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AxeElf

Had to Get One In Before Memorial Day

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Behold, Axe Elf's first real-money draft of the season, a $20 team in RTSports' Best-Ball Championship (Grand Prize of $50,000).

10 team snake draft, PPR scoring, start QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, Flex, TE, K, DST, 24 rounds...

QB:  Patrick Mahomes (12) 3.10; Daniel Jones (10) 11.10

RB:  Joe Mixon (10) 2.01, Chris Carson (9) 4.01, Raheem Mostert (6) 7.10, Trey Sermon (6) 8.01, Tarik Cohen (10) 14.01, Samaje Perine (10) 18.01, James White (14) 19.10, Latavius Murray (6) 20.01

WR:  Davante Adams (13) 1.10, Robert Woods (11) 5.10, Brandon Aiyuk (6) 6.01, Will Fuller (14) 9.10, Robby Anderson (13) 10.01, Amon-Ra St. Brown (9) 12.01

TE:  Evan Engram (10) 13.10, Dalton Schultz (7) 15.10, C.J. Uzomah (10) 16.01, Hayden Hurst (6) 17.10

K:  Denver Broncos (11) 23.10, San Francisco 49ers (6) 24.01

DST:  Kansas City Chiefs (12) 21.10, Minnesota Vikings (7) 22.01

NOTE:  This is not a "rate my team" post; I know how good it is.  This is a "learn from my team" post.  You're welcome.

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DOA if Rodgers doesn’t want to play. That’s some confidence, I hope they smooth it over and think there’s a good chance of it. I wonder where he would go if there was no Rodgers drama. 5?

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Ok, I got two in before Memorial Day.  I think I like this one even better (not surprising, since I had the 1.4 slot this time instead of the 1.10).  I might be a little weak at RB, though, especially if one of my top 3 go down.  I probly shoulda stuck with James White instead of the flyer on Amon-Ra St. Brown, but it's a minor criticism.

Same guys I drafted in the previous draft in black, new guys in red, and guys that were replaced by the new guys in green.

QB:  Patrick Mahomes (12) 3.4, Aaron Rodgers (13) 8.7 (Robbie Anderson), Daniel Jones (10) 12.7

RB:  Derrick Henry (13) 1.4 (Joe Mixon), Chris Carson (9) 4.7, Mike Davis (6) 6.7 (Raheem Mostert), Tarik Cohen (10) 14.7, Latavius Murray (6) 17.4

WR:  DeAndre Hopkins (12) 2.07 (Davante Adams), CeeDee Lamb (7) 5.04 (Robert Woods), Brandon Aiyuk (6) 7.04, Will Fuller (14) 9.04, Tyler Boyd (10) 10.07 (Trey Sermon), Cole Beasley (7) 13.4 (Samaje Perine), Mike Williams (7) 15.4 (James White), Amon-Ra St. Brown (9) 16.7

TE:  Robert Tonyan (13) 11.4 (Evan Engram), Dalton Schultz (7) 18.7, C.J. Uzomah (10) 19.4, Hayden Hurst (6) 20.7

K:  San Francisco 49ers (6) 23.4, Minnesota Vikings (7) 24.7 (Denver Broncos)

DST:  Kansas City Chiefs (12) 21.4, Minnesota Vikings (7) 22.7

It's like every single change was an upgrade, other than arguably Hopkins for Adams.

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What's gonna make or break this team, if Joe Mixon and Raheem Mostert can stay healthy

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Mixon and Mostert aren’t on team two. Replaced with Henry and M Davis 

i think staying healthy is key for Mixon , I like him a lot more this season than last, and I did tell those that owned him to sale high.  

Mostert won’t match 2019 even if he does indeed stay healthy, to many Rbs that can play on the team.  

 

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3 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Mixon and Mostert aren’t on team two. Replaced with Henry and M Davis 

I like team 2 better

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8 hours ago, polecatt said:

What's gonna make or break this team, if Joe Mixon and Raheem Mostert can stay healthy

I drafted Perine and Sermon to insure against that eventuality; but I agree, I think Team 2 might be stronger.

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13 minutes ago, RedzoneMonster said:

Ehh..

Can you describe the thought process that led you to the use of two "h"s instead of one (or three or more)?

But the really fascinating aspect of this post is the abbreviated ellipsis.  It's tantalizing.  Thanks for your contribution.

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I like the reach on Mahomes. Daring, you are! :)

Kidding aside, football season nears.

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46 minutes ago, DrG said:

I like the reach on Mahomes.

I'm normally not one to draft a QB early, but I have the feeling that Mahomes (and the rest of the offense, by extension) is going to do something special this year that's going to make his selection at the 3/4 turn a bargain.

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On 6/2/2021 at 8:13 PM, DrG said:

Kidding aside, football season nears.

It’s still 1/4 of a year away.

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1/6 of the year for the fantasy crew :)

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I know I'm Axe Elf, but after walking away from another Best Ball Championship PPR snake draft with the #1 QB throwing to the #1 WR, and the #2 WR behind him, even Axe Elf is a little giddy.

As long as there are RB values like Mike Davis to be had later, the zero RB thing has a lot of appeal, at least this early in the summer.  People will probably start to get clued in about Davis as we go along.  But for right now, there's a lot of flexibility in the late round drafting positions.  I toyed with the idea of maybe starting with Mixon and Harris, but then I would have been looking at something like Evans and McLaurin as my top 2 WRs--and that's even if I don't draft Mahomes at the 3rd turn!  So I think I made the right decision going WR/WR instead.

My first one was from the #10 drafting position; this one was from #9.

