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Bucs sign Lesean McCoy

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10 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I'm only referring to these two specific RB's and other guys like Mostert or the rest of the RB field.  I don't think Scott, Clement, or any other RB will take many touches away from Sanders.  I also think the Eagles are going to increase there passing game involving RB's.  Their WR's aren't healthy/reliable.  I can see Scott and Clement getting a bump in the passing game in lieu of crappy WR's while Sanders stays the same.  I think Sanders has a shot at 1700+ total yards and 10+ TD's and be a top 7 RB this year.  I don't think Jones will be that high.  I see Jones at around 1500 yards and 8 TD's and being a high RB2... somewhere around RB15.  I think what will separate the two will be the result of the receptions and not so much the receptions themselves.  I can see both of them around 1200 yards rushing with 8 TD's, but I think Sanders has twice as many receptions leading to twice as many yards and more TD.

No problem thanks. 

I think Sanders won’t reach the 50 rec mark, and not based on his talent, but based on Scott’s ability to produce in the passing game. 

I do think Sanders will be a top ten non ppr rb, I’ve even posted that news, even with lower rec numbers, The scariest part about Sanders is his own coach, he doesn’t seem to really want to have a true rb@. So that’s why I see Scott and Clement being quiet involved in the passing game. 

As for R Jones, I’ve posted that I like him a lot as a flex player, so a rb3. I can see him as high as a low rb2. 

Lots of other Rbs and tes and two darn good WRs around, I think Jones will reach at least 1000 plus rush yards, but he won’t exceed 1499 total yards, I think he’ll be around 1200 total on the top side, he’s not going to be much of a contributor in the passing , that I once posted I thought he would be. And who’s going to get the goal line work, I’m not sure it’ll be Jones. 

Hey thanks really appreciate your comments and replies. 

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9 hours ago, Matt Mueller said:

The only reason I brought  up Sanders vs RoJo is that I was actually really suprised that only 20 catches and 200 yards seperated their finishes last year.

 

Same number of tds 6.  Same number of rushing attempts.

 

Certainly Sanders came on late in the year and his 2nd half split is much better than his total season but so did Rojo to a degree.

 

My basic point is that everyone seems to love Sanders a 23 year old rb on a good team who performed pretty well.

 

Well Rojo's numbers, 23 himself, look pretty similar.  

Sorry I wasn’t trying to make fun at your post, I appreciate your post, I like those comparisons, I always find them interesting. 

Also your right, they where very close in production, for me I truly see a rb1 in Sanders , and I think in ff that he can produce as a top ten rb in non ppr 

I don’t think Jones as the over all talent to do that, nor do I think he’ll be given the opportunity. 

Thanks. 

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9 hours ago, Matt Mueller said:

Ronald Jones last 8 games of the season.    Rojo had 10 plus carries in 6 of 8 games.      Had 23 receptions.   

For us non ppr owners. 

Jones last eight games, he scored 66 ff points and avg 4:0 per att and scored 3 tds, and 5 of those eight games he avg less than 3.4 yards per att five times. 

Sanders last eight games , he scored 95 non ppr ff points, avg 4.6 yards per att, and scored 4 tds, and only one of those eight game did he avg less then 3.4 yards per att.  

Thanks. 

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7 hours ago, Matt Mueller said:

Why does everyone think Ronald Jones is pedestrian?  

Ekler averaged 4.2 YPC and lead the league with 10.8 YPR among running backs.

 

Ronald Jones averaged 4.2 YPC and had 10. YPR among running backs.

 

The league leaders of YPR among running backs in 2019 were

Ekler 10.8 

David Johson 10.3

Miles Sanders 10.2

Ronald Jones 10.0

Dalvin Cook 9.8  

Aron Jones 9.7

Duke Johnson 9.3

Can I ask you a question, what do you mean pedestrian? 

How low of a ranking would that be? 

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8 hours ago, AxeElf said:

I figured you would probly quibble about that.  Ok, I'll even grant you the point.  When they needed to get a yard or two, though (i.e., in goalline situations), they still turned to Barber a lot, but yeah, in overall usage, Ronald Jones did manage to just edge out a premier talent like Peyton Barber by the end of his second season.

