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weepaws

Hi Guru

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What do you think of J Kelley who was drafted by the Chargers, his he better then J Jackson, and if so, how much involvement do you think he might have this next season. 

Thank you Guru, I appreciate your insight and thoughts about ff.  

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No problem. Straight from the horse's mouth: 

With that said, I expect a much more run-heavy approach for the Chargers this season - at least as long as Taylor is the quarterback anyway. Eleker saw 224 touches last year. I'd be surprised if he gets many more this year (maybe 240 ... right at 15 per game). Kelley probably has the advantage in terms of goal-line work since he's got about 20 pounds on the other backs, but I'm not sure it's going to be that easy either (maybe he splits GL work with Ekeler).

It's easy to forget it wasn't so long ago that Jackson was making a push to share work with Ekeler. His biggest problem has been staying healthy (maybe b/c he was overworked at Northwestern?). If I had to guess at the moment, I would project something like a 40-25-15 split (Ekeler-Kelley-Jackson) between the backs with Tyrod handling most of the other carries. On passing downs, I expect Ekeler to get at least 75 percent of those snaps (with Jackson getting most of the rest). Kelley could contribute on passing downs too, but Ekeler and Jackson are pretty good at it.

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Thank you. 

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I'm not the guru, as I bow down to his greatness. But I'd like to chime in, because this really is my favorite time of year. I think i like this better than the games itself LOL.

I didn't really see anything in Kelley that made me take notice. I saw him on some sleeper lists, so I took a second look, and still felt the same. I would much rather take the chance on Jackson, because I've seen him be productive already.

 

 

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Kelley had a good Senior Bowl week and a really good showing in that game.  105 yards on 15 carries. I'm still not sure why scouts and executives put so much emphasis on the Senior Bowl week and game, I just know that they do. Kelley is also seen as being excellent in Pass-Pro. I would wager that Justin Jackson's days are numbered, not necessarily this season.

 

 

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17 hours ago, weepaws said:

What do you think of J Kelley who was drafted by the Chargers, his he better then J Jackson, and if so, how much involvement do you think he might have this next season. 

Thank you Guru, I appreciate your insight and thoughts about ff.  

My 2 cents:  if the Chargers lack an effective passing game, then it will not matter who the RBs are. They will struggle against defenses that stack against the run.  Do you have confidence in the Chargers pass offense?

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Thanks everyone I appreciate the input. 

No I don’t have any respect for the Chargers passing with Taylor leading the charge. 

But in a non ppr 14 team league, I’m always digging for a some good late draft picks , and usually rb.  

But great point about the Chargers passing game, plus like the Guru said, Taylor we’ll run the ball also.  

 

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4 hours ago, jrokh said:

Kelley had a good Senior Bowl week and a really good showing in that game.  105 yards on 15 carries. I'm still not sure why scouts and executives put so much emphasis on the Senior Bowl week and game, I just know that they do. Kelley is also seen as being excellent in Pass-Pro. I would wager that Justin Jackson's days are numbered, not necessarily this season.

 

 

Only guessing, but I can see an argument based on common competition.  When players play in their games, they're restrained by their coaching, teammates, and game plan.  A player on Rutgers may look "ok" in Rutgers games.  But, when he gets to the Senior Bowl, he's playing alongside a much better group of players and a high level of competition.  If he looks really good in that environment, why wouldn't you think a GM/Scout would say 'you know, this guy may be better than what his tape shows because Rutgers really stinks'.

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7 hours ago, jrokh said:

Kelley had a good Senior Bowl week and a really good showing in that game.  105 yards on 15 carries. I'm still not sure why scouts and executives put so much emphasis on the Senior Bowl week and game, I just know that they do. Kelley is also seen as being excellent in Pass-Pro. I would wager that Justin Jackson's days are numbered, not necessarily this season.

 

 

 

3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Only guessing, but I can see an argument based on common competition.  When players play in their games, they're restrained by their coaching, teammates, and game plan.  A player on Rutgers may look "ok" in Rutgers games.  But, when he gets to the Senior Bowl, he's playing alongside a much better group of players and a high level of competition.  If he looks really good in that environment, why wouldn't you think a GM/Scout would say 'you know, this guy may be better than what his tape shows because Rutgers really stinks'.