QB:  Patrick Mahomes (12) 3.9, Daniel Jones (10) 12.2, Ryan Fitzpatrick (9) 16.2

RB:  Chris Carson (9) 4.2, Mike Davis (6) 5.9, Raheem Mostert (6) 7.9, Trey Sermon (6) 8.2, Tarik Cohen (10) 13.9, Marlon Mack (14) 15.9

WR:  Tyreek Hill (12) 1.9, Davante Adams (13) 2.2, Kenny Golladay (10) 6.2, Will Fuller (14) 9.9, Robby Anderson (13) 10.2, Mike Williams (7) 14.2, A.J. Green (12) 19.9

TE:  Tyler Higbee (11) 11.9, Jared Cook (7) 17.9, Anthony Firkser (13) 18.2, C.J. Uzomah (10) 20.2

K:  Arizona Cardinals (12) 21.9, Minnesota Vikings (7) 24.2

DST:  Kansas City Chiefs (12) 22.2, Minnesota Vikings (7) 23.9

I was kind of targeting Thielen at 6.2, but when Golladay was still on the board, the appeal was just too great to grab him (knowing I would be targeting Daniel Jones later) to pair the Giants QB/WR stack with my Chiefs QB/WR stack.  Thielen went at 6.7.  So I dunno, Hill, Adams and Thielen would have looked pretty solid on paper, as three of last year's top 10 PPR WRs--but Golladay maybe makes more sense for my team.  I would say that Golladay's upside is approximately equal and reciprocal to Thielen's downside, though--and in a Best Ball format, you're mining for upside wherever possible.

I'm starting to wonder how these sleepers like Davis and Lamb might translate into auction values.  There's very little draft value in paying for the #1 QB in an auction, usually, but with some of the deals that are out there, it might be possible to come away with Mahomes and a pretty credible team behind him.

I'll have to give it a shot...

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Well, as I expected, the sheep are ripe for the shearing in auction leagues right now.  There are so many deep values, you can afford to pay for Mahomes.  And it's a pretty hard bullet to bite, because Mahomes is nowhere NEAR a draft value when you have to spend $25-$30 for him when guys like Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan are going for $5.  Heck, even Herbert went for less than $10... but I wanted to see what would happen "if"... so...

Here's my first auction of the year.  It literally looks like I drafted all my skill players in the first 10 rounds.  Well, maybe not Jones, Engram and Firkser--but hey, I had $7 left over.  If I coulda drafted the WAS and LAR Ds for $1 more than they went ($3 and $4, respectively) I would have THIS team with THOSE defenses and $0 remaining!

10 team PPR Draft Master $20 league...

QB:  Patrick Mahomes (12) $26, Daniel Jones (10) $1

RB:  Aaron Jones (13) $34, Chris Carson (9) $18, Mike Davis (6) $17, Melvin Gordon (11) $9, Nyheim Hines (14) $1

WR:  CeeDee Lamb (7) $20, Robert Woods (11) $17, Adam Thielen (7) $16, Kenny Golladay (10) $12, Brandon Aiyuk (6) $5, Will Fuller (14) $5

TE:  Robert Tonyan (13) $5, Evan Engram (10) $1, Anthony Firkser (13) $1

K:  Arizona Cardinals (12) $1, Minnesota Vikings (7) $1

DST:  Chicago Bears (10) $1, Minnesota Vikings (7) $1

Remaining:  $7

The only sticky wicket is having two of my three TEs with the same bye, but it was either Firkser or Uzomah for my third, and Uzomah shared the Week 10 bye with Engram, so it was kind of six to one, half-dozen to the other.  And by that time I should be winning by way more points than a TE scores in a week, anyway...

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I'm assuming it was you Axe Elf but I could be wrong. Just finished a best ball draft on Yahoo and one of the teams drafting was Axe Elf. So was that you? Man, any good rb's seem to get gobbled up and disappear real quick.  Even with 1 pt. per reception the backs.surely go quicker than the receivers.  I'm sure that there's more good reliable WR's than there are RB's. I have done a few there and some of my teams I thought were pretty good and that I had drafted good but  my weekly and season projections were abysmal,lol. Oh well, at least I don't.have to fool with setting a lineup each week.

 

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1 hour ago, DocNiner said:

I'm assuming it was you Axe Elf but I could be wrong. Just finished a best ball draft on Yahoo and one of the teams drafting was Axe Elf. So was that you? Man, any good rb's seem to get gobbled up and disappear real quick.  Even with 1 pt. per reception the backs.surely go quicker than the receivers.  I'm sure that there's more good reliable WR's than there are RB's. I have done a few there and some of my teams I thought were pretty good and that I had drafted good but  my weekly and season projections were abysmal,lol. Oh well, at least I don't.have to fool with setting a lineup each week.

LOL!  Yeah, coincidentally enough, that WAS me... sort of.

I was curious if Yahoo had opened their private cash leagues yet, since those are my favorite (no rake!), and thought I would see what their best ball drafts were like this year.  I'd done one free one last year, but didn't really like them much.  So I signed up for a free one today, and then did a few other things while waiting for it to fill.  I just assumed there would be some kind of notification when the league was filled and the draft was starting, but by the time I noticed it had started, it was already in the third round!

The autodrafter had already taken Barkley for me at 1.5 instead of the Zeke I would have chosen myself, and then it picked Diggs for me in the second round, where I would have selected Davante Adams.  I joined the draft just in time to watch it take Keenan Allen for me in the third, so no Mahomes either.

So since it was already someone else's team, and nothing like an expertly-drafted Axe Elf team, I just abandoned it to autodraft the rest of the team, too.  So it was me, but it really wasn't ME.

One thing I don't like about these Yahoo best ball drafts is that you can't go back and look at the draft itself for analysis.  You can see the rosters, but you don't know when any particular player was picked.

