 1,514]

yes. i am doing a quick mock as i type...... 6th spot, 12 owners, ppr

 

round 1 options (i took mccoy): julio, evans, aj green, mccoy, gordon, freeman, rodgers, brady

 

round 2 options (i took dez): fournette, crowell, miller, hilton, dez, DT, baldwin, hopkins, rodgers, brady

 

round 3 options (i took kelce): crowell, miller, mccaffrey, DT, allen, robinson, brady, brees, kelce, olsen, reed, graham

 

round 4 options (i took graham): crowell, hyde, mixon, tate, jeffery, sanders, brady, brees, etc, graham, rudolph

 

in the 4th i took graham over brady because of 1.5 ppr for te, and i am ok taking the next best qb in the 5th, which turns out to be brees.

 

 

 

edit: jumping on qb in the 1st really sets you back significantly at rb because of the lack of depth, where as there is a big drop off after the 1st 6 or 7 rbs......