*** Week 1 NFL Gambling***

[listen2me 23 1,547]

I know I know no one is going to watch.  I cant kick the habit of gambling on the NFL.

HOU @ KC -9 54

Could be a wacky week to try and bet with no preseason, covid crap, and limited to no fans.  Dome teams and places like Buffalo KC or Seattle won't be as hard to play with no fans.  

[Hawkeye21 1,856]

54 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

I know I know no one is going to watch.  I cant kick the habit of gambling on the NFL.

HOU @ KC -9 54

Could be a wacky week to try and bet with no preseason, covid crap, and limited to no fans.  Dome teams and places like Buffalo KC or Seattle won't be as hard to play with no fans.  

Betting the week 1 games is always tough and even harder this year without seeing any preseason games.  I should stay away from it tonight but I'm sure I won't.  KC should win but 9.5 is a big line.

[TBayXXXVII 2,127]

I don't know what the O/U is in the Tampa/New Orleans game, but I'm guessing it won't be in the 60's, so take the over.  I'm thinking both teams will be in the 30's (or there abouts).  I'm predicting Tampa 37-31.

[Hawkeye21 1,856]

1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I don't know what the O/U is in the Tampa/New Orleans game, but I'm guessing it won't be in the 60's, so take the over.  I'm thinking both teams will be in the 30's (or there abouts).  I'm predicting Tampa 37-31.

FanDuel shows the O/U at 47.5 right now.

[TBayXXXVII 2,127]

Just now, Hawkeye21 said:

FanDuel shows the O/U at 47.5 right now.

Bet the over. 

My guess is that the line is around -4 for the Saints since they're home.  Like I said above, I think Tampa wins, but I don't doubt they could lost 34-28 or something like that, so I wouldn't bet the line.  However, I'm very confident that this game will be a shootout.

 

[Hawkeye21 1,856]

Just now, TBayXXXVII said:

Bet the over. 

My guess is that the line is around -4 for the Saints since they're home.  Like I said above, I think Tampa wins, but I don't doubt they could lost 34-28 or something like that, so I wouldn't bet the line.  However, I'm very confident that this game will be a shootout.

 

Line is at 3.5 right now.

[cmh6476 757]

weather is going to be crap tonight.  pretty much 50% chance of rain all day long in Raytown throughout game time, and temps will hover right around 60.  I think that along with the lack of preseason makes the over/ under a tough play.  I'm a homer but I'd take the Chiefs against the spread.  The Chiefs team seems to be a lot more coherent and everyone practiced in full yesterday.  Only players we are missing from last year are Breshaud Breeland (suspension) and Kendall Fuller, who was our Nickel corner and went back to the Washington football team. 

David Johnson scares me because his legs are probably fresh and Texans are likely going to want to establish the running game to help keep the Chiefs offense off the field.  Still not sold on the Texans receivers since shipping off Hopkins and with Cooks apparently nursing an injury.  Still have Fuller and Cobb and Stills so they are probably going to be fine.  For some reason I just think there will be a regression with the Texans and I think Bill O'Brien is an awful head coach and worse GM.

 

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,127]

Just now, cmh6476 said:

weather is going to be crap tonight.  pretty much 50% chance of rain all day long in Raytown throughout game time, and temps will hover right around 60.  I think that along with the lack of preseason makes the over/ under a tough play.  I'm a homer but I'd take the Chiefs against the spread.  The Chiefs team seems to be a lot more coherent and everyone practiced in full yesterday.  Only players we are missing from last year are Breshaud Breeland (suspension) and Kendall Fuller, who was our Nickel corner and went back to the Washington football team. 

David Johnson scares me because his legs are probably fresh and Texans are likely going to want to establish the running game to help keep the Chiefs offense off the field.  Still not sold on the Texans receivers since shipping off Hopkins and with Cooks apparently nursing an injury.  Still have Fuller and Cobb and Stills so they are probably going to be fine.  For some reason I just think there will be a regression with the Texans and I think Bill O'Brien is an awful head coach and worse GM.

 

 

Weather could be an equalizer, so the game could be close.  I still think the Chiefs will win, but they may not win by 10.  Now, that said, a sloppy track would neutralize speed a bit, which would favor KC.  I know Hill is a burner, but the entire WR corp in Houston is supposed to be a group of track stars.  I'd stay away from the spread and the o/u and just bet the money line on the Chiefs.

[TBayXXXVII 2,127]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Line is at 3.5 right now.

I was close!!  I wouldn't bet the spread... just the o/u.