TBayXXXVII is pretty much on the right track. Evaluators like an apples-to-apples comparison of prospects. Sure, Alabama vs. Georgia/LSU gives everyone a good look at 20-plus draftable prospects, but it accounts for about 10 percent of the draft class and may not highlight a prospect's strengths/weaknesses. (It'd also be crazy to base an evaluation off of one game too.) Evaluators like the Senior Bowl because they can see how quickly a prospect learns and practices in addition to how he looks against similar, pro-ready competition. There is no more "he was going against Rutgers" or "he did that against a D2 team."

Senior Bowl week helps remove most of the bias that tends to go along with being a "product of the system" too as all the players are asked to embrace whatever pro staff is doing the coaching. Javon Kinlaw was almost unblockable in 1-on-1s during practice this year. When he's making five draftable linemen look bad consistently, it tells you something. I think he pulled out due to injury two days before the game, but he'd already proven by that point he was what his tape said he was.

I could be wrong, but I think football is about the only major team sport in which evaluators don't get to see the bulk of prospects compete against each other. The NBA has a combine where everyone who attends will compete, while baseball is more of skills-based evaluation (strike zone awareness, arm strength, speed, etc.). The Senior Bowl helps correct that "oversight" a bit.

The other big deal? Sample size. The best college teams play about 15 games. The worst basketball teams usually play about 30 games and baseball around 40, while the best ones play around 40 and 50, respectively.

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10 hours ago, Kopy said:

I'm not the guru, as I bow down to his greatness. But I'd like to chime in, because this really is my favorite time of year. I think i like this better than the games itself LOL.

I didn't really see anything in Kelley that made me take notice. I saw him on some sleeper lists, so I took a second look, and still felt the same. I would much rather take the chance on Jackson, because I've seen him be productive already.

 

 

I agree, when it comes to ff, this is my favorite time also, I really enjoy getting ready for the draft.  

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Hi Guru, I think M Pittman could be the second best rookie ff producer this next season, what do you think about him going into this next season? 

Thank you Sir. 

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5 hours ago, weepaws said:

Hi Guru, I think M Pittman could be the second best rookie ff producer this next season, what do you think about him going into this next season? 

Thank you Sir. 

Love him. I get the sense he'll be on about half of my teams this year.

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Thank you. 

Yeah im hoping to land him on my team this season.  

 

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Hello Guru, always appreciate your thoughts an evaluations, so here is a tough situation Ive been struggling with.

The Jags are clearly not happy with the current Fournette situation at RB, seems they are actively pursuing moving in a different direction.

Looking over their roster and RB depth is a challenge to interpret who might be the next man up, but it could be FF gold if we guess correctly, and I would imagine all on waivers in most leagues.

How would you rank the three rooks

Tavien Feaster

James Robinson

Nathan Cottrel

or is Armstead the clear front runner if the Jags do trade Fournette?

Thank you

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6 hours ago, typhus said:

Hello Guru, always appreciate your thoughts an evaluations, so here is a tough situation Ive been struggling with.

The Jags are clearly not happy with the current Fournette situation at RB, seems they are actively pursuing moving in a different direction.

Looking over their roster and RB depth is a challenge to interpret who might be the next man up, but it could be FF gold if we guess correctly, and I would imagine all on waivers in most leagues.

How would you rank the three rooks

Tavien Feaster

James Robinson

Nathan Cottrel

or is Armstead the clear front runner if the Jags do trade Fournette?

Thank you

Other than Fournette, the Jags' RB to own is Chris Thompson, at least in PPR scoring.  Jay Gruden should put him right back to work in the same role he had for Gruden in Washington.  The only question is whether or not Thompson can stay healthy for more than 8 games.

I'll let Guru rank the rooks; Axe Elf typically only concerns himself with fantasy-relevant players.

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10 hours ago, weepaws said:

Thank you. 

Yeah im hoping to land him on my team this season.  

