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Serenity Now

Ekeler

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Not catching passes, getting pulled inside the five. Time to abandon ship, and try to get rb2 value before he becomes nothing more than a flex.

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I'd probably hold him for now. Very soon to give up on a guy who probably cost a late first/early second round pick. 

Also his upcoming slate looks pretty good to me.

vs KC - probably behind, will have to throw a bunch so could get way more targets.

vs CAR - terrible against the run.

@ TB - Kamara had success through the air against them, and also could be playing from behind.

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This has nothing to do with how he looked and everything to do with how he was used. I think if we had a preseason, we would have seen his adp drop. Use his schedule as a selling point, because he just played the Bengals and only had one catch and was pulled in favor Kelly for the goal line work. It’s a ball control offense that won’t score much. If he continues in this role, his ceiling is capped at low RB2 and more likely will be a flex play most weeks. If you wait another week, his value will decline tremendously. 

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I would. 

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Yeah, Josh Kelley has a good chance to end up being the best waiver wire value in Week 1 by the end of the year.  I know they won't play the Bengals every week, but a 5.0 ypc average on 12 carries and a TD is a pretty solid rookie debut.  I picked him up for $17 (of $100 FAAB) in one league myself.

Ekeler owners are definitely in trouble.

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I traded Ekler and Diggs for Golladay and Ronald Jones in a .5 PPR dynasty over the summer.    

I'm aware Jones stock has taken a hit but this is what I was concerned about with Ekler in a half point PPR

 

Hines is the new Ekler 

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Not at all time to abandon ship. Week 1 isnt some hard indicator of even the following week let alone a season. Teams adjust and tweak. You don’t think coaches will say “hey we need to get Ekeler more involved in the passing game.” etc. He got plenty of touches other people’s RBs would love to have gotten. 
 

Here’s a good exercise. When a panic sets in on a player, ask yourself how you would feel if that player has 2tds the following week. If the answer is you would feel better, relax and just play guys for the reasons you drafted them. Guys will score this week that didn’t last week. Guys will stumble who had great games last week. Coaches and teams adjust and evaluate constantly.

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19 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

Here’s a good exercise. When a panic sets in on a player, ask yourself how you would feel if that player has 2tds the following week. If the answer is you would feel better, relax and just play guys for the reasons you drafted them.

If the answer is that you would NOT feel better, then you need to re-evaluate your priorities.

Does that exercise ever separate any wheat from the chaff?  Just exactly when would you NOT feel better if someone scored 2 TDs next week?  That may not be the best criteria for hanging on to someone like J.D. McKissic, even though I definitely would feel better if he scored 2 TDs next week.

Kelley is the real deal.  Ekeler is in trouble.

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Ekeler would have had a TD, but they gave it to Kelley instead. Add that to the evidence pointing to Ekelers catching utilization being a result of Rivers, not an offensive philosophy created by the coaching staff, I believe that if someone is willing to give you draft day value, I would take it. Don't give him away, as his snap percentage was high, and he was the unquestioned lead back, but truly valuable RB work comes by catching the ball and carries inside the five, neither of those things seem to be part of the Chargers initial game plan, and the idea that coaches will do "the logical thing," is routinely a detriment and the undoing of many fantasy teams. 

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Yeah I agree, it’s not the system, it’s the Qb. 

Rivers likes to check down to his Rbs, Taylor not so much.  

 

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7 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Yeah I agree, it’s not the system, it’s the Qb. 

Rivers likes to check down to his Rbs, Taylor not so much.  

See hines for current evidence of this. Glad I drafted him. 

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56 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Does that exercise ever separate any wheat from the chaff?  Just exactly when would you NOT feel better if someone scored 2 TDs next week? 

Kelley is the real deal.  Ekeler is in trouble.

Yes it does separate. If some random 3rd string bum wr scores 2tds I don’t think he’s the next coming of Jerry Rice. He’s just a guy who scored that week, it happens and I don’t feel any different about him. Like I said, this week, guys who people pushed the panic button on can have great games and guys people think is a free RB2 out of nowhere can get 0-5. Ekeler had 19 carries...he’s fine. Kelly can be good without Ekeler being in trouble. Coaches will gameplan more targets for him, especially vs KC who allows a lot of Rb catches.

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11 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

Yes it does separate. If some random 3rd string bum wr scores 2tds I don’t think he’s the next coming of Jerry Rice. He’s just a guy who scored that week, it happens and I don’t feel any different about him.

Well, you're the only one in the world who doesn't think they would feel better about a player they were considering dropping if they knew he was going to score 2 TDs the next week.

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15 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Well, you're the only one in the world who doesn't think they would feel better about a player they were considering dropping if they knew he was going to score 2 TDs the next week.

When Kevin Ogletree scored 2 tds I didn’t rush to the wire to pick him up. He’s just a guy who scored 2 tds. I didn’t feel great about him the following week. If your star RB who had a down game week 1 scores 2Tds week 2, you would breath relief and feel great about him again. 

I know this is kind of a strange point and sounds “duh” but there’s a better point I’m trying to make that might not be coming across as well as I’d like.

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16 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

When Kevin Ogletree scored 2 tds I didn’t rush to the wire to pick him up. He’s just a guy who scored 2 tds. I didn’t feel great about him the following week. If your star RB who had a down game week 1 scores 2Tds week 2, you would breath relief and feel great about him again. 

Look, if you're going to bring up a topic, you could at least try to remember what the topic is for more than one post.