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I don't know if you have ever heard of Hofstadter's Law, named for Douglas Hofstadter who created it in his book, "Godel, Escher, Bach," but it goes like this:  "It always takes longer than you think, even when you take Hofstadter's Law into account."

I suspected that a 12-team managed league auction would go quite a bit differently than the 10-team best-ball auctions I have done thus far, but at this point, I think I can put on paper Axe Elf's Law:  "It's quite a bit more different than you think, even when you take Axe Elf's Law into account."

Obviously, more teams mean higher demand for players, especially premium players.  Not having to pre-cover byes and the ability to manage depth during the season means even more demand for premium players.  But I figured I could at least get Mahomes, Henry and Lamb, and let the chips fall from there.  Mahomes went smoothly enough; I snapped him up for $28 on his first-round nomination (I had budgeted him for $30)--and Josh Allen later went for $33!  But Lamb also came out early, and several people wanted him, and while I had hoped to secure his services for under $25, I ended up paying $31 for him!  That's the 9th-highest price that was paid for a WR, so basically ended up getting no discount on my "bargain" WR.  And when Henry was nominated, I was prepared to pay $55, maybe upwards of $60 for him, but when he climbed toward the mid-$60s, I had to let him go for $63.

So yeah, I kind of found the limit to drafting Mahomes.  Spending for him hasn't really hurt me in the best-ball snake and auction drafts I've done--but in this managed league auction, it cost me.  If I had hitched my wagon to Daniel Jones for $4, I probably could have drafted Henry--or at least been able to snag another $15-$20 WR.  I was absolutely steaming when Adam Thielen went for $14, but at that point I still thought maybe I could swing both Golladay and Brandin Cooks behind Lamb--and Thielen shares a Week 7 bye with Lamb--but then Golladay went for $24, leaving me only $3 for Cooks--if I wanted to pay $1 for all the rest of my players.  (And then I went and loaded up my bench with Week 7 byes anyway, lol.)

Funny thing is, I could have drafted Cooks for $3, but my timing was bad.  There was another team that had a $3 max bid, and a couple rounds later, he nominated Cooks himself for the full $3--and it got through!  There were several other players with more money, but I guess none of them thought Cooks was worth $4.  If I had been the one to nominate Cooks for $3, I would have been the one who got him--but I was just trying to wait it out until more people were almost out of money.  Of course, if I had blown my wad on Cooks, I wouldn't have been able to land Jared Cook at TE or handcuff Chris Carson with Penny, so I guess it's all good.  I'd probably like the team a little better with Cooks instead of Hilton/Williams as my WR3, but then I'd probly have someone like Tarik Cohen or Marlon Mack for my RB5 instead of Penny, and maybe Anthony Firkser instead of Jared Cook.

So I'm not entirely pleased with this first effort, but there's lots of team management to be done between now and the Championship game.

QB:  Patrick Mahomes (12) $28, Matt Ryan (6) $1

RB:  Aaron Jones (13) $45, Chris Carson (9) $35, Mike Davis (6) $22, Rashaad Penny (9) $2, Latavius Murray (6) $1

WR:  CeeDee Lamb (7) $31, Kenny Golladay (10) $24, T.Y. Hilton (14) $1, Mike Williams (7) $1, Gabriel Davis (7) $1

TE:  Jared Cook (7) $2, C.J. Uzomah (10) $1

K:  Matt Prater (12) $1

DST:  Los Angeles Rams (11) $4

REMAINING:  $0

For the record, this is a 12-team PPR league, with 1 pt. per 20 yards passing instead of 25, start 2RB/2WR/1Flex.

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After taking a couple of weeks off to produce The Best Backyard Fireworks Show Anyone Has Ever Seen, I returned to the auction room today to do another $125 league in the same format as the one directly above--and I got essentially the same team.  lol

QB:  Patrick Mahomes (12) $27, Matt Ryan (6) $3

RB:  Najee Harris (7) $45, Chris Carson (9) $34, Mike Davis (6) $24, Nyheim Hines (14) $2, Rashaad Penny (9) $1

WR:  CeeDee Lamb (7) $28, Kenny Golladay (10) $17, Brandon Aiyuk (6) $10, Gabriel Davis (7) $1, Amon-Ra St. Brown (9) $1

TE:  Jared Cook (7) $2, C.J. Uzomah (10) $1

K:  Younghoe Koo (6) $2

DST: Kansas City Chiefs (12) $1

REMAINING:  $0

I think I like this one just a little better due to having Aiyuk as my WR3 instead of Hilton--assuming the Aaron Jones for Najee Harris tradeoff is at least a push.  It still hurts to draft Mahomes in an auction, but I'm satisfied with these teams--especially with a full season of league management yet to come...

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Like the first one better, I like L Murray and M Williams. Also like the Rams def over KC. 

And I have great news, I’m here all season long to help you manage all your teams needs, so don’t worry 😎

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I should note that this site pays 1 pt per 20 yards passing, rather than the typical 1 pt per 25 yards passing--so Mahomes' 6000 yards passing this season will earn people 240 points on most sites--but 300 points for my RTSports teams.

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If Mahomes is to have a career year, he will need 3 things:

Hill to have good health as he often gets dinged up

Hardman to have a breakout which I certainly think is possible

Robinson as the WR3 needs to cut down his drops. He’s a not so sneaky flex play this year. He dropped some gimme td passes last year

The Rams are in a tough division. Not so sure their D is a great pick.

 

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1 hour ago, DrG said:

If Mahomes is to have a career year, he will need 3 things:

I agree; though I would cite a different 3 things:

He has to have the talent to do so--CHECK--and the ability to use it; e.g. he must stay healthy to use his talent.