 

My #4 WR. He's in my love them, no questions asked category. 

 

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6 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Other than Fournette, the Jags' RB to own is Chris Thompson, at least in PPR scoring.  Jay Gruden should put him right back to work in the same role he had for Gruden in Washington.  The only question is whether or not Thompson can stay healthy for more than 8 games.

I'll let Guru rank the rooks; Axe Elf typically only concerns himself with fantasy-relevant players.

I agree with elf. If it's a PPR redraft league, grab Thompson. If it's a dynasty, keeper league. The future isn't currently on the roster.

I would pay attention to the supplemental draft this year. It's VERY POSSIBLE the future could be had in july. I think the supplemental draft might be very juicy this year given the world's current situation.

 

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13 hours ago, typhus said:

Hello Guru, always appreciate your thoughts an evaluations, so here is a tough situation Ive been struggling with.

The Jags are clearly not happy with the current Fournette situation at RB, seems they are actively pursuing moving in a different direction.

Looking over their roster and RB depth is a challenge to interpret who might be the next man up, but it could be FF gold if we guess correctly, and I would imagine all on waivers in most leagues.

How would you rank the three rooks

Tavien Feaster

James Robinson

Nathan Cottrel

or is Armstead the clear front runner if the Jags do trade Fournette?

Thank you

Thanks for the kind words.

As much as it pains me to agree with the AxeElf 😀, I think Thompson is the best Jaguars RB to target for standalone value after LF.

With that said, Armstead appears to be the clear frontrunner in terms of becoming something resembling a featured back if LF gets traded or injured. I have seen multiple sources talk about how much the coaches love him. (Take that for what it's worth.) I personally like Robinson the most of the three guys you mentioned, but I think Ozigbo will hold all of them off for RB3 duties if the competition is a fair and balanced one going in.

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On 5/7/2020 at 10:58 AM, Kopy said:

I'm not the guru, as I bow down to his greatness. But I'd like to chime in, because this really is my favorite time of year. I think i like this better than the games itself LOL.

I didn't really see anything in Kelley that made me take notice. I saw him on some sleeper lists, so I took a second look, and still felt the same. I would much rather take the chance on Jackson, because I've seen him be productive already.

 

 

Even before your assessment of Jackson and the Chargers' RB situation, it was clear you had a good eye for talent. 😎

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8 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

Thanks for the kind words.

As much as it pains me to agree with the AxeElf 😀, I think Thompson is the best Jaguars RB to target for standalone value after LF.

With that said, Armstead appears to be the clear frontrunner in terms of becoming something resembling a featured back if LF gets traded or injured. I have seen multiple sources talk about how much the coaches love him. (Take that for what it's worth.) I personally like Robinson the most of the three guys you mentioned, but I think Ozigbo will hold all of them off for RB3 duties if the competition is a fair and balanced one going in.

Even if it’s a non ppr league? 

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I tend to assume PPR unless otherwise noted. I would probably lean toward Armstead in standard just because Thompson's 40-50 catch upside gets really minimized in those leagues, especially when you factor in how prone he is injury.

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Thanks, yeah I was thinking the same in my non ppr.  

Also Guru I was wondering what you know about S Miller of the Bucs, from what you know, how do you see him fitting into the Bucs offense this next season with the GOAT at Qb?  

Thanks once again, I do appreciate your input.  

 

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8 hours ago, weepaws said:

what you know about S Miller of the Bucs

Scotty Miller will be the 3rd-4th WR behind Evans, Godwin, and possibly Watson.  Let's say he's #3.  Then let's say that only two of the Bucs' three TEs are fantasy relevant, and Brady will probly look for a RB dumpoff from time to time as well.

So best case scenario, Miller is Brady's 6th option; but very possibly 7th or 8th.

So fantasy irrelevance, basically.

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21 hours ago, weepaws said:

Also Guru I was wondering what you know about S Miller of the Bucs, from what you know, how do you see him fitting into the Bucs offense this next season with the GOAT at Qb?  

Small and speedy.