We were not talking about evaluating whether or not to pick up a player off of waivers (although I would totally pick up a player if I knew he was going to score 2 TDs the next week), nor were we talking about how you would feel about some random player AFTER he scored 2 TDs in some random week.  We were talking about the exercise you proposed regarding a disappointing player already on your roster, one you were considering dropping, and then imagining if you would feel better about him if he scored 2 TDs the next week; to wit:

1 hour ago, tanatastic said:

Here’s a good exercise. When a panic sets in on a player, ask yourself how you would feel if that player has 2tds the following week. If the answer is you would feel better, relax and just play guys for the reasons you drafted them.

My point is that when would you NOT feel better about a player you were considering dropping if you knew he was going to score 2 TDs the next week?

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7 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

 

My point is that when would you NOT feel better about a player you were considering dropping if you knew he was going to score 2 TDs the next week?

Let me clear up two points you keep bringing up that seem to be causing contention. I did not say “if you knew he would get”. I said “if he got.”, as in, week 2 happened and he got 2tds, not some psychic power telling me he’s getting 2tds lol. I also did not say the example was for “a player you were considering dropping”. I said a player you are having panic about. Semantics but in this case Panic implies you had expectations for him that he did not meet and are hoping they turn it around. A guy I would just drop is a guy I had no expectations for in the first place so if he fails I don’t panic, I just drop and move on. So anyway, semantics here I know but the details in this case seem to be causing contention. 
 

Let me try and illustrate my thoughts a different way. If scoring 2tds would alleviate any panic you had on a player, you shouldn’t panic. Here’s a real life example. I’m worried about Cam Akers. If this week they split the carries like last week but he scores 2tds, great but I am still worried about him. I won’t feel great about him just cuz he scored. Concerns with workload and splitting carries would persist, I’m still in panic about his long term viability in that backfield.
 

Now let’s flip it to Ekeler who got plenty of work. If he scores twice this week, even if Kelly plays well I’m not concerned. 

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13 minutes ago, tanatastic said:


 

Now let’s flip it to Ekeler who got plenty of work. If he scores twice this week, even if Kelly plays well I’m not concerned. 

Now if he doesn't improve on either TD's or receptions, and he posts the same exact line, you now have a player who will be listed on every fantasy site as a red flag player,  and will be  untradeable and won't be anything more than a weekly flex. If you believe in Ekeler, and think the coaching staff is going to change their game plan to involve him in the passing game and/or at the goaline, you have to be prepared to go down with the ship if that doesn't happen this week. I'm trying to avoid that risk as I don't see a ton of upside here. 

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29 minutes ago, Serenity Now said:

Now if he doesn't improve on either TD's or receptions, and he posts the same exact line, you now have a player who will be listed on every fantasy site as a red flag player,  and will be  untradeable and won't be anything more than a weekly flex. If you believe in Ekeler, and think the coaching staff is going to change their game plan to involve him in the passing game and/or at the goaline, you have to be prepared to go down with the ship if that doesn't happen this week. I'm trying to avoid that risk as I don't see a ton of upside here. 

If he has near 20 touches again I’d feel fine about him. Coaches change their gameplan every week. Sometimes they take what the defense gives them. If Kelly suddenly saw 15 carries and goal line and a couple targets and Ekeler got 5 carries and the game was remotely close for at least a half sure I’d be concerned. Don’t see that happening at all though. Also fwiw I don’t own Ekeler nor Kelly, I’m speaking purely from a FF standpoint, no bias. Very possible they get blown out this week and don’t run a lot. In this case I’d hope Ekeler sees decent targets at least.

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1 hour ago, tanatastic said:

Let me clear up two points you keep bringing up that seem to be causing contention. I did not say “if you knew he would get”. I said “if he got.”, as in, week 2 happened and he got 2tds, not some psychic power telling me he’s getting 2tds lol.

That isn't what you said.  You said, "When panic sets in on a player, ask yourself how you would feel if that player has 2tds the following week. If the answer is you would feel better, relax and just play guys for the reasons you drafted them."

So when the panic sets in--not after this weekend, when he has two TDs, but now, when you are starting to panic--ask yourself how you WOULD feel IF they have 2 TDs.  And IF you WOULD feel better, relax...  Not if you feel better after the fact.  So you're clearly talking about making yourself feel better NOW by thinking about something that could happen in the future--and my contention is that you will make yourself feel better about any player at all if you consider how you would feel if they score 2 TDs in the upcoming week.

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3 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

--and my contention is that you will make yourself feel better about any player at all if you consider how you would feel if they score 2 TDs in the upcoming week.

Nope. Here is what I wrote.

Here’s a real life example. I’m worried about Cam Akers. If this week they split the carries like last week but he scores 2tds, great but I am still worried about him. I won’t feel great about him just cuz he scored. Concerns with workload and splitting carries would persist, I’m still in panic about his long term viability in that backfield

There are multiple scenarios where I wouldn’t feel better about a player just because they scored 2tds. 

 

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9 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Yeah, Josh Kelley has a good chance to end up being the best waiver wire value in Week 1 by the end of the year.  I know they won't play the Bengals every week, but a 5.0 ypc average on 12 carries and a TD is a pretty solid rookie debut.  I picked him up for $17 (of $100 FAAB) in one league myself.

Ekeler owners are definitely in trouble.

How about Malcolm Brown?

How much value do you think he has going forward?

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37 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

Here’s a real life example. I’m worried about Cam Akers. If this week they split the carries like last week but he scores 2tds, great but I am still worried about him. I won’t feel great about him just cuz he scored. Concerns with workload and splitting carries would persist, I’m still in panic about his long term viability in that backfield.

You might not feel great about him, you might not trust him beyond that week, but if you think that he's going to score 2 TDs in the upcoming week, you DO feel better about him--and if you say you don't, you're simply lying.

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13 minutes ago, polecatt said:

How about Malcolm Brown?

How much value do you think he has going forward?

About the same he had going into Week 1.

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