He has to have the motivation to use his talent to its potential--losing the last Super Bowl stung--CHECK!  (The Chiefs' Kingdom motto this year is "Take It Back!", despite the odd use of the word KINGdom when they're the CHIEFS--it should be a Chiefdom--but I digress...)

He maybe din't NEED this, but he got it, and it certainly can't hurt--an upgraded Offensive Line--CHECK--and boy howdy.

I still maintain that the Super Bowl wasn't lost because of the pressure Mahomes was under due to a weakened offensive line.  It wasn't.  The Super Bowl was lost because Chiefs receivers kept dropping the passes that Mahomes was still miraculously delivering right off their collective face masks.  Mahomes was good enough; the receivers (including Kelce and the RBs) collectively let him down that day.

But the Chiefs believed it was the reason, and so they went out in the offseason and built an iron wall in front of Mahomes.  NOW imagine how good he will be!

Yeah, the receivers will have to not let him down again, but I think they are collectively good enough to not do that on the reg--and hopefully not at the most crucial moments of the season.  And that brings us back to...

1 hour ago, DrG said:

Robinson as the WR3 needs to cut down his drops. He’s a not so sneaky flex play this year. He dropped some gimme td passes last year

I'm not even sure Robinson will end up as the WR3, per se.  When the chips are down, Byron Pringle could be all the production of a Sammy Watkins, without the spotty injury history.

1 hour ago, DrG said:

The Rams are in a tough division. Not so sure their D is a great pick.

Not so sure that much has changed from last year for them in that regard, but they do play against the NFC North, which means games against a possibly Rodgersless Packers, a probably rudderless Lions, and a prime time Sunday Night Football home game with the quarterbackless Bears for opening weekend.  They come back in Week 2 against a Colts team that may still be adjusting to a new QB, and they go on to play against the rest of the AFC South division this season too, which means games against Houston and Jacksonville as well.

I just din't think they deserved to be sold for $3.

And even if they suck through the first two weeks, I don't really care... it's kind of straining at gnats.  The defensive scoring at RTSports is such that pretty much any team is going to get you between 4 and 8 points most weeks, with the occasional random TD added on.  So you can do about as well streaming matchups as you can starting the best D in the league week to week.

And for that reason, yeah, back to $1 for the Chiefs D in my second effort.

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2 hours ago, DrG said:

If Mahomes is to have a career year, he will need 3 things:

Hill to have good health as he often gets dinged up

Hardman to have a breakout which I certainly think is possible

Robinson as the WR3 needs to cut down his drops. He’s a not so sneaky flex play this year. He dropped some gimme td passes last year

The Rams are in a tough division. Not so sure their D is a great pick.

 

Think Hardman should be an upgrade over Watkins. 

 

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Pringle could be the guy ahead of Robinson. Robinson stood out to me as a guy who dropped too many over the regular season.

 

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YAY!  Yahoo Private Cash Leagues are open!  Lowest rake on the net (2%)!  So it cost me $40.80 to enter a 10 team auction league offering $200 for 1st, $100 for 2nd, $50 for 3rd, and another $50 for the most points scored in the regular season.  Of course, I like my Yahoo leagues with a twist, so this one is a Superflex league starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 Flex, and 1 Superflex (no K or D).

I knew I wouldn't be able to afford Mahomes in this setup, but the league only awards normal QB pts (1 pt per 25 yds, 4 pts per TD), so there's no real premium on the position like there is at RTSports--and when you start 2 QBs, your average QB score regresses to the mean anyway.  So I settled for 4 QBs for a total of $31 (there were 4 individual QBs that sold for $31 or more) instead of trying to get a stud.  I figured between the Superflex demand on QBs and the 3 extra flex positions, most drafters were going to run out of money early--and it worked like a charm.

So after bagging Zeke early on at what seemed like an entirely reasonable price of $39 (which turned out to be tied with Kamara for the 5th-highest RB behind CMC ($50), Cook ($46), Henry ($44) and Taylor ($43), I went through a period of buyer's remorse and sat tight for a while, as none of my usual targets were being nominated.  So I had like $130 of my $200 budget left when everyone else was under $50--and I purchased 11 of the 30 players nominated between #85 and #114 in the nomination order.  So it basically looks like I picked my whole team (other than Zeke and the QBs, I suppose) in Rounds 3-7 of a snake draft.  lol

I should have the best depth and balance in the league, if I can just keep everyone healthy.  (usual half-PPR scoring)

QB:  Matt Ryan (6) $11, Daniel Jones (10) $10, Jameis Winston (6) $6, Ryan Fitzpatrick (9) $4

RB:  Ezekiel Elliott (7) $39, Chris Carson (9) $20, Mike Davis (6) $15, Raheem Mostert (6) $11, Trey Sermon (6) $9

WR:  CeeDee Lamb (7) $16, Mike Evans (9) $12, Robert Woods (11) $12, Kenny Golladay (10) $12, Brandon Aiyuk (6) $10, Brandin Cooks (10) $3, Mike Williams (7) $3, Tyler Boyd (10) $3

TE:  Evan Engram (10) $2

REMAINING:  $2

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I don't really listen to Sirius or XM--or these guys' show--but I just started a slow (4 hour clock) 14 team, 16 round PPR Best Ball draft on RTSports for the next Colton & the Wolfman show.  Jeff Paur is in it too.  Token $20 entry fee.

I'm smack in the middle of the order; Pick #8 out of 14--so no Henry for me.

This should be the link to the GUEST DRAFT BOARD if you want to follow along.

EDIT:  1.8 As might be expected, the top half-dozen RBs and one bust (Taylor) were off the board in the first 7 picks, so I turned to the #1 WR, Tyreek Hill.