Next stop, 20+ touches per game!

A lot?  Barber had 27 rush attempts with 1-3 yards to go... Jones had 20.  Now, Barber did have 4 TD's in those 27 attempts, but after Jones took over the starting role, Barber had 2 TD's and Jones had 1.  Not really much of a difference.  Also, another sign of your lack of awareness, the Bucs didn't really sub in and out RB's during drives/series.  It's not like Leftwich/Arians were taking Jones out all of the time to put Barber in... or vice versa.  That only happened a very few times, on each side.

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9 hours ago, weepaws said:

Can I ask you a question, what do you mean pedestrian? 

How low of a ranking would that be? 

Replacement level running back.   I don’t know if just think of you ask the average football fan whether Ronald Jones is good at football or bad at football most think he’s bad 

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As far as the red zone Ronald jones has 10 attempts inside the 10 and produced 6 tds 

highly efficient on those metrics 

 

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Does anyone how to find stats on 20 yards runs from 2019?

I heard a stat Ronald Jones has more 20 yard rushes than Zeke, Aron Jones or Gurley(no surprise there) on about 50 less attempts 

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24 minutes ago, Matt Mueller said:

Does anyone how to find stats on 20 yards runs from 2019?

I heard a stat Ronald Jones has more 20 yard rushes than Zeke, Aron Jones or Gurley(no surprise there) on about 50 less attempts 

I couldn't find that. I found a top 10 list of 'explosive backs' with at least 20 carries of 10+ yards, RJ wasn't on it. I did find a more comprehensive list of advanced metrics for RB's ranked by DYAR (Defensive -Adjusted Yards Above Replacement). Ronald Jones was 23rd, which sounds about right. below is the link for that.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2019

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^ Solid list. Thanks for that. 
 

Interesting to see he graded out just above Sanders and Ekler

Im just mentioning similar players to him who people sometimes mention as being very efficient 

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6 minutes ago, Matt Mueller said:

^ Solid list. Thanks for that. 
 

Interesting to see he graded out just above Sanders and Ekler

Im just mentioning similar players to him who people sometimes mention as being very efficient 

My pleasure. I don't know about efficiency, but in Fantasy those backs (Sanders and Ekler), are much more desirable. Especially in ppr

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3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

A lot?  Barber had 27 rush attempts with 1-3 yards to go... Jones had 20.  Now, Barber did have 4 TD's in those 27 attempts, but after Jones took over the starting role, Barber had 2 TD's and Jones had 1.  Not really much of a difference.  Also, another sign of your lack of awareness, the Bucs didn't really sub in and out RB's during drives/series.  It's not like Leftwich/Arians were taking Jones out all of the time to put Barber in... or vice versa.  That only happened a very few times, on each side.

Now you're just quibbling for the sake of argument.

The bottom line is that Ronald Jones won't average 20 or more touches per game in 2020, regardless of how you try to muddy the waters with minutiae.

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1 hour ago, Matt Mueller said:

Replacement level running back.   I don’t know if just think of you ask the average football fan whether Ronald Jones is good at football or bad at football most think he’s bad 

Sorry , but I would disagree, I don’t think avg football fan would say he’s bad , I would say avg, or even above avg, but he’s no stud. I would say from what I’ve seen , most like him as a flex play. 

Seems about right. 

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

Now you're just quibbling for the sake of argument.

The bottom line is that Ronald Jones won't average 20 or more touches per game in 2020, regardless of how you try to muddy the waters with minutiae.

LOL, you made a comment that the Bucs were giving Barber the ball on short yardage.  I proved to you that the difference was insignificant and that the carries came based on who was on the field, not performance... and now I'm quibbling?  You've been wrong about every assessment of the Bucs that you tried to make.

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2 hours ago, Matt Mueller said:

Does anyone how to find stats on 20 yards runs from 2019?

I heard a stat Ronald Jones has more 20 yard rushes than Zeke, Aron Jones or Gurley(no surprise there) on about 50 less attempts 

 

1 hour ago, jrokh said:

I couldn't find that. I found a top 10 list of 'explosive backs' with at least 20 carries of 10+ yards, RJ wasn't on it. I did find a more comprehensive list of advanced metrics for RB's ranked by DYAR (Defensive -Adjusted Yards Above Replacement). Ronald Jones was 23rd, which sounds about right. below is the link for that.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2019

Jones had 6 rushes over 20 yards & 20 rushes over 10 yards.