[Hawkeye21 1,856]

2 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I was close!!  I wouldn't bet the spread... just the o/u.

Looks like it opened at 5 and got bet down to 3.5.  The public is on TB.

[cmh6476 757]

4 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Weather could be an equalizer, so the game could be close.  I still think the Chiefs will win, but they may not win by 10.  Now, that said, a sloppy track would neutralize speed a bit, which would favor KC.  I know Hill is a burner, but the entire WR corp in Houston is supposed to be a group of track stars.  I'd stay away from the spread and the o/u and just bet the money line on the Chiefs.

don't forget Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman.  There isn't a faster group of receivers in the league than what KC trots out there.

 

And I'm sure the field will be covered all day and drainage never seems to be an issue.  I don't see an issue with traction as much as we might just dealing with a wet ball, if I had to guess.

[cmh6476 757]

Cooks appears to be a game-time decision:

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/texans-brandin-cooks-a-game-time-decision-against-chiefs

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

15 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I don't know what the O/U is in the Tampa/New Orleans game, but I'm guessing it won't be in the 60's, so take the over.  I'm thinking both teams will be in the 30's (or there abouts).  I'm predicting Tampa 37-31.

I dunno. With no preseason and limited camps, I could easily see defenses dominating across the league in week 1.

[TBayXXXVII 2,127]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Looks like it opened at 5 and got bet down to 3.5.  The public is on TB.

I wouldn't have touched it at 5 or at 3.5... too much "unknown" for me in that game.  I think either team can win by double digits or by 1 point.

[Hawkeye21 1,856]

Just now, TBayXXXVII said:

I wouldn't have touched it at 5 or at 3.5... too much "unknown" for me in that game.  I think either team can win by double digits or by 1 point.

I agree.  A lot of these games are unknowns right now.  Such a strange start to the season and it will be interesting to see how the betting goes.  Totals sound like a better play for week one.

[listen2me 23 1,547]

14 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Bet the over. 

My guess is that the line is around -4 for the Saints since they're home.  Like I said above, I think Tampa wins, but I don't doubt they could lost 34-28 or something like that, so I wouldn't bet the line.  However, I'm very confident that this game will be a shootout.

 

I understand you are a Tampa fan and are optimistic and excited for Brady.  Thats natural.

But I dont get all thr Tampa love from many people.  Brady looked old at the end of last year.  Saints have a much better defense.  It isnt like Winston couldnt put up points.  

I expect thr Tampa offense to turn the ball over much less but not be as lethal as far as chunk plays.  

Maybe I am wrong.  But all this Tampa Superbowl contender talk is a bit much for me.  Did they trade for vintage Brady? No hes on his last legs.

[TBayXXXVII 2,127]

Just now, titans&bucs&bearsohmy! said:

I dunno. With no preseason and limited camps, I could easily see defenses dominating across the league in week 1.

Yeah, I don't discount that possibility, but I think the lack of fans could make it so that the offenses have easier times communicating when making changes at the line.  I think this could offset the probability of the defenses being a bit ahead.

[Hawkeye21 1,856]

1 minute ago, listen2me 23 said:

I understand you are a Tampa fan and are optimistic and excited for Brady.  Thats natural.

But I dont get all thr Tampa love from many people.  Brady looked old at the end of last year.  Saints have a much better defense.  It isnt like Winston couldnt put up points.  

I expect thr Tampa offense to turn the ball over much less but not be as lethal as far as chunk plays.  

Maybe I am wrong.  But all this Tampa Superbowl contender talk is a bit much for me.  Did they trade for vintage Brady? No hes on his last legs.

I completely understand the excitement.  This is some of the most talent Brady has had on offense.  If he gets the time to throw then he should be able to light up defenses.

[listen2me 23 1,547]

Just now, Hawkeye21 said:

I completely understand the excitement.  This is some of the most talent Brady has had on offense.  If he gets the time to throw then he should be able to light up defenses.

Again...many years in NE he didnt have a whole closet full of weapons and looked good.  Of course he has much better weapons than last year.  But if you are old you are old.  If you hit a wall you hit a wall.  Brady looked old at the end of last year.  Is Brady at 40 what going to look like Mahomes chucking all around the lot? I doubt it.  The 2 WRs wont have the stats they had with Winston.  Not that they need to....just dont get the narrative that this is a juggernaut offense now.  Winston could make mpre throws than Brady.  Just too many were to the other team.  They will be more efficient but not nearly as explosive in my opinion.

[Meglamaniac 380]

Going to take

Jags +8

Jags over 45

and will parlay the Jags +8/Over 45

Should be fun!