EDIT:  2.7 I was really kind of hoping to see a bunch of the premium WRs fall before my pick, but with drafters ahead of me picking committee-based RBs like there was no tomorrow, there they all were staring me in the face--Adams, Ridley, Metcalf, Jefferson, and Brown--with Mahomes the next name on the list.  Do you know how tempting it was to start a 14 team PPR draft with Hill and Adams?  Or Hill and Ridley?  Or Hill and Jefferson?  Oh BOY was that tempting.  But with this 1 pt per 20 yards passing, Mahomes' 6000 yard season--worth 240 fantasy points on most sites--would be worth 300 to me on this site.  So if there was one thing I HAD to do in this draft, it was to come away from it sporting Patrick Mahomes.  Besides, my first round pick was Hill--and Mahomes sure wasn't going to last another 14 picks.  So it's Zero RB for me through two rounds--but it's Mahomes to Hill FTW as I added the #1 QB to go with the #1 WR--Patrick Mahomes.  (I think this is what they call being "Homer Invested.")

EDIT:  3.8 I was hoping against hope that Chris Carson might make it back to me, but with only Miles Sanders and Josh Jacobs left on the RB player list ahead of him, and half the league yet to get their 2nd RB, each with two picks before this one, I was pretty sure he wouldn't, and he didn't; he went with the last pick in the 2nd.  The fourth name on the list among RBs was Mike Davis, so I was hoping a little more realistically that he might be there to be my RB1--and he was--but a couple of picks before I came up, I started thinking...  20 RBs are off the board.  Davis might be a top 15 back, but more likely settle into the 15-20 range somewhere--so it would be really difficult for him to perform as a true RB1, even in a 14 team league, and even under the best of circumstances.  And besides, Davis has a Week 6 bye, which conflicts with my hopes of scoring the Mostert/Sermon combo later (or even Latavius Murray).  So I did something I wouldn't normally do in the 5th round of any other draft:  I selected Darrell Henderson.  Hey, right now, he's the unquestioned bellcow RB for a potent offense, the loss of Akers will mean defenses will key on the passing game, and Akers would have been a first round pick--so Henderson represents my best chance (longshot though it may be) of drafting a low-end RB1 here at pick 35.  And it's a $20 draft, and it's to be analyzed on a radio talk show--so Axe Elf might as well give 'em something to talk about.  At least the Rams din't panic and hold RB tryouts immediately; hopefully anyone they sign at this point will just be for Henderson insurance.

EDIT:  4.7 I came five slots away from nabbing CeeDee Lamb to back up Tyreek Hill, but I never had any realistic expectation that he would reach me (especially when the team that picks right before me is named, "Now you Cee Dee, Now You Don't").  Woods was way gone, of course, now that the Akers news has made him an even more visible top 10 candidate.  So I went with my third choice for a WR2--Kenny Golladay.  A top-10 performer when last he played, he's now paired with the highest-rated deep passer in the NFL, so my passing game is banging for a 14-teamer:  two top 10 WRs, including the #1 overall WR, and the #1 overall QB (who happens to be on the same NFL team as the #1 overall WR).

EDIT:  5.8 I really wanted to address the RB issue here.  I really did.  But then when I saw another one of last year's top 10 WRs still on the board--well, it has to be a good thing to have three top 10 WRs in a 14 team PPR league, right?  So I drafted Adam Thielen.  Now I can change my team name to "More than A. Thielen."

EDIT:  6.7 Well, I am tickled pink.  Even though I couldn't bring myself to pass up Thielen at 5.8, I was experiencing a LOT of buyer's remorse--because I was pretty sure that choice had cost me any shot I had at having a decent RB2.  Being a best-ball league, my plan was to try to draft both Mostert and Sermon to serve as my virtual RB2, but the way RBs were falling, I was pretty sure that I would have to use my 5th and 6th round picks to do it--and I wasn't even sure that whichever one I didn't take at 5.8 would still be there at 6.7--so even that strategy represented a pretty substantial risk of being left with one of them and not the other.  Drafting at the ends of the rounds are a much better draft position from which to attempt such a maneuver than right smack dab in the middle of a 14 team draft order.  So anyway, by taking Thielen, I did maximize the "zero RB" philosophy of maximizing your advantage at other positions, but it probly meant that I wasn't going to get both Mostert and Sermon--should I just be content with one of them, or look at other options?  The best RB option on the board, in my opinion, was Damien Harris, who appears to be poised for a breakout season in New England--but he was the third RB on the board at the time I picked Thielen (Chase Edmonds and David Johnson being the other two), and there were TWO OTHER TEAMS that only had 1 RB so far who would pick TWICE before I was up again.  So there's no way in hell I'm getting Damien Harris, right?  That suspicion was all but confirmed when two picks after I picked Thielen, a team that already had THREE RBs picked Edmonds.  Seriously?  Now I'm just hoping Mostert makes it back to me.  Next guy (a 1 RB guy) takes Johnson.  The top RB on the board has to make it past 10 more picks, including another 1 RB team (twice) before I pick again.  The 1 RB team at the turn takes Fournette and Tee Higgins.  Two picks later a guy with 2 RBs times out and gets autodrafted Sutton, so that helps too.  Juju...  OBJ... one pick to go!  Maybe Harris will make it back to me after all...!  ...And then the guy right in front of me picks....  Mostert!  YAY!  And just like that, I add another "DH" to my backfield--Damien Harris.  (I should try to draft a team sometime that has Derrick Henry, Darrell Henderson and Damien Harris--and call the team the Designated Hitters.)   Parenthetically, the guy right after me picks Sermon.  So I nab Harris, sandwiched between the Mostert and Sermon picks, at the very limit of where I thought both of them would be available.  It's almost as ironic as me calling THIS statement "parenthetically," even though it's not in parentheses, while the statement just before it WAS parenthetical--but it also displays the draft acumen that gives Axe Elf a perennial advantage.