Elliott had 4 rushes over 20 yards.

A. Jones had 5 rushes over 20 yards.

Side note: using footballoutsiders.com, Dallas had the #2 ranked OLine and #1 QB (DYAR)  Green Bay had the #5 ranked OLine and #8 QB.  Tampa had the #23rd ranked OLine and #23 ranked QB.  Tampa upgraded their OLine and substantially upgraded their QB.

With 100 more carries, Chris Carson had 8 rushes over 20 yards.  He also did that with the (not so stellar - but better), 16th ranked OLine and #4 QB.  Simply, supporting cast makes a difference.  I don't think any team upgraded as much as Tampa when it comes to offense, this past off-season.

 

In the RB DYAR link, Jones also ranked higher than Damien Williams, M. Gordon, Fournette, Connor, and Lev Bell.

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17 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

 

Jones had 6 rushes over 20 yards & 20 rushes over 10 yards.

Elliott had 4 rushes over 20 yards.

A. Jones had 5 rushes over 20 yards.

Side note: using footballoutsiders.com, Dallas had the #2 ranked OLine and #1 QB (DYAR)  Green Bay had the #5 ranked OLine and #8 QB.  Tampa had the #23rd ranked OLine and #23 ranked QB.  Tampa upgraded their OLine and substantially upgraded their QB.

With 100 more carries, Chris Carson had 8 rushes over 20 yards.  He also did that with the (not so stellar - but better), 16th ranked OLine and #4 QB.  Simply, supporting cast makes a difference.  I don't think any team upgraded as much as Tampa when it comes to offense, this past off-season.

 

In the RB DYAR link, Jones also ranked higher than Damien Williams, M. Gordon, Fournette, Connor, and Lev Bell.

I will give you credit for this: Of all the homers on this bored, and there are many, myself included, you are the undisputed King! Supreme Leader of the Homers, take a bow TB....

  • Thanks 2

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1 minute ago, jrokh said:

I will give you credit for this: Of all the homers on this bored, and there are many, myself included, you are the undisputed King! Supreme Leader of the Homers, take a bow TB....

I'm a homer because I think Tampa's RB could finish as RB15?  If I were a true "King! Supreme Leader of the Homers" wouldn't I say he would be top 3?  I do find it interesting that I'm considered a homer when I point out information from a link that YOU provided.

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I think he wants you to apologize for finding out those facts, from a site he provided. 

Knowing him , believe me , he does.  

Thanks. 

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2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

LOL, you made a comment that the Bucs were giving Barber the ball on short yardage.  I proved to you that the difference was insignificant and that the carries came based on who was on the field, not performance... and now I'm quibbling?  You've been wrong about every assessment of the Bucs that you tried to make.

Yes, you're quibbling, because the only assessment I have made is that Ronald Jones won't average 20+ touches per game in 2020.

In support of that assessment, I provided the fact that even though Jones essentially became the lead back late in 2019, he still wasn't good enough to keep the mighty Peyton Barber off the field in goalline and other short-yardage situations.  You came back with, "Yeah, ok, Barber got twice as many TDs as Jones in that stretch, but it's just because Barber was already in the game"--not even realizing that the fact that Barber was in the game in the first place is sufficient to support my position.

And even if Jones had gotten 10 TDs to Barber's 2, Jones STILL wouldn't average 20+ touches per game in 2020.  So yeah, you're quibbling.

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I'm a homer because I think Tampa's RB could finish as RB15?

It kind of goes to show that you don't REALLY believe that Jones will average 20+ touches per game this year, because if you honestly believed that, you'd have Jones finishing higher than RB15--unless of course you expect him to miss a month along the way.

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11 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Yes, you're quibbling, because the only assessment I have made is that Ronald Jones won't average 20+ touches per game in 2020.