[cmh6476 757]

I thing Spags will have a gameplan ready to go for this one as well.  It wasn't that long ago these two matched up in the Wild Card round where the Texans jumped out to a huge lead before the Chiefs made an impressive comeback.  But if you look at how the Texans scored their points that game, this is what you would see:

1st drive, Texans hit Fuller for 37 yards on 3rd down on first set of downs.  Then a pass on first down goes to Carlos Hyde for 2 yards, Carlos Hyde for 7 yards, and then a bomb to Kenny Still for a 54 yard TD on blown coverage.

2nd score, blocked punt for a touchdown.  14-0 Texans.

Chiefs next drive stalls, they punt.  Houston drive stalls, they punt and Tyreek muffs the punt, Houston takes possession at the Chiefs 6 and proceed to score.  21-0 Texans.

There is now 2:00 minutes left in the first quarter and if you look at what the Texans did the rest of the game they scored 10 more points.  Chiefs won this one 51-31. 

Chiefs punt again on their very next possession and Texans drive and get a FG.  It's now 24-0.  So at this point from here on out, Chiefs won the game 51-7.

KC ended up going ahead 41-24 from that point before the Texans scored again in the second quarter.  Their scoring play was a 39 yard pass with 1:10 to go in the third quarter so if you went back and looked I bet it was another blown coverage.  The Chiefs then shut the Texans out in the 4th quarter.

This game appeared much closer than it actually was.  I think Texans are going to be ready to avenge this loss, but I honestly think the Chiefs are a much more talented football team and it is going to show when the two face off in less than 12 hours.  While I'm there yelling with 17k of my best friends

 

 

[Meglamaniac 380]

1 minute ago, listen2me 23 said:

Again...many years in NE he didnt have a whole closet full of weapons and looked good.  Of course he has much better weapons than last year.  But if you are old you are old.  If you hit a wall you hit a wall.  Brady looked old at the end of last year.  Is Brady at 40 what going to look like Mahomes chucking all around the lot? I doubt it.  The 2 WRs wont have the stats they had with Winston.  Not that they need to....just dont get the narrative that this is a juggernaut offense now.  Winston could make mpre throws than Brady.  Just too many were to the other team.  They will be more efficient but not nearly as explosive in my opinion.

Evans has a hammy issue and may not play Sunday

[Hawkeye21 1,856]

Just now, listen2me 23 said:

Again...many years in NE he didnt have a whole closet full of weapons and looked good.  Of course he has much better weapons than last year.  But if you are old you are old.  If you hit a wall you hit a wall.  Brady looked old at the end of last year.  Is Brady at 40 what going to look like Mahomes chucking all around the lot? I doubt it.  The 2 WRs wont have the stats they had with Winston.  Not that they need to....just dont get the narrative that this is a juggernaut offense now.  Winston could make mpre throws than Brady.  Just too many were to the other team.  They will be more efficient but not nearly as explosive in my opinion.

I don't expect them to be some amazing offense now, I just expect them to be good.  I think they're a more balanced team now.  It's very possible that Brady can't hack it and even gets hurt due to his age.  Who knows?

[listen2me 23 1,547]

Just now, Meglamaniac said:

Going to take

Jags +8

Jags over 45

and will parlay the Jags +8/Over 45

Should be fun!

Any insight on thr Jags? They look awful on paper.  They claim they arent tanking.  But they have gotten rid of players.  Didnt bother looking at a QB.  And some beef on thr Dline opted out.  They were bad vs the run last year and now are missing big bodies and traded away theit best player (campbell). 

I was going to use Colts in my survivor pool.  I know you arent picking Jags outright but your post gives me pause.  I know you are a homer so I will default to you.  I figure Jag fans cant be too optimistic that they are blinded.

[listen2me 23 1,547]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I don't expect them to be some amazing offense now, I just expect them to be good.  I think they're a more balanced team now.  It's very possible that Brady can't hack it and even gets hurt due to his age.  Who knows?

I think they win more games.  At minimum Brady creates a bettee winning culture and excitement.  They will definitely win more games.  I just dont think the offense is going to be a juggernaut.  They need to defend the pass some what.

[edjr 5,579]

Bovada is shutdown to people in non gambling states

[cmh6476 757]

1 minute ago, listen2me 23 said:

Any insight on thr Jags? They look awful on paper.  They claim they arent tanking.  But they have gotten rid of players.  Didnt bother looking at a QB.  And some beef on thr Dline opted out.  They were bad vs the run last year and now are missing big bodies and traded away theit best player (campbell). 