I'm not very high on Miller's long-term upside in Tampa. Watson is a better stash IMO, and I'd be surprised if Tyler Johnson isn't at least sharing WR3 duties by the end of the season. With that said, I'm not sure there's going to be enough crumbs left for a third WR in this offense once you figure split roughly 180 catches between Evans and Godwin, assume at least another 70-80 (and that's probably on the low end) to Gronk/Howard/Brate and another 50 or so to the running backs (again, probably on the low end). Even if we assume Miller comes out of the WR3 pack, I don't think we can assume he won't share a few of those targets with Watson and Johnson.

Going a bit deeper, I have to believe Tampa will run more two-tight sets this year. Even if that's not the case, it's probably too much to ask him to work anywhere outside of the slot consistently at 5-11 and 175 pounds. Since Godwin is the primary slot, that further reduces his chances of making an impact.

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Thanks Guru I appreciate your help. 

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Guru - Two questions for you.

1.) Is there anyone that you were very high on predraft, that fell deep in the draft? And are you still behind them, draft round be damned?

2.) Which RB would you take a flier on for future fantasy production. Who knows what kind of year this is gonna be, so let's say 2021 and beyond. 

Anthony McFarland - Pittsburgh Steelers or Eno Benjamin - Arizona Cardinals 

And thanks again for everything you do here. Your dynasty content is the best part of this site for me. (Well, this and the mange board hilarity of course.)

 

 

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9 hours ago, Kopy said:

Guru - Two questions for you.

1.) Is there anyone that you were very high on predraft, that fell deep in the draft? And are you still behind them, draft round be damned?

2.) Which RB would you take a flier on for future fantasy production. Who knows what kind of year this is gonna be, so let's say 2021 and beyond. 

Anthony McFarland - Pittsburgh Steelers or Eno Benjamin - Arizona Cardinals 

And thanks again for everything you do here. Your dynasty content is the best part of this site for me. (Well, this and the mange board hilarity of course.)

 

 

You got it. Dynasty is my favorite format now. I just wish I could find some of these dynasty auctions I keep hearing about. I'm definitely looking to get into more dynasty leagues (high-stakes) this summer.

1) I feel like there's a lot more of the opposite kind of player you're asking for (players that went in the first three rounds that caused me to lose a bit of interest), but Benjamin is one player I cannot believe lasted as long as he did. I'm not sure he can beat out Chase Edmonds anytime soon, but maybe they see enough from Edmonds and Benjamin to not pay big bucks to Drake?

2) I guess Benjamin would be the answer to this question as well. I don't think McFarland is a disciplined enough runner (yet) to become the next bell cow for the Steelers, but I do think he is a better option than Samuels or Snell if the Steelers don't extend Conner.

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Do you think of Conner was to go down once again this next season, that McFarland would be the next Up, this season? 

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8 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Do you think of Conner was to go down once again this next season, that McFarland would be the next Up, this season? 

 

I think McFarland is the best candidate and certainly the most explosive.

With that said, his injury history and ball security issues are problematic. He also has a tendency to bounce a lot of runs. You can get away with that on occasion with 4.44 speed much more often in college than in the NFL. If he doesn't learn to take what he's given more often, he'll probably do no better than split carries. I think Samuels would get the bulk of passing-down work in that scenario.

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Thank you. 

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Hello Guru, I have another question for you. 

With Rivers as the Colts Qb this season, what do you think about Te J Doyle, I think based on Rivers history of using his Te often that Doyle could have a top ten season in a non ppr league , plus no Ebron, what do you think? 

Thank you sir, I always appreciate your insite. 

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21 hours ago, weepaws said:

Hello Guru, I have another question for you. 

With Rivers as the Colts Qb this season, what do you think about Te J Doyle, I think based on Rivers history of using his Te often that Doyle could have a top ten season in a non ppr league , plus no Ebron, what do you think? 

Thank you sir, I always appreciate your insite. 

I think there is a double plus in that Rivers has a history of targeting TEs and Frank Reich seems to love the position too. However, I don't think it's as simple as Rivers loves TEs, so the starter is guaranteed 60 catches. Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry are significantly more talented than Doyle, and it could be argued Doyle is breaking down. The team also likes Mo Alie-Cox.

