Teddy Bridgewater

[cmh6476 755]

I'm doing something I haven't done in years, and that's going through and doing my own projections for each team.  I'm tired of sucking at fantasy and I'm going to see if this helps me get back to being more competitive.  And apparently I'm bored with nothing better to do.

One of the early ones that stuck out to me is how high I have Bridgewater projected.  I usually go through and project RBs and WRs and then my receiving yards for the group help me land at a yardage projection for my QBs.

 

I have McCaffrey with just over 800 receiving yards, DJ Moore at 1350, Robby Anderson at 750, Curtis Samuel at 600 and Ian Thomas at 580.  A few other guys get some nominal yardage and ended up with this as a projection for Bridgewater:

4,400 passing yards, 25 TDs, 8 INT

I haven't sorted all these out to give me rankings for all players as I'm not done yet, but I've got to think this lands him close to top 10 for all QBs.

Have I projected some of his receivers a bit too high?  Is it a stretch to think he fares that much better than his average draft position this year?

 

[AxeElf 787]

Don't worry too much about QBs; QB is the new D.  Most of them score about the same number of points on any given week, and as long as you have one that's competent, you're not going to gain or lose much ground relative to the rest of the league.

Last year, 22 QBs scored more than 16 fantasy points per game, but only 8 scored more than 20 fantasy points per game.  Bridgewater is probly in that group.  Just using the stats you gave (ignoring any rushing points he might earn), Bridgewater would have been the QB23 last season.

So you're probly in the ballpark.

[weepaws 2,460]

I see Bridgewater as a low qb2. 

[cmh6476 755]

9 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Don't worry too much about QBs; QB is the new D.  Most of them score about the same number of points on any given week, and as long as you have one that's competent, you're not going to gain or lose much ground relative to the rest of the league.

Last year, 22 QBs scored more than 16 fantasy points per game, but only 8 scored more than 20 fantasy points per game.  Bridgewater is probly in that group.  Just using the stats you gave (ignoring any rushing points he might earn), Bridgewater would have been the QB23 last season.

So you're probly in the ballpark.

I get that, but you still want to draft the better ones where possible.

[Serenity Now 44]

Despite him being a QB that doesn't thrown down field much, I think this offense is built for him to succeed. It will be all about getting the ball into their play makers hands, and seeing if they can make a something happen. CMC, Moore, Anderson and Samuel, all have incredible speed and can make an ordinary short pass into a long TD. If, as a group, they can make a couple of big plays every week, Bridgewater could be a nice fantasy start. The defense is also atrocious, so positive throwing scripts should happen often.  If I'm throwing a dart at a QB in this range, I prefer Minshew and maybe Burrow, because of their decent rushing numbers, but Bridewater is probably somewhere in the conversation.

[AxeElf 787]

7 minutes ago, cmh6476 said:

I get that, but you still want to draft the better ones where possible.

Sure, but you want to draft the ones that are being overlooked and not drafted until the double-digit rounds, but still finish solidly in the top 10--Stafford, Jones, Big Ben, Minshew, Lock, Newton--guys like that.  Bridgewater probly isn't in that group.  But hey, if you swing and miss in the draft, there are always QBs on the wire that can give you solid starts until you settle on one for the season.

The problem is when people rush to get a "top 5 QB" early in the draft, and then end up starting a RB3 and a WR3 as their RB2 and WR2.

[jrokh 569]

43 minutes ago, cmh6476 said:

I'm doing something I haven't done in years, and that's going through and doing my own projections for each team.  I'm tired of sucking at fantasy and I'm going to see if this helps me get back to being more competitive.  And apparently I'm bored with nothing better to do.

One of the early ones that stuck out to me is how high I have Bridgewater projected.  I usually go through and project RBs and WRs and then my receiving yards for the group help me land at a yardage projection for my QBs.

 

I have McCaffrey with just over 800 receiving yards, DJ Moore at 1350, Robby Anderson at 750, Curtis Samuel at 600 and Ian Thomas at 580.  A few other guys get some nominal yardage and ended up with this as a projection for Bridgewater:

4,400 passing yards, 25 TDs, 8 INT

I haven't sorted all these out to give me rankings for all players as I'm not done yet, but I've got to think this lands him close to top 10 for all QBs.