I was going to use Colts in my survivor pool.  I know you arent picking Jags outright but your post gives me pause.  I know you are a homer so I will default to you.  I figure Jag fans cant be too optimistic that they are blinded.

I was considering them too.  I ended up going with Buffalo against the Jets.  It's tough without a preseason to judge, but the Jags coaching staff has to know more than the casual fan I guess.  They must have just had enough with Fournette.  Maybe Fournette saw this team had no chance and just gave up, so the team decided to save money and go with what else they had to evaluate the roster in future years?  Honestly, who the hell knows.  But it is very confusing.

[Hawkeye21 1,856]

1 minute ago, edjr said:

Bovada is shutdown to people in non gambling states

I usually use 5Dimes but had to cash out.  They are changing their app or something like that and are having all residents of the US cash out.  Luckily it's now legal to bet in Iowa.

[edjr 5,579]

Just now, Hawkeye21 said:

I usually use 5Dimes but had to cash out.  They are changing their app or something like that and are having all residents of the US cash out.  Luckily it's now legal to bet in Iowa.

I can go to NH (45 mins) if I really want to bet, but I don't care that much.

[cmh6476 757]

Is it me, or does it feel like some of these teams could be really, really bad.

Jacksonville.  Washington.  The Jets.  Miami.  Do any of these teams even have a chance to finish .500?  Trevor Lawrence has to end up in Jacksonville or Washington, right?

[Meglamaniac 380]

11 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

Any insight on thr Jags? They look awful on paper.  They claim they arent tanking.  But they have gotten rid of players.  Didnt bother looking at a QB.  And some beef on thr Dline opted out.  They were bad vs the run last year and now are missing big bodies and traded away theit best player (campbell). 

I was going to use Colts in my survivor pool.  I know you arent picking Jags outright but your post gives me pause.  I know you are a homer so I will default to you.  I figure Jag fans cant be too optimistic that they are blinded.

They are going to open up the offense and see if Minshew is or isn't the guy, I believe they will throw 50 + times a game and they have a ton of talent at the Skills position.  Both Eifert and OShaq have looked great in camp and the Jags haven't had a decent threat at TE sine MLewis.  Shanault is big and fast, C Johnson is a beast and will be a redzone monster, Chark Jr has looked even better than he did in 2019 and Westbrook and Cole have played well so far as well.  Conley is the Vet leader and he had his best year as a pro last year.

 

They are also very high on the kid from N Ill, Robinson and he looks like he will start at RB with CThomas getting the pass catching duties which he is very good at.  If L4 can get 76 receptions I'd guess the Rbs this year may top 100.

Every hour of every day the emphasis has been on assignment when it comes to run defense, that was a huge problem last year as was Jack in the middle and the SS Harrison free lancing instead of sticking to assignments.

Picking up the LB from Clev and starting him at MIKE has allowed the jags to move Jack back outside to WILL, this wil lmake a HUGE difference

They faces are new, true, but I can say with certainty that this Def will be much better against the run this year.  Also this Def is MUCH faster than last years.

 

Week 1 versus Indy will be a good barometer for the rund Def as Indy has a very good OL. 

 

JMHO

[TBayXXXVII 2,127]

3 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

I understand you are a Tampa fan and are optimistic and excited for Brady.  Thats natural.

But I dont get all thr Tampa love from many people.  Brady looked old at the end of last year.  Saints have a much better defense.  It isnt like Winston couldnt put up points.  

I expect thr Tampa offense to turn the ball over much less but not be as lethal as far as chunk plays.  

Maybe I am wrong.  But all this Tampa Superbowl contender talk is a bit much for me.  Did they trade for vintage Brady? No hes on his last legs.

I think the love for Tampa is coming from the perspective that the Bucs turned the ball over 41 times last year.  The last team to turn the ball over 41 times in a season was the 0-16 Cleveland Browns in 2017... Tampa managed 7 wins last year.  Brady looked "old" with a team that had no real talent... and still won 12 games.  The Saints had a much better defense.  Over the last 8 games of the season, when Winston turned the ball over 21 times, the Bucs were 5-3 with the 8th ranked defense during that time period.  Remember, JPP missed the first 6 games last year.  That was huge for the second half, as well as personnel changes.  To note, in those last 8 games, Winston threw 2 pick-6's that lost them the Houston and Atlanta games.  They could have been 7-1.  Brady will NOT turn the ball over 32 times.

