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AxeElf

FFC ADP Perfect Draft? (Mid May Edition)

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Just looking at the current ADPs for a 12-team PPR draft on Fantasy Football Calculator, how would you feel about the following start to your draft?

Drafting from the 6-slot...

1.6  Travis Kelce (ADP 1.9)

2.7  Pat Mahomes (ADP 2.9)

3.6  CeeDee Lamb (ADP 4.9)

4.7  Robert Woods (ADP 4.9)

5.6  Brandon Aiyuk (ADP 5.11)

6.7  Najee Harris (ADP 7.6)

7.6  Mike Davis (ADP 7.6)

I don't really do snake drafts, and I don't usually pick QBs and TEs early, but given the RB values in the 7th round, I'd be all over that.

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5 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Just looking at the current ADPs for a 12-team PPR draft on Fantasy Football Calculator, how would you feel about the following start to your draft?

Drafting from the 6-slot...

1.6  Travis Kelce (ADP 1.9)

2.7  Pat Mahomes (ADP 2.9)

3.6  CeeDee Lamb (ADP 4.9)

4.7  Robert Woods (ADP 4.9)

5.6  Brandon Aiyuk (ADP 5.11)

6.7  Najee Harris (ADP 7.6)

7.6  Mike Davis (ADP 7.6)

I don't really do snake drafts, and I don't usually pick QBs and TEs early, but given the RB values in the 7th round, I'd be all over that.

Najee Harris available at 6.7? Zero chance 

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1 minute ago, jrokh said:

Najee Harris available at 6.7? Zero chance 

Hey, his current ADP is 7.6.

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4 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Hey, his current ADP is 7.6.

Then I question the relevance of the source 

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Just now, jrokh said:

Then I question the relevance of the source 

I'll allow it.

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I'm in agreement with jrokh here. I think you're going to find Harris going in Round 2 in most real drafts this summer. Even Mike Davis in Round 7 is way too low. I think Fantasy Calculator's ADP might be including too many pre-NFL Draft mocks in their data.

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J Robinson has an ADP right now on ffc at 2.8. 

Not a lot of stock in ffc right now.  

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4 hours ago, Mike FF Today said:

I'm in agreement with jrokh here. I think you're going to find Harris going in Round 2 in most real drafts this summer.

Yeah, but that's kind of the point about early ADPs, and why there are guys on RTSports who have probably already drafted 50 leagues--because of the spring values.

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15 hours ago, Mike FF Today said:

I'm in agreement with jrokh here. I think you're going to find Harris going in Round 2 in most real drafts this summer. Even Mike Davis in Round 7 is way too low. I think Fantasy Calculator's ADP might be including too many pre-NFL Draft mocks in their data.

well, mock drafts right now have little to no hype.  once the hype train starts rolling you wont get him this cheap.

Thats the way hype works.

It is not often a hyped up rookie blows the doors off and wins you a draft.   there are always exceptions (Zeke). but its atypical.

The guy who gets a rookie for cheap because hes not expected to make an impact until year 2 and that rookie blows the doors off..... thats the guy winning the draft if it pans out.

Not usually the guy who spends a first or second rounder on a rookie.

at the price of a first or second rounder, that player better be a top 7-10 player at his position in his rookie year.  otherwise you've wasted a high pick.

Even if hes just top 10, you want your first round pick to be better than that.   and if hes not top 10, that could be the pick that ruins your draft.

it may be fine for keeper/dynasty.  but in redraft drafting rookies in round 1+2 is usually a mistake.

There are always exceptions, but if you are doing it, do it knowing the odds are against you.

 

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It sure looks like Harris is in a situation to be worthy of a late 2nd round value as a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2, and the Alabama RBs before him add a few more probability points to his odds than most rookies possess.

I'm circling Week 15 on the calendar when the Steelers and Harris host Tennessee and Henry.  We could see 400 yards rushing...

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9 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Go do a best ball draft on MFL and then get back to us

I could do one on every site out there, but I'm not sure if they would be as provocative.

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On 5/18/2021 at 8:23 PM, AxeElf said:

1.6  Travis Kelce (ADP 1.9)

2.7  Pat Mahomes (ADP 2.9)

3.6  CeeDee Lamb (ADP 4.9)

4.7  Robert Woods (ADP 4.9)

5.6  Brandon Aiyuk (ADP 5.11)

6.7  Najee Harris (ADP 7.6)

7.6  Mike Davis (ADP 7.6)

As of today, the only movement has been:

Robert Woods is now 4.8.

Najee Harris has crept into the 6th round at 6.11.

Mike Davis is also up a few points to 7.1, probly on the basis of the Falcons NOT drafting a RB.

Everyone else remains steady...

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I hope M Davis adp and his rb ranking stays close to what it is today. N

i think he as low rb1 potential. 

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Posted (edited)
On 5/26/2021 at 8:34 PM, AxeElf said:

As of today, the only movement has been:

Robert Woods is now 4.8.

Najee Harris has crept into the 6th round at 6.11.

Mike Davis is also up a few points to 7.1, probly on the basis of the Falcons NOT drafting a RB.

Everyone else remains steady...

 

 

The ADP source I mentioned in the other thread regarding Mostert, which is actual FFPC drafts (for real $$) for the month of May (completion post NFL Draft) has M. Davis at 54 or mid-5th round.

For reference this would be RB25 sandwiched between Hunt (RB24) and Javonte Williams (RB26).

If the Falcons do not sign another RB I would assume Davis trends up from here (especially following the leg pictures which circulated heavily mid month).

L. Bell is an example of a RB that could still sign in Atl that may inject enough uncertainty to help keep a lid on Davis ADP.

I think many ADP sources weight all previous drafts as heavily as a draft that happens today meaning they lag reality sometimes in a big way for awhile especially post news. Very tough to make a realistic draft plan or glean market based relative trade values on stale ADP IMO.

Najee Harris is RB12, pick number 18 or Mid-2nd round FWIW so that's a very, very tough get for the plan

 

Woods pick 51, WR 19 so he is the one you have a chance at getting 

Edited by lesjroza

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On 5/19/2021 at 3:31 AM, AxeElf said:

Hey, his current ADP is 7.6.

No way in Hades - he'll be round 2 by August.

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6 hours ago, The Shepherd said:

No way in Hades

I didn't think I would have to take a screen shot to prove it to you, but I have no reason to lie--his current ADP was 7.6.

6 hours ago, The Shepherd said:

he'll be round 2 by August.

He's pretty much Round 2 now, but averages tend to fall behind trends.

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3 hours ago, AxeElf said:

I didn't think I would have to take a screen shot to prove it to you, but I have no reason to lie--his current ADP was 7.6.

He's pretty much Round 2 now, but averages tend to fall behind trends.

He's moving up the charts rapidly.

He's up to 6.10 on May 30

He probably will be 2nd round by the time most people do their drafts for real unless something weird happens

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Harris is already a late round two pick. 

M Davis is moving up also, darn.  

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5 hours ago, AxeElf said:

I didn't think I would have to take a screen shot to prove it to you, but I have no reason to lie--his current ADP was 7.6.

He's pretty much Round 2 now, but averages tend to fall behind trends.

 Calm down Francis no one was saying that you were laying , that poster was just stating the obvious.  

Hey I saw that the ADP for kicker M Gay of the Rams is moving on up, and I know how much you like drafting kickers early, your welcome. 

Hope this finds you healthy and filled with peace comfort and joy. 

Amen. 

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