Starters after 6 rounds:  Patrick Mahomes, Darrell Henderson, Damien Harris, Tyreek Hill, Kenny Golladay, Adam Thielen.

In a 14 team league, every team has weaknesses.  Mine is obviously at RB.  But I still think I've managed to get a low-end RB1 and a low-end RB2 for a 14 teamer, supported by the best passing game in the league by a mile--the #1 fantasy QB in a pass-friendly scoring system, throwing to the #1 fantasy WR, plus two more top 10 fantasy WRs?  Fuhgeddaboudit.

EDIT:  7.8 With RB as my weakest starting position, it seemed reasonable to start at RB when building depth.  I strongly considered Nyheim Hines with this pick, because he represents a pretty solid "floor" in the Best Ball format, with 9 games last season in double-digit fantasy points (and 4 games over 17 fantasy points)--but I'm afraid he might lose a little production (and especially TDs) this year in a more crowded backfield--and he would share a Week 14 bye with Damien Harris.  That might not be such a concern in most leagues--a lot can happen by Week 14, what with waivers and trades and all--but in a draft-only league with a short bench like this one (16 player roster), I can't really afford to have two of my 4-5 RBs and WRs sharing byes with each other.  But there aren't a lot of better options; all the RBs left on the board now are pretty much the minor members of a committee somewhere--Hines, McKissic, Singletary, Edwards...  The only minor member of a committee that has a reasonable chance of becoming the lead member of his committee (and the highest-ranked remaining RB) is James Conner, who is now reunited with his position coach from the Steelers who last coached Conner in 2018, the year he posted 1470 yards and 13 TDs (with 55 receptions).  He also has a Week 12 bye, which doesn't conflict with Henderson or Harris.  So I picked James Conner.

EDIT:  8.7 I don't really have any RB or WR targets here that wouldn't be there in the next round or two (I don't think), so with 15 QBs already off the board, and six of the seven teams that pick twice before my next turn having only 1 QB so far, I felt it was time to back up Patrick Mahomes.  If you've been following this thread, you probly know who I picked--the QB6 from Week 8 on in 2019, the highest-rated deep passer in the NFL, and the QB of another of my top 10 WRs--Daniel Jones, to complete the Double-Stuffed Double-Stack of Mahomes to Hill and Jones to Golladay!  I could have two top 5 QBs stacked with two top 5 WRs, if everything goes well--and if so, it doesn't matter who my RBs are.

EDIT:  9.8 With 43 RBs off the board at this point, and the back end of the order having 3 teams that only have 2 RBs so far, I needed to pick a 4th RB here.  As I suspected I might be, I'm in a position to draft last year's RB34 here, which makes me glad I passed on Mike Davis earlier in the draft because of his Week 6 bye--this guy also has a Week 6 bye.  This guy also plays on a team where the passing game is currently a dumpster fire, so I think he carries some upside to his top-35 status--especially if Kamara gets hurt.  For my RB4, I take Latavius Murray.

EDIT:  10.7 Okay, I finally took my first real snipe of the draft.  I had my sights set on Tyler Higbee with this pick, and I was starting to feel pretty good about getting him with only a few picks to go.  And the guy right before me picks Higbee.  Rats.  So I went with plan B, the only WR the Saints have for a while, Tre'Quan Smith.  Surely he has to outperform this draft position as the 49th WR off the board.

So with 6 rounds to go, my 2 QBs, 4 RBs and 4 WRs are set.  I'm looking at drafting 3 TEs, 2 Ks, and a D from here on.

EDIT:  11.8 The only skill positions I have left to fill are the 3 TEs, and the best TE on the board at this point was Evan Engram (whose QB is also on my team--bonus!).  Engram seems to be getting no love this year, despite being the TE15 last year with only 1 TD.  Add 4 TDs and Engram would have been the TE7 last year (and including the associated points for receptions and yardage on those 4 TDs, would have landed somewhere in the TE3-TE6 range).  Now that they have Rudolph to handle the boring underneath routes, they'll be able to put Engram's 4.42 speed to use more as a downfield receiver.

EDIT:  12.7 I was starting to worry about another snipe, as I was targeting either Anthony Firkser or Jared Cook here--but then the guy two picks ahead of me took Cook, so I was down to my first choice only, with the guy who sniped Higbee from me yet to pick.  But he had picked another TE last round too, and so I got my targeted TE2, Anthony Firkser.

EDIT:  13.8 You guessed it...  the last top 10 TE on the board is mine!  Last year's TE6 in PPR points per game (and the recipient of Joe Burrow's first NFL TD pass)--C.J. Uzomah.

EDIT:  14.7 I was kind of intending to get my defense first, since I'm only planning to get one of them--but when the Falcons K was still available with four Ks picked in the back half of the order ahead of me (and none picked in the top half of the order to come), I went that direction instead--Atlanta Falcons K (they use team Kickers in Best Ball formats).

EDIT:  15.8 Gotta have a 2nd K in Best Ball, or you start out in a 50 point hole relative to the teams who do have 2.  As another long-range, high-volume dome Kicker in a solid offense (like the Falcons K), I was really surprised to see the Arizona Cardinals K on the board for my penultimate pick.

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Just found out the show details for the league tracked above, in case you want to listen/call in:  Tuesday, July 27, 2021, 10:00pm - Midnight EDT on SiriusXM 87 Sports Talk Radio.