In support of that assessment, I provided the fact that even though Jones essentially became the lead back late in 2019, he still wasn't good enough to keep the mighty Peyton Barber off the field in goalline and other short-yardage situations.  You came back with, "Yeah, ok, Barber got twice as many TDs as Jones in that stretch, but it's just because Barber was already in the game"--not even realizing that the fact that Barber was in the game in the first place is sufficient to support my position.

And even if Jones had gotten 10 TDs to Barber's 2, Jones STILL wouldn't average 20+ touches per game in 2020.  So yeah, you're quibbling.

Oh my soul, Yawn, he’s entitled to his opinion, and he’s posted his, so our you, and you’ve posted yours, now it’s time to move on. 

I see a lot of quibbling. 

 

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41 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Yes, you're quibbling, because the only assessment I have made is that Ronald Jones won't average 20+ touches per game in 2020.

In support of that assessment, I provided the fact that even though Jones essentially became the lead back late in 2019, he still wasn't good enough to keep the mighty Peyton Barber off the field in goalline and other short-yardage situations.  You came back with, "Yeah, ok, Barber got twice as many TDs as Jones in that stretch, but it's just because Barber was already in the game"--not even realizing that the fact that Barber was in the game in the first place is sufficient to support my position.

And even if Jones had gotten 10 TDs to Barber's 2, Jones STILL wouldn't average 20+ touches per game in 2020.  So yeah, you're quibbling.

Yes, you said Jones won't get 20 touches because OTHER teams don't really do it.  Well, that has nothing to do with Tampa.  Thanks for your useless assessment.

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40 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

It kind of goes to show that you don't REALLY believe that Jones will average 20+ touches per game this year, because if you honestly believed that, you'd have Jones finishing higher than RB15--unless of course you expect him to miss a month along the way.

If he gets 18 carries at an average of 4.2 yards per carry, that's 1209 yards.  I expect his receiving numbers to not be much different, so 20 or so receptions and 200 yards.  That's 1400 yards.  I think he gets about 10 TD's.... that's 220 fantasy points.  Last year that was RB15.

You see I actually do my homework.  I don't randomly throw out numbers just to throw them out.  I back up my opinions with more than 'Not uh'.

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Yes, you said Jones won't get 20 touches because OTHER teams don't really do it.  Well, that has nothing to do with Tampa.  Thanks for your useless assessment.

Axually, that has a LOT to do with Tampa.  As long as they are playing the same 60-minute games as all the other teams, with the same 11 players as all the other teams, under the same rules as all the other teams, then the following is a sound inductive argument:

1.  Very few NFL RBs average 20+ touches per game over the course of a season.  It is a feat usually reserved for elite workhorse RBs who are the centerpiece of their team's offense.

2.  Ronald Jones is not an elite workhorse RB, and he is not the centerpiece of his team's offense.

3.  Ronald Jones will not average 20+ touches per game in 2020.

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

If he gets 18 carries at an average of 4.2 yards per carry, that's 1209 yards.  I expect his receiving numbers to not be much different, so 20 or so receptions and 200 yards.  That's 1400 yards.  I think he gets about 10 TD's.... that's 220 fantasy points.  Last year that was RB15.

You see I actually do my homework.

I suppose, if you call randomly throwing out your homer fantasies "homework."  Now you've pushed Jones into even more elite status, since only 5 RBs averaged 18+ carries per game last year, and only 10 scored 10 or more TDs.

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I back up my opinions with more than 'Not uh'.

You've backed up your opinions with more of your opinions.  Your opinion that Ronald Jones will average 20+ touches this season is based on your opinion that he will have 18 carries and 1.25 receptions per game (which means you're not even particularly good with math).

I have indulged you with a sound inductive counter-argument, when most people need no more backing than my name.

You see, I'm Axe Elf.

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We will see if any of this translates because new team,  different system, better WR weapons ect but Tom Brady has generally been good for running backs on his team as far as total production 

In 2019 you had PPR White RB19, Michel 31 and Burkhead 47

In 2018 you had PPR White Rb 7 and Michel 34

In 2017 you had Dion Lewis Rb15, White 38, Burkhead 39


 

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1 hour ago, Matt Mueller said:

We will see if any of this translates because new team,  different system, better WR weapons ect but Tom Brady has generally been good for running backs on his team as far as total production 

In 2019 you had PPR White RB19, Michel 31 and Burkhead 47

In 2018 you had PPR White Rb 7 and Michel 34

In 2017 you had Dion Lewis Rb15, White 38, Burkhead 39

Average:  RB29

Looks like a banner year for Jones!