Looking past all of that, I think Hilton-Pittman-Campbell will make for a pretty nice trio, plus Hines could push for 50 or so catches. I guess I'm saying is that while it wouldn't surprise me if Doyle was a top 10 TE this year, I'd bet against it. Without having started my usual process that leads to my projections (so off the top of my head basically), I'd set his ceiling as something like 52 catches, 550 yards and six TDs. That would have made him TE10 last year.

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Ok thank you. 

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Hey weepaws.

You looking for an all Colts fantasy roster?

LOL :lol:

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4 hours ago, Kopy said:

Hey weepaws.

You looking for an all Colts fantasy roster?

LOL :lol:

Lol it sure does seem like it.  

You know there always seems to be a team or a few that I just have a hard time believing what I feel about them, so I come here to the experts like yourself , I always appreciate everyone help, it sure has been good to me. 

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Now it’s the Bears.  

Mr Guru, in a non ppr 14 teamer , based on WRs only, how would you rank Robinson. 

Looks like he was a low wr1 last season, but I just can’t rank him at that level, I’m thinking more like a mid wr2, based on the discomfort of the Qb situation, thank you sir. 

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2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Now it’s the Bears.  

Mr Guru, in a non ppr 14 teamer , based on WRs only, how would you rank Robinson. 

Looks like he was a low wr1 last season, but I just can’t rank him at that level, I’m thinking more like a mid wr2, based on the discomfort of the Qb situation, thank you sir. 

I'll let Guru do the rankings, but let me break down those "low-end WR1" numbers a little.

In non-ppr scoring, Robinson was inconsistent AF.  He scored 109.6 of his 156.9 fantasy points in 7 games (with four of his seven TDs on the season coming in 2 games).  That means that in the other 9 games, Robinson averaged 5.3 fantasy points per game.

Along with Anthony Miller entering his third season, the Bears signed Ted Ginn, Jr., and Jimmy Graham in the offseason, and drafted Cole Kmet in the 2nd round--so if anything, there should be fewer big games for Robinson to pump up his season stats.

Fantasy Football Calculator has Robinson coming off the board in the 5th round as the 26th WR taken in 14-team non-PPR leagues, and that's probly about right.

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Is that the same Fantasy Football Calculator that has M Thomas ranked as the 7th best wr in a non ppr 14 team league? 

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Is that the same Fantasy Football Calculator that has M Thomas ranked as the 7th best wr in a non ppr 14 team league? 

No.

The Fantasy Football Calculator that I'm referencing does not rank players.  It only reports the Average Draft Position of players over thousands of mock drafts.

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7 hours ago, weepaws said:

Now it’s the Bears.  

Mr Guru, in a non ppr 14 teamer , based on WRs only, how would you rank Robinson. 

Looks like he was a low wr1 last season, but I just can’t rank him at that level, I’m thinking more like a mid wr2, based on the discomfort of the Qb situation, thank you sir. 

You're going to get me to commit to a quarter of the league before I start actually doing the projections 😂  Just kidding, I know you're not going to hold me to things I say in May when September rolls around.

It's a tough question, but I can get behind Robinson as a low-end WR1 in a 14-teamer since I'd be comfortable with him as a high-end WR2 in 12-teamers. (Obviously prefer him as a WR2 though.) Right about the same time Nagy started using Mitch more in the running game was about the same time Robinson started rolling. Getting Taylor Gabriel out of the picture helped too. I think if I knew in advance Mitch was going to be the starter all year long in 2020, I'd probably go with mid-to-low WR2 for Robinson in non-PPR.

However, I do think Foles can be a slight upgrade for everyone in this offense if Nagy doesn't use (or want to use) Mitch as he did late in the season. I don't think we saw anything close to the best Foles can offer in 2019, but I also don't think he's the answer. I don't see Graham being much of a drain for obvious reasons and I don't think Kmet is going to go crazy as a rookie either. Ultimately, I think Robinson comes back down to earth in the 80-catch range as Miller takes another step forward, but another 1,000 yards and 6-7 scores is still very much doable.

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