1-888-963-2682

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CJ U will be waiting for you. Whether it is Newton or Jones I think Wild Bill is going to run the snot out of the ball in 2021

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2 hours ago, DrG said:

CJ U will be waiting for you. Whether it is Newton or Jones I think Wild Bill is going to run the snot out of the ball in 2021

CJ U?

Yeah, I don't think the passing game will be much to speak of in New England, so Harris should get work.

But who or what is CJ U?

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1 hour ago, nobody said:

Probably uzomah

Ohhh... Yeah.  lol

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I notice I don't see any TreQuan Smith investments.  Benches too small?

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16 minutes ago, nobody said:

I notice I don't see any TreQuan Smith investments.  Benches too small?

I have him on 2 of my 9 BBC teams so far--the ones with the 24 player rosters.  They may just be teams I din't bother to post.  That will probly increase with the news about Michael Thomas.  But yeah, I do try to fill my smaller teams with top 10 players instead.

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18 hours ago, AxeElf said:

I have him on 2 of my 9 BBC teams so far--the ones with the 24 player rosters.  They may just be teams I din't bother to post.  That will probly increase with the news about Michael Thomas.  But yeah, I do try to fill my smaller teams with top 10 players instead.

Where do you think TreQuan is going to be?  You obviously didn't fill out your roster with top 10 players.  Top 30?

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T Smith is going to be a wr3 by the time I draft late August, at least I hope so. 

🤓

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On 6/13/2021 at 9:24 PM, AxeElf said:

QB:  Patrick Mahomes (12) 3.9, Daniel Jones (10) 12.2, Ryan Fitzpatrick (9) 16.2

RB:  Chris Carson (9) 4.2, Mike Davis (6) 5.9, Raheem Mostert (6) 7.9, Trey Sermon (6) 8.2, Tarik Cohen (10) 13.9, Marlon Mack (14) 15.9

WR:  Tyreek Hill (12) 1.9, Davante Adams (13) 2.2, Kenny Golladay (10) 6.2, Will Fuller (14) 9.9, Robby Anderson (13) 10.2, Mike Williams (7) 14.2, A.J. Green (12) 19.9

TE:  Tyler Higbee (11) 11.9, Jared Cook (7) 17.9, Anthony Firkser (13) 18.2, C.J. Uzomah (10) 20.2

K:  Arizona Cardinals (12) 21.9, Minnesota Vikings (7) 24.2

DST:  Kansas City Chiefs (12) 22.2, Minnesota Vikings (7) 23.9

This WR/WR/QB start from mid-June is looking pretty hawt right now.

Don't forget to listen to Colton & the Wolfman tonight!

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Looks like that was a rookie league.  

 

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Well, I just drafted my first Best Ball Championship team without Patrick Mahomes in my 10th BBC attempt overall (and it was in the 5000th BBC contest as well--and we all know what 5000 x 10 is, right--$50,000!!!).  In fact, this is the first of the 17 teams I have drafted on RTSports (where they have the QB-premium scoring of 0.05 pts per yard passing) without Patrick Mahomes.  You just can't get him in the middle of the third round any more (even in 10-teamers like these); he fell at 3.1.

And I was so excited about my Zeke/Jones start, too.  Getting Zeke at 1.7 was Christmas in July, and Jones lasting to 2.4 was like having your birthday on New Year's.  And then I had to watch my sweetheart walk away with someone else on Valentine's Day.  I could easily have drafted 2 of the top 5 RBs this year; hopefully my QB trio can collectively stay within sight of Mahomes, or it will all be for naught.  I also employed the 5-TE strategy in honor of BBC #5000 (and after having both Higbee and Engram sniped three and one picks ahead of me in the 12th and 14th rounds, respectively).

QB:  Justin Herbert (7) 7.7, Matt Ryan (6) 11.7, Daniel Jones (10) 12.4

RB:  Ezekiel Elliott (7) 1.7, Aaron Jones (13) 2.4, Mike Davis (6) 5.7, Damien Harris (14) 9.7, Tarik Cohen (10) 14.4

WR:  Robert Woods (11) 3.7, CeeDee Lamb (7) 4.4, Kenny Golladay (10) 6.4, Robby Anderson (13) 8.4, Brandin Cooks (10) 10.4, Mike Williams (7) 13.7, Amon-Ra St. Brown (9) 18.4

TE:  Anthony Firkser (13) 15.7, Adam Trautman (6) 16.4, C.J. Uzomah (10) 17.7, Zach Ertz (14) 19.7, O.J. Howard (9) 21.7

K:  Arizona Cardinals (12) 20.4, Minnesota Vikings (7) 23.7

D/ST:  Denver Broncos (11) 22.4, Minnesota Vikings (7) 24.4

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I axually did this analysis a couple of drafts (and days) ago, but I didn't have time to write up the results until now.  I think it can still be instructive.

At the time of the analysis, I had drafted 19 fantasy football teams so far this preseason.  9 of them were 24-player rosters (the RTSports BBCs), 3 of them were 20-player rosters (RTSports auction Draft Masters), 3 of them were 18 player rosters (Yahoo Multiflex+Superflex managed auction leagues), and 4 of them were 16 player rosters (3 RTSports High Stakes managed auction leagues and 1 Colton & the Wolfman 14-team Best Ball snake draft).  And of course all of them are money leagues, from $20 to $250.

To those 19 teams, I have drafted almost 400 players (391), an average of 20.6 players per roster.  I have drafted 80 different unique players to those 391 roster slots, but the 30 players that I have on 5 or more teams account for almost 300 (293) of those 400 (391) players (74.9%).  This means that for every one of my 20-player rosters, 15 of those 20 players appear on at least 4 more of my teams.  For every one of my 24-player BBCs, 18 of those 24 players appear on at least 4 more of my teams.