Have I projected some of his receivers a bit too high?  Is it a stretch to think he fares that much better than his average draft position this year?

 

Teddy B is a tough read for this season, new team/new coach. Plus Matt Rhule coming over from the College ranks with no pre-season. I wouldn't want to count on him as my # 1 QB. As a backup, sure.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

4 hours ago, cmh6476 said:

I'm doing something I haven't done in years, and that's going through and doing my own projections for each team.  I'm tired of sucking at fantasy and I'm going to see if this helps me get back to being more competitive.  And apparently I'm bored with nothing better to do.

One of the early ones that stuck out to me is how high I have Bridgewater projected.  I usually go through and project RBs and WRs and then my receiving yards for the group help me land at a yardage projection for my QBs.

 

I have McCaffrey with just over 800 receiving yards, DJ Moore at 1350, Robby Anderson at 750, Curtis Samuel at 600 and Ian Thomas at 580.  A few other guys get some nominal yardage and ended up with this as a projection for Bridgewater:

4,400 passing yards, 25 TDs, 8 INT

I haven't sorted all these out to give me rankings for all players as I'm not done yet, but I've got to think this lands him close to top 10 for all QBs.

Have I projected some of his receivers a bit too high?  Is it a stretch to think he fares that much better than his average draft position this year?

 

I think if you dropped all 5 of those guys by 75 yards, I think you'll be closer to reality when all is said and done.  That'll also put you in the 4000-4100 yard zone as well, which is where he'll probably end up.  With 4k yards and 25 TD's, he'll likely be around QB18... which seems about right.  I'd say around 17 points per week is reasonable.  I believe in his 6 starts he averaged around 15.5, so a tick up based on full reps is reasonable.

 

ETA:  After looking at this again, I don't see Moore getting 1350 yards.  I think you can drop him to 1150/1200 and be closer to what will happen.  Anderson you probably have about right, but dropping the other 3 by 50 seems right too.

[Ray_T 591]

2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Don't worry too much about QBs; QB is the new D.  Most of them score about the same number of points on any given week, and as long as you have one that's competent, you're not going to gain or lose much ground relative to the rest of the league.

Last year, 22 QBs scored more than 16 fantasy points per game, but only 8 scored more than 20 fantasy points per game.  Bridgewater is probly in that group.  Just using the stats you gave (ignoring any rushing points he might earn), Bridgewater would have been the QB23 last season.

So you're probly in the ballpark.

True.

in my opinion the only QB's worth drafting early in most drafts would be Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.  

as Dak has another soft schedule, he may put up good numbers again.   but dont let his numbers fool you.  hes not an elite QB.   he has beat up on some terrible defenses last year but against good ones I was less than thrilled with his production for the most part.

all the rest, regardless of how you rank them shouldnt be drafted in the first 5-6 rounds unless you are playing in a league that starts 2 QB or a superflex league.

As for Bridgewater, I dont have him ranked in my top 12.

hes a player you can wait on.  if someone else takes him high in the draft, you can target someone like Stafford (a player who usually outperforms his draft position and who nearly always puts up QB1 numbers)

if he stays healthy, he may put up a very good year by his standards.   hes a top 10 player with top 5 upside(in my opinion) and hes ranked lower on most draft boards than he should be.

I'd argue hes a better pick than Bridgewater  in most (if not all)formats.

[weepaws 2,460]

Stafford is by far a much better pick then Bridgewater. 

[Smileseers 54]

Teddy has never thrown for more than 14 Tds in a season.

He will not be on any of my teams and I do not see him as a top twenty QB.

[Vikings4ever 496]

I see next to 0 upside in Bridgewater. In a good Saints offense last year, he averaged 230 yards and 1.5 TDs a game. When I'm taking a QB2, I want a high upside one that could possibly end the season top 7 or so. The ones who will get you 230 yards and 1.5 TDs a game can be grabbed off the waiver wire when you need one.

In addition, I pretty much took Robby Anderson off my board entirely. He's at his best 50 yards downfield. Teddy's noodle arm made Carolina about the worst landing spot possible for Anderson.

I like Teddy, and wish him nothing but the best. But I just don't see him being fantasy relevant.