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8 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Tom Brady never played with the amount of talent that Tampa has.

Lessee...

Tampa Bay Super Bowl Appearances:  1

Tom Brady Super Bowl Appearances:  9

Homer much?

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Just now, AxeElf said:

Lessee...

Tampa Bay Super Bowl Appearances:  1

Tom Brady Super Bowl Appearances:  9

Homer much?

Ok, now I know you're just screwing around.

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Vaughn activated today from the I.R. Covid list.

I'm excited here. He's got some makeup work to do. But at some point, he's gonna grab the bull by the horns, and there's no lettin go. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Kopy said:

Vaughn activated today from the I.R. Covid list.

I'm excited here. He's got some makeup work to do. But at some point, he's gonna grab the bull by the horns, and there's no lettin go. 

 

I hope you're right.  It's been a long time since Tampa's had a RB that they can count on year in and year out to be "the guy".  That said, I don't think it'll be this year.  Arians doesn't really play rookies that much.

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Ok, now I know you're just screwing around.

Really?  When you said that a team that went to the Super Bowl NINE times is less talented than a team that went to the Super Bowl ONCE I thought YOU were the one just screwing around.

I mean, there's homer goggles, and then there's not realizing that you're even wearing them.

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11 hours ago, Kopy said:

Vaughn activated today from the I.R. Covid list.

I'm excited here. He's got some makeup work to do. But at some point, he's gonna grab the bull by the horns, and there's no lettin go. 

 

Not a judgement, but why do oh seem so excited about Vaughn. 

I see a rookie who’s behind, I don’t see him being on the field a lot until he learns to protect Brady, and I think that’s another edge, R Jones and McCoy both have over him, he’ll produce as a back up, unless Jones suffers a injury, I think. 

Thanks. 

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5 hours ago, weepaws said:

Not a judgement, but why do oh seem so excited about Vaughn. 

I see a rookie who’s behind, I don’t see him being on the field a lot until he learns to protect Brady, and I think that’s another edge, R Jones and McCoy both have over him, he’ll produce as a back up, unless Jones suffers a injury, I think. 

Thanks. 

I expect very little from Vaughn this year early on.  I actually don't expect much from him at all this year really.  Of course, if Jones misses time for any reason, then Vaughn could be forced into mix.  Ogunbowale was pretty solid pass blocking and not too bad as a receiver, so I think he and McCoy will keep Vaughn off the field.  I don't think Vaughn will see many more than 75 (80... 5 per game), total touches this year.  Next year, that's a different story.

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I suppose I should've clarified this earlier. But my excitement for Vaughn comes from a dynasty perspective. I had him as my number 4 RB predraft. Then he went to a good team, in the need of a bell cow. Only knock on Vaughn is age PERIOD! He started 4, and stayed 4.

Redraft leagues, with a f'd up covid offseason. I agree, out of the gate, it's gonna be slow for him. Also Tampa knows his team much more than us casual observer's. And I know where he's coming from. I can tell you what Seattle had for breakfast this morning. All other teams, I can only hope my opinions right. Because it has fantasy impact for me.

Just don't be surprised if by the end of the year, he's turning heads. And next year he's THE guy to own in T.B.

I want credit :) ;)

 

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2 hours ago, Kopy said:

I suppose I should've clarified this earlier. But my excitement for Vaughn comes from a dynasty perspective. I had him as my number 4 RB predraft. Then he went to a good team, in the need of a bell cow. Only knock on Vaughn is age PERIOD! He started 4, and stayed 4.

Redraft leagues, with a f'd up covid offseason. I agree, out of the gate, it's gonna be slow for him. Also Tampa knows his team much more than us casual observer's. And I know where he's coming from. I can tell you what Seattle had for breakfast this morning. All other teams, I can only hope my opinions right. Because it has fantasy impact for me.

Just don't be surprised if by the end of the year, he's turning heads. And next year he's THE guy to own in T.B.