That's a pretty highly focused and undiversified portfolio, which is of course the best investment strategy--when you are right.  (And I'm Axe Elf, so...)  I'm pretty amazed that I have been able to consistently snag so many of my targets so many times in the ten snake drafts I've done--although they're getting harder and harder to get at the ADPs that made them such values six weeks ago.

I axually kind of think that the wave has crested in terms of the pros and cons of early drafting--the upside being that you can get some amazing draft values earlier in the summer, but the downside being that you have to make it through the injury minefield of training camp and preseason.  And that's kind of where we are right now, 6 weeks before opening Sunday--the draft values are starting to normalize, but injury season is just starting.  My highly undiversified portfolio is less vulnerable to injuries in that I am depending on fewer studs to stay healthy, but also more vulnerable to the extent that an injury to one or two of my key players could essentially end my season.

By position, I have drafted 52 QBs.  That's 2.7 per team, and 13.3% of all my drafted players.  40 (76.9%) of my QBs are Daniel Jones (on 17 of 19 teams), Patrick Mahomes (on 16 teams) or Ryan Fitzpatrick (7).  QBs I wish I had more of:  Matt Ryan (on 4 teams) and Kirk Cousins (2).  Both are fairly cheap, but they are the QB11 and QB12, respectively, from last year.  I also managed to get only one share of Aaron Rodgers during the holdout scare a couple of months ago.  Worst QB picks:  Cam Newton (2), Jameis Winston (2) and Jared Goff (1).  I mean, they're all like 3rd QBs on my teams, but they're my QBs with the biggest questions.

(I've added 2 Jones, 2 Ryans and 1 Cousins in 2 drafts since this analysis was completed.)

I have drafted 102 RBs; 5.4 per team, and 26.1% of all my drafted players.  76 (74.5%) of my RBs are Chris Carson (14), Raheem Mostert (13), Mike Davis (11), Joe Mixon (10), Trey Sermon (8), Nyheim Hines (7), Tarik Cohen (7) or Latavius Murray (6).  I got a lot of that Mostert/Sermon combo early on in the best ball leagues (and they should be fire in that format), but it's getting a lot harder to execute that RB double-draft these days.  RBs I wish I had more of:  Derrick Henry (3), Ezekiel Elliott (1), Aaron Jones (2), Damien Harris (1), Travis Etienne (1) and Darrell Henderson (1).  Henry and Zeke have the best chances of being the #1 fantasy performer this year, but they are hard to get in both snake and auction formats.  I've had my eye on Etienne through his career at Clemson, and his upside is literally sky high.  He could be the next CMC, if he's given the same kind of touch volume.  Worst picks:  J.D. McKissic (1), James White (3) and Marlon Mack (1).

(I have added 1 Jones, 1 Zeke, 1 Carson, 1 D.Harris, 1 Cohen and 2 Davis since this analysis was completed.)

I have drafted 125 WRs; 6.6 per team, and 32.0% of all my drafted players.  91 (72.8%) of them are Kenny Golladay (14), Brandon Aiyuk (13), CeeDee Lamb (12), Amon-Ra St. Brown (11), Robert Woods (10), Mike Williams (10), Adam Thielen (8), Will Fuller (8) or Brandin Cooks (5).  Lamb, Woods, Golladay and Thielen all have top 10 potential, with Aiyuk, Williams and Cooks all potential top 20 candidates as well.  WRs I wish I had more of:  Robby Anderson (4), Tyreek Hill (3), Tre'Quan Smith (3).  More Mahomes/Hill stacks would be nice.  Worst picks:  DeVante Parker (1), Cole Beasley (1) and A.J. Green (1).

(I have added 1 Thielen, 1 Aiyuk, 1 Anderson, 2 Woods, 2 Lamb, 2 Golladay, 2 Cooks, 2 Williams, and 2 Amon-Ra St. Brown since this analysis was completed.)

I have drafted 55 TEs; 2.9 per team, and 14.1% of all my drafted players).  49 (89.1%) of them are C.J. Uzomah (15), Evan Engram (8), Jared Cook (8), Robert Tonyan (6), Anthony Firkser (6) or Dalton Schultz (6).  TE I wish I had more of:  Tyler Higbee (3).  He seems like a 100-target lock.  Worst picks:  Dalton Schultz (6) and Hayden Hurst (2).

(I have added 1 Higbee, 1 Engram, 1 Firkser and 1 Uzomah since this analysis was completed.)

I have drafted 29 Ks; 1.5 per team, and 7.4% of all my drafted players).  20 (69.0%) of them are the Arizona Cardinals (11) or Minnesota Vikings (9).  They're both dome kickers for effective offenses.  K I wish I had more of:  Atlanta Falcons (4).  Another dome kicker for an effective offense.  Worst picks:  Denver Broncos K (1) and Green Bay Packers K (1).

(I have added 1 Cardinals and 1 Vikings since this analysis was completed.)

I have drafted 28 Ds; 1.5 per team, and 7.2% of all my drafted players).  17 (60.7%) of them are the Minnesota Vikings (9) or the Kansas City Chiefs (8).  Ds I wish I had more of:  Los Angeles Rams (2), Washington Football Team (2), New England Patriots (2).  Worst picks:  Chicago Bears D/ST (3) and Tennessee Titans D/ST (1).

(I have added 1 Patriots and 1 Vikings since this analysis was completed.)

So overall, about 1/3 of the players I have drafted have been WRs, 1/4 of all the players I have drafted have been RBs, with equal shares of 1/7 QBs, 1/7 TEs, and 1/7 Ks & Ds (51% Ks and 49% Ds).

I wonder what the numbers will look like after 6 more weeks of drafting (and injuries).

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