What's the definition of "chunk plays"?  Plays of 20+ yards?  Tampa did have a lot of them, yes, but they also had a lot more attempts.  Sure, Winston did have the ability to air it out, but he wasn't very accurate and he was a very poor decision maker.  Brady will be able to get those chunk plays with less attempts because he has the ability to... for Winston, it was about volume, not efficiency.

Brady won't have to carry the load in Tampa, the players will do that.  All he has to do is put the ball where it needs to be and when... players like Evans, Godwin, Gronk, Howard, and Brate will take care of the rest.

[listen2me 23 1,547]

3 minutes ago, cmh6476 said:

I was considering them too.  I ended up going with Buffalo against the Jets.  It's tough without a preseason to judge, but the Jags coaching staff has to know more than the casual fan I guess.  They must have just had enough with Fournette.  Maybe Fournette saw this team had no chance and just gave up, so the team decided to save money and go with what else they had to evaluate the roster in future years?  Honestly, who the hell knows.  But it is very confusing.

I like the Bills a lot this week.  I think Bills are going to be real good and Jets will be real bad.  Probably who I will fall back on.  Save Colts for when they get Jags at home.

I dont see how the Jets score more than 13 pts this week.  Of course home openers in Buffalo are absolutely rocking and that wont be the case this year.  

[cmh6476 757]

1 minute ago, Meglamaniac said:

They are going to open up the offense and see if Minshew is or isn't the guy, I believe they will throw 50 + times a game and they have a ton of talent at the Skills position.  Both Eifert and OShaq have looked great in camp and the Jags haven't had a decent threat at TE sine MLewis.  Shanault is big and fast, C Johnson is a beast and will be a redzone monster, Chark Jr has looked even better than he did in 2019 and Westbrook and Cole have played well so far as well.  Conley is the Vet leader and he had his best year as a pro last year.

 

They are also very high on the kid from N Ill, Robinson and he looks like he will start at RB with CThomas getting the pass catching duties which he is very good at.  If L4 can get 76 receptions I'd guess the Rbs this year may top 100.

Every hour of every day the emphasis has been on assignment when it comes to run defense, that was a huge problem last year as was Jack in the middle and the SS Harrison free lancing instead of sticking to assignments.

They faces are new, true, but I can say with certainty that this Def will be much better against the run this year.  Also this Def is MUCH faster than last years.

 

Week 1 versus Indy will be a good barometer for the rund Def as Indy has a very good OL. 

 

JMHO

Great insight, thanks

[cmh6476 757]

The other thing about the Texans to keep in mind, is that two former Chiefs are playing for the Texans in the secondary.  I think both Phillip Gaines and Eric Murray are starting.  And they both suck.

[Meglamaniac 380]

4 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

.  Save Colts for when they get Jags at home.

 

LOL

thats week 17

[cmh6476 757]

I'm thinking this first week is going to give us a sense of who is good, and who isn't.  I have this feeling teams are either going to have it this year, or won't.  And there will obviously be some upsets and surprises, but I think the survivor pools are going to be a lot easier than they seem to be right now, at least for weeks 2-5.  Just a hunch.

[edjr 5,579]

11 minutes ago, cmh6476 said:

Is it me, or does it feel like some of these teams could be really, really bad.

Jacksonville.  Washington.  The Jets.  Miami.  Do any of these teams even have a chance to finish .500?  Trevor Lawrence has to end up in Jacksonville or Washington, right?

How is that different from any other year?  The issue this year, is EVERY team will be bad for the 1st few weeks. going to take 4 to 6 weeks for them to even get their shat together.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

Just now, edjr said:

How is that different from any other year?  The issue this year, is EVERY team will be bad for the 1st few weeks. going to take 4 to 6 weeks for them to even get their shat together.

I am thinking about just going under on every game.  It's going to be preseason out there.  17-10 will be the order of the day.

[edjr 5,579]

2 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

I am thinking about just going under on every game.  It's going to be preseason out there.  17-10 will be the order of the day.

That's a good bet. I would think defenses have the advantage to start.  offenses are going to be so bad. Will be LOTS of running. Be the Patriots don't throw 20 times week 1

 

NFL odds, matchups for Week 1

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-9, 54)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5, 42)
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, 48.5)
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-6.5, 39.5)
Las Vegas Raiders at Carolina Panthers (+3, 47.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (+2, 49)
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+5.5, 42.5)
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3, 43)
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+8, 45)
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 45.5)
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (+3, 42)
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 48)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 48)
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (+3, 51.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants (+6, 46.5)
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 41)