I want credit :) ;)

 

Agreed.  For dynasty, I'd rather have Vaughn than Jones.

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I thought I would add my two cents.  I do not like R Jones, and not because of the useless McCoy.  But R Jones is not a good RB, he just isn't.  The running game in Tampa will be secondary to nonexistant, just what T Brady signed up for.  I do not see 10 TDs out of Jones, it's just not how they want to score.

I think Brady wanted the chance to go full on air style and show he could do it.  When they are close to the goal they'll have Gronk, Evans, and Brate - all sure handed large radius catch machines.  No team can double them all, and it fits Bradys strengths - figuring out the defense and the short accurate throw.

The real hidden value out of Tampa this year is Brady.  Use this information to secure an RB3 better than Jones, someone like D Montgomery or L Bell.

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44 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I thought I would add my two cents.  I do not like R Jones, and not because of the useless McCoy.  But R Jones is not a good RB, he just isn't.  The running game in Tampa will be secondary to nonexistant, just what T Brady signed up for.  I do not see 10 TDs out of Jones, it's just not how they want to score.

I think Brady wanted the chance to go full on air style and show he could do it.  When they are close to the goal they'll have Gronk, Evans, and Brate - all sure handed large radius catch machines.  No team can double them all, and it fits Bradys strengths - figuring out the defense and the short accurate throw.

The real hidden value out of Tampa this year is Brady.  Use this information to secure an RB3 better than Jones, someone like D Montgomery or L Bell.

I don’t disagree for the most part of what you said, they do have te for the red zone, they have two fantastic WRs.  

And I would also take both Bell and Montgomery at this time over Jones, and I question Jones talent on the NFL also. 

But if your talking a 12 team league, a rb3 would be in the top 36.  

And he Jones is worthy of being in the top 36, and he scored 6 tds last season, I’m not so sure he can reach 10 either , but I wouldn’t be surprised if he did.  

 

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1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I thought I would add my two cents.  I do not like R Jones, and not because of the useless McCoy.  But R Jones is not a good RB, he just isn't.  The running game in Tampa will be secondary to nonexistant, just what T Brady signed up for.  I do not see 10 TDs out of Jones, it's just not how they want to score.

I think Brady wanted the chance to go full on air style and show he could do it.  When they are close to the goal they'll have Gronk, Evans, and Brate - all sure handed large radius catch machines.  No team can double them all, and it fits Bradys strengths - figuring out the defense and the short accurate throw.

The real hidden value out of Tampa this year is Brady.  Use this information to secure an RB3 better than Jones, someone like D Montgomery or L Bell.

I don't really agree with your assessment of the running game, but you may end up being right.

I agree with Brady being hidden value.  I've seen projections, rankings, and ADP having him in the 13 to 18 range.  I can see him finishing in the top 5.  Last year, only 1 QB had more than 35 total touchdowns.  I think Brady can do that this year.  The thing that I'd caution you on though is the TE's.  Each of them have injury histories.  While I'd love for all 3 to be available for 16 games, I just don't think they will.  I think you'd have to assume that each one will miss at least 2 games each.

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33 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I don’t disagree for the most part of what you said, they do have te for the red zone, they have two fantastic WRs.  

And I would also take both Bell and Montgomery at this time over Jones, and I question Jones talent on the NFL also. 

But if your talking a 12 team league, a rb3 would be in the top 36.  

And he Jones is worthy of being in the top 36, and he scored 6 tds last season, I’m not so sure he can reach 10 either , but I wouldn’t be surprised if he did.  

 

When I referenced RB3, I was talking about the third RB on your team.  Yes, I think Jones will be in the top 36 but I think for your own team you should strive for your third RB to be in the top 25.  I think there is a big drop in ppg that happens right in that area.  For instance, in my reference mag (which unfortunately is now ppr) the #24 M Sanders was 13.8 ppr and #31 D Montgomery came in at 10.9.  That is a cliff like drop that consistently  occurs right in that area.  R Jones was #33 at 10.6 (which includes 1.9 receptions per game = 8.7 non-ppr).

In a non-ppr leagues filling the flex with a workhorse RB that can give you 12 ppg's is the goal, because the 20th ranked WR will only come in around 9 